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Chapter 4: The GIS Project for the Geologic Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Upper Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor Groups, Western Gulf Province, Texas

A geographic information system (GIS) focusing on the Upper Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor Groups in the Gulf Coast region was developed as a visual-analysis tool for the U.S. Geological Survey's 2003 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources in the Western Gulf Province. The Central Energy Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey has also developed an Internet Map Service to deliver the GIS data to the general public. This mapping tool utilizes information from a database about the oil and natural gas endowment of the United States - including physical locations of geologic and geographic data - and converts the data into visual layers. Portrayal and analysis of geologic features on an interactive map provide an excellent tool for understanding domestic oil and gas resources for strategic planning, formulating economic and energy policies, evaluating lands under the purview of the Federal Government, and developing sound environmental policies. Assessment results can be viewed and analyzed or downloaded from the internet web site.

Data Series↗

Hydrogeologic information in the Great Lakes basin, United States, and application of a geographic information system to public supply wells and hazardous-waste sites

A computerized data base has been established to facilitate analysis and interpretation of potential for ground-water contamination in the Great Lakes basin. The computerized data base is being used in conjunction with a geogrpahic information system (GIS). Locations of public-supply wells were obtained from Federal and State agencies and stored in the system. Well locations are displayed using the Albers equal-area projection. A GIS was used to create a map of public-supply wells and a map of combined waste sites and public-supply wells. A comprehensive bibliography of 1,114 references, published during the period 1960-86, pertaining to hydrogeologic studies in the Great Lakes basin and geographic information systems, has been compiled using a relational data-base program. Where possible, references are indexed by State and county to assist in determining areas where additional study is necessary.

Great Lakes basin↗

Expressed MHC class II genes in sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from geographically disparate populations

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is central to maintaining the immunologic vigor of individuals and populations. Classical MHC class II genes were targeted for partial sequencing in sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) from populations in California, Washington, and Alaska. Sequences derived from sea otter peripheral blood leukocyte mRNAs were similar to those classified as DQA , DQB , DRA , and DRB in other species. Comparisons of the derived amino acid compositions supported the classification of these as functional molecules from at least one DQA , DQB , and DRA locus and at least two DRB loci. While limited in scope, phylogenetic analysis of the DRB peptide‐binding region suggested the possible existence of distinct clades demarcated by geographic region. These preliminary findings support the need for additional MHC gene sequencing and expansion to a comprehensive study targeting additional otters.

Tissue Antigens↗

Genetic and morphological characterization of the freshwater mussel clubshell species complex (Pleurobema clava and Pleurobema oviforme) to inform conservation planning

The shell morphologies of the freshwater mussel species Pleurobema clava (federally endangered) and Pleurobema oviforme (species of concern) are similar, causing considerable taxonomic confusion between the two species over the last 100 years. While P. clava was historically widespread throughout the Ohio River basin and tributaries to the lower Laurentian Great Lakes, P. oviforme was confined to the Tennessee and the upper Cumberland River basins. We used two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes, 13 novel nuclear DNA microsatellite markers, and shell morphometrics to help resolve this taxonomic confusion. Evidence for a single species was apparent in phylogenetic analyses of each mtDNA gene, revealing monophyletic relationships with minimal differentiation and shared haplotypes. Analyses of microsatellites showed significant genetic structuring, with four main genetic clusters detected, respectively, in the upper Ohio River basin, the lower Ohio River and Great Lakes, and upper Tennessee River basin, and a fourth genetic cluster, which included geographically intermediate populations in the Ohio and Tennessee river basins. While principal components analysis (PCA) of morphometric variables (i.e., length, height, width, and weight) showed significant differences in shell shape, only 3% of the variance in shell shape was explained by nominal species. Using Linear Discriminant and Random Forest (RF) analyses, correct classification rates for the two species' shell forms were 65.5% and 83.2%, respectively. Random Forest classification rates for some populations were higher; for example, for North Fork Holston (HOLS), it was >90%. While nuclear DNA and shell morphology indicate that the HOLS population is strongly differentiated, perhaps indicative of cryptic biodiversity, we consider the presence of a single widespread species the most likely biological scenario for many of the investigated populations based on our mtDNA dataset. However, additional sampling of P. oviforme populations at nuclear loci is needed to corroborate this finding.

Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, ↗

Regional differentiation among populations of the Diamondback terrapin ( Malaclemys terrapin )

The Diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is a brackish-water turtle species whose populations have been fragmented due to anthropogenic activity such as development of coastal habitat and entrapment in commercial blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishing gear. Genetic analyses can improve conservation efforts for the long-term protection of the species. We used microsatellite DNA analysis to investigate levels of gene flow among and genetic variability within 21 geographically separate collections of the species distributed from Massachusetts to Texas. Quantified levels of genetic variability (allelic diversity, genotypic frequencies, and heterozygosity) revealed three zones of genetic discontinuity, resulting in four discrete populations: Northeast Atlantic, Coastal Mid-Atlantic, Florida and Texas/Louisiana. The average number of alleles and expected heterozygosity for the four genetic clusters were N A = 6.54 and H E = 0.050, respectively. However, the geographic boundaries of the populations did not correspond to accepted terrapin subspecies limits. Our results illuminate not only the need to sample terrapins in additional sites, specifically in the southeast, but also the necessity for allowing uninterrupted gene flow among population groupings to preserve current levels of genetic diversity.

Conservation Genetics↗

Assessment of peak flow scaling and Its effect on flood quantile estimation in the United Kingdom

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) methods are essential tools to assess flood hazard and plan interventions for its mitigation. They are used to estimate flood quantiles when the at‐site record of streamflow data is not available or limited. One commonly used RFFA method is the index flood method (IFM), which assumes that peak floods satisfy the simple scaling hypothesis. In this work we present an integrated approach to assess the spatial scaling behavior of floods in the United Kingdom (UK) for 540 catchments, where the IFM is currently used operationally. This assessment employs product moments, probability weighted moments, and quantile analysis, and is applied to two different types of “hydrologically homogeneous” UK regions: geographical regions as defined in the Flood Studies Report (NERC, 1975) and pooling‐groups as defined in the updated Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH; Institute of Hydrology, 1999). To understand which variables play a significant role in the flood‐peak generating mechanism, the assessment approach considers scaling not only of drainage area alone but also of other hydro‐geomorphological variables. Results provided by the different methodologies consistently showed that only part (ranging from 30% to 70%) of the peak flow variability is explained by drainage area alone; this fraction increases (up to 80%–95%) when multiple regression is used. Supported by the peak flow spatial scaling assessment, we compared the proposed approach for peak flow quantile estimation with the current FEH method in ungauged catchments. The quantile regression method based on the pooling‐group outperforms the current FEH‐ungauged method, providing a 14% relative improvement in root mean square error over the entire country.

Water Resources Research↗

Comparative geology and geochemistry of sedimentary-rock-hosted (Carlin Type) gold deposits in the People's Republic of China and in Nevada, USA

Sedimentary-rock-hosted (Carlin-type) gold deposits have been considered economically significant and geologically distinct since the early 1960's. This report consists of a nine-part text and an interactive database. This small database is to help Western companies get more information about these gold deposits in China, and to help geologists who are interested in world Carlin-type deposits conduct research on them. Because of their economic significance and geological distinctiveness, these deposits have caught the interest of economic geologists all over the world since the early 1960's. Similar deposits have been discovered in China, Australia, Dominican Republic, Spain, and Russia besides Nevada. Perhaps most significant are the 165 Carlin-type gold deposits that were found in southwest China during the past 15 years. Of these, at least 19 deposits have proven to be of substantial tonnage, making China the second leading country to exploit such deposits. With the increasing interest in Chinese Carlin-type gold deposits, some western companies and geologists desire to get more information about these Chinese deposits. This seems to have been very difficult because the literature was in Chinese. It is estimated that several hundred scientific publications (including papers, books, and technical reports) have been published. This database of Chinese Carlin-type Gold deposits is built on the documentation published during the most recent 10 years and includes six subjects, which consist of 165 records and 30 fields. A new Proterozoic-age sedimentary-rock-hosted gold deposit in northeastern P.R. China also is described. Note that for the old version 1.1 on the CD-ROM, the latitude and longitude locations of the mineral occurrences have been estimated from sketch maps and journal articles and are not intended for digital analysis. One of the improvements in this version 1.2 is the accuracy of geographic data. Version 1.3 updates to the database and includes maps and photos of deposits, deposit information and a geochemical model. See the version history for details.

