Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Services”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Asynchronous landslide seasonality across the United States

Mid-range landslide outlooks can facilitate weather-related landslide preparedness and disaster response planning, but seasonal landslide activity remains poorly quantified at continental scales. Leveraging >55,000 reported landslides from across the United States (U.S.), we used circular statistics to quantify landslide seasonality in 67 National Weather Service County Warning Areas (CWAs). We found regional differences in landslide season timing and duration, with transitions between domains variably corresponding to climate class or river basin. We assessed differences in seasonality by movement type for slides, flows, and falls, detecting apparent, but uncertain, differences between slide and fall seasonalities in 27 of 35 (77%) of CWAs with both types reported. In the Pacific Northwest, where long records exist, we found a credible shift toward a later mean landslide season in western Washington from 1990 to 2020, but no trend in western Oregon. Our results can provide emergency planners a resource to assess seasonal landslide probability nationwide.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2013

Determination of flow losses in the Cape Fear River between B. Everett Jordan Lake and Lillington, North Carolina, 2008-2010

During 2008-2010, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a hydrologic investigation in cooperation with the Triangle J Council of Governments Cape Fear River Flow Study Committee and the North Carolina Division of Water Resources to collect hydrologic data in the Cape Fear River between B. Everett Jordan Lake and Lillington in central North Carolina to help determine if suspected flow losses occur in the reach. Flow loss analyses were completed by summing the daily flow releases at Jordan Lake Dam with the daily discharges at Deep River at Moncure and Buckhorn Creek near Corinth, then subtracting these values from the daily discharges at Cape Fear River at Lillington. Examination of long-term records revealed that during 10,227 days of the 1983-2010 water years, 408 days (4.0 percent) had flow loss when conditions were relatively steady with respect to the previous day's records. The flow loss that occurred on these 40 days ranged from 0.49 to 2,150 cubic feet per second with a median flow loss of 37.2 cubic feet per second. The months with the highest number of days with flow losses were June (16. percent), September (16.9 percent), and October (19.4 percent). A series of synoptic discharge measurements made on six separate days in 2009 provided "snapshots" of overall flow conditions along the study reach. The largest water diversion is just downstream from the confluence of the Haw and Deep Rivers, and discharges substantially decrease in the main stem downstream from the intake point. Downstream from Buckhorn Dam, minimal gain or loss between the dam and Raven Rock State Park was noted. Analyses of discharge measurements and ratings for two streamgages-one at Deep River at Moncure and the other at Cape Fear River at Lillington-were completed to address the accuracy of the relation between stage and discharge at these sites. The ratings analyses did not indicate a particular time during the 1982-2011 water years in which a consistent bias occurred in the computations of discharge records that would indicate false flow losses. A total of 34 measured discharges at a streamgage on the Haw River below B. Everett Jordan Lake near Moncure were compared with the reported hourly flow releases from Jordan Lake Dam. Because 28 of 34 measurements were within plus or minus 10 percent of the hourly flow releases reported by the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, use of the current discharge computation tables for reporting Jordan Lake Dam flow releases is generally supported. A stage gage was operated on the Cape Fear River at Buckhorn Dam near Corinth to collect continuous stage-only records. Throughout the study period, flow over the dam was observed along its length, and flow loss within the study reach is not attributed to river-level fluctuations at the dam. Water-use information and (or) data were obtained for five industrial facilities, a regional power utility, two municipalities, one small hydropower facility on the Deep River, and one quarry operation also adjacent to the Deep River. The largest water users are the regional power producer, a small hydropower operation, and the two municipalities. The total water-use diversions for these facilities range from almost 25.5 to 38.5 cubic feet per second (39.5 to 59.5 million gallons per day) during the winter and summer periods, respectively. This range is equivalent to 69 to 104 percent of the 37 cubic feet per second median flow loss. The Lockville hydropower station is on the Deep River about 1 mile downstream from the streamgage near Moncure. Run-of-river operations at the facility do not appear to affect flow losses in the study reach. The largest water user in the study area is a regional power producer at a coal-fired power-generation plant located immediately adjacent to the Cape Fear River just downstream from the confluence of the Haw an Deep Rivers. Comparisons of daily water withdrawals, sup-plied by the regional power producer, and discharge records at a streamgage on the diversion canal indicated many days when consumption exceeded the producer's estimates for the cooling towers. Uncertainty surrounding reasonable estimates of consumption remained in effect at the end of the study. Data concerning evaporative losses were compiled using two approaches-an analysis of available pan-evaporation data from a National Weather Service cooperative