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Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we consider both a double‐truncated 2σ Gaussian and a boxcar distribution of slip rates and use a Monte Carlo simulation to sample the entire range of the distribution for California fault‐slip rates. We compute the seismic hazard following the methodology and logic‐tree branch weights applied to the 2014 national seismic hazard model (NSHM) for the western U.S. region (Petersen et al., 2014, 2015). By applying a new approach developed in this study to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using precomputed rates of exceedance from each fault as a Green’s function, we reduce the computer time by about 10^5‐fold and apply it to the mean PSHA estimates with 1000 Monte Carlo samples of fault‐slip rates to compare with results calculated using only the mean or preferred slip rates. The difference in the mean probabilistic peak ground motion corresponding to a 2% in 50‐yr probability of exceedance is less than 1% on average over all of California for both the Gaussian and boxcar probability distributions for slip‐rate uncertainty but reaches about 18% in areas near faults compared with that calculated using the mean or preferred slip rates. The average uncertainties in 1σ peak ground‐motion level are 5.5% and 7.3% of the mean with the relative maximum uncertainties of 53% and 63% for the Gaussian and boxcar probability density function (PDF), respectively.

Seismological Research Letters

Preliminary geologic map of the Val Verde 7.5' quadrangle, southern California: A digital database

This Open-File report is a digital geologic map database. A pamphlet serves to introduce and describe the digital data. There is no paper map included in the Open-File report. This digital map database is compiled from previously published sources combined with some new mapping and modifications in nomenclature. The geologic map database delineates map units that are identified by general age and lithology following the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. For detailed descriptions of the units, their stratigraphic relations and sources of geologic mapping consult Yerkes and Campbell (1995). More specific information about the units may be available in the original sources.

California

Preliminary geologic map of the Malibu Beach 7.5' quadrangle, Southern California: A digital database

This Open-File report is a digital geologic map database. This pamphlet serves to introduce and describe the digital data. There is no paper map included in the Open-File report. This digital map database is compiled from previously published sources combined with some new mapping and modifications in nomenclature. The geologic map database delineates map units that are identified by general age and lithology following the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. For detailed descriptions of the units, their stratigraphic relations, sources of geologic mapping, and data on exploratory wells consult Yerkes and Campbell (1980), and Yerkes and Showalter (1990). More specific information about the units may be available in the original sources.

California

Preliminary geologic map of the Santa Susana 7.5' quadrangle, southern California: A digital database

This Open-File report is a digital geologic map database. This pamphlet serves to introduce and describe the digital data. There is no paper map included in the Open-File report. This digital map database is compiled from previously published sources combined with some new mapping and modifications in nomenclature. The geologic map database delineates map units that are identified by general age and lithology following the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. For detailed descriptions of the units, their stratigraphic relations, sources of geologic mapping, and data on exploratory wells consult Yerkes and Campbell (1995), and Yerkes and Showalter (1990). More specific information about the units may be available in the original sources.

California

Preliminary geologic map of the Newbury Park 7.5' quadrangle, Southern California: A digital database

This Open-File report is a digital geologic map database. This pamphlet serves to introduce and describe the digital data. There is no paper map included in the Open-File report. This digital map database is compiled from previously published sources combined with some new mapping and modifications in nomenclature. The geologic map database delineates map units that are identified by general age and lithology following the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. For detailed descriptions of the units, their stratigraphic relations, sources of geologic mapping, and data on exploratory wells consult Yerkes and Campbell (1997), and Yerkes and Showalter (1990). More specific information about the units may be available in the original sources.

Open-File Report

Geology of the San Francisco North quadrangle, California

San Francisco is a heavily built up city in a region of active faults and is subject to earthquakes and landslides. In such an area careful selection of building sites and foundations is imperative. This geologic investigation of the San Francisco North quadrangle was carried out to obtain basic geologic data to aid in construction and other civil engineering problems. The study also contributes to a better understanding of the geology of this part of the Coast Ranges in general and of the Franciscan Formation and surficial deposits in particular. On the geologic map (pl. 1) , consolidated rocks are delineated by their composition, age, and origin. Such a classification also gives an approximate indication of the engineering properties of each formation. To make the map more useful to the civil engineer, unconsolidated deposits are shown where thick enough to be depicted. This report and the accompanying map should be a useful guide for planning foundation studies necessary in engineering design.

