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Assessing the vulnerability of military installations in the coterminous United States to potential biome shifts resulting from rapid climate change

Climate change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge future military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, invasive species, etc. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low - B1, moderate - A1B and high - A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess vulnerability of installations (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature relative to historical conditions. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of military training and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased atmospheric temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in the coming decades in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connectic

Water withdrawals in the Black Warrior-Tombigbee Basin and Alcorn County, Mississippi, 1985-87

Public-supply and industrial water withdrawals were inventoried for the Mississippi part of the Black Warrior-Tombigbee Basin and for Alcorn County, Mississippi. The study area, located in the northeastern part of the State, is largely forested or agricultural land, with some industries near the larger towns. A water-resource capacity analysis was done to determine a risk rating for each inventoried facility, evaluating the likelihood of the facility exceeding the capacity of its current source of water at the existing level of use. Published reports and potentiometric maps were used in this analysis to determine the source capacity and the effects withdrawals have had on each water source. The public-supply and industrial water withdrawals in the basin are from ground water, with the exception of the city of Columbus. About 97 percent of the total withdrawal of 80 million gallons per day is from ground water. Water-supply systems in three areas were determined to have a high risk of exceeding the water-resource capacity: the Tupelo-Lee County area, the West Point (Clay County) area, and the Starkville (Oktibbeha County) area.

Mississippi

Airborne lidar accuracy analysis for dual photogrammetric and lidar sensor pilot project in Colorado, 2019

This report presents accuracy assessment results of the light detection and ranging (lidar) data collected in Colorado during a pilot project in fall 2019. The purpose of the pilot project was to assess the accuracy of lidar and imagery data collected simultaneously for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Imagery Program and the U.S. Geological Survey National Geospatial Program 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). A multiagency group consisting of U.S. Department of the Interior agencies and USDA agencies participated in the effort. Department of the Interior agencies included Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and U.S. Geological Survey; USDA agencies included the Farm Services Agency, the Natural Resource Conservation Service, and U.S. Forest Service. This pilot project was designed to help determine if a lidar sensor system has the potential to meet future 3DEP topographic lidar collection requirements, ideally at the same altitudes and leaf-on times that National Agriculture Imagery Program is flown. The airborne sensor system from Leica Geosystems (part of Hexagon) (hereafter referred to as dual sensor system) was used in the pilot project and can collect imagery and three-dimensional point cloud data concurrently. This report examines the characteristics of lidar data from a geometric accuracy perspective. Field surveys were performed to evaluate the three-dimensional absolute and relative accuracy of the airborne lidar data and to determine if the data met 3DEP specifications.

