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Characterization of the hydrologic resources of San Miguel County, New Mexico, and identification of hydrologic data gaps, 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with San Miguel County, New Mexico, conducted a study to assess publicly available information regarding the hydrologic resources of San Miguel County and to identify data gaps in that information and hydrologic information that could aid in the management of available water resources. The USGS operates four continuous annual streamgages in San Miguel County. Monthly discharge at these streamgages is generally bimodally distributed, with most runoff corresponding to spring runoff and to summer monsoonal rains. Data compiled since 1951 on the geology and groundwater resources of San Miguel County are generally consistent with the original characterization of depth and availability of groundwater resources and of source aquifers. Subsequent exploratory drilling identified deep available groundwater in some locations. Most current (2011) development of groundwater resources is in western San Miguel County, particularly in the vicinity of El Creston hogback, the hogback ridge just west of Las Vegas, where USGS groundwater-monitoring wells indicate that groundwater levels are declining. Regarding future studies to address identified data gaps, the ability to evaluate and quantify surface-water resources, both as runoff and as potential groundwater recharge, could be enhanced by expanding the network of streamgages and groundwater-monitoring wells throughout the county. A series of seepage surveys along the lengths of the rivers could help to determine locations of surface-water losses to and gains from the local groundwater system and could help to quantify the component of streamflow attributable to irrigation return flow; associated synoptic water-quality sampling could help to identify potential effects to water quality attributable to irrigation return flow. Effects of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow could be assessed by constructing monitoring wells along transects between production wells and stream reaches of interest to monitor decline or recovery of the water table, to quantify the timing and extent of water-table response, and to identify the spatial extent of capture zones. Assessment of groundwater potential could be aided by a county-wide distribution of water-level information and by a series of maps of groundwater potential, compiled for each individual aquifer, including saline aquifers, for which the potential for municipal use through desalination could be explored. A county-wide geographic information system hydrologic geodatabase could provide a comprehensive picture of water use in San Miguel County and could be used by San Miguel County as a decision-support tool for future management decisions.

New Mexico

Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089 and accompanying data releases are the products of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA). The assessment was done at the request of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of some 10 million acres of Federal and adjacent lands in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. The need for this assessment arose from the decision by the Secretary of the Interior to pursue the protection of large tracts of contiguous habitat for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Western United States. One component of the Department of the Interior plan to protect the habitat areas includes withdrawing selected lands from future exploration and development of mineral and energy resources, including copper, gold, silver, rare earth elements, and other commodities used in the U.S. economy. The assessment evaluates the potential for locatable minerals such as gold, copper, and lithium and describes the nature and occurrence of leaseable and salable minerals for seven Sagebrush Focal Areas and additional lands in Nevada (“Nevada additions”) delineated by BLM. Supporting data are available in a series of USGS data releases describing mineral occurrences (the USGS Mineral Deposit Database or “USMIN”), oil and gas production and well status, previous mineral-resource assessments that covered parts of the areas studied, and a compilation of mineral-use cases based on data provided by BLM, as well as results of the locatable mineral-resource assessment in a geographic information system. The present assessment of mineral-resource potential will contribute to a better understanding of the economic and environmental trade-offs that would result from closing approximately 1 0 million acres of Federal lands to mineral entry.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Executive summary

