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USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗
USGS2012

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2025

A nationwide evaluation of crowd-sourced ambient temperature data

Growing concerns about heat in urban areas paired with the sparsity of weather stations have resulted in individuals drawing on data from citizen science sensor networks to fill in data gaps. The PurpleAir are the most widely-used low-cost air quality sensors in the contiguous United States with 14,777 deployed between 1 Jan 2017 and 20 July 2021. Although the air quality data from PurpleAir sensors have been widely studied, less attention has been paid to reported temperature. We compare temperature metrics reported by PurpleAir sensors with a gridded temperature product, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)-2, which although not a gold-standard measure of temperature, is widely used in epidemiologic research. We evaluate the lag between indoor and outdoor PurpleAir temperatures. We report associations of the difference between outdoor PurpleAir temperatures and NLDAS-2 temperatures, an indicator of degradation, and the duration of sensor operation. Finally, based on the temperature range recorded by the outdoor PurpleAir sensors vis.a.vis NLDAS-2 temperatures, we provide a list of 271 (2.5%) sensors potentially misclassified as outdoor and likely located indoors. We observed that outdoor PurpleAir sensors agreed well with NLDAS-2 (R2 > 0.82). This association broke down under warm conditions (daily average NLDAS ≥ 21.1oC). Landcover and climate zone were significant modifiers of the association between PurpleAir and NLDAS-2 temperature metrics with the poorest PurpleAir- NLDAS-2 agreement in urban areas. Indoor PurpleAir temperatures lagged hourly NLDAS temperatures by two hours across almost all climate zones. The mean difference in hourly PurpleAir and NLDAS-2 temperatures increased by 0.57oC for every operational year, suggesting that careful attention must be paid to degradation. Overall, we find for use in epidemiological studies, that the PurpleAir sensor data is a reliable metric of daytime mean air temperature, but researchers should be aware of its limitations when examining extreme heat, or when aggregating sensor data across multiple years.

Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering↗
USGS2019

On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales

While there are obstacles to the exchange of long-term high temporal resolution precipitation data, there have been few barriers to the exchange of so-called ‘indices’ which are derived from daily and sub-daily data and measure aspects of precipitation frequency, duration and intensity that could be used for the study of extremes. This paper outlines the history of the rationale and use of these indices, the types of indices that are frequently used and the advantages and pitfalls in analysing them. Moving forward, satellite precipitation products are now showing the potential to provide global climate indices to supplement existing products using longer-term in situ gauge records but we suggest that to advance this area differences between data products, limitations in satellite-based estimation processes, and inherent challenges of scale need to be better understood.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2018

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V ) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Functional traits and ecological affinities of riparian plants along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Trait-based approaches to vegetation analyses are becoming more prevalent in studies of riparian vegetation dynamics, including responses to flow regulation, groundwater pumping, and climate change. These analyses require species trait data compiled from the literature and floras or original field measurements. Gathering such data makes trait-based research time intensive at best and impracticable in some cases. To support trait-based analysis of vegetation along the Colorado River through Grand Canyon, a data set of 20 biological traits and ecological affinities for 179 species occurring in that study area was compiled. This diverse flora shares species with many riparian areas in the western USA and includes species that occur across a wide moisture gradient. Data were compiled from published scientific papers, unpublished reports, plant fact sheets, existing trait databases, regional floras, and plant guides. Data for ordinal environmental tolerances were more readily available than were quantitative traits. More publicly available data are needed for traits of both common and rare southwestern U.S. plant species to facilitate comprehensive, trait-based research. The trait data set is free to use and can be downloaded from ScienceBase: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/58af41dee4b01ccd54f9f2ff and https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7QV3JN1

Arizona↗
USGS2018

Recent advances in environmental flows science and water management—Innovation in the Anthropocene

