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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

USGS2000

Measuring stream discharge by non-contact methods: A proof-of-concept experiment

This report describes an experiment to make a completely non-contact open-channel discharge measurement. A van-mounted, pulsed doppler (10GHz) radar collected surface-velocity data across the 183-m wide Skagit River, Washington at a USGS streamgaging station using Bragg scattering from short waves produced by turbulent boils on the surface of the river. Surface velocities were converted to mean velocities for 25 sub-sections by assuming a normal open-channel velocity profile (surface velocity times 0.85). Channel cross-sectional area was measured using a 100 MHz ground-penetrating radar antenna suspended from a cableway car over the river. Seven acoustic doppler current profiler discharge measurements and a conventional current-meter discharge measurement were also made. Three non-contact discharge measurements completed in about a 1-hour period were within 1 % of the gaging station rating curve discharge values. With further refinements, it is thought that open-channel flow can be measured reliably by non-contact methods.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

Does calving matter? Evidence for significant submarine melt

During the summer in the northeast Pacific Ocean, the Alaska Coastal Current sweeps water with temperatures in excess of 12 °C past the mouths of glacierized fjords and bays. The extent to which these warm waters affect the mass balance of Alaskan tidewater glaciers is uncertain. Here we report hydrographic measurements made within Icy Bay, Alaska, and calculate rates of submarine melt at Yahtse Glacier, a tidewater glacier terminating in Icy Bay. We find strongly stratified water properties consistent with estuarine circulation and evidence that warm Gulf of Alaska water reaches the head of 40 km-long Icy Bay, largely unaltered. A 10–20 m layer of cold, fresh, glacially-modified water overlies warm, saline water. The saline water is observed to reach up to 10.4 °C within 1.5 km of the terminus of Yahtse Glacier. By quantifying the heat and salt deficit within the glacially-modified water, we place bounds on the rate of submarine melt. The submarine melt rate is estimated at >9 m d −1 , at least half the rate at which ice flows into the terminus region, and can plausibly account for all of the submarine terminus mass loss. Our measurements suggest that summer and fall subaerial calving is a direct response to thermal undercutting of the terminus, further demonstrating the critical role of the ocean in modulating tidewater glacier dynamics.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Rotational motions for teleseismic surface waves

[1] We report the findings for the first teleseismic six degree‐of‐freedom (6‐DOF) measurements including three components of rotational motions recorded by a sensitive rotation‐rate sensor (model R‐1, made by eentec) and three components of translational motions recorded by a traditional seismometer (STS‐2) at the NACB station in Taiwan. The consistent observations in waveforms of rotational motions and translational motions in sections of Rayleigh and Love waves are presented in reference to the analytical solution for these waves in a half space of Poisson solid. We show that additional information (e.g., Rayleigh wave phase velocity, shear wave velocity of the surface layer) might be exploited from six degree‐of‐freedom recordings of teleseismic events at only one station. We also find significant errors in the translational records of these teleseismic surface waves due to the sensitivity of inertial translation sensors (seismometers) to rotational motions. The result suggests that the effects of such errors need to be counted in surface wave inversions commonly used to derive earthquake source parameters and Earth structure.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2017

In situ detection of boron by ChemCam on Mars

We report the first in situ detection of boron on Mars. Boron has been detected in Gale crater at levels <0.05 wt % B by the NASA Curiosity rover ChemCam instrument in calcium‐sulfate‐filled fractures, which formed in a late‐stage groundwater circulating mainly in phyllosilicate‐rich bedrock interpreted as lacustrine in origin. We consider two main groundwater‐driven hypotheses to explain the presence of boron in the veins: leaching of borates out of bedrock or the redistribution of borate by dissolution of borate‐bearing evaporite deposits. Our results suggest that an evaporation mechanism is most likely, implying that Gale groundwaters were mildly alkaline. On Earth, boron may be a necessary component for the origin of life; on Mars, its presence suggests that subsurface groundwater conditions could have supported prebiotic chemical reactions if organics were also present and provides additional support for the past habitability of Gale crater.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Ground motion observations of the 2014 South Napa earthquake