Open-File Report↗

Land-Cover Change in the Southern Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, 1940-2002

The Lake Tahoe basin has been subject to significant landscape-altering human activity since the mid-1850s; in particular, widespread timber harvest from the 1850s to 1920s and urban development from the 1950s to the present. The consequences of changes such as impacted water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard resulting from modern activity have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The goal of this project is to map, quantify, and describe the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin for the period from 1940 to 2002 in an effort to establish an understanding of regional landscape change. This map shows areas of land-use/land-cover change in a 279-km2 portion of the Lake Tahoe basin identified using change-detection analysis of multitemporal land-use/land-cover datasets for four dates (1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002), which yielded three periods for analysis. Land use/land cover was mapped using manual (visual) interpretation techniques in a geographic information system (GIS) from multiple imagery sources: black-and-white digital orthophotos for 1940 and 1969, natural-color digital orthophotos for 1987, and IKONOS multispectral satellite imagery for 2002. The landscape was classified using a 0.4-hectare (1-acre) minimum mapping unit and a hierarchical classification system. Impervious-surface data was derived directly from the 2002 IKONOS imagery on a per-pixel basis using digital image processing and GIS data integration.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times for selected bridge crossings. Some areas of concern near the city of Lawton, if a dam breach occurs at Lakes Ellsworth or Lawtonka, include water treatment plants, wastewater treatment plants, recreational areas, and community-services offices.

Oklahoma↗

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for selected dams in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and near Atoka, Oklahoma

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and storage of water supplies, but they also entail risk; dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or improper operation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning an emergency response if a dam breach occurs. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Oklahoma City to model dam-breach scenarios at 11 dams controlled and operated by Oklahoma City, Okla., and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the City of Oklahoma City with completion of the emergency action plans for the 11 dams, the U.S. Geological Survey used light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data (2004), which produced a 2-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains around Oklahoma City. A 5-meter Digital Terrain Map was used to model the flood plain below Atoka Reservoir in southeastern Oklahoma. Digital-elevation models, field survey measurements, hydraulic data, and hydrologic data (U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations North Canadian River below Lake Overholser near Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241000], and North Canadian River at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Okla. [07241520]), were used as inputs for the one-dimensional dynamic (unsteady-flow) models using Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software. The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood dam-breach scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times at selected bridge crossings. Points of interest such as community-services offices, recreational areas, water-treatment plants, and wastewater-treatment plants were identified on the flood-inundation maps.

Oklahoma↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in an embayment in Hempstead Harbor on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked collaboratively with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering Hempstead Harbor, an embayment on the northern shore of Nassau County, Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the harbor and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, surrounding land use, and additional water-quality data (including nutrient and stable isotopes of nitrate analyses) for the location where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Our analysis revealed an abundance of human and canine fecal contamination throughout the Hempstead Harbor landscape and that water from municipal separate storm sewer system conveyances was the most likely transport mechanism of this fecal contamination. Resuspension of bed sediment may contribute to fecal contamination in the harbor, but more targeted analyses are needed to support this finding. There was little evidence of groundwater-contributing fecal bacteria by direct discharge from the subsurface. A classification scheme was developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers. Based on this classification scheme, the culvert at Glenwood Road and the outfall and the spillway at Skillman Street were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to Hempstead Harbor.

New York↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify contamination sources in Port Jefferson Harbor, Setauket Harbor, and Conscience Bay on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering Port Jefferson Harbor, Setauket Harbor, and Conscience Bay, an embayment complex on the northern shore of Suffolk County, Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the harbor and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, and surrounding land use where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Our analysis revealed that the most substantial source of fecal contamination to the Port Jefferson Harbor complex was discharge from sites draining ponds and wetlands, particularly during the summer months. Fecal coliform bacteria at sites where ponds and wetlands drain are increased by stormwater runoff, which is another substantial source of fecal contamination. Human markers, likely originating from the outfall of the Port Jefferson sewage treatment plant, were found at least once in every sample collected within Port Jefferson Harbor; however, fecal coliform concentrations were low, indicating that the sewage treatment plant is not a likely source of fecal contamination to the embayment. Canine markers detected in Conscience Bay were associated with high fecal coliform, particularly in wet summer samples. Waterfowl markers were most often detected in source water for Port Jefferson Harbor, but in Conscience Bay, waterfowl was frequently detected within the bay itself. Resuspension of bed sediment may contribute to fecal contamination in the harbor, but more targeted analyses are needed to support this finding. There was little evidence of groundwater-contributing fecal bacteria by direct discharge from the subsurface. A classification scheme was developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers. Based on this classification scheme, the Culvert North of State Route 25A, Culvert North of Shore Road, Old Mill Creek Culvert, and Mill Pond Culvert to Conscience Bay sites were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to the Port Jefferson Harbor complex.