The implementation of environmental flow regimes offers a promising means to protect and restore riverine, wetland and estuarine ecosystems, their critical environmental services and cultural/societal values. This Special Issue expands the scope of environmental flows and water science in theory and practice, offering 20 papers from academics, agency researchers and non‐governmental organisations, each with fresh perspectives on the science and management of environmental water allocations. Contributions confront the grand challenge for environmental flows and water management in the Anthropocene—the urgent need for innovations that will help to sustain the innate resilience of social–ecological systems under dynamic and uncertain environmental and societal futures. Basin‐scale and regional assessments of flow requirements mark a necessary advance in environmental water science in the face of rapid changes in water‐resource management activities worldwide (e.g. increases in dams, diversions, retention and reuse). Techniques for regional‐scale hydrological and ecohydrological modelling support ecological risk assessment and identification of priority flow management and river restoration actions. Changing flood–drought cycles, long‐term climatic shifts and associated effects on hydrological, thermal and water quality regimes add enormous uncertainty to the prediction of future ecological outcomes, regardless of environmental water allocations. An improved capacity to predict the trajectories of ecological change in rivers degraded by legacies of past impact interacting with current conditions and future climate change is essential. Otherwise, we risk unrealistic expectations from restoration of river and estuarine flow regimes. A more robust, dynamic and predictive approach to environmental water science is emerging. It encourages the measurement of process rates (e.g. birth rate, colonisation rate) and species traits (e.g. physiological requirements, morphological adaptations) as well as ecosystem states (e.g. species richness, assemblage structure), as the variables representing ecological responses to flow variability and environmental water allocations. Another necessary development is the incorporation of other environmental variables such as water temperature and sedimentary processes in flow–ecological response models. Based on contributions to this Special Issue, several recent compilations and the wider literature, we identify six major scientific challenges for further exploration, and seven themes for advancing the management of environmental water. We see the emerging frontier of environmental flows and water science as urgent and challenging, with numerous opportunities for reinvigorated science and methodological innovation in the expanding enterprise of environmental water linked to ecological sustainability and social well‐being.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2021

Developing species-age cohorts from forest inventory and analysis data to parameterize a forest landscape model

Simulating long-term, landscape level changes in forest composition requires estimates of stand age to initialize succession models. Detailed stand ages are rarely available, and even general information on stand history often is lacking. We used data from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to estimate broad age classes for a forested landscape to simulate changes in landscape composition and structure relative to climate change at Fort Drum, a 43,000 ha U.S. Army installation in northwestern New York. Using simple linear regression, we developed relationships between tree diameter and age for FIA site trees from the host and adjacent ecoregions and applied those relationships to forest stands at Fort Drum. We observed that approximately half of the variation in age was explained by diameter breast height (DBH) across all species studied ( r 2 = 0.42 for sugar maple Acer saccharum to 0.63 for white ash Fraxinus americana ). We then used age-diameter relationships from published research on northern hardwood species to calibrate results from the FIA-based analysis. With predicted stand age, we used tree species life histories and environmental conditions represented by ecological site types to parameterize a stochastic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to spatially and temporally model successional changes in forest communities at Fort Drum. Forest stands modeled over 100 years without significant disturbance appeared to reflect expected patterns of increasing dominance by shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species such as sugar maple, red maple ( Acer rubrum ), and eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) where soil moisture was sufficient. On drier sandy soils, eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), red pine ( P. resinosa ), northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ), and white oak ( Q. alba ) continued to be important components throughout the modeling period with no net loss at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that despite abundant precipitation and relatively low evapotranspiration rates for the region, low soil water holding capacity and fertility may be limiting factors for the spread of mesophytic species on excessively drained soils in the region. Increasing atmospheric temperatures projected for the region could alter moisture regimes for many coarse-textured soils providing a possible mechanism for expansion of xerophytic tree species.

New York↗
USGS2023

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Introduction: Forecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana , respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Methods: We conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km 2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees. Results: While the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia , while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana . Discussion: By reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

Frontiers Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Effective hydrological events in an evolving mid‐latitude mountain river system following cataclysmic disturbance—A saga of multiple influences

Cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens (USA) in 1980 reset 30 km of upper North Fork Toutle River (NFTR) valley to a zero‐state fluvial condition. Consequently, a new channel system evolved. Initially, a range of streamflows eroded channels (tens of meters incision, hundreds of meters widening) and transported immense sediment loads. Now, single, large‐magnitude or multiple moderate‐magnitude events are needed to accomplish substantial channel modification. Three large floods (two ≥100‐year events; one ∼10–25‐year event along lower Toutle River) from 1996 to 2015 indicate flood effectiveness in this environment is affected by both geomorphic and environmental factors. The largest and smallest of these floods (February 1996, November 2006) transported the most sediment by single floods since 1982; erosion and sediment transport by an ∼100‐year flood in December 2015 was not exceptional. Strong coupling between NFTR and its tall corridor banks, local geologic and hydraulic conditions promoting threshold erosion, event sequencing, and possibly a longitudinal gradient in stream power are important factors affecting event effectiveness on channel modification. In addition, environmental factors have also been influential, as variations in snowpack, storm trajectories and rainfall distributions, and episodic mobilization of debris flows have also influenced geomorphic response. Other factors such as vegetation anchoring, strong channel–hillside coupling, disparities between flood frequencies and perturbation relaxation times, and large variations in flood duration do not appear to be critical influences. Climate forecasts for warmer temperatures and a shift from snowfall to rainfall at high elevations may promote further acute geomorphic responses.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2005

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Lake Tahoe Basin↗
USGS2023

Variable effects of long-term livestock grazing across the western United States suggest diverse approaches are needed to meet global change challenges

