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Updating the debate on model complexity

As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

GSA Today

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences. Examples of health threats to biodiversity include the “spillover” of human diseases to great ape populations (Köndgen et al., 2008), the near-extirpation of the black-footed ferret from canine distemper and sylvatic plague (for a review see Abbott et al., 2012), and threats to Hawaiian forest birds from introduced pathogens such as avian malaria and avian pox (van Riper et al., 1986, 2002). There are also newly discovered pathogens or diseases that have resulted in population declines, and global extinctions of several species. Examples include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally (Kriger and Hero, 2009); and recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species (Blehert et al., 2009). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of the subsequent impacts on human and ecosystem health; for example, increasing risk of exposure to Lyme disease as a consequence of decreased biodiversity (LoGiudice et al., 2003) as well as the economic cost of the loss of bats due to decreased insect control services (Boyles et al., 2011). Figure A12-1 is a timeline of important diseases investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey since the 1970s, which illustrates three factors: 1. The unprecedented emergence of new pathogens and geographic spread of known pathogens since the 1990s; 2. Diseases are increasingly causing large-scale, negative impacts on wildlife populations and spreading over larger geographic areas rather than remaining localized; and 3. Diseases are increasingly of concern for multiple sectors, including public health, agriculture and wildlife management agencies. Of increasing concern are these novel diseases such as WNS as they are hard to anticipate, particularly devastating to human health or wildlife populations, challenging to manage, spread over large geographic areas in short time periods, and may result in ecological ripple effects that are difficult to predict. The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Conference Paper

The petrology of dispersed organic matter in sedimentary rocks: Review and update

Organic petrology developed from coal petrology, and, in the 1960s, it began to be applied to the study of dispersed organic matter (DOM) in sedimentary rocks other than coal. Over the last few decades, the petrology of DOM has been used to characterize organic matter in sedimentary basins with an emphasis on fossil fuel resource exploration. Today, due to the global research shift on topics related to climate, organic petrology has expanded into new application areas, such as geothermal exploration, biological carbon storage (biochar), disposal, and management of radioactive waste. From the publication of the International Handbook of Coal Petrology (mid-20th century) to the present day, a large number of standards, books, and articles have been published as a result of the work of organic petrographers and petrologists around the world and efforts of the International Committee for Coal and Organic Petrology (ICCP) and The Society for Organic Petrology (TSOP) to promote the study of organic petrology. The current fundamentals and standards of organic petrology provide the international scientific community with well-informed guidance and recommendations to promote in-depth research. However, this information is currently widely scattered, leading to discrepancies in methodology and terminology. Therefore, this paper aims to present a comprehensive review of the main analytical standard test methods and techniques currently used in the petrology of DOM under reflected white light and UV and blue-light excitation, and to provide an efficient and well-defined reference guide. Furthermore, considering the important role of the ICCP in the development of organic petrology since the 1950s, a brief review of the ongoing activities of ICCP dealing with DOM is also presented.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Palynology of latest Neogene (Middle Miocene to late Pliocene) strata in the Delmarva Peninsula of Maryland and Virginia

Palynology of Miocene and Pliocene formations in the Delmarva Peninsula of Maryland and Virginia reveals a significant representation of exotic pollen interspersed in pollen assemblages that are otherwise comparable to those from the modern vegetation of the Mid-Alantic coastal plain region. The late Tertiary arboreal pollen (AP) assemblages are dominated by oak, hickory, pine, birch and alder with minor amounts of mid- and southern coastal tree taxa, as well as minor spruce and hemlock and a trace of fir. Nonarboreal pollen (NAP) include grass, sedge, composite and aquatic taxa. Exotic pollen in these assemblages represent plants now foreign to this region. They may be placed in three categories. First, there are extinct forms, such as Labrapollis, Plicatopollis, and Multiporopollenites, that can be traced from the Cretaceous or Early Tertiary into the Late Tertiary. The second group includes forms, such as Podocarpus, Engelhardtia, Pterocarya, Ephedra, Eucommia, Ulmus-Zelkova, Glyptostrobus, Palmae, and Cyathea, that are not found in this region today and not found in early Pleistocene sediments in the eastern United States. Many of these taxa are subtropical or greatly restricted in geographic range. A third group of exotics, mainly Cyrilla, Planera, Gordonia, Jussiaea, and Sapotacaea, including Minusops, are generally found south of the study area or have their northern limit here at this time. The lack of the extinct or distant exotics in early to mid-Pleistocene sediments in the mid-Atlantic coastal plain and the last appearance of Pterocarya, as the last exotic taxon in the early Pleistocene of western Europe, support the stratigraphic assignment of the Pliocene units. The number of exotic taxa diminish markedly between the Miocene pollen assemblages and those of the Late Pliocene. Climatic fluctuations characterize the Late Tertiary environments. The Miocene, for example, incorporates a warming trend between the upper, middle Miocene and the Manokin beds and the late Miocene of the Pokomoke beds. The late Miocene was probably somewhat warner than the present climate in the Delmarva region. This trend is based on the presence of colder climate indicators, mainly spruce and hemlock, in the Manokin pollen record. The two distinct pollen assemblages constitute two pollen zones. Similarly, the Pliocene pollen record also shows a warming trend. The pollen zone of the Yorktown Formation of the early Pliocene age contains the colder climate indicators spruce and hemlock. The Beaverdam and Walston formation of late Pliocene age contain pollen assemblages that reflect climatic conditions warmer than the present time.

