Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Global Environmental Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources
USGS2016

A century of landscape disturbance and urbanization of the San Francisco Bay region affects the present-day genetic diversity of the California Ridgway’s rail (Rallus obsoletus obsoletus)

Fragmentation and loss of natural habitat have important consequences for wild populations and can negatively affect long-term viability and resilience to environmental change. Salt marsh obligate species, such as those that occupy the San Francisco Bay Estuary in western North America, occupy already impaired habitats as result of human development and modifications and are highly susceptible to increased habitat loss and fragmentation due to global climate change. We examined the genetic variation of the California Ridgway’s rail ( Rallus obsoletus obsoletus ), a state and federally endangered species that occurs within the fragmented salt marsh of the San Francisco Bay Estuary. We genotyped 107 rails across 11 microsatellite loci and a single mitochondrial gene to estimate genetic diversity and population structure among seven salt marsh fragments and assessed demographic connectivity by inferring patterns of gene flow and migration rates. We found pronounced genetic structuring among four geographically separate genetic clusters across the San Francisco Bay. Gene flow analyses supported a stepping stone model of gene flow from south-to-north. However, contemporary gene flow among the regional embayments was low. Genetic diversity among occupied salt marshes and genetic clusters were not significantly different. We detected low effective population sizes and significantly high relatedness among individuals within salt marshes. Preserving genetic diversity and connectivity throughout the San Francisco Bay may require attention to salt marsh restoration in the Central Bay where habitat is both most limited and most fragmented. Incorporating periodic genetic sampling into the management regime may help evaluate population trends and guide long-term management priorities.

California↗
USGS2014

1.13 – Emerging contaminants

Since the Industrial Revolution, a diversity of large-scale chemical innovations has impacted aquatic systems in urban environments. Beginning in the 1990s, there has been a growing scientific interest and public awareness of the effects of the chemicals used in domestic, commercial, industrial, and agricultural applications, referred to in this article as ‘emerging contaminants’ (ECs), on ecosystem and human health. The growing global population and its increasing demands on water supplies in conjunction with climate-induced changes in hydrologic regimes place stress on freshwater resources, resulting in a greater reliance on reuse of reclaimed municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents to meet human and environmental needs. WWTP effluents are a major source of ECs, and it is important to have an understanding of the chemical composition of the reclaimed water, because many ECs are biologically active and the effects of chronic exposure to low concentration complex mixtures are unknown. Several classes of ECs that have been shown to be widespread in the aquatic environment are discussed in this chapter, including surfactants, complexing agents, fragrances, antimicrobials, industrial chemicals, pharmaceuticals, natural and synthetic estrogens, and disinfection byproducts. All of these compounds are biologically active via a variety of modes of action, and can occur in aquatic systems at concentrations ranging from <0.001 to >100 μg l −1 .

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Microbial assemblages reflect environmental heterogeneity in alpine streams

Alpine streams are dynamic habitats harboring substantial biodiversity across small spatial extents. The diversity of alpine stream biota is largely reflective of environmental heterogeneity stemming from varying hydrological sources. Globally, alpine stream diversity is under threat as meltwater sources recede and stream conditions become increasingly homogeneous. Much attention has been devoted to macroinvertebrate diversity in alpine headwaters, yet to fully understand the breadth of climate change threats, a more thorough accounting of microbial diversity is needed. We characterized microbial diversity (specifically Bacteria and Archaea) of 13 streams in two disjunct Rocky Mountain subranges through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Our study encompassed the spectrum of alpine stream sources (glaciers, snowfields, subterranean ice, and groundwater) and three microhabitats (ice, biofilms, and streamwater). We observed no difference in regional (γ) diversity between subranges but substantial differences in diversity among (β) stream types and microhabitats. Within‐stream (α) diversity was highest in groundwater‐fed springs, lowest in glacier‐fed streams, and positively correlated with water temperature for both streamwater and biofilm assemblages. We identified an underappreciated alpine stream type—the icy seep—that are fed by subterranean ice, exhibit cold temperatures (summer mean <2°C), moderate bed stability, and relatively high conductivity. Icy seeps will likely be important for combatting biodiversity losses as they contain similar microbial assemblages to streams fed by surface ice yet may be buffered against climate change by insulating debris cover. Our results show that the patterns of microbial diversity support an ominous trend for alpine stream biodiversity; as meltwater sources decline, stream communities will become more diverse locally, but regional diversity will be lost. Icy seeps, however, represent a source of optimism for the future of biodiversity in these imperiled ecosystems.

