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USGS2023

A river basin spatial model to quantitively advance understanding of riverine tree response dynamics to water availability and hydrological management

Ecological condition continues to decline in arid and semi-arid river basins globally due to hydrological over-abstraction combined with changing climatic conditions. Whilst provision of water for the environment has been a primary approach to alleviate ecological decline, how to accurately monitor changes in riverine trees at fine spatial and temporal scales, remains a substantial challenge. This is further complicated by constantly changing water availability across expansive river basins with varying climatic zones. Within, we combine rare, fine-scale, high frequency temporal in-situ field collected data with machine learning and remote sensing, to provide a robust model that enables broadscale monitoring of physiological tree water stress response to environmental changes via actual evapotranspiration (ET). Physiological variation of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (River Red Gum) and E. largiflorens (Black Box) trees across 10 study locations in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, was captured instantaneously using sap flow sensors, substantially reducing tree response lags encountered by monitoring visual canopy changes. Actual ET measurement of both species was used to bias correct a national spatial ET product where a Random Forest model was trained using continuous timeseries of in-situ data of up to four years. Precise monthly AMLETT ( A ustralia-wide M achine L earning ET for T rees) ET outputs in 30 m pixel resolution from 2012 to 2021, were derived by incorporating additional remote sensing layers such as soil moisture, land surface temperature, radiation and EVI and NDVI in the Random Forest model. Landsat and Sentinal-2 correlation results between in-situ ET and AMLETT ET returned R 2 of 0.94 (RMSE 6.63 mm period −1 ) and 0.92 (RMSE 6.89 mm period −1 ), respectively. In comparison, correlation between in-situ ET and a national ET product returned R 2 of 0.44 (RMSE 34.08 mm period −1 ) highlighting the need for bias correction to generate accurate absolute ET values. The AMLETT method presented here, enhances environmental management in river basins worldwide. Such robust broadscale monitoring can inform water accounting and importantly, assist decisions on where to prioritize water for the environment to restore and protect key ecological assets and preserve floodplain and riparian ecological function.

The Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future streamflow in seven water resource regions in the southwestern U.S. using a new SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model. We present streamflow projections corresponding to input data from seven climate models and two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for three, thirty-year intervals centered on the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, and for a historical thirty year interval centered on the 1990s. Across water resource regions, about half of the RCP4.5 models (51%) and two thirds of the RCP8.5 models (67%) indicate decreases in streamflow in the 2080s relative to the historical period. Models project maximum decreases in streamflow of 36–80% in all water resource regions for all periods and RCPs relative to historical streamflow, and maximum streamflow decreases of up to 20–45% in the 2080s at sites along the Colorado River used for measuring compliance with interstate and international water agreements. Headwaters are projected to experience the greatest declines, with substantial downstream implications. Among these estimates, the streamflows from models forced with RCP8.5 tend to be lower than those forced with RCP4.5. Not all climate models, times, and RCPs project widespread streamflow declines. The most ubiquitous streamflow increases are projected to occur in the 2030s under RCP4.5. Later time periods and enhanced greenhouse gas forcings indicate smaller regions of streamflow increase and lower accumulated streamflows, suggesting that limiting or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations could support future water availability. Although some possible streamflow increases are promising, the modest and spatially limited increases in streamflow projected for later time periods are still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the projected water demand. These results inform the likelihood of future water agreement compliance, and support developing strategies to balance water supply and demand.

Arizona, California, Colorado Idaho, Nevada, New M↗

USGS2015

Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2025

Are we heading towards a global decrease in coregonine catches?

Coregonines have specific ecological needs, making them potentially very vulnerable to changes in lake conditions. A contemporary concern is that many lakes worldwide are experiencing environmental changes due to anthropogenic pressure and climate warming. Here, we compiled long-term data of coregonine catches from 27 lakes from three continents in the northern hemisphere. Declines in catch were observed in 67% of the lakes during the first two decades of the 21 st century, with a significant trend (p-value<0.05) in 44% of the cases. An analysis to determine whether trends are globally linked to environmental conditions and specific lake attributes was carried out on 26 lakes for the period 2000–2019. Several local declines in catches had already been documented in the literature and are likely to be due to local forcing such as nutrients, species invasions and changes in fishing practices. Nevertheless, on a global scale, our results indicate that lakes, which exhibited a significant decrease in catch were larger and more nutrient-poor than other lakes. The rate of change in catches appeared to be related to the trophic state of the lake. The specific effect of warming is difficult to determine during the studied period. When warming occurred outside the period of egg incubation, decreasing trends were more frequently observed in nutrient-poor than in mesotrophic lakes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that achieving oligo- or ultraoligotrophic conditions, as required in developed countries to control phytoplankton blooms and enhance water quality, could pose significant challenges for future management of coregonine fisheries.

