SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Research Square”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

357 records · Page 20Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Fish and habitat assessment in Rock Creek, Klickitat County, southeastern Washington, 2018

Executive Summary Native steelhead (anadromous form of rainbow trout [ Oncorhynchus mykiss ]) and bridgelip sucker ( Catostomus columbianus ) were historically used by the Kah-miltpah (Rock Creek) Band for sustenance, trade, and traditional practices in Rock Creek, a tributary to the Columbia River in southeastern Washington State. Rock Creek flows south to the Columbia River at river kilometer (rkm) 368 and is an intermittent stream of great significance to the Yakama Nation and to the Kah-miltpah Band in particular. Concern over declines in the abundance of these fish in Rock Creek prompted a research and monitoring program to better understand habitat conditions, population status, and limiting factors. In addition to steelhead and bridgelip sucker, coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) and resident rainbow trout are also present and monitored. Rainbow trout and steelhead will be collectively referred to as O. mykiss . Streamflow is a limiting habitat factor in this system, but steelhead and coho salmon still successfully return to spawn, rear, outmigrate, and survive over summer in many of the isolated pools that provide important refuge for juvenile rearing. We completed a habitat survey during autumn 2018 to assess the perennial pools during low-flow conditions. In Rock Creek, the overall percentage of habitat recorded as dry was 41, non-pool wet was 42, and pool was 17. The number of pools ( n =93) recorded was less than during previous years’ survey efforts (2015–17). The percentage of non-pool wet habitat was generally higher in 2018 than in previous years. This is a likely result of habitat reaches, which in the past, were considered pools but have become shallower and smaller and are now categorized as non-pool wet habitat. However, the fewer habitat reaches categorized as pools in 2018 now have an average length, area, and depth that are generally greater than in past years. In Walaluuks Creek, the percentage of habitat recorded as dry was 53, non-pool wet was 40, and pool was 7. The percentage of pool habitat was the lowest of all years surveyed since 2015. Fish sampling occurred during autumn after habitat surveys were completed from October 1 to November 9. Fish species distribution, relative abundance, length-frequency distribution, and pool fish density were determined using backpack electrofishing in stratified, systematically selected pools. During fish sampling, 855 O. mykiss were handled and 662 were tagged with a passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag, and 718 coho salmon were handled and 567 were PIT tagged. A total of 536 bridgelip suckers and largescale suckers ( Catostomus macrocheilus [ n =6]) were handled and 294 were PIT tagged. In Rock Creek, pool abundance estimates were calculated for six pools for both O. mykiss age classes (age 0 and age 1 or older [age 1+]) and one additional pool for age 1+. For pools where age-0 O. mykiss were present, the average pool population abundance was 0.144 ( n =6; range: 0.052–0.208) fish per square meter. For age-1+ O. mykiss , the average pool population abundance was 0.045 ( n =7; range: 0.002–0.179) fish per square meter. For age-0 O. mykiss in Walaluuks Creek, the average pool abundance was 0.207 fish per square meter ( n =7; range: 0.038–0.416), and for age-1+ fish, the average pool abundance was 0.382 fish per square meter ( n =6; range: 0.009–0.761). In Rock Creek, coho salmon were more abundant than O. mykiss in pools except for three pools upstream from rkm 20. The average pool abundance for coho salmon was 0.256 fish per square meter ( n =8; range: 0.019–0.756) in Rock Creek pools. In Walaluuks Creek, coho salmon were captured in four pools and were not captured in the upstream pools sampled. The average pool abundance for coho salmon in the four lower pools was 0.488 fish per square meter ( n =4; range: 0.417–0.548). Bridgelip suckers were captured in all pools in Rock Creek except the pool sampled at rkm 21.8. The average pool abundance for bridgelip suckers was 0.552 fish per square meter ( n =7; range: 0.015–1.554) in Rock Creek. Bridgelip suckers were captured in three downstream pools in Walaluuks Creek, and the average abundance was 0.044 fish per square meter ( n =3; range: 0.024–0.085). Overwinter and reach survival probabilities were estimated for O. mykiss and coho salmon using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber modeling approach. The best fit survival model for the O. mykiss and coho salmon was a reach only model. The upstream reach includes overwinter survival probability because fish are tagged and released in autumn and primarily migrate the following spring. During 2018, coho salmon (0.568, standard error [SE]=0.027) had a significantly higher probability of overwinter survival than O. mykiss (0.276, SE=0.019). The reach survival probability was higher for O. mykiss than coho salmon in the downstream migratory reaches. Survival was not modeled for bridgelip suckers. For bridgelip suckers, 147 were detected of 294, that were PIT tagged and released in the Rock Creek subbasin (50.0 percent). Information provided in this report increases our understanding of the status and trends of these populations. It further documents how intermittent streams can support salmonid populations. It also provides insight into potential management and restoration actions that could be beneficial and timing and allocation of resources. Ongoing monitoring work of this population will inform progress towards Rock Creek species recovery goals and contribution to recovery goals for the steelhead Middle Columbia River Distinct Population Segment.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Trace element geochemistry (Li, Ba, Sr, and Rb) using Curiosity's ChemCam: early results for Gale crater from Bradbury Landing Site to Rocknest