Montana↗
USGS2010

Nitrous oxide emission from denitrification in stream and river networks

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction. Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loading to river networks is a potentially important source of N 2 O via microbial denitrification that converts N to N 2 O and dinitrogen (N 2 ). The fraction of denitrified N that escapes as N 2 O rather than N 2 (i.e., the N 2 O yield) is an important determinant of how much N 2 O is produced by river networks, but little is known about the N 2 O yield in flowing waters. Here, we present the results of whole-stream 15 N-tracer additions conducted in 72 headwater streams draining multiple land-use types across the United States. We found that stream denitrification produces N 2 O at rates that increase with stream water nitrate (NO 3 − ) concentrations, but that <1% of denitrified N is converted to N 2 O. Unlike some previous studies, we found no relationship between the N 2 O yield and stream water NO 3 − . We suggest that increased stream NO 3 − loading stimulates denitrification and concomitant N 2 O production, but does not increase the N 2 O yield. In our study, most streams were sources of N 2 O to the atmosphere and the highest emission rates were observed in streams draining urban basins. Using a global river network model, we estimate that microbial N transformations (e.g., denitrification and nitrification) convert at least 0.68 Tg·y −1 of anthropogenic N inputs to N 2 O in river networks, equivalent to 10% of the global anthropogenic N 2 O emission rate. This estimate of stream and river N 2 O emissions is three times greater than estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Humans have more than doubled the availability of fixed nitrogen (N) in the biosphere, particularly through the production of N fertilizers and the cultivation of N-fixing crops ( 1 ). Increasing N availability is producing unintended environmental consequences including enhanced emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas ( 2 ) and an important cause of stratospheric ozone destruction ( 3 ). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the microbial conversion of agriculturally derived N to N 2 O in soils and aquatic ecosystems is the largest source of anthropogenic N 2 O to the atmosphere ( 2 ). The production of N 2 O in agricultural soils has been the focus of intense investigation (i.e., >1,000 published studies) and is a relatively well constrained component of the N 2 O budget ( 4 ). However, emissions of anthropogenic N 2 O from streams, rivers, and estuaries have received much less attention and remain a major source of uncertainty in the global anthropogenic N 2 O budget. Microbial denitrification is a large source of N 2 O emissions in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Most microbial denitrification is a form of anaerobic respiration in which nitrate (NO 3 − , the dominant form of inorganic N) is converted to dinitrogen (N 2 ) and N 2 O gases ( 5 ). The proportion of denitrified NO 3 − that is converted to N 2 O rather than N 2 (hereafter referred to as the N 2 O yield and expressed as the mole ratio) partially controls how much N 2 O is produced via denitrification ( 6 ), but few studies provide information on the N 2 O yield in streams and rivers because of the difficulty of measuring N 2 and N 2 O production in these systems. Here we report rates of N 2 and N 2 O production via denitrification measured using whole-stream 15 NO 3 − -tracer experiments in 72 headwater streams draining different land-use types across the United States. This project, known as the second Lotic Intersite Nitrogen eXperiment (LINX II), provides unique whole-system measurements of the N 2 O yield in streams. Although N 2 O emission rates have been reported for streams and rivers ( 7 , 8 ), the N 2 O yield has been studied mostly in lentic freshwater and marine ecosystems, where it generally ranges between 0.1 and 1.0%, although yields as high as 6% have been observed ( 9 ). These N 2 O yields are low compared with observations in soils (0–100%) ( 10 ), which may be a result of the relatively lower oxygen (O 2 ) availability in the sediments of lakes and estuaries. However, dissolved O 2 in headwater streams is commonly near atmospheric equilibrium and benthic algal biofilms can produce O 2 at the sediment–water interface, resulting in strong redox gradients more akin to those in partially wetted soils. Thus, streams may have variable and often high N 2 O yields, similar to those in soils ( 11 ). The N 2 O yield in headwater streams is of particular interest because much of the NO 3 − input to rivers is derived from groundwater upwelling into headwater streams. Furthermore, headwater streams compose the majority of stream length within a drainage network and have high ratios of bioreactive benthic surface area to water volume ( 12 ).

