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USGS2012

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

Montana↗

USGS2002

Spatial correlations of Diceroprocta apache and its host plants: Evidence for a negative impact from Tamarix invasion

1. The hypothesis that the habitat-scale spatial distribution of the Apache cicada Diceroprocta apache Davis is unaffected by the presence of the invasive exotic saltcedar Tamarix ramosissima was tested using data from 205 1-m 2 quadrats placed within the flood-plain of the Bill Williams River, Arizona, U.S.A. Spatial dependencies within and between cicada density and habitat variables were estimated using Moran's I and its bivariate analogue to discern patterns and associations at spatial scales from 1 to 30 m. 2. Apache cicadas were spatially aggregated in high-density clusters averaging 3 m in diameter. A positive association between cicada density, estimated by exuvial density, and the per cent canopy cover of a native tree, Goodding's willow Salix gooddingii , was detected in a non-spatial correlation analysis. No non-spatial association between cicada density and saltcedar canopy cover was detected. 3. Tests for spatial cross-correlation using the bivariate I YZ indicated the presence of a broad-scale negative association between cicada density and saltcedar canopy cover. This result suggests that large continuous stands of saltcedar are associated with reduced cicada density. In contrast, positive associations detected at spatial scales larger than individual quadrats suggested a spill-over of high cicada density from areas featuring Goodding's willow canopy into surrounding saltcedar monoculture. 4. Taken together and considered in light of the Apache cicada's polyphagous habits, the observed spatial patterns suggest that broad-scale factors such as canopy heterogeneity affect cicada habitat use more than host plant selection. This has implications for management of lower Colorado River riparian woodlands to promote cicada presence and density through maintenance or creation of stands of native trees as well as manipulation of the characteristically dense and homogeneous saltcedar canopies.

Ecological Entomology↗

USGS2000

Aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence: Measurements, analyses, and simulations – The Holly Site, Edwards Air Force Base, Antelope Valley, California

Land subsidence resulting from ground-water-level declines has long been recognized as a problem in Antelope Valley, California. At Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB), ground-water extractions have caused more than 150 feet of water-level decline, resulting in nearly 4 feet of subsidence. Differential land subsidence has caused sinklike depressions and earth fissures and has accelerated erosion of the playa lakebed surface of Rogers Lake at EAFB, adversely affecting the runways on the lakebed which are used for landing aircraft such as the space shuttles. Since 1990, about 0.4 foot of aquifer-system compaction has been measured at a deep (840 feet) borehole extensometer (Holly site) at EAFB. More than 7 years of paired ground-water-level and aquifer-system compaction measurements made at the Holly site were analyzed for this study. Annually, seasonal water-level fluctuations correspond to steplike variations in aquifer-system compaction; summer water-level drawdowns are associated with larger rates of compaction, and winter water-level recoveries are associated with smaller rates of compaction. The absence of aquifer-system expansion during recovery is consistent with the delayed drainage and resultant delayed, or residual, compaction of thick aquitards. A numerical one-dimensional MODFLOW model of aquitard drainage was used to refine estimates of aquifer-system hydraulic parameters that control compaction and to predict potential future compaction at the Holly site. The analyses and simulations of aquifer-system compaction are based on established theories of aquitard drainage. Historical ground-water-level and land-subsidence data collected near the Holly site were used to constrain simulations of aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence at the site for the period 1908-90, and ground-water-level and aquifer- system compaction measurements collected at the Holly site were used to constrain the model for the period 1990-97. Model results indicate that two thick aquitards, which total 129 feet or about half the aggregate thickness of all the aquitards penetrated by the Holly boreholes, account for most (greater than 99 percent) of the compaction measured at the Holly site during the period 1990-97. The results of three scenarios of future water-level changes indicate that these two thick aquitards account for most of the future compaction. The results also indicate that if water levels decline to about 30 feet below the 1997 water levels an additional 1.7 feet of compaction may occur during the next 30 years. If water levels remain at 1997 levels, the model predicts that only 0.8 foot of compaction may occur during the same period, and even if water levels recover to about 30 feet above 1997 water levels, another 0.5 foot of compaction may occur in the next 30 years. In addition, only a portion of the compaction that ultimately will occur likely will occur within the next 30 years; therefore, the residual compaction and associated land subsidence attributed to slowly equilibrating aquitards is important to consider in the long-term management of land and water resources at EAFB.