The ChemCam instrument package on the Mars rover, Curiosity, provides new capabilities to probe the abundances of certain trace elements in the rocks and soils on Mars using the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy technique. We focus on detecting and quantifying Li, Ba, Rb, and Sr in targets analyzed during the first 100 sols, from Bradbury Landing Site to Rocknest. Univariate peak area models and multivariate partial least squares models are presented. Li, detected for the first time directly on Mars, is generally low (<15 ppm). The lack of soil enrichment in Li, which is highly fluid mobile, is consistent with limited influx of subsurface waters contributing to the upper soils. Localized enrichments of up to ~60 ppm Li have been observed in several rocks but the host mineral for Li is unclear. Bathurst_Inlet is a fine-grained bedrock unit in which several analysis locations show a decrease in Li and other alkalis with depth, which may imply that the unit has undergone low-level aqueous alteration that has preferentially drawn the alkalis to the surface. Ba (~1000 ppm) was detected in a buried pebble in the Akaitcho sand ripple and it appears to correlate with Si, Al, Na, and K, indicating a possible feldspathic composition. Rb and Sr are in the conglomerate Link at abundances >100 ppm and >1000 ppm, respectively. These analysis locations tend to have high Si and alkali abundances, consistent with a feldspar composition. Together, these trace element observations provide possible evidence of magma differentiation and aqueous alteration.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1977

Phytoplankton distribution and primary productivity in Donner Lake, California

Donner Lake is an unenriched system in the Lake Tahoe basin of the Sierra Nevada of California. The lake has a surface area of 1.5 square miles (3.9 square kilometres) and a drainage area of 14 mi 2 (36 km 2 ). The maximum depth is about 200 feet (60 metres). Between May and December 1973, the phytoplankton in Donner Lake was represented by 6 classes and at least 25 genera. The dominant green alga was the desmid Cosmarium staurastroides , which comprised about 25 percent of the total phytoplankton collected. The dominant diatom was Asterionella formosa , which comprised about 13 percent of the total phytoplankton. Blue-green algae were represented by Chroococcus sp., but were never abundant and constituted only 1.5 percent of the total organisms sampled. The depth of the euphotic zone from May through September ranged from 35 to 93 feet (11 to 28 metres). Thermal stratification was strong throughout the summer with a maximum temperature difference between the surface and bottom water of 17° Celsius in July. Average phytoplankton concentrations were often greater below the euphotic zone than in the euphotic zone. This pattern of phytoplankton distribution is similar to nearby Lake Tahoe and other oligotrophic lakes. Three primary productivity measurements were made during the study using the carbon-14 method. The primary productivity values were 93, 64, and 56 milligrams of carbon per cubic metre per day for May 17, August 13, and October 16, respectively. The productivity profile in May was shallow and unimodal, whereas the August and October profiles were deeper and biomodal. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were maximum at the same depths as maximum primary productivity. On the basis of phytoplankton types and their vertical distribution patterns, and upon primary productivity measurements, Donner Lake is considered oligotrophic.

California↗

USGS2019

3-D seismic tomographic study of Sinabung Volcano, Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, during the inter-eruptive period October 2010-July 2013

We estimated 3D P-wave velocity (Vp), S-wave velocity (Vs), and Vp/Vs tomographic structures in and around the Sinabung Volcano area, Northern Sumatra, Indonesia during the intereruptive period between October 2010 and July 2013 using high-quality P- and S-wave phases from > 600 local volcano tectonic (VT) earthquakes and more than 5000 phase picks. We used the iteritive damped-least-squares method of SIMULPS12 to simultaneously invert for the velocity structure and hypocenter relocations. We find that the majority of the VT earthquakes locate beneath Sinabung volcano to depths of about 8 km, with distal hypocenters dominantly to the north and northwest of the summit. We find six anomalous regions with the most notable including an area of low seismicity, high Vp/Vs and low Vp at depths of around 5 km slightly south of the summit. We believe this anomaly most likely represents hot material with some partial melt that may be the source for the 2010 phreatic eruptions and continued unrest throughout the study period. We also find a region below the summit with high seismicity, high Vp, high Vs and low Vp/Vs that we believe likely represents old intrusive material that has been fractured by the processes of the 2010 phreatic eruptions. Other shallow anomalous values of Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs are consistent with the known geology of Sinabung: anomalies of high Vp and Vs likely represent old, well-consolidated rock, and are observed to the SW and NE of Sinabung; while low Vp, low Vs and high Vp/Vs likely represent increased fracture densities, temperatures, or gas contents in geothermal features to the west of the summit. Finally we compare our results to those of the tomographic study during the October to November 2013 eruptive period in Nugraha et al. (this issue) and find evidence that suggests magma rose from the lower region imaged in our study to within a few kilometers of the surface.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2015