Executive Summary The Williston Basin, which includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States and parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada, has been explored as a potential source of energy resources since the early 20th century; however, commercially viable petroleum drilling and recovery began in earnest in the 1950s. When oil prices rose in the mid-1980s, the number of wells also increased and then subsequently declined. Interest in the Williston Basin increased again in the mid-2000s with the application of new drilling technology. Since then, development has increased rather quickly. Most of this new development has been facilitated by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies. The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported an increase of more than 10,000 producing wells between 2000 and the spring of 2016. In total, 84 percent of those 10,000 wells target the Bakken Formation, which is now home to one of the Nation’s largest energy booms. Current estimates suggest that exploration and drilling activities are expected to continue for the next 20 to 50 years; however, future activity will likely ebb and flow in response to energy prices. Although most energy has been developed on non-Federal property, more than 2,000 wells were started on federally managed lands in the three States that contain the Williston Basin between 2004 and 2015, though these numbers do not reflect whether or not these wells targeted the Bakken Formation. Executive Order no. 13604 (March 22, 2012) directs Federal agencies to improve the timeliness of the permitting process for extracting publically owned minerals, while minimizing negative environmental effects. This means that Federal agencies need information about how energy development may affect other resources they are tasked with managing. One example of where information about potential effects of development may be useful is the Bureau of Land Management’s permitting process. Permits may include stipulations or special conditions that limit unforeseen negative consequences or ameliorate potential conflicts of future development. Federal agencies also need to coordinate permitting actions to ensure that development complies with existing regulations (for example, the Endangered Species Act [16 U.S.C. § 1531 et seq.] or the National Environmental Protection Act [42 U.S.C. § 4321 et seq.]) without unnecessarily restricting or delaying development. Part of this coordination entails agreeing on the information that will be used to assess the potential effects of energy development, which should also improve efficiency of the permitting process. Within the Williston Basin, a group of Federal agencies called the Bakken Federal Executive Group is developing coordination strategies for numerous energy-related issues on Federal lands. This report was developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management to provide them with the best available scientific information to support documentation of potential effects on resources that Federal agencies manage. This report summarizes information about the effects of energy development on air, water, and biological resources within the U.S. part of the Williston Basin. The topics discussed in the report were based on a prioritized list of information needs elicited from the Bakken Federal Executive Group. The list was developed using a process known as structured decision making or decision analysis. This process began with an initial scoping workshop to determine the range of decisions made by those involved directly in managing energy development and resources on public land. U.S. Geological Survey staff then developed a simple quantitative ranking tool to assess which information needs were of greatest importance to those decisions.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Status of water quality in groundwater resources used for drinking-water supply in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley, 2013–15—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

The California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP) investigated water quality of groundwater resources used for drinking-water supplies in the Madera-Chowchilla, Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Tulare Lake groundwater subbasins of the southeastern San Joaquin Valley during 2013–15. The study focused primarily on groundwater resources used for domestic-supply wells in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley (SESJV-D), which correspond mostly to shallower parts of aquifer systems, compared to the groundwater resources used for public-supply wells in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley (SESJV-P). The investigation had three components: (1) characterization of the status of water quality in the SESJV-D, (2) comparison between water quality in the SESJV-D and SESJV-P, and (3) identification of natural and anthropogenic factors that potentially could affect water quality in these resources. The characterization of water quality in the SESJV-D was based on data collected from 198 domestic wells sampled during 2013–15 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); characterization of water quality in the SESJV-P was based on data collected from 124 wells sampled by the USGS during 2005–18 and an additional 1,577 wells with publicly available data reported to the California State Water Resources Control Board Division of Drinking Water (SWRCB-DDW). Measured concentrations were compared to regulatory and non-regulatory drinking-water quality benchmarks. A grid-based method was used to estimate the areal proportions of each study area and the whole southeastern San Joaquin Valley with high (greater than benchmark concentration), moderate (greater than half of the benchmark for inorganic and one-tenth of the benchmark for organic), and low concentrations relative to those benchmarks. Natural and anthropogenic factors that could affect groundwater quality for the SESJV-D were identified in the context of the hydrogeologic setting of the southeastern San Joaquin Valley. The considered factors represented hydrologic conditions and position in the groundwater flow system (well depth, lateral position, presence of hydric soils, percentage of coarse-grained sediment, and aridity index), land-use characteristics (percentages of agricultural, urban, and natural land use, percentage of orchard or vineyard land use, and densities of septic tanks and underground storage tanks near the wells), and geochemical conditions (groundwater age class, oxidation-reduction class, pH, and dissolved oxygen and bicarbonate concentrations). Factors are compared between SESJV-D and SESJV-P at the scale of the five study areas. One or more inorganic constituents with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or California maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) were detected at high concentrations in 47 percent of the SESJV-D and in 32 percent of the SESJV-P. The inorganic constituents most commonly present at high concentrations in the SESJV-D were nitrate, uranium, and arsenic. Within the SESJV-D, the proportion of the study area with high concentrations of inorganic constituents ranged from 19 percent in Madera-Chowchilla to 60 percent in Kings and Tulare Lake. One or more inorganic constituents with California State Water Resources Control Board Division of Drinking Water secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCL-CAs) were detected at high concentrations in 14 percent of the SESJV-D and in 19 percent of the SESJV-P. The constituents most commonly present at high concentrations were manganese, iron, and total dissolved solids (TDS). Although the proportion of SESJV-D and SESJV-P with high concentrations of TDS greater than the upper SMCL were similar at 4 percent, the proportion of the SESJV-D with moderate concentrations (between the recommended and upper SMCL-CA), 30 percent, was greater than the proportion of the SESJV-P with moderate concentrations, 12 percent. One or more organic constituents with MCLs were present at high concentrations in 19 percent of the SESJV-D and in 12 percent of the SESJV-P. All the constituents detected at high concentrations in the SESJV-D were fumigants, primarily 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP) and 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP). Fumigants also were the constituents most commonly detected at high concentrations in the SESJV-P, although high concentrations of solvents also were detected. The SESJV-D dataset included analysis of many organic constituents without MCL benchmarks and with detection levels far below drinking water benchmark concentrations; detections at these low concentrations can be used as tracers of anthropogenic influence on groundwater. Pesticides and degradates of pesticides were detected in 60 percent of the SESJV-D; the most frequently detected pesticides were the herbicides simazine, didealkylatrazine (CAAT, a degradate of simazine and atrazine), diuron, and bromacil.

