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USGS2024

Understanding key mineral supply chain dynamics using economics-informed material flow analysis and Bayesian optimization

The low-carbon energy transition requires significant increases in production for many mineral commodities. Understanding demand, technological requirements, and prices associated with this production increase requires understanding the supply chain dynamics of many minerals simultaneously, and via a consistent framework. A generalized economics-informed material flow method, global materials modeling using Bayesian optimization, captures the market dynamics of key mineral commodities. The method relies only on a limited set of widely available historical data as input, enabling quantification of economic relationships (elasticities) for supply chain components where data are sparse, and relationships cannot be obtained via traditional statistical approaches. Building upon established material flow analysis (MFA) and economic modeling techniques, Bayesian optimization was applied to fit an economics-informed MFA model to global historical demand, supply, and price for aluminum, copper, gold, lead, nickel, silver, iron, tin, and zinc. This approach enables estimates for the evolution of ore grades, mine costs, refining charges, sector-specific demand, and scrap collection for each commodity. Economic relationships were quantified and compared with a database compiled from the literature, including 1333 values from 213 analyses across 65 publications. Discrepancies in methods and limited coverage make use of these parameters in modeling efforts difficult. This work provides a single, homogeneous, probabilistic approach to identifying economic relationships across mineral supply chains, with uncertainty quantification, a literature database for comparison, and a modeling framework in which to use them. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2021

Deposit classification scheme for the Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative Global Geochemical Database

A challenge for the global economy is to meet the growing demand for commodities used in today’s advanced technologies. Critical minerals are commodities (for example, elements, compounds, minerals) deemed vital to the economic and national security of individual countries that are vulnerable to supply disruption. The national geological agencies of Australia, Canada, and the United States recently joined forces to advance understanding and foster development of critical mineral resources in their respective countries through the Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative (CMMI). An initial goal of the CMMI is to fill the knowledge gap on the abundance of critical minerals in ores. To do this, the CMMI compiled modern multielement geochemical data generated by each agency on ore samples collected from historical and active mines and prospects from around the world. To identify relationships between critical minerals, deposit types, deposit environments, and mineral systems, a unified deposit classification scheme was needed. This report describes the scheme developed by the CMMI to classify the initial release of geochemical data. In 2021, the resulting database—along with basic query, statistical analysis, and display tools—will be served to the public through a web-based portal managed by Geoscience Australia. The database will enable users to trace critical minerals through mineral systems and identify individual deposits or deposit types that are potential sources of critical minerals.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1982

Geochemical and geostatistical evaluation, Arkansas Canyon Planning Unit, Fremont and Custer Counties, Colorado

A mineral assessment of the Arkansas Canyon Planning Unit was undertaken by Barringer Resources Inc., under the terms of contract YA-553-CTO-100 with the Bureau of Land Management, Colorado State Office. The study was based on a geochemical-geostatistical survey in which 700 stream sediment samples were collected and analyzed for 25 elements. Geochemical results were interpreted by statistical processing which included factor, discriminant, multiple regression and characteristic analysis. The major deposit types evaluated were massive sulfide-base metal, sedimentary and magmatic uranium, thorium vein, magmatic segregation, and carbonatite related deposits. Results of the single element data and multivariate geostatistical analysis indicate that limited potential exists for base metal mineralization near the Horseshoe, El Plomo, and Green Mountain Mines. Thirty areas are considered to be anomalous with regard to one or more of the geochemical parameters evaluated during this study. The evaluation of carbonatite related mineralization was restricted due to the lack of geochemical data specific to this environment.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

Assessment of surface-water quantity and quality, Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 1947-2007