Ground motions of the South Napa earthquake (24 August 2014; M 6.0) were recorded at 19 stations within 20 km and 292 stations within 100 km of the rupture surface trace, generating peak ground motions in excess of 50% g and 50  cm/s in and near Napa Valley. This large dataset allows us to compare the ground motion from the earthquake to existing ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in considerable detail. Using the ground‐motion data compiled and reported by ShakeMap ( Wald et al. , 2000 ), we examine the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), as well as the pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) at periods of 0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 s. At the higher frequencies, especially PGA, data recorded at close distances (within &sim;20  km) are very consistent with the GMPEs, implying a stress drop for this event similar to the median for California, that is, 5 MPa ( Baltay and Hanks, 2014 ). At all frequencies, the attenuation with distance is stronger than the GMPEs would predict, which suggests the attenuation in the Napa and San Francisco Bay delta region is stronger than the average attenuation in California. The spatial plot of the ground‐motion residuals is positive to the north, in both Napa and Sonoma Valleys, consistent with increases in amplitude expected from both the directivity and basin effects. More interestingly, perhaps, there is strong ground motion to the south in the along‐strike direction, particularly for PSA at 1.0 s. These strongly positive residuals align with an older, Quaternary fault structure associated with the Franklin or Southampton fault, potentially indicating a fault‐zone‐guided wave.

California↗

USGS2011

Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake and its interpretation by Coulomb stress transfer

We report on a broad and unprecedented increase in seismicity rate following the M=9.0 Tohoku mainshock for M ≥ 2 earthquakes over inland Japan, parts of the Japan Sea and Izu islands, at distances of up to 425 km from the locus of high (≥15 m) seismic slip on the megathrust. Such an increase was not seen for the 2004 M=9.1 Sumatra or 2010 M=8.8 Chile earthquakes, but they lacked the seismic networks necessary to detect such small events. Here we explore the possibility that the rate changes are the product of static Coulomb stress transfer to small faults. We use the nodal planes of M ≥ 3.5 earthquakes as proxies for such small active faults, and find that of fifteen regions averaging ~80 by 80 km in size, 11 show a positive association between calculated stress changes and the observed seismicity rate change, 3 show a negative correlation, and for one the changes are too small to assess. This work demonstrates that seismicity can turn on in the nominal stress shadow of a mainshock as long as small geometrically diverse active faults exist there, which is likely quite common.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2007

Earthquake likelihood model testing

INTRODUCTION The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective ( i.e. , the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits. Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions. In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper ( Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007 , this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative. Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson ( 2003 ) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests. In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses. To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P -axis, declination of P -axis, and inclination of the T -axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger ( 2007 , this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account for data quality issues, we allow for location and magnitude uncertainties as well as the probability that an event is dependent on another event. As we mentioned above, only models with comparable forecasts can be tested against each other. Our current tests are designed to examine grid-based models. This requires that any fault-based model be adapted to a grid before testing is possible. While this is a limitation of the testing, it is an inherent difficulty in any such comparative testing. Please refer to appendix B for a statistical evaluation of the application of the Poisson hypothesis to fault-based models. The testing suite we present consists of three different tests: L-Test, N-Test, and R-Test. These tests are defined similarily to Kagan and Jackson ( 1995 ). The first two tests examine the consistency of the hypotheses with the observations while the last test compares the spatial performances of the models.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Deep long-period earthquakes west of the volcanic arc in Oregon: evidence of serpentine dehydration in the fore-arc mantle wedge