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for small (20 square miles or less) drainage basins in Iowa. With the publication of new multi- and single-variable RREs by the U.S. Geological Survey (published in 2013), the Iowa Department of Transportation needs to determine which methods of AEPD estimation provide the best accuracy and the least bias for small drainage basins in Iowa. Twenty five streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 square miles (mi 2 ) and 55 streamgages with drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi 2 were selected for the comparisons that used two evaluation metrics. Estimates of AEPDs calculated for the streamgages using the expected moments algorithm/multiple Grubbs-Beck test analysis method were compared to estimates of AEPDs calculated from the 2013 multivariable RREs; the 2013 single-variable RREs; the 1987 single-variable RREs; the TR-55 rainfall-runoff model; and the Iowa Runoff Chart. For the 25 streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 mi 2 , results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the TR-55 method for flood regions 1 and 3 (published in 2013) and by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For drainage basins with areas between 2 and 20 mi 2 , results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for the Southern Iowa Drift Plain landform region and for flood region 3 (published in 2013), by using the 2013 multivariable RREs for the Iowan Surface landform region, and by using the 2013 or 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For all other landform or flood regions in Iowa, use of the 2013 single-variable RREs may provide the best overall accuracy and the least bias. An examination was conducted to understand why the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias than either of the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs. A comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance-probability regression lines for hydrologic regions 1-4 from the 1987 single-variable RREs and for flood regions 1-3 from the 2013 single-variable RREs indicates that the 1987 single-variable regional-regression lines generally have steeper slopes and lower discharges when compared to 2013 single-variable regional-regression lines for corresponding areas of Iowa. The combination of the definition of hydrologic regions, the lower discharges, and the steeper slopes of regression lines associated with the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias when compared to the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs; better accuracy and less bias was determined particularly for drainage areas less than 2 mi 2 , and also for some drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi 2 . The 2013 multi- and single-variable RREs are considered to provide better accuracy and less bias for larger drainage areas. Results of this study indicate that additional research is needed to address the curvilinear relation between drainage area and AEPDs for areas of Iowa.

Iowa↗

USGS2012

A tomographic glimpse of the upper mantle source of magmas of the Jemez lineament, New Mexico

The 800-km-long Jemez lineament is the most active volcanic feature in the southwestern United States. It is the southeastern tectonic boundary of the Colorado Plateau and crosses the Rio Grande rift at the Jemez Mountains. The primary volcanism of the lineament is basaltic and has occurred in the last 4.5 m.y. To infer spatial distributions of partial melt in the upper mantle source zones for the Rio Grande rift and the Jemez lineament, we investigated the lateral variations of P wave velocity in the upper mantle beneath these features. We used teleseismic P wave delays recorded at a 22-station network to perform a damped least squares, three-dimensional inversion for these lateral variations. Our technique employed velocity interpolation within a three-dimensional grid of points, rather than using blocks of constant P wave velocity. This method allows highly realistic computation of seismic ray paths as well as accurate computation of the matrix elements in our system of equations. Determinations of resolution of results were done in two independent ways, both of which gave consistent estimates of resolution. In our best resolved volume the inversion showed no significant concentration of relative low velocity for P waves beneath the Rio Grande rift. However, directly beneath the Jemez lineament there is a ∼100-km-wide, 1–2% low-velocity feature in the depth range of 50–160 km. Because of the association of the low P wave velocity with the Jemez volcanic lineament but not with the Rio Grande rift, because lowered P wave velocity can be associated with increased partial melt, and because the volume of recent volcanism at the lineament greatly exceeds that at the rift, we infer that a large magmatic source zone exists beneath the Jemez lineament but not beneath the Rio Grande rift. This implies that the volcanic potential of the Jemez lineaments continues to greatly exceed that of the Rio Grande rift. The mantle source zones for volcanics of the Jemez lineament are not overridden by, but rather track, the motion of the North American plate; this implies that these sources are within the lithospheric plate, as is clarified in the discussion. The magmatic source zones of the Jemez lineament are modeled as due to clockwise rotation of the Colorado Plateau about a pole in northeastern Colorado. This rotation caused extension of the lithosphere beneath the Jemez lineament, permitting concentration there of partially melted rock in the upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2017

Suitability of river delta sediment as proppant, Missouri and Niobrara Rivers, Nebraska and South Dakota, 2015