Northeastern Geology and Environmental Sciences

Study design and percent recoveries of anthropogenic organic compounds with and without the addition of ascorbic acid to preserve water samples containing free chlorine, 2004-06

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began implementing Source Water-Quality Assessments (SWQAs) in 2002 that focus on characterizing the quality of source water and finished water of aquifers and major rivers used by some of the larger community water systems in the United States. As used for SWQA studies, source water is the raw (ambient) water collected at the supply well prior to water treatment (for ground water) or the raw (ambient) water collected from the river near the intake (for surface water). Finished water is the water that is treated, which typically involves, in part, the addition of chlorine or other disinfection chemicals to remove pathogens, and is ready to be delivered to consumers. Finished water is collected before the water enters the distribution system. This report describes the study design and percent recoveries of anthropogenic organic compounds (AOCs) with and without the addition of ascorbic acid to preserve water samples containing free chlorine. The percent recoveries were determined by using analytical results from a laboratory study conducted in 2004 by the USGS's National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) and from data collected during 2004-06 for a field study currently (2008) being conducted by the USGS's NAWQA Program. The laboratory study was designed to determine if preserving samples with ascorbic acid (quenching samples) adversely affects analytical performance under controlled conditions. During the laboratory study, eight samples of reagent water were spiked for each of five analytical schedules evaluated. Percent recoveries from these samples were then compared in two ways: (1) four quenched reagent spiked samples analyzed on day 0 were compared with four quenched reagent spiked samples analyzed on day 7 or 14, and (2) the combined eight quenched reagent spiked samples analyzed on day 0, 7, or 14 were compared with eight laboratory reagent spikes (LRSs). Percent recoveries from the quenched reagent spiked samples that were analyzed at two different times (day 0 and day 7 or 14) can be used to determine the stability of the quenched samples held for an amount of time representative of the normal amount of time between sample collection and analysis. The comparison between the quenched reagent spiked samples and the LRSs can be used to determine if quenching samples adversely affects the analytical performance under controlled conditions. The field study began in 2004 and is continuing today (February 2008) to characterize the effect of quenching on field-matrix spike recoveries and to better understand the potential oxidation and transformation of 277 AOCs. Three types of samples were collected from 11 NAWQA Study Units across the Nation: (1) quenched finished-water samples (not spiked), (2) quenched finished-water spiked samples, and (3) nonquenched finished-water spiked samples. Percent recoveries of AOCs in quenched and nonquenched finished-water spiked samples collected during 2004-06 are presented. Comparisons of percent recoveries between quenched and nonquenched spiked samples can be used to show how quenching affects finished-water samples. A maximum of 6 surface-water and 7 ground-water quenched finished-water spiked samples paired with nonquenched finished-water spiked samples were analyzed. Analytical results for the field study are presented in two ways: (1) by surface-water supplies or ground-water supplies, and (2) by use (or source) group category for surface-water and ground-water supplies. Graphical representations of percent recoveries for the quenched and nonquenched finished-water spiked samples also are presented.

Open-File Report

The 1960 tsunami on beach-ridge plains near Maullín, Chile: Landward descent, renewed breaches, aggraded fans, multiple predecessors

The Chilean tsunami of 22 May 1960 reamed out a breach and built up a fan as it flowed across a sparsely inhabited beach-ridge plain near Maullín, midway along the length of the tsunami source. Eyewitnesses to the flooding, interviewed mainly in 1988 and 1989, identified levels that the tsunami had reached on high ground, trees, and build- ings. The maximum levels fell, from about 10 m to 2 m, between the mouth of the tidal Río Maullín and an inundation limit nearly 5 km inland across the plain. Along this profile at Caulle, where the maximum flow depth was a few meters deep, airphotos taken in 1961 show breaches across a road on a sandy beach ridge. Inland from one of these breaches is a fan with branched distributaries. Today its breach holds a pond that has been changing into a marsh. The 1960 fan deposits, as much as 60 cm thick, are traceable inland for 120 m from the breach. They rest on a pasture soil above two additional sand bodies, each atop its own buried soil. The earlier of the pre-1960 sand bodies probably dates to AD 1270-1400, in which case its age is not statistically different from that of a sand sheet previously dated elsewhere near Maullín. The breach likely originated then and has been freshened twice. Evidence that the breach was freshened in 1960 includes a near-basal interval of cobble-size clasts of sediment and soil, most of them probably derived from the organic fill of pre-1960 breach. The cobbly interval is overlain by sand with ripple-drift laminae that record landward flow. The fan of another breach near Maullín, at Chanhué, also provides stratigraphic evidence for recurrent tsunamis, though not necessarily for the repeated use of the breach. These findings were anticipated a half century ago by descrip- tion of paired breaches and fans that the 1960 Chilean tsunami produced in Japan. Breaches and their fans may provide lasting evidence for tsunami inundation of beach-ridge plains. The breaches might be detectable by remote sensing, and the thickness of the fan deposits might help them outlast an ordinary tsunami sand sheet. Keywords: Tsunami, Erosion, Deposition, Hazard, Chile.

