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USGS2014

The UCERF3 grand inversion: Solving for the long‐term rate of ruptures in a fault system

We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We employ a parallel simulated annealing algorithm to solve for the long‐term rate of all ruptures that extend through the seismogenic thickness on major mapped faults in California while simultaneously satisfying available slip‐rate, paleoseismic event‐rate, and magnitude‐distribution constraints. The inversion methodology enables the relaxation of fault segmentation and allows for the incorporation of multifault ruptures, which are needed to remove magnitude‐distribution misfits that were present in the previous model, UCERF2. The grand inversion is more objective than past methodologies, as it eliminates the need to prescriptively assign rupture rates. It also provides a means to easily update the model as new data become available. In addition to UCERF3 model results, we present verification of the grand inversion, including sensitivity tests, tuning of equation set weights, convergence metrics, and a synthetic test. These tests demonstrate that while individual rupture rates are poorly resolved by the data, integrated quantities such as magnitude–frequency distributions and, most importantly, hazard metrics, are much more robust.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Modeling the effects of source and path heterogeneity on ground motions of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 3D simulations

We ran finite‐difference earthquake simulations for great subduction zone earthquakes in Cascadia to model the effects of source and path heterogeneity for the purpose of improving strong‐motion predictions. We developed a rupture model for large subduction zone earthquakes based on a k −2 slip spectrum and scale‐dependent rise times by representing the slip distribution as the sum of normal modes of a vibrating membrane. Finite source and path effects were important in determining the distribution of strong motions through the locations of the hypocenter, subevents, and crustal structures like sedimentary basins. Some regions in Cascadia appear to be at greater risk than others during an event due to the geometry of the Cascadia fault zone relative to the coast and populated regions. The southern Oregon coast appears to have increased risk because it is closer to the locked zone of the Cascadia fault than other coastal areas and is also in the path of directivity amplification from any rupture propagating north to south in that part of the subduction zone, and the basins in the Puget Sound area are efficiently amplified by both north and south propagating ruptures off the coast of western Washington. We find that the median spectral accelerations at 5 s period from the simulations are similar to that of the Zhao et al. (2006) ground‐motion prediction equation, although our simulations predict higher amplitudes near the region of greatest slip and in the sedimentary basins, such as the Seattle basin.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

How complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

The International Seismological Centre, in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model effort, has released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness ( M c ) as a function of time by dividing the earthquakes shallower than 60 km into 7 time periods based on major changes in catalog processing and data availability and applying 4 objective methods to determine M c , with uncertainties determined by non-parametric bootstrapping. Deeper events were divided into 2 time periods. Due to differences between the 4 methods, the final M c was determined subjectively by examining the features that each method focused on in both the cumulative and binned magnitude frequency distributions. The time periods and M c values for shallow events are: 1900-1917, M c =7.7; 1918-1939, M c =7.0; 1940-1954, M c =6.8; 1955-1963, M c =6.5; 1964-1975, M c =6.0; 1976-2003, M c =5.8; and 2004-2009, M c =5.7. Using these M c values for the longest time periods they are valid for (e.g. 1918-2009, 1940-2009,…) the shallow data fits a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with b =1.05 and a =8.3, within 1 standard deviation, with no declustering. The exception is for time periods that include 1900-1917 in which there are only 33 events with M ≥ M c and for those few data b =2.15±0.46. That result calls for further investigations for this time period, ideally having a larger number of earthquakes. For deep events, the results are M c =7.1 for 1900-1963, although the early data are problematic; and M c =5.7 for 1964-2009. For that later time period, b =0.99 and a =7.3.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Offset of latest pleistocene shoreface reveals slip rate on the Hosgri strike-slip fault, offshore central California

The Hosgri fault is the southern part of the regional Hosgri–San Gregorio dextral strike‐slip fault system, which extends primarily in the offshore for about 400 km in central California. Between Morro Bay and San Simeon, high‐resolution multibeam bathymetry reveals that the eastern strand of the Hosgri fault is crossed by an &sim;265  m wide slope interpreted as the shoreface of a latest Pleistocene sand spit. This sand spit crossed an embayment and connected a western fault‐bounded bedrock peninsula and an eastern bedrock highland, a paleogeography resembling modern coastal geomorphology along the San Andreas fault. Detailed analysis of the relict shoreface with slope profiles and slope maps indicates a lateral slip rate of 2.6±0.9  mm/yr, considered a minimum rate for the Hosgri given the presence of an active western strand. This slip rate indicates that the Hosgri system takes up the largest share of the strike‐slip fault budget and is the most active strike‐slip fault west of the San Andreas fault in central California. This result further demonstrates the value and potential of high‐resolution bathymetry in characterization of active offshore faults.

