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At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Modeling uncertainty: Quicksand for water temperature modeling

Uncertainty has been a hot topic relative to science generally, and modeling specifically. Modeling uncertainty comes in various forms: measured data, limited model domain, model parameter estimation, model structure, sensitivity to inputs, modelers themselves, and users of the results. This paper will address important components of uncertainty in modeling water temperatures, and discuss several areas that need attention as the modeling community grapples with how to incorporate uncertainty into modeling without getting stuck in the quicksand that prevents constructive contributions to policy making. The material, and in particular the reference, are meant to supplement the presentation given at this conference.

Hydrological Science and Technology↗
USGS2015

Strategic science: New frameworks to bring scientific expertise to environmental disaster response

Science is critical to society's ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from environmental crises. Natural and technological disasters such as disease outbreaks, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, oil spills, and tsunamis require coordinated scientific expertise across a range of disciplines to shape effective policies and protocols. Five years after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, new organizational frameworks have arisen for scientists and engineers to apply their expertise to disaster response and recovery in a variety of capacities. Here, we describe examples of these opportunities, including an exciting new collaboration between the Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography (ASLO) and the Department of the Interior's (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG).

Limnology and Oceanography↗
USGS2018

Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research

Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatio-temporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies.

Climate Research↗
USGS2012

2014 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps are revised every six years, corresponding with the update cycle of the International Building Code. These maps cover the conterminous U.S. and will be updated in 2014 using the best-available science that is obtained from colleagues at regional and topical workshops, which are convened in 2012-2013. Maps for Alaska and Hawaii will be updated shortly following this update. Alternative seismic hazard models discussed at the workshops will be implemented in a logic tree framework and will be used to develop the seismic hazard maps and associated products. In this paper we describe the plan to update the hazard maps, the issues raised in workshops up to March 2012, and topics that will be discussed at future workshops. An advisory panel will guide the development of the hazard maps and ensure that the maps are acceptable to a broad segment of the science and engineering communities. These updated maps will then be considered by end-users for inclusion in building codes, risk models, and public policy documents.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems; - identify possible causes for the changing conditions; - detect emerging problems, their possible causes, and the potential risk to Arctic ecosystems including indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents; and to - recommend actions required to reduce risks to Arctic ecosystems. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements and recommendations made in the Arctic Ocean Acidification Assessment Summary for Policy-makers that was delivered to Arctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Kiruna, Sweden in May 2011 and the related AMAP State of the Arctic Environment report Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview . It includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature, and details the sources for figures reproduced in the overview report. Whereas the Summary for Policy-makers report contains recommendations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with addressing the consequences of AOA, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature, such as proposals for filling gaps in knowledge, and recommendations relevant to future monitoring and research work. The AOA assessment was conducted between 2010 and 2013 by an international group of over 60 experts. Lead authors were selected based on an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. A similar process was used to select international experts who independently reviewed this report. Information contained in this report is fully references and based on first and foremost peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken since 2006. It also incorporates some new (unpublished) information from monitoring and research conducted according to well-established and documented national and international standards of quality assurance/quality control protocols. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials. Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The AOA assessment summary reports and films have therefore been developed specifically for policy-makers, summarizing the main findings of the AOA assessment. The AOA lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. The AOA reports and the films are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website: www.amap.no, and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the lead authors who coordinated the production of this report. Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the AOA peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report. A list of the main contributors is included at the start of each chapter. The list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes, laboratories and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in various countries in AOA-related monitoring and research. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP. The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support for most the experts involved in the preparation of the AMAP assessments. In particular, AMAP would like to acknowledge Norway for taking the lead-country role in this assessment and thank Canada, Norway, Sweden, USA and the Nordic Council of Ministers for their financial support to the AOA work. The AMAP Working Group is pleased to present its assessment to the Arctic Council and the international science community. Richard Bellerby (AOA assessment Chair) Russel Shearer (AMAP Chair) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, May 2013

Report↗
USGS2010

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An application to lateral-spread ground failure in coastal California

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

California↗
USGS1995

Mineral resources, environmental issues, and land use

Contrary to predictions from the 1950s through the mid-1980s, persistent shortages of nonfuel minerals have not occurred, despite prodigious consumption, and world reserves have increased. Global availability of raw materials is relevant to policy decisions regarding mineral development and land use. Justification for environmental protection may exceed that for mining a specific ore body. Demand for environmental accountability is rising worldwide, and new technologies are enabling internalization of costs. Mineral-rich developing nations plagued by inefficient state-owned mining enterprises, high population growth rates, and environmental degradation could realize substantial benefit by reforming government policies to encourage foreign investment in resources and by appropriate allocation of mineral rents.