observer station in Chapel Hill, North Carolina; and a compilation of reference open-water evaporation computed by the State Climate Office of North Carolina. The potential flow loss by evaporation from the main stem and the Deep River was estimated to be in the range of 4 to 14 cubic feet per second during May through October, equivalent to 10 to 38 percent of the 37 cubic feet per second median flow loss. Daily water-use diversions and evaporation losses were compared to flow-loss occurrences during the period April 2008 through September 2010. In comparing the surface-water, water-use, and evaporation data compiled for 2008-2010, it is evident that documented water diversions combined with flow losses by open-water evaporation can exceed the net flow gain in the study area and result in flow losses from the reach. Analysis of data from a streamgage downstream from the regional power plant on the diversion canal adjacent to the Cape Fear River provided insight into the occurrence of an apparent flow loss at the streamgage at Lillington. Assessment of the daily discharges and subsequent hydrographs for the canal streamgage indicated at least 24 instances during the study when the flows suddenly changed by magnitudes of 100 to more that 200 cubic feet per second, resulting in a noted time-lag effect on the downstream discharges at the Lillington streamgage, beginning 8 to 16 hours after the sudden flow change. A fiber-optic distributed temperature-sensing survey was conducted on the Cape Fear River at the Raven Rock State Park reach August 12-14, 2009, to determine if the presence of diabase dikes were preferentially directing groundwater discharge. No temperature anomalies of colder water were measured during the survey, which indicated that at the time of the survey that particular reach of the Cape Fear River was a "no-flow" or losing stream. An aerial thermal-infrared survey was conducted on the Haw and Cape Fear Rivers on February 27, 2010, from Jordan Lake Dam to Lillington to qualitatively delineate areas of groundwater discharge on the basis of the contrast between warm groundwater discharge and cold surface-water temperatures. Dis-charge generally was noted as diffuse seepage, but in a few cases springs were detected as inflow at a discrete point of discharge. Two reaches of the Cape Fear River (regional power plant and Bradley Road reaches) were selected for groundwater monitoring with a transect of piezometers installed within the flood plain. Groundwater-level altitudes at these reaches were analyzed for 1 water year (October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2010). Data collected as part of this study represent only a brief period of time and may not represent all conditions and all years; however, the data indicate that, during the dry summer months, the Cape Fear River within the study area is losing an undetermined quantity of water through seepage. Analyses completed during this investigation indicate a study reach with complex flow patterns affected by numerous concurrent factors resulting in flow losses. The causes of flow loss could not be solely attributed to any one factor. Among the factors considered, the occurrences of water diversions and evaporative losses were determined to be sufficient on some days (particularly during the base-flow period) to exceed the net gain in flows between the upstream and downstream ends of the study area. Losses by diversions and evaporation can exceed the median flow loss of 3 cubic feet per second, which indicates that flow loss from the study reach is real. Groundwater data collected during 2009-2010 indicate the possibility of localized flow loss during the summer, particularly in the impounded reach above Buckhorn Dam. However, no indication of unusual patterns was noted that would cause substantial flow loss by groundwater and surface-water interaction at the river bottom.

North Carolina↗
USGS2009

The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 °C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 °C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in montane regions.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2014

Advances in a distributed approach for ocean model data interoperability

An infrastructure for earth science data is emerging across the globe based on common data models and web services. As we evolve from custom file formats and web sites to standards-based web services and tools, data is becoming easier to distribute, find and retrieve, leaving more time for science. We describe recent advances that make it easier for ocean model providers to share their data, and for users to search, access, analyze and visualize ocean data using MATLAB® and Python®. These include a technique for modelers to create aggregated, Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention datasets from collections of non-standard Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) output files, the capability to remotely access data from CF-1.6-compliant NetCDF files using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Observation Service (SOS), a metadata standard for unstructured grid model output (UGRID), and tools that utilize both CF and UGRID standards to allow interoperable data search, browse and access. We use examples from the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed, a project in which modelers using both structured and unstructured grid model output needed to share their results, to compare their results with other models, and to compare models with observed data. The same techniques used here for ocean modeling output can be applied to atmospheric and climate model output, remote sensing data, digital terrain and bathymetric data.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗
USGS2020