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2017

A global database of ant species abundances

What forces structure ecological assemblages? A key limitation to general insights about assemblage structure is the availability of data that are collected at a small spatial grain (local assemblages) and a large spatial extent (global coverage). Here, we present published and unpublished data from 51,388 ant abundance and occurrence records of more than 2693 species and 7953 morphospecies from local assemblages collected at 4212 locations around the world. Ants were selected because they are diverse and abundant globally, comprise a large fraction of animal biomass in most terrestrial communities, and are key contributors to a range of ecosystem functions. Data were collected between 1949 and 2014, and include, for each geo-referenced sampling site, both the identity of the ants collected and details of sampling design, habitat type and degree of disturbance. The aim of compiling this dataset was to provide comprehensive species abundance data in order to test relationships between assemblage structure and environmental and biogeographic factors. Data were collected using a variety of standardised methods, such as pitfall and Winkler traps, and will be valuable for studies investigating large-scale forces structuring local assemblages. Understanding such relationships is particularly critical under current rates of global change. We encourage authors holding additional data on systematically collected ant assemblages, especially those in dry and cold, and remote areas, to contact us and contribute their data to this growing dataset.

Ecology↗
USGS2020

Paleoclimate ocean conditions shaped the evolution of corals and their skeletal composition through deep time

Identifying how past environmental conditions shaped the evolution of corals and their skeletal traits provides a framework for predicting their persistence and that of their non-calcifying relatives under impending global warming and ocean acidification. Here we show that ocean geochemistry, particularly aragonite–calcite seas, drives patterns of morphological evolution in anthozoans (corals, sea anemones) by examining skeletal traits in the context of a robust, time-calibrated phylogeny. The lability of skeletal composition among octocorals suggests a greater ability to adapt to changes in ocean chemistry compared with the homogeneity of the aragonitic skeleton of scleractinian corals. Pulses of diversification in anthozoans follow mass extinctions and reef crises, with sea anemones and proteinaceous corals filling empty niches as tropical reef builders went extinct. Changing environmental conditions will likely diminish aragonitic reef-building scleractinians, but the evolutionary history of the Anthozoa suggests other groups will persist and diversify in their wake.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2024

Environmental disturbances and restoration of salt marshes

Salt and brackish marshes (hereafter salt marshes) are the dominant coastal wetland in temperate and boreal intertidal settings. Human-enhanced disturbances threaten their persistence and functionality, with consequences to many ecosystem services. Restoration potentials are very site specific, varying by degree of disturbance and target goals. Global changes in climate and land-use will continue to impact salt marsh extent and function, requiring a portfolio of responses. While local responses may achieve limited target goals for salt marsh functions, preservation of current tidal wetlands and their inland migration corridors is the most viable option for maintaining a full suite of salt marsh ecosystem services, globally.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Population-level thermal performance of a cold-water ectotherm is linked to ontogeny and local environmental heterogeneity