California↗

USGS2011

Spatiotemporal distribution and population characteristicsof a nonnative lake trout population, with implications for suppression

We evaluated the distribution and population characteristics of nonnative lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake McDonald,Glacier National Park,Montana, to provide biological data in support of a potential suppression program. Using ultrasonic telemetry, we identified spatial and temporal distribution patterns by tracking 36 adult lake trout (1,137 relocations). Lake trout rarely occupied depths greater than 30 m and were commonly located in the upper hypolimnion directly below the metalimnion during thermal stratification. After breakdown of themetalimnion in the fall, lake trout primarily aggregated at two spawning sites. Lake trout population characteristics were similar to those of populations within the species' native range. However, lake trout in Lake McDonald exhibited lower total annual mortality (13.2%), latermaturity (age 12 formales, age 15 for females), lower body condition, and slower growth than are typically observed in the southern extent of their range. These results will be useful in determining where to target suppression activities (e.g., gillnetting, trap-netting, or electrofishing) and in evaluating responses to suppression efforts. Similar evaluations of lake trout distribution patterns and population characteristics are recommended to increase the likelihood that suppression programs will succeed. ?? American Fisheries Society 2011.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2025

Aggregating three sources of long-term trends of swallows and martins to identify priority conservation areas in the Great Lakes region

1. Long-term monitoring of bird populations across scales is important in evaluating conservation targets and creating effective conservation strategies. For nearly six decades, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has served as the primary broad-scaled source of relative abundance trends of swallows and martins in North America. Recently, however, it has become possible to obtain breeding population trends using semi-structured eBird community science data. Moreover, weather surveil-lance radar data of swallow and martin roosting populations yield a third complementary source of trend information. 2. Using results from these three approaches, we propose a novel method of spatially combining estimates of percent change per year into a probability of directional agreement and/or disagreement that describes (1) the direction of the trend within a given region, (2) the amount of evidence associated with the estimate and (3) how much uncertainty surrounds it. We focus our efforts on an area of high Hirundinidae concentration in the North American Great Lakes region and predict trends from 2012 to 2022. 3. We found a high probability of agreement between all three sources about ob-served declines in swallow and martin trends in the region surrounding Lake Ontario and to the west of Lake Michigan. Focusing future research on these regions could improve our understanding of these declines and help build more targeted conservation initiatives. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our data integration methodology allows managers to identify regions that accumulate evidence of concerning trends across multiple wildlife monitoring schemes. These regions can thus be prioritized in conservation and management efforts. This approach can be generalized to other sources of long-term monitoring data of different species, at different stages of their annual cycle, in any geographic location.

Great Lakes region↗

USGS2018

Continuing progress toward a national assessment of water availability and use

Executive Summary The Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111—11) was passed into law on March 30, 2009. Subtitle F, also known as the SECURE Water Act, calls for the establishment of a “national water availability and use assessment program” within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS issued the first report on the program in 2013. Program progress over the period 2013–17 is reported herein to fulfill the requirement to inform Congress on implementation of the national water availability and use assessment program, also referred to as the USGS National Water Census (the Water Census). Much work has been accomplished during 2013–17 on producing water budgets for the nation, a goal USGS outlined in its first report on program progress to Congress. The USGS has completed three geographic focus area studies and has begun three others. Work has advanced on nationwide efforts in streamflow analysis, groundwater assessment and research, evapotranspiration studies, water use, environmental water science, and drought science. The USGS works with Federal and non-Federal agencies, universities, and other organizations to ensure that the information can be aggregated with other types of water-availability and socioeconomic information, such as data on food and energy production. The USGS has also made great strides in measures for delivering data and information on the Water Census to stakeholders and the public. Much work remains to be accomplished for the Nation to have a comprehensive, ongoing Water Census. In this report, the USGS lays out activities to be accomplished in the next 5 years (2017–22), based upon current funding levels. These include selecting new focus area studies, conducting hydrologic modeling to complete water budgets for the conterminous United States, expanding groundwater modeling efforts, mapping a national classification system for environmental water science, and developing an inventory of interbasin water transfers. All of these steps are necessary in order for the Water Census to achieve the goals outlined by Congress in the SECURE Water Act.