Projected climate and land use changes drive plant community composition in agricultural wetlands

Playa wetlands in the Great Plains, USA support a wide variety of plant species not found elsewhere in this agriculturally-dominated region due to the ephemeral presence of standing water and hydric soils within playas. If longer dry periods occur due to climate change or if changes in surrounding land use alter sediment accumulation rates and water storage capacity in playas, plant communities could experience decreased diversity, with lasting effects on ecosystem services provided by playas in the Great Plains and at a continental-level in North America. We quantified potential changes in playa wetland plant community composition associated with predicted changes in precipitation and land use in the Great Plains through the end of the 21 st century. We conducted two six-month greenhouse experiments mimicking field conditions using intact mesocosms collected from playas in Nebraska and Texas. In the precipitation experiment, treatments derived from historical precipitation observations and three future moderate emissions (CMIP5 RCP4.5) downscaled climate projections were applied to mesocosms. For the land use experiment, treatments were simulated by nitrogen (N) applications to soil ranging from 0 to 100 mg-N L -1 with each precipitation event under historical rainfall patterns, representing increasing and decreasing area in agricultural use in playa watersheds. Plant communities tended to shift toward more native species under projected future climate conditions, but as N runoff increased, native species richness decreased. Agricultural land-use surrounding playas may have a greater effect on wetland plant communities than future alterations to hydrology based on climate change in the Great Plains; thus, efforts to reduce nutrient runoff into playas would likely mitigate loss in ecosystem function in the coming decades.

Nebraska, Texas↗
USGS2012

A national geographic framework for guiding conservation on a landscape scale

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with the global conservation community, has recognized that the conservation challenges of the 21st century far exceed the responsibilities and footprint of any individual agency or program. The ecological effects of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors do not recognize geopolitical boundaries and, as such, demand a national geographic framework to provide structure for cross-jurisdictional and landscape-scale conservation strategies. In 2009, a new map of ecologically based conservation regions in which to organize capacity and implement strategic habitat conservation was developed using rapid prototyping and expert elicitation by an interagency team of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and U.S. Geological Survey scientists and conservation professionals. Incorporating Bird Conservation Regions, Freshwater Ecoregions, and U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic unit codes, the new geographic framework provides a spatial template for building conservation capacity and focusing biological planning and conservation design efforts. The Department of Interior's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives are being organized in these new conservation regions as multi-stakeholder collaborations for improved conservation science and management.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2013

New service interface for River Forecasting Center derived quantitative precipitation estimates

For more than a decade, the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) have been estimating spatially distributed rainfall by applying quality-control procedures to radar-indicated rainfall estimates in the eastern United States and other best practices in the western United States to producea national Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) (National Weather Service, 2013). The availability of archives of QPE information for analytical purposes has been limited to manual requests for access to raw binary file formats that are difficult for scientists who are not in the climatic sciences to work with. The NWS provided the QPE archives to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the contents of the real-time feed from the RFCs are being saved by the USGS for incorporation into the archives. The USGS has applied time-series aggregation and added latitude-longitude coordinate variables to publish the RFC QPE data. Web services provide users with direct (index-based) data access, rendered visualizations of the data, and resampled raster representations of the source data in common geographic information formats.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2017

Comparison of oyster populations, shoreline protection service, and site characteristics at seven created fringing reefs in Louisiana: Key parameters and responses to consider

Coastal erosion threatens many low-lying areas around the globe. Rising sea levels from climate change are expected to increase coastal erosion and exacerbate flooding and storm surges. This is particularly true in low-lying coastal Louisiana, which developed as the Mississippi River changed course (delta switching) over the past 7000 years. Periods of land loss and gain resulted in an intricate coastal environment composed of shallow water areas with wetlands, swamps, barrier islands, and ridges (Day et al. 2007). This complex habitat sustains high economic and biological productivity, supporting the largest commercial fishery in the lower 48 states, providing habitat for important species of fish and wildlife, mitigating storm surge, and delivering protection for oil and gas production facilities, including five of the nation’s largest ports. Because of past and ongoing geological and physical processes, such as subsidence, sea level rise, tropical cyclonic activity, and direct human activities (Barras 2009; Chmura et al. 1992; Georgiou et al. 2005), coastal Louisiana is estimated to have lost an area almost the size of Delaware (4877 km2) between 1932 and 2010, with recent analyses indicating losses averaging 42.9 km2/year (Couvillion et al. 2011).