Sediment management is a challenge faced by reservoir managers who have several potential options, including dredging, for mitigation of storage capacity lost to sedimentation. As sediment is removed from reservoir storage, potential use of the sediment for socioeconomic or ecological benefit could potentially defray some costs of its removal. Rivers that transport a sandy sediment load will deposit the sand load along a reservoir-headwaters reach where the current of the river slackens progressively as its bed approaches and then descends below the reservoir water level. Given a rare combination of factors, a reservoir deposit of alluvial sand has potential to be suitable for use as proppant for hydraulic fracturing in unconventional oil and gas development. In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey began a program of researching potential sources of proppant sand from reservoirs, with an initial focus on the Missouri River subbasins that receive sand loads from the Nebraska Sand Hills. This report documents the methods and results of assessments of the suitability of river delta sediment as proppant for a pilot study area in the delta headwaters of Lewis and Clark Lake, Nebraska and South Dakota. Results from surface-geophysical surveys of electrical resistivity guided borings to collect 3.7-meter long cores at 25 sites on delta sandbars using the direct-push method to recover duplicate, 3.8-centimeter-diameter cores in April 2015. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples of upstream sand sources in the lower Niobrara River valley. At the laboratory, samples were dried, weighed, washed, dried, and weighed again. Exploratory analysis of natural sand for determining its suitability as a proppant involved application of a modified subset of the standard protocols known as American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 19C. The RP19C methods were not intended for exploration-stage evaluation of raw materials. Results for the washed samples are not directly applicable to evaluations of suitability for use as fracture sand because, except for particle-size distribution, the API-recommended practices for assessing proppant properties (sphericity, roundness, bulk density, and crush resistance) require testing of specific proppant size classes. An optical imaging particle-size analyzer was used to make measurements of particle-size distribution and particle shape. Measured samples were sieved to separate the dominant-size fraction, and the separated subsample was further tested for roundness, sphericity, bulk density, and crush resistance. For the bulk washed samples collected from the Missouri River delta, the geometric mean size averaged 0.27 millimeters (mm), 80 percent of the samples were predominantly sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 17 percent were predominantly sand in the API 70/140 size class. Distributions of geometric mean size among the four sandbar complexes were similar, but samples collected from sandbar complex B were slightly coarser sand than those from the other three complexes. The average geometric mean sizes among the four sandbar complexes ranged only from 0.26 to 0.30 mm. For 22 main-stem sampling locations along the lower Niobrara River, geometric mean size averaged 0.26 mm, an average of 61 percent was sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 28 percent was sand in the API 70/140 size class. Average composition for lower Niobrara River samples was 48 percent medium sand, 37 percent fine sand, and about 7 percent each very fine sand and coarse sand fractions. On average, samples were moderately well sorted. Particle shape and strength were assessed for the dominant-size class of each sample. For proppant strength, crush resistance was tested at a predetermined level of stress (34.5 megapascals [MPa], or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch). To meet the API minimum requirement for proppant, after the crush test not more than 10 percent of the tested sample should be finer than the precrush dominant-size class. For particle shape, all samples surpassed the recommended minimum criteria for sphericity and roundness, with most samples being well-rounded. For proppant strength, of 57 crush-resistance tested Missouri River delta samples of 40/70-sized sand, 23 (40 percent) were interpreted as meeting the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch. Of 12 tested samples of 70/140-sized sand, 9 (75 percent) of the Missouri River delta samples had less than 10 percent fines by volume following crush testing, achieving the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa. Crush resistance for delta samples was strongest at sandbar complex A, where 67 percent of tested samples met the 10-percent fines criterion at the 34.5-MPa threshold. This frequency was higher than was indicated by samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D that had rates of 50, 46, and 42 percent, respectively. The group of sandbar complex A samples also contained the largest percentages of samples dominated by the API 70/140 size class, which overall had a higher percentage of samples meeting the minimum criterion compared to samples dominated by coarser size classes; however, samples from sandbar complex A that had the API 40/70 size class tested also had a higher rate for meeting the minimum criterion (57 percent) than did samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D (50, 43, and 40 percent, respectively). For samples collected along the lower Niobrara River, of the 25 tested samples of 40/70-sized sand, 9 samples passed the API minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, but only 3 samples passed the more-stringent criterion of 8 percent postcrush fines. All four tested samples of 70/140 sand passed the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, with postcrush fines percentage of at most 4.1 percent. For two reaches of the lower Niobrara River, where hydraulic sorting was energized artificially by the hydraulic head drop at and immediately downstream from Spencer Dam, suitability of channel deposits for potential use as fracture sand was confirmed by test results. All reach A washed samples were well-rounded and had sphericity scores above 0.65, and samples for 80 percent of sampled locations met the crush-resistance criterion at the 34.5-MPa stress level. A conservative lower-bound estimate of sand volume in the reach A deposits was about 86,000 cubic meters. All reach B samples were well-rounded but sphericity averaged 0.63, a little less than the average for upstream reaches A and SP. All four samples tested passed the crush-resistance test at 34.5 MPa. Of three reach B sandbars, two had no more than 3 percent fines after the crush test, surpassing more stringent criteria for crush resistance that accept a maximum of 6 percent fines following the crush test for the API 70/140 size class. Relative to the crush-resistance test results for the API 40/70 size fraction of two samples of mine output from Loup River settling-basin dredge spoils near Genoa, Nebr., four of five reach A sample locations compared favorably. The four samples had increases in fines composition of 1.6–5.9 percentage points, whereas fines in the two mine-output samples increased by an average 6.8 percentage points.

Nebraska, South Dakota↗

USGS2022

Ancient winds, waves, and atmosphere in Gale Crater, Mars, inferred from sedimentary structures and wave modeling