New York↗

A decision support system for prioritizing forested wetland restoration in the Yazoo Backwater Area, Mississippi

A working prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed for the Yazoo Backwater Area, Mississippi, to help planners and managers prioritize, plan, conduct, and optimize forested wetland restoration activities. The DSS comprises geographic information system (GIS) spatial data themes, application programs that provide a cumulative analysis of the relative ability of sites to function as wetlands, and output data that are specific to a given restoration analysis scenario. The DSS input includes GIS data themes such as geomorphology, soils, land use, elevation, farmed wetlands, flood frequency, topographic depressions, streams, public lands, roads, and permanent water bodies, which can be used as spatial templates to define areal hydrologic settings. These GIS data themes can then be ranked and combined to estimate the relative suitability of a potential wetland restoration site, thereby, determining relative wetland equivalence on the landscape. The GIS applications used in this DSS perform the following three functions: assess the ecology (the Eco-Assessor); reclassify land-use in areas selected for restoration (the Tree-Translator); and generate output data to compare restoration scenarios (the Parameter-Generator). Areas selected for reforestation are translated (in the GIS) into ?forested? land use, and the tree species that are ?planted? on the landscape (in the DSS) either compose an ecologically optimal or an economically optimal community of tree species. Output from the DSS can be compared and analyzed by using economic, statistical, graphical, and tabular methods. Output data for seven selected scenarios were generated for the Yazoo Backwater Area and are presented as examples to illustrate the flexibility of the DSS to identify areas that meet restoration objectives.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

North Alaska petroleum system analysis: The regional map compilation

The U.S. Geological Survey initiated an effort to model north Alaskan petroleum systems. The geographic and geologic basis for modeling systems is provided by a set of regional digital maps that allow evaluation of the widest possible extent of each system. Accordingly, we laid out a rectangular map grid 1300 km (800 miles) east-west and 600 km (375 miles) north-south. The resulting map area extends from the Yukon Territory of Canada on the east to the Russian-U.S. Chukchi Sea on the west and from the Brooks Range on the south to the Canada basin-Chukchi borderland on the north. Within this map region, we combined disparate types of publicly available data to produce structure contour maps. Data types range from seismic-based mapping as in the National Petroleum Reserve to well penetrations in areas of little or no seismic data where extrapolation was required. With these types of data, we produced structure contour maps on three horizons: top of pre-Mississippian (basement), top of Triassic (Ellesmerian sequence), and top of Neocomian (Beaufortian sequence). These horizons, when combined with present-day topography and bathymetry, provide the bounding structural/stratigraphic surfaces of the north Alaskan petroleum province that mark major defining moments of the region's geologic history and allow regional portrayal of preserved sediment accumulations.

Alaska, Yukon↗

Microsatellite DNA variation Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) and cross-species amplification the Acipenseridae