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Selecting sagebrush seed sources for restoration in a variable climate: ecophysiological variation among genotypes

Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) communities dominate a large fraction of the United States and provide critical habitat for a number of wildlife species of concern. Loss of big sagebrush due to fire followed by poor restoration success continues to reduce ecological potential of this ecosystem type, particularly in the Great Basin. Choice of appropriate seed sources for restoration efforts is currently unguided due to knowledge gaps on genetic variation and local adaptation as they relate to a changing landscape. We are assessing ecophysiological responses of big sagebrush to climate variation, comparing plants that germinated from ~20 geographically distinct populations of each of the three subspecies of big sagebrush. Seedlings were previously planted into common gardens by US Forest Service collaborators Drs. B. Richardson and N. Shaw, (USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Provo, Utah and Boise, Idaho) as part of the Great Basin Native Plant Selection and Increase Project. Seed sources spanned all states in the conterminous Western United States. Germination, establishment, growth and ecophysiological responses are being linked to genomics and foliar palatability. New information is being produced to aid choice of appropriate seed sources by Bureau of Land Management and USFS field offices when they are planning seed acquisitions for emergency post-fire rehabilitation projects while considering climate variability and wildlife needs.

Report↗
USGS2010

Response of Florida shelf ecosystems to climate change: from macro to micro scales

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research in St. Petersburg, Fla., is focusing attention on marine environments of the Florida shelf at three levels, from regional to estuarine to the individual organism. The USGS is partnering on this project with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of South Florida (USF) in marine studies. The specific goals of these combined efforts are an improved understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on regional carbonate processes, changes in individual estuaries, and organism-level response. This understanding will assist in developing appropriate Federal, State, and local management responses to climate change in coastal areas.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2018

Historical patterns of wildfire ignition sources in California ecosystems

State and federal agencies have reported fire causes since the early 1900s, explicitly for the purpose of helping land managers design fire-prevention programs. We document fire-ignition patterns in five homogenous climate divisions in California over the past 98 years on state Cal Fire protected lands and 107 years on federal United States Forest Service lands. Throughout the state, fire frequency increased steadily until a peak c. 1980, followed by a marked drop to 2016. There was not a tight link between frequency of ignition sources and area burned by those sources and the relationships have changed over time. Natural lightning-ignited fires were consistently fewer from north to south and from high to low elevation. Throughout most of the state, human-caused fires dominated the record and were positively correlated with population density for the first two-thirds of the record, but this relationship reversed in recent decades. We propose a mechanistic multi-variate model of factors driving fire frequency, where the importance of different factors has changed over time. Although ignition sources have declined markedly in recent decades, one notable exception is powerline ignitions. One important avenue for future fire-hazard reduction will be consideration of solutions to reduce this source of dangerous fires.

California↗
USGS2018

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

The California Clapper Rail and multispecies recovery planning

The California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus) lives in remnant tidal marshes of San Francisco Bay, where less than 20 percent of the historic tidal wetlands remain. Listed as an endangered species in 1970 by the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), this enigmatic bird faces a myriad of threats, including habitat loss due to urban encroachment, sea-level rise caused by climate change, alteration of native habitats by invasive plants, non-native predators, and exposure to mercury and other pollutants. The FWS is in the process of revising the existing recovery plan for California clapper rails and is including the rail in a multispecies recovery plan directed towards imperiled salt-marsh ecosystems. Sound scientific information is critical to the success of any recovery plan, but even more so when dealing with complex multiple-species interactions within an ecosystem.

