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Simulation of the impacts of spring diversions on streamflow in the Strawberry Creek watershed, San Bernardino County, California, using an integrated hydrological model

The Strawberry Creek watershed, in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the effects of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this watershed. In this study, we constructed the Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model to increase this understanding. The Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model is an integrated surface runoff and groundwater model, GSFLOW to simulate surface runoff and infiltration and groundwater flow. The model has 263 rows and 176 columns in each of its three layers. The model area includes the Strawberry Creek and four adjacent watersheds. The precipitation-runoff modeling system was calibrated using two streamflow gaging stations, and the groundwater and surface-water flow model was calibrated to the reported spring diversion discharge and a sparse number of groundwater-level measurements. The Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model was run with and without diversions active, and simulated streamflow was compared, indicating that in the headwaters of Strawberry Creek, about 35 percent of the diversion flow was captured from base flow.

California

Diamondback terrapin resource use in a seagrass-dominated coastal bay varies by life stage

Diamondback terrapins, hereafter referred to as terrapins, are the only estuarine turtle species native to North America. However, terrapins are also occasionally found in marine habitats, such as seagrass beds, and yet little is known about how they use those marine habitats. We sampled epidermis from terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin macrospilota ) inhabiting a seagrass-dominated coastal bay in Northwest Florida and compared resource use among terrapin sexes and life-history stages using the isotopic niche and mixing models. Terrapins were generalist foragers, and their diets varied by sex and life stage, as has been reported elsewhere. Basal resource mixing models indicated the terrapin food web was based primarily on Thalassia testudinum for adult females (50.0%) and Spartina alterniflora for adult males (49.7%) and juvenile females (42.2%). Dietary mixing models indicated the adult female diet included a relatively high proportion of Thalassia testudinum (31.3%), suggesting a strong reliance on seagrass dominated prey and not necessarily large consumption of seagrass, followed by lower proportions of gastropods (26.6%) and crustaceans (19.1%). Primary diet items for juvenile females and adult males included relatively equal proportions of echinoderms, gastropods, crustaceans, ascidians, and porifera. Body and head size of terrapins may drive differences in diet, as interpreted from mixing model results. Although mangroves are expanding their range northward along the Gulf of America coast and have become established at our study site, it does not appear that terrapins are foraging within these newly established mangrove forests. Finally, the terrapin niche, particularly for adult females, may overlap with the sea turtle niche in seagrass-dominated bays. Whether sea turtles impact terrapin populations, including through direct predation, is unknown.

Florida

Wild bird mortality and West Nile virus surveillance: Biases associated with detection, reporting, and carcass persistence

Surveillance targeting dead wild birds, in particular American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), plays a critical role in West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance in the United States. Using crow decoy surrogates, detection and reporting of crow carcasses within urban and rural environments of DeKalb County, Georgia were assessed for potential biases that might occur in the county's WNV surveillance program. In each of two replicated trials, during July and September 2003, 400 decoys were labeled with reporting instructions and distributed along randomly chosen routes throughout designated urban and rural areas within DeKalb County. Information-theoretic methods were used to compare alternative models incorporating the effects of area and trial on probabilities of detection and reporting. The model with the best empirical support included the effects of area on both detection and reporting of decoys. The proportion of decoys detected in the urban area (0.605, SE=0.024) was approximately twice that of the rural area (0.293, SE =0.023), and the proportion of decoys reported in the urban area (0.273, SE =0.023) was approximately three times that of the rural area (0.103, SE=0.028). These results suggest that human density and associated factors can substantially influence dead crow detection and reporting and, thus, the perceived distribution of WNV. In a second and separate study, the persistence and fate of American crow and house sparrow (Passer domesticus) carcasses were assessed in urban and rural environments in Athens-Clarke, Madison, and Oconee counties, Georgia. Two replicated trials using 96 carcasses of each species were conducted during July and September 2004. For a portion of the carcasses, motion sensitive cameras were used to monitor scavenging species visits. Most carcasses (82%) disappeared or were decayed by the end of the 6-day study. Carcass persistence averaged 1.6 days in rural areas and 2.1 days in urban areas. We analyzed carcass persistence rates using a known-fate model framework in program MARK. Model selection based on Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that the best model explaining carcass persistence rates included species and number of days of exposure; however, the model including area and number of days of exposure received approximately equal support. Model-averaged carcass persistence rates were higher for urban areas and for crow carcasses. Six mammalian and one avian species were documented scavenging upon carcasses. Dead wild birds could represent potential sources of oral WNV exposure to these scavenging species. Species composition of the scavenger assemblage was similar in urban and rural areas but "scavenging pressure" was greater in rural areas. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Using time-dependent models to investigate body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake

Identifying links between phenotypic attributes and fitness is a primary goal of reproductive ecology. Differences in within-year patterns of body condition between sexes of gartersnakes in relation to reproduction and growth are not fully understood. We conducted an 11-year field study of body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake Thamnophis gigas across 13 study areas in the Central Valley of California, USA. We developed a priori mixed effects models of body condition index (BCI), which included covariates of time, sex and snout-vent length and reported the best-approximating models using an information theoretic approach. Also, we developed models of growth rate index (GRI) using covariates of sex and periods based on reproductive behavior. The largest difference in BCI between sexes, as predicted by a non-linear (cubic) time model, occurred during the mating period when female body condition (0.014??0.001 se) was substantially greater than males (-0.027??0.002 se). Males likely allocated energy to search for mates, while females likely stored energy for embryonic development. We also provided evidence that males use more body energy reserves than females during hibernation, perhaps because of different body temperatures between sexes. We found GRI of male snakes was substantially lower during the mating period than during a non-mating period, which indicated that a trade-off existed between searching for mates and growth. These findings contribute to our understanding of snake ecology in a Mediterranean climate. ?? 2009 The Zoological Society of London.

Journal of Zoology

A preliminary SPARROW model of suspended sediment for the conterminous United States

This report describes the results of a preliminary Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model of suspended sediment for the conterminous United States. The analysis is based on flux estimates compiled from more than 1,800 long-term monitoring stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during the period 1975-2007. The SPARROW model is structured on the Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network, consisting of approximately 62,000 reach segments. The reach network has been modified to include more than 4,000 reservoirs, an important landscape feature affecting the delivery of suspended sediment. The model identifies six sources of sediment, including the stream channel and five classes of land use: urban, forested, Federal nonforested, agricultural and other, and noninundated land. The delivery of sediment from landform sources to RF1 streams is mediated by soil permeability, erodibility, slope, and rainfall; streamflow is found to affect the amount of sediment mobilized from the stream channel. The results show agricultural land and the stream channel to be major sources of sediment flux. Per unit area, Federal nonforested and urban lands are the largest landform sediment sources. Reservoirs are identified as major sites for sediment attenuation. This report includes a description for how the model results can be used to assess changes in instream sediment flux and concentration resulting from proposed changes in the regulation of sediment discharge from construction sites.

Open-File Report

Linear regression model documentation for computing water-quality constituent concentrations using continuous real-time water-quality data for the Republican River, Clay Center, Kansas, July 2018 through March 2021

The Republican River is the primary inflow to Milford Lake and drains areas of Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado. Milford Lake has been listed as impaired and designated hypereutrophic by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment because of excessive nutrient loading. Milford Lake had confirmed harmful algal blooms every summer from 2011 through 2017 and in 2020 and 2021. In the lower Republican River drainage basin, the Regional Conservation Partnership Program, administered by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, provides reimbursement to agricultural producers that implement best management practices intended to decrease sediment and nutrient runoff and loading into Milford Lake. Sediment and nutrient loads could potentially be driving factors in the development of harmful algal blooms in the reservoir. Since July 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, has collected continuous and discrete water-quality data at the Republican River at Clay Center, Kansas, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 06856600), which is about 15 river miles upstream from Milford Lake. This report documents site-specific regression models for the computation of continuous concentrations of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total carbon developed using continuous and discrete data collected from July 24, 2018, the date of continuous water-quality monitor installation, through March 31, 2021. The objective of this study is to characterize sediment and nutrient transport in the Milford Lake drainage basin before, during, and after best management practice implementation using the models described in this report. The explanatory variable turbidity explained a high amount (72–96 percent) of the variance in suspended-sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total carbon concentrations. Statistical plots for the four selected models showed the desired normality and homoscedasticity in residuals, and model standard error ratios indicated that recomputing each selected model after removing a randomly selected 10 percent of the data did not substantially change model coefficients.