International Journal of Limnology↗

USGS2015

End-of-winter snow depth variability on glaciers in Alaska

A quantitative understanding of snow thickness and snow water equivalent (SWE) on glaciers is essential to a wide range of scientific and resource management topics. However, robust SWE estimates are observationally challenging, in part because SWE can vary abruptly over short distances in complex terrain due to interactions between topography and meteorological processes. In spring 2013, we measured snow accumulation on several glaciers around the Gulf of Alaska using both ground- and helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar surveys, complemented by extensive ground truth observations. We found that SWE can be highly variable (40% difference) over short spatial scales (tens to hundreds of meters), especially in the ablation zone where the underlying ice surfaces are typically rough. Elevation provides the dominant basin-scale influence on SWE, with gradients ranging from 115 to 400 mm/100 m. Regionally, total accumulation and the accumulation gradient are strongly controlled by a glacier's distance from the coastal moisture source. Multiple linear regressions, used to calculate distributed SWE fields, show that robust results require adequate sampling of the true distribution of multiple terrain parameters. Final SWE estimates (comparable to winter balances) show reasonable agreement with both the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model climate data set (9–36% difference) and the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Benchmark Glaciers (6–36% difference). All the glaciers in our study exhibit substantial sensitivity to changing snow-rain fractions, regardless of their location in a coastal or continental climate. While process-based SWE projections remain elusive, the collection of ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-derived data sets provides a greatly enhanced perspective on the spatial distribution of SWE and will pave the way for future work that may eventually allow such projections.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in the American Southwest. Since the frequency and severity of hydrologic droughts and other hydroclimatic events are of critical importance to the ecology and rapidly growing human population of this region, knowledge of long-term natural hydroclimatic variability is valuable for resource managers and policy-makers. An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 824–2007 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern white pine) and Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) for the Jemez Mountains in Northern New Mexico. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1896–2007 show a high level of skill, and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (>50%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1896–2007). A recent segment of the reconstruction (2000–2006) emerges as the driest 7-year period sensed by the trees in the entire record. That this period was only moderately dry in precipitation anomaly likely indicates accentuated stress from other factors, such as warmer temperatures. Correlation field maps of actual and reconstructed October–June total precipitation, sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights show characteristics that are similar to those indicative of El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 1184-year reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in Northern New Mexico, is useful to guide expectations of future variability, aids sustainable water management, provides scenarios for drought planning and as inputs for hydrologic models under a broader range of conditions than those provided by historical climate records.

New Mexico↗

USGS1998

Quantitative controls on location and architecture of carbonate depositional sequences: upper miocene, cabo de gata region, se Spain