Endangered Species Bulletin↗
USGS2020

Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Alaska, Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, Califo↗
USGS2022

Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and economic value to sea-level rise in a Puget Sound estuary

Sea-level rise (SLR) and obstructions to sediment delivery pose challenges to the persistence of estuarine habitats and the ecosystem services they provide. Restoration actions and sediment management strategies may help mitigate such challenges by encouraging the vertical accretion of sediment in and horizontal migration of tidal forests and marshes. We used a process-based soil accretion model (Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model) combined with a habitat classification model (MOSAICS) to estimate the effects of SLR, suspended sediment, and inland habitat migration on estuarine habitats, soil carbon accumulation, and economic value of climate change mitigation of carbon accumulation (social cost of carbon dioxide) in a macrotidal estuary in the northwest USA over 100 years (2011 to 2110). Under present-day sediment levels, we projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 100 cm SLR, but substantial area converted to transitional (low) salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 100 cm SLR. Increasing sediment availability increased the projected resilience of transitional salt marsh to SLR but did not prevent declines in high marsh area. Projected total carbon accumulation plateaued or declined with ≥ 100 cm SLR, yet the economic value of carbon accumulation continued to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service was resilient to SLR. Doubling or tripling sediment availability increased projected carbon accumulation up to 7.69 and 14.2 kg m −2 and increased total economic value up to $373,000 and $710,000, respectively. Allowing marsh migration supported conversion of upland to freshwater marsh, with slight increases in carbon accumulation. These results inform climate adaptation planning for wetland managers seeking to understand the resilience of estuarine habitats and ecosystem services to SLR under multiple management strategies.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Data management challenges in species distribution modeling

An important component in the fields of ecology and conservation biology is understanding the environmental conditions and geographic areas that are suitable for a given species to inhabit. A common tool in determining such areas is species distribution modeling which uses computer algorithms to determine the spatial distribution of organisms. Most commonly the correlative relationships between the organism and environmental variables are the primary consideration. The data requirements for this type of modeling consist of known presence and possibly absence locations of the species as well as the values of environmental or climatic covariates thought to define the species habitat suitability at these locations. These covariate data are generally extracted from remotely sensed imagery, interpolated/gridded historical climate data, or downscaled climate model output. Traditionally, ecologists and biologists have constructed species distribution models using workflows and data that reside primarily on their local workstations or networks. This workflow is becoming challenging as scientists increasingly try to use these modeling techniques to inform management decisions under different climate change scenarios. This challenge stems from the fact that remote sensing products, gridded historical climate, and downscaled climate models are not only increasing in spatial and temporal resolution but proliferating as well. Any rigorous assessment of uncertainty requires a computationally intensive sensitivity analysis accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The scientists fitting these models generally do not have the background in computer science required to take advantage of recent advances in web-service based data acquisition, remote high-powered data processing, or scientific workflow systems. Ecologists in the field of modeling are in need of a tractable platform that abstracts the inherent computational complexity required to incorporate the burgeoning field of coupled climate and ecological response modeling. In this paper we describe the computational challenges in species distribution modeling and solutions using scientific workflow systems. We focus on the Software for Assisted Species Modeling (SAHM) a package within VisTrails, an open-source scientific workflow system.

Bulletin of the Technical Committee on Data Engine↗
USGS2021

Ecological engineering with oysters enhances coastal resilience efforts

Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to habitat loss, sea-level rise, and other climate change effects. Oyster-dominated eco-engineered reefs have been promoted as integral components of engineered habitats enhancing coastal resilience through provision of numerous ecological, morphological, and socio-economic services. However, the assessed ‘success’ of these eco-engineered oyster reefs remains variable across projects and locations, with their general efficacy in promoting coastal resilience, along with related services, often mixed at best. Understanding factors influencing the success of these eco-engineered habitats as valuable coastal management tools could greatly inform related future efforts. Here, we review past studies incorporating reef-building oysters for coastal resilience and enhanced ecosystem services. Our aims are to better understand their utility and limitations, along with critical knowledge gaps to better advance future applicability. Success depends largely on site selection, informed by physical, chemical and biological factors, and adjacent habitats and bottom types. Better understanding of oyster metapopulation dynamics, tolerance and adaptation to changing conditions, and interactions with adjacent habitats will help to better identify suitable locations, and design more effective eco-engineered reefs. These eco-engineered reefs provide a useful tool to assist in developing coastal resilience in the face of climate change and sea level rise.

Ecological Engineering↗