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Current status of the community sensor model standard for the generation of planetary digital terrain models

The creation of accurate elevation models (topography) from stereo images are critical for a large variety of geospatial activities, including the production of digital orthomosaics, change detection, landing site analysis, geologic mapping, rover traverse planning, and spectral analysis. The United Stated Geological Survey, Astrogeology Science Center, continues to transition the supported planetary sensor models to the Community Sensor Model (CSM) standard. This paper describes the current state of use for this photogrammetric standard, supported sensor model types, and qualitatively compares derived topography between SOCET SET and SOCET GXP ( ® BAE Systems) using HiRISE stereo images of Mars. Our transition to the CSM standard will ensure an uninterrupted capability to make these valuable products for Mars and many other extraterrestrial planets and moons.

Remote Sensing

Hydrologic investigation of water level fluctuations at Moreau Lake, Moreau Lake State Park, town of Moreau, New York

The causes of water level fluctuations at Moreau Lake, within Moreau Lake State Park in the town of Moreau, New York, were investigated from 2016 to 2021 after lake water levels dropped between 2015 and 2016, raising concerns about the loss of a shallow swimming area at the park beach. Annual variation in precipitation records from the area did not account for the lake water level decline. Two possible causes for the low lake water levels were investigated: the increase in groundwater withdrawals from new residential development since about 2000 and seasonal changes (nongrowing and growing seasons) in precipitation. Investigation of the potential effects of nearby groundwater withdrawals required the compilation and collection of well-log data, seismic surveys, and measurements of lake and groundwater levels, field chemical parameters, and water isotopes to define the hydrogeologic system and to estimate water use. The net result of this work was the determination that Moreau Lake is a “flow though” lake with no surface water outlet; groundwater enters the lake on the upgradient side and exits through the downgradient side, however, groundwater does not flow southward from the lake toward nearby groundwater withdrawals from the semiconfined aquifer, and thus groundwater withdrawals were unlikely to have an effect on lake water levels. Investigation of the historic precipitation records during nongrowing (November through April) and growing (May through October) indicated that (1) nongrowing season precipitation from 2011–12 to 2015–16 was more deficient than any similar period during the past 78 years and (2) since about 2000, nongrowing seasons have been drier overall and growing seasons have been considerably wetter. Initiation of lake water level monitoring in 2016 provided an opportunity to compare seasonal precipitation with seasonal lake water level changes. Nongrowing season lake water levels are very sensitive to precipitation, such that high precipitation (40 percent above the seasonal median) resulted in a 5-foot rise in lake water level. In contrast, the growing season lake water levels are sensitive to dry conditions; for example, deficient rainfall (about 6 percent below the seasonal median) resulted in a decline of lake water levels of about 3.5 feet. However, lake water levels are insensitive to high growing season rainfall inputs (about 10 to 47 percent above the seasonal median); lake water levels consistently declined about by 0.8 feet above this range of seasonal excessive precipitation.