Science↗
USGS2003

The U.S. Geological Survey land remote sensing program

The U.S. Geological Survey has been a provider of remotely sensed information for decades. As the availability and use of satellite data has grown, USGS has placed increasing emphasis on expanding the knowledge about the science of remote sensing and on making remotely sensed data more accessible. USGS encourages widespread availability and distribution of these data and through its programs, encourages and enables a variety of research activities and the development of useful applications of the data. The science of remote sensing has great potential for assisting in the monitoring and assessment of the impacts of natural disasters, management and analysis of environmental, biological, energy, and mineral investigations, and supporting informed public policy decisions. By establishing the Land Remote Sensing Program (LRS) as a major unit of the USGS Geography Program, USGS has taken the next step to further increase support for the accessibility, understanding, and use of remotely sensed data. This article describes the LRS Program, its mission and objectives, and how the program has been structured to accomplish its goals.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗
USGS2001

The environment and human health; USGS science for solutions

Emerging infectious diseases, ground-water contamination, trace-metal poisoning...environmental threats to public health the world over require new solutions. Because of an increased awareness of the issues, greater cooperation among scientific and policy agencies, and powerful new tools and techniques to conduct research, there is new hope that complex ecological health problems can be solved. U.S. Geological Survey scientists are forming partnerships with experts in the public health and biomedical research communities to conduct rigorous scientific inquiries into the health effects of ecological processes.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2006

A system to evaluate the scientific quality of biological and restoration objectives using National Wildlife Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plans as a case study

It is widely accepted that plans for restoration projects should contain specific, measurable, and science-based objectives to guide restoration efforts. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is in the process of developing Comprehensive Conservation Plans (CCPs) for more than 500 units in the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). These plans contain objectives for biological and ecosystem restoration efforts on the refuges. Based on USFWS policy, a system was developed to evaluate the scientific quality of such objectives based on three critical factors: (1) Is the objective specific, measurable, achievable, results-oriented, and time-fixed? (2) What is the extent of the rationale that explains the assumptions, logic, and reasoning for the objective? (3) How well was available science used in the development of the objective? The evaluation system scores each factor on a scale of 1 (poor) to 4 (excellent) according to detailed criteria. The biological and restoration objectives from CCPs published as of September 2004 (60 total) were evaluated. The overall average score for all biological and restoration objectives was 1.73. Average scores for each factor were: Factor 1-1.97; Factor 2-1.86; Factor 3-1.38. The overall scores increased from 1997 to 2004. Future restoration efforts may benefit by using this evaluation system during the process of plan development, to ensure that biological and restoration objectives are of the highest scientific quality possible prior to the implementation of restoration plans, and to allow for improved monitoring and adaptive management.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗
USGS2012

Estimating risks to aquatic life using quantile regression

One of the primary goals of biological assessment is to assess whether contaminants or other stressors limit the ecological potential of running waters. It is important to interpret responses to contaminants relative to other environmental factors, but necessity or convenience limit quantification of all factors that influence ecological potential. In these situations, the concept of limiting factors is useful for data interpretation. We used quantile regression to measure risks to aquatic life exposed to metals by including all regression quantiles (τ = 0.05–0.95, by increments of 0.05), not just the upper limit of density (e.g., 90 th quantile). We measured population densities (individuals/0.1 m 2 ) of 2 mayflies (Rhithrogena spp., Drunella spp.) and a caddisfly (Arctopsyche grandis), aqueous metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Zn), and other limiting factors (basin area, site elevation, discharge, temperature) at 125 streams in Colorado. We used a model selection procedure to test which factor was most limiting to density. Arctopsyche grandis was limited by other factors, whereas metals limited most quantiles of density for the 2 mayflies. Metals reduced mayfly densities most at sites where other factors were not limiting. Where other factors were limiting, low mayfly densities were observed despite metal concentrations. Metals affected mayfly densities most at quantiles above the mean and not just at the upper limit of density. Risk models developed from quantile regression showed that mayfly densities observed at background metal concentrations are improbable when metal mixtures are at US Environmental Protection Agency criterion continuous concentrations. We conclude that metals limit potential density, not realized average density. The most obvious effects on mayfly populations were at upper quantiles and not mean density. Therefore, we suggest that policy developed from mean-based measures of effects may not be as useful as policy based on the concept of limiting factors.