Colorado

Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

Water from many of California's coastal rivers has been used for a wide variety of development ventures, including major agricultural diversions, hydropower generation, and contaminant assimilation from industry, agriculture and logging. Anthropogenic impacts often degrade water quality and decrease the quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. Reallocating streamflow away from uses that degrade water quality to uses that foster higher water quality is a critical step in restoring riverine habitat and the anadromous fish that rely on that habitat for a portion of their life cycle. Reallocation always brings with it the need to examine the economic efficiency of the proposed changes. If the dollar benefits of improving water quality are greater than the costs, the criterion of improving economic efficiency is satisfied, a fact that can be highly persuasive to decision makers contemplating reallocation. Previous related studies have examined nonmarket benefits of the Trinity River in northern California (Douglas and Taylor, 1998; Douglas and Taylor, 1999abc) but nothing of this kind had been done on the Klamath River, another system with numerous uses for and competition over water in times of drought. An economic survey is nearing completion for the mid- to lower Klamath River, including the Scott, Shasta, and Salmon Rivers, but excluding the Trinity River. This survey provides valuable insights about the magnitude of the benefits and nature of the costs of reallocating water from market uses to instream flows that improve water quality and assist in the recovery of Klamath River fish stocks. Preliminary survey results (Douglas and Johnson, 2002; Douglas and Sleeper, In Prep.) indicate that about 234,000 California, Oregon, and Nevada households made recreation trips to the Klamath River Basin 1997-1998 and that these users spent about $372 million on trip related expenditures. Clearly the prosperity of the region is closely linked to the demand for mid- and lower Klamath River Basin recreation trips. Further, respondents indicated that they would make roughly 36% more recreational trips per annum to the Klamath if the water quality and the fishery were restored to an unspoiled condition. Using two distinct types of survey data, these additional trips would yield benefits with a present value of approximately $9.6 billion (at a discount rate of 7.5%). Calculating costs to restore the fishery and raise water quality involved five major hypothetical restoration activities: (1) purchasing Klamath project farmland and environmentally sensitive forest lands, (2) allocating more water down the Trinity River to enhance the quantity and quality of Klamath flows below the confluence, (3) removing four mainstem dams along the Klamath River and losing their associated hydropower production, (4) eliminating all harvest of Klamath-Trinity fish stocks for a 12-year period including the acquisition of fishing rights from both tribal and commercial marine fishermen, and (5) operating all Klamath-Trinity fish hatcheries to restore self-reproducing stocks. In total, restoration costs were estimated to be about $1.7 to $2.3 billion. If the assumptions used in this study are valid, it is clear that the benefits ($9.6B) outweigh the costs of restoring water quality and the fishery. The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

Open-File Report

Modeling Flood Plain Hydrology and Forest Productivity of Congaree Swamp, South Carolina

An ecological field and modeling study was conducted to examine the flood relations of backswamp forests and park trails of the flood plain portion of Congaree National Park, S.C. Continuous water level gages were distributed across the length and width of the flood plain portion - referred to as 'Congaree Swamp' - to facilitate understanding of the lag and peak flood coupling with stage of the Congaree River. A severe and prolonged drought at study start in 2001 extended into late 2002 before backswamp zones circulated floodwaters. Water levels were monitored at 10 gaging stations over a 4-year period from 2002 to 2006. Historical water level stage and discharge data from the Congaree River were digitized from published sources and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) archives to obtain long-term daily averages for an upstream gage at Columbia, S.C., dating back to 1892. Elevation of ground surface was surveyed for all park trails, water level gages, and additional circuits of roads and boundaries. Rectified elevation data were interpolated into a digital elevation model of the park trail system. Regression models were applied to establish time lags and stage relations between gages at Columbia, S.C., and gages in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river and backswamp within the park. Flood relations among backswamp gages exhibited different retention and recession behavior between flood plain reaches with greater hydroperiod in the lower reach than those in the upper and middle reaches of the Congaree Swamp. A flood plain inundation model was developed from gage relations to predict critical river stages and potential inundation of hiking trails on a real-time basis and to forecast the 24-hour flood In addition, tree-ring analysis was used to evaluate the effects of flood events and flooding history on forest resources at Congaree National Park. Tree cores were collected from populations of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), baldcypress (Taxodium distichum), water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica), green ash (Fraxinus pennslyvanica), laurel oak (Quercus laurifolia), swamp chestnut oak (Quercus michauxii), and sycamore (Plantanus occidentalis) within Congaree Swamp in highand low-elevation sites characteristic of shorter and longer flood duration and related to upriver flood controls and dam operation. Ring counts and dating indicated that all loblolly pine trees and nearly all baldcypress collections in this study are postsettlement recruits and old-growth cohorts, dating from 100 to 300 years in age. Most hardwood species and trees cored for age analysis were less than 100 years old, demonstrating robust growth and high site quality. Growth chronologies of loblolly pine and baldcypress exhibited positive and negative inflections over the last century that corresponded with climate history and residual effects of Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Stemwood production on average was less for trees and species on sites with longer flood retention and hydroperiod affected more by groundwater seepage and site elevation than river floods. Water level data provided evidence that stream regulation and operations of the Saluda Dam (post-1934) have actually increased the average daily water stage in the Congaree River. There was no difference in tree growth response by species or hydrogeomorphic setting to predam and postdam flood conditions and river stage. Climate-growth analysis showed that long-term growth variation is controlled more by spring/ summer temperatures in loblolly pine and by spring/summer precipitation in baldcypress than flooding history.