Sequence stratigraphy, pinning-point relative sea-level curves, and magnetostratigraphy provide the quantitative data necessary to understand how rates of sea-level change and different substrate paleoslopes are dominant controls on accumulation rate, carbonate depositional sequence location, and internal architecture. Five third-order (1-10 my) and fourth-order (0.1-1.0 my) upper Miocene carbonate depositional sequences (DS1A, DS1B, DS2, DS3, TCC) formed with superimposed higher-frequency sea-level cycles in an archipelago setting in SE Spain. Overall, our study indicates when areas of high substrate slope (>15 degrees ) are in shallow water, independent of climate, the location and internal architecture of carbonate deposits are not directly linked to sea-level position but, instead, are controlled by location of gently sloping substrates and processes of bypass. In contrast, if carbonate sediments are generated where substrates of low slope (<15 degrees in our area) are in shallow water, then architecture and location of deposits may be more directly controlled by the relative position of sea level. For these systems, the rates of relative sea-level change are important for determining which systems tracts develop. DS1A-DS1B, cooler-water ramps, result from sediment bypass across steep paleoslopes to toes of slopes. Accumulation rates decreased from >15.6 cm/ky to approximately 2 cm/ky and overall relative sea level rose at rates of 17-21.4 cm/ky. Higher frequency sea-level rates were about 111 to more than 260 cm/ky, producing onlapping, fining- (deepening-) upward cycles. Decreasing accumulation rates resulted from decreasing surface area for shallow-water sediment production, drowning of shallow-water substrates, and complex sediment dispersal related to the archipelago setting. Typical systems tract and parasequence development should not be expected in "bypass ramp" settings; facies of onlapping strata do not track base level and are likely to be significantly different compared to onlapping strata associated with coastal onlap. Basal and upper DS2 reef megabreccias (indicating the transition from cool to warmer climatic conditions) were eroded from steep upslope positions and redeposited downslope onto areas of gentle substrate during rapid sea-level falls (>22.7 cm/ky) of short duration. Such rapid sea-level falls and presence of steep slopes are not conducive to formation of forced regressive systems tracts composed of down-stepping reef clinoforms. The DS3 reefal platform formed where shallow water coincided with gently sloping substrates created by earlier deposition. Slow progradation (0.39-1.45 km/my) is best explained by the lack of an extensive bank top, progressively falling sea level, and low productivity resulting from siliciclastic debris and excess nutrients shed from nearby volcanic islands. Although DS3 strata were deposited during a third-order relative sea-level cycle, a typical transgressive systems tract is not recognizable, indicating that the initial relative rise in sea level was too rapid (>>19 cm/ky). Downstepping reefs, forming a forced regressive systems tract, were deposited during the relative sea-level fall at the end of DS3, indicating that relatively slow rates of fall (10 cm/ky or less) over favorable paleoslope conditions are conducive to generation of forced regressive systems tracts consisting of downstepping reef clinoforms. The TCC sequence consists of four shallow-water sedimentary cycles that were deposited during a 400 ky to 100 ky time span. Such shallow-water cycles, typical of many platforms, form only where shallow water intersects gently sloping substrates. The relative thicknesses of cycles (<2 m to 15 m thick), magnitudes of relative sea-level fluctuations associated with each cycle (25-30 m), high rates of relative sea-level fluctuations (minimum of 25-120 cm/ky), and the widespread distribution of similar TCC cycles in the Mediterranean and elsewhere are supportive of a glacio-eustatic influence. With rates of sea-level change so high, typical systems tracts do not form.

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗

USGS2024

Using environmental DNA to assess the response of steelhead/Rainbow Trout and Coastrange Sculpin populations to postfire debris flows in coastal streams of Big Sur, California

Objective Debris flows are among the most extreme disturbances to streams and are predicted to become more frequent under climate change. We assessed the response of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout)/Rainbow Trout (hereafter, collectively referred to as O. mykiss ) and Coastrange Sculpin Cottus aleuticus populations to major postfire debris flows in two small coastal basins of California using noninvasive environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling. Methods We analyzed water samples from disturbed reaches for eDNA in the first two summers after debris flows. In Big Creek, all Coastrange Sculpin habitat was disturbed by debris flows, but a major tributary occupied by O. mykiss was not affected. In Mill Creek, all available habitat for both species was disturbed. We also sampled two unburned basins as undisturbed reference streams. Result In Big Creek, O. mykiss eDNA was detected in all water samples during both years, and concentrations in some samples approached the lowest concentrations in the reference streams. Coastrange Sculpin eDNA was detected only in a single water sample in the first year and was not detected in the second year. In Mill Creek, neither species was detected in the first year, but during the second year, O. mykiss eDNA was detected at very low concentrations in 40% of samples and Coastrange Sculpin eDNA was detected in a single sample. Conclusion Our results indicate that O. mykiss and Coastrange Sculpins either survived in or quickly reoccupied the disturbed reaches from within the basins. However, the detection rates for cases in which all habitat for a species in a basin was affected by debris flows indicate that abundances were very low, suggesting that persistence may be uncertain unless there is successful reproduction or immigration. Finally, eDNA appears to be effective for monitoring sensitive fish populations after a major disturbance; however, detection rates in individual samples may be low and require appropriate sampling designs to achieve the desired detection probability.