Llanquihue

Phanerozoic strike-slip faulting in the continental interior platform of the United States: examples from the Laramide Orogen, Midcontinent, and Ancestral Rocky Mountains

The continental interior platform of the United States is that part of the North American craton where a thin veneer of Phanerozoic strata covers Precambrian crystalline basement. N- to NE-trending and W- to NW-trending fault zones, formed initially by Proterozoic/Cambrian rifting, break the crust of the platform into rectilinear blocks. These zones were reactivated during the Phanerozoic, most notably in the late Palaeozoic Ancestral Rockies event and the Mesozoic-Cenozoic Laramide orogeny — some remain active today. Dip-slip reactivation can be readily recognized in cross section by offset stratigraphic horizons and monoclinal fault-propagation folds. Strike-slip displacement is hard to document because of poor exposure. Though offset palaeochannels, horizontal slip lineations, and strain at fault bends locally demonstrate strike-slip offset, most reports of strike-slip movements for interior-platform faults are based on occurrence of map-view belts of en echelon faults and anticlines. Each belt overlies a basement-penetrating master fault, which typically splays upwards into a flower structure. In general, both strike-slip and dip-slip components of displacement occur in the same fault zone, so some belts of en echelon structures occur on the flanks of monoclinal folds. Thus, strike-slip displacement represents the lateral component of oblique fault reactivation; dip-slip and strike-slip components are the same order of magnitude (tens of metres to tens of kilometres). Effectively, faults with strike-slip components of displacement act as transfers accommodating jostling of rectilinear crustal blocks. In this context, the sense of slip on an individual strike-slip fault depends on block geometry, not necessarily on the trajectory of regional σ 1 . Strike-slip faulting in the North American interior differs markedly from that of southern and central Eurasia, possibly because of a contrast in lithosphere strength. Weak Eurasia strained significantly during the Alpine-Himalayan collision, forcing crustal blocks to undergo significant lateral escape. The strong North American craton strained relatively little during collisional-convergent orogeny, so crustal blocks underwent relatively small displacements.

Geological Society Special Publication

Eruptive history of Mount Katmai, Alaska

Mount Katmai has long been recognized for its caldera collapse during the great pyroclastic eruption of 1912 (which vented 10 km away at Novarupta in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes), but little has previously been reported about the geology of the remote ice-clad stratovolcano itself. Over several seasons, we reconnoitered all parts of the edifice and sampled most of the lava flows exposed on its flanks and caldera rim. The precipitous inner walls of the 1912 caldera remain too unstable for systematic sampling; so we provide instead a photographic and interpretive record of the wall sequences exposed. In contrast to the several andesite-dacite stratovolcanoes nearby, products of Mount Katmai range from basalt to rhyolite. Before collapse in 1912, there were two overlapping cones with separate vent complexes and craters; their products are here divided into eight sequences of lava flows, agglutinates, and phreatomagmatic ejecta. Latest Pleistocene and Holocene eruptive units include rhyodacite and rhyolite lava flows along the south rim; a major 22.8-ka rhyolitic plinian fall and ignimbrite deposit; a dacite-andesite zoned scoria fall; a thick sheet of dacite agglutinate that filled a paleocrater and draped the west side of the edifice; unglaciated leveed dacite lava flows on the southeast slope; and the Horseshoe Island dacite dome that extruded on the caldera floor after collapse. Pre-collapse volume of the glaciated Katmai edifice was ∼30 km 3 , and eruptive volume is estimated to have been 57±13 km 3 . The latter figure includes ∼40±6 km 3 for the edifice, 5±2 km 3 for off-edifice dacite pyroclastic deposits, and 12±5 km 3 for the 22.8-ka rhyolitic pyroclastic deposits. To these can be added 13.5 km 3 of magma that erupted at Novarupta in 1912, all or much of which is inferred to have been withdrawn from beneath Mount Katmai. The oldest part of the edifice exposed is a basaltic cone, which gave a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar plateau age of 89 ± 25 ka. The seismic record of caldera collapse includes 14 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0–7.0. By combining the times of earthquakes, the hours of downwind plinian-fall episodes from Novarupta, and the stratigraphic record of hydrothermal explosion breccia and phreatic mud layers ejected around the caldera rim and intercalated within the Novarupta pumice-fall sequence, it can be inferred that collapse began in the 11th hour of the 60-h-long eruption and continued fitfully for 3.5 days. Several big landslides and pumiceous debris flows shaken loose by the collapse-related seismicity are bracketed in time by their levels of intercalation within the Novarupta pumice-fall sequence. An intracaldera lake was ∼10 m deep by 1916, drained away in 1923, and has since deepened progressively to ∼250 m today. Compositionally, products of Mount Katmai represent an ordinary medium-K arc array, both tholeiitic and calcalkaline, that extends from 51.6% to 72.3% SiO 2 . Values of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr range from 0.70335 to 0.70372, correlating loosely with fractionation indices. The 5–6 km 3 of continuously zoned andesite-dacite magma (58%–68% SiO 2 ) that erupted at Novarupta in 1912 was withdrawn from beneath Mount Katmai and bears close compositional affinity with products of that edifice, not with pre-1912 products of the adjacent Trident cluster. Evidence is presented that the 7–8 km 3 of high-silica rhyolite (77% SiO 2 ) released in 1912 is unlikely to have been stored under Novarupta or Trident. Pre-eruptive contiguity with the andesite-dacite reservoir is suggested by (1) eruption of ∼3 km 3 of rhyolite magma first, followed by mutual mingling in fluctuating proportions; (2) thermal and redox continuity of the whole zoned sequence despite the wide compositional gap; (3) Nd, Sr, O isotopic, and rare earth element (REE) affinities of the whole array; (4) compositional continuity of the nearly aphyric rhyolite with the glass (melt) phase of the phenocryst-rich dacite; and (5) phase-equilibrium experiments that indicate similar shallow pre-eruptive storage depths (3–6 km) for rhyolite, dacite, and andesite.