California

Effect of mineral deposit data on predictions from the three-part approach to quantitative mineral resource assessment—A study of 16 previous U.S. Geological Survey assessments

The three-part approach to quantitative mineral resource assessment requires information about the properties of undiscovered mineral deposits in an assessment area. These properties are unknown, so the properties of discovered mineral deposits of the same mineral deposit type are used instead. In the three-part approach, these discovered mineral deposits come from around the world, and their properties constitute the pooled data for that mineral deposit type. Alternatively, these discovered mineral deposits could come from the assessment area, and their properties constitute the tract data for that mineral deposit type. Tract data may be more representative of the undiscovered mineral deposits in the assessment area than the pooled data. The goal of this study was to determine whether resource predictions using pooled data are equivalent to resource predictions using tract data. To this end, 16 previous U.S Geological Survey assessments were studied. For each assessment, resources were predicted for one undiscovered mineral deposit in the assessment area. One set of predictions used pooled data, and another used tract data. The two sets of predictions were compared with an equivalence test, using the six assessment statistics that are commonly reported for mineral resource assessments. Practical equivalence is the condition that two corresponding assessment statistics are within a factor of 1.5 of one another. For each of 2 assessments, all 6 assessment statistics were practically equivalent. For both assessments, the assessment statistics from the pooled data, relative to the corresponding assessment statistics from the tract data, ranged from 1.30 times smaller to 1.03 times larger. For each of 14 assessments, 1 or more of the 6 assessment statistics were not practically equivalent. The assessment statistics from the pooled data, relative to the corresponding assessment statistics from the tract data, ranged from 26.6 times smaller to 5.53 times larger. The use of pooled data has been a standard procedure in the three-part approach since at least 1986. The 16 assessments in this study are not a representative sample of those prior assessments that used pooled data. So, it is inappropriate to use the study results to infer whether pooled data affected the resource predictions for those prior assessments.

Scientific Investigations Report

Probabilistic methodology for the assessment of original and recoverable coal resources, illustrated with an application to a coal bed in the Fort Union Formation, Wyoming

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been using its Circular 891 for evaluating uncertainty in coal resource assessments for more than 35 years. Calculated cell tonnages are assigned to four qualitative reliability classes depending exclusively on distance to the nearest drill hole. The main appeal of this methodology, simplicity, is also its main drawback. Reliability may depend so marginally on distance to the nearest drill hole that, over time, it has become evident that Circular 891 is inadequate for modeling reliability and is limited by other shortcomings. The present publication describes the use of geostatistics as an approach allowing a more satisfactory performance than that which is achieved following Circular 891. Geostatistics takes advantage of partly random and partly organized fluctuations in attributes such as coal thickness, coal density, and elevation of the top of a coal bed, borrowing concepts and tools that have been standard features in statistics and risk analysis for decades. Considering that readers interested in this study may not have the background to go directly into the details of the methodology, we start by explaining geostatistical concepts and modeling techniques. The remainder of the publication is devoted to formulating the assessment methodology, applying it to data from the Fillmore Ranch coal bed in the Fort Union Formation in Wyoming, and explaining the computer software applied for performing calculations and displays. The assessment methodology has been designed to report three different forms of resources: coal in place, coal mineable by surface mining methods, and coal mineable by underground mining methods. These three types of resources are reported graphically by displaying both the magnitude and the reliability of total coal resources and resources at the cell scale. In the case of the Fillmore Ranch coal bed example, there is a 90-percent probability that the resources in place are 9.687 ± 0.383 billion short tons (bst), while the coal available for underground mining is 2.279 ± 0.160 bst, and that available for surface mining is only 0.240 ± 0.025 bst because of the steep dip to the west away from the outcrop. These magnitudes are derived from numerical probability distributions not following any specific form.

