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USGS2021

Coastal Tree-Ring Records for Paleoclimate and Paleoenvironmental Applications in North America

For more than a century, tree-ring research has identified relationships between climatic and ecological conditions and tree growth to describe past environments and constrain future ecosystem vulnerabilities. Tree-ring records are frequently used as environmental proxies that extend knowledge of past climate and ecology on millennial scales. Many of the most pressing global change questions facing North America concern the rate of climate change and vulnerability of ecosystems and society along the coast. The opportunities and applications in dendrochronology continue to grow with advancing methodologies, faster computational ability, and the cost-reduction of many chemical and anatomical analyses. Here, we propose that many pressing global change questions that affect coastal communities can be addressed using dendrochronological techniques. We review coastal tree-ring studies that demonstrate the utility and potential for future tree-ring studies in the northeastern, southeastern, northwestern, and southwestern North American coasts. Additionally, we show that tree-ring chronologies along the coast give insight into local and regional climate phenomena that are distinct from nearby, inland tree-ring chronologies of the same species. Lastly, we identify opportunities for coastal dendrochronology and encourage the collection of more tree-ring records that are directly impacted by coastal phenomena.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2007

The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments

The coastal zone of the United States is a dynamic environment evolving in response to both natural processes and human activities. In order to protect coastal populations and resources, a detailed understanding of the physical setting and of the processes responsible for change is required. A sustained program of mapping coastal areas provides a means to establish baseline conditions, document change, and, in conjunction with models of physical processes, predict future behavior. Recent advances in mapping technology, including airborne lidars and hyperspectral imagers, allow for the rapid collection of high-resolution elevation data and land use information on a national scale. These rich data sets are critical to evaluating risk associated with coastal hazards, such as flooding during extreme storms. For example, coastal elevation data is a fundamental parameter in storm surge models that predict where flooding will occur, and land use maps serve as the foundation of assessments that identify the resources and populations that are most vulnerable. A comprehensive, national coastal mapping plan that is designed to collect, manage, and distribute these data, as well as to take advantage of recent progress in mapping technology, will provide a wealth of information for studying the processes of physical change, for determining areas vulnerable to coastal hazards, and for protecting and managing our coastal communities and resources.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗

USGS2011

USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center--Research activities in the U.S. Virgin Islands

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in Florida investigates earth-science processes related to coastal and marine environments as well as to societal implications of natural hazards, resource sustainability, and environmental change. The Center is conducting ongoing research in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands that is providing baseline information for resource management and for assessing the health of and environmental changes to vital ecosystems such as coral reefs. In particular, projects are improving the understanding of coral health, advancing the ability to forecast future changes in coral reef ecosystems, and acquiring topographic data for use in inventorying, monitoring, and conserving coastal and marine environments.

Virgin Islands↗

USGS2020

How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological shifts. First, using existing long-term historical data series, they will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological factors have changed for marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently difficult to detect, the team will apply dynamic occupancy models to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. The project team will also synthesize regional information on a key, ecologically-important prey fish, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predator species targeted in this study as well as a range of other regional fish and wildlife of conservation and management concern. Results from this component of the project will identify coastal fish and wildlife species that are relatively more or less able to adapt and thus potentially vulnerable to climate change; determine the likely primary drivers of those changes; and identify data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be available and useful for regional coastal management and adaptation decisions that will allow managers to effectively plan for the future. In a second component of the project, researchers will focus specifically on changes in migration patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. While shifts in the distribution and time of recurring life events are adaptive responses that may help species cope with climate impacts, they can also lead to changes in how species interact with humans. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the most endangered whale species on the planet. In the North Atlantic Ocean, ship strikes and entanglements with commercial fishing gear represent fatal threats to right whales. Recent reports suggest that North Atlantic right whale migration patterns have changed. Many researchers posit that shifts in migration are responsible for recent increases in the overlap between right whales and human activities, especially fishing. To help understand how changes in right whale movements and behaviors may overlap with ship traffic, and thus put the animals at risk of encountering vessels, we will combine right whale habitat models with ship traffic maps. The end result will be a set of maps identifying risk levels.