Alaska

Shift in Global Tantalum Mine Production, 2000–2014

Introduction Tantalum has a unique set of properties that make it useful in a number of diverse applications. The ability of the metal to store and release electrical energy makes it ideally suited for use in certain types of capacitors that are widely used in modern electronics. Approximately 60 percent of global tantalum consumption is in the electronics industry. The ductility and corrosion resistance of the metal lends itself to application in the chemical processing industry, and its high melting point and high strength retention at elevated temperatures make it an important component of super alloys used in aircraft engines. As a major industrialized nation, the United States is a leading consumer of tantalum and tantalum-containing products. Domestic deposits typically are of low grade, and no tantalum has been recovered from mining activities in the United States since 1959. Consequently, the United States is nearly completely reliant on imports to meet its domestic consumption of tantalum for economic and national security needs. The recovery of tantalum from mine production is economically viable in only a few countries. Although developed countries dominated tantalum mine production in the early 2000s, production today is dominated by countries in the Great Lakes Region of Africa. There is concern that the sales of minerals, including columbite-tantalite or “coltan,” a mineral from which tantalum is derived, have helped finance rebel groups accused of violating human rights as part of the continuing armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries. These accusations have prompted the passage of legislation in the United States to curb the procurement of these mineral commodities, referred to as “conflict minerals,” from the DRC. Specifically, section 1502 of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Public Law 111–203, 124 Stat. 2213–2218) requires companies that source tantalum, tin, tungsten, and gold (3TG) to perform due diligence on their supply chains to determine if the materials they use originate from the DRC or adjoining countries (defined as sharing a border with the DRC). The DRC, Rwanda, and surrounding countries are not globally significant sources of tin, tungsten, or gold, accounting for only about 2 percent of the mined world supply for each of these elements. The region has, however, evolved to become the world’s largest producer of mined tantalum. A further complication of the production of tantalum stems from the opacity of the tantalum market. Unlike most base and precious metals, tantalum concentrates are not publicly traded through commodities exchanges but are bought and sold through networks of dealers and on contract between producers and consumers, some of whom may not provide accurate statistical data concerning the amounts, origins, and destination of the concentrates. Some price data can be found in trade journals or in other publications; however, there are no recognized official set exchange prices for either concentrate or tantalum metal. Because price is determined by negotiation between buyer and seller, published prices for concentrate are probably not representative of global prices paid for concentrate. The development of a mine-to-market supply-chain analysis is complicated and difficult because many of the industry participants that produce, trade, and consume tantalum do not publish statistical information, contracts are long term between miners and buyers, and much of the industry is vertically integrated. As a result of these and other considerations, tantalum is considered by many to be a “critical” commodity. This fact sheet identifies and addresses the major geographic shifts in the source of mine production of tantalum which have occurred over the past 15 years, some of the factors that drove this shift, and some of the related consequences. One of the activities of the U.S. Geological Survey National Minerals Information Center (USGS-NMIC) is to analyze global supply chains and characterize major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction through processing to first tier products. These analyses support the core mission of the USGS-NMIC as the Federal entity responsible for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of objective, unbiased, factual information on minerals essential to the U.S. economy and national security.

Fact Sheet

Mudstone sedimentation at high latitudes: Ice as a transport medium for mud and supplier of nutrients

Controls on mudstone deposition at high latitudes are poorly known relative to low latitudes. In recent sediments deposited in these environments, ice significantly influences sediment transport and primary productivity. The products of ice transport are relatively well known in glacimarine settings, but are less well known from below melting sea ice. This latter setting is significant as today it is associated with high primary organic productivity. The aim of this study is to assess how sea ice might have controlled lithofacies variability and organic-matter distribution and preservation in an ancient marine, siliciclastic mudstone-dominated succession deposited at high latitudes. Combined sedimentary logging, optical and electron optical (back-scatte red electron imagery), geochemical, and isotopic methods were used to determine sample variability in forty-five samples collected from the Lower Cretaceous succession in the Mikkelsen Bay State #1 borehole (North Slope, Alaska). The succession overall fines upward and contains muddy sandstones and sand- and silt-bearing, clay-rich mudstones towards its base in contrast to clay-rich and clay-dominated mudstones towards its top. Some of the mudstone units exhibit thin (< 5 mm), relic-beds that fine upward weakly. In some units small (0.5 mm), bed-parallel silt-filled microburrows disrupt depositional laminae whereas in others pervasive burrowing completely obliterates original depositional textures. Many of the units are pelleted. These mudstones are unusual in that they contain minor but very striking outsize grains, composed of subrounded to rounded sand and granule-size material. In addition, they are good petroleum source rocks, with between 2.8 and 5.9 wt % total organic carbon, of predominantly Type II kerogen. The organic matter has an isotopic signature ranging from -25.4??? ??13C to -28.1??? ??13C. Thin tuffs (< 20 mm) and carbonate-cemented units are also present. Given the absence of significant polar ice in the Early Cretaceous the outsized grains are interpreted to have been deposited from a combination of melting, dirty anchor, and fast ice. The mud fraction, which forms the bulk of the sediment, is interpreted to have been deposited from melting, sediment-laden frazil ice, and fast ice. After deposition sediments were partially reworked by bottom currents generated by brine rejection during sea ice formation. Sympagic organisms, grazing on algae and bacteria both within and below the ice, pelleted the sediment. Bioturbation, which varies through the succession, indicates that sedimentation probably occurred beneath a predominantly oxic or dysoxic water column. In this setting productivity was fueled by nutrients released from melting sea ice in the marginal ice zone. The good petroleum source potential of these mudstones is attributed to high organic productivity coupled to episodic and rapid sedimentation rather than existence of bottom-water anoxia linked to upwelling. Because sea-ice rafting was probably the dominant sediment transport mechanism it is not appropriate to use sequence stratigraphic methodology to predict lithofacies variability in this environment. Copyright ?? 2005, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Journal of Sedimentary Research