South Carolina

Simulation of water-table response to sea-level rise and change in recharge, Sandy Hook unit, Gateway National Recreation Area, New Jersey

The Sandy Hook Unit, Gateway National Recreation Area (hereafter Sandy Hook) in New Jersey is a 10-kilometer-long spit visited by thousands of people each year who take advantage of the historical and natural resources and recreational opportunities. The historical and natural resources are threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), changes in precipitation and groundwater recharge, and changes in the frequency and severity of coastal storms. Fresh groundwater resources are important to the ecosystems of Sandy Hook. The Bayside Holly Forest, one of only two known old-growth American holly ( Ilex opaca ) maritime forests, is particularly vulnerable to global climate change because of the proximity of the water table to land surface in low-lying areas and the potential for saltwater intrusion and inundation. The shallow groundwater-flow system on Sandy Hook is dominated by recharge from precipitation, fresh groundwater discharge to evapotranspiration (ET), discharge to surface seeps, and submarine groundwater discharge (groundwater discharging directly to the ocean). A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates the shallow groundwater-flow system and interaction with surrounding saltwater boundaries was constructed to simulate multi-density groundwater flow, treating the freshwater/saltwater transition zone as a sharp interface that represents the half-seawater surface. Groundwater-flow simulations completed for this study include a Baseline scenario, three SLR scenarios (0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 meter [m]), two Recharge scenarios—a 10-percent Increased Recharge scenario and a 10-percent Decreased Recharge scenario—and a scenario with 0.6 m of SLR and 10-percent increase in recharge. The Recharge scenarios indicate the system is not sensitive to a 10-percent increase or decrease in recharge from the Baseline scenario. In the SLR scenarios, SLR causes the water table to rise, resulting in increased fresh groundwater discharge to ET and seeps, and reduced submarine discharge compared to the Baseline scenario. The increased discharge to ET and seeps causes the magnitude of water-table rise to be less than that of SLR, which in turn causes the thickness of the freshwater lens to thin, reducing the depth to the half-seawater surface. Water-table rise associated with SLR diminishes the thickness of the unsaturated zone; comparing the Baseline and the 0.6-m SLR scenarios, the area where the simulated water table is above land surface increases by 50.6 hectares, from about 0.9 to 7.4 percent of the land area of Sandy Hook. Areas where the simulated water table is above land surface are likely to be emergent wetlands and contain freshwater if they are tens of meters or more from the shoreline. The steady-state simulations indicate that the percentage of land where the half-seawater surface is less than 9 m below the water table increases from about 2.5 percent (20 hectares) to about 9 percent (74 hectares) with 0.6 m of SLR. In low-lying areas close to the Sandy Hook Bay shoreline, the half-seawater surface is simulated to be as much as 20 m closer to the water table with SLR of 0.6 m. Transient salinization, if any, of shallow groundwater from increased frequency or severity of storm-driven inundation is not included in the analysis. Natural resources on Sandy Hook, particularly the Bayside Holly Forest, may be adversely affected by the rising water table associated with SLR. Freshwater emergent wetlands may increase in area at the expense of other ecosystem assemblages occurring in or on the edges of low-lying enclosed depressions. Cultural resources close to the water table, such as existing basements of structures, may be adversely affected.

