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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

The behaviour of 39 pesticides in surface waters as a function of scale

A portion of applied pesticides runs off agricultural fields and is transported through surface waters. In this study, the behaviour of 39 pesticides is examined as a function of scale across 14 orders of magnitude from the field to the ocean. Data on pesticide loads in streams from two US Geological Survey programs were combined with literature data from field and watershed studies. The annual load as percent of use (LAPU) was quantified for each of the fields and watersheds and was used as the normalization factor across watersheds and compounds. The in-stream losses of each pesticide were estimated for a model stream with a 15 day travel time (similar in characteristics to the upper Mississippi River). These estimated in-stream losses agreed well with the observed changes in apparent LAPU values as a function of watershed area. In general, herbicides applied to the soil surface had the greatest LAPU values and minimal in-stream losses. Soil-incorporated herbicides had smaller LAPU values and substantial in-stream losses. Insecticides generally had LAPU values similar to the incorporated herbicides, but had more variation in their in-stream losses. On the basis of the LAPU values of the 39 pesticides as a function of watershed area, a generalized conceptual model of the movement of pesticides from the field to the ocean is suggested. The importance of considering both field runoff and in-stream losses is discussed in relation to interpreting monitoring data and making regulatory decisions.

Hydrological Processes

Global occurrence of tellurium-rich ferromanganese crusts and a model for the enrichment of tellurium

Hydrogenetic ferromanganese oxyhydroxide crusts (Fe-Mn crusts) precipitate out of cold ambient ocean water onto hard-rock surfaces (seamounts, plateaus, ridges) at water depths of about 400 to 4000 m throughout the ocean basins. The slow-growing (mm/Ma) Fe-Mn crusts concentrate most elements above their mean concentration in the Earth’s crust. Tellurium is enriched more than any other element (up to about 50,000 times) relative to its Earth’s crustal mean of about 1 ppb, compared with 250 times for the next most enriched element. We analyzed the Te contents for a suite of 105 bulk hydrogenetic crusts and 140 individual crust layers from the global ocean. For comparison, we analyzed 10 hydrothermal stratabound Mn-oxide samples collected from a variety of tectonic environments in the Pacific. In the Fe-Mn crust samples, Te varies from 3 to 205 ppm, with mean contents for Pacific and Atlantic samples of about 50 ppm and a mean of 39 ppm for Indian crust samples. Hydrothermal Mn samples have Te contents that range from 0.06 to 1 ppm. Continental margin Fe-Mn crusts have lower Te contents than open-ocean crusts, which is the result of dilution by detrital phases and differences in growth rates of the hydrogenetic phases. Correlation coefficient matrices show that for hydrothermal deposits, Te has positive correlations with elements characteristic of detrital minerals. In contrast, Te in open-ocean Fe-Mn crusts usually correlates with elements characteristic of the MnO 2 , carbonate fluorapatite, and residual biogenic phases. In continental margin crusts, Te also correlates with FeOOH associated elements. In addition, Te is negatively correlated with water depth of occurrence and positively correlated with crust thickness. Q-mode factor analyses support these relationships. However, sequential leaching results show that most of the Te is associated with FeOOH in Fe-Mn crusts and ≤10% is leached with the MnO 2 . Thermodynamic calculations indicate that Te occurs predominantly as H 5 TeO 6 − in ocean water. The speciation of Te in ocean water and charge balance considerations indicate that Te should be scavenged by FeOOH, which is in agreement with our leaching results. The thermodynamically more stable Te(IV) is less abundant by factors of 2 to 3.5 than Te(VI) in ocean water. This can be explained by preferential (not exclusive) scavenging of Te(IV) by FeOOH at the Fe-Mn crust surface and by Fe-Mn colloids in the water column. We propose a model in which the extreme enrichment of Te in Fe-Mn crusts is likely the result of an oxidation reaction on the surface of FeOOH. A similar oxidation process has been confirmed for Co, Ce, and Tl at the surface of MnO 2 in crusts, but has not been suggested previously to occur in association with FeOOH in Fe-Mn crusts. Mass-balance considerations indicate that ocean floor Fe-Mn deposits are the major sink for Te in the oceans. The concentration and redox chemistry of Te in the global ocean are likely controlled by scavenging on Fe-Mn colloids in the water column and Fe-Mn deposits on the ocean floor, as is also the case for Ce.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Transect across the West Antarctic rift system in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