Kansas

Regression relations and long-term water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, yields, and trends in the North Fork Ninnescah River, south-central Kansas, 1999–2019

Cheney Reservoir, in south-central Kansas, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The North Fork Ninnescah River is the largest tributary to Cheney Reservoir and contributes about 70 percent of the inflow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Wichita, has been continuously monitoring water quality (including water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity) on the North Fork Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir (U.S. Geological Survey site 07144780) since November 1998. Continued data collection would be beneficial to update and describe changing water-quality conditions in the drainage basin and in the reservoir over time. Regression models were developed to describe relations between discretely measured constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties. The models updated in this report include total suspended solids (TSS), suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), nitrate plus nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic carbon (TOC). Daily computed concentrations for TSS, TP, and nitrate plus nitrite during 1999–2019 were compared with Cheney Reservoir Task Force (CRTF) goals for base-flow and runoff conditions. CRTF goals for base-flow concentrations were exceeded more frequently (70 to 99.9 percent of the time) than runoff goals (0 to 11 percent of the time). Except for 2012, annual mean TSS concentrations exceeded the base-flow goal every year. Nitrate plus nitrite and TP annual mean concentrations exceeded the base-flow goals every year. TSS and nitrate plus nitrite annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions never exceeded the CRTF runoff goal. TP annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions only exceeded the CRTF runoff goal during 2002. Sedimentation is progressively reducing the storage capacity of Cheney Reservoir. During 1999–2019, 55 percent of the computed suspended-sediment load was transported during the top 1 percent of loading days (76 days); 22 percent of the total load was transported in the top 10 loading days, indicating that substantial parts of suspended-sediment loads continue to be delivered during disproportionately small periods in Cheney Reservoir. Successful sediment management efforts necessitate reduction techniques that account for these large load events. Flow-normalized concentrations and fluxes were computed during 1999 through 2019 using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and WRTDS bootstrap tests. Flow-normalized concentrations of TSS, SSC, OP, TP, and TOC had upward trend probabilities; conversely, nitrate plus nitrite had a downward trend. Flow-normalized fluxes for OP, TP, and TOC had an upward trend. No discernible patterns were identified for flow-normalized flux of TSS or suspended sediment. Nitrate plus nitrite flow-normalized flux indicated a downward trend. Flow-normalized concentrations for TSS were less than the CRTF long-term goal of 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), but the upward trend indicated the long-term goal may be exceeded if no changes are made. Flow-normalized TP concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal (0.1 mg/L) and were assigned a very likely upward trend. Flow-normalized nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal of 1.2 mg/L during the beginning of the study period, then were less than the CRTF goal for the remainder of the study; however, during 2010–19 flow-normalized concentrations increased by 6 percent. Linking water-quality changes to causal factors requires consistent monitoring before, during, and after changes; this presents challenges related to length and frequency of data collection and available concomitant land-use and conservation practice data. As such, attribution of water-quality trends to land-use changes or conservation practices was not possible for this study because of a lack of land-use and conservation practice data. Additionally, because precipitation frequency and intensity are projected to continue to increase in the Great Plains region, accounting for extreme episodic events may be an important consideration in future sediment and nutrient load reduction plans.

Kansas

Helicopter electromagnetic survey of the Model Land Area, Southeastern Miami-Dade County, Florida