Colorado↗
USGS2004

Effects of housing density and cage floor space on C57BL/6J mice

The Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals (the Guide) is widely accepted as the housing standard by most Institutional Animal Care and Use Committees. The recommendations are based on best professional judgment rather than experimental data. Current efforts are directed toward replacing these guidelines with data-driven, species-appropriate standards. Our studies were undertaken to determine the optimum housing density for C57BL/6J mice, the most commonly used inbred mouse strain. Four-week-old mice were housed for 8 weeks at four densities (the recommended ???12 in2 [ca. 77.4 cm 2]/mouse down to 5.6 in2 [ca. 36.1 cm2]/mouse) in three cage types with various amounts of floor space. Housing density did not affect a variety of physiologic parameters but did affect certain micro-environmental parameters, although these remained within accepted ranges. A second study was undertaken housing C57BL/6J mice with as little as 3.2 in2/mouse (ca. 20.6 cm2). The major effect was elevated ammonia concentrations that exceeded limits acceptable in the workplace at increased housing densities; however, the nasal passages and eyeballs of the mice remained microscopically normal. On the basis of these results, we conclude that C57BL/6J mice as large as 29 g may be housed with 5.6 in2 of floor space per mouse. This area is approximately half the floor space recommended in the Guide. The role of the Guide is to ensure that laboratory animals are well treated and housed in a species-appropriate manner. Our data suggest that current policies could be altered in order to provide the optimal habitation conditions matched to this species' social needs. Copyright 2004 by the American Association for Laboratory Animal Science.

Comparative Medicine↗
USGS2010

Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Summary Report

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot project (GBILM) was one of four regional pilots to implement the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Thrust on Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) whose goal was to observe, understand, and predict landscape change and its implications on natural resources at multiple spatial and temporal scales and address priority natural resource management and policy issues. The Great Basin is undergoing rapid environmental change stemming from interactions among global climate trends, increasing human populations, expanding and accelerating land and water uses, invasive species, and altered fire regimes. GBLIM tested concepts and developed tools to store and analyze monitoring data, understand change at multiple scales, and forecast landscape change. The GBILM endeavored to develop and test a landscape-level monitoring approach in the Great Basin that integrates USGS disciplines, addresses priority management questions, catalogs and uses existing monitoring data, evaluates change at multiple scales, and contributes to development of regional monitoring strategies. GBILM functioned as an integrative team from 2005 to 2010, producing more than 35 science and data management products that addressed pressing ecosystem drivers and resource management agency needs in the region. This report summarizes the approaches and methods of this interdisciplinary effort, identifies and describes the products generated, and provides lessons learned during the project.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005 quantified by using multitemporal and multiresolution remotely sensed data

Forest cover is an important input variable for assessing changes to carbon stocks, climate and hydrological systems, biodiversity richness, and other sustainability science disciplines. Despite incremental improvements in our ability to quantify rates of forest clearing, there is still no definitive understanding on global trends. Without timely and accurate forest monitoring methods, policy responses will be uninformed concerning the most basic facts of forest cover change. Results of a feasible and cost-effective monitoring strategy are presented that enable timely, precise, and internally consistent estimates of forest clearing within the humid tropics. A probability-based sampling approach that synergistically employs low and high spatial resolution satellite datasets was used to quantify humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005. Forest clearing is estimated to be 1.39% (SE 0.084%) of the total biome area. This translates to an estimated forest area cleared of 27.2 million hectares (SE 2.28 million hectares), and represents a 2.36% reduction in area of humid tropical forest. Fifty-five percent of total biome clearing occurs within only 6% of the biome area, emphasizing the presence of forest clearing “hotspots.” Forest loss in Brazil accounts for 47.8% of total biome clearing, nearly four times that of the next highest country, Indonesia, which accounts for 12.8%. Over three-fifths of clearing occurs in Latin America and over one-third in Asia. Africa contributes 5.4% to the estimated loss of humid tropical forest cover, reflecting the absence of current agro-industrial scale clearing in humid tropical Africa.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2025

Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ↗
USGS2013

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions in this fact sheet provide snapshots of our three research emphases, followed by descriptions of select current projects.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2017

Groundwater and streamflow information program Kansas Cooperative Water Science since 1895

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State, local, and other Federal agencies, operates a network of streamgages throughout the State of Kansas. Data provided by this network are used to forecast floods, operate reservoirs, develop water policy, administer regulation of water, and perform interpretive analyses of streamflow. This data collection and analysis effort has been sustained since 1895 through cooperative matching fund programs that allow the USGS to work with cooperative agencies to solve groundwater and surface water challenges that affect citizens locally and throughout the Nation.

Kansas↗
USGS2019

Adaptive Management and Monitoring

This is a chapter in a technical report that is the second of two works describing longer-term actions to implement policies and strategies for preventing and suppressing rangeland fire and restoring rangeland landscapes affected by fire in the Western United States. The first part, Chambers et al 2017, "Science Framework for conservation and restoration of the sagebrush biome: Linking the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy to long-term strategic conservation actions. Part 1. Science basis and applications" provides information and decision support tools. This part 2 describes application and use of part 1 to resource managers.

Report↗