California

Major improvements in progress for Southern California Earthquake Monitoring

Major improvements in seismic and strong-motion monitoring networks are being implemented in southern California to better meet the needs of emergency response personnel, structural engineers, and the research community in promoting earthquake hazard reduction. Known as the TriNet project, the improvements are being coordinated by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) of the state's Department of Conservation. Already the ambitious instrument and system development project has started to record and disseminate ground motions from a spatially dense and robust network of high quality seismographs.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Sea-floor images and data from multibeam surveys in San Francisco Bay, Southern California, Hawaii, the Gulf of Mexico, and Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada

Accurate base maps are a prerequisite for any geologic study, regardless of the objectives. Land-based studies commonly utilize aerial photographs, USGS 7.5-minute quadrangle maps, and satellite images as base maps. Until now, studies that involve the ocean floor have been at a disadvantage due to an almost complete lack of accurate marine base maps. Many base maps of the sea floor have been constructed over the past century but with a wide range in navigational and depth accuracies. Only in the past few years has marine surveying technology advanced far enough to produce navigational accuracy of 1 meter and depth resolutions of 50 centimeters. The Pacific Seafloor Mapping Project of the U.S. Geological Survey's, Western Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Menlo Park, California, U.S.A., in cooperation with the Ocean Mapping Group, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, Canada, is using this new technology to systematically map the ocean floor and lakes. This type of marine surveying, called multibeam surveying, collects high-resolution bathymetric and backscatter data that can be used for various base maps, GIS coverages, and scientific visualization methods. This is an interactive CD-ROM that contains images, movies, and data of all the surveys the Pacific Seafloor Mapping Project has completed up to January 1999. The images and movies on this CD-ROM, such as shaded relief of the bathymetry, backscatter, oblique views, 3-D views, and QuickTime movies help the viewer to visualize the multibeam data. This CD-ROM also contains ARC/INFO export (.e00) files and full-resolution TIFF images of all the survey sites that can be downloaded and used in many GIS packages.

Data Series

Geologic map of the Fifteenmile Valley 7.5' quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California

Open-File Report OF 01-132 contains a digital geologic map database of the Fifteenmile Valley 7.5’ quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California that includes: 1. ARC/INFO (Environmental Systems Research Institute, http://www.esri.com) version 7.2.1 coverages of the various elements of the geologic map. 2. A PostScript file to plot the geologic map on a topographic base, and containing a Correlation of Map Units diagram, a Description of Map Units, an index map, and a regional structure map. 3. Portable Document Format (.pdf) files of: a. This Readme; includes in Appendix I, data contained in fif_met.txt b. The same graphic as plotted in 2 above. (Test plots have not produced 1:24,000-scale map sheets. Adobe Acrobat pagesize setting influences map scale.) The Correlation of Map Units (CMU) and Description of Map Units (DMU) is in the editorial format of USGS Miscellaneous Investigations Series (I-series) maps. Within the geologic map data package, map units are identified by standard geologic map criteria such as formation-name, age, and lithology. Even though this is an author-prepared report, every attempt has been made to closely adhere to the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. Descriptions of units can be obtained by viewing or plotting the .pdf file (3b above) or plotting the postscript file (2 above). If roads in some areas, especially forest roads that parallel topographic contours, do not show well on plots of the geologic map, we recommend use of the USGS Fifteenmile Valley 7.5’ topographic quadrangle in conjunction with the geologic map.