Gulf of Maine↗

USGS2014

A synoptic examination of causes of land loss in southern Louisiana as related to the exploitation of subsurface geologic resources

During the last 80 years, Louisiana has been losing wetlands at an average rate of 62 km 2 /y (24 mi 2 /y) for an accumulated loss of approximately 4900 km 2 (1900 mi 2 ). The loss seems to be the combined result of natural and anthropogenic causes that are behind primarily land subsidence averaging about 10 mm/y (0.4 in/y) coinciding with a sea level rise now at 3 mm/y (0.1 in/y), both contributing to coastal inundation. Upon completing extensive review of often controversial and conflicting views only synoptically reported here, conclusions reached by applying Monte Carlo simulation include: (1) geodetic measurements are consistent with independently postulated causes of regional subsidence; (2) ranking of subsidence factors shows that the main contributor to the regional subsidence is adjustment to sediment load in the form of lithosphere flexure followed by normal faulting dipping basinward, which combined, account on average for 70% of the subsidence, with compaction accounting for another 23%; and (3) production of oil and gas plays a tertiary role. The literature supports the historical view that before experiencing engineering modifications across the catchment area, sedimentation from the Mississippi River system was able to build a prograding coastline by overcoming subsidence rates of similar magnitude with more generous sediment loads of coarser particle size. Sea level rise will become an increasingly dominant factor in land loss only if the acceleration predicted by simulation model scenarios materializes. Wetland losses most likely will continue for as long as there is no compensation to counterbalance the negative effects of land subsidence and sea level rise, with the latter determining the pace of future losses.

Louisiana↗

USGS2023

Accuracy of shoreline forecasting using sparse data

Sandy beaches are important resources providing recreation, tourism, habitat, and coastal protection. They evolve over various time scales due to local winds, waves, storms, and changes in sea level. A common method used to monitor change in sandy beaches is to measure the movement of the shoreline over time. Typically, the rate of change is estimated by fitting a linear regression through a time series of shoreline positions. To best manage the valuable resources within a coastal environment, accurate forecasts of shoreline position are needed. A simple way to estimate future shoreline position is to extrapolate a linear regression into the future, this method is often used to establish management guidelines like construction setback lines. A more recently developed shoreline forecasting technique utilizes the Kalman filter to assimilate shoreline data and modify the linear regression. This paper calculates the uncertainty and accuracy of both the extrapolated linear regression and Kalman filter forecasting methods for 10- and 20-year hindcasts using data collected at five diverse study areas. These data are inherently sparse (8–10 measurements per location, collected over 150 years) and are representative of the observed historical data available for the continental United States for this timeframe. Both methods produced similar results and had regionally averaged forecast accuracies of 5–16 m. We determined that the inaccuracy of the forecasts is largely due to the effects of shorter time scale variability. This variability is roughly proportional to the standard error of the linear regression, which is a useful measure of forecast uncertainty.

Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

A global ensemble of ocean wave climate statistics from contemporary wave reanalysis and hindcasts

There are numerous global ocean wave reanalysis and hindcast products currently being distributed and used across different scientific fields. However, there is not a consistent dataset that can sample across all existing products based on a standardized framework. Here, we present and describe the first coordinated multi-product ensemble of present-day global wave fields available to date. This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, includes general and extreme statistics of significant wave height ( H s ), mean wave period ( T m ) and mean wave direction ( θ m ) computed across 1980–2014, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally, and annually). This coordinated global ensemble has been derived from fourteen state-of-the-science global wave products obtained from different atmospheric reanalysis forcing and downscaling methods. This data set has been processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, following standard Data Reference Syntax, Directory Structures and Metadata specifications. This new comprehensive dataset provides support to future broad-scale analysis of historical wave climatology and variability as well as coastal risk and vulnerability assessments across offshore and coastal engineering applications.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2007

Temporal changes of populations and trophic relationships of wintering diving ducks in Chesapeake Bay

Population and trophic relationships among diving ducks in Chesapeake Bay are diverse and complex as they include five species of bay ducks (Aythya spp.), nine species of seaducks (Tribe Mergini), and the Ruddy Duck (Oxyura jamaicensis). Here we considered the relationships between population changes and diet over the past half century to assess the importance of prey changes to wintering waterfowl in the Bay. Food habits of 643 diving ducks collected from Chesapeake Bay during 1999-2006 were determined by analyses of their gullet (esophagus and proventriculus) and gizzard contents and compared to historical data (1885-1979) of 1,541 diving ducks. Aerial waterfowl surveys, in general, suggest that six species of seaducks were more commonly located in the meso- to polyhaline areas of the Bay, whereas five species of bay ducks and Ruddy Ducks were in the oligo- to mesohaline areas. Seaducks fed on a molluscan diet of Hooked Mussel (Ischadium recurvum), Amethyst Gemclam (Gemma gemma), and Dwarf Surfclarn (Mulinia lateralis). Bay ducks and Ruddy Ducks fed more on Baltic Macoma (Macoma balthica), the adventive Atlantic Rangia (Rangia cuneata), and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Mergansers were found over the widest salinity range in the Bay, probably because of their piscivorous diet. Each diving duck species appears to fill a unique foraging niche, although there is much overlap of selected prey. When current food habits are compared to historic data, only the Canvasback (Aythya valisineria) has had major diet changes, although SAV now accounts for less food volume for all diving duck species, except the Redhead (Aythya americana). Understanding the trophic-habitat relationships of diving ducks in coastal wintering areas will give managers a better understanding of the ecological effects of future environmental changes. Intensive restoration efforts on SAV and oyster beds should greatly benefit diving duck populations.