Circular↗

USGS2026

Identifying overwintering habitat of silver and bighead carp in the lower Mississippi River: Implications for harvesting and population reduction

A total of 41 sites along a 58 mi reach of the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) were surveyed during winter 2022 for invasive carp aggregation.* Sites consisting of scallops closest to the dike-vegetated bank interface with deeper, slow-moving water and consistent access back to the main channel were preferred. Carp avoided strong currents, and there was no trend in depth selection other than avoiding shallow (less than 20 ft) water. In January 2023, recreation-grade sonar (e.g., side-scan and down-imaging) surveys were conducted in the same reach of the LMR to demonstrate the technology and evaluate carp population size at sites with high abundances based on previous surveys. Fish density was estimated to be 32 fish/10,000 yd 3 (95% confidence interval [CI; 31–34]) using down-imaging software, which is the first estimate of assumed bigheaded carp density in the LMR. Additional fish collections are needed to confirm species composition and size abundance provided by sonar technology. Resurveying sites with high carp abundance over a range of river stages would be necessary to fully characterize habitat conditions, evaluate influence of river stage on occupancy duration, and continue to evaluate species composition and mass removal techniques as a management option in the Lower Mississippi River.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2017

Movements of Atlantic Sturgeon of the Gulf of Maine inside and outside the geographically defined Distinct Population Segment

Identification of potential critical habitat, seasonal distributions, and movements within and between river systems is important for protecting the Gulf of Maine (GOM) Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic Sturgeon. To accomplish these objectives, we captured Atlantic Sturgeon in four GOM rivers (Penobscot, Kennebec system, Saco, and Merrimack), and tagged 144 (83.3–217.4 cm TL) internally with uniquely coded acoustic transmitters. Tagged fish were detected between 2006 to 2014 by primary receiver arrays deployed in the four GOM rivers or opportunistically on a secondary group of receivers deployed within the GOM and along the continental shelf. Atlantic Sturgeon tagged in the four rivers were documented at three spawning areas in the Kennebec system in June and July, including one that became accessible in 1999 when the Edwards Dam was removed. After being tagged, the majority (74%) of Atlantic sturgeon were detected in the estuaries of the four GOM rivers, primarily from May through October. Tagged fish spent most of their time in saline water in the Saco River and Merrimack River, moved into brackish water in the Penobscot River, and were found in saline, brackish, and fresh water in the Kennebec system. Approximately 70% of the tagged fish were detected in GOM coastal waters, and aggregated in the Bay of Fundy (May–January), offshore of the Penobscot River (September-February and May), offshore of the Kennebec River (September–February), in Saco Bay and the Scarborough River (July–November), and along the eastern Massachusetts coast between Cape Ann and Cape Cod (April–February). Nine tagged Atlantic sturgeon (7%) left the GOM, three of which moved as far north as Halifax in Canada and six moved as far south as the James River in Virginia. Information from this study will be used to make recommendations to avoid, reduce or mitigate the impacts of in-water projects and on Atlantic sturgeon.

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire↗

USGS2010

Analyzing debris flows with the statistically calibrated empirical model LAHARZ in southeastern Arizona, USA

Hazard-zone delineation for extreme events is essential for floodplain management near mountain fronts in arid and semiarid regions. On 31 July 2006, unprecedented debris flows occurred in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southeastern Arizona following extreme multiday precipitation (recurrence interval > 1000 years for 4-day precipitation). Most mobilized sediment contributing to debris flows was derived from shallow-seated failures of colluvium on steep slopes. A total of 435 slope failures in the southern Santa Catalina Mountains released 1.34 million Mg of sediment into the channels of 10 drainage basins. Five drainages produced debris flows that moved to the apices of alluvial fans on the southern edge of the mountain front, damaging infrastructure and aggrading channels to reduce future flood conveyance. Using the statistically calibrated, empirical debris-flow model LAHARZ and modified model coefficients developed to better match conditions in southeastern Arizona, we predicted the approximate area of deposition and travel distance in comparison to observed depositional areas and travel distance for seven debris flows. Two of the modeled debris flows represented single slope failures that terminated downslope with no additive influence of other debris flows or streamflow flooding. Five of the simulated debris flows represented the aggregation of multiple slope failures and streamflow flooding into multiple debris-flow pulses. Because LAHARZ is a debris-flow hazard-zone delineation tool, the complexity of alternating transport and deposition zones in channels with abrupt expansions and contractions reduces the applicability of the model in some drainage basins.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Effects of lake surface elevation on shoreline-spawning Lost River Suckers