Aims Livestock production is the most widespread land use globally and occurs across a diverse set of ecosystems. Variability in long-term livestock grazing impacts across ecosystems is poorly characterized, particularly at larger spatial scales, despite strong relationships with various ecosystem services related to soil fertility and stabilization and vegetation productivity. Here we examine the effects of grazing on vegetation and the implications for resistance and resilience to global change. Methods We use six long-term research stations in the western United States, spanning two ecoregions, multiple ecosystems, and 311 total site-years of research. Across these sites we evaluate convergence and divergence of vegetation response to grazing vs grazing removal, focusing on interactions with drivers of global change. Results We found that at long time scales (multiple decades), grazing has numerous convergent and divergent effects across ecoregions and ecosystems. Similarity among precipitation patterns and plant traits linked to grazing and production timing were key elements explaining convergence or divergence in long-term patterns of livestock grazing response. Ecosystem differences across western US rangelands are also associated with variable effects of grazing on resistance and resilience to invasive species and climate change. Conclusions These results suggest that unique ecosystem or ecoregion responses to future global change may result from complex interactions between grazing and environmental factors, such as precipitation timing and plant traits. Adapting livestock and grazing management to specific ecosystem vegetation and climate variability is needed to manage for the myriad global changes affecting rangeland production and diversity.

Applied Vegetation Science↗
USGS2014

Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

‘Unscrambling’ the drivers of egg production in Agassiz’s desert tortoise: Climate and individual attributes predict reproductive output

ABSTRACT: The ‘bet hedging’ life history strategy of long-lived iteroparous species reduces short-term reproductive output to minimize the risk of reproductive failure over a lifetime. For desert-dwelling ectotherms living in variable and unpredictable environments, reproductive output is further influenced by precipitation and temperature via effects on food availability and limits on activity. We assembled multiple (n = 12) data sets on egg production for the threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii across its range and used these data to build a range-wide predictive model of annual reproductive output as a function of annual weather variation and individual-level attributes (body size and prior-year reproductive status). Climate variables were more robust predictors of reproductive output than individual-level attributes, with overall reproductive output positively related to prior-year precipitation and an earlier start to the spring activity season, and negatively related to spring temperature extremes (monthly temperature range in March-April). Reproductive output was highest for individuals with larger body sizes that reproduced in the previous year. Expected annual reproductive output from 1990-2018 varied from 2-5 to 6-12 eggs female -1 yr -1 , with a weak decline in expected reproductive output over this time (p = 0.02). Climate-driven environmental variation in expected reproductive output was highly correlated across all 5 Recovery Units for this species (Pearson’s r > 0.9). Overall, our model suggests that climate change could strongly impact the reproductive output of Agassiz’s desert tortoise, and could have a negative population-level effect if precipitation is significantly reduced across the species’ range as predicted under some climate models.

California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Reyes, California

This publication about the Offshore of Point Reyes map area includes ten map sheets that contain explanatory text, in addition to this descriptive pamphlet and a data catalog of geographic information system (GIS) files. Sheets 1, 2, and 3 combine data from four different sonar surveys to generate comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter coverage of the map area. These data reveal a range of physiographic features (highlighted in the perspective views on sheet 4) such as the flat, sediment-covered seafloor in Drakes Bay, as well as abundant “scour depressions” on the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf (see sheet 9) and local, tectonically controlled bedrock uplifts. To validate geological and biological interpretations of the sonar data shown in sheets 1, 2, and 3, the U.S. Geological Survey towed a camera sled over specific offshore locations, collecting both video and photographic imagery; these “ground-truth” surveying data are summarized on sheet 6. Sheet 5 is a “seafloor character” map, which classifies the seafloor on the basis of depth, slope, rugosity (ruggedness), and backscatter intensity and which is further informed by the ground-truth-survey imagery. Sheet 7 is a map of “potential habitats,” which are delineated on the basis of substrate type, geomorphology, seafloor process, or other attributes that may provide a habitat for a specific species or assemblage of organisms. Sheet 8 compiles representative seismic-reflection profiles from the map area, providing information on the subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the map area. Sheet 9 shows the distribution and thickness of young sediment (deposited over the last about 21,000 years, during the most recent sea-level rise) in both the map area and the larger Salt Point to Drakes Bay region, interpreted on the basis of the seismic-reflection data, and it identifies the Offshore of Point Reyes map area as lying within the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf, Point Reyes bar, and Bolinas shelf domains. Sheet 10 is a geologic map that merges onshore geologic mapping (compiled from existing maps by the California Geological Survey) and new offshore geologic mapping that is based on integration of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter imagery (sheets 1, 2, 3), seafloor-sediment and rock samples (Reid and others, 2006), digital camera and video imagery (sheet 6), and high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (sheet 8), as well as aerial-photographic interpretation of nearshore areas. The information provided by the map sheets, pamphlet, and data catalog have a broad range of applications. High-resolution bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, ground-truth-surveying imagery, and habitat mapping all contribute to habitat characterization and ecosystem-based management by providing essential data for delineation of marine protected areas and ecosystem restoration. Many of the maps provide high-resolution baselines that will be critical for monitoring environmental change associated with climate change, coastal development, or other forcings. High-resolution bathymetry is a critical component for modeling coastal flooding caused by storms and tsunamis, as well as inundation associated with longer term sea-level rise. Seismic-reflection and bathymetric data help characterize earthquake and tsunami sources, critical for natural-hazard assessments of coastal zones. Information on sediment distribution and thickness is essential to the understanding of local and regional sediment transport, as well as the development of regional sediment-management plans. In addition, siting of any new offshore infrastructure (for example, pipelines, cables, or renewable-energy facilities) will depend on high-resolution mapping. Finally, this mapping will both stimulate and enable new scientific research and also raise public awareness of, and education about, coastal environments and issues.