Submarine canyon sediment transport and accumulation during sea level highstand: Interactive seasonal regimes in the head of Astoria Canyon, WA

The majority of submarine canyons on Earth today do not directly intersect littoral or fluvial sediment sources, yet these systems are rarely studied. The shelf-incised head of Astoria Canyon receives sediment from the nearby Columbia River and is subject to energetic forcing from shelf and slope processes, making it an ideal site to evaluate the modern activity of canyons in high-stand sea level conditions. This study uses in-situ data from Astoria Canyon to identify the active sediment transport processes and patterns of accumulation in temperate canyon systems that are decoupled from their sediment sources during sea level highstand. Hydrodynamic data from a benthic tripod deployment in the head of Astoria Canyon shows that sediment resuspension and transport during summer is driven by internal tides and plume-associated nonlinear internal waves. Observations of shoreward-directed currents and low shear stresses (<0.14 Pa) along with sediment trap data suggest that seasonal loading of the canyon head occurs during summer. Nearby long-term wave data show that winter storm significant wave height often exceeds 10 m, driving shear stress capable of resuspending all grain sizes present within the canyon head. Swell events are generally concurrent with downwelling flows, providing a mechanism for episodic downcanyon sediment flux. Century-scale accumulation rates evaluated from sediment cores show slow accumulation in the upper canyon head, but rates progressively increase with depth to at least 300 m. The depositional environment in Astoria Canyon continues to respond to fluvial and oceanic forcing over an annual cycle. This study indicates that canyon heads can continue to function as sites of sediment winnowing and bottom boundary layer export even with a detached, shelf-depth canyon head.

Washington

Dynamics of a large, restless, rhyolitic magma system at Laguna del Maule, southern Andes, Chile

Explosive eruptions of large-volume rhyolitic magma systems are common in the geologic record and pose a major potential threat to society. Unlike other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, a large rhyolitic volcano may provide warning signs long before a caldera-forming eruption occurs. Yet, these signs&mdash;and what they imply about magma-crust dynamics&mdash;are not well known. This is because we have learned how these systems form, grow, and erupt mainly from the study of ash flow tuffs deposited tens to hundreds of thousands of years ago or more, or from the geophysical imaging of the unerupted portions of the reservoirs beneath the associated calderas. The Laguna del Maule Volcanic Field, Chile, includes an unusually large and recent concentration of silicic eruptions. Since 2007, the crust there has been inflating at an astonishing rate of at least 25 cm/yr. This unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of a large rhyolitic system while magma migration, reservoir growth, and crustal deformation are actively under way is stimulating a new international collaboration. Findings thus far lead to the hypothesis that the silicic vents have tapped an extensive layer of crystal-poor, rhyolitic melt that began to form atop a magmatic mush zone that was established by ca. 20 ka with a renewed phase of rhyolite eruptions during the Holocene. Modeling of surface deformation, magnetotelluric data, and gravity changes suggest that magma is currently intruding at a depth of ~5 km. The next phase of this investigation seeks to enlarge the sets of geophysical and geochemical data and to use these observations in numerical models of system dynamics.

Laguna del Maule Volcanic Field

Martian planetwide crater distributions: Implications for geologic history and surface processes

