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USGS2003

Sustainable Land Use Requires Attention to Ecological Signals

This case study details the difficulties of landscape management, highlighting the challenges inherent in managing natural resources when multiple agencies are involved, when the land users have no incentive for conservation, and when government agencies have too few resources for effective management. Pumping of groundwater from the aquifer of La Costa de Hermosillo in the state of Sonora, Mexico, began in 1945 and developed so quickly that by the late 1950s salinity intrusion from the Gulf of California was occurring in the wells. In the 1970s, the irrigatable land in La Costa peaked at 132,516 ha and the extracted volume of water from the aquifer peaked at around 1.14 billion cubic meters annually. By the 1980s, 105 wells of the total of 498 were contaminated with seawater and, therefore, identified for closure. At present La Costa de Hermosillo still represents 15% of the total harvested land, 16% of the total annual production, and 23% of the gross agricultural production of the state of Sonora. However, there are approximately 80,000 ha of abandoned fields due to salt water intension, lack of water and/or lack of credit available to individual farmers. This unstable situation resulted from the interplay of water management policies and practices, and farm-land policies and practices. While government agencies have been able to enforce better water use for agricultural production, there remains a significant area that requires restoration from its degraded state. For this piece of the ecosystem management puzzle, government agencies have thus far been unable to affect a solution.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2002

Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater

Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life—and these are costly, if not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the “sinks” into which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2020

Cascadia Margin cold seeps: Subduction zone fluids, gas hydrates, and chemosynthetic habitats