New York

Volcanic gas monitoring

Introduction As magma rises through the crust, decreasing pressure conditions allow volatiles to exsolve from the magma. These volatiles then migrate upward through the crust, where they can be stored at shallower levels or escape to the atmosphere. Rising magma also heats rock masses beneath volcanic centers, causing water in shallow aquifers and hydrothermal systems to boil and release additional gases and steam (see chapter F , this volume; Ingebritsen and Hurwitz, 2024). The chemistry and quantity of gases that reach the surface during periods of quiescence or volcanic unrest can reveal that gas-rich magma is ascending, crystallizing, or alternatively stalling, with important implications for volcanic hazard (for example, Sutton and others, 1992; Aiuppa and others, 2007, 2021; Werner and others, 2009, 2011, 2012; Moretti and others, 2013; de Moor and others, 2016; Lewicki and others, 2019; Edmonds and others, 2022; Kern and others, 2022; Kunrat and others, 2022). Most volcanoes in Alaska and the western United States are characterized by weak degassing, with one or more low-temperature fumaroles (typically near the local boiling temperature of water) and connect to a deeper and sometimes extensive hydrothermal system (for example, McGee and others, 2001; Symonds and others, 2003a, b). Hydrothermal systems will affect the chemistry of rising gases exsolved from deeper magma (Symonds and others, 2001), including sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), hydrogen chloride (HCl), and water vapor (for example, Doukas and Gerlach, 1995; Gerlach and others, 1998, 2008; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2013). As an example, depending on factors such as temperature, pressure, and oxidation state, rising SO 2 will react with groundwater to form hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) gas, dissolved sulfate (SO 4 2− ), or elemental sulfur (Christenson, 2000; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2008). The reaction and dissolution of SO 2 into shallow groundwater is commonly referred to as scrubbing, and can reduce the likelihood that ascending, degassing magma can be detected. Carbon dioxide, however, in addition to exsolving from magma early in the ascent process, is not easily removed by hydrothermal fluids (Lowenstern, 2001). As scrubbing and other processes take place, the SO 2 /H 2 S, CO 2 /SO 2 , and CO 2 /H 2 S ratios may change. High rates of SO 2 emission indicate that magma has moved to relatively shallow levels in the volcano and that the system has heated up enough to establish dry pathways from depth to the surface. Monitoring multiple gas species and the total output of those species is thereby useful for volcano monitoring during both periods of quiescence, to establish background degassing conditions, and during unrest, when gas geochemistry and emission rates can provide information on changing conditions, such as magma ascent. To provide context for multidisciplinary volcano forecasts, we focus on the following two key required capabilities: (1) characterizing baseline geochemistry and gas discharge from volcanoes and volcanic regions and (2) monitoring changes in gas geochemistry and discharge to inform forecasts of volcanic eruptions and their effects. Sufficient baseline data must be collected to identify and interpret anomalous degassing associated with volcanic unrest (for example, Sorey and others, 1998; Rouwet and others, 2014). Differences in volcano type, baseline degassing rates, local hydrology, and geography (for example, high versus low latitude) will result in a different baseline for each volcano. Volcanoes of any threat level that exhibit one or more degassing phenomena would ideally be monitored by techniques needed to establish baseline degassing data, with the sampling frequency of baseline data dictated by the threat level (table E1). Additional monitoring techniques become necessary during periods of unrest. In general, three of the most important techniques for gas monitoring are (1) direct sampling of fumarole, spring, and soil gases for laboratory geochemical measurements, (2) measurements of the chemical composition of the volcanic plume and emission rates of major gas species (for example, H 2 O, CO 2 , SO 2 , and H 2 S) by satellite, airborne, or ground-based techniques, and (3) measurements of diffuse emissions of CO 2 and other gases through soils. Various methods and instruments may be useful both for baseline studies and during unrest.

Scientific Investigations Report

Assessment of density pattern retention of generalized data for 1:100,000-scale United States topographic maps

Cartographic generalization reduces the complexity of geographic data to produce legible, smaller-scale displays that retain essential information and logical geographic patterns. Generalization is a vital process in topographic map production. An important challenge in this process is managing and evaluating consistency across scale in the density and spatial distribution of map features such as buildings, roads, streams, water bodies, and elevation contours. Density patterns in these features reflect underlying physiographic conditions, which include factors such as bedrock geology, tectonics, climate, and landforms. Assessments of an acceptable level of change in feature density patterns are critical to ensuring the readability, usability, and accuracy of generalized maps and data. Preserving realistic density patterns across mapping scales also supports sustainable development goals in cartography, by helping to prioritize and communicate the relative reliability of geospatial data at specific scales.

Conference Paper

Preconditioned Conjugate-Gradient 2 (PCG2), a computer program for solving ground-water flow equations

This report documents PCG2: a numerical code to be used with the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model. PCG2 uses the preconditioned conjugate-gradient method to solve the equations produced by the model for hydraulic head. Linear or nonlinear flow conditions may be simulated. PCG2 includes two reconditioning options: modified incomplete Cholesky preconditioning, which is efficient on scalar computers; and polynomial preconditioning, which requires less computer storage and, with modifications that depend on the computer used, is most efficient on vector computers. Convergence of the solver is determined using both head-change and residual criteria. Nonlinear problems are solved using Picard iterations. This documentation provides a description of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method and the two preconditioners, detailed instructions for linking PCG2 to the modular model, sample data inputs, a brief description of PCG2, and a FORTRAN listing.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Groundwater response to managed aquifer recharge at the Southeast Houghton Artificial Recharge Project in Tucson, Arizona

Managed aquifer recharge is a widespread practice for storing water in the subsurface as groundwater. At a managed aquifer recharge facility in southern Arizona, groundwater-level and repeat microgravity data were collected to monitor aquifer response. These data were used to inform parameter identification for an unsaturated-zone flow model used to simulate the recharge process. The facility, the Southeast Houghton Artificial Recharge Project (SHARP), consists of 3 surface basins (about 27,600 square meters [6.8 acres] total surface area) where recycled water is distributed in recharge cycles lasting several months, with dry periods in between. During the study period, December 2020–December 2022, Tucson Water (the City of Tucson’s water utility) reported 6.56×10 6 cubic meters of water (5,320 acre-feet) recharged. Monitoring included groundwater-level observations at 3 monitoring wells and repeat microgravity measurements at as many as 22 locations (some stations were destroyed between surveys). Six gravity surveys were carried out using absolute- and relative-gravity meters. Large gravity increases, more than 250 microgals, were observed during the first repeat survey, 3.5 months after the start of recharge, but only in the immediate vicinity of the recharge basins. Data show that water moved downward to the water table, and storage changes in the unsaturated zone away from the facility were likely minimal. Gravity decreased at stations more than 1 kilometer from the facility, consistent with regional groundwater-level changes. Groundwater-level increases in wells adjacent to the recharge basins began 2 months after the second repeat gravity survey, and 5.5 months after recharge began. Unsaturated-zone flow modeling was carried out using software that simulates water movement and parameter estimation. Model calibration was carried out by minimizing an objective function calculated from the differences between simulated and observed groundwater levels, and between simulated and observed repeat microgravity data. Including repeat microgravity data in the objective function reduced the uncertainty in estimated parameter values for saturated hydraulic conductivity and saturated water content. Modeling indicated that the unsaturated zone between the recharge basins and the water table does not become saturated even after 685 days of simulated infiltration. This gradual wetting may account for increasing infiltration rates over time, as hydraulic conductivity increases with increasing water content. Unsaturated-zone water content decreased rapidly between recharge cycles. Model-simulated groundwater mounding extended about 1 kilometer from the center of SHARP after the 685-day period following the onset of recharge.