In 1994, the ACRUP (Antarctic Crustal Profile) project recorded a 670-km-long geophysical transect across the southern Ross Sea to study the velocity and density structure of the crust and uppermost mantle of the West Antarctic rift system. Ray-trace modeling of P- and S-waves recorded on 47 ocean bottom seismograph (OBS) records, with strong seismic arrivals from airgun shots to distances of up to 120 km, show that crustal velocities and geometries vary significantly along the transect. The three major sedimentary basins (early-rift grabens), the Victoria Land Basin, the Central Trough and the Eastern Basin are underlain by highly extended crust and shallow mantle (minimum depth of about 16 km). Beneath the adjacent basement highs, Coulman High and Central High, Moho deepens, and lies at a depth of 21 and 24 km, respectively. Crustal layers have P-wave velocities that range from 5.8 to 7.0 km/s and S-wave velocities from 3.6 to 4.2 km/s. A distinct reflection (PiP) is observed on numerous OBS from an intra-crustal boundary between the upper and lower crust at a depth of about 10 to 12 km. Local zones of high velocities and inferred high densities are observed and modeled in the crust under the axes of the three major sedimentary basins. These zones, which are also marked by positive gravity anomalies, may be places where mafic dikes and sills pervade the crust. We postulate that there has been differential crustal extension across the West Antarctic rift system, with greatest extension beneath the early-rift grabens. The large amount of crustal stretching below the major rift basins may reflect the existence of deep crustal suture zones which initiated in an early stage of the rifting, defined areas of crustal weakness and thereby enhanced stress focussing followed by intense crustal thinning in these areas. The ACRUP data are consistent with the prior concept that most extension and basin down-faulting occurred in the Ross Sea during late Mesozoic time, with relatively small extension, concentrated in the western half of the Ross Sea, during Cenozoic time.

Tectonophysics

Spatial and temporal diving behavior of non-breeding common murres during two summers of contrasting ocean conditions

Successful foraging of marine predators depends on environmental conditions, which also influence prey availability. Neutral or negative El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation ocean conditions during the summer of 2013 and strongly positive conditions during the summer of 2015 in the northern California Current System provided a case study to evaluate a marine predator's response to anomalously warm conditions. We used satellite transmitters with saltwater switches to track movements and estimate dive behavior among non-breeding common murres (Uria aalge) off Oregon prior to and during a marine heatwave. We quantified differences in space-use between years, applied linear mixed models to determine environmental influences (e.g. sea surface temperature, surface salinity, chlorophyll a, ocean depth, and calendar date) on dive frequency and dive duration, and contrasted dive activity between time of day, year, and sexes. The majority of birds dispersed away from capture locations, which were situated near the southern range limit of their population. In both years, murres used the Salish Sea and the Columbia River plume; however, murres spent more time foraging in the Columbia River plume and in continental slope habitat during the marine heatwave of 2015. During 2015, dive frequency was reduced, and dive durations were almost twice as long during daytime indicating deeper or more dispersed prey. Increased dive frequency was positively associated with temperature, chlorophyll a, and crepuscular periods. Cluster analysis of dive activity and the top-ranked predictive dive duration model revealed associations between longer-duration dives and decreased dive frequency, marine slope habitat, and cooler ocean temperatures. Murres were relatively inactive throughout the night and we found no sex differences in dive activity. Changes in common murre foraging tactics were associated with ocean warming and revealed selectivity in spatial and temporal use of foraging habitats. Productive marine features including the Columbia River plume provided refuge for murres during apparently poor ocean conditions associated with the marine heatwave. Identifying refuge areas used by highly mobile species experiencing varying ocean conditions is critical for adaptive marine spatial planning that can accommodate a changing ocean climate.