California↗

USGS2015

Strong ground motion inferred from liquefaction caused by the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes

Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) in the epicentral region of the 1811–1812 New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes are inferred from liquefaction to have been no greater than &sim;0.35 g . PGA is inferred in an 11,380  km 2 area in the Lower Mississippi Valley in Arkansas and Missouri where liquefaction was extensive in 1811–1812. PGA was inferred by applying liquefaction probability curves, which were originally developed for liquefaction hazard mapping, to detailed maps of liquefaction by Obermeier (1989) . The low PGA is inferred because both a shallow (1.5 m deep) water table and a large moment magnitude ( M 7.7) earthquake were assumed in the analysis. If a deep (5.0 m) water table and a small magnitude ( M 6.8) earthquake are assumed, the maximum inferred PGA is 1.10 g . Both inferred PGA values are based on an assumed and poorly constrained correction for sand aging. If an aging correction is not assumed, then the inferred PGA is no greater than 0.22 g . A low PGA value may be explained by nonlinear site response. Soils in the study area have an average V S 30 of 220±15  m/s. A low inferred PGA is consistent with PGA values estimated from ground‐motion prediction equations that have been proposed for the New Madrid seismic zone when these estimates are corrected for nonlinear soil site effects. This application of liquefaction probability curves demonstrates their potential usefulness in paleoseismology.

Missouri↗

USGS2014

Adding fling effects to processed ground‐motion time histories

Fling is the engineering term for the effects of the permanent tectonic offset, caused by a rupturing fault in the recorded ground motions near the fault. It is expressed by a one‐sided pulse in ground velocity and a nonzero final displacement at the end of shaking. Standard processing of earthquake time histories removes some of the fling effects that may be required for engineering applications. A method to parameterize the fling‐step time history and to superimpose it onto traditionally processed time histories has been developed by Abrahamson (2002) . In this paper, we first present an update to the Abrahamson (2002) fling‐step models, in which the fling step is parameterized as a single cycle of a sine wave. Parametric models are presented for the sine‐wave amplitude ( D site ) and period ( T f ). The expressions for D site and T f are derived from an extensive set of finite‐fault simulations conducted on the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband platform (see Data and Resources). The simulations were run with the Graves and Pitarka (2010) hybrid simulation method and included strike‐slip and reverse scenarios for magnitudes of 6.0–8.2 and dips of 30 through 90. Next, an improved approach for developing design ground motions with fling effects is presented, which deals with the problem of double‐counting intermediate period components that were not removed by the standard ground‐motion processing. Finally, the results are validated against a set of 84 empirical recordings containing fling.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Understanding the magnitude dependence of PGA and PGV in NGA-West 2 data

The Next Generation Attenuation‐West 2 (NGA‐West 2) 2014 ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) model ground motions as a function of magnitude and distance, using empirically derived coefficients (e.g., Bozorgnia et al. , 2014 ); as such, these GMPEs do not clearly employ earthquake source parameters beyond moment magnitude ( M ) and focal mechanism. To better understand the magnitude‐dependent trends in the GMPEs, we build a comprehensive earthquake source‐based model to explain the magnitude dependence of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in the NGA‐West 2 ground‐motion databases and GMPEs. Our model employs existing models ( Hanks and McGuire, 1981 ; Boore, 1983 , 1986 ; Anderson and Hough, 1984 ) that incorporate a point‐source Brune model, including a constant stress drop and the high‐frequency attenuation parameter κ 0 , random vibration theory, and a finite‐fault assumption at the large magnitudes to describe the data from magnitudes 3 to 8. We partition this range into four different magnitude regions, each of which has different functional dependences on M . Use of the four magnitude partitions separately allows greater understanding of what happens in any one subrange, as well as the limiting conditions between the subranges. This model provides a remarkably good fit to the NGA data for magnitudes from 3< M <8 at close rupture distances ( R rup ≤20  km). We explore the trade‐offs between Δ σ and κ 0 in ground‐motion models and data, which play an important role in understanding small‐magnitude data, for which the corner frequency is masked by the attenuation of high frequencies. That this simple, source‐based model matches the NGA‐West 2 GMPEs and data so well suggests that considerable simplicity underlies the parametrically complex NGA GMPEs.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

A method and example of seismically imaging near‐surface fault zones in geologically complex areas using Vp, Vs, and their ratios