California↗

USGS2023

Hypoxia and anoxia tolerance in diploid and triploid eastern oysters at high temperature

Increasing reliance on the use of triploid oysters to support aquaculture production relies on their generally superior growth rate and meat quality over that of diploid oysters. Reports of elevated triploid mortality have generated questions about potential trade-offs between growth and tolerance to environmental stressors. These questions are particularly relevant as climate change, coastal activities, and river management impact water salinity, temperature, nutrients, pH, and oxygen levels within key estuarine oyster growing areas. In particular, the co-occurrence of warm water temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) events are increasingly reported in estuaries, with potentially lethal impacts on sessile, oyster resources. To investigate potential differences in DO tolerance, diploid and triploid market-sized or seed oysters were exposed to continuous normoxia (DO > 5.0 mg L –1 ), hypoxia (DO < 2.0 mg L –1 ), and anoxia (DO < 0.5 mg L –1 ) at 28°C and their mortalities were monitored. The hemolymph of the market-sized oysters was collected to measure cellular and biochemical changes in response to hypoxia and anoxia, whereas their valve movements were also measured. In general, about half of market-sized oysters died within about 1 wk under anoxia (LT 50 : 5.7–8.9 days) and within about 2 wk under hypoxia (LT 50 : 11.9–19.4 days) with diploid oysters tending to die faster than triploid oysters. Seed oysters took longer to die than market-sized oysters under both anoxia (LT 50 : 9.5–12.1 days) and hypoxia (LT 50 : 21.8–25.0 days) with diploid oysters (LT 50 : 9.5–11.8 days) dying slightly faster than triploid oysters (LT 50 : 11.8–12.1 days) under anoxia. Hemolymph pH decreased and plasma calcium and glutathione concentrations increased with decreasing DO, with values under anoxia being different than those under normoxia. Hemocyte density was also lower under anoxia than under either normoxia or hypoxia. Overall, few differences in physiological responses to hypoxia and anoxia were found between diploid and triploid oysters suggesting that ploidy (2N versus 3N) had limited effect on the tolerance and response of eastern oysters to low DO.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

USGS2012

Soil property control of biogeochemical processes beneath two subtropical stormwater infiltration basins

Substantially different biogeochemical processes affecting nitrogen fate and transport were observed beneath two stormwater infiltration basins in north-central Florida. Differences are related to soil textural properties that deeply link hydroclimatic conditions with soil moisture variations in a humid, subtropical climate. During 2008, shallow groundwater beneath the basin with predominantly clayey soils (median, 41% silt+clay) exhibited decreases in dissolved oxygen from 3.8 to 0.1 mg L -1 and decreases in nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 - –N) from 2.7 mg L -1 to <0.016 mg L -1 , followed by manganese and iron reduction, sulfate reduction, and methanogenesis. In contrast, beneath the basin with predominantly sandy soils (median, 2% silt+clay), aerobic conditions persisted from 2007 through 2009 (dissolved oxygen, 5.0–7.8 mg L -1 ), resulting in NO 3 - –N of 1.3 to 3.3 mg L -1 in shallow groundwater. Enrichment of d15N and d18O of NO 3 - combined with water chemistry data indicates denitrification beneath the clayey basin and relatively conservative NO 3 - transport beneath the sandy basin. Soil-extractable NO 3 - –N was significantly lower and the copper-containing nitrite reductase gene density was significantly higher beneath the clayey basin. Differences in moisture retention capacity between fine- and coarse-textured soils resulted in median volumetric gas-phase contents of 0.04 beneath the clayey basin and 0.19 beneath the sandy basin, inhibiting surface/subsurface oxygen exchange beneath the clayey basin. Results can inform development of soil amendments to maintain elevated moisture content in shallow soils of stormwater infiltration basins, which can be incorporated in improved best management practices to mitigate NO 3 - impacts.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Estimated seepage rates from selected ditches, ponds, and lakes at the Camas National Wildlife Refuge, eastern Idaho