California

Using the stream salmonid simulator (S3) to assess juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production under historical and proposed action flows in the Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The production of Klamath River fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in northern California and southern Oregon is thought to be limited by poor survival during freshwater juvenile life stages, in part a result of Ceratonova shasta —a highly infectious disease that can lead to high fish mortality. Higher flushing river flows are thought to affect the concentration of C. shasta spores, and in turn, juvenile salmon infection and mortality. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model was built to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon from spawning through migration to the Pacific Ocean in response to river flow, habitat availability, water temperature, and C. shasta spore concentrations. The S3 model has been calibrated to juvenile fall Chinook salmon abundances at a trap site within the Klamath River, and was specifically designed to provide objective predictions of juvenile salmon abundance and survival in relation to proposed flow management alternatives and resulting fish infection and mortality by C. shasta . Infection by C. shasta in the Klamath River is location specific, occurring in a “disease zone” with high spore concentrations. The spatial extent of this disease zone (from river kilometer 289.6 to 212.9) has been incorporated in the S3 model for the Klamath River, enabling the assessment of disease effects on fish at specific spatial locations such as the trap sampling sites, and for fish that were or were not exposed to the disease zone as they emigrate the Klamath River to the Pacific Ocean. Given the information gained from field observations on spore concentrations in relation to river flow, deliberations by resource managers resulted in the incorporation of springtime flushing flows in a Proposed Action (PA) scenario developed in part to lower spore concentrations within the disease zone. A Historical (HI) scenario based on the observed flows, temperatures, and spore concentrations from 2004 to 2016 was used to compare and contrast the potential benefits to juvenile salmon from PA flows in relation to the HI conditions.

California

Wave driven cross shore and alongshore transport reveal more extreme projections of shoreline change in island environments

Coastal erosion, intensified by sea level rise, poses significant threats to coastal communities in Hawaiʻi and similar island communities. This study projects long-term shoreline change on the Hawaiian Island of O‘ahu using the data-assimilated CoSMoS-COAST shoreline change model. CoSMoS-COAST models four key shoreline processes: (1) Alongshore transport, (2) Recession due to sea level rise, (3) Cross-shore transport due to waves, and (4) Residual processes represented by a linear trend term. This study marks the first application of CoSMoS-COAST for an oceanic equatorial island with narrow beaches and a dynamic wave climate. The model is informed with a novel combination of shoreline data derived from high-resolution imagery from Planet, Sentinel-2, and Landsat satellites, wave-climate hindcasts specific to Hawai‘i, and regional beach-slope surveys. On a dynamic northern Oʻahu beach, the model achieved a root mean square error of 9.4 m between observations and model output. CoSMoS-COAST predicts that 81% of O‘ahu’s sandy beach coastline could experience beach loss by 2100; with 39.8% of this loss happening by 2030. This represents an increase, 43.3%, in net landward shoreline change compared to previous erosion forecasts, for 0.3 m of sea level rise (2050). Additionally, dynamic processes such as cross-shore equilibrium processes and alongshore sediment transport, play a large contribution to gross shoreline change within the next decade, particularly on O ‘ahu’s north and west shores. In the long term, we find that recession due to sea level rise and residual processes dominate, but dynamic, wave-driven processes (longshore and cross-shore transport) still account for 34% of shoreline change between present and 2100. We assert dynamic, wave-driven processes are a crucial addition for accurate modeling of island sandy beach environments. These findings have implications for O‘ahu’s coastal planning and development, suggesting updates to shoreline policies that rely upon erosion forecasting, and highlights the importance of incorporating wave and alongshore transport in erosion models for other Pacific islands.