Priority Geographic Area: The outer continental shelf and upper continental slope from Canada/U.S. border offshore Washington State to the Mendocino Fracture Zone (Northern California), entirely within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), from the outermost shelf to at least 2000 m water depth (Figure 1). Description of Priority Area: Since 2015, over a thousand water column gas plumes originating at seafloor gas seeps have been discovered landward of the Cascadia deformation front (e.g., Embley et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2015, 2019; Merle and Embley, 2016; NA-95 Cruise Report, 2018; Riedel et al., 2018), adding to those that had long been known on Hydrate Ridge (e.g., Heeschen et al., 2003; Tréhu et al., 2004). The recently-discovered seeps stretch from offshore Vancouver Island to the Mendocino Fracture Zone and from the outer shelf to ~2000 m water depth, occurring both landward and seaward of the nominal limit for gas hydrate stability zone on the upper continental slope (Figure 1). Hundreds of seeps likely remain undiscovered. Water column imaging is incomplete both within the target geographic area and farther seaward, between the 2000 m isobath and the deformation front, which is the subject of an imaging study described in a white paper by Watt et al. The recently-discovered Cascadia Margin cold seeps partially overlap an important active margin gas hydrate province (Spence et al., 2001; Tréhu et al., 2003, 2004), as well as an area where sediments on the North American plate are folded and faulted and affected by fluids generated in the subduction complex beneath the Cascadia forearc (e.g., Saffer and Tobin, 2011). Several Ocean Drilling Program expeditions have focused on hydrate systems offshore Vancouver and Oregon (e.g., Riedel et al., 2009; Tréhu et al., 2004) and on the connection between the shallow and deep hydrogeologic systems. Cabled observatories now continuously monitor physical, chemical, and venting processes on south Hydrate Ridge (OOI; e.g., Philip et al., 2016a) and offshore Vancouver Island (NEPTUNE; e.g. Römer et al., 2016). Outside of these well-studied gas hydrate areas, a subset of the recently-discovered Cascadia seeps, including some that we visited with R/V Falkor in 2019 (e.g., https://schmidtocean.org/cruise/methane-seeps-at-edge-of-hydrate-stability/), also likely emit methane associated with shallow subseafloor gas hydrate systems. Other seeps are delivering not only methane, but also deep-derived gases (Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020) to the seafloor. Many Cascadia Margin seeps have also been recognized at water depths too shallow (e.g., 175 m) to be connected to gas hydrate dynamics. These seeps are postulated to be emitting gas and fluids that originated deep in accretionary wedge before migrating up normal faults generated during forearc extension associated with large earthquakes (Johnson et al., 2019). Only a small fraction of the recently discovered U.S. Cascadia Margin water column gas plumes has so far been verified by ROVs (Hercules from E/V Nautilus in 2016 and 2018; SuBastian from R/V Falkor in 2018 and 2019) to correspond to seafloor seeps. Careful scientific mapping, investigation, and sampling at the seeps have also been limited (e.g., Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020; Merle and Embley, 2016; Seabrook et al., 2018; Greinert et al. 2019). This white paper focuses on expanding exploration of already-identified U.S. Cascadia Margin cold seeps through a multipronged and multidisciplinary discovery program that could be accomplished with a variety of NOAA assets. The goals of the proposed exploration activities are to develop high-resolution maps of seep fields from deep ocean vehicles; to verify (and sample) seafloor gas emissions at the locations of water column plumes for compositional and isotopic studies; to map, sample, and conduct analyses on chemosynthetic communities and deep-sea coral habitats near seep sites to document species distributions and habitats as a function of depth and latitude along the margin; to collect seep geologic samples that can constrain the timing of methane emissions through geochronology; and to record environmental data (e.g., CTD) near the seafloor and in the water column above the seeps. Seafloor mapping using shipboard systems (multibeam/backscatter) would be needed to characterize seafloor features near seep sites. Water column imaging (EK60/80 and/or multibeam WCD data) conducted before and after seafloor explorations would capture active methane plumes and constrain temporal variations in seep emissions (e.g., Kannberg et al., 2013; Philip et al., 2016a, 2016b), which are known to vary on time scales as rapid as tidal cycles on this margin (e.g., Römer et al., 2016). What are the characterization and data needs in this area? Check all that apply: __x_ Biology, Geology, Physical Oceanography, Chemistry ___ Marine Archaeology ___ Other Provide a list or brief description of the data needed within this area, from your perspective: 1. Water column backscatter to image active gas plumes 2. High-resolution multibeam bathymetry, seafloor backscatter, and shallow sub-bottom imaging 3. Visual characterization and ground truthing of potential seeps, including high-resolution mapping and photography from near-seafloor vehicles; collection of seep-associated species, corals, sediments, authigenic carbonates, gases, and seawater Describe relevance to national security, conservation, and/or the economy: The Cascadia margin seeps provide significant ecosystem services, including habitat for commercially important fishes and support for diversity along the continental margin. Methane seeps are also biological hotspots for krill, plankton, and crustaceans, which in turn sustain higher trophic levels (e.g., whales). Methane-derived authigenic carbonates serve as a hard substrate for deep-sea corals and sponges on millennial time scales. The studies proposed here will elucidate the relationship among seep environments, deep-sea corals, sponges, fisheries, and other organisms and provide new insight into subduction zone and hydrate-associated fluids in this important seismogenic zone. The studies address fishery management concerns and inform future conservation of sensitive species (e.g., deep-sea corals) and benthic habitats. From your perspective, what makes this area unique? The Cascadia Margin seeps are a critical component of the leaky margin that stretches from Baja California to the Aleutian Arc along the Pacific coastline of North America. Cold seeps have been intensely studied on the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Atlantic passive margins with a focus on chemosynthetic communities, deep-sea corals, and leakage of microbially-generated and/or thermogenic hydrocarbons; however, the recently-discovered Cascadia Margin seeps, as well as active margin seep systems in general, remain more poorly characterized. Such seeps not only contribute to the ocean carbon cycle (e.g., Pohlman et al., 2011), thereby fueling the base of the food chain in these settings, but also emit subduction zone fluids that provide clues about processes within the seismogenic zone and the accretionary complex. The Cascadia seeps area allows both biological (e.g., benthic habitats, coral distributions) and physical processes (e.g., generation of subduction zone fluids) to be studied along both depth (perpendicular to the deformation front) and latitudinal gradients.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Identifying policy-relevant indicators for assessing landscape vegetation patterns to inform planning and management on multiple use public lands

Understanding the structure and composition of landscapes can empower agencies to effectively manage public lands for multiple uses while sustaining land health. Many landscape metrics exist, but they are not often used in public land decision-making. Our objectives were to (1) develop and (2) apply a process for identifying a core set of indicators that public land managers can use to understand landscape-level resource patterns on and around public lands. We first developed a process for identifying indicators that are grounded in policy, feasible to quantify using existing data and resources, and useful for managers. We surveyed landscape monitoring efforts by other agencies, gathered science and agency input on monitoring goals, and quantified the prevalence of potential indicators in agency land health standards to identify five landscape indicators: amount, distribution, patch size, structural connectivity, and diversity of vegetation types. We then conducted pilot applications in four bureau of land management (BLM) field offices in Arizona, California, and Colorado to refine procedures for quantifying the indicators and assess the utility of the indicators for managers. Results highlighted the dominance of upland and the limited extent of riparian/wetland vegetation communities, moderate connectivity of priority vegetation patches, and lower diversity of native vegetation types on BLM compared to non-BLM lands. Agency staff can use the indicators to inform the development of quantitative resource management objectives in land use plans, evaluate progress in meeting those objectives, quantify potential impacts of proposed actions, and as a foundation for an all-lands approach to landscape-level management across public lands.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2023