Arizona

Thermo-hydrologic processes governing supra-permafrost talik dynamics in discontinuous permafrost near Umiujaq (Québec, Canada)

Widespread supra-permafrost talik formation is currently recognized as a critical mechanism that could accelerate permafrost thaw in the Arctic (e.g., Connon et al. 2018; Farquharson et al. 2022). However, the trajectory of permafrost dynamics following talik formation may prove difficult to predict. Physically-based cryohydrogeologic models provide a powerful tool for understanding processes and factors controlling talik dynamics and, ultimately, how permafrost will respond to climate change. Such models are typically used to represent multiple non-linear processes relevant for groundwater systems in cold regions, such as coupled heat and groundwater movement, including freeze-thaw dynamics and the effects on the surface energy balance and the subsurface thermal and hydraulic properties (Lamontagne-Hallé et al. 2020). Though cryohydrogeologic modeling advances have been made in simulating talik dynamics, few applications have been tested against robust long-term hydrometeorological and subsurface observations.

Quebec

Assessment of water chemistry of the Coconino aquifer in northeastern Arizona

The Coconino aquifer was investigated as a potential groundwater resource for the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation in northeastern Arizona. Basic groundwater chemistry, including major ions, total dissolved solids, and selected trace metal concentrations, are presented and analyzed to characterize the Coconino aquifer. The geochemical compositions of groundwater are associated with changes in geology and groundwater movement and are compared to drinking-water standards to determine suitable areas for potential groundwater resource development. Dissolved-solids concentrations in much of the Coconino aquifer water were higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s secondary drinking-water standard of 500 milligrams per liter (mg/L) due to a buried halite body in the southeastern part of the study area. However, trace metal concentrations were generally low. Groundwater may need to be treated for high dissolved-solids concentrations before it is suitable for use as a resource for the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation.

Arizona

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at De Soto National Memorial, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida

Cooling perspectives on the risk of pathogenic viruses from thawing permafrost

Climate change is inducing wide-scale permafrost thaw in the Arctic and subarctic, triggering concerns that long-dormant pathogens could reemerge from the thawing ground and initiate epidemics or pandemics. Viruses, as opposed to bacterial pathogens, garner particular interest because outbreaks cannot be controlled with antibiotics, though the effects can be mitigated by vaccines and newer antiviral drugs. To evaluate the potential hazards posed by viral pathogens emerging from thawing permafrost, we review information from a diverse range of disciplines. This includes efforts to recover infectious virus from human remains, studies on disease occurrence in polar animal populations, investigations into viral persistence and infectivity in permafrost, and assessments of human exposure to the enormous viral diversity present in the environment. Based on currently available knowledge, we conclude that the risk posed by viruses from thawing permafrost is no greater than viruses in other environments such as temperate soils and aquatic systems.

mSystems

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Biscayne National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Biscayne National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

San Juan National Historic Site

Persistent deep long-period seismicity near the Lassen Volcanic Center

Deep long-period (DLP) earthquakes have been observed at many volcanic settings around the world and linked to the magmatic processes that drive volcanic unrest. At the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC) of the Cascade arc, limited detection of DLP activity hinders classification of anomalous seismic behavior and its relationship to the LVC magmatic system. This study uses a template matching approach with seismic data from temporary nodal and permanent stations to detect and locate DLP earthquakes near the LVC between 2017 and 2024. Within the DLP catalog of 611 events, a transition occurs from scattered (2017–2020) to oscillatory (2021–2024) occurrence rates. During the oscillatory period, regional earthquakes with large amplitude velocity waveforms observed near the LVC are associated with abrupt changes in DLP occurrence rates. Continued monitoring of DLP activity has the potential to better define the processes that drive volcanic unrest at the LVC in the future.

California

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water