Hawaii

Effects of lowering interior canal stages on salt-water intrusion into the shallow aquifer in southeast Palm Beach County, Florida

Land in southeast Palm Beach County is undergoing a large-scale change in use, from agricultural to residential. To accommodate residential use, a proposal has been made by developers to the Board of the Lake Worth Drainage District to lower the canal stages in the interior part of the area undergoing change. This report documents one of the possible effects of such lowering. Of particular interest to the Board was whether the lower canal stages would cause an increase in salt-water intrusion into the shallow aquifer along the coast. The two main tools used in the investigation were a digital model for aquifer evaluation and an analytical technique for predicting the movement of the salt-water front in response to a change of ground-water flow into the ocean. The method of investigation consisted of developing a digital ground-water flow model for three east-west test strips. They pass through the northern half of municipal well fields in Lake Worth, Delray Beach, and Boca Raton. The strips were first modeled with no change in interior canal stages. Then they were modeled with a change in canal stages of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.6 metres). Also, two land development schemes were tested. One was for a continuation of the present level of land development, simulated by continuing the present pumpage rates. The second scheme was for land development to continue until the maximum allowable densities were reached, simulated by increasing the pumping rates. The results of the test runs for an east-west strip through Lake Worth show that lowering part of the interior canal water levels 3 feet (1.0 metre), as done in 1961, does not affect the aquifer head or salt-water intrusion along the coastal area of Lake Worth. As a result, no effect in the coastal area would be expected as a result of canal stage lowering in other, interior parts of the study area. Results from the other test runs show that lowering interior canal water levels by as much as 4 feet (1.2 metres) would result in some salt-water intrusion for either land development scheme. Salt-water intrusion is dependent on the location, and amount of water withdrawn, from well fields.

Florida

Complex mean circulation over the inner shelf south of Martha's Vineyard revealed by observations and a high-resolution model

Inner-shelf circulation is governed by the interaction between tides, baroclinic forcing, winds, waves, and frictional losses; the mean circulation ultimately governs exchange between the coast and ocean. In some cases, oscillatory tidal currents interact with bathymetric features to generate a tidally rectified flow. Recent observational and modeling efforts in an overlapping domain centered on the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) provided an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal complexity of circulation on the inner shelf. ADCP and surface radar observations revealed a mean circulation pattern that was highly variable in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Nested modeling incrementally improved representation of the mean circulation as grid resolution increased and indicated tidal rectification as the generation mechanism of a counter-clockwise gyre near the MVCO. The loss of model skill with decreasing resolution is attributed to insufficient representation of the bathymetric gradients (Δh/h), which is important for representing nonlinear interactions between currents and bathymetry. The modeled momentum balance was characterized by large spatial variability of the pressure gradient and horizontal advection terms over short distances, suggesting that observed inner-shelf momentum balances may be confounded. Given the available observational and modeling data, this work defines the spatially variable mean circulation and its formation mechanism—tidal rectification—and illustrates the importance of model resolution for resolving circulation and constituent exchange near the coast. The results of this study have implications for future observational and modeling studies near the MVCO and other inner-shelf locations with alongshore bathymetric variability.

Massachusetts

Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth׳s largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium–thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

Deep Sea Research Part A, Oceanographic Research P

Undeveloped and developed phases in the centennial evolution of a barrier-marsh-lagoon system: The case of Long Beach Island, New Jersey

Barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments protect mainland population centers and infrastructure from storm impacts, support biodiversity, and provide long-term carbon storage, among other ecosystem services. Despite their socio-economic and ecological importance, the response of coupled barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise is poorly understood. Undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon systems typically respond to sea-level rise through the process of landward migration, driven by storm overwash and landward mainland marsh expansion. Such response, however, can be affected by human development and engineering activities such as lagoon dredging and shoreline stabilization. To better understand the difference in the response between developed and undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise, we perform a local morphologic analysis that describes the evolution of Long Beach Island (LBI), New Jersey, over the last 182 years. We find that between 1840 and 1934 the LBI system experienced landward migration of all five boundaries, including 171 meters of shoreline retreat. Between the 1920s and 1950s, however, there was a significant shift in system behavior that coincided with the onset of groin construction, which was enhanced by beach nourishment and lagoon dredging practices. From 1934 to 2022 the LBI system experienced ~22 meters of shoreline progradation and a rapid decline in marsh platform extent. Additionally, we extend a morphodynamic model to describe the evolution of the system in terms of five geomorphic boundaries: the ocean shoreline and backbarrier-marsh interface, the seaward and landward lagoon-marsh boundaries, and the landward limit of the inland marsh. We couple this numerical modeling effort with the map analysis during the undeveloped phase of LBI evolution, between 1840 and 1934. Despite its simplicity, the modeling framework can describe the average cross-shore evolution of the barrier-marsh-lagoon system during this period without accounting for human landscape modifications, supporting the premise that natural processes were the key drivers of morphological change. Overall, these results suggest that anthropogenic effects have played a major role in the evolution of LBI over the past century by altering overwash fluxes and marsh-lagoon geometry; this is likely the case for other barrier-marsh-lagoon environments around the world.