Waterbirds↗

USGS1989

Effects of river discharge and high-tide stage on salinity intrusion in the Weeki Wachee, Crystal, and Withlacoochee River estuaries, southwest Florida

The Weeki Wachee, Crystal, and Withlacoochee Rivers are coastal streams flowing into the Gulf of Mexico that may be affected by either future surface water or groundwater withdrawals. Reduction of river discharge will affect the upstream extent of saltwater intrusion in the rivers; however, under certain reduced low-flow discharges, the estimated change in upstream extent of saltwater intrusion is on the order of several tenths of a mile and frequently is within the range of predicted error. Data on flow, tides, and salinity describe the physical characteristics of the Weeki Wachee, Crystal, and Withlacoochee River systems. Vertical and longitudinal salinity profiles indicate that salinity of the rivers increases downstream and varies substantially at any given location. The Weeki Wachee River system is the best mixed of the three. The Crystal River system exhibited the next best mixed system, and the Withlacoochee River system exhibited the most variation in its salinity regime. The daily maximum upstream extent of salinity intrusion is described by multiple linear-regression analysis based on daily mean streamflow of each river and high-tide stage of the gulf. The equations are used to show the effects of discharge on the daily maximum upstream extent of salinity intrusion in the rivers.

Florida↗

USGS2007

Law of the sea, the continental shelf, and marine research

The question of the amount of seabed to which a coastal nation is entitled is addressed in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This treaty, ratified by 153 nations and in force since 1994, specifies national obligations, rights, and jurisdiction in the oceans, and it allows nations a continental shelf out to at least 200 nautical miles or to a maritime boundary. Article 76 (A76) of the convention enables coastal nations to establish their continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles and therefore to control, among other things, access for scientific research and the use of seabed resources that would otherwise be considered to lie beyond national jurisdiction. To date, seven submissions for extended continental shelves (ECS) have been filed under UNCLOS (Table 1). These submissions have begun to define the ambiguities in A76. How these ambiguities are resolved into final ECS boundaries will probably set important precedents guiding the future delimitation of the ECS by the United States, which has not ratified the convention, and other coastal nations. This report uses examples from the first three submissions—by the Russian Federation, Brazil, and Australia—to identify outstanding issues encountered in applying A76 to ECS delimitation.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗

USGS2004

Geodetic and seismic constraints on some seismogenic zone processes in Costa Rica

New seismic and geodetic data from Costa Rica provide insight into seismogenic zone processes in Central America, where the Cocos and Caribbean plates converge. Seismic data are from combined land and ocean bottom deployments in the Nicoya peninsula in northern Costa Rica and near the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. In Nicoya, inversion of GPS data suggests two locked patches centered at 14 ± 2 and 39 ± 6 km depth. Interplate microseismicity is concentrated in the more freely slipping intermediate zone, suggesting that small interseismic earthquakes may not accurately outline the updip limit of the seismogenic zone, the rupture zone for future large earthquakes, at least over the short (∼1 year) observation period. We also estimate northwest motion of a coastal “sliver block” at 8 ± 3 mm/yr, probably related to oblique convergence. In the Osa region to the south, convergence is orthogonal to the trench. Cocos-Caribbean relative motion is partitioned here, with ∼8 cm/yr on the Cocos-Panama block boundary (including a component of permanent shortening across the Fila Costeña fold and thrust belt) and ∼1 cm/yr on the Panama block–Caribbean boundary. The GPS data suggest that the Cocos plate–Panama block boundary is completely locked from ∼10–50 km depth. This large locked zone, as well as associated forearc and back-arc deformation, may be related to subduction of the shallow Cocos Ridge and/or younger lithosphere compared to Nicoya, with consequent higher coupling and compressive stress in the direction of plate convergence.

