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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

Simulation of groundwater flow to assess future withdrawals associated with Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) at Fort George G. Meade, Maryland

Increased groundwater withdrawals from confined aquifers in the Maryland Coastal Plain to supply anticipated growth at Fort George G. Meade (Fort Meade) and surrounding areas resulting from the Department of Defense Base Realignment and Closure Program may have adverse effects in the outcrop or near-outcrop areas. Specifically, increased pumping from the Potomac Group aquifers (principally the Patuxent aquifer) could potentially reduce base flow in small streams below rates necessary for healthy biological functioning. Additionally, water levels may be lowered near, or possibly below, the top of the aquifer within the confined-unconfined transition zone near the outcrop area. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was created to incorporate and analyze data on water withdrawals, streamflow, and hydraulic head in the region. The model is based on an earlier model developed to assess the effects of future withdrawals from well fields in Anne Arundel County, Maryland and surrounding areas, and includes some of the same features, including model extent, boundary conditions, and vertical discretization (layering). The resolution (horizontal grid discretization) of the earlier model limited its ability to simulate the effects of withdrawals on the outcrop and near-outcrop areas. The model developed for this study included a block-shaped higher-resolution local grid, referred to as the child model, centered on Fort Meade, which was coupled to the coarser-grid parent model using the shared node Local Grid Refinement capability of MODFLOW-LGR. A more detailed stream network was incorporated into the child model. In addition, for part of the transient simulation period, stress periods were reduced in length from 1 year to 3 months, to allow for simulation of the effects of seasonally varying withdrawals and recharge on the groundwater-flow system and simulated streamflow. This required revision of the database on withdrawals and estimation of seasonal variations in recharge represented in the earlier model. The calibrated model provides a tool for future forecasts of changes in the system under different management scenarios, and for simulating potential effects of withdrawals at Fort Meade and the surrounding area on water levels in the near-outcrop area and base flow in the outcrop area. Model error was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water levels from 62 wells (55 in the parent model and 7 in the child model). The root-mean-square error values for the parent and child model were 8.72 and 11.91 feet, respectively. Root-mean-square error values for the 55 parent model observation wells range from 0.95 to 30.31 feet; the range for the 7 child model observation wells is 5.00 to 24.17 feet. Many of the wells with higher root-mean-square error values occur at the perimeter of the child model and near large pumping centers, as well as updip in the confined aquifers. Root-mean-square error values decrease downdip and away from the large pumping centers. Both the parent and child models are sensitive to increasing withdrawal rates. The parent model is more sensitive than the child model to decreasing transmissivity of layers 3, 4, 5, and 6. The parent model is relatively insensitive to riverbed vertical conductance, however, the child model does exhibit some sensitivity to decreasing riverbed conductance. The overall water budget for the model included sources and sinks of water including recharge, surface-water bodies and rivers and streams, general-head boundaries, and withdrawals from permitted wells. Withdrawal from wells in 2005 was estimated to be equivalent to 8.5 percent of the total recharge rate.

Scientific Investigations Report

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California

Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States

Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. Our results show that there is much spatial variation in relative sea-level rise rates, which impacts the potential timing and extent of wetlands crossing thresholds. High rates of relative sea-level rise along wetland-rich parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts highlight areas where wetlands are already drowning or could begin to drown within decades, including large wetland landscapes within the Mississippi River delta, Greater Everglades, Chesapeake Bay, Texas, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Collectively, our results underscore the need to prepare for transformative coastal change.

Communications Earth & Environment

Variability in marsh migration potential determined by topographic rather than anthropogenic constraints in the Chesapeake Bay region

Sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion are driving inland shifts in coastal ecosystems. Here, we make high-resolution (1 m) predictions of land conversion under future SLR scenarios in 81 watersheds surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, a hotspot for accelerated SLR and saltwater intrusion. We find that 1050–3748 km 2 of marsh could be created by 2100, largely at the expense of forested wetlands. Predicted marsh migration exceeds total current tidal marsh area and is ~ 4× greater than historical observations. Anthropogenic land use in marsh migration areas is concentrated within a few watersheds and minimally impacts calculated metrics of marsh resilience. Despite regional marsh area maintenance, local ecosystem service replacement within vulnerable watersheds remains uncertain. However, our work suggests that topography rather than land use drives spatial variability in wetland vulnerability regionally, and that rural land conversion is needed to compensate for extensive areal losses on heavily developed coasts globally.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia

How plants influence resilience of salt marsh and mangrove wetlands to sea-level rise

This review evaluates the importance of plants and associated biological processes in determining the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Coastal wetlands occur across a broad sedimentary continuum from minerogenic to biogenic, providing an opportunity to examine the relative importance of biological processes in wetland resilience to sea-level rise. We explore how plants influence sediment accretion, elevation capital (vertical position in the tidal frame), and compaction or erosion of deposited material. We focus on salt marsh and mangrove wetlands, which occupy a similar physiographic niche and display similar physical and biological controls on resilience to sea-level rise. In both habitats, plants stabilize emergent mudflats and help sustain the wetland position in the tidal frame relative to ocean height through both surface and subsurface process controls on soil elevation. Plants influence soil elevations by modifying (1) mineral sediment deposition and retention, (2) organic matter contributions to soil volume, and (3) resistance to compaction and erosion. Recognition of the importance of plants in coastal wetland resilience to sea-level rise is key to accurate predictions about the future fate of salt marshes and mangrove forests and for development of effective management and restoration plans.

Estuaries and Coasts

Submerged aquatic vegetation mapping in coastal Louisiana through development of a spatial likelihood occurrence (SLOO) model

Determining the spatial distribution of coastal foundation species is essential to accurately determine restoration goals, predict the ecological effects of climate change, and develop habitat management strategies. Mapping the distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) species assemblages, which provide important habitat resource and ecological services in Louisiana, has been difficult due to the dynamic nature of SAV occurrence and the limited water clarity across much of the coast. Species distribution models (SDMs) link ecological conditions species occurrence across landscapes, and can predict the distribution of species across un-sampled or hard to sample areas and support the development of habitat maps. To predict SAV distribution in coastal Louisiana, a SDM was developed and projected across the landscape to create a spatial likelihood of occurrence (SLOO) model describing the probability of SAV presence in aquatic habitats. SAV presence and absence data were examined from over 500 field observations in relation to physical and hydrologic variables, including exposure, turbidity, water level, and salinity. A binary logistic regression model (p < 0.0001) identified three significant predictors of SAV presence: mean winter salinity, exposure, and turbidity. As each of these variables increased, the probability of SAV presence in the summer growing season decreased. The spatial application of this SDM helps to predict the likelihood of occurrence across the coastal landscape, creating a valuable tool to describe un-sampled SAV habitat and estimate future changes in habitat availability.

Louisiana

Effects of salinity and light on growth and interspecific interactions between Myriophyllum spicatum L. and Ruppia maritima L.

Submerged macrophyte habitats provide significant benefits to estuarine systems. In southeast Louisiana, Myriophyllum spicatum L. (milfoil) and Ruppia maritima L. (widgeongrass) are dominant species existing across fresh to brackish areas. Though frequently co-occurring across the range of salinity and light conditions, their individual responses to changing environmental conditions from restoration, weather and climate may determine overall species distribution, and biomass abundance. We compared milfoil and widgeongrass growth (i.e., biomass increase) across a range of salinity and light, in monoculture (salinity: 0, 5, 10, 15, 20; light: high ˜ 50% ambient; low ˜ 20% ambient), and in mixture (salinity: 0, 10, 20; light: high, low). In monoculture, milfoil growth was reduced at high salinity (20) versus low salinity (0), while biomass allocation differed significantly with greater allocation to shoots under high light, compared to low light. Widgeongrass was minimally affected by salinity, with reduced stem densities at high salinity compared to low salinity. In mixture, both species under-yielded compared to monoculture with milfoil reduced with high salinity and light, and low salinity and light; widgeongrass under-yielded with low salinity and high light, and mid salinity (10) and low light. These differences in species’ responses suggest that salinity and light contribute to the distribution of milfoil and widgeongrass, with higher salinities and light favoring widgeongrass growth, and lower light possibly decreasing both species’ growth, and ultimately, distribution. With continued changes occurring and predicted from both coastal restoration and climate change, understanding drivers of habitat forming species remains critical to inform future landscapes.