Wave modeling and analysis of sedimentary structures were used to evaluate whether four examples of symmetrical, reversing, or straight-crested bedforms in Gale crater sandstones are preserved wave ripples; deposition by waves would demonstrate that the lake was not covered by ice at that time. Wave modeling indicates that regardless of atmospheric density, winds that exceeded the threshold of aeolian sand transport could have generated waves capable of producing nearshore wave ripples in most grain sizes of sand. Reversing 3-m-wavelength bedforms in the Kimberley formation are interpreted not as wave ripples but rather as large aeolian ripples that formed in an atmosphere approximately as thin as at present. These exhumed bedforms define many of the ridges at outcrops that appear striated in satellite images. At Kimberley these bedforms demonstrably underlie and therefore predate subaqueous beds, suggesting that a thin atmosphere existed at least temporarily before subaqueous deposition ceased in the crater. The other three candidate wave ripples (Square Top, Hunda, and Voe) are consistent with modeled waves, but other origins cannot be excluded. The predominance of flat-laminated (non-rippled) beds in the lacustrine Murray formation suggests that some aspect of the lake was not conducive to formation or preservation of recognizable wave ripples. Water depths may generally have been too deep, lakebed sediment may have been too fine-grained, the lake may have been smaller than modeled, or the lake may have been covered by ice. Plain Language Summary Wave modeling and analysis of sedimentary structures were used to evaluate whether ancient lake deposits in Gale crater contain ripples formed by waves on the surface of the lake. Deposition by waves would show that the lake was not covered by ice at that time. Modeling shows that regardless of atmospheric density, winds capable of moving sand on land would generally have been strong enough to form waves that would produce ripples near shore. Large bedforms in the Kimberley formation are interpreted as ripples formed by the wind in an atmosphere similar to that of Mars today. These bedforms underlie and are older than other beds deposited in water, thereby showing that a thin atmosphere existed at least temporarily before deposition in water ceased in the crater. Three other candidate wave ripples are consistent with modeled waves, but other origins are possible. Thick sequences of sedimentary rock in Gale crater are flat-laminated rather than rippled, suggesting that some aspect of the lake was not favorable for their formation or preservation. Much of the lake may have been too deep or ice-covered, or the lake may have been smaller than modeled or had sediment too fine to form easily observed ripples.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

USGS2021

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2013

Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations. Attention to the details of a model is one of the best ways to identify potential problems, correct them if possible, and begin to assess the magnitude of potential model errors and uncertainty. Model users need to determine the level of acceptable uncertainty associated with their objectives, identify all sources of potential uncertainty (model uncertainty, data uncertainty, etc.), and assess their approach and results accordingly. In the draft Klamath River TMDL, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality identified the upstream boundary conditions as the largest source of uncertainty for both the current and natural conditions scenarios, not the model algorithms or choice of model parameters. We agree that the upstream boundary conditions are one of the largest, if not the largest, source of model uncertainty; therefore, the derivation of upstream boundary conditions may be more important to the TMDL than some other model-related issues identified in this review. The revised models contain a number of changes, some of which were done to solve small problems and are largely inconsequential to model results, but others of which are important and affect model predictions of instream concentrations. A consistent version of the model is now applied to all scenarios, and an error in the source code was corrected that had inadvertently discarded 20 percent of the incoming solar radiation in the original model. The baseline light-extinction coefficient for water was decreased and set to a consistent and defensible value across all models of reservoir reaches. Inconsistencies among the values of certain parameters in the original models, such as the ammonia nitrification rate and the decomposition rates of organic matter, have been eliminated, although the reasoning behind the final selections was not documented. The dependence of the rate of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) on temperature was modified such that the SOD rate was substantially decreased at temperatures less than 20°C, causing the model to predict higher dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in spring, autumn, and winter. Although that change to the temperature dependence function was done to make the function more similar to the model’s default, this change was not accompanied by any documentation of recalibration or sensitivity exercises. The maximum SOD rate for the 2002 current conditions scenario was decreased from 3.0 grams per square meter per day (g/m 2 /d) in the original model to 2.0 g/m 2 /d in the revised model, a considerable adjustment that appears to have been needed to offset effects of a change to another variable (O2LIM) that would have resulted in a substantial increase in the effective SOD rate for 2002. A 50-percent decrease in the SOD rate over a 2-year period, however, is not likely to be mirrored by field measurements, so this change may be compensating for some process that is not represented correctly in the DO budget for the current conditions scenarios. Several important changes were made to the natural conditions scenario. First, the elevation of the Keno reef was corrected; the elevation specified in the original model was 1 foot too high, which affected the volume of the pooled reach and the travel time through it. The most important changes to this scenario were to the upstream boundary inputs of organic matter and algae, which affect incoming fluxes of nitrogen and phosphorus. Algal biomass inputs were increased by approximately 60 percent during summer because of a change in the way those inputs were derived from results of the UKL TMDL model. Non-algal organic matter inputs were decreased, particularly in summer to correct a problem attributed to double-counting of phosphorus in the original inputs. The distribution of non-algal organic matter was changed from 20 percent dissolved in the original model to 90 percent dissolved in the revised model in response to review comments and published data. The overall sum of algal biomass and non-living organic matter was decreased, which resulted in lower inputs of total phosphorus and nitrogen. Total phosphorus inputs were less than 0.03 mg/L, and although the inputs were derived from selected results of the UKL TMDL model, these concentrations seem too low to be representative of a historically eutrophic system surrounded by extensive wetlands, peat soils, and a groundwater system high in phosphorus. The draft TMDL states that the upstream boundary conditions are the greatest source of uncertainty, greater than any uncertainty associated with the models. Efforts to improve existing models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL, therefore, would provide a substantial benefit to downstream modeling efforts on the Klamath River. Although many improvements were made in revising the Klamath River TMDL models, some issues and uncertainties remain. Several errors in the model source code remain, but do not affect model results for this application as long as certain options and rates are not changed; future users of these models should be aware of these issues. Although the distribution of dissolved and particulate organic matter was modified for the natural conditions scenario, that distribution was not changed for the current conditions scenarios. Recent data on that distribution and the likely rates of organic matter decomposition could be used to improve these models in the future. Nitrate predictions at Keno (Highway 66) still are too high for the current conditions scenarios; future efforts should re-evaluate the model’s denitrification rates and the release rate of ammonia from anoxic sediments. Possibly the most important of the remaining issues are tied to the two-state (healthy/unhealthy) hypothesis for the algae population that was coded into the model. Some of the rates and conversion functions could be refined to make them more acceptable; currently, the published literature does not support the concept of moderately low dissolved-oxygen concentrations as a stressor of algae in the ranges used by the model. More research is needed before these algorithms can be truly tested. The algorithms currently appear to help the model fit the patterns in the available data, and that is useful and perhaps sufficient for some purposes, but those algorithms are not truly predictive or reliable for certain purposes until they can be tested through well-designed experiments and research. In summary, the TMDL models used to simulate Link and Klamath Rivers from Link River Dam to Keno Dam were revised to fix several problems and address various issues. The resulting models are an improvement over those that were reviewed by USGS in 2009, and represent a useful advance in the simulation of a complex system that is difficult to model. However, several issues remain that cause increased uncertainty in the model results. Depending on the objectives of the modeling, now or in the future, these remaining issues could be more or less important. For the Klamath River TMDL, the upstream boundary conditions may be a larger source of uncertainty than the concerns with model algorithms and model parameters identified in this review. Efforts to re-evaluate the available models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL would be highly beneficial to downstream modeling efforts in the Klamath River.