We analyzed remote detection data from PIT-tagged Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus at four shoreline spawning areas in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, to determine whether spawning of this endangered species was affected by low water levels. Our investigation was motivated by the observation that the surface elevation of the lake during the 2010 spawning season was the lowest in 38 years. Irrigation withdrawals in 2009 that were not replenished by subsequent winter-spring inflows caused a reduction in available shoreline spawning habitat in 2010. We compared metrics of skipped spawning, movement among spawning areas, and spawning duration across 8 years (2006-2013) that had contrasting spring water levels. Some aspects of sucker spawning were similar in all years, including few individuals straying from the shoreline areas to spawning locations in lake tributaries and consistent effects of increasing water temperatures on the accumulation of fish at the spawning areas. During the extreme low water year of 2010, 14% fewer female and 8% fewer male suckers joined the shoreline spawning aggregation than in the other years. Both males and females visited fewer spawning areas within Upper Klamath Lake in 2010 than in other years, and the median duration at spawning areas in 2010 was at least 36% shorter for females and 20% shorter for males relative to other years. Given the imperiled status of the species and the declining abundance of the population in Upper Klamath Lake, any reduction in spawning success and egg production could negatively impact recovery efforts. Our results indicate that lake surface elevations above 1,262.3-1,262.5 m would be unlikely to limit the number of spawning fish and overall egg production.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

Spatial scale dependence of error in fractional component cover maps

Geospatial products such as fractional vegetation cover maps often report overall, pixel-wise accuracy, but decision-making with these products often occurs at coarser scales. As such, data users often desire guidance on the appropriate spatial scale to apply these data. We worked toward establishing this guidance by assessing RCMAP (Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection) accuracy relative to a series of high-resolution predictions of component cover. We scale the 2-m and RCMAP predictions to various focal window sizes scales ranging from 30 to 1 500 m using focal averaging. We also evaluated variation in scaling effects on error at ecoregion and pasture (mean area of 1 050 ha) scales. Our results demonstrate increased accuracy at broader windows, across all components, and most increases in accuracy level off at ∼200–600 m scales. At the scale with highest accuracy, cross-component average correlation ( r ) increased by 6.5%, and root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced 46.4% relative to 30-m scale data. Scaling-related improvements to accuracy were greatest in components such as shrub and tree with more spatially heterogeneous cover and in ecoregions with more spatially heterogenous cover. When components were aggregated at the pasture scale, r increased 10% and RMSE decreased 34.3% on average relative to the 30-m scale. Our results provide empirical data on the scale dependence of error, which fractional cover data users may consider alongside their needs when using these data. Although the general principle remains that remotely sensed products are intended to address landscape-scale questions, our analysis indicates that applying data at finer than landscape spatial scales and grouping even a handful of pixels resulted in lowered error compared to pixel-level comparisons. Our results quantify the trade-offs between data granularity and error related to scale for fractional vegetation cover.

western United States↗

USGS2020

Detecting cover crop end-of-season using VENµS and sentinel-2 satellite imagery

Cover crops are planted during the off-season to protect the soil and improve watershed management. The ability to map cover crop termination dates over agricultural landscapes is essential for quantifying conservation practice implementation, and enabling estimation of biomass accumulation during the active cover period. Remote sensing detection of end-of-season (termination) for cover crops has been limited by the lack of high spatial and temporal resolution observations and methods. In this paper, a new within-season termination (WIST) algorithm was developed to map cover crop termination dates using the Vegetation and Environment monitoring New Micro Satellite (VENµS) imagery (5 m, 2 days revisit). The WIST algorithm first detects the downward trend (senescent period) in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and then refines the estimate to the two dates with the most rapid rate of decrease in NDVI during the senescent period. The WIST algorithm was assessed using farm operation records for experimental fields at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center (BARC). The crop termination dates extracted from VENµS and Sentinel-2 time-series in 2019 and 2020 were compared to the recorded termination operation dates. The results show that the termination dates detected from the VENµS time-series (aggregated to 10 m) agree with the recorded harvest dates with a mean absolute difference of 2 days and uncertainty of 4 days. The operational Sentinel-2 time-series (10 m, 4–5 days revisit) also detected termination dates at BARC but had 7% missing and 10% false detections due to less frequent temporal observations. Near-real-time simulation using the VENµS time-series shows that the average lag times of termination detection are about 4 days for VENµS and 8 days for Sentinel-2, not including satellite data latency. The study demonstrates the potential for operational mapping of cover crop termination using high temporal and spatial resolution remote sensing data.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2024