Negative effects of global warming are predicted to be most severe for species that occupy a narrow range of temperatures, have limited dispersal abilities or have long generation times. These are characteristics typical of many species that occupy small, cold streams. Habitat use, vulnerabilities and mechanisms for coping with local conditions can differ among populations and ontogenetically within populations, potentially affecting species‐level responses to climate change. However, we still have little knowledge of mean thermal performance for many vertebrates, let alone variation in performance among populations. Assessment of these sources of variation in thermal performance is critical for projecting the effects of climate change on species and for identifying management strategies to ameliorate its effects. To gauge how populations of the Rocky Mountain tailed frog ( Ascaphus montanus ) might respond to long‐term effects of climate change, we measured the ability of tadpoles from six populations in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.) to acclimate to a range of temperatures. We compared survival among populations according to tadpole age (1 year or 2 years) and according to the mean and variance of late‐summer temperatures in natal streams. The ability of tadpoles to acclimate to warm temperatures increased with age and with variance in late‐summer temperature of natal streams. Moreover, performance differed among populations from the same catchment. Our experiments with a cold‐water species show that population‐level performance varies across small geographic scales and is linked to local environmental heterogeneity. This variation could influence the rate and mode of species‐level responses to climate change, both by facilitating local persistence in the face of changes in thermal conditions and by providing thermally tolerant colonists to neighbouring populations.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs

To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2009

Potential environmental issues of CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers: Geochemical results from the Frio-I Brine Pilot test, Texas, USA

Sedimentary basins in general, and deep saline aquifers in particular, are being investigated as possible repositories for large volumes of anthropogenic CO 2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes. To investigate the potential for the long-term storage of CO 2 in such aquifers, 1600 t of CO 2 were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-m-thick "C" sandstone unit of the Frio Formation, a regional aquifer in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained before CO 2 injection from the injection well and an observation well 30 m updip showed a Na–Ca–Cl type brine with ∼93,000 mg/L TDS at saturation with CH 4 at reservoir conditions; gas analyses showed that CH 4 comprised ∼95% of dissolved gas, but CO 2 was low at 0.3%. Following CO 2 breakthrough, 51 h after injection, samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5–5.7), pronounced increases in alkalinity (100–3000 mg/L as HCO 3 ) and in Fe (30–1100 mg/L), a slug of very high DOC values, and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H 2 O, DIC, and CH 4 . These data, coupled with geochemical modeling, indicate corrosion of pipe and well casing as well as rapid dissolution of minerals, especially calcite and iron oxyhydroxides, both caused by lowered pH (initially ∼3.0 at subsurface conditions) of the brine in contact with supercritical CO 2 . These geochemical parameters, together with perfluorocarbon tracer gases (PFTs), were used to monitor migration of the injected CO 2 into the overlying Frio “B”, composed of a 4-m-thick sandstone and separated from the “C” by ∼15 m of shale and siltstone beds. Results obtained from the Frio “B” 6 months after injection gave chemical and isotopic markers that show significant CO 2 (2.9% compared with 0.3% CO 2 in dissolved gas) migration into the “B” sandstone. Results of samples collected 15 months after injection, however, are ambiguous, and can be interpreted to show no additional injected CO 2 in the “B” sandstone. The presence of injected CO 2 may indicate migration from “C” to “B” through the intervening beds or, more likely, a short-term leakage through the remedial cement around the casing of a 50-year old well. Results obtained to date from four shallow monitoring groundwater wells show no brine or CO 2 leakage through the Anahuac Formation, the regional cap rock.

Texas↗
USGS2011

Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is the focus of most papers in this Special Section, we posit that many of the issues that characterize the remote, relatively undisturbed ecosystems of high northern latitudes are widespread and thus applicable to natural-resource management and conservation across northern portions of the Holarctic ecozone and indeed anywhere broad-scale monitoring is contemplated.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2024

Controls on lake pelagic primary productivity: Formalizing the nutrient-color paradigm

Understanding controls on primary productivity is essential for describing ecosystems and their responses to environmental change. Lake primary production is strongly controlled by inputs of nutrients and colored dissolved organic matter. While past studies have developed mathematical models of this nutrient-color paradigm, broad empirical tests of these models are scarce. We used data from 58 diverse and globally distributed temperate lakes to test such a model and improve understanding and prediction of the controls on lake primary production. These lakes varied widely in size (0.02-2300 km2), pelagic gross primary production (20-8000 mg C m-2 d-1), and other characteristics. Across these diverse systems, and given relatively limited inputs, model predictions of primary production were highly correlated with observed values derived from high-frequency sensor data. Our analysis provides a model structure, including calibrated parameter estimates, that may be broadly useful for understanding current and future patterns in lake primary production.