Simulating groundwater flow in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain with a focus on the Mississippi Delta

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain has become one of the most important agricultural regions in the United States but relies heavily on groundwater for irrigation. On average, more than 12 billion gallons are withdrawn daily from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Declining groundwater levels, especially in the Delta region of northwest Mississippi and the Cache and Grand Prairie regions of eastern Arkansas, have led to concerns about future sustainability. The U.S. Geological Survey Mississippi Alluvial Plain Project is focused on quantifying the groundwater system in the alluvial plain and the response of groundwater resources to future development. A key objective of the project is to provide updated groundwater flow models supported by extensive data collection and analyses. MODFLOW 6, PEST++, and several open-source python packages were used to develop a simplified, faster running version of the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study model that can provide boundary conditions for local inset models, including the Mississippi Delta model described in this report. An automated workflow was used for model construction, history matching, and development of baseline future climate scenarios. The models incorporate information from a Soil-Water-Balance code simulation of the terrestrial water balance, metering-based estimates of water use from thousands of wells, measured and estimated streamflow and stages, and the largest airborne electromagnetic survey flown to date in the United States. Baseline scenarios for the Mississippi Delta under potential future climates were constructed using recharge, surface runoff and irrigation pumping forcings from a future version of the Soil-Water-Balance model, driven by downscaled temperature and precipitation output from 10 general circulation model simulations, including high and moderate carbon emissions pathways. Results indicate a complex water balance that varies in time and space in terms of the terrestrial recharge, stream leakage, and regional groundwater flow components, which are affected by seasonal forcings, human activity, and alluvial geomorphology. The general circulation model outputs indicate a continued rise in average temperatures but no clear precipitation trend. Increased crop water demand is anticipated from the higher temperatures, resulting in increased irrigation withdrawals to sustain current levels of irrigated agriculture. Simulated drawdowns in groundwater levels at the mid-21st century vary greatly. Under moderate or wet climate scenarios, and in parts of the aquifer that are well connected to surface water, little to no additional drawdown is anticipated. Under dry or warm scenarios, drawdowns of as much as 10 meters or more are possible in parts of the aquifer that are relatively disconnected from surface water. Under dry or warm scenarios, the portion of the Delta with greater than 60 feet of saturated thickness could be reduced from near 100 percent currently (2018) to 80–90 percent by mid-century. Future simulations with the model could include alternative management scenarios to identify options for improving groundwater sustainability. The automated model construction workflows are designed to facilitate regular updating, making this a “living” framework that the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality and other stakeholders can use for adaptive management going forward.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2022

Adaptive management framework and decision support tool for invasive annual bromes in seven Northern Great Plains National Park Service units