Wyoming

Water resources data, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, water year 2004

The Caribbean Water Science Center of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with local and Federal agencies obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands each water year. These data, accumulated during many water years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the area. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the U.S. Geological Survey, the data are published annually in this report series entitled 'Water Resources Data for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.' This report includes records on both surface and ground water. Specifically, it contains: (1) discharge records for 89 streamflow-gaging stations, daily sediment records for 13 sediment stations, stage records for 18 reservoirs, and (2) water-quality records for 20 streamflow-gaging stations, and for 38 ungaged stream sites, 13 lake sites, 2 lagoons, and 1 bay, and (3) water-level records for 72 observation wells. Water-resources data for Puerto Rico for calendar years 1958-67 were released in a series of reports entitled 'Water Records of Puerto Rico.' Water-resources data for the U.S. Virgin Islands for the calendar years 1962-69 were released in a report entitled 'Water Records of U.S. Virgin Islands.' Included were records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and water-quality data for both surface and ground water. Beginning with the 1968 calendar year, surface-water records for Puerto Rico were released separately on an annual basis. Ground-water level records and water-quality data for surface and ground water were released in companion reports covering periods of several years. Data for the 1973-74 reports were published under separate covers. Water-resources data reports for 1975 to 2003 water years consist of one volume each and contain data for streamflow, water quality, and ground water.

Water Data Report

Tungsten skarn quantitative mineral resource assessment and gold, rare earth elements, graphite, and uranium qualitative assessments of the Kuldjuktau and Auminzatau Ranges, in the central Kyzylkum region, Uzbekistan

A new quantitative mineral resource assessment for tungsten skarn was conducted for the Auminzatau and Kuldjuktau mountain ranges in Central Uzbekistan, along with qualitative assessments of orogenic gold, rare earth elements (REEs), amorphous graphite, and uranium. By integrating a variety of geological, geochemical, geophysical, and remote sensing data sets, estimates of undiscovered tungsten skarn deposits in permissive tracts are combined with grade and tonnage distributions of known deposits to generate probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Undiscovered deposits in Auminzatau are estimated to contain median resources of 98 thousand metric tons (kt) of WO 3 with a 70 percent (%) probability of at least 28 kt and a 10% probability of at least 468 kt, of which 16 kt to 293 kt may be economic to extract. In Kuldjuktau, the undiscovered deposits are estimated to contain median resources of 27 kt of WO 3 with a 60% probability of at least 12 kt and a 10% probability of at least 208 kt, of which 5 kt to 132 kt may be economic to extract. Our results suggest that the Auminzatau–Kuldjuktau Mountains area is highly prospective for additional discovery of significant Au and U resources and has low prospectivity for discovery of significant REE and graphite resources.

Minerals

Gas hydrate resources of northern Alaska

Large amounts of natural gas, composed mainly of methane, can occur in arctic sedimentary basins in the form of gas hydrates under appropriate temperature and pressure conditions. Gas hydrates are solids, composed of rigid cages of water molecules that trap molecules of gas. These substances are regarded as a potential unconventional source of natural gas because of their enormous gas-storage capacity. Most published gas hydrate resource estimates are highly simplified and based on limited geological data. The gas hydrate resource assessment for northern Alaska presented in this paper is based on a "play analysis" scheme, in which geological factors controlling the accumulation and preservation of gas hydrates are individually evaluated and risked for each hydrate play. This resource assessment identified two gas hydrate plays; the in-place gas resources within the gas hydrates of northern Alaska are estimated to range from 6.7 to 66.8 trillion cubic metres of gas (236 to 2,357 trillion cubic feet of gas), at the 0.50 and 0.05 probability levels respectively. The mean in-place hydrate resource estimate for northern Alaska is calculated to be 16.7 trillion cubic metres of gas (590 trillion cubic feet of gas). If this assessment is valid, the amount of natural gas stored as gas hydrates in northern Alaska could be almost seven times larger then the estimated total remaining recoverable conventional natural gas resources in the entire United States.