Aquatic Botany

Biophysical drivers of coastal treeline elevation

Sea level rise is leading to the rapid migration of marshes into coastal forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Although complex biophysical interactions likely govern these ecosystem transitions, projections of sea level driven land conversion commonly rely on a simplified “threshold elevation” that represents the elevation of the marsh-upland boundary based on tidal datums alone. To determine the influence of biophysical drivers on threshold elevations, and their implication for land conversion, we examined almost 100,000 high-resolution marsh-forest boundary elevation points, determined independently from tidal datums, alongside hydrologic, ecologic, and geomorphic data in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S. located along the mid-Atlantic coast. We find five-fold variations in threshold elevation across the entire estuary, driven not only by tidal range, but also salinity and slope. However, more than half of the variability is unexplained by these variables, which we attribute largely to uncaptured local factors including groundwater discharge, microtopography, and anthropogenic impacts. In the Chesapeake Bay, observed threshold elevations deviate from predicted elevations used to determine sea level driven land conversion by as much as the amount of projected regional sea level rise by 2050. These results suggest that local drivers strongly mediate coastal ecosystem transitions, and that predictions based on elevation and tidal datums alone may misrepresent future land conversion.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia

Contaminated sediments database for Long Island Sound and the New York Bight

The Contaminated Sediments Database for Long Island Sound and the New York Bight provides a compilation of published and unpublished sediment texture and contaminant data. This report provides maps of several of the contaminants in the database as well as references and a section on using the data to assess the environmental status of these coastal areas. The database contains information collected between 1956-1997; providing an historical foundation for future contaminant studies in the region.

Open-File Report

High-resolution chirp and mini-sparker seismic-reflection data from the southern California continental shelf — Gaviota to Mugu Canyon

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected high-resolution shallow seismic-reflection data in September, 2007, and June-July, 2008, from the continental shelf offshore of southern California between Gaviota and Mugu Canyon, in support of the California's State Waters Mapping Program. Data were acquired using SIG 2mille mini-sparker and Edgetech chirp 512 instruments aboard the R/V Zephyr (Sept. 2007) and R/V Parke Snavely (June-July 2008). The survey area spanned approximately 120 km of coastline, and included shore-perpendicular transects spaced 1.0-1.5 km apart that extended offshore to at least the 3-mile limit of State waters, in water depths ranging from 10 m near shore to 300 m near the offshore extent of Mugu and Hueneme submarine canyons. Subbottom acoustic penetration spanned tens to several hundred meters, variable by location. This report includes maps of the surveyed transects, linked to Google Earth software, as well as digital data files showing images of each transect in SEG-Y, JPEG, and TIFF formats. The images of sediment deposits, tectonic structure, and natural-gas seeps collected during this study provide geologic information that is essential to coastal zone and resource management at Federal, State and local levels, as well as to future research on the sedimentary, tectonic, and climatic record of southern California.

California

High-resolution seismic-reflection and marine-magnetic data from offshore central California--San Gregorio to Point Sur

The U.S. Geological Survey collected high-resolution seismic-reflection data on four surveys (S-N1-09-MB, S-15-10-NC, S-06-11-MB, and S-04-12-MB) and marine-magnetic data on one survey (S-06-11-MB) between 2009 and 2012, offshore of central California between San Gregorio and Point Sur. This work was supported in part by the California Seafloor Mapping Program. The survey areas span about 120 km of California's coast (including Monterey Bay). Most data were collected aboard the U.S. Geological Survey R/V Parke Snavely. Cumulatively, approximately 1,410 km of single-channel seismic-reflection data were acquired, mainly using a SIG 2mille minisparker. About 44 km of data were collected simultaneously using an EdgeTech Chirp 512. Subbottom acoustic penetration spanned tens to several hundreds of meters, variable by location. Marine magnetic data were collected on approximately 460 km of track lines (mainly in southern Monterey Bay) using a Geometrics G882 cesium-vapor marine magnetometer. This report includes maps and navigation files of the surveyed transects, linked to Google Earth™ software, as well as digital data files showing images of each transect in SEG-Y and JPEG formats. The images of bedrock, sediment deposits, and tectonic structure provide geologic information that is essential to hazard assessment, regional sediment management, and coastal and marine spatial planning at Federal, State and local levels, as well as to future research on the geomorphic, sedimentary, tectonic, and climatic record of central California.