National Park Service (NPS) units in the northern Great Plains (NGP) were established to preserve and interpret the history of the United States, protect and showcase unusual geology and paleontology, and provide a home for vanishing large wildlife. A unifying feature among these national parks, monuments, and historic sites is northern mixed-grass prairie, which not only provides background scenery and habitat but is the foundation of many park missions. As recognition of the prairie’s importance to park fundamental resources and values has grown, so too has the realization that invasive plants threaten these values by reducing native species diversity, altering food webs, and marring the visitor experience. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and Japanese brome ( Bromus japonicus )—collectively referred to as “annual bromes”—are of particular concern because of their documented increase through time, and their association with lower native plant diversity, in NGP parks. A variety of grazing, herbicide-application, and prescribed-fire experiments have shown promising short-term results for controlling annual bromes in research-scale plots in the NGP, but it is unclear whether these management actions will be as effective at the larger spatial and longer temporal scales relevant to park management. When uncertainties about the effectiveness of different management actions cannot be answered with traditional research approaches in time to prevent resource degradation, yet recurrent management decisions must be made, an adaptive management approach may be appropriate. Thus, in 2017, we began to develop the ABAM—Annual Brome Adaptive Management—framework. The aim of this framework is to reduce uncertainties about methods for controlling annual bromes in seven NGP parks through a formal process of learning from the application of on-going management. A uniform framework across seven parks provides greater opportunities for reducing these uncertainties compared to a single park acting alone or to multiple parks using different adaptive management frameworks. This technical report details the development and expected implementation of the ABAM framework. After briefly introducing the issue (Section 1) and describing the context in which the framework was developed (Section 2), the report describes how a structured decision-making process was used to frame the problem, determine concrete objectives, and decide the alternative actions for achieving those objectives that the framework would be designed around (Section 3). Then the report describes the process used to develop the ABAM decision support system (Section 4). At the core of this system is the ABAM decision support tool, a Bayesian decision network built on nearly two decades of vegetation monitoring data from NGP parks, as well as current literature and ABAMspecific experiments. This tool, referred to as the ABAM model by its intended users, is built to work with the existing vegetation monitoring, prescribed fire, and invasive plant management programs that support the seven ABAM parks. In Section 5, the report describes how output from the ABAM model is produced and used in annual vegetation management decision making. It describes the ABAM R package (Baldwin et al. 2021) and an example R script that leads a user through an annual workflow using the model and the package. This workflow updates the model with information from new monitoring events following management actions of prescribed fire, herbicide application, or a combination thereof. With the updated model, data describing the current condition of vegetation in park management units, and current data for environmental factors included in the model (soil texture, slope, weather, and grazing), the user then runs the model to predict future vegetation conditions—and managers’ happiness with the outcome—in response to each of 10 management actions for each management unit in each park. These predictions inform managers’ decisions regarding locations and types of management actions to apply in the upcoming year. The ABAM framework is in its infancy, and the report concludes (Section 6) with a discussion of its longer-term viability. Successful adaptive management requires commitment for the long term, likely decades. Currently, the predictions of the decision support tool are not expected to be highly accurate, but they ideally will improve over time as more management actions are applied and their outcomes are captured by monitoring. We designed the ABAM decision support tool to work with the existing management and monitoring resources in ABAM parks to maximize the sustainability of the model’s use, but the ABAM framework requires more than the model. Because this application of an adaptive management framework supported by a quantitative decision support tool to guide vegetation management is unique within the NPS (to our knowledge), institutional knowledge and mechanisms for long-term implementation of the ABAM framework do not exist within the agency. Additionally, the ABAM model and the data that inform it could be improved in a variety of ways. Thus, this report concludes with a discussion of ways to both sustain and improve upon the work completed so far.

Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Forested floristic quality index: An assessment tool for forested wetland habitats using the quality and quantity of woody vegetation at Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) vegetation monitoring stations

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana and the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act, developed the Forested Floristic Quality Index (FFQI) for the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS). The FFQI will help evaluate forested wetland sites on a continuum from severely degraded to healthy and will assist in defining areas where forested wetland restoration can be successful by projecting the trajectories of change. At each CRMS forested wetland site there are stations for quantifying the overstory, understory, and herbaceous vegetation layers. Rapidly responding overstory canopy cover and herbaceous layer composition are measured annually, while gradually changing overstory basal area and species composition are collected on a 3-year cycle. A CRMS analytical team has tailored these data into an index much like the Floristic Quality Index (FQI) currently used for herbaceous marsh and for the herbaceous layer of the swamp vegetation. The core of the FFQI uses basal area by species to assess the quality and quantity of the overstory at each of three stations within each CRMS forested wetland site. Trees that are considered by experts to be higher quality swamp species like Taxodium distichum (bald cypress) and Nyssa aquatica (water tupelo) are scored higher than tree species like Triadica sebifera (Chinese tallow) and Salix nigra (black willow) that are indicators of recent disturbance. This base FFQI is further enhanced by the percent canopy cover in the overstory and the presence of indicator species at the forest floor. This systemic approach attempts to differentiate between locations with similar basal areas that are on different ecosystem trajectories. Because of these varying states of habitat degradation, paired use of the FQI and the FFQI is useful to interpret the vegetative data in transitional locations. There is often an inverse relation between the health of the overstory and health of the herbaceous community beneath it because of resource competition (for example, light) and differing environmental preferences between the two communities. The herbaceous layer vegetation responds rapidly to basic environmental factors such as flooding, salinity, and nutrients and can offer insight into the sustainability of swamps on a temporal scale shorter than tha of the slowly growing woody vegetation. The FFQI will be available via the CRMS spatial viewer ( http://lacoast.gov/crms2/home.aspx ), and a new score will be calculated annually for each CRMS forested wetland site as data are collected to establish trends, to compare among sites, and to evaluate specific restoration projects when applicable. The FFQI will identify forested wetland areas in need of restoration and conservation and will help define targets and trajectories for restoration planning.