California

Geologic map of the Cucamonga Peak 7.5' quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California

Open-File Report OF 01-311 contains a digital geologic map database of the Cucamonga Peak 7.5’ quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California that includes: 1. ARC/INFO (Environmental Systems Research Institute, http://www.esri.com) version 7.2.1 coverages of the various elements of the geologic map 2. A PostScript file to plot the geologic map on a topographic base, and containing a Correlation of Map Units diagram, a Description of Map Units, an index map, and a regional structure map 3. Portable Document Format (.pdf) files of: a. This Readme; includes in Appendix I, data contained in fif_met.txt b. The same graphic as plotted in 2 above. (Test plots have not produced 1:24,000-scale map sheets. Adobe Acrobat pagesize setting influences map scale.) The Correlation of Map Units and Description of Map Units is in the editorial format of USGS Miscellaneous Investigations Series (I-series) maps but has not been edited to comply with I-map standards. Within the geologic map data package, map units are identified by standard geologic map criteria such as formation-name, age, and lithology. Even though this is an author-prepared report, every attempt has been made to closely adhere to the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. Descriptions of units can be obtained by viewing or plotting the .pdf file (3b above) or plotting the postscript file (2 above). If roads in some areas, especially forest roads that parallel topographic contours, do not show well on plots of the geologic map, we recommend use of the USGS Cucamonga Peak 7.5’ topographic quadrangle in conjunction with the geologic map.

California

Geologic map of the Telegraph Peak 7.5' quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California

Open-File Report OF 01-293 contains a digital geologic map database of the Telegraph Peak 7.5’ quadrangle, San Bernardino County, California that includes: ARC/INFO (Environmental Systems Research Institute, http://www.esri.com) version 7.2.1 double precision coverages of the various elements of the geologic map. A PostScript file to plot the geologic map on a topographic base, and containing a Correlation of Map Units diagram, a Description of Map Units, an index map, and a regional structure map. Portable Document Format (.pdf) files of: a. This Readme; includes in Appendix I, data contained in fif_met.txt b. The same graphic as plotted in 2 above. Test plots have not produced 1:24,000-scale map sheets. Adobe Acrobat pagesize setting influences map scale. The Correlation of Map Units and Description of Map Units is in the editorial format of USGS Miscellaneous Investigations Series (I-series) maps but has not been edited to comply with I-map standards. Within the geologic map data package, map units are identified by standard geologic map criteria such as formation-name, age, and lithology. Even though this is an author-prepared report, every attempt has been made to closely adhere to the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U. S. Geological Survey. Descriptions of units can be obtained by viewing or plotting the .pdf file (3b above) or plotting the postscript file (2 above). If roads in some areas, especially forest roads that parallel topographic contours, do not show well on plots of the geologic map, we recommend use of the USGS Telegraph Peak 7.5’ topographic quadrangle in conjunction with the geologic map.

California

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

California

The nature and timing of tectonism in the western facies terrane of Nevada and California; an outline of evidence and interpretations derived from geologic maps of key areas

Along the outer miogeocline of Nevada and Southern California, lower Paleozoic siliceous sediments and basalt flows, the western facies terrane emerged in Late Devonian time and were deeply eroded; but structural evidence that this event, the Antler Orogeny, involved intense folding and thrust faulting is notably scarce. Almost all the intense folding and thrust faulting of Proterozoic to Permian strata dates from the Jurassic to Eocene interval. If this tectonic history is valid, then the genesis of the Antler Orogeny is reduced to a question of vertical tectonics. Pre-Jurassic contraction involving subduction and collision with island arcs is not indicated or required, but the ultimate origin of Paleozoic tectonism remains unclear.