California

Water-quality monitoring strategy for Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary, southeastern Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP), began a study in 2018 to develop a water-quality monitoring strategy (WQMS) for Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary in southeastern Massachusetts. MassDEP is interested in water-quality data in Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary to characterize current water-quality conditions, assess nutrient-related effects, and capture conditions before and after planned upgrades to wastewater treatment facilities. The WQMS provides an overview of the environmental setting of Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary and of dissolved oxygen and nutrient-related water-quality issues, reviews historical and existing monitoring data, and provides recommendations for future monitoring designed to meet five MassDEP management objectives: (1) support MassDEP’s review of coastal and marine dissolved oxygen criteria, (2) assess conditions within MassDEP waterbody assessment units in Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary with respect to selected criteria in the Massachusetts Surface Water Quality Standards, (3) assess conditions along the freshwater/saltwater interface (salt wedge) of the Taunton River Estuary and delineate the boundary between the freshwater and saltwater waterbody assessment units, (4) estimate data requirements needed to determine nutrient loads flowing into Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary, and (5) evaluate data requirements needed to support hydrodynamic and water-quality models for Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary. This WQMS may be used by MassDEP to develop a statewide approach for monitoring estuaries in Massachusetts.

Massachusetts

A study of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and tsunami: Numerical and analytical approaches

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) is employed to model the tsunami evolution through the Pacific Ocean. Because only a short time is available for emergency response, and since the earthquake and tsunami sources are close to the coast, gaining a rapid understanding of the near-field run-up behavior is highly relevant to Chile. Therefore, an analytical solution of the 2 ? 1 D shallow water wave equations is considered. With this solution, we show that we can quickly estimate the run-up distribution along the coastline, to first order. After the earthquake and tsunami, field observations were measured in the surrounded coastal region, where the tsunami resulted in significant run-up. First, we compare the analytical and numerical solutions to test the accuracy of the analytical approach and the field observations, implying the analytic approach can accurately model tsunami run-up after an earthquake, without sacrificing the time necessary for a full numerical inversion. Then, we compare both with field run-up measurements. We observe the consistency between the two approaches. To complete the analysis, a tsunami source inversion is performed using run-up field measurements only. These inversion results are compared with seismic models, and are shown to capture the broad-scale details of those models, without the necessity of the detailed data sets they invert.

Illapel

Proceedings of a Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Workshop for the Western United States

Recent scientific and ocean policy assessments demonstrate that a fundamental change in our current management system is required to achieve the long-term health of our ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes in order to sustain the services and benefits they provide to society. The present (2011) species- and sector-centric way we manage these ecosystems cannot account properly for cumulative effects, sustaining multiple ecosystem services, and holistically and explicitly evaluating the tradeoffs associated with proposed alternative and multiple human uses. A transition to an ecosystem-based approach to management and conservation of coastal and marine resources is needed. Competing uses and activities such as commerce, recreation, cultural practices, energy development, conservation, and national security are increasing pressure for new and expanded resource usage in coastal marine ecosystems. Current management efforts use a sector-by-sector approach that mostly focuses on a limited range of tools and outcomes [for example, oil and gas leases, fishery management plans, and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)]. A comprehensive, ecosystem-based, and proactive approach to planning and managing these uses and activities is needed. Further, scientific understanding and information are essential to achieve an integrated decision-making process that includes knowledge of ecosystem services, existing and possible future conditions, and potential consequences of natural and anthropogenic events. Because no single government agency has executive authority for coastal or ocean resources, conflicting objectives around competing uses abound. In recent years, regional- and state-level initiatives in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) have emerged to coordinate management activities. In some respects, the components and steps of the overall CMSP process are similar to how existing ocean resources are regulated and managed. For example, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) uses spatial planning exercises in State Renewable Energy Task Force meetings to identify competing and conflicting ocean uses, and to delineate areas suitable for renewable energy development. Similarly terrestrial areas such as in national parks and national wildlife refuges managed by the Department of the Interior (DOI) prepare management plans for preservation and restoration of species and habitats of concern, some of which are protected by law. The analogy to CMSP is clear - multiple users and multiple expectations, resulting in the requirement to establish spatial plans for management of different resources and different ecosystem services. A two-day workshop on December 1-2, 2010, was convened for DOI representatives and several key non-DOI participants with roles in CMSP as a step toward clarifying national perspectives and consequences of the National Ocean Policy for the West (appendix 1). Discussions helped to develop an understanding of CMSP from the federal perspective and to identify regional priorities. An overarching theme was to promote a better understanding of current and future science needs. The workshop format included briefings by key Federal agencies on their understanding of the national focus followed by discussion of regional issues, including the needs for scientific information and coordination. The workshop also explored potential science contributions by Federal agencies and others; utilizing current capabilities, data, and information systems; and provided a foundation for possible future regional workshops focusing in turn on the West Coast Region (California, Oregon, and Washington), Pacific Islands (sometimes referred to as Oceania) and Alaska. Participants were asked to share information in the following areas, recognizing that the purpose would be to learn more about the national perspective (see appendixes 2-4): Explore how the Western U.S. (Alaska, Pacific Islands, and West Coast Region) migh