Louisiana↗

USGS2021

A U.S.-China EcoPartnership study of disturbed wetland vegetation in West Dongting Lake, China

West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re-engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future.

West Dongting Lake↗

USGS2013

Sediment distribution and hydrologic conditions of the Potomac aquifer in Virginia and parts of Maryland and North Carolina

Sediments of the heavily used Potomac aquifer broadly contrast across major structural features of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Physiographic Province in eastern Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina. Thicknesses and relative dominance of the highly interbedded fluvial sediments vary regionally. Vertical intervals in boreholes of coarse-grained sediment commonly targeted for completion of water-supply wells are thickest and most widespread across the central and southern parts of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Designated as the Norfolk arch depositional subarea, the entire sediment thickness here functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer. By contrast, coarse-grained sediment intervals are thinner and less widespread across the northern part of the Virginia Coastal Plain and into southern Maryland, designated as the Salisbury embayment depositional subarea. Fine-grained intervals that are generally avoided for completion of water-supply wells are increasingly thick and widespread northward. Fine-grained intervals collectively as thick as several hundred feet comprise two continuous confining units that hydraulically separate three vertically spaced subaquifers. The subaquifers are continuous northward but merge southward into the single undivided Potomac aquifer. Lastly, far southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina are designated as the Albemarle embayment depositional subarea, where both coarse- and fine-grained intervals are of only moderate thickness. The entire sediment thickness functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer. A substantial hydrologic separation from overlying aquifers is imposed by the upper Cenomanian confining unit. Potomac aquifer sediments were deposited by a fluvial depositional complex spanning the Virginia Coastal Plain approximately 100 to 145 million years ago. Westward, persistently uplifted granite and gneiss source rocks sustained a supply of coarse-grained sand and gravel. Immature, high-gradient braided streams deposited longitudinal bars and channel fills across the Norfolk arch subarea. By contrast, across the Salisbury and Albemarle embayment subareas, mature, medium- to low-gradient meandering streams deposited medium- to coarse-grained channel fills and point bars segregated from fine-grained overbank deposits. The Virginia depositional complex merged northward across the Salisbury embayment subarea with another complex in Maryland. Here, additional sediments were received from schist source rocks that underwent three cycles of initial uplift and rapid erosion followed by crustal stability and erosional leveling. Because of the predominance of coarse-grained sediments, transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, and regional velocities of lateral flow through the Potomac aquifer are greatest across the Norfolk arch depositional subarea, but decrease progressively northward with increasingly fine-grained sediments. Confining units hydraulically separate the Potomac aquifer from overlying aquifers, as indicated by large vertical hydraulic gradients. By contrast, most of the Potomac aquifer internally functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer, as indicated by uniformly small vertical gradients. Most fine-grained sediments within the aquifer do not hydraulically separate overlying and underlying coarse-grained sediments. Across the Salisbury embayment depositional subarea, however, hydraulic separation among the vertically spaced subaquifers is imposed by the intervening confining units. The Potomac aquifer is the largest and most heavily used source of groundwater in the Virginia Coastal Plain. Water-level declines as great as 200 feet create the potential for saltwater intrusion. Conventional stratigraphic correlation has been generally ineffective at accurately characterizing complexly distributed fluvial sediments that compose the Potomac aquifer. Consequently, the aquifer’s internal hydraulic connectivity and overall hydrologic function have not been well understood. Water-supply planning and development efforts have been hampered, and interpretations of regulatory criteria for allowable water-level declines have been ambiguous. An investigation undertaken during 2010–11 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, provides a comprehensive regional description of the spatial distribution of Potomac aquifer sediments and their relation to hydrologic conditions. Altitudes and thicknesses of 2,725 vertical sediment intervals represent the spatial distribution of Potomac aquifer sediments in the Virginia Coastal Plain and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina. Sediment intervals are designated as either dominantly coarse or fine grained and were determined by interpretation of geophysical logs and ancillary information from 456 boreholes. Sediment-interval and borehole summary statistical data indicate regional trends in sediment lithology and stratigraphic continuity, upon which three structurally based and hydrologically distinct sediment depositional subareas are designated. Broad patterns of sediment deposition over time are inferred from published sediment pollen-age data. Discrepancies in previously drawn hydrostratigraphic relations between southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina are partly resolved based on borehole geophysical logs and a recently documented geologic map and corehole. A conceptual model theorizes the depositional history of the sediments and geologically accounts for their distribution. Documented pumping tests of the Potomac aquifer at 197 locations produced 336 values of transmissivity and 127 values of storativity. Based on effective aquifer thicknesses, 296 values of sediment hydraulic conductivity and 113 values of sediment specific storage are calculated. Vertical hydraulic gradients are calculated from 9,479 pairs of water levels measured between November 17, 1953, and October 4, 2011, in 129 closely spaced pairs of wells. Borehole sediment-interval and related data provide a means to achieve high yielding production wells in the Potomac aquifer by site-specific targeting of drilling operations toward water-bearing coarse-grained sand and gravel. Advance knowledge of the potential of different parts of the aquifer also aids in planning optimal groundwater-development areas. Depositional subareas further provide a possible context for resource management. Current (2013) regulatory limits on water-level declines are relative to top surfaces of subdivided upper, middle, and lower Potomac aquifers across the entire Virginia Coastal Plain, but have the potential to exceed the same limit relative to a single undivided Potomac aquifer. By contrast, designation of the sediments as a single aquifer in the Norfolk arch and Albemarle embayment subareas—and as a series of vertically spaced subaquifers and intervening confining units in the Salisbury embayment subarea—best reflects understanding of the Potomac aquifer and can avoid the potential for excessive water-level declines. Simulation modeling to evaluate effects of groundwater withdrawals could be designed similarly, including vertical discretization and (or) zonation of the Potomac aquifer based on depositional subareas and a geostatistical distribution of aquifer properties derived from borehole sediment-interval data. Further resource-management information needs extend beyond the developed part of the Potomac aquifer, particularly across the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula where only the shallowest part of the aquifer is known, and include structural aspects such as faults, basement bedrock, and the Chesapeake Bay impact crater.