Population-density maps of craters in three size ranges (0.6 to 1.2 km, 4 to 10 km, and >20 km in diameter) were compiled for most of Mars from Mariner 9 imagery. These data provide: historical records of the eolian processes (0.6 to 1.2 km craters); stratigraphic, relative, and absolute timescales (4 to 10 km craters); and a history of the early postaccretional evolution of the uplands (> 20 km craters). Based on the distribution of large craters (>20 km diameters), Mars is divisible into two general classes of terrain, densely cratered and very lightly cratered—a division remarkably like the uplands-maria dichotomy of the moon. It is probable that this bimodal character in the density distribution of large craters arose from an abrupt transition in the impact flux rate from an early intense period associated with the tailing off of accretion to an extended quiescent epoch, not from a void in geological activity during much of Mars' history. Radio-isotope studies of Apollo lunar samples show that this transition occurred on the moon in a short time. The intermediate-sized craters (4 to 10 km diameter) and the small-sized craters (0.6 to 1.2 km diameter) appear to be genetically related. The smaller ones are apparently secondary impact craters generated by the former. Most of the craters in the larger of these two size classes appear fresh and uneroded, although many are partly buried by dust mantles. Poleward of the 40° parallels the small fresh craters are notably absent owing to these mantles. The density of small craters is highest in an irregular band centered at 20°S. This band coincides closely with (1) the zone of permanent low-albedo markings; (2) the “wind equator” (the latitude of zero net north or south transport at the surface); and (3) a band that includes a majority of the small dendritic channels. Situated in the southermost part of the equatorial unmantled terrain which extends from about 40°N to 40°S, this band is apparently devoid of even a thin mantle. Because this belt is also coincident with the latitutde of maximum solar insolation (periapsis occurs near summer solstice), we suggest that this band arises from the asymmetrical global wind patterns at the surface and that the band probably follows the latitude of maximum heating which migrates north and south from 25°N to 25°S within the unmantled terrain on a 50,000 year timescale. The population of intermediate-sized craters (4–10 km diameter) appears unaffected by the eolian mantles, at least within the ±45° latitudes. Hence the local density of these craters is probably a valid indicator of the relative age of surfaces generated during the period since the uplands were intensely bombarded and eroded. It now appears that the impact fluxes at Mars and the moon have been roughly the same over the last 4 b.y. because the oldest postaccretional, mare-like surfaces on Mars and the moon display about the same crater density. If so, the nearness of Mars to the asteroid belt has not generated a flux 10 to 25 times greater than the lunar flux. Whereas the lunar maria show a variation of about a factor of three in crater density from the oldest to the youngest major units, analogous surfaces on Mars show a variation between 30 and 50. This implies that periods of active eolian erosion, tectonic evolution, volcanic eruption, and possibly fluvial modification have been scattered throughout Martian history since the formation and degradation of the martian uplands and not confined to small, ancient or recent, epochs. These processes are surely active on the planet today.

Icarus

Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for Level 3 and 4 PSHAs - Experience gained from actual applications

In April 1997, after four years of deliberations, the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee released its report 'Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts' through the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as NUREG/CR-6372, hereafter SSHAC (1997). Known informally ever since as the 'SSHAC Guidelines', SSHAC (1997) addresses why and how multiple expert opinions - and the intrinsic uncertainties that attend them - should be used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA) for critical facilities such as commercial nuclear power plants. Ten years later, in September 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a 13-month agreement with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) titled 'Practical Procedures for Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines and for Updating PSHAs'. The NRC was interested in understanding and documenting lessons learned from recent PSHAs conducted at the higher SSHAC Levels (3 and 4) and in gaining input from the seismic community for updating PSHAs as new information became available. This study increased in importance in anticipation of new applications for nuclear power facilities at both existing and new sites. The intent of this project was not to replace the SSHAC Guidelines but to supplement them with the experience gained from putting the SSHAC Guidelines to work in practical applications. During the course of this project, we also learned that updating PSHAs for existing nuclear power facilities involves very different issues from the implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for new facilities. As such, we report our findings and recommendations from this study in two separate documents, this being the first. The SSHAC Guidelines were written without regard to whether the PSHAs to which they would be applied were site-specific or regional in scope. Most of the experience gained to date from high-level SSHAC studies has been for site-specific cases, although three ongoing (as of this writing) studies are regional in scope. Updating existing PSHAs will depend more critically on the differences between site-specific and regional studies, and we will also address these differences in more detail in the companion report. Most of what we report here and in the second report on updating PSHAs emanates from three workshops held by the USGS at their Menlo Park facility: 'Lessons Learned from SSHAC Level 3 and 4 PSHAs' on January 30-31, 2008; 'Updates to Existing PSHAs' on May 6-7, 2008; and 'Draft Recommendations, SSHAC Implementation Guidance' on June 4-5, 2009. These workshops were attended by approximately 40 scientists and engineers familiar with hazard studies for nuclear facilities. This company included four of the authors of SSHAC (1997) and four other experts whose contributions to this document are mentioned in the Acknowledgments section; numerous scientists and engineers who in one role or another have participated in one or more high-level SSHAC PSHAs summarized later in this report; and representatives of the nuclear industry, the consulting world, the regulatory community, and academia with a keen interest and expertise in hazard analysis. This report is a community-based set of recommendations to NRC for improved practical procedures for implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines. In an early publication specifically addressing the SSHAC Guidelines, Hanks (1997) noted that the SSHAC Guidelines were likely to evolve for some time to come, and this remains true today. While the broad philosophical and theoretical dimensions of the SSHAC Guidelines will not change, much has been learned during the past decade from various applications of the SSHAC Guidelines to real PSHAs in terms of how they are implemented. We anticipate that, in their practical applications, the SSHAC Guidelines will continue to evolve as more experience is gained from future SSHAC applications. Indeed, to the extent that every PSHA has its