New Jersey

Two Holocene paleofire records from Peten, Guatemala: Implications for natural fire regime and prehispanic Maya land use

Although fire was arguably the primary tool used by the Maya to alter the landscape and extract resources, little attention has been paid to biomass burning in paleoenvironmental reconstructions from the Maya lowlands. Here we report two new well-dated, high-resolution records of biomass burning based on analysis of macroscopic fossil charcoal recovered from lacustrine sediment cores. The records extend from the early Holocene, through the full arc of Maya prehistory, the Colonial, and post-Colonial periods (~ 9000 cal yr BP to the present). (Hereafter BP) The study sites, Lago Paixban and Lago Puerto Arturo, are located in northern Peten, Guatemala. Results provide the first quantitative analysis from the region demonstrating that frequent fires have occurred in the closed canopy forests since at least the early Holocene (~ 9000 BP), prior to occupation by sedentary agriculturalists. Following the arrival of agriculture around 4600 BP, the system transitioned from climate controlled to anthropogenic control. During the Maya period, changes in fire regime are muted and do not appear to be driven by changes in climate conditions. Low charcoal influx and fire frequency in the Earliest Preclassic period suggest that land use strategies may have included intensive agriculture much earlier than previously thought. Preliminary results showing concentrations of soot/black-carbon during the middle and late Preclassic periods are lower than modern background values, providing intriguing implications regarding the efficiency of Maya fuel consumption.

Peten

Regional forest land cover characterisation using medium spatial resolution satellite data

Increasing demands on forest resources require comprehensive, consistent and up-to-date information on those resources at spatial scales appropriate for management decision-making and for scientific analysis. While such information can be derived using coarse spatial resolution satellite data (e.g. Tucker et al. 1984; Zhu and Evans 1994; Cihlar et al. 1996; Cihlar et al., Chapter 12), many regional applications require more spatial and thematic details than can be derived by using coarse resolution imagery. High spatial resolution satellite data such as IKONOS and Quick Bird images (Aplin et al. 1997), though usable for deriving detailed forest information (Culvenor, Chapter 9), are currently not feasible for wall-to-wall regional applications because of extremely high data cost, huge data volume, and lack of contiguous coverage over large areas. Forest studies over large areas have often been accomplished using data acquired by intermediate spatial resolution sensor systems, including the Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) of Landsat, the High Resolution Visible (HRV) of the Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), and the Linear Image Self-Scanner (LISS) of the Indian Remote Sensing satellite. These sensor systems are more appropriate for regional applications because they can routinely produce spatially contiguous data over large areas at relatively low cost, and can be used to derive a host of forest attributes (e.g. Cohen et al. 1995; Kimes et al. 1999; Cohen et al. 2001; Huang et al. 2001; Sugumaran 2001). Of the above intermediate spatial resolution satellites, Landsat is perhaps the most widely used in various types of land remote sensing applications, in part because it has provided more extensive spatial and temporal coverage of the globe than any other intermediate resolution satellite. Spatially contiguous Landsat data have been developed for many regions of the globe (e.g. Lunetta and Sturdevant 1993; Fuller et al. 1994b; Skole et al. 1997), and a circa 1990 Landsat image data set covering the entire land area of the globe has also been developed recently (Jones and Smith 2001). An acquisition strategy aimed at acquiring at least one cloud free image per year for the entire land area of the globe has been initiated for Landsat-7 (Arvidson et al. 2001). This will probably ensure the continued dominance of Landsat in the near future.

Book chapter

Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwestern United States

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifer systems across the United States. The Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the region to groundwater contamination by synthesizing baseline knowledge of groundwater-quality conditions in 16 basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. The improved understanding of aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability to contamination is assisting in the development of tools that water managers can use to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources. Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate con­tamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamina­tion and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explana­tory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions. The classifiers were unbiased and fit the observed data well, and misclassifications were primarily due to statistical sampling error in the training datasets. The classifiers were designed to predict concentrations to be in one of six classes for nitrate, and one of seven classes for arsenic. Each classification scheme allowed for identification of areas with concentrations that were equal to or exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard. Whereas 2.4 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers in the study area was predicted to equal or exceed this standard for nitrate (10 milligrams per liter as N; mg/L), 42.7 percent was predicted to equal or exceed the standard for arsenic (10 micrograms per liter; μg/L). Areas predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for nitrate include basins in central Arizona near Phoenix; the San Joaquin, Inland, and San Jacinto basins of California; and the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Much of the area predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for arsenic is within a belt of basins along the western portion of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province in Nevada, California, and Arizona. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations are substantially lower than the drinking-water standards in much of the study area—about 93.0 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers was less than one-half the standard for nitrate (5.0 mg/L), and 50.2 percent was less than one-half the standard for arsenic (5.0 μg/L).