Alaska

Current perspectives in contaminant hydrology and water resources sustainability

Human society depends on liquid freshwater resources to meet drinking, sanitation and hygiene, agriculture, and industry needs. Improved resource monitoring and better understanding of the anthropogenic threats to freshwater environments are critical to efficient management of freshwater resources and ultimately to the survival and quality of life of the global human population. This book helps address the need for improved freshwater resource monitoring and threat assessment by presenting current reviews and case studies focused on the fate and transport of contaminants in the environment and on the sustainability of groundwater and surface-water resources around the world. It is intended for students and professionals working in hydrology and water resources management.

Book

Kansas coal distribution, resources, and potential for coalbed methane

100 ft (>30 m)] determined from 32 different coal beds. Strippable coal resources at a depth < 100 ft (<30 m) total 2.8 billion tons (2.6 billion MT), and this total is determined from 17 coals. Coal beds present in the Cherokee Group (Middle Pennsylvanian) represent most of these coal resource totals. Deep coal beds with the largest resource totals include the Bevier, Mineral, \"Aw\" (unnamed coal bed), Riverton, and Weir-Pittsburg coals, all within the Cherokee Group. Based on chemical analyses, coals in the southeastern part of the state are generally high volatile A bituminous, whereas coals in the east-central and northeastern part of the state are high-volatile B bituminous coals. The primary concern of coal beds in Kansas for deep mining or development of coalbed methane is the thin nature [<2 ft (0.6 m)] of most coal beds. Present production of coalbed methane is centered mainly in the southern Wilson/northern Montgomery County area of southeastern Kansas where methane is produced from the Mulky, Weir-Pittsburg, and Riverton coals."}" data-sheets-userformat="{"2":8403202,"4":[null,2,16777215],"11":4,"14":[null,2,0],"15":"Inconsolata, monospace, arial, sans, sans-serif","16":11,"26":400}" data-sheets-formula="=VLOOKUP(R[0]C[-5],Fixed!R2C[-6]:C[-4],3,false)">Kansas has large amounts of bituminous coal both at the surface and in the subsurface of eastern Kansas. Preliminary studies indicate at least 53 billion tons (48 billion MT) of deep coal [>100 ft (>30 m)] determined from 32 different coal beds. Strippable coal resources at a depth < 100 ft (<30 m) total 2.8 billion tons (2.6 billion MT), and this total is determined from 17 coals. Coal beds present in the Cherokee Group (Middle Pennsylvanian) represent most of these coal resource totals. Deep coal beds with the largest resource totals include the Bevier, Mineral, "Aw" (unnamed coal bed), Riverton, and Weir-Pittsburg coals, all within the Cherokee Group. Based on chemical analyses, coals in the southeastern part of the state are generally high volatile A bituminous, whereas coals in the east-central and northeastern part of the state are high-volatile B bituminous coals. The primary concern of coal beds in Kansas for deep mining or development of coalbed methane is the thin nature [<2 ft (0.6 m)] of most coal beds. Present production of coalbed methane is centered mainly in the southern Wilson/northern Montgomery County area of southeastern Kansas where methane is produced from the Mulky, Weir-Pittsburg, and Riverton coals.

Kansas

Geothermal systems of the Great Basin and U.S. Geological Survey plans for a regional resource assessment

Based on current projections, the United States faces the need to increase its electrical power generating capacity by 40% (approximately 300,000 Megawatts-electrical or MWe) over the next 20 years (Energy Information Administration, EIA - Department of Energy). A critical question for the near future is the extent to which geothermal resources can contribute to this increasing demand for electricity. Geothermal energy constitutes one of the nation's largest sources of renewable and environmentally benign electrical power, yet the installed capacity of 2860 MWe falls far short of estimated geothermal resources. This is particularly true for the Great Basin region of the western United States, which has an installed capacity of about 500 MWe, much lower than the 7500 MWe resource estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the late 1970s. The reasons for the limited development of geothermal power are varied, but political, economic and technological developments suggest the time is ripe for a new assessment effort. Technologies for power production from geothermal systems and scientific understanding of geothermal resource occurrence have improved dramatically in recent years. The primary challenges facing geothermal resource studies are (1) understanding the thermal, chemical and mechanical processes that lead to the colocation of high temperatures and high permeabilities necessary for the formation of geothermal systems and (2) developing improved techniques for locating, characterizing and exploiting these systems. Starting in the fall of 2002, the USGS will begin work with institutions funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Research Program to investigate the nature and extent of geothermal systems in the Great Basin and to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources.