This report describes a helicopter electromagnetic survey flown over the Model Land Area in southeastern Miami-Dade County, Florida, to map saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer. The survey, which is located south and east of Florida City, Florida, covers an area of 115 square kilometers with a flight-line spacing of 400 meters. A five-frequency, horizontal, coplanar bird with frequencies ranging from 400 to 100,000 Hertz was used. The data were interpreted using differential resistivity analysis and inversion to produce cross sections and resistivity depth-slice maps. The depth of investigation is as deep as 100 meters in freshwater-saturated portions of the Biscayne aquifer and the depth diminishes to about 50 meters in areas that are intruded by saltwater. The results compare favorably with ground-based, time-domain electromagnetic soundings and induction logs from observation wells in the area. The base of a high-resistivity, freshwater-saturated zone mapped in the northern 2 kilometers of the survey area corresponds quite well with the base of the surficial aquifer that has been determined by drilling. In general, saltwater in the survey area extends 9 to 12 kilometers inland from the coast; however, there is a long nose of saltwater centered along the Card Sound Road Canal that extends 15 kilometers inland. The cause of this preferential intrusion is likely due to uncontrolled surface flow along the canal and subsequent leakage of saltwater into the aquifer. Saltwater also extends farther inland in the area between U.S. Highway 1 and Card Sound Road than it does to the west of this area. Until 1944, a railroad grade occupied the current location of U.S. Highway 1. Borrow ditches associated with the railroad grade connected to Barnes Sound and allowed saltwater to flow during droughts and storm surges to within a few kilometers of Florida City. Relicts of this saltwater that settled to the bottom of the Biscayne aquifer can be seen in the helicopter electromagnetic data. The area to the west of U.S. Highway 1 is more resistive in the upper 10 meters than the area to the east of the road; this reflects the influence of surface-water flows that are blocked by U.S. Highway 1. Between Card Sound Road and U.S. Highway 1, resistivities are slightly lower compared to adjacent areas. In the southern portion of the survey area, the surficial aquifer underlying the Biscayne aquifer is more resistive; this indicates that it contains fresher water than that found at the base of the Biscayne aquifer.

Florida

An individual-based model for predicting dynamics of a newly established Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) population—Final report

Project Summary The Mexican wolf recovery team proposed to establish other populations of Mexican wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) in the Southwest (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1982). We were tasked to conduct an extensive simulation modeling exercise to determine release strategies (in conjunction with management actions) that best predict establishment of a new Mexican wolf population. Our objectives were to determine optimal release and management strategies for population establishment and growth. This is a retrospective analysis utilizing data from 1998 to 2014, and during this period, we divided management strategies into two phases; (1) 1998–2008, where nuisance wolves (i.e., wolves that exhibit nuisance behavior or depredate livestock) were managed primarily through lethal removals and removals to captivity, and (2) 2009–2014, when lethal removals ceased and diversionary feeding was provided to denning packs to dissuade wolves from conflict with humans. Management strategies from the second phase are being used for management of the current Mexican wolf population, and demographic rates derived from alternate population modeling in Vortex incorporating post-2008 wolf data are being used to guide future recovery efforts. Therefore, demographic rates estimated from our retrospective analysis will differ (i.e., due to our unique approach to the analyses and the demographic rates being derived from a different dataset), and are intended solely to address the objectives of this report, and are not intended as basis for the development of management recommendations for the current Mexican wolf population. Using individual-based models, we tested dozens of scenarios and derived an optimal release strategy that had the highest probability of establishing a new population and which maximized subsequent post-release growth, and in this report, we present these model results. Findings from this research will improve our understanding of release strategies that yield growing populations, advance our understanding of the demands of reintroducing large carnivores, and provide insight into beneficial strategies that could aid other species reintroduction programs.

Arizona, New Mexico

Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

Journal of Coastal Research

Dynamic computer model for the metallogenesis and tectonics of the Circum-North Pacific

The digital files on this report consist of a dynamic computer model of the metallogenesis and tectonics of the Circum-North Pacific, and background articles, figures, and maps. The tectonic part of the dynamic computer model is derived from a major analysis of the tectonic evolution of the Circum-North Pacific which is also contained in directory tectevol. The dynamic computer model and associated materials on this CD-ROM are part of a project on the major mineral deposits, metallogenesis, and tectonics of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera. The project provides critical information on bedrock geology and geophysics, tectonics, major metalliferous mineral resources, metallogenic patterns, and crustal origin and evolution of mineralizing systems for this region. The major scientific goals and benefits of the project are to: (1) provide a comprehensive international data base on the mineral resources of the region that is the first, extensive knowledge available in English; (2) provide major new interpretations of the origin and crustal evolution of mineralizing systems and their host rocks, thereby enabling enhanced, broad-scale tectonic reconstructions and interpretations; and (3) promote trade and scientific and technical exchanges between North America and Eastern Asia.