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Assessment method for epithermal gold deposits in northeast Washington State using weights-of-evidence GIS modeling

The weights-of-evidence analysis, a quantitative mineral resource mapping tool, is used to delineate favorable areas for epithermal gold deposits and to predict future exploration activity of the mineral industry for similar deposits in a four-county area (222 x 277 km), including the Okanogan and Colville National Forests of northeastern Washington. Modeling is applied in six steps: (1) building a spatial digital database, (2) extracting predictive evidence for a particular deposit, based on an exploration model, (3) calculating relative weights for each predictive map, (4) combining the geologic evidence maps to predict the location of undiscovered mineral resources and (5) measuring the intensity of recent exploration activity by use of mining claims on federal lands, and (6) combining mineral resource and exploration activity into an assessment model of future mining activity. The analysis is accomplished on a personal computer using ArcView GIS platform with Spatial Analyst and Weights-of-Evidence software. In accord with the descriptive model for epithermal gold deposits, digital geologic evidential themes assembled include lithologic map units, thrust faults, normal faults, and igneous dikes. Similarly, geochemical evidential themes include placer gold deposits and gold and silver analyses from stream sediment (silt) samples from National Forest lands. Fifty mines, prospects, or occurrences of epithermal gold deposits, the training set, define the appropriate a really-associated terrane. The areal (or spatial) correlation of each evidential theme with the training set yield predictor theme maps for lithology, placer sites and normal faults. The weights-of-evidence analysis disqualified the thrust fault, dike, and gold and silver silt analyses evidential themes because they lacked spatial correlation with the training set. The decision to accept or reject evidential themes as predictors is assisted by considering probabilistic data consisting of weights and contrast values calculated for themes according to areal correlation with the training sites. Predictor themes having acceptable weights and contrast values are combined into a preliminary model to predict the locations of undiscovered epithermal gold deposits. This model facilitates ranking of tracts as non-permissive, permissive or favorable categories based on exclusionary, passive, and active criteria through evaluation of probabilistic data provided by interaction of predictor themes. The method is very similar to the visual inspection method of drawing conclusions from anomalies on a manually overlain system of maps. This method serves as a model for future mineral assessment procedures because of its objective nature. To develop a model to predict future exploration activity, the locations of lode mining claims were summarized for 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1996. Land parcels containing historic claims were identified either as those with mining claims present in 1980 or valid claims present in 1985. Current claim parcels were identified as those containing valid lode claims in either 1990 or 1996. A consistent parcel contains both historic and current claims. The epithermal gold and mining claim activity models were combined into an assessment (or mineral resource-activity) model to assist in land use decisions by providing a prediction of mineral exploration activity on federal land in the next decade. Ranks in the assessment model are: (1) no activity, (2) low activity, (3) low to moderate activity, (4) moderate activity and (5) high activity.