Here we report on deep long-period earthquakes (DLPs) newly observed in four places in western Oregon. The DLPs are noteworthy for their location within the subduction fore arc: 40–80 km west of the volcanic arc, well above the slab, and near the Moho. These “offset DLPs” occur near the top of the inferred stagnant mantle wedge, which is likely to be serpentinized and cold. The lack of fore-arc DLPs elsewhere along the arc suggests that localized heating may be dehydrating the serpentinized mantle wedge at these latitudes and causing DLPs by dehydration embrittlement. Higher heat flow in this region could be introduced by anomalously hot mantle, associated with the western migration of volcanism across the High Lava Plains of eastern Oregon, entrained in the corner flow proximal to the mantle wedge. Alternatively, fluids rising from the subducting slab through the mantle wedge may be the source of offset DLPs. As far as we know, these are among the first DLPs to be observed in the fore arc of a subduction-zone system.

Oregon↗

USGS1978

Isotopic composition of lead in oceanic basalt and its implication to mantle evolution

New data are given in this report for (1) Pb isotopic compositions and U, Th, and Pb concentrations of basalts from the island of Hawaii; (2) redetermined Pb isotopic compositions of some abyssal tholeiites; and (3) U, Th, and Pb concentrations of altered and fresh abyssal basalts, and basalt genesis and mantle evolution are discussed. The Th/U ratios of abyssal and Japanese tholeiites are distinctly lower than those of tholeiites and alkali basalts from other areas. It is thought that these low values reflect a part of the mantle depleted in large ionic lithophile elements. Thus a mantle evolution model is presented, in which Th/U ratios of the depleted zone in the mantle have decreased to ∼2, and U/Pb ratios have increased, showing an apparent ∼1.5-b.y. isochron trend in the 207 Pb/ 204 Pb vs. 206 Pb/ 204 Pb plot. The Pb isotopic compositions of basalts from the island of Hawaii are distinct for each of the five volcanoes, and within each volcano, Pb's of tholeiites and alkali basalts are similar. An interaction between partially melted material (hot plume?) of the asthenosphere and the lithosphere is suggested to explain the trend in the Pb isotopic compositions of Hawaiian basalts.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2012

Detecting hidden volcanic explosions from Mt. Cleveland Volcano, Alaska with infrasound and ground-couples airwaves

In Alaska, where many active volcanoes exist without ground-based instrumentation, the use of techniques suitable for distant monitoring is pivotal. In this study we report regional-scale seismic and infrasound observations of volcanic activity at Mt. Cleveland between December 2011 and August 2012. During this period, twenty explosions were detected by infrasound sensors as far away as 1827 km from the active vent, and ground-coupled acoustic waves were recorded at seismic stations across the Aleutian Arc. Several events resulting from the explosive disruption of small lava domes within the summit crater were confirmed by analysis of satellite remote sensing data. However, many explosions eluded initial, automated, analyses of satellite data due to poor weather conditions. Infrasound and seismic monitoring provided effective means for detecting these hidden events. We present results from the implementation of automatic infrasound and seismo-acoustic eruption detection algorithms, and review the challenges of real-time volcano monitoring operations in remote regions. We also model acoustic propagation in the Northern Pacific, showing how tropospheric ducting effects allow infrasound to travel long distances across the Aleutian Arc. The successful results of our investigation provide motivation for expanded efforts in infrasound monitoring across the Aleutians and contributes to our knowledge of the number and style of vulcanian eruptions at Mt. Cleveland.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Seismic intensities, ground motions and basin amplification from the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California intraslab earthquake