The Camas National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) in eastern Idaho, established in 1937, contains wetlands, ponds, and wet meadows that are essential resting and feeding habitat for migratory birds and nesting habitat for waterfowl. Initially, natural sources of water supported these habitats. However, during the past few decades, changes in climate and surrounding land use have altered and reduced natural groundwater and surface-water inflows, resulting in a 5-meter decline in the water table and an earlier, and more frequent, occurrence of no flow in Camas Creek at the Refuge. Due to these changes in water availability, water management that includes extensive groundwater pumping is now necessary to maintain the wetlands, ponds, and wet meadows. These water management activities have proven to be inefficient and expensive, and the Refuge is seeking alternative water-management options that are more efficient and less expensive. More efficient water management at the Refuge may be possible through knowledge of the seepage rates from ditches, ponds, and lakes at the Refuge. With this knowledge, water-management efficiency may be improved by natural means through selective use of water bodies with the smallest seepage rates or through engineering efforts to minimize seepage losses from water bodies with the largest seepage rates. The U.S. Geological Survey performed field studies in 2015 and 2016 to estimate seepage rates for selected ditches, ponds, and lakes at the Refuge. Estimated seepage rates from ponds and lakes ranged over an order of magnitude, from 3.4 ± 0.2 to 103.0 ± 0.5 mm/d, with larger seepage rates calculated for Big Pond and Redhead Pond, intermediate seepage rates calculated for Two-way Pond, and smaller seepages rates calculated for the south arm of Sandhole Lake. Estimated seepage losses from two reaches of Main Diversion Ditch were 21 ± 2 and 17 ± 2 percent/km. These losses represent seepage rates of about 890 and 860 mm/d, which are one- to two-orders-of-magnitude larger than seepage rates from the ponds and lake. The depth-integrated vertical hydraulic conductivity ( K v ) for sediment underlying the ponds and lake was the primary control of seepage rates. The K v 's were 30 and 34 m/d for Big Pond, 14 and 18 m/d for Toomey Pond, 8 and 10 m/d for Two-way Pond, and 47 m/d for the north arm of Sandhole Lake.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Developing species-age cohorts from forest inventory and analysis data to parameterize a forest landscape model

Simulating long-term, landscape level changes in forest composition requires estimates of stand age to initialize succession models. Detailed stand ages are rarely available, and even general information on stand history often is lacking. We used data from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to estimate broad age classes for a forested landscape to simulate changes in landscape composition and structure relative to climate change at Fort Drum, a 43,000 ha U.S. Army installation in northwestern New York. Using simple linear regression, we developed relationships between tree diameter and age for FIA site trees from the host and adjacent ecoregions and applied those relationships to forest stands at Fort Drum. We observed that approximately half of the variation in age was explained by diameter breast height (DBH) across all species studied ( r 2 = 0.42 for sugar maple Acer saccharum to 0.63 for white ash Fraxinus americana ). We then used age-diameter relationships from published research on northern hardwood species to calibrate results from the FIA-based analysis. With predicted stand age, we used tree species life histories and environmental conditions represented by ecological site types to parameterize a stochastic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to spatially and temporally model successional changes in forest communities at Fort Drum. Forest stands modeled over 100 years without significant disturbance appeared to reflect expected patterns of increasing dominance by shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species such as sugar maple, red maple ( Acer rubrum ), and eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) where soil moisture was sufficient. On drier sandy soils, eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), red pine ( P. resinosa ), northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ), and white oak ( Q. alba ) continued to be important components throughout the modeling period with no net loss at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that despite abundant precipitation and relatively low evapotranspiration rates for the region, low soil water holding capacity and fertility may be limiting factors for the spread of mesophytic species on excessively drained soils in the region. Increasing atmospheric temperatures projected for the region could alter moisture regimes for many coarse-textured soils providing a possible mechanism for expansion of xerophytic tree species.

New York↗

USGS2019

Size distributions of Arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time

Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km 2 (100 m 2 ) to 1 km 2 . We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size ( R 2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Inferring tidal wetland stability from channel sediment fluxes: observations and a conceptual model

Anthropogenic and climatic forces have modified the geomorphology of tidal wetlands over a range of timescales. Changes in land use, sediment supply, river flow, storminess, and sea level alter the layout of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plains; these elements define wetland complexes. Diagnostically, measurements of net sediment fluxes through tidal channels are high-temporal resolution, spatially integrated quantities that indicate (1) whether a complex is stable over seasonal timescales and (2) what mechanisms are leading to that state. We estimated sediment fluxes through tidal channels draining wetland complexes on the Blackwater and Transquaking Rivers, Maryland, USA. While the Blackwater complex has experienced decades of degradation and been largely converted to open water, the Transquaking complex has persisted as an expansive, vegetated marsh. The measured net export at the Blackwater complex (1.0 kg/s or 0.56 kg/m 2 /yr over the landward marsh area) was caused by northwesterly winds, which exported water and sediment on the subtidal timescale; tidally forced net fluxes were weak and precluded landward transport of suspended sediment from potential seaward sources. Though wind forcing also exported sediment at the Transquaking complex, strong tidal forcing and proximity to a turbidity maximum led to an import of sediment (0.031 kg/s or 0.70 kg/m 2 /yr). This resulted in a spatially averaged accretion of 3.9 mm/yr, equaling the regional relative sea level rise. Our results suggest that in areas where seaward sediment supply is dominant, seaward wetlands may be more capable of withstanding sea level rise over the short term than landward wetlands. We propose a conceptual model to determine a complex's tendency toward stability or instability based on sediment source, wetland channel location, and transport mechanisms. Wetlands with a reliable portfolio of sources and transport mechanisms appear better suited to offset natural and anthropogenic loss.