Washington

Understanding ecological response to physical characteristics in side channels of a large floodplain-river ecosystem

Side channels in large floodplain rivers serve a variety of important ecological roles, particularly in reaches where habitat conditions have been degraded or diminished. We developed hypotheses regarding side channel ecological structure whereby we expected species richness of young-of-year fishes to generally be higher in shallower, more physically heterogeneous side channels with lower velocities, with differences based on reproductive guild. We also hypothesized species richness of adult fishes to be higher in side channels with greater heterogeneity that could support diverse foraging resources and provide refugia during extreme flow conditions. To test these hypotheses, we used a 28-year fish community dataset from the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Across six study reaches, we assessed metrics of side channel physical size, heterogeneity, and connectivity that were hypothesized to explain variance of fish community response, while accounting for site-level factors across 52 side channels using multilevel models. We then used these side channel-level characteristics in a K-means cluster analysis to classify 1126 side channels across 32 reaches of the river system. Our results indicated that the relative explanatory contributions of physical metrics varied by response variable, providing varying evidence in support of our hypotheses, and indicating that different forms of heterogeneity matter in different ways. Side channel-level factors were more explanatory of fish community responses in side channels of upstream reaches compared to downstream reaches and percent wet forest was the most explanatory side channel-level factor of fish community responses across all models. Our classification of side channels indicated strong spatial contrasts in the abundance and diversity of side channels across reaches. Scaling up to understand how the diversity and abundance of different types of side channels contributes to landscape-scale ecological functions and processes would be useful for establishing targets for reach-scale physical heterogeneity.

Upper Mississippi River and Illinois River

Climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.

Conservation Science and Practice

Birds, breakpoints, and baselines: How citizen science data can reveal ecological boundaries in Kenya’s Upper Tana watershed

Tropical watersheds are increasingly threatened by climate change, land-use conversion, and resource extraction, yet conventional biodiversity monitoring in these systems is often spatially and temporally limited. Citizen science offers a complementary approach, enabling biodiversity data collection over large areas that can supplement professional scientific surveys. We analyzed 10 years (2012–2022) of Upper Tana Watershed bird data from the Kenya Bird Map project, covering 114 pentads (9 × 9 km) within a 17,000 km 2 watershed to assess patterns of bird community composition and distribution across this watershed and to also evaluate the effects of environmental variables, seasonality, and sampling effort to help inform improvements in future citizen science projects. Citizen (or community) scientists recorded 575 species (>50% of Kenya’s total avifauna) in 74 families. Asymptotic species accumulation indicates that most probable species present in the watershed were detected. Threshold indicator taxa analysis revealed distinct ecological boundaries along elevation (∼1,500 m), precipitation (∼1,100 mm), and mean temperature (∼19°C) gradients, corresponding to a turnover from xeric savanna to mesic montane forest assemblages. Notably, bird communities showed little seasonal differentiation between wet and dry periods, consistent with dominance by resident year-round species. Data limitations including uneven survey distribution and frequency, absence of abundance metrics, and coarse representation of local environmental conditions that likely reduced our ability to detect fine-scale species–habitat relationships. Addressing these gaps through spatially balanced sampling at greater resolution, greater survey frequency in underrepresented areas, and improved capture of habitat metrics could strengthen the use of citizen-science bird data for watershed bioassessment. Our findings demonstrate that structured citizen-science initiatives can identify ecological boundaries and inform adaptive management of tropical socio-ecological systems under rapid environmental change.

Upper Tana watershed

Using citizen scientists to collect oxygen and hydrogen isotope data in southern Nevada

What is Citizen Science? Citizen science programs provide a means for Federal and non-Federal government agencies to make science more engaging, transparent, and accessible by partnering with the public for the purpose of problem solving, data collection, and monitoring. Public volunteers become directly involved in local research, thereby engaging in scientific projects. The public has already been included in existing citizen science programs that cover a broad range of disciplines, such as ecology, hydrology, and tectonics. Citizen science advances research while simultaneously fostering a sense of involvement and interest from the public. Beginning in 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and National Park Service collaborated with private, non-profit partners to inventory, survey, and rehabilitate springs in Clark County, Nevada. The USGS maintains the National Water Information System (NWIS), a publicly available online database of water-resources data for the Nation, and the agency is interested in using citizen science to add geochemical data from springs in southern Nevada. From 2021 to 2023, the USGS directly worked with citizen science partners, including the Springs Stewardship Institute and the Friends of Nevada Wilderness, to collect stable isotope and tritium samples from southern Nevada springs. The citizen science volunteers were provided the training and supplies for proper sample collection by USGS staff. As the citizen science partners traveled and hiked to the remote spring sites to complete spring surveys and perform restoration activities, they collected stable isotope and tritium samples for the USGS. Samples were shipped to national USGS laboratories for analysis, and the results were uploaded to the NWIS database (U.S. Geological Survey, 2024).