Oregon;California↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of a mass-balance approach to determine consumptive water use in northeastern Illinois

A principal component of evaluating and managing water use is consumptive use. This is the portion of water withdrawn for a particular use, such as residential, which is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise removed from the immediate water environment. The amount of consumptive use may be estimated by a water (mass)-balance approach; however, because of the difficulty of obtaining necessary data, its application typically is restricted to the facility scale. The general governing mass-balance equation is: Consumptive use = Water supplied - Return flows . This study explored a mass-balance field-based computation of consumptive use in a residential setting at the scale of a sanitary sewer service area (sewershed). In addition, the feasibility (cost and difficulty) and relative uncertainties (accuracies) associated with applying the approach at this scale were evaluated. The study was conducted during 2011–13 within a 3.5-square mile (mi 2 ) sewershed confined to a predominantly residential area of Elk Grove Village, Illinois. Following background evaluation of the geohydrologic setting, sewershed infrastructure, and possible components of supplied and returned water, the identified primary components were 1. public water deliveries by the Elk Grove Village Department of Public Works, 2. self-served groundwater withdrawals in an included unincorporated neighborhood with public sanitary sewer service, 3. return flows to the sanitary sewer system, and 4. direct return of water discharged from swimming pools to Salt Creek. Water volumes principally were reported for deliveries, measured for sanitary sewer returns by using an acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter, and estimated for domestic withdrawals and swimming pool discharges to storm sewers. All water volumes required some degree of estimation. Observation wells were installed adjacent to sewer pipelines (lines) to determine the depth of the water table relative to that of the sewer lines and to collect water samples for detection of optical brighteners, as they are routinely discharged as clotheswashing waste to sanitary sewers. These data provided qualitative information on gains (inflow and infiltration) and losses (exfiltration) of sewer flow by pipe leakage, which might otherwise not be considered in the sewer flow return measurements. Hydrographs of sewer flow also were evaluated to identify and estimate storm-associated inputs to sewer flow. The volume of sanitary sewer return flow (778 million gallons per year [Mgal/yr]) was determined to substantially exceed the volume of supplied water (566 Mgal/yr), thus, for this study setting, voiding the utility of the applied mass-balance approach for estimating consumptive water use. Mass-balance components, including sanitary sewer flow and supplied-water use, were estimated within reasonable limits of uncertainty. Evidence of a water table that is typically shallower than the area’s sewer lines, yet is sometimes depressed near more deeply buried sewer lines, suggests groundwater infiltration into the sewers contributes to the excess volume of return flow. Technical obstacles and project resources precluded accurate quantification of infiltration volumes and other gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow. As estimated from various simplified methods, a minimum of 26 percent of return flow measured in the sanitary sewer represented groundwater infiltration and stormwater inflow; separately, about 2 percent of return flow was estimated as inflow. On the basis of the alternative winter base-rate method, consumptive use in the sewershed was estimated as 13 percent, which compares favorably with that used by the State of Illinois for Lake Michigan allocation accounting (10 percent) and other States and Canadian Provinces in the Great Lakes region (generally 10-15 percent). The study also provided other findings considered useful to studies of water use and to performance evaluation of sanitary sewer infrastructure. In urban residential settings, the comparatively small volumes of nonpublic sources of water (self-supplied) and direct (nonsanitary) return flow potentially can be ignored in the estimation of consumptive use. An acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter can be used in sanitary sewers to accurately measure discharge and reasonably estimate storm-associated inflows. Hourly to daily patterns of water use can be readily identified and quantified in the return flow record for the sanitary sewers. Relative volumes of infiltration gains (and exfiltration losses) can be substantial, even in sewer systems of communities making significant investments in system upgrades to limit sewer line leakage. Monitoring of optical brighteners in groundwater (and potentially in sanitary sewer flow) can provide a useful means of identifying probable leakage from (and to) sewer lines. Accurate quantification of gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow at the sewershed scale will require additional research effort and technical advances. Under ideal conditions, accurate quantification of consumptive use at the sewershed scale by the described mass-balance approach might be possible. Under most prevailing conditions, quantification likely would be more costly and time consuming than that of the present study, given the freely contributed technical support of the host community and relatively appropriate conditions of the study area. Essentials to quantification of consumptive use are a fully cooperative community, storm and sanitary sewers that are separate, and newer sewer infrastructure and (or) a robust program for limiting infiltration, exfiltration, and inflow.