JGR Biogeosciences↗
USGS2021

Thermal conditions predict intraspecific variation in senescence rate in frogs and toads

Variation in temperature is known to influence mortality patterns in ectotherms. Even though a few experimental studies on model organisms have reported a positive relationship between temperature and actuarial senescence (i.e., the increase in mortality risk with age), how variation in climate influences the senescence rate across the range of a species is still poorly understood in free-ranging animals. We filled this knowledge gap by investigating the relationships linking senescence rate, adult lifespan, and climatic conditions using long-term capture–recapture data from multiple amphibian populations. We considered two pairs of related anuran species from the Ranidae ( Rana luteiventris and Rana temporaria ) and Bufonidae ( Anaxyrus boreas and Bufo bufo ) families, which diverged more than 100 Mya and are broadly distributed in North America and Europe. Senescence rates were positively associated with mean annual temperature in all species. In addition, lifespan was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature in all species except A. boreas . In both R. luteiventris and A. boreas , mean annual precipitation and human environmental footprint both had negligible effects on senescence rates or lifespans. Overall, our findings demonstrate the critical influence of thermal conditions on mortality patterns across anuran species from temperate regions. In the current context of further global temperature increases predicted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, a widespread acceleration of aging in amphibians is expected to occur in the decades to come, which might threaten even more seriously the viability of populations and exacerbate global decline.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2010

Water security-National and global issues

Potable or clean freshwater availability is crucial to life and economic, environmental, and social systems. The amount of freshwater is finite and makes up approximately 2.5 percent of all water on the Earth. Freshwater supplies are small and randomly distributed, so water resources can become points of conflict. Freshwater availability depends upon precipitation patterns, changing climate, and whether the source of consumed water comes directly from desalination, precipitation, or surface and (or) groundwater. At local to national levels, difficulties in securing potable water sources increase with growing populations and economies. Available water improves living standards and drives urbanization, which increases average water consumption per capita. Commonly, disruptions in sustainable supplies and distribution of potable water and conflicts over water resources become major security issues for Government officials. Disruptions are often influenced by land use, human population, use patterns, technological advances, environmental impacts, management processes and decisions, transnational boundaries, and so forth.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2008

Landsat still contributing to environmental research

Landsat data have enabled continuous global monitoring of both human-caused and other land cover disturbances since 1972. Recently degraded performance and intermittent service of the Landsat 7 and Landsat 5 sensors, respectively, have raised concerns about the condition of global Earth observation programs. However, Landsat imagery is still useful for landscape change detection and this capability should continue into the foreseeable future.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2026

Tracing mercury from land to river: Global sources, retention, and implications for sustainability

Mercury (Hg) pollution in river systems is a global sustainability challenge. Yet the transport, transformation, and retention of Hg within global rivers remain poorly quantified, particularly in regions with sparse observations such as Southeast Asia and Africa, hindering effective pollution mitigation and reinforcing geographic inequities in scientific knowledge and environmental governance. Here, we present the first global, high-resolution simulation of riverine Hg dynamics using a process-based model that traces Hg from land-based sources through river networks to the ocean. Under a realistic scenario, we estimate that ∼1900 megagrams per year (Mg/yr) of Hg enters global rivers, including 1500 Mg/yr from human-induced sources and 400 Mg/yr from soil erosion. Nearly half of this flux (∼1000 Mg/yr) is retained in reservoirs and dams, which act as major sinks. While such retention limits downstream delivery to the oceans, it also heightens in-reservoir Hg methylation risks. By bridging the gap between Hg releases and observed riverine exports, our framework offers a scalable tool for data-limited regions, promotes data access, and supports global freshwater and pollution-management strategies.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2016

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m −2 decade −1 ). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m −2 decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m −2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Environmental Research Letters↗