Open-File Report

Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Russian River watershed, California

The Russian River watershed is in northern Sonoma County and southern Mendocino County, California, in the northern part of the California Coast Ranges. The Russian River serves as a supply for agricultural irrigation and for municipal, domestic, and commercial uses. Through a cooperative agreement with the California State Water Resources Control Board and Sonoma County Water Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey has completed studies to better understand the hydrogeologic system and develop numerical hydrologic modeling tools to evaluate and aid in managing groundwater resources. This report focuses on the development of a digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Russian River watershed for use in groundwater resource assessment and numerical models. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Russian River watershed portrays the altitude, thickness, and extent of five hydrogeologic units. These five hydrogeologic units include (1) a basement unit, (2) the Sonoma Volcanics, (3) a consolidated sedimentary rock unit, (4) an unconsolidated sediment unit, and (5) channel alluvium. Model input data were compiled from published geologic maps, interpreted well data, and a model of the top of basement derived from gravity data. These data were used to construct surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface boundaries of each hydrogeologic unit. Top surfaces were created for the five hydrogeologic units and then stacked in three dimensions to create a solid-volume digital model. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model described in this report and the corresponding data represent the generalized geometry of the subsurface geologic units; the model reproduces the input geologic data with reasonable accuracy and is consistent with previously published subsurface conceptualizations of the region. The model indicates the overall geometry of the basement within the watershed and the spatial extent, altitude, and thickness of the basin-filling units. The hydrogeologic framework model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

California

Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling

The Lake Bosumtwi sediment record represents one of the longest and highest-resolution terrestrial records of paleoclimate change available from sub-Saharan Africa. Here we report a new sediment age model framework for the last ~ 45 cal kyr of sedimentation using a combination of high-resolution radiocarbon dating, Bayesian age-depth modeling and lamination counting. Our results highlight the practical limits of these methods for reducing age model uncertainties and suggest that even with very high sampling densities, radiocarbon uncertainties of at least a few hundred years are unavoidable. Age model uncertainties are smallest during the Holocene (205 yr) and the glacial (360 yr) but are large at the base of the record (1660 yr), due to a combination of decreasing sample density, larger calibration uncertainties and increases in radiocarbon age scatter. For portions of the chronology older than ~ 35 cal kyr, additional considerations, such as the use of a low-blank graphitization system and more rigorous sample pretreatment were necessary to generate a reliable age depth model because of the incorporation of small amounts of younger carbon. A comparison of radiocarbon age model results and lamination counts over the time interval ~ 15–30 cal kyr agree with an overall discrepancy of ~ 10% and display similar changes in sedimentation rate, supporting the annual nature of sediment laminations in the early part of the record. Changes in sedimentation rates reconstructed from the age-depth model indicate that intervals of enhanced sediment delivery occurred at 16–19, 24 and 29–31 cal kyr, broadly synchronous with reconstructed drought episodes elsewhere in northern West Africa and potentially, with changes in Atlantic meridional heat transport during North Atlantic Heinrich events. These data suggest that millennial-scale drought events in the West African monsoon region were latitudinally extensive, reaching within several hundred kilometers of the Guinea coast. This is inconsistent with a simple southward shift in the mean position of the monsoon rainbelt, and requires changes in moisture convergence as a result of either a reduction in the moisture content of the tropical rainbelt, decreased convection, or both.

Lake Bosumtwi

Water-quality data from 2002 to 2003 and analysis of data gaps for development of total maximum daily loads in the Lower Klamath River Basin, California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected water-quality data during 2002 and 2003 in the Lower Klamath River Basin, in northern California, to support studies of river conditions as they pertain to the viability of Chinook and Coho salmon and endangered suckers. To address the data needs of the North Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board for the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), water temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH were continuously monitored at sites on the Klamath, Trinity, Shasta, and Lost Rivers. Water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for selected nutrients, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin-a, and trace elements. Sediment oxygen demand was measured on the Shasta River. Results of analysis of the data collected were used to identify locations in the Lower Klamath River Basin and periods of time during 2002 and 2003 when river conditions were more likely to be detrimental to salmonid or sucker health because of occasional high water temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, and conditions that supported abundant populations of algae and aquatic plants. The results were also used to assess gaps in data by furthering the development of the conceptual model of water flow and quality in the Lower Klamath River Basin using available data and the current understanding of processes that affect water quality and by assessing needs for the develoment of mathematical models of the system. The most notable gap in information for the study area is in sufficient knowledge about the occurrence and productivity of algal communities. Other gaps in data include vertical water-quality profiles for the reservoirs in the study area, and in an adequate understanding of the chemical oxygen demands and the sediment oxygen demands in the rivers and of the influence of riparian shading on the rivers. Several mathematical models are discussed in this report for use in characterizing the river systems in the study area; also discussed are the specific data needed for the models, and the spatial and temporal data available as boundary conditions. The models will be useful for the future development of TMDLs for temperature, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen and for assessing the role of natural and anthropogenic sources of heat, oxygen-producing and -consuming substances, and nutrients in the Klamath, Shasta, and Lost Rivers.