The determination of near‐surface (vadose zone and slightly below) fault locations and geometries is important because assessment of ground rupture, strong shaking, geologic slip rates, and rupture histories occurs at shallow depths. However, seismic imaging of fault zones at shallow depths can be difficult due to near‐surface complexities, such as weathering, groundwater saturation, massive (nonlayered) rocks, and vertically layered strata. Combined P ‐ and S ‐wave seismic‐refraction tomography data can overcome many of the near‐surface, fault‐zone seismic‐imaging problems because of differences in the responses of elastic (bulk and shear) moduli of P and S waves to shallow‐depth, fault‐zone properties. We show that high‐resolution refraction tomography images of P ‐ to S ‐wave velocity ratios ( V P / V S ) can reliably identify near‐surface faults. We demonstrate this method using tomography images of the San Andreas fault (SAF) surface‐rupture zone associated with the 18 April 1906 ∼ M 7.9 San Francisco earthquake on the San Francisco peninsula in California. There, the SAF cuts through Franciscan mélange, which consists of an incoherent assemblage of greywacke, chert, greenstone, and serpentinite. A near‐vertical zone (∼75° northeast dip) of high P ‐wave velocities (up to 3000 m/s), low S ‐wave velocities (∼150–600 m/s), high V P / V S ratios (4–8.8), and high Poisson’s ratios (0.44–0.49) characterizes the main surface‐rupture zone to a depth of about 20 m and is consistent with nearby trench observations. We suggest that the combined V P / V S imaging approach can reliably identify most near‐surface fault zones in locations where many other seismic methods cannot be applied.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

A V S30 map for California with geologic and topographic constraints

For many earthquake engineering applications, site response is estimated through empirical correlations with the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m depth ( V S 30 ). These applications therefore depend on the availability of either site‐specific V S 30 measurements or V S 30 maps at local, regional, and global scales. Because V S 30 measurements are sparse, a proxy frequently is needed to estimate V S 30 at unsampled locations. We present a new V S 30 map for California, which accounts for observational constraints from multiple sources and spatial scales, such as geology, topography, and site‐specific V S 30 measurements. We apply the geostatistical approach of regression kriging (RK) to combine these constraints for predicting V S 30 . For the V S 30 trend, we start with geology‐based V S 30 values and identify two distinct trends between topographic gradient and the residuals from the geology V S 30 model. One trend applies to deep and fine Quaternary alluvium, whereas the second trend is slightly stronger and applies to Pleistocene sedimentary units. The RK framework ensures that the resulting map of California is locally refined to reflect the rapidly expanding database of V S 30 measurements throughout California. We compare the accuracy of the new mapping method to a previously developed map of V S 30 for California. We also illustrate the sensitivity of ground motions to the new V S 30 map by comparing real and scenario ShakeMaps with V S 30 values from our new map to those for existing V S 30 maps.

California↗

USGS2014

Imaging P and S attenuation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region, northern California

We obtain 3-D Qp and Qs models for the Delta region of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, a large fluvial-agricultural portion of the Great Valley located between the Sierra Nevada batholith and the San Francisco Bay - Coast Ranges region of active faulting. Path attenuation t* values have been obtained for P and S data from 124 distributed earthquakes, with a longer variable window for S based on the energy integral. We use frequency dependence of 0.5 consistent with other studies, and weakly favored by the t* S data. A regional initial model was obtained by solving for Q as a function of velocity. In the final model, the Great Valley basin has low Q with very low Q (<50) for the shallowest portion of the Delta. There is an underlying strong Q contrast to the ophiolite basement which is thickest with highest Q under the Sacramento basin, and a change in structure is apparent across the Suisun Bay as a transition to thinner ophiolite. Moderately low Q is found in the upper crust west of the Delta region along the faults in the eastern North Bay Area, while, moderately high Q is found south of the Delta, implying potentially stronger ground motion for earthquake sources to the south. Very low Q values in the shallow crust along parts of the major fault zones may relate to sediment and abundant microfractures. In the lower crust below the San Andreas and Calaveras-Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault zones, the observed low Q is consistent with grain-size reduction in ductile shear zones and is lowest under the San Andreas which has large cumulative strain. Similarly moderately low Q in the ductile lower crust of the Bay Area block between the major fault zones implies a broad distributed shear zone.