California↗
USGS2018

Informing our successors: What botanical information for Santa Cruz Island will researchers and conservation managers in the century ahead need the most?

Climate changes are predicted to drive changes in plant species composition and vegetation cover around the world. Preserved specimens and other botanical information that we gather today—a period future practitioners may look back on as an early stage of modern anthropogenic climate change—will be of value to conservation managers and conservation biologists in the decades and centuries ahead. Here, we present suggestions for the systematic collection, long-term curation (in museums, herbaria, and other research institutions), and maintenance of plant specimens, along with associated data and analyses on the plants and vegetation present today and in the past. The primary aim of this systematic survey is to provide information of high value to conservation researchers and managers both in the near term (the next several years) and through the century to come. Such a systematic survey would build on a strong foundation of research and adaptive management on the island. It would fill gaps in less well-studied groups of organisms and identify environmental, ecological, and cultural factors related to current patterns of distribution. It would also archive previously collected data, photographs, and other materials which would otherwise gradually degrade and become inaccessible. As a case study, we use Santa Cruz Island, California, which is managed for conservation. We are confident that the same approach may be applied to other lands and waters around the world. We argue that there is a particular need to collect and archive herbarium specimens and seeds from today's populations, activities largely overlooked in recent decades. We encourage conservation researchers and managers to consider what information will be most important for future managers and to help launch studies, monitoring programs, and collections to prepare their successors for success.

Western North American Naturalist↗
USGS1992

The oldest known Rocky Mountain bristlecone pines ( Pinus aristata Engelm.)

We have found 12 living Rocky Mountain bristlecone pines ( Pinus aristata ) more than 1600 yr old, including four that are more than 2100 yr old, on Black Mountain, near South Park, and on Almagre Mountain, in the southern Front Range, Colorado. A core from the oldest of these trees has an inner-ring date of 442 B.C. This tree is therefore at least 2435 yr old and exceeds the age of the oldest previously reported Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine by 846 yr. The ages of these trees show that Rocky Mountain bristlecone pines, under arid environmental conditions, achieve much older ages than have been previously reported. The ages also show that previously inferred trends in bristlecone pine ages, where maximum ages in the eastern range of Rocky Mountain bristlecone pines are much less than maximum ages in the western range of Great Basin bristlecone pines ( Pinus longaeva ), are less strong than previously supposed. Ancient Rocky Mountain bristlecone pines, such as those found in this study, have the potential to expand our knowledge of late Holocene climatic conditions in western North America.

Arctic and Alpine Research↗
USGS2020

Restoration at the landscape scale as a means of mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Purpose of Review Although landscape-scale restoration efforts are gaining traction worldwide, their success is generally unknown. We review landscape-scale restorations to gain insight to whether focal ecological outcomes have been achieved, in the face of changing environmental conditions. Recent Findings Only 9% of the 477 articles that resulted from our search were studies of landscape-scale restorations. The majority (73%) of the landscape restorations from our study have occurred since the 1990s, indicating that this type of restoration has gained in popularity in the last 30 years. Furthermore, 67% of these restoration studies occurred in a single country: China. Many scientific studies have addressed the ability of a species to shift ranges with climate change, yet few of the landscape-scale restoration studies used for our study addressed this question. Instead, 87% of the studies focused on ecosystem function, rather than community-level processes, as a result of restoration. Summary There is a clear need for more research to be undertaken on the ecological outcomes of landscape-scale restorations to understand whether they enable species and communities to shift their ranges or adapt to climate change. Conservation practitioners could utilize our decision matrix as a tool to guide restoration of individual sites within a landscape context, as well as current and future climatic conditions, to guide ecological outcomes of interest. Optimal biodiversity maintenance requires habitat conservation in concert with restoration activities at the landscape scale, and the latter, likely increasingly so in a world of changing climate.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