Spawning run estimates and phenology for an extremely small population of Atlantic Sturgeon in the Marshyhope Creek–Nanticoke River system, Chesapeake Bay

Objective Once thought to be extirpated from the Chesapeake Bay, fall spawning runs of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus have been rediscovered in the Marshyhope Creek (MC)–Nanticoke River (NR) system of Maryland, United States. High recapture rates in past telemetry surveys suggested a small population in the two connected tributaries. This study aims to generate estimates of abundance and understand within system connectivity for spawning runs in 2020 and 2021. Methods Data from mobile side-scan sonar surveys and detections of acoustically tagged adults on stationary telemetry receivers were analyzed in an integrated model to estimate spawning season abundance and examine run timing and system connectivity for this population. An array of acoustic receivers was deployed throughout the MC–NR system to monitor the movement of tagged fish during the spawning run period from mid-August to late October. Side-scan sonar surveys were conducted weekly in September in an area of high spawner aggregation to generate count data on spawning run abundance. Result In 2020 and 2021, 32 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 23–47) and 70 (95% CRI = 49–105) Atlantic Sturgeon, respectively, used the MC–NR system. The lower estimate for 2020 coincided with an earlier end to the spawning run related to cooler September temperatures in that year. Conclusion In both years, high spawning run connectivity between MC and the upper NR was observed. Overall, run estimates supported previous hypotheses that the MC–NR system supports a very small population and that both MC and the upper NR serve as important areas for spawning activity.

Chesapeake Bay, Marshyhope Creek–Nanticoke River s↗

USGS2008

Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the contribution of building stock, its relative vulnerability, and distribution are vital components for determining the extent of casualties during an earthquake. It is evident from large deadly historical earthquakes that the distribution of vulnerable structures and their occupancy level during an earthquake control the severity of human losses. For example, though the number of strong earthquakes in California is comparable to that of Iran, the total earthquake-related casualties in California during the last 100 years are dramatically lower than the casualties from several individual Iranian earthquakes. The relatively low casualties count in California is attributed mainly to the fact that more than 90 percent of the building stock in California is made of wood and is designed to withstand moderate to large earthquakes (Kircher, Seligson and others, 2006). In contrast, the 80 percent adobe and or non-engineered masonry building stock with poor lateral load resisting systems in Iran succumbs even for moderate levels of ground shaking. Consequently, the heavy death toll for the 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake, which claimed 31,828 lives (Ghafory-Ashtiany and Mousavi, 2005), is directly attributable to such poorly resistant construction, and future events will produce comparable losses unless practices change. Similarly, multistory, precast-concrete framed buildings caused heavy casualties in the 1988 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (Bertero, 1989); weaker masonry and reinforced-concrete framed construction designed for gravity loads with soft first stories dominated losses in the Bhuj, India earthquake of 2001 (Madabhushi and Haigh, 2005); and adobe and weak masonry dwellings in Peru controlled the death toll in the Peru earthquake of 2007 (Taucer, J. and others, 2007). Spence (2007) after conducting a brief survey of most lethal earthquakes since 1960 found that building collapses remains a major cause of earthquake mortality and unreinforced masonry buildings are one of the mos

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Combination of acoustic telemetry and side-scan sonar advances suppression efforts for invasive lake trout in a submontane lake