On December 20, 2022, a Mw 6.4 earthquake occurred at a depth of 18 km within the subducting Gorda plate in the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), one of the most seismically active regions of the contiguous United States, causing widespread damage to local communities. Here we document the seismic intensities, ground motions, and basin amplification effects recorded by this earthquake across Humboldt County as part of an ongoing scientific effort to understand subduction zone earthquake hazards. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values from our post-earthquake field survey report shaking intensities as high as VIII (Severe). Strong ground motion data from 54 seismic stations were processed to calculate amplitude and frequency content parameters across Northern California. The maximum calculated geometric mean PGA and PGV are 1053 cm/s 2 and 52 cm/s (respectively), both recorded within the 3 km deep Eel River sedimentary basin. Comparisons with four published Ground Motion Prediction Equations indicate that PGA and PGV measurements align with expected attenuation-distance patterns for intraslab earthquakes of this nature. Within the Eel River Basin, ground motions for frequencies above 1 Hz are amplified, with respect to reference stations, by factors greater than 2. Our findings suggest that peak ground motions were mainly caused by sedimentary basin site-effects within the Eel River basin, although rupture directivity may have also increased ground motion amplitudes locally. While the Ferndale area is primarily impacted by shallow intraslab earthquakes, our results also raise questions about site-response and basin amplification hazards from a potential megathrust earthquake. The high seismicity rates of the southernmost Cascades call for stronger regional preparedness and improved strategies to mitigate the effects of such a large-scale disaster.

California↗

USGS2010

Temporal variations in Global Seismic Stations ambient noise power levels

Recent concerns about time-dependent response changes in broadband seismometers have motivated the need for methods to monitor sensor health at Global Seismographic Network (GSN) stations. We present two new methods for monitoring temporal changes in data quality and instrument response transfer functions that are independent of Earth seismic velocity and attenuation models by comparing power levels against different baseline values. Our methods can resolve changes in both horizontal and vertical components in a broad range of periods (∼0.05 to 1,000 seconds) in near real time. In this report, we compare our methods with existing techniques and demonstrate how to resolve instrument response changes in long-period data (>100 seconds) as well as in the microseism bands (5 to 20 seconds). High quality broadband data recorded by the GSN are fundamental to characterizing a wide range of Earth science issues including: the size and rupture of large earthquakes ( e.g. , Tsai et al. 2005 ); imaging the interior of the Earth ( e.g. , Van der Hilst et al. 1997 ); tracking global climate variation ( Aster et al. 2008 ); and monitoring calving glaciers (Ekström et al. 2003 , 2006a ). Recent studies based on theoretical Earth models ( Ekström et al. 2006b ; Davis and Berger 2007 ) suggest that broadband seismometer gain levels can vary with time. This has also been confirmed, for the STS-1 sensor, experimentally ( Yuki and Ishihara 2002 ). It therefore has become necessary to systematically check for temporal changes in amplitude at GSN stations. Many of these changes are frequency-dependent in nature and not a priori predictable ( Ekström et al. 2006b ). Robust methods that can be applied to a large number of stations in a broad range of frequency bands are necessary.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2021

SSA task force on diversity, equity, and inclusion: Toward a changing, inclusive future in earthquake science

In the United States, a wide variety of studies show that the geoscience community does not reflect the broader societal makeup (e.g., Velasco and Jaurrieta de Velasco, 2010; Dutt, 2020; Howley, 2020). In fact, only about 10% of all Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Ph.D. degrees are awarded to people of color, although they represent more than a third of the population (Dutt, 2020). These numbers have changed little over the past 40 yr (e.g., Bernard and Cooperdock, 2018; Dutt, 2020). Recent events in the United States have again raised awareness of this discrepancy in many fields; similar divergences may be present throughout the world. This discrepancy represents a tremendous loss of talent and contributes to ongoing bias and racism. As the premier international seismological professional society, Seismological Society of America (SSA) is committed, as stated in its ethics policy, to “freedom and transparency in research and education, which should be conducted in a supportive, inclusive, and respectful environment, free from any discrimination, harassment or bullying.” SSA convened the SSA Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Task Force to identify specific and actionable recommendations that the Society can take to start to address the significant issues surrounding the systematic underrepresentation in seismology and related geosciences by marginalized groups on both short- and long- term time horizons. This report, written by the Task Force, outlines actionable items that SSA can undertake as well as a framework by which progress can be measured to help guide the Society and its members forward as a community to make earthquake science more just, equitable, diverse, and inclusive. We recognize that this document cannot address the multiple individual, cultural, and historical barriers that some members may face (e.g., Núñez et al., 2020), nor can it reflect all possibilities or all recommended practices (e.g., Ali et al., 2021). What this document does represent, however, is the beginning of what we hope to be a significant cultural change in how we conduct earthquake science as an organization, not the end of this process as the Task Force fulfills its charter. As a note, some of the recommendations that the Task Force has outlined here have already been implemented within SSA or are actively being considered. For completeness, we still include them here because this highlights the commitment to change that SSA leadership has embraced.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2017