Nevada

LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management

Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing refinement of the LANDFIRE vegetation and fuel data is necessary to improve the quality and usability of the data and to capture landscape disturbance. LANDFIRE relies on Landsat multi-spectral imagery to produce and update vegetation and fuel data. The deep Landsat archive provides data needed for vegetation classification, change analysis, and historical disturbance characterization, for which LANDFIRE has used more than 24,000 image scenes since the program’s inception. In addition, LF 2010 used airborne and spaceborne lidar, and spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map vegetation structure in areas where ground-based field information was lacking, including Alaska and U.S.-affiliated islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. The mapping of insular areas is new for the 2010 data release; previous versions of LANDFIRE were limited to the conterminous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii.

Earthzine

A geographic information system tool for aquatic resource conservation in the Red and Sabine River Watersheds of the southeast United States

Our goal was to build a geographic information system (GIS) tool to enhance modeling and hypothesis testing relevant to watersheds and fish fauna of the Red and Sabine Rivers in the southeastern United States. Species of concern were identified from wildlife action plans and Web sites. Spatial distributions of fish species and mercury in fillets were delineated using data from states. Public georeferenced data were obtained on land cover, soil type, forest canopy, impervious surfaces, wastewater facilities and 303(d) impaired waters. Overlay maps highlighted patterns across 8-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUCs). Bossier City, Louisiana and Beaumont, Texas areas displayed impervious surfaces over 10% and 303(d) waters per HUC were 20% and 8%, respectively. Because bowfin (Amia calva) (n=299) and bass (Micropterus spp.) (n=1493) occurred in up to 44% of HUCs and fillets contained elemental mercury concentrations across ranges monitored, they were appropriate indicators of bioavailable mercury. Of the total fish number showing >0.5ppm, 81% of records were derived from bowfin and bass, and stepwise multiple linear regressions indicated fish with mercury at these concentrations correlated with environmental variables. Detrended correspondence analysis showed total species occurrence and environmental relationships significant, where 81.6% of the variability in fish occurrence was explained by impervious surface, land cover other than canopy or impervious surface (such as wetlands and agricultural area) and canopy (forest type). Two-way indicator species analysis delineated species co-occurrence in HUCs (14 groups) and similarity of species composition (nine groups). Results identified three HUC groupings as potential targets for managerial interest. Quality control concerns for GIS development included site name data and priority rankings of critical fish species. This tool can be used to support modeling and trend analyses for several purposes, such as those relevant for developing and reporting on water quality standards and critical habitat assessments.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas

Concentrations and loads of suspended sediment and nutrients in surface water of the Yakima River basin, Washington, 1999-2000 [electronic resource] : with an analysis of trends in concentrations