Nicoya Peninsula, Osa Peninsula↗

USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Strong shaking from past Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes encoded in coastal landforms

Strong earthquakes along subduction zones are often devastating events, but sparse records along some tectonic margins limit our understanding of seismic hazards. Constraining shaking intensities is critical, especially in subduction zones with infrequent but large-magnitude earthquakes like the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), where the lack of recorded ground motions has led to uncertainty in the severity and potential impacts of future earthquakes. Here we fill this observational gap with a novel inventory of quantitative estimates of past shaking intensities from geotechnical modeling of coastal landforms. One hundred fifty-four deep-seated landslides and 65 fragile geologic features constrain minimum and maximum peak ground accelerations, respectively. These estimates are broadly consistent with model predictions of M9 ruptures, suggesting strong shaking of 0.4–0.8 g during past CSZ earthquakes. Local discrepancies between our geologic shaking constraints and earthquake simulations may inform past rupture behavior, leading to better predictions of shaking intensity for future earthquakes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

A catalog of Louisiana's nesting seabird colonies

Summarizing his colonial nesting waterbird survey experiences along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in a paper presented to the Colonial Waterbird Group of the Waterbird Society (Portnoy 1978), bird biologist John W. Portnoy stated, “This huge concentration of nesting waterbirds, restricted almost entirely to the wetlands and estuaries of southern Louisiana, is unmatched in all of North America; for example, a 1975 inventory of wading birds along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida [Custer and Osborn, in press], tallied 250,000 breeding [waterbirds] of 14 species, in contrast with the 650,000 birds of 15 species just from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay.” The “650,000 birds” to which Portnoy referred, were tallied by him in a 1976 survey of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama (see below, under “Major Surveys” section). According to the National Atlas of Coastal Waterbird Colonies in the Contiguous United States: 1976-82 (Spendelow and Patton 1988), the percentages of the total U.S. populations of Laughing Gull (11%), Forster's Tern (52%), Royal Tern (16%), Sandwich Tern (77%), and Black Skimmer (44%) which annually nest in Louisiana are significant – perhaps crucially so in the cases of Forster's Tern, Sandwich Tern, and Black Skimmer. Nearly three decades after Spendelow and Patton's determinations above, coastal Louisiana still stands out as the major center of colonial wading bird and seabird nesting in all of the United States. Within those three intervening decades, however, the collective habitats which comprise Louisiana's now fragile coastal zone have taken major hits from commercial/residential, oil & gas, and other industrial development, primarily in the form of coastal erosion exacerbated by these and other factors (Portnoy 1978, Spendelow and Patton 1988, Martin and Lester 1990, Green, et al. 2006). Moreover, during this same period, both geologic subsidence rates (Tornqvist et al. 2008) and mean sea-level (Tornqvist et al. 2002) have increased, along with significant tropical storm activity; all of which have combined to impact available marsh, barrier island, beach, and dredge spoil nesting habitat for waterbirds, especially seabirds, throughout the coastal zone of Louisiana. The primary objective of this publication is to detail those coastal Louisiana colonial seabird nesting sites for which we have reasonably accurate data, in a tabular, site-by-site format. All major survey (1976-2008) data of site-by-site seabird species counts, as well as several smaller data sets, referred to in the site history tables as “miscellaneous observations” obtained during the May-June seabird breeding period, are included. It is our hope that these data will provide a dependable foundation from which future colonial seabird nesting surveys might be planned and carried out, as well as showcase the importance of coastal Louisiana's seabird rookeries, and contribute to their conservation.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine: long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms

Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004–2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization. Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with>300 cysts cm −3 ) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3–4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0–1 and the 0–3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts→blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms→cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0–3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year's bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.

Maine↗

USGS1977

Digital computer simulation model of the Englishtown aquifer in the northern coastal plain of New Jersey

Continued decline of water levels in the Englishtown aquifer, in New Jersey, has caused considerable concern regarding the ability of the aquifer to meet future yield demands. A detailed study of the capability of the aquifer to yield water entailed the use of a digital computer simulation model to evaluate aquifer and confining layer coefficients and to test alternative concepts of the hydrodynamics of the flow system. The modeled area includes about 750 square miles of the northern Coastal Plain of New Jersey and encompasses all the major centers of pumping from the Englishtown aquifer. The simulation model was calibrated by matching computed declines with historical water-level declines over the 12-year period, 1959-70. The volume of transient and steady leakage into the Englishtown aquifer from and through the adjacent confining layers equaled more than 90 percent of the total volume of water withdrawn from the aquifer between 1959 and 1970. The analytical estimate of transient leakage indicates that about 60 percent of the water withdrawn from the Englishtown between 1959 and 1970 was replaced by water released from storage in the adjacent confining beds. An additional 34 percent of the withdrawal over this time period was supported by steady leakage through the overlying confining bed from the Mount Laurel aquifer. Of the more than 30 billion gallons withdrawn from the aquifer over the 12-year period, about 2 billion gallons were obtained from storage in the aquifer. The values of aquifer and confining-layer coefficients used in the model are nearly the same as the average values obtained from field and laboratory data. (Woodard-USGS)

Coastal New Jersey↗

USGS2014

Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km 2 ) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (< 283 m 3 s -1 ) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (< 3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (> 1,500 m 3 s -1 ) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