Open-File Report

Distribution and composition of sulfide minerals at Balmat, New York

In the Balmat area in northern New York , tabular deposits of sulfide minerals parallel the layering in folded, siliceous magnesian marbles of a metamorphic complex commonly referred to as the Precambrian Granville Series. Sphalerite, pyrite, and, locally, pyrrhotite and galena have replaced the carbonate minerals in parts of the marble units. The contacts between ore and marble are, in general, ill-defined; scattered grains of sulfides are present from several inches to hundreds of feet from the massive portions of ore. Access to the ore is provided through the Balmat No. 2 and No. 3 mines. The isotopic composition of lead from primary galena is uniform within an individual mine. The model age of this lead agrees with the age of the mineralization determined by other means - about a billion years. The isotopic composition of the leads in the marble is not uniform today, and calculations indicate that it was probably not uniform a billion years ago. Unless the lead in the ores is a uniform mixture of lead isotopes from an isotopically poorly mixed source, it is doubtful that the lead in the ores was derived from the surrounding marbles. Cobalt and nickel concentrations in pyrite from grains disseminated in the metasedimentary rocks away from the ore bodies are each greater than 200 ppm. Most samples of pyrite from the ore bodies at the No. 2 and No. 3 mines contain less than 50 ppm each of cobalt and nickel. Therefore the author believes it unlikely that the pyrite of the ores is genetically related to the pyrite in the metasedimentary rocks. Textural relationships suggest that pyrrhotite formed after most of the sphalerite, which in turn formed after most of the pyrite in the ore bodies. By use of the experimentally determined systems FeS-ZnS and FeS-FeS 2 , it is inferred from the amounts of iron in sphalerite and sulfur in pyrrhotite that the bulk of the sulfide minerals in the No. 2 mine formed above 320° C. The absolute temperature of formation of pyrrhotite indicated by the FeS-ZnS system is about 150° higher than that indicated by the FeS-FeS 2 system. The former system probably gives the more reliable estimate. The concentrations of individual minor elements in sphalerite and pyrite range considerably among specimens of the same sulfide mineral from the same level and ore body. An exception is cadmium in sphalerite which has a narrow concentration range around 1400 ppm in both the No. 2 and No. 3 mines. The ratio of the concentrations of minor elements between sphalerite-pyrite pairs varies considerably also. This variation probably indicates that exchange of minor elements between pyrite and sphalerite durin g the formation of the ores was very slow and incomplete.

New York

Simulation of hydraulic characteristics in the white sturgeon spawning habitat of the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho

Hydraulic characterization of the Kootenai River, especially in the white sturgeon spawning habitat reach, is needed by the Kootenai River White Sturgeon Recovery Team to promote hydraulic conditions that improve spawning conditions for the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Kootenai River. The decreasing population and spawning failure of white sturgeon has led to much concern. Few wild juvenile sturgeons are found in the river today. Determining the location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water in the Kootenai River is a primary focus for biologists who believe that hydraulic changes at the transition affect the location where the sturgeon choose to spawn. The Kootenai River begins in British Columbia, Canada, and flows through Montana, Idaho, and back into British Columbia. The 65.6-mile reach of the Kootenai River in Idaho was studied. The study area encompasses the white sturgeon spawning reach that has been designated as a critical habitat. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model of the study reach was developed, calibrated, and used to develop relations between hydraulic characteristics and water-surface elevation, discharge, velocity, and backwater extent. The model used 164 cross sections, most of which came from a previous river survey conducted in 2002-03. The model was calibrated to water-surface elevations at specific discharges at five gaging stations. Calibrated water-surface elevations ranged from about 1,743 to about 1,759 feet, and discharges used in calibration ranged from 5,000 to 47,500 cubic feet per second. Model calibration was considered acceptable when the difference between measured and simulated water-surface elevations was ?0.15 foot or less. Measured and simulated average velocities also were compared. These comparisons indicated agreement between measured and simulated values. The location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water was determined using the calibrated model. The model was used to simulate hydraulic characteristics for a range of water-surface elevations from 1,741 to 1,762 feet and discharges from 4,000 to 75,000 cubic feet per second. These simulated hydraulic characteristics were used to develop a three-parameter relation-discharge in the study reach, water-surface elevation at Kootenai River at Porthill gaging station (12322000), and the location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water. Simulated hydraulic characteristics produced backwater locations ranging from river mile (RM) 105.6 (Porthill) to RM 158 (near Crossport), a span of about 52 miles. However, backwater locations from measured data ranged primarily from RM 152 to RM 157, a 5-mile span. The average backwater location from measured data was at about RM 154. Three-parameter relations also were developed for determining the amount of discharge in the Shorty Island side channel and average velocity at selected cross sections in the study reach. Simulated discharge for the side channel relative to measured data ranged from 0 to about 5,500 cubic feet per second, and simulated average velocity relative to measured data ranged from 0 to about 3.5 feet per second. Relations using other hydraulic, sediment/incipient motion, ecological, and biological characteristics also could be developed. The relations also can be used in real time by accessing data from the Web. Discharge and stage data for two gaging stations, Tribal Hatchery (12310100) and Porthill (12322500), are available from the Idaho U.S. Geological Survey web page (URL: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/id/nwis/current/?type=flow). Because the coordinate axes of the three-parameter relations use discharge from the Tribal Hatchery gaging station and water-surface elevation from the Porthill gaging station, the location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water can be determined for current conditions using the real-time data. Similarly, discharge in the Shorty Island side channel and (or) average velocity at selected cross sections also can be determined for current conditions.