Conference Paper

Evaluation of thematic mapper data for natural resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey EROS Data Center evaluated the utility of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) date for natural resource assessment, emphasizing manual interpretation and digital classification of the data for U.S. Department of the Interior applications. Substantially more information was derived from TM data than from Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data. Greater resolution of TM data aided in locating roads, small stock ponds, and many other land features that could be used as landmarks. The improved spatial resolution of TM data also permitted more efficient visual interpretations of land use, better identification of resource types, and improved assessment of ecological status of natural vegetation. TM data also provided a new source of spectral information that was useful for natural resource assessment. New mid-infrared spectral bands, TM band 5 and band 7, aided in distinguishing water resources, wetland vegetation resources, and other important terrain features. The added information was useful for both manual interpretation and digital data classification of vegetation resources and land features. Results from the analyses of both TM and TM simulator (TMS) spectral data suggest that the coefficient of variation for major land cover types is generally less for TM data than for MSS data taken from the same area. This reduction in variance should contribute to an improved multispectral analysis, contributing new information about vegetation in natural ecosystems. Although the amount of new information in TM bands 5 and 7 is mall, it is unique in that the same information cannot be derived from four-band Landsat MSS spectral data.

Conference Paper

Recreational impacts to wildlife: Managing visitors and resources to protect wildlife

Publication Abstract: Visitor use management is essential for maximizing benefits for visitors while achieving and maintaining desired resource conditions and visitor experiences on federally managed lands and waters. Visitor capacity, a component of visitor use management, is defined as the maximum amounts and types of visitor use that an area can accommodate while achieving and maintaining the desired resource conditions and visitor experiences that are consistent with the purposes for which the area was established. This visitor capacity guidebook, in combination with the “Visitor Use Management Framework” (the framework), provides managers with processes to collaboratively develop long-term strategies to manage the amounts and types of visitor use to protect resources, improve access, connect visitors to key experiences, and achieve desired conditions. The purpose of this guidebook is to provide cohesive guidance on identifying and implementing visitor capacity on federally managed lands and waters. Similar to the framework, the sliding scale of analysis is discussed throughout this guidebook to ensure the investment of time, money, and other resources for a project is commensurate with the complexity of the project and the consequences of the decision. Overall, this guidebook is meant to expand on the framework and guide a professional and consistent approach to identifying and implementing visitor capacity. Paper Abstract: Most protected natural areas, including parks, forests, and wildlife refuges, are managed under a dual mandate to preserve predominantly natural settings and processes while also accommodating recreational visitation. Visitor activities can have deleterious impacts to protected area vegetation, soil, water, wildlife, and cultural resources. The term impact denotes undesirable visitor-related effects to natural resources and/or wildlife. This paper reviews the management of recreation impacts to wildlife, including discussions of influential factors, impact indicators, and the range of management responses. This information is provided to assist recreation and land managers in avoiding or minimizing visitor impact to wildlife, particularly related to decision-making within the new Visitor Use Management (VUM) framework. Such decision-making requires a thorough understanding of the different types of wildlife impact and the use-related, environmental, and managerial factors that influence them.

Report

Hidden system identification: Basin modeling as a tool for examining sedimentary geothermal resource potential