California↗

USGS2014

Late Holocene slip rate and ages of prehistoric earthquakes along the Maacama Fault near Willits, Mendocino County, northern California

The Maacama fault is the northward continuation of the Hayward–Rodgers Creek fault system and creeps at a rate of 5.7±0.1 mm/yr (averaged over the last 20 years) in Willits, California. Our paleoseismic studies at Haehl Creek suggest that the Maacama fault has produced infrequent large earthquakes in addition to creep. Fault terminations observed in several excavations provide evidence that a prehistoric surface‐rupturing earthquake occurred between 1060 and 1180 calibrated years (cal) B.P. at the Haehl Creek site. A folding event, which we attribute to a more recent large earthquake, occurred between 790 and 1060 cal B.P. In the last 560–690 years, a buried channel deposit has been offset 4.6±0.2 m, giving an average slip rate of 6.4–8.6 mm/yr, which is higher than the creep rate over the last 20 years. The difference between this slip rate and the creep rate suggests that coseismic slip up to 1.7 m could have occurred after the formation of the channel deposit and could be due to a paleoearthquake known from paleoseismic studies in the Ukiah Valley, about 25 km to the southeast. Therefore, we infer that at least two, and possibly three, large earthquakes have occurred at the Haehl Creek site since 1180 cal B.P. (770 C.E.), consistent with earlier studies suggesting infrequent, large earthquakes on the Maacama fault. The short‐term geodetic slip rate across the Maacama fault zone is approximately twice the slip rate that we have documented at the Haehl Creek site, which is averaged over the last approximately 600 years. If the geodetic rate represents the long‐term slip accumulation across the fault zone, then we infer that, in the last ∼1200 years, additional earthquakes may have occurred either on the Haehl Creek segment of the Maacama fault or on other active faults within the Maacama fault zone at this latitude.

California↗

USGS2014

The 2001-present induced earthquake sequence in the Raton Basin of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado

We investigate the ongoing seismicity in the Raton Basin and find that the deep injection of wastewater from the coal‐bed methane field is responsible for inducing the majority of the seismicity since 2001. Many lines of evidence indicate that this earthquake sequence was induced by wastewater injection. First, there was a marked increase in seismicity shortly after major fluid injection began in the Raton Basin in 1999. From 1972 through July 2001, there was one M≥4 earthquake in the Raton Basin, whereas 12 occurred between August 2001 and 2013. The statistical likelihood that such a rate change would occur if earthquakes behaved randomly in time is 3.0%. Moreover, this rate change is limited to the area of industrial activity. Earthquake rates remain low in the surrounding area. Second, the vast majority of the seismicity is within 5 km of active disposal wells and is shallow, ranging between 2 and 8 km depth. The two most carefully studied earthquake sequences in 2001 and 2011 have earthquakes within 2 km of high‐volume, high‐injection‐rate wells. Third, injection wells in the area are commonly very high volume and high rate. Two wells adjacent to the August 2011 M 5.3 earthquake injected about 4.9 million cubic meters of wastewater before the earthquake, more than seven times the amount injected at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal well that caused damaging earthquakes near Denver, Colorado, in the 1960s. The August 2011 M 5.3 event is the second‐largest earthquake to date for which there is clear evidence that the earthquake sequence was induced by fluid injection.

Colorado;New Mexico↗

USGS2014

Seismic‐wave attenuation determined from tectonic tremor in multiple subduction zones

Tectonic tremor provides a new source of observations that can be used to constrain the seismic attenuation parameter for ground‐motion prediction and hazard mapping. Traditionally, recorded earthquakes of magnitude ∼3–8 are used to develop ground‐motion prediction equations; however, typical earthquake records may be sparse in areas of high hazard. In this study, we constrain the distance decay of seismic waves using measurements of the amplitude decay of tectonic tremor, which is plentiful in some regions. Tectonic tremor occurs in the frequency band of interest for ground‐motion prediction (i.e., ∼2–8 Hz) and is located on the subducting plate interface, at the lower boundary of where future large earthquakes are expected. We empirically fit the distance decay of peak ground velocity from tremor to determine the attenuation parameter in four subduction zones: Nankai, Japan; Cascadia, United States–Canada; Jalisco, Mexico; and southern Chile. With the large amount of data available from tremor, we show that in the upper plate, the lower crust is less attenuating than the upper crust. We apply the same analysis to intraslab events in Nankai and show the possibility that waves traveling from deeper intraslab events experience more attenuation than those from the shallower tremor due to ray paths that pass through the subducting and highly attenuating oceanic crust. This suggests that high pore‐fluid pressure is present in the tremor source region. These differences imply that the attenuation parameter determined from intraslab earthquakes may underestimate ground motion for future large earthquakes on the plate interface.