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2002

Identifying and assessing ecotourism visitor impacts at selected protected areas in Costa Rica and Belize

Protected area visitation is an important component of ecotourism, and as such, must be sustainable. However, protected area visitation may degrade natural resources, particularly in areas of concentrated visitor activities like trails and recreation sites. This is an important concern in ecotourism destinations such as Belize and Costa Rica, because they actively promote ecotourism and emphasize the pristine qualities of their natural resources. Research on visitor impacts to protected areas has many potential applications in protected area management, though it has not been widely applied in Central and South America. This study targeted this deficiency through manager interviews and evaluations of alternative impact assessment procedures at eight protected areas in Belize and Costa Rica. Impact assessment procedures included qualitative condition class systems, ratings systems, and measurement-based systems applied to trails and recreation sites. The resulting data characterize manager perceptions of impact problems, document trail and recreation site impacts, and provide examples of inexpensive, efficient and effective rapid impact assessment procedures. Interview subjects reported a variety of impacts affecting trails, recreation sites, wildlife, water, attraction features and other resources. Standardized assessment procedures were developed and applied to record trail and recreation site impacts. Impacts affecting the study areas included trail proliferation, erosion and widening, muddiness on trails, vegetation cover loss, soil and root exposure, and tree damage on recreation sites. The findings also illustrate the types of assessment data yielded by several alternative methods and demonstrate their utility to protected area managers. The need for additional rapid assessment procedures for wildlife, water, attraction feature and other resource impacts was also identified.

Environmental Conservation↗

USGS2006

Fish assemblage responses to water withdrawals and water supply reservoirs in Piedmont streams

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from < 0.05 to > 13 times the stream’s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site’s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.

Georgiq↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark National Historical Park: 2008-2012 synthesis report