Spatial and temporal variations in concentrations and loads of suspended sediment and nutrients in surface water of the Yakima River Basin were assessed using data collected during 1999?2000 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Samples were collected at 34 sites located throughout the Basin in August 1999 using a Lagrangian sampling design, and also were collected weekly and monthly from May 1999 through January 2000 at three of the sites. Nutrient and sediment data collected at various time intervals from 1973 through 2001 by the USGS, Bureau of Reclamation, Washington State Department of Ecology, and Roza-Sunnyside Board of Joint Control were used to assess trends in concentrations. During irrigation season (mid-March to mid-October), concentrations of suspended sediment and nutrients in the Yakima River increase as relatively pristine water from the forested headwaters moves downstream and mixes with discharges from streams, agricultural drains, and wastewater treatment plants. Concentrations of nutrients also depend partly on the proportions of mixing between river water and discharges: in years of ample water supply in headwater reservoirs, more water is released during irrigation season and there is more dilution of nutrients discharged to the river downstream. For example, streamflow from river mile (RM) 103.7 to RM 72 in August 1999 exceeded streamflow in July 1988 by a factor of almost 2.5, but loads of total nitrogen and phosphorus discharged to the reach from streams, drains, and wastewater treatment plants were only 1.2 and 1.1 times larger. In years of ample water supply, canal water, which is diverted from either the Yakima or Naches River, makes up more of the flow in drains and streams carrying agricultural return flows. The canal water dilutes nutrients (especially nitrate) transported to the drains and streams in runoff from fields and in discharges from subsurface field drains and the shallow ground-water system. The average concentration of total nitrogen in drains and streams discharging to the Yakima River from RM 103.7 to RM 72 in August 1999 was 2.63 mg/L, and in July 1988 was 3.16 mg/L; average concentrations of total phosphorus were 0.20 and 0.26 mg/L. After irrigation season, streamflow in agricultural drains decreases because irrigation water is no longer diverted from the Yakima and Naches Rivers. As a result, concentrations of total nitrogen in drains increase because nitrate, which constitutes much of total nitrogen, continues to enter the drains from subsurface drains and shallow ground water. Concentrations of total phosphorus and suspended sediment often decrease, because they are transported to the drains in runoff of irrigation water from fields. In Granger Drain, concentrations of total nitrogen ranged from 2-4 mg/L during irrigation season and increased to about 6 mg/L after irrigation season, and concentrations of total phosphorus, as high as 1 mg/L, decreased to about 0.2 mg/L. In calendar year 1999, Moxee Drain transported an average of 28,000 lb/d (pounds per day) of suspended sediment, 380 lb/d of total nitrogen, and 46 lb/d of total phosphorus to the Yakima River. These loads were about half the average loads transported by Granger Drain during the same period. Average streamflows were similar for the two drains, so the difference in loads was due to differences in constituent concentrations: those in Moxee Drain were about 40-60 percent less than those in Granger Drain. Loads of suspended sediment and total phosphorus in Moxee and Granger Drains were nearly four times higher during irrigation season than during the non-irrigation season because with increased flow during irrigation season, concentrations of suspended sediment and total phosphorus are usually higher. Loads of nitrate in the drains were about the same in both seasons because nitrate concentrations are higher during the non-irrigation season.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Spring distribution in Winona County, Minnesota, USA and the relationship with geologic strata in a karst landscape

Karst aquifers are important groundwater resources, but are vulnerable to contamination due to relatively rapid subsurface transport. Springs, points where the landscape and water table intersect and cold groundwater discharges, link aquifer systems with land surfaces and water bodies. As such, in many regions, they are critical to the viability of lakes, streams and cold-water fish communities. An understanding of where springs are located is important to watershed, fishery and environmental management efforts in karst regions. To better understand spatial distribution of springs and as a potential method for identifying variables that characterize locations of springs for improved land and watershed management, a nearest-neighbor analysis and a discriminant function analysis (DFA) of springs were conducted in Winona County, Minnesota, USA, a karst landscape. Nearest-neighbor analysis examined the spatial spring distribution. Twenty-two variables describing the locations of springs were analyzed to ascertain their ability to discriminate correct aquifer unit or bedrock unit classification for each spring. Springs were clumped with the highest densities in the lowest elevations. Springs were correctly assigned to aquifer units and bedrock units with eight and 11 landscape variables, respectively. Forest land cover was the only land cover type contributing to spring discrimination. Consideration of upland human activities, particularly in forested areas, on spring discharge along with a better understanding of characteristics describing spring locations could lead to better management activities that locate and protect springs and their important contributions to regional ecohydrology.

Minnesota