A report on upgraded seismic monitoring stations in Myanmar: Station performance and site response

Myanmar is in a tectonically complex region between the eastern edge of the Himalayan collision zone and the northern end of the Sunda megathrust. Until recently, earthquake monitoring and research efforts have been hampered by a lack of modern instrumentation and communication infrastructure. In January 2016, a major upgrade of the Myanmar National Seismic Network (MNSN; network code MM) was undertaken to improve earthquake monitoring capability. We installed five permanent broadband and strong‐motion seismic stations and real‐time data telemetry using newly improved cellular networks. Data are telemetered to the MNSN hub in Nay Pyi Taw and archived at the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. We analyzed station noise characteristics and site response using noise and events recorded over the first six months of station operation. Background noise characteristics vary across the array, but indicate that the new stations are performing well. MM stations recorded more than 20 earthquakes of M ≥4.5 within Myanmar and its immediate surroundings, including an M 6.8 earthquake located northwest of Mandalay on 13 April 2016 and the M w 6.8 Chauk event on 24 August 2016. We use this new dataset to calculate horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios, which provide a preliminary characterization of site response of the upgraded MM stations.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Hydrogen isotopes in high 3He/4He submarine basalts: Primordial vs. recycled water and the veil of mantle enrichment

The hydrogen isotope value ( δ D) of water indigenous to the mantle is masked by the early degassing and recycling of surface water through Earth's history. High 3 He/ 4 He ratios in some ocean island basalts, however, provide a clear geochemical signature of deep, primordial mantle that has been isolated within the Earth's interior from melting, degassing, and convective mixing with the upper mantle. Hydrogen isotopes were measured in high 3 He/ 4 He submarine basalt glasses from the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) at the Amsterdam–St. Paul (ASP) Plateau ( δ D = −51 to −90‰, 3 He/ 4 He = 7.6 to 14.1 R A ) and in submarine glasses from Loihi seamount south of the island of Hawaii ( δ D = −70 to −90‰, 3 He/ 4 He = 22.5 to 27.8 R A ). These results highlight two contrasting patterns of δ D for high 3 He/ 4 He lavas: one trend toward high δ D of approximately −50‰, and another converging at δ D = −75‰. These same patterns are evident in a global compilation of previously reported δ D and 3 He/ 4 He results. We suggest that the high δ D values result from water recycled during subduction that is carried into the source region of mantle plumes at the core–mantle boundary where it is mixed with primordial mantle, resulting in high δ D and moderately high 3 He/ 4 He. Conversely, lower δ D values of −75‰, in basalts from Loihi seamount and also trace element depleted mid-ocean ridge basalts, imply a primordial Earth hydrogen isotopic value of −75‰ or lower. δ D values down to −100‰ also occur in the most trace element-depleted mid-ocean ridge basalts, typically in association with 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios near 0.703. These lower δ D values may be a result of multi-stage melting history of the upper mantle where minor D/H fractionation could be associated with hydrogen retention in nominally anhydrous residual minerals. Collectively, the predominance of δ D around −75‰ in the majority of mid-ocean ridge basalts and in high 3 He/ 4 He Loihi basalts is consistent with an origin of water on Earth that was dominated by accretion of chondritic material.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2017

Occurrence of neonicotinoid insecticides in finished drinking water and fate during drinking water treatment