Open-File Report

Simulation and Particle-Tracking Analysis of Selected Ground-Water Pumping Scenarios at Vogtle Electric Generation Plant, Burke County, Georgia

The source of ground water to production wells at Vogtle Electric Generation Plant (VEGP), a nuclear power plant in Burke County, Georgia, was simulated under existing (2002) and potential future pumping conditions using an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) MODFLOW ground-water flow model of a 4,455-square-mile area in the Coastal Plain of Georgia and South Carolina. Simulation results for three steady-state pumping scenarios were compared to each other and to a 2002 Base Case condition. The pumping scenarios focused on pumping increases at VEGP resulting from projected future demands and the addition of two electrical-generating reactor units. Scenarios simulated pumping increases at VEGP ranging from 1.09 to 3.42 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), with one of the scenarios simulating the elimination of 5.3 Mgal/d of pumping at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a U.S. Department of Energy facility located across the Savannah River from VEGP. The largest simulated water-level changes at VEGP were for the scenario whereby pumping at the facility was more than tripled, resulting in drawdown exceeding 4-8 feet (ft) in the aquifers screened in the production wells. For the scenario that eliminated pumping at SRS, water-level rises of as much as 4-8 ft were simulated in the same aquifers at SRS. Results of MODFLOW simulations were analyzed using the USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH to determine the source of water and associated time of travel to VEGP production wells. For each of the scenarios, most of the recharge to VEGP wells originated in an upland area near the county line between Burke and Jefferson Counties, Georgia, with none of the recharge originating on SRS or elsewhere in South Carolina. An exception occurs for the scenario whereby pumping at VEGP was more than tripled. For this scenario, some of the recharge originates in an upland area in eastern Barnwell County, South Carolina. Simulated mean time of travel from recharge areas to VEGP wells for the Base Case and the three other pumping scenarios was between about 2,700 and 3,800 years, with some variation related to changes in head gradients because of pumping changes.

Georgia

Evidence for earthquake triggering of large landslides in coastal Oregon, USA

Landslides are ubiquitous along the Oregon coast. Many are large, deep slides in sedimentary rock and are dormant or active only during the rainy season. Morphology, observed movement rates, and total movement suggest that many are at least several hundreds of years old. The offshore Cascadia subduction zone produces great earthquakes every 300–500 years that generate tsunami that inundate the coast within minutes. Many slides and slide-prone areas underlie tsunami evacuation and emergency response routes. We evaluated the likelihood of existing and future large rockslides being triggered by pore-water pressure increase or earthquake-induced ground motion using field observations and modeling of three typical slides. Monitoring for 2–9 years indicated that the rockslides reactivate when pore pressures exceed readily identifiable levels. Measurements of total movement and observed movement rates suggest that two of the rockslides are 296–336 years old (the third could not be dated). The most recent great Cascadia earthquake was M 9.0 and occurred during January 1700, while regional climatological conditions have been stable for at least the past 600 years. Hence, the estimated ages of the slides support earthquake ground motion as their triggering mechanism. Limit-equilibrium slope-stability modeling suggests that increased pore-water pressures could not trigger formation of the observed slides, even when accompanied by progressive strength loss. Modeling suggests that ground accelerations comparable to those recorded at geologically similar sites during the M 9.0, 11 March 2011 Japan Trench subduction-zone earthquake would trigger formation of the rockslides. Displacement modeling following the Newmark approach suggests that the rockslides would move only centimeters upon coseismic formation; however, coseismic reactivation of existing rockslides would involve meters of displacement. Our findings provide better understanding of the dynamic coastal bluff environment and hazards from future subduction-zone earthquakes.

Oregon