Maryl↗

USGS2008

Modeling the evolution of channel shape: Balancing computational efficiency with hydraulic fidelity

The cross-sectional shape of a natural river channel controls the capacity of the system to carry water off a landscape, to convey sediment derived from hillslopes, and to erode its bed and banks. Numerical models that describe the response of a landscape to changes in climate or tectonics therefore require formulations that can accommodate evolution of channel cross-sectional geometry. However, fully two-dimensional (2-D) flow models are too computationally expensive to implement in large-scale landscape evolution models, while available simple empirical relationships between width and discharge do not adequately capture the dynamics of channel adjustment. We have developed a simplified 2-D numerical model of channel evolution in a cohesive, detachment-limited substrate subject to steady, unidirectional flow. Erosion is assumed to be proportional to boundary shear stress, which is calculated using an approximation of the flow field in which log-velocity profiles are assumed to apply along vectors that are perpendicular to the local channel bed. Model predictions of the velocity structure, peak boundary shear stress, and equilibrium channel shape compare well with predictions of a more sophisticated but more computationally demanding ray-isovel model. For example, the mean velocities computed by the two models are consistent to within ???3%, and the predicted peak shear stress is consistent to within ???7%. Furthermore, the shear stress distributions predicted by our model compare favorably with available laboratory measurements for prescribed channel shapes. A modification to our simplified code in which the flow includes a high-velocity core allows the model to be extended to estimate shear stress distributions in channels with large width-to-depth ratios. Our model is efficient enough to incorporate into large-scale landscape evolution codes and can be used to examine how channels adjust both cross-sectional shape and slope in response to tectonic and climatic forcing. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2026

Overstorey mortality promotes juvenile piñon pine growth during favourable weather at cooler, wetter sites

Hotter droughts have resulted in widespread tree die-off events globally, frequently leading to regeneration failure. Dry forest recovery often depends on the growth and survival of extant juvenile trees. However, it is unclear how microenvironmental changes following overstorey tree die-off affect juvenile trees, particularly in dryland systems where tree recruitment is typically limited by water availability and heat stress. We simulated an overstorey tree die-off event by girdling trees in piñon-juniper woodlands across the south-western United States. We sampled juvenile piñon pine growth from live and dead overstorey treatments across six study sites spanning a regional latitudinal gradient and local elevational gradients. We examined how juvenile branch and needle growth differed between live and dead overstorey treatments, and whether responses varied with weather conditions and juvenile tree size following overstorey mortality. We found greater juvenile branch and needle growth under dead compared with live overstorey trees for 2 years following overstorey mortality at mid- and high-elevation sites which are typically cooler and wetter than the other sites. These observed growth releases were contingent on favourable post-mortality weather conditions. Higher growth under dead overstorey occurred at sites experiencing near-average climatic water deficits compared with sites experiencing above-average climatic water deficits. Growth at all sites increased from the first to second year after overstorey mortality. Across sites, growth was unrelated to juvenile tree size. Synthesis . Our results underscore differentiation in juvenile responses to overstorey tree die-off driven by local site conditions and weather across the range of Pinus edulis . Overstorey mortality resulted in consistently higher juvenile growth only at climatically favourable sites and during favourable weather, while unmeasured microsite differences could help account for variation observed at the hottest and driest site. Results from less climatically favourable sites suggest that overstorey trees neither directly limit nor facilitate juvenile growth, though further study over longer timeframes is needed to resolve the pace and magnitude of potential recovery or decline. Overall, juvenile vigour may be promoted following overstorey mortality only in a narrow spatial (site) and temporal (weather) environmental context, suggesting additional vulnerabilities for piñon populations under more arid conditions.