New Jersey

I. Thermal evolution of Ganymede and implications for surface features. II. Magnetohydrodynamic constraints on deep zonal flow in the giant planets. III. A fast finite-element algorithm for two-dimensional photoclinometry

The work is divided into three independent papers: PAPER I: Thermal evolution models are presented for Ganymede, assuming a mostly differentiated initial state of a water ocean overlying a rock layer. The only heat sources are assumed to be primordial heat (provided by accretion) and the long-lived radiogenic heat sources in the rock component. As Ganymede cools, the ocean thins, and two ice layers develop, one above composed of ice I, and the other below composed of high-pressure polymorphs of ice. Subsolidus convection proceeds separately in each ice layer, its transport of heat calculated using a simple parameterized convection scheme and the most recent data on ice rheology. The model requires that the average entropy of the deep ice layer exceed that of the ice I layer. If the residual ocean separating these layers becomes thin enough, then a Rayleigh-Taylor-like ("diapiric") instability may ensue, driven by the greater entropy of the deeper ice and merging the two ice mantles into a single convective layer. This instability is not predicted by linear analysis but occurs for plausible finite amplitude perturbations associated with large Rayleigh number convection. The resulting warm ice diapirs may lead to a dramatic "heat pulse" at the surface and to fracturing of the lithosphere, and may be directly or indirectly responsible for resurfacing and grooved terrain formation on Ganymede. The timing of this event depends rather sensitively on poorly known rheological parameters but could be consistent with chronologies deduced from estimated cratering rates. Irrespective of the occurrence or importance of the heat pulse, we find that lithospheric fracturing requires rapid stress loading (on a timescale ≾ 10 4 ) years). Such a timescale can be realized by warm ice diapirism, but not directly by gradual global expansion. In the absence of any quantitative and self-consistent model for the resurfacing of Ganymede by liquid water, we favor resurfacing by warm ice flows,which we demonstrate to be physically possible, a plausible consequence of our models, compatible with existing observations, and a hypothesis testable by Galileo. We discuss core formation as an alternative driver for resurfacing, and conclude that it is less attractive. We also consider anew the puzzle of why Callisto differs so greatly from Ganymede, offering several possible explanations. The models presented do not provide a compelling explanation for all aspects of Ganymedean geological evolution, since we have identified several potential problems, most notably the apparently extended period of grooved terrain formation (several hundred million years), which is difficult to reconcile with the heat pulse phenomenon. PAPER II: The observed zonal flows of the giant planets will, if they penetrate below the visible atmosphere, interact significantly with the planetary magnetic field outside the metalized core. The appropriate measure of this interaction is the Chandrasekhar number Q = ( H 2 )/(4πρνα 2 λ) (where H = radial component of the magnetic field, ν = eddy viscosity, λ = magnetic diffusivity, α -1 = lengthscale on which λ varies); at depths where Q ≳ 1 the velocity will be forced to oscillate on a small lengthscale or decay to zero. We estimate the conductivity due to semiconduction in H 2 (Jupiter, Saturn) and ionization in H 2 O (Uranus, Neptune) as a function of depth; the value λ ≃ 10 10 cm 2 s -1 needed for Q = 1 is readily obtained well outside the metallic core (where λ ≃ 10 2 cm 2 s -1 ). These assertions