Professional Paper

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Reyes, California

This publication about the Offshore of Point Reyes map area includes ten map sheets that contain explanatory text, in addition to this descriptive pamphlet and a data catalog of geographic information system (GIS) files. Sheets 1, 2, and 3 combine data from four different sonar surveys to generate comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter coverage of the map area. These data reveal a range of physiographic features (highlighted in the perspective views on sheet 4) such as the flat, sediment-covered seafloor in Drakes Bay, as well as abundant “scour depressions” on the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf (see sheet 9) and local, tectonically controlled bedrock uplifts. To validate geological and biological interpretations of the sonar data shown in sheets 1, 2, and 3, the U.S. Geological Survey towed a camera sled over specific offshore locations, collecting both video and photographic imagery; these “ground-truth” surveying data are summarized on sheet 6. Sheet 5 is a “seafloor character” map, which classifies the seafloor on the basis of depth, slope, rugosity (ruggedness), and backscatter intensity and which is further informed by the ground-truth-survey imagery. Sheet 7 is a map of “potential habitats,” which are delineated on the basis of substrate type, geomorphology, seafloor process, or other attributes that may provide a habitat for a specific species or assemblage of organisms. Sheet 8 compiles representative seismic-reflection profiles from the map area, providing information on the subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the map area. Sheet 9 shows the distribution and thickness of young sediment (deposited over the last about 21,000 years, during the most recent sea-level rise) in both the map area and the larger Salt Point to Drakes Bay region, interpreted on the basis of the seismic-reflection data, and it identifies the Offshore of Point Reyes map area as lying within the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf, Point Reyes bar, and Bolinas shelf domains. Sheet 10 is a geologic map that merges onshore geologic mapping (compiled from existing maps by the California Geological Survey) and new offshore geologic mapping that is based on integration of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter imagery (sheets 1, 2, 3), seafloor-sediment and rock samples (Reid and others, 2006), digital camera and video imagery (sheet 6), and high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (sheet 8), as well as aerial-photographic interpretation of nearshore areas. The information provided by the map sheets, pamphlet, and data catalog have a broad range of applications. High-resolution bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, ground-truth-surveying imagery, and habitat mapping all contribute to habitat characterization and ecosystem-based management by providing essential data for delineation of marine protected areas and ecosystem restoration. Many of the maps provide high-resolution baselines that will be critical for monitoring environmental change associated with climate change, coastal development, or other forcings. High-resolution bathymetry is a critical component for modeling coastal flooding caused by storms and tsunamis, as well as inundation associated with longer term sea-level rise. Seismic-reflection and bathymetric data help characterize earthquake and tsunami sources, critical for natural-hazard assessments of coastal zones. Information on sediment distribution and thickness is essential to the understanding of local and regional sediment transport, as well as the development of regional sediment-management plans. In addition, siting of any new offshore infrastructure (for example, pipelines, cables, or renewable-energy facilities) will depend on high-resolution mapping. Finally, this mapping will both stimulate and enable new scientific research and also raise public awareness of, and education about, coastal environments and issues.

California

Geologic map of the Corona South 7.5' quadrangle, Riverside and Orange counties, California

Open-File Report 01-021 contains a digital geologic map database of the Corona South 7.5’ quadrangle, Riverside County, California that includes: 1. ARC/INFO (Environmental Systems Research Institute, http://www.esri.com) version 7.2.1 coverages of the various elements of the geologic map. 2. A Postscript file to plot the geologic map on a topographic base, and containing a Correlation of Map Units diagram (CMU), a Description of Map Units (DMU), and an index map. 3. Portable Document Format (.pdf) files of: a. A Readme file; includes in Appendix I, data contained in crs_met.txt b. The same graphic as plotted in 2 above. Test plots have not produced 1:24,000-scale map sheets. Adobe Acrobat page size setting influences map scale. The Correlation of Map Units and Description of Map Units is in the editorial format of USGS Geologic Investigations Series (I-series) maps but has not been edited to comply with I-map standards. Within the geologic map data package, map units are identified by standard geologic map criteria such as formation-name, age, and lithology. Where known, grain size is indicated on the map by a subscripted letter or letters following the unit symbols as follows: lg, large boulders; b, boulder; g, gravel; a, arenaceous; s, silt; c, clay; e.g. Qyfa is a predominantly young alluvial fan deposit that is arenaceous. Multiple letters are used for more specific identification or for mixed units, e.g., Qfysa is a silty sand. In some cases, mixed units are indicated by a compound symbol; e.g., Qyf2sc. Marine deposits are in part overlain by local, mostly alluvial fan, deposits and are labeled Qomf. Grain size follows f. Even though this is an Open-File Report and includes the standard USGS Open-File disclaimer, the report closely adheres to the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U.S. Geological Survey. Descriptions of units can be obtained by viewing or plotting the .pdf file (3b above) or plotting the postscript file (2 above).

California