Expansion of an invasive Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush population in Swan Lake, Montana, threatens a core area population of Bull Trout S. confluentus . Given the recent development of novel suppression methods, such as use of carcass analog pellets to cause high mortality of embryos, there was a need to quantify spawning season aggregation sites, site use, and spawning habitat for Lake Trout in Swan Lake. Acoustic tags were implanted in 85 Lake Trout during the summer in 2018 and 2019. Nightly tracking efforts during autumn in both years resulted in 1,744 relocations for 49 individual Lake Trout. Kernel density analysis was used to evaluate Lake Trout aggregation sites, identifying 10 distinct sites. All spawning sites were located in the littoral zone along areas of steep bathymetric relief, and these sites composed 48% of total relocations during both spawning seasons. In 2019, side-scan sonar imaging was used to classify and quantify the total area of spawning substrate, which constituted 12.8% of the total surface area estimated for spawning sites 1, 6, and 9 and 11.4% of the total surface area for aggregation sites 2–5, 7, 8, and 10. Simultaneous treatment of all spawning sites would require 205,709 ± 86 kg of carcass analog pellet material, resulting in 370.4 ± 0.2 kg of phosphorus inputs and 7,487.9 ± 3.1 kg of nitrogen inputs to Swan Lake. Thus, pellet treatment would increase the Carlson's trophic state index (TSI) values from 20.8 to 27.7 for total phosphorus and from 22.1 to 26.2 for total nitrogen. Based on a TSI threshold of less than 40 for an oligotrophic lake, the use of carcass analog pellets could be feasible for supplementing the gill-netting suppression of Lake Trout in Swan Lake.

Montana↗

USGS2003

Data model and relational database design for the New Jersey Water-Transfer Data System (NJWaTr)

The New Jersey Water-Transfer Data System (NJWaTr) is a database design for the storage and retrieval of water-use data. NJWaTr can manage data encompassing many facets of water use, including (1) the tracking of various types of water-use activities (withdrawals, returns, transfers, distributions, consumptive-use, wastewater collection, and treatment); (2) the storage of descriptions, classifications and locations of places and organizations involved in water-use activities; (3) the storage of details about measured or estimated volumes of water associated with water-use activities; and (4) the storage of information about data sources and water resources associated with water use. In NJWaTr, each water transfer occurs unidirectionally between two site objects, and the sites and conveyances form a water network. The core entities in the NJWaTr model are site, conveyance, transfer/volume, location, and owner. Other important entities include water resource (used for withdrawals and returns), data source, permit, and alias. Multiple water-exchange estimates based on different methods or data sources can be stored for individual transfers. Storage of user-defined details is accommodated for several of the main entities. Many tables contain classification terms to facilitate the detailed description of data items and can be used for routine or custom data summarization. NJWaTr accommodates single-user and aggregate-user water-use data, can be used for large or small water-network projects, and is available as a stand-alone Microsoft? Access database. Data stored in the NJWaTr structure can be retrieved in user-defined combinations to serve visualization and analytical applications. Users can customize and extend the database, link it to other databases, or implement the design in other relational database applications.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

An agent-based model to quantify energetics, movement and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The dynamics of wintering waterfowl populations at the landscape scale are the result of complex interactions of environmental, behavioral and energetic drivers. Agent-based models provide a method to directly link these factors in a spatially explicit framework and allow the emergence of patterns from the aggregation of individual agent actions. We adapted the Spatially-explicit Waterbird Agent-based Model Program (SWAMP), originally developed for waterfowl in central California, to simulate a basin-scale population of mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley over a four-month period (November–February). Simulated agents move within the landscape, foraging on areas made available based on a probabilistic inundation status, and converting food resources to endogenous energy. The model uses a high-resolution map of eastern Arkansas waterfowl habitats and incorporates a hierarchical habitat selection system that enables mallards to relocate at increasing scales in response to changing food availability. We validated the performance of modeled mallard body condition and behavioral metrics under a range of environmental conditions against expected outcomes derived from empirical data and found that the simulation produced realistic representations of changes in flight distances, energy expenditure, lipid storage, and foraging habitat use in response to depleting food resources over time. We discuss the model's applicability as a tool to quantify waterfowl response to a range of environmental conditions and to evaluate scenarios of landscape composition and configuration in the context of waterfowl population management.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2015

Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk ( Cervus elaphus canadensis ) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus , the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the cause of death, or in this case whether the reproductive event was an abortion or live birth. Accounting for uncertainty in the event type is an important future addition to our methodological approach.

Wyoming↗