are quantified by a simple model of the equatorial zonal jet in which the flow is assumed uniform on cylinders concentric with the spin axis, and the viscous and magnetic torques on each cylinder are balanced. We solve this "Taylor constraint" simultaneously with the dynamo equation to obtain the velocity and magnetic field in the equatorial plane. With this model we reproduce the widely differing jet widths of Jupiter and Saturn (though not the flow at very high or low latitudes) using ν = 2500 cm 2 s -1 , consistent with the requirement that viscous dissipation not exceed the specific luminosity. A model Uranian jet consistent with the limited Voyager data can also be constructed, with appropriately smaller ν, but only if one assumes a two-layer interior. We tentatively predict a wide Neptunian jet. For Saturn (but not Jupiter or Uranus) the model has a large magnetic Reynolds number where Q = 1 and hence exhibits substantial axisymmetrization of the field in the equatorial plane . This effect may or may not persist at higher latitudes. The one-dimensional model presented is only a first step. Variation of the velocity and magnetic field parallel to the spin axis must be modeled in order to answer several important questions, including: 1) What is the behavior of flows at high latitudes, whose Taylor cylinders are interrupted by the region with Q ≳ 1? 2) To what extent is differential rotation in the envelope responsible for the spin-axisymmetry of Saturn's magnetic field? PAPER III: It is shown that the problem of two-dimensional photoclinometry (PC) -- the reconstruction of a surface z ( x , y ) from a brightness image B( x , y ) -- may be formulated in a natural way in terms of finite elements. The resulting system of equations is underdetermined as a consequence of the lack of boundary conditions for z , but a unique solution may be chosen by minimizing a function S expressing the "roughness" of the surface. An efficient PC algorithm based on this formulation is presented, requiring ~ 10.66 (four-byte) memory locations and ~10 4 floating multiplications/additions per pixel, and incorporating: 1) Minimization of the roughness by the penalty method, which yields the smallest set of equations. 2) Iterative solution of the nonlinear equations by Newton's method. 3) Solution of the linearized equations by an inner iterative cycle of successive over-relaxation, which takes advantage of the extreme sparseness of the system. 4) Multigridding, in which the solutions to the smaller problems obtained by reducing the resolution are used recursively to greatly speed convergence at the higher resolutions, and 5) A rapid noniterative initial estimate of z obtained by exploiting the special symmetry of the equations obtained in the first linearization. The algorithm is extensively demonstrated on 200 by 200 pixel synthetic "images" generated from digital topographic data for northern Utah over a range of phase angles. Rms error in the solution is ~ 22 m, out of ~ 660 m total relief. The error is dominated by "stripes" with the same azimuth as the light source, resulting from use of the roughness criterion in lieu of boundary conditions; the rms error along profiles parallel to the stripes is only ~ 2-8 m, depending on the phase angle. Satisfactory solutions are obtained even in the presence of quantization error, noise, and moderate blur in the image. Applications of the PC algorithm to both remote sensing and photomicrography are sketched; a photoclinometric map of a low-relief Precambrian era fossil is presented as an example of the latter. Prospects for dealing with photometrically inhomogeneous surfaces, and an extension of the method to the analysis of side-looking radar data ("radarclinometry") are also discussed.