Neonicotinoid insecticides are widespread in surface waters across the agriculturally-intensive Midwestern US. We report for the first time the presence of three neonicotinoids in finished drinking water and demonstrate their general persistence during conventional water treatment. Periodic tap water grab samples were collected at the University of Iowa over seven weeks in 2016 (May-July) after maize/soy planting. Clothianidin, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam were ubiquitously detected in finished water samples and ranged from 0.24-57.3 ng/L. Samples collected along the University of Iowa treatment train indicate no apparent removal of clothianidin and imidacloprid, with modest thiamethoxam removal (~50%). In contrast, the concentrations of all neonicotinoids were substantially lower in the Iowa City treatment facility finished water using granular activated carbon (GAC) filtration. Batch experiments investigated potential losses. Thiamethoxam losses are due to base-catalyzed hydrolysis at high pH conditions during lime softening. GAC rapidly and nearly completely removed all three neonicotinoids. Clothianidin is susceptible to reaction with free chlorine and may undergo at least partial transformation during chlorination. Our work provides new insights into the persistence of neonicotinoids and their potential for transformation during water treatment and distribution, while also identifying GAC as an effective management tool to lower neonicotinoid concentrations in finished drinking water.

Environmental Science & Technology Letters↗

USGS2025

From hydrated silica to quartz: Potential hydrothermal precipitates found in Jezero crater, Mars

On Earth, silica-rich phases from opal to quartz are important indicators and tracers of geological processes. Hydrated silica, such as opal, is a particularly good matrix for the preservation of molecular and macroscopic biosignatures. Cherts, a type of silica-dominated rocks, provide a unique archive of ancient terrestrial life while quartz is the emblematic mineral of the Earth's continental crust. On Mars, hydrated silica has been detected in several locations based on remote sensing and rover-based studies. In the present article we report on the detection of cobbles made of hydrated silica (opal or chalcedony), as well as well-crystallized quartz. These detections were made with the SuperCam instrument onboard Perseverance (Mars 2020 mission), using a combination of LIBS, infrared and Raman spectroscopy. Quartz-dominated stones are detected unambiguously for the first time on the Martian surface, and based on grain size and crystallinity are proposed to be of hydrothermal origin. Although these rocks were all found as float, we propose that these detections are part of a common hydrothermal system, and represent different depths / temperatures of precipitation. This attests that hydrothermal processes were active in and around Jezero crater, possibly triggered by the Jezero crater-forming impact. These silica-rich rocks, in particular opaline silica, are very promising targets for sampling and return to Earth given their high biosignature preservation potential.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2022

Prospective and retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Geological Survey public aftershock forecast for the 2019-2021 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake and aftershocks

The M w "> M w 6.4 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake of 7 January 2020 was accompanied by a robust fore‐ and aftershock sequence. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has issued regular aftershock forecasts for more than a year since the mainshock, available on a public webpage. Forecasts were accompanied by interpretive and informational material, published in English and Spanish. Informational products included narrative “scenarios” for how the aftershock sequence could play out, infographics, and a report on the potential duration of the aftershock sequence through the next decade. Forecasts are based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and generated using the USGS AftershockForecaster software—an interactive graphical user interface built on the OpenSHA platform ( Field et al. , 2003 ). The initial forecast is based on past sequences in similar tectonic environments; subsequent forecasts are tuned to the ongoing sequence via Bayesian model updating. Probabilistic aftershock forecasts for the next day, week, month, and year were publicly released and archived at a daily to monthly tempo, allowing for a truly prospective test of the forecast. Here, we evaluate the forecast over the first year of the recorded aftershocks. The ETAS‐based forecast performed well overall, successfully capturing both the chance of having at least one earthquake of a given magnitude in a forecast interval as well as the non‐Poissonian distribution of the total number of aftershocks within an interval. A retrospective analysis shows that the ETAS model is a substantial improvement over the existing Reasenberg and Jones (1989) forecast model. The exercise also reveals some limitations of the current model, in particular, with respect to nonstationarities in the aftershock magnitude distribution and model parameters throughout the evolving sequence.

Puerto Rico↗