Illinois↗

USGS1978

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Souris-Red-Rainy region

A broad-perspective analysis of the ground-water resources and present and possible future water development and management in the Souris-Red-Rainy Region is presented. The region includes the basins of the Souris River within Montana and North Dakota; the Red River of the North in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota; and the Rainy River within Minnesota. The region includes 59,645 square miles, mostly in North Dakota and Minnesota. The terrain is relatively flat, but ranges in altitude from 2,541 to 750 feet. Annual average precipitation ranges from 14 inches in the west to 28 inches in the east and about 75 percent of it is rain. The mean annual snowfall ranges from 32 inches in the west to 64 inches in the east. Temperatures range from -55° to 118° F (-48.3° to 47.8° C). Irrigation is needed at least part of the time to assure crop production, particularly in the western part of the region. Sand and gravel deposits in the drift form the most important freshwater aquifers. Other aquifers are found in at least parts of the region in the Precambrian, Paleozoic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary rocks. The potentiometric surface in the bedrock aquifers generally decreases in altitude toward the Red River of the North, indicating that the general direction of ground-water movement is toward the river. Ground water with less than 3,000 milligrams per liter dissolved solids is available throughout the region. Ground water with less than 1,000 milligrams per liter occurs in most of the region east of the Red River of the North and in most of the shallow aquifers west of the river. The total volume of water available from storage having less than 3,000 milligrams per liter dissolved solids is estimated to be 5x10 8 acre-feet. In addition to the fresh and slightly saline water, the region has abundant highly mineralized water that can be considered as a resource. Yields of wells in individual bedrock aquifers are generally less than 100 gallons per minute but locally yields may be as much as 500 gallons per minute and more. Yields in drift aquifers are frequently less than 100 gallons per minute but range from 5 to 1,000 gallons per minute. In a few places outwash yields more than 1,000 gallons per minute. Ground water is the sole or a primary source of water supply in much of the region, including supplies for irrigation, domestic and livestock, municipal, and industrial needs. Reportedly, the potential irrigation development is 1,550,000 acres, as compared with 50,200 acres in 1975. Both ground- and surface-water supplies would be required to meet these demands. Rural domestic and livestock water supplies are derived almost entirely from ground-water sources. Smaller communities and towns generally rely on ground water, and the cities and industries use ground water, surface water, or both. The municipalities using surface water generally depend upon reservoir storage. Water quality rather than quantity is the greater water-supply problem for many communities in the region. Increased demands on both ground-water and surface-water supplies likely will be made in the future. Storage of surface water in the ground-water reservoirs during times of surplus for withdrawal during times of scarcity would aid in meeting these demands. The surplus (flood) water is of better chemical quality than underlying ground water in parts of the western half of the region. Freshwater could be stored in saline- or freshwater aquifers, and pumped out later, as needed. Thus, the ground-water reservoirs have a definite present and potential role in water management. To understand the hydrologic system for management purposes there is a need to determine more adequately the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of existing aquifers and the location of new aquifers. Also, as pumping and other stresses on any part of the hydrologic system affect other parts of the system, monitoring programs ideally should be started and maintained to detect changes and determine effects of the stresses. Many alternatives are available for managing water in the region. Some of these are operational and others are undergoing research. Adequate hydrologic information is needed to aid in solving problems of water supply, use, and pollution.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS1977