British Columbia;Idaho;Montana

Mineralization of breccia pipes in northern Arizona

The Paleozoic sedimentary rocks on the Colorado Plateau of northern Arizona are host to hundreds ofbreccia pipes. The uranium and copper deposits in these breccia pipes transgress formation boundaries from the Mississippian Redwall Limestone to the Triassic Chinle Formation. They are not classic breccia pipes in that there is no volcanic rock associated with them in time or space. They are the result of solution-collapse within the Redwall Limestone and stoping of the overlying strata. The karst development in the Redwall Limestone began in the Mississippian and apparently either continued to the Triassic or was at least once again active during that time. The mineralization apparently occurred shortly thereafter, sometime during the Mesozoic. Mining activity in breccia pipes of the Grand Canyon region began during the nineteenth century and continues today with the operation of the Hack I, II, and III mines, although the exploited commodity has changed from Cu to U. Although small in size, these pipes contain samples with up to 55 percent U 3 O 8 and can yield ore averaging between 0.30 and 0.60 percent U 3 O 8 .Mineralization at the surface commonly occurs within nodules and concretions associated with pyrite and goethite and along fractures, while the primary ore of the unoxidized zones is commonly within a comminuted sandstone matrix surrounding breccia fragments of overlying formations. The ore mineral is uraninite, although associated with it are sphalerite, galena, chalcopyrite, tennantite, millerite, siegenite, and/molybdenite. Some of the surface nodules are encrusted with malachite and are exceptionally enriched in Ag. Pyrite is abundant, and the organic carbon content of some rocks is high enough to suggest that it, along with the pyrite, may be a reductant for uranium. In contrast, it is possible, if uranium were transported as a bicarbonate or carbonate complex, that only a conduit of brecciated rock was necessary to release CO 2 , thus disrupting the equilibrium and allowing uraninite to precipitate. An extensive suite of elements is significantly enriched in the mineralized rock: Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Sr, U, V, Zn, and the rare earth elements. Of these, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag, and particularly As appear to be the best geochemical indicators of mineralized pipes. At present the origin of the mineralizing fluids is not known. The lack of extensive silification within the breccia, along with the 80 degrees to 173 degrees C fluid inclusion-filling temperatures on sphalerite, dolomite, quartz, and calcite, suggests relatively low-temperature mineralizing fluids, although heated in excess of what would be expected from the normal geothermal gradient on the Colorado Plateau. With the exception of the U-mineralized rock, the mineral assemblage and geochemistry is similar to Mississippi Valley-type deposits.

Economic Geology

Concentrations, loads, and sources of polychlorinated biphenyls, Neponset River and Neponset River Estuary, eastern Massachusetts

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are known to contaminate the Neponset River, which flows through parts of Boston, Massachusetts, and empties into the Neponset River Estuary, an important fish-spawning area. The river is dammed and impassable to fish. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game, Division of Ecological Restoration, Riverways Program, collected, analyzed, and interpreted PCB data from bottom-sediment, water, and (or) fish-tissue samples in 2002, 2004-2006. Samples from the Neponset River and Neponset River Estuary were analyzed for 209 PCB congeners, PCB homologs, and Aroclors. In order to better assess the overall health quality of river-bottom sediments, sediment samples were also tested for concentrations of 31 elements. PCB concentrations measured in the top layers of bottom sediment ranged from 28 nanograms per gram (ng/g) just upstream of the Mother Brook confluence to 24,900 ng/g measured in Mother Brook. Concentrations of elements in bottom sediment were generally higher than background concentrations and higher than levels considered toxic to benthic organisms according to freshwater sediment-quality guidelines defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Concentrations of dissolved PCBs in water samples collected from the Neponset River (May 13, 2005 to April 28, 2006) averaged about 9.2 nanograms per liter (ng/L) (annual average of monthly values); however, during the months of August (about 16.5 ng/L) and September (about 15.6 ng/L), dissolved PCB concentrations were greater than 14 ng/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's freshwater continuous chronic criterion for aquatic organisms. Concentrations of PCBs in white sucker (fillets and whole fish) were all greater than 2,000 ng/g wet wt, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guideline for safe consumption of fish: PCB concentrations measured in fish-tissue samples collected from the Tileston and Hollingsworth and Walter Baker Impoundments were 3,490 and 2,450 ng/g wet wt (filleted) and 6,890 and 4,080 ng/g wet wt (whole fish). Total PCB-congener concentrations measured in the whole bodies of estuarine bait fish (common mummichog) averaged 708 ng/g wet wt. PCBs that pass from the Neponset River to the Neponset River Estuary are either dissolved or associated with particulate matter (including living and nonliving material) suspended in the water column. A small proportion of PCBs may also be transported as part of the body burden of fish and wildlife. During the period May 13, 2005 to April 28, 2006, about 5,100 g (3.8 L or 1 gal) of PCBs were transported from the Neponset River to the Neponset River Estuary. Generally, about one-half of these PCBs were dissolved in the water column and the other half were associated with particulate matter; however, the proportion that was either dissolved or particulate varied seasonally. Most PCBs transported from the river to the estuary are composed of four or fewer chlorine atoms per biphenyl molecule. The data suggest that widespread PCB contamination of the lower Neponset River originated from Mother Brook, a Neponset River tributary, starting sometime around the early 1950s or earlier. In 1955, catastrophic dam failure caused by flooding likely released PCB-contaminated sediment downstream and into the Neponset River Estuary. PCBs from this source area likely continued to be released after the flood and during subsequent rebuilding of downstream dams. Today (2007), PCBs are mostly trapped behind these dams; however, some PCBs either diffuse or are entrained back into the water column and are transported downstream by river water into the estuary or volatilize into the atmosphere. In addition to the continuing release of PCBs from historically contaminated bottom sediment, PCBs are still (2007) originating from source areas along Mother and Meadow Brook as well as other sources along the river and Boston Harbor. PCBs from the river (transported by river water) and from the harbor (transported by tidal action) appear to have contaminated parts of the Neponset River Estuary.

Massachusetts