Arizona, Colorado↗

USGS1981

Progradational sequences in Miocene shoreline deposits, southeastern Caliente Range, California

An exceptionally well exposed marine-nonmarine transition in middle Miocene strata exists in the southeastern Caliente Range, California. About 50 individual progradational sequences form a succession that ranges in thickness from approximately 1000 m (where predominantly nonmarine) to more than 2500 m (where predominantly marine). Paleogreographic evidence in basalt flows near the top of the succession and in overlying fluvial deposists indicates that these middle Miocene strata were deposited across a north-northwest trending shoreline. A complete progradational sequence typically is several meters to a few tens of meters thick and includes strata that represent three intertonguing stratigraphic units. Individual sequences generally rest on a thin gravel deposit interpreted as a transgressive lag on an erosional surface. The gravel is overlain by structureless siltstone or fine-grained sandstone deposited at water depths where the rate of faunal mixing exceeded that of production of structures by physical processes. These rocks grade upward into bedded fine sandstone deposited closer to shore where physical processes exceeded bioturbation. Crossbedded lenses of coarse sand or fine gravel in the upper part of this facies suggest the presence of failry long-period surface waves. The bedded fine sandstone is sharply overlain by a crossbedded coarse sandstone facies that is interpreted as a combined offshore bar-rip channel-surf zone assemblage. Cross-strata dip dominantly offshore, suggesting substantial deposition from rip currents. A secondary, shore=parallel mode of cross-strata direction suggests longshore currents produced by surface waves from the northwest. The crossbedded coarse-grained sandstone grades upward into planar-bedded medium-grained sandstone that is interpreted as a beach foreshore. This facies grades upward through structureless medium-grained sandstone into nonmarine or lagoonal red and green mudstone of the Caliente Formation. The middle Miocene succession was deposited in a subsiding basin that was otherwise remarkably stable tectonically; the position of the strand line differed no more than a few kilometers through a period of 1 to 3 m.y. The average duration of the transgressive-regressive cycles, a few tens of thousands of years, together with their distribution in groups of three or four in the lower two-thirds of the succession, is consistent with the pattern of long-term climatic cycles produced by periodicity of the earth's solar orbit and may be related to eustatic sea level changes attendant to the development of the Antarctic ice cap. Changes in the pattern of progradation in the upper part of the succession and nearby basaltic eruptions may hav been precursors to the onset of movement along the San Andreas fault in this area 12-14 m.y. ago.

California↗

USGS2021

Species mixture effects and climate influence growth, recruitment and mortality in Interior West USA Populus tremuloides-conifer communities

Tree-species mixture effects (e.g. complementarity and facilitation) have been found to increase individual-tree productivity, lessen mortality and improve recruitment in forests worldwide. By promoting more efficient and complete resource use, mixture effects may also lessen individual-tree-level water stress, thus improving drought resistance. We investigated the influence of mixture effects on tree productivity, mortality and recruitment across broad compositional and moisture gradients in high-elevation Interior West US mixed-conifer communities, where Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen) is the major contributor to functional diversity. Our goal was to provide a more complete scientific foundation for managing these drought-prone, fire-excluded systems under an uncertain climate. We used landscape-scale national forest inventory data to examine mixture effects on P. tremuloides and the major associated conifer species, Pseudotsuga menziesii , Pinus contorta , Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii . Using generalized linear mixed modelling, we isolated the influences of P. tremuloides relative density and climate on tree-level (stems ≥ 12.7 cm DBH) growth, mortality and stand-level recruitment (presence/absence of new trees). Cold-season precipitation (PPT) and warm-season vapour pressure deficit (VPD) served to represent soil moisture supply and demand, respectively. Populus tremuloides growth declined as interspecific density increased. In contrast, Pinus contorta and A. lasiocarpa growth increased with P. tremuloides density. For all species except A. lasiocarpa and P. menziesii, growth increased under higher PPT and VPD. Populus tremuloides mortality increased under high VPD but not with interspecific relative density. We found limited evidence that A. lasiocarpa mortality decreased as P. tremuloides density increased. Populus tremuloides recruitment declined steeply above 25% interspecific relative density. We found a decline in conifer recruitment odds as P. tremuloides density increased, ranging from strong in P. contorta to insubstantial in P. engelmannii . Synthesis . Our findings have implications for sustaining mixed-conifer communities impacted by climate change and historical fire exclusion. Mixtures of P. tremuloides and conifers may improve conifer growth while adversely impacting P. tremuloides growth relative to pure stands. Higher conifer productivity combined with lower P. tremuloides recruitment at high conifer relative density may accelerate succession.

Journal of Ecology↗