Three-dimensional (3D) geologic and temperature models have been developed for the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast. The results from these models identify areas of moderate- to high-temperature (90°-150°C and >150°C; respectively) geothermal resources at depths <6 km. This modeling study addresses the fundamental challenge of predicting where opportune temperature and lithology coincide. Unlike traditional geothermal systems with surface expressions of hydrothermal circulation (e.g., hot springs, fumaroles, sinter), sedimentary geothermal systems (SGS) are generally hidden. Historically, simplified efforts to predict subsurface temperatures in sedimentary basins have focused on linear temperature extrapolation that does not consider the variable thermal properties of different lithologies or lithologic changes with depth (e.g., compaction, lithification). Therefore, the need to understand basin architecture and predict temperatures in 3D within SGS is paramount to identifying geothermal resources and determining economic feasibility. Basin modeling software has long been used to characterize the subsurface conditions of sedimentary basins, including temperature, in the pursuit of finding hydrocarbons. This tool can also be adapted to evaluate the potential of geothermal resources in a sedimentary basin by predicting the confluence of desirable temperatures and reservoir lithologies. In this work, PetroMod basin modeling software was used to create a regional geologic model of the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast, covering over 500,000 km 2 calibrated to temperature data from wells. Inputs include structural surfaces from commercial databases, lithology information derived from published literature, and corrected bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) from over 6,000 wells. The resulting 3D geologic model can be used to predict temperatures throughout the basin. Maps were exported showing the depth, depositional unit, and reservoir lithology at which temperatures of 90°C and 150°C were reached, revealing over 400,000 km 2 of moderate- to high-temperature resources at depths <6 km. These maps function as a first-order screening tool to identify areas where low-, moderate-, or high-grade resource potential may exist, based on temperature and if optimal reservoir lithologies or depositional units of interest are present. Depending on the success criteria of a project, the same maps can be exported for any isotherm or incorporate other 1407 Gardner and Birdwell subsurface properties. The methodology employed in this work can be applied in any sedimentary basin with available subsurface data. Further calibration incorporating other data, including pressure and porosity, can expand the utility of basin modeling for geothermal evaluations. Basin modeling is a powerful but underutilized tool for identifying prospective geothermal resources in sedimentary basins.

Conference Paper

Cost implications of uncertainty in CO 2 storage resource estimates: A review

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO 2 storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO 2 , consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO 2 storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO 2 injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO 2 storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO 2 storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO 2 storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the scarcity of (data from) long-term commercial-scale CO 2 storage projects, decision makers may experience considerable difficulty in ascertaining the realistic potential, the likely costs, and the most beneficial pattern of deployment of CCS as an option to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

Natural Resources Research

Reconnaissance survey for potential energy storage and carbon dioxide storage resources of petroleum reservoirs in western Europe

Energy producers and utilities use oil and gas reservoirs for gas storage to meet peak seasonal demand or to supplement intermittent energy production. These reservoirs are also suitable for the long-term storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), a greenhouse gas. This study reports on a reconnaissance analysis of the potential magnitude of storage resources in 9424 known oil and gas reservoirs from 24 countries within highly industrialized western Europe. To standardize the storage resources of the oil and gas reservoirs, their volumetric capacity is expressed in terms of metric tons (mass) of CO 2 . Estimates of recoverable oil and gas at the surface are converted to subsurface volumes and then converted to the equivalent mass of CO 2 at reservoir conditions. The results indicate 36.7 gigatons of CO 2 could be stored, with oil reservoirs accounting for 32% of that total and natural gas reservoirs comprising the remaining 68%. About four-fifths of the reservoir storage resource is offshore, with about three-fourths of that offshore resource at water depths of 200 m or less. Most countries do not have the reservoir storage resources to store 15 years of CO 2 at 2017 emission levels. With few exceptions the bulk of the storage is offshore for countries that do have at least 15 years of storage. The expansion of natural gas storage for strategic purposes in abandoned onshore gas reservoirs is not expected to seriously impact CO 2 storage. The contribution of this analysis is the description of the spatial distribution of potential storage and physical accessibility.

Natural Resources Research

Integrated water resources trend assessments: State of the science, challenges, and opportunities for advancement

Water is vital to human life and healthy ecosystems. Here we outline the current state of national-scale water resources trend assessments, identify key gaps, and suggest advancements to better address critical issues related to changes in water resources that may threaten human development or the environment. Questions like, “Do we have less suitable drinking water now than we had 20 years ago?” or “Are flood events more common now than they were in the past?” prompted improvements in data, trend estimation methods, and modeling frameworks to track changes in, and better understand how land use and climate influence four water resources domains: surface and groundwater quantity and quality. However, continued advancement in trend assessments to better address issues related to changes in water availability is needed. Areas of need include more timely and efficient delivery of water resources trend results and improved capacity to estimate trends at unmonitored locations. Additional integration pieces include increased understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions, incorporation of both quantity and quality trends into water availability estimates, and the refinement of trend metrics to account for the competing needs of society and ecological integrity. Coupled with improved driver attribution studies, these components will better inform current and future water resources management.

Journal of the American Water Resource Association