Cascadia↗

USGS2014

Relation of landslides triggered by the Kiholo Bay earthquake to modeled ground motion

The 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii, earthquake triggered high concentrations of rock falls and slides in the steep canyons of the Kohala Mountains along the north coast of Hawaii. Within these mountains and canyons a complex distribution of landslides was triggered by the earthquake shaking. In parts of the area, landslides were preferentially located on east‐facing slopes, whereas in other parts of the canyons no systematic pattern prevailed with respect to slope aspect or vertical position on the slopes. The geology within the canyons is homogeneous, so we hypothesize that the variable landslide distribution is the result of localized variation in ground shaking; therefore, we used a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution ground‐motion simulation model to see if it could reproduce the landslide‐distribution patterns. We used a 3D finite‐element analysis to model earthquake shaking using a 10 m digital elevation model and slip on a finite‐fault model constructed from teleseismic records of the mainshock. Ground velocity time histories were calculated up to a frequency of 5 Hz. Dynamic shear strain also was calculated and compared with the landslide distribution. Results were mixed for the velocity simulations, with some areas showing correlation of landslide locations with peak modeled ground motions but many other areas showing no such correlation. Results were much improved for the comparison with dynamic shear strain. This suggests that (1) rock falls and slides are possibly triggered by higher frequency ground motions (velocities) than those in our simulations, (2) the ground‐motion velocity model needs more refinement, or (3) dynamic shear strain may be a more fundamental measurement of the decoupling process of slope materials during seismic shaking.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2014

Path durations for use in the stochastic‐method simulation of ground motions

The stochastic method of ground‐motion simulation assumes that the energy in a target spectrum is spread over a duration D T . D T is generally decomposed into the duration due to source effects (D S ) and to path effects (D P ). For the most commonly used source, seismological theory directly relates D S to the source corner frequency, accounting for the magnitude scaling of D T . In contrast, D P is related to propagation effects that are more difficult to represent by analytic equations based on the physics of the process. We are primarily motivated to revisit D T because the function currently employed by many implementations of the stochastic method for active tectonic regions underpredicts observed durations, leading to an overprediction of ground motions for a given target spectrum. Further, there is some inconsistency in the literature regarding which empirical duration corresponds to D T . Thus, we begin by clarifying the relationship between empirical durations and D T as used in the first author’s implementation of the stochastic method, and then we develop a new D P relationship. The new D P function gives significantly longer durations than in the previous D P function, but the relative contribution of D P to D T still diminishes with increasing magnitude. Thus, this correction is more important for small events or subfaults of larger events modeled with the stochastic finite‐fault method.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Paleoseismic evidence for late Holocene tectonic deformation along the Saddle mountain fault zone, Southeastern Olympic Peninsula, Washington

Trench and wetland coring studies show that northeast‐striking strands of the Saddle Mountain fault zone ruptured the ground about 1000 years ago, generating prominent scarps. Three conspicuous subparallel fault scarps can be traced for 15 km on Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery, traversing the foothills of the southeast Olympic Mountains: the Saddle Mountain east fault, the Saddle Mountain west fault, and the newly identified Sund Creek fault. Uplift of the Saddle Mountain east fault scarp impounded stream flow, forming Price Lake and submerging an existing forest, thereby leaving drowned stumps still rooted in place. Stratigraphy mapped in two trenches, one across the Saddle Mountain east fault and the other across the Sund Creek fault, records one and two earthquakes, respectively, as faulting juxtaposed Miocene‐age bedrock against glacial and postglacial deposits. Although the stratigraphy demonstrates that reverse motion generated the scarps, slip indicators measured on fault surfaces suggest a component of left‐lateral slip. From trench exposures, we estimate the postglacial slip rate to be 0.2 mm/yr and between 0.7 and 3.2 mm/yr during the past 3000 years. Integrating radiocarbon data from this study with earlier Saddle Mountain fault studies into an OxCal Bayesian statistical chronology model constrains the most recent paleoearthquake age of rupture across all three Saddle Mountain faults to 1170–970 calibrated years (cal B.P.), which overlaps with the nearby M w 7.5 1050–1020 cal B.P. Seattle fault earthquake. An earlier earthquake recorded in the Sund Creek trench exposure, dates to around 3500 cal B.P. The geometry of the Saddle Mountain faults and their near‐synchronous rupture to nearby faults 1000 years ago suggest that the Saddle Mountain fault zone forms a western boundary fault along which the fore‐arc blocks migrate northward in response to margin‐parallel shortening across the Puget Lowland.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