O verharvest and habitat alteration have led to a collapse of most commercial Atlantic sturgeon( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus )fisheries while pushing the species to rarity or extirpation in most of its historical range. A biologically sound conservation program for this species requires knowledge of its genetic diversity and of the evolutionary relationships among geographic populations. To address these research needs, six microsatellite loci were isolated from A. o. oxyrinchus . Pedigree analysis suggested that all are inherited in a codominant Mendelian pattern. The six loci were tested in ten additional sturgeon species from three genera and three apparent ploidy levels (4n, 8n, 16n). Approximately 70% of successful locus-species amplifications were polymorphic. Polysomy was observed most often in 8n and 16n species. Genetic diversity and population structure of A. o. oxyrinchus were assayed using three polymorphic Aox markers and four markers developed from lake sturgeon ( A. fulvescens ). A. o. oxyrinchus were sampled from the Altamaha River, Georgia, USA north to the St. Lawrence River, Quebec, Canada. Gulf sturgeon, A. o. desotoi , were sampled from the Suwannee River, Florida, USA, to assess differentiation between the subspecies. Seventy-seven alleles were observed to segregate into unique multilocus genotypes for each of the 392 individuals assayed. Mean diversity was greatest in the Chesapeake Bay (9.7 alleles per locus) and Delaware River (7.4 alleles per locus) collections, and lowest in the St. Lawrence River (4.6 alleles per locus). Mean heterozygosity across seven loci ranged from 44.3% (St. Lawrence River) to 62.6% (Altamaha River). Significant allelic heterogeneity was observed in 82% of pairwise comparisons as well as a global test (p < 0.0001) for A. o. oxyrinchus collections. Genetic distance suggests the presence of at least six subpopulations in A. o. oxyrinchus : St. Lawrence River, St. John River, Hudson River, Delaware River, Albemarle Sound, and Altamaha River. Genetic and geographic distances were positively correlated (r = 0.57, p < 0.03) among A. o. oxyrinchus , suggesting isolation by distance and philopatry. Hierarchical gene diversity analysis indicated significant genetic population structure at every level. Maximum likelihood assignment tests correctly assigned individual fish to collection with a high rate of success (mean = 87.5%); this and other lines of evidence indicated that the Chesapeake Bay collection represents a mixed population of sub-adult sturgeon from northern and southern Atlantic coast populations. Population structure was correlated with that suggested by earlier mitochondrial (mt) DNA analyses. Significant diversity was observed between two Canadian populations from which only a single mt DNA haplotype has been reported.

Conservation Genetics↗

Geographic deaggregation of seismic hazard in the United States

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States (http://geohazards. cr.usgs.gov/eq/) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Landscape genetics reveals unique and shared effects of urbanization for two sympatric pool-breeding amphibians

Metapopulation-structured species can be negatively affected when landscape fragmentation impairs connectivity. We investigated the effects of urbanization on genetic diversity and gene flow for two sympatric amphibian species, spotted salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum ) and wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), across a large (>35,000 km 2 ) landscape in Maine, USA, containing numerous natural and anthropogenic gradients. Isolation-by-distance (IBD) patterns differed between the species. Spotted salamanders showed a linear and relatively high variance relationship between genetic and geographic distances ( r = .057, p < .001), whereas wood frogs exhibited a strongly nonlinear and lower variance relationship ( r = 0.429, p < .001). Scale dependence analysis of IBD found gene flow has its most predictable influence (strongest IBD correlations) at distances up to 9 km for spotted salamanders and up to 6 km for wood frogs. Estimated effective migration surfaces revealed contrasting patterns of high and low genetic diversity and gene flow between the two species. Population isolation, quantified as the mean IBD residuals for each population, was associated with local urbanization and less genetic diversity in both species. The influence of geographic proximity and urbanization on population connectivity was further supported by distance-based redundancy analysis and multiple matrix regression with randomization. Resistance surface modeling found interpopulation connectivity to be influenced by developed land cover, light roads, interstates, and topography for both species, plus secondary roads and rivers for wood frogs. Our results highlight the influence of anthropogenic landscape features within the context of natural features and broad spatial genetic patterns, in turn supporting the premise that while urbanization significantly restricts interpopulation connectivity for wood frogs and spotted salamanders, specific landscape elements have unique effects on these two sympatric species.

Maine↗

Capture-recapture studies for multiple strata including non-markovian transitions

We consider capture-recapture studies where release and recapture data are available from each of a number of strata on every capture occasion. Strata may, for example, be geographic locations or physiological states. Movement of animals among strata occurs with unknown probabilities, and estimation of these unknown transition probabilities is the objective. We describe a computer routine for carrying out the analysis under a model that assumes Markovian transitions and under reduced parameter versions of this model. We also introduce models that relax the Markovian assumption and allow 'memory' to operate (i.e., allow dependence of the transition probabilities on the previous state). For these models, we sugg st an analysis based on a conditional likelihood approach. Methods are illustrated with data from a large study on Canada geese (Branta canadensis) banded in three geographic regions. The assumption of Markovian transitions is rejected convincingly for these data, emphasizing the importance of the more general models that allow memory.

Biometrics↗