Thesis

Thermal evolution of a differentiated Ganymede and implications for surface features

Thermal evolution models are presented for Ganymede, assuming a mostly differentiated initial state of a water ocean overlying a rock layer. The only heat sources are assumed to be primordial heat (provided by accretion) and the long-lived radiogenic heat sources in the rock component. As Ganymede cools, the ocean thins, and two ice layers develop, one above composed of ice I, and the other below composed of high-pressure polymorphs of ice. Subsolidus convection proceeds separately in each ice layer, its transport of heat calculated using a simple parameterized convection scheme and the most recent data on ice rheology. The model requires that the average entropy of the deep ice layer exceeds that of the ice I layer. If the residual ocean separating these layers becomes thin enough, then a Rayleigh-Taylor-like (“diapiric”) instability may ensue, driven by the greater entropy of the deeper ice and merging the two ice mantles into a single convective layer. This instability is not predicted by linear analysis but occurs for plausible finite amplitude perturbations associated with large Rayleigh number convection. The resulting warm ice diapirs may lead to a dramatic “heat pulse” at the surface and to fracturing of the lithosphere, and may be directly or indirectly responsible for resurfacing and grooved terrain formation on Ganymede. The timing of this event depends rather sensitively on poorly known rheological parameters, but could be consistent with chronologies deduced from estimated cratering rates. Irrespective of the occurrence or importance of the heat pulse, we find that lithospheric fracturing requires rapid stress loading (on a time scale ⪅10 4 years). Such a time scale can be realized by warm ice diapirism, but not directly by gradual global expansion. In the absence of any quantitative and self-consistent model for the resurfacing of Ganymede by liquid water, we favor resurfacing by warm ice flows, which we demonstrate to be physically possible, a plausible consequence of our models, compatible with existing observations, and a hypothesis testable by Galileo. We discuss core formation as an alternative driver for resurfacing, and conclude that it is less attractive. We also consider anew the puzzle of why Callisto differs so greatly from Ganymede, offering several possible explanations. The models presented do not provide a compelling explanation for all aspects of Ganymedean geological evolution, since we have identified several potential problems, most notably the apparently extended period of grooved terrain formation (several hundred million years), which is difficult to reconcile with the heat pulse phenomenon.

Icarus

Genetic diversity, population structure, and historical demography of a highly vagile and human‐impacted seabird in the Pacific Ocean: The red‐tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda

Many seabird breeding colonies have recovered from heavy anthropogenic disturbance after conservation actions. The widely distributed red‐tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda , was used as a model species to assess potential anthropogenic impacts on the genetic diversity of breeding colonies in the Pacific Ocean. Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and control region sequences analyses were conducted across the range of the species in the Pacific Ocean. The study sites were at islands without human‐related disturbance (non‐impacted islands) and with human‐related disturbance (impacted islands). We hypothesized that (i) breeding colonies of the red‐tailed tropicbird on impacted islands have lower genetic diversity compared with colonies on non‐impacted islands, and (ii) breeding colonies of the red‐tailed tropicbird show significant fine and broad‐scale genetic structure across the Pacific Ocean. Bayesian skyline analyses were conducted to infer past changes in population sizes. Genetic diversity was similar between impacted and non‐impacted islands. There was significant broad‐scale genetic structure among colonies separated by over 6,000 km, but a lack of significant fine‐scale genetic structure within Australasia and Hawai'i, although a significant level of differentiation was found within Chile with Φ ST analyses. Skyline analyses showed that effective population sizes remained relatively constant through time, but experienced either a slight decrease or the end of an expansion event through the last 1,000 years. These changes may be related to the arrival of humans on Pacific islands. Impacted islands may have received immigrants from other relatively close islands, buffering the loss of genetic diversity. However, it is also possible that colonies have retained ancestral variation or that a large effective population size coupled with a long generation time (13 years) has prevented the loss of genetic diversity in human‐impacted islands. Future research using higher‐resolution markers is needed to resolve the population genetic structure of the red‐tailed tropicbird in an ecological time‐scale.

Hawaii

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina

Bioenergetic model estimates of interannual and spatial patterns in consumption demand and growth potential of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the Gulf of Alaska

A bioenergetic model of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) was used to estimate daily prey consumption and growth potential of four ocean habitats in the Gulf of Alaska during 2001 and 2002. Growth potential was not significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 at an alpha level of 0.05 (P=0.073). Average differences in growth potential across habitats were minimal (slope habitat=0.844 g d -1 , shelf habitat=0.806 g d -1 , offshore habitat=0.820 g d -1 , and nearshore habitat=0.703 g d -1 ) and not significantly different (P=0.630). Consumption demand differed significantly between hatchery and wild stocks (P=0.035) when examined within year due to the interaction between hatchery verses wild origin and year. However, the overall effect of origin across years was not significant (P=0.705) due to similar total amounts of prey consumed by all juvenile pink salmon in both study years. We anticipated that years in which ocean survival was high would have had high growth potential, but this relationship did not prove to be true. Therefore, modeled growth potential may not be useful as a tool for forecasting survival of Prince William Sound hatchery pink salmon stocks. Significant differences in consumption demand and a two-fold difference in nearshore abundance during 2001 of hatchery and wild pink salmon confirmed the existence of strong and variable interannual competition and the importance of the nearshore region as being a potential competitive bottleneck.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea

Effect of straying, reproductive strategies, and ocean distribution on the structure of American shad populations

The use of species distribution models has proliferated, providing insights for sustainable management of migratory species in a globally changing environment. However, many of these models are based on statistical relationships developed from historical conditions that may not perform well under changing or even analogous conditions caused by climate change. In this paper, we used a mechanistic species distribution model called GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics for Diadromous Fish Distribution) to examine the integrated dynamics of American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) populations across their native range along the Eastern U.S. coast, where the species demonstrates latitudinal variations in life histories and reproductive strategies. The initial design of the model was adapted to incorporate region-specific parameterization to fit the species ecology. Then, a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the influences of uncertain processes regarding American shad distribution at sea, straying and reproduction on key characteristics of the species distribution. The sensitivity analysis showed the influence of the Allee effect (i.e., “depensatory” process) and the homing rate (i.e., fidelity to the breeding sites) on the probability of presence and abundances among catchments and metapopulations estimated by the model. Contrary to the homing rate, the distance of straying did not change the estimated number of metapopulations or abundances. Homing strength, however, was quite influential. The integration of complex migration patterns during the marine phase (i.e., wintering and summering offshore areas) provided more likely estimates of the species' overall distribution. Overall, our study illustrated the utility of incorporating factors governing the large-scale distribution of migratory species to improve local management.

Ecosphere

In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica

The Costa Rican convergent margin has been considered a type erosive margin, with erosional models suggesting average losses up to −153 km 3 /km/m.y. However, three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program data collected offshore the Osa Peninsula images accretionary structures and vertical motions that conflict with the forearc basal erosion model. Here we integrate such data to do an in‐situ accounting of material transfer at the plate boundary across the outermost 10 km of the forearc, characterized by active and inactive megathrusts. Our in‐situ budget finds an approximate balance between sediment recycling via accretion and underplating, 0.7–2.3 km 3 /km/m.y., and basal erosion, 0.7 km 3 /km/m.y., while subducting sediment volumes, 7.8 km 3 /km/m.y., greatly outpace either material transfer volumes. These budget results differ significantly from published estimates based on simple proxies of trench axis deflection and slope subsidence. These budget results are the summation of thin incoming hemipelagic sediments that variably accrete along the deformation front, underplating of hemipelagic sediments on the upthrown‐side and basal erosion on the downthrown‐side of active plate bending faulting landward of the trench axis, and sediment subduction primarily composed of pelagic sediments.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Gas exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces in south San Francisco Bay

Radon 222 concentrations in the water and sedimentary columns and radon exchange rates across the sediment-water and air-water interfaces have been measured in a section of south San Francisco Bay. Two independent methods have been used to determine sediment-water exchange rates, and the annual averages of these methods agree within the uncertainty of the determinations, about 20%. The annual average of benthic fluxes from shoal areas is nearly a factor of 2 greater than fluxes from the channel areas. Fluxes from the shoal and channel areas exceed those expected from simple molecular diffusion by factors of 4 and 2, respectively, apparently due to macrofaunal irrigation. Values of the gas transfer coefficient for radon exchange across the air-water interface were determined by constructing a radon mass balance for the water column and by direct measurement using floating chambers. The chamber method appears to yield results which are too high. Transfer coefficients computed using the mass balance method range from 0.4 m/day to 1.8 m/day, with a 6-year average of 1.0 m/day. Gas exchange is linearly dependent upon wind speed over a wind speed range of 3.2–6.4 m/s, but shows no dependence upon current velocity. Gas transfer coefficients predicted from an empirical relationship between gas exchange rates and wind speed observed in lakes and the oceans are within 30% of the coefficients determined from the radon mass balance and are considerably more accurate than coefficients predicted from theoretical gas exchange models.

California