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Souris-Red-Rainy region

A broad-perspective analysis of the ground-water resources and present and possible future water development and management in the Souris-Red-Rainy Region is presented. The region includes the basins of the Souris River within Montana and North Dakota; the Red River of the North in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota; and the Rainy River within Minnesota. The region includes 59,645 square miles, mostly in North Dakota and Minnesota. The terrain is relatively flat, but ranges in altitude from 2,541 to 750 feet. Annual average precipitation ranges from 14 inches in the west to 28 inches in the east and about 75 percent of it is rain. The mean annual snow fall ranges from 32 inches in the west to 64 inches in the east. Temperatures range from -55° to 118°F (-48.3° to 47.8°C). Irrigation is needed at least part of the time to assure crop production, particularly in the western part of the region. Sand and gravel deposits in the drift form the most important fresh-water aquifers. Other aquifers are found in at least parts of the region in the Precambrian, Paleozoic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary rocks. The potentiometric surface in the bedrock generally decreases in altitude toward the Red River of the North, indicating that the general direction of ground-water movement is toward the river. Ground-water with less than 3,000 milligrams per liter dissolved solids is available throughout the region. Ground water with less than 1,000 milligrams per liter occurs in most of the region east of the Red River of the North and in most of the shallow aquifers west of the river. The total volume of water available from storage having less than 3,000 milligrams per liter dissolved solids is estimated to be 5 x 10 8 acre-feet. In addition to the fresh and slightly saline water, the region has abundant highly mineralized water that can be considered as a resource. Yields of wells in individual bedrock aquifers are generally less than 100 gallons per minute but locally yields may be as much as 500 gallons per minute and more. Yields in drift aquifers are frequently less than 100 gallons per minute but range from 5 to 1,000 gallons per minute. In a few places outwash yields more than 1,000 gallons per minute. Ground water is the sole or a primary source of water supply in much of the region, including supplies for irrigation, domestic and livestock, municipal, and industrial needs. Reportedly, the potential irrigation development is 1,550,000 acres, as compared with 50,200 acres in 1975. Both ground- and surface-water supplies would be required to meet these demands. Rural domestic and livestock water supplies are derived almost entirely from ground-water sources. Smaller communities and towns generally rely on ground water, and the cities and industries use ground water, surface water, or both. The municipalities using surface water generally depend upon reservoir storage. Water quality rather than quantity is the greater water-supply problem for many communities in the region. Increased demands on both ground-water and surface-water supplies likely will be made in the future. Storage of surface water in the ground-water reservoirs during times of surplus for withdrawal during times of scarcity would aid in meeting these demands. The surplus (flood) water is of better chemical quality than underlying ground water in parts of the western half of the region. Fresh water could be stored in saline- or fresh-water aquifers, and pumped out later, as needed. Thus, the ground-water reservoirs have a definite present and potential role in water management. To understand the hydrologic system for management purposes there is a need to determine more adequately the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of existing aquifers and the location of new aquifers. Also, as pumping and other stresses on any part of the hydrologic system affect other parts of the system, monitoring programs ideally should be started and maintained to detect changes and determine effects of the stresses. Many alternatives are available for managing water in the region. Some of these are operational and others are undergoing research. Adequate hydrologic information is needed to aid in solving problems of water supply, use and pollution.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2003

Typing mineral deposits using their grades and tonnages in an artificial neural network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further. Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage). Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag. Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS1998

Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations

Observational evidence for both static and transient near-field and far-field triggered seismicity are explained in terms of a frictional instability model, based on a single degree of freedom spring-slider system and rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive equations. In this study a triggered earthquake is one whose failure time has been advanced by Δ t (clock advance) due to a stress perturbation. Triggering stress perturbations considered include square-wave transients and step functions, analogous to seismic waves and coseismic static stress changes, respectively. Perturbations are superimposed on a constant background stressing rate which represents the tectonic stressing rate. The normal stress is assumed to be constant. Approximate, closed-form solutions of the rate-and-state equations are derived for these triggering and background loads, building on the work of Dieterich [1992, 1994]. These solutions can be used to simulate the effects of static and transient stresses as a function of amplitude, onset time t 0 , and in the case of square waves, duration. The accuracies of the approximate closed-form solutions are also evaluated with respect to the full numerical solution and t 0 . The approximate solutions underpredict the full solutions, although the difference decreases as t 0 approaches the end of the earthquake cycle. The relationship between Δ t and t 0 differs for transient and static loads: a static stress step imposed late in the cycle causes less clock advance than an equal step imposed earlier, whereas a later applied transient causes greater clock advance than an equal one imposed earlier. For equal Δ t , transient amplitudes must be greater than static loads by factors of several tens to hundreds depending on t 0 . We show that the rate-and-state model requires that the total slip at failure is a constant, regardless of the loading history. Thus a static load applied early in the cycle, or a transient applied at any time, reduces the stress at the initiation of failure, whereas static loads that are applied sufficiently late raise it. Rate-and-state friction predictions differ markedly from those based on Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) in which Δ t equals the amplitude of the static stress change divided by the background stressing rate. The ΔCFS model assumes a stress failure threshold, while the rate-and-state equations require a slip failure threshold. The complete rate-and-state equations predict larger Δ t than the ΔCFS model does for static stress steps at small t 0 , and smaller Δ t than the ΔCFS model for stress steps at large t 0 . The ΔCFS model predicts nonzero Δ t only for transient loads that raise the stress to failure stress levels during the transient. In contrast, the rate-and-state model predicts nonzero Δ t for smaller loads, and triggered failure may occur well after the transient is finished. We consider heuristically the effects of triggering on a population of faults, as these effects might be evident in seismicity data. Triggering is manifest as an initial increase in seismicity rate that may be followed by a quiescence or by a return to the background rate. Available seismicity data are insufficient to discriminate whether triggered earthquakes are “new” or clock advanced. However, if triggering indeed results from advancing the failure time of inevitable earthquakes, then our modeling suggests that a quiescence always follows transient triggering and that the duration of increased seismicity also cannot exceed the duration of a triggering transient load. Quiescence follows static triggering only if the population of available faults is finite.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