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources associated with the winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition. Elk were critically important to the Lewis and Clark expedition in providing food and hides that sustained the expedition during the winter of 1805-06 and supplied them for their return east during 1806. Today, elk remain a key component of interpreting the Lewis and Clark story to over 200,000 park visitors each year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. In 2008, the US Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with Lewis and Clark NHP and the NPS North Coast and Cascades Network to develop a protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of elk use within and adjacent to Lewis and Clark NHP (Griffin et al. 2011). Specific objectives of the monitoring program were to measure trends in (1) relative use of the Fort Clatsop unit by elk during winter; (2) the proportion of areas where elk sign is present in the Fort Clatsop unit in winter; and (3) the frequency of elk sightings from roads in and around the Fort Clatsop unit. This report synthesizes the results of the first four years of monitoring elk distribution and use in Lewis and Clark NHP from 2008-2012. We also present data from FY2012 (Appendix 1), in lieu of an annual report for that year. We used fecal pellet group surveys as the cornerstone for monitoring trends in both relative use of the Fort Clatsop Unit by elk and the proportion of areas where elk sign was present at the end of winter. We estimated pellet group density based on data collected from a network of fecal pellet plots distributed systematically throughout the unit. We developed a double observer sampling scheme that enabled us to estimate detection biases and improve the accuracy of pellet group density estimates. We computed the estimated detection probability for any pellet group observed; this probability was a function of the pellet group size and stage of decay, as well as lighting and vegetation conditions, and the number of observers (one or two) searching for pellets in that subplot. We then used these estimated detection probabilities to adjust the raw counts of the detected pellet groups to account for groups that likely went undetected under similar pellet and environmental conditions (each observed pellet group was weighted by the inverse of its estimated detection probability). We also used results from the late winter fecal pellet surveys to quantify the proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO), which was based on the presence of fecal pellet groups and estimation of detection biases (i.e., accounting for pellet groups that likely went undetected by both observers). In this synthesis, we report temporal trends in both pellet group density and PAO from 2008-2012, based on weighted linear regression analyses as well as spatial variation of pellet group densities over time. We completed late winter fecal pellet surveys at 61-66 plots annually, depending on yearly variation in access. We cleared fecal pellets at survey points in late October / early November each year and returned in late February / early March to count pellet groups left by elk over the winter. The estimated probability that a pellet group was detected by any one observer during late winter was affected most by the pellet group size and was less affected by decay class and lighting conditions. Per-observer detection probabilities ranged from as low as ~10-15% for single pellets to ~85-90% for pellet groups with 50 pellets. Average pellet group density in the Fort Clatsop unit ranged annually from 0.58 (+/- 1.43 standard error [SE]) to 0.93 (+/- 2.25 SE) pellet groups per 3-m radius subplot. Pellet group density declined over time, at approximately 8.8% per year (+/- 2.5% SE), but that slope was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.16). Following correction for detection biases, the proportion of surveyed points used by elk (i.e., PAO) ranged from 0.44 (+/- 0.07 SE) to 0.53 (+/- 0.07 SE) during the 4 winters. The estimated proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO) declined at a rate of 2.6% per year (+/- 1.2% per year SE), but that trend also was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.17). Statistical significance of a measure’s trend depends on both the magnitude (i.e., slope) of the observed trend and the number of years the trend continues in the same increasing or decreasing direction. Through simulation modeling we determined how many additional years of surveys would be required to reveal a statistically significant trend, based on the same trends in pellet group density and PAO, and associated variation, observed from 2009-2012. Assuming the same trends persist in the future, simulations indicated that there is a 70% probability that a statistically significant trend would be detected after two more years of conducting pellet group surveys. Relative use by elk during winter, as indexed by elk pellet group density, was generally greatest in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit in or near the large freshwater marsh at the mouth of Colewort Creek and adjacent upland areas. Pellet group density was also higher than average in the north-central forested area, not far from a privately-owned pasture north of the park boundary. This spatial pattern in pellet group densities across the Fort Clatsop unit was consistent across all four years, although specific pellet group densities varied from year to year. Pellet group density declined significantly over time at two points in the southeast of the Fort Clatsop unit, even though pellet group density at those points remained higher than the unit average. Pellet group density increased significantly over time at one point in the north-central region, and at one point in the south-central region of the unit, indicating a slight shift in the distribution of elk use within the Fort Clatsop Unit over the four years. As an index of visitors’ opportunities to see elk in and around the Fort Clatsop Unit, we conducted replicated roadside elk surveys 3-5 times monthly during February, April, June, August, October and December 2008-2012. During each morning of survey, we searched for elk along four routes that totaled 32 km. We examined bimonthly trends in the numbers of elk groups seen, the total number of elk seen, and the observed composition ratios for those six months of the year. The average number of elk groups seen per survey ranged from 0.75 (+/- 0.32 SE) during February to a peak of 1.95 (+/- 0.36 SE) during June. Despite this seasonal variation in numbers of elk groups seen, the average total number of elk seen per morning was less variable. The average ratios of antlered elk to antlerless adult elk (i.e., bulls:cows) and calves to antlerless adult elk (i.e. calves:cows) varied seasonally, with the highest of both average ratios observed in August. We detected no significant trends in the average number of elk groups and total numbers of elk seen per survey from 2008-2012. Similarly, ratios of calves and antlered elk per antlerless elk did not differ over time. Elk groups were frequently seen from January to August in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit, in the vicinity of Colewort Creek. Outside of NPS lands, we observed elk most frequently in open areas near the Astoria regional airport, in the pastures and forests immediately north of the Fort Clatsop unit and, prior to the construction of a residential development, in a pasture northwest of the Fort Clatsop unit. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP is still in its initial years and additional monitoring will be required to verify trends that appear to be emerging. For example, the initial monitoring suggested incipient declining trends in both pellet group density and proportion of plots with pellets present, as well as, potentially, a small shift in elk distribution away from a new trail that was recently constructed in the southeast portion of the Fort Clatsop unit. Continued monitoring will aid in determining whether this local change in distribution persists (or, alternatively, resulted from short-term random variation), and whether there will be any positive or negative effect in the northern portion of the unit where a new trail has been constructed. High variability in road counts prevented our ability to find any clear trend in numbers or composition of elk observed in and near Fort Clatsop, but changes in the patterns of observations of elk from roadways suggest that residential development outside the park has reduced the available habitat for elk in some of the areas surveyed, and may have affected spatial use patterns of elk adjacent to some areas of the park. In addition to monitoring future effects of land use changes outside the park, continued monitoring may also prove useful for assessing elk responses to natural succession in forests disturbed by windthrow in December 2007 and to NPS vegetation management activities such as variable density thinning in the forest, trail development, and restoration at Otter Point tidal area and Colewort Creek Slough.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS1999