Scientific Investigations Report

Fault segmentation: New concepts from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

The question of whether structural segment boundaries along multisegment normal faults such as the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) act as persistent barriers to rupture is critical to seismic hazard analyses. We synthesized late Holocene paleoseismic data from 20 trench sites along the central WFZ to evaluate earthquake rupture length and fault segmentation. For the youngest (<3 ka) and best-constrained earthquakes, differences in earthquake timing across prominent primary segment boundaries, especially for the most recent earthquakes on the north-central WFZ, are consistent with segment-controlled ruptures. However, broadly constrained earthquake times, dissimilar event times along the segments, the presence of smaller-scale (subsegment) boundaries, and areas of complex faulting permit partial-segment and multisegment (e.g., spillover) ruptures that are shorter (~20–40 km) or longer (~60–100 km) than the primary segment lengths (35–59 km). We report a segmented WFZ model that includes 24 earthquakes since ~7 ka and yields mean estimates of recurrence (1.1–1.3 kyr) and vertical slip rate (1.3–2.0 mm/yr) for the segments. However, additional rupture scenarios that include segment boundary spatial uncertainties, floating earthquakes, and multisegment ruptures are necessary to fully address epistemic uncertainties in rupture length. We compare the central WFZ to paleoseismic and historical surface ruptures in the Basin and Range Province and central Italian Apennines and conclude that displacement profiles have limited value for assessing the persistence of segment boundaries but can aid in interpreting prehistoric spillover ruptures. Our comparison also suggests that the probabilities of shorter and longer ruptures on the WFZ need to be investigated.

Utah

'Is Ash Falling?', an online ashfall reporting tool in support of improved ashfall warnings and investigations of ashfall processes

The primary volcano hazard in Alaska is airborne ash, which endangers aircraft flying the busy North Pacific air routes and consequently affects global commerce. Downwind ashfall is also a significant threat to commerce, transportation and day-to-day activities in nearby Alaska communities. A web-enabled database, "Is Ash Falling?" has been developed to collect ashfall observations and encourage sample collections from the public during eruptions, enabling volcano observatory staff to concentrate on eruption response. Knowing the locations of filed ashfall reports improves public ashfall warnings and forecasts by providing on-the-ground checks for ash dispersion and fallout computer models and satellite imagery interpretation. Reports of ashfall are shared with emergency management agencies and the wider public. These reports also give scientists a more complete record of the amount, duration and other conditions of ashfall.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Simulation of the impacts of spring diversions on streamflow in the Strawberry Creek watershed, San Bernardino County, California, using an integrated hydrological model

The Strawberry Creek watershed, situated in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the impact of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this watershed. In this study we constructed the Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model (SCIHM) to increase this understanding. The SCIHM is an integrated surface runoff and groundwater model that uses the coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model (GSFLOW), which is based on the integration of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the modular groundwater flow model commonly called MODFLOW, version MODFLOW-2005 software to simulate surface runoff and infiltration and groundwater flow. The model has three layers, 263 rows, and 176 columns. The model area includes the Strawberry Creek and four adjacent watersheds. The PRMS model was calibrated using two streamflow gaging stations and the GSFLOW model was calibrated to reported spring diversion discharge and a sparse number of groundwater-level measurements. The SCIHM was run with and without diversions active and simulated streamflow was compared, finding that in the headwaters of Strawberry Creek about 35 percent of the diversion flow was captured from base flow.

EarthArXiv