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri↗

USGS2022

An assessment of future tidal marsh resilience in the San Francisco Estuary through modeling and quantifiable metrics of sustainability

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement ( R 2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI ( R 2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.

California↗

USGS2020

Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.

Global Environmental Change↗

USGS2013

Science-based management of public lands in southern Nevada

Landmark legislation provides guiding principles for land management planning in southern Nevada and the rest of the United States. Such legislation includes, but is not limited to, the Forest Service Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S>C. 473-478, 479-482 and 551), National Park Service Organic Act of 1916 (U.S.C. Title 16, Secs. 1-4). Wilderness Act 1964 (P.L.88-577), National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (P.L. 91-190), Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 91-205), National Forest Management Act of of 1976 (P.L. 94-588), and Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579). The acts establishing congressionally designated areas within southern Nevada, such as Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Spring Mountains National Restoration Area, and Desert National Wildlife Refuge, also contain guidelines for the management of these lands. These documents variously require preservation of natural and cultural resource and wilderness character, protection of species, and prevention of undesirable environmental effects from land management actions. These requirements must be met while allowing for multiple "uses" of certain public lands (e.g. recreation, ranching, resources extraction, renewable energy development, etc.) to the degree that they do no threaten preservation, protection, and prevention goals,. many considerations some into play in the development and implementation for land management plans and actions. The planning process requires a balancing act that sometimes pit one need or priority against another. When priorities can trump other needs can prioritized and receive disproportionate consideration. Overall, the management of public lands is a very complicated and sometime contentious process. Science provides an objective way to help weigh quantifiable information and draw conclusions about the effects of past and potential future land management policies, decisions, and actions. When effectively integrated into adaptive management, science-based information can reduce uncertainties, increase knowledge, and improve decision making. However, the specific science information needed for effective management is often lacking or difficult to access or interpret. Science is typically reported in scientific journals as discrete units describing individual studies with other scientists as the primary audience. Translations of these studies an synthesis or multiple studies into formats that can be readily used in land management planning efforts are often lacking. Identifying and articulating the highest priority science and research needs is one of the primary purposes of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http://www.SNAP.gov) Science and Research Team (chapter 1; Turner and others 2009). The SNAP Science and Research Strategy (Strategy) calls for a synthesis report to be written every 5 years summarizing the state of knowledge, information gaps and management implications of scientific information as it relates to the SNAP Strategy goals (Turner and others 2009). This General Technical Report serves as the first SNAP Science and Research Synthesis Report (Synthesis Report) commissioned by the Science and Research Team. The Synthesis Report is mostly based on information form the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and is itself peer reviewed and constitutes a new contribution to the scientific literature. This final chapter addresses Sub-goal 2.3, which is to manage current and future authorized southern Nevada land uses in a manner that balances public need and ecosystem sustainability, and Sub-goal 2.5, which is to promote an effective conservation education and interpretation program to improve the quality of resources and enhance public use and enjoyment of southern Nevada public lands. It summarizes information form the previous chapters on what scientific information is known currently and what remains largely unknown, and it discusses how science can be used to make future management decisions that balances public needs and ecosystem sustainability.

Nevada↗

USGS2012

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

Montana↗