From the early mining days to the current tourism-based economy, the Eagle River watershed (ERW) in central Colorado has undergone a sequence of land-use changes that has affected the hydrology, habitat, and water quality of the area. In 2000, the USGS, in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Eagle County, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, Colorado Department of Transportation, City of Aurora, Town of Eagle, Town of Gypsum, Town of Minturn, Town of Vail, Vail Resorts, City of Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs Utilities, and Denver Water, initiated a retrospective analysis of surface-water quantity and quality in the ERW. Surface-water quantity data and surface-water quality data were obtained from local, State, and Federal agencies to assist in the analysis of surface-water conditions in the ERW 1947-2007. Surface-water-quality data from 293 sites and 12 different source agencies were compiled into 192 unique sites located on streams and rivers in the ERW. Approximately 39 percent of the unique sites had fewer than 5 samples; while 23 percent of the sites had more than 100 samples. Physical properties were the most abundant type of samples collected, with major ions, nutrients, and trace elements also commonly collected. For selected water-quality properties and constituents in the watershed, this report: (1) characterizes available water quantity and water-quality data, (2) identifies spatial and seasonal variability in water quantity and water quality, (3) provides comparisons to Federal and State water-quality standards or recommendations, (4) characterizes temporal changes in water quality, and (5) where possible, identifies potential causes of these changes. This report provides reconnaissance-level statistical summaries and comparisons of water-quality conditions and characteristics using available data within the ERW. The report also includes streamflow statistics such as: mean annual runoff totals, peak-flood-frequency recurrence intervals, and minimum 7-day mean streamflows for selected sites within the watershed. The spatial patterns for concentrations of trace metals (aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc) indicate an increase in dissolved concentrations of these metals near historical mining areas in the Eagle River and several tributaries near Belden. In general, concentrations decrease downstream from mining areas. Concentrations typically are near or below reporting limits in Gore Creek and other tributaries within the watershed. Concentrations for trace elements (arsenic, selenium, and uranium) in the watershed usually are below the reporting limit, and no prevailing spatial patterns were observed in the data. Step-trend analysis and temporal-trend analysis provide evidence that remediation of historical mining areas in the upper Eagle River have led to observed decreases in metals concentrations in many surface-waters. Comparison of pre- and post-remediation concentrations for many metals indicates significant decreases in metals concentrations for cadmium, manganese, and zinc at sites downstream from the Eagle Mine Superfund Site. Some sites show order of magnitude reductions in median concentrations between these two periods. Evaluation of monotonic trends for dissolved metals concentrations show downward trends at numerous sites in, and downstream from, historic mining areas. The spatial pattern of nutrients shows lower concentrations on many tributaries and on the Eagle River upstream from Red Cliff with increases in nutrients downstream of major urban areas. Seasonal variations show that for many nutrient species, concentrations tend to be lowest May-June and highest January-March. The gradual changes in concentrations between seasons may be related to dilution effects from increases and decreases in streamflow. Upward trends in nutrients between the towns of Gypsum and Avon were detected for nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus. An upward trend in nitrite was detected in Gore Creek. No trends were detected in un-ionized ammonia within the ERW. Exceedances of State water-quality standards (nitrite, nitrate, and un-ionized ammonia) and levels higher than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations (total phosphorus) occur in several areas within the ERW. The majority of the exceedances are from comparisons to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency total phosphorus recommendations. A positive correlation was observed between suspended sediment and total phosphorus. An upward trend in total dissolved solids in Gore Creek may be the result of increases in chloride salts. Highly significant trends were detected in sodium, potassium, and chloride with a significant upward trend in magnesium and a weakly significant upward trend in calcium. A quantitative analysis of the relative abundance of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium to the available anions suggests that chloride salts likely are the source for the detected upward trends because chloride is the only commonly occurring anion with a trend in Gore Greek. A potential source for the observed chloride salts may be the chemical anti-icing and deicing products used during winter road maintenance in municipal areas and on Interstate-70. A downward trend in dissolved solids in the Eagle River between Gypsum and Avon may be contributing to the detected trend on the Eagle River at Gypsum. Significant downward trends were detected in specific ions such as calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and silica. Measures of total dissolved solids as well as comparisons to specific ions show that in water-quality samples within the ERW concentrations generally are lower in the headwaters, with increases downstream from Wolcott. Differences in concentrations likely result from increased abundance of salt-bearing geologic units downstream from Avon. Few sites had measured concentrations that exceeded the State standards for chloride.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1978

A statistical summary and listing of the spectrographic analyses of heavy mineral concentrate and conventional, sieved stream-sediment samples, Silver City area, New Mexico

Geochemical sampling of a tier of eight 7 1/2-minute quadrangles bordered by latitudes 32° 45'and 33° 00' N. and longitudes 108° 00' and 108° 30' W. was begun in the fall of 1974 and continued seasonally until completion in the fall of 1976. These quadrangles are in southwest New Mexico and include the well-known mineral deposits of the Silver City area. The sampling was designed to gain semidetailed information on the metal-anomaly characteristics of the strongly mineralized area surrounding Silver City, New Mexico, and to seek geochemical clues for the continuation of these mineral deposits beneath overlying Tertiary volcanic rocks to the north. The data obtained within areas of known mineral deposits provide information on the metallogenic processes and metal suites that both relate and distinguish metal systems. Evaluation of this information relative to the regional geologic framework and the distribution of known mineral deposits will result in the identification of additional target areas for exploration, as well as further our understanding of the geochemical characteristics of mineralized areas. Extrapolation of models developed from the study of areas of known, exposed mineralization to areas covered by Tertiary volcanic rocks, such as the northern part of this tier of quadrangles, is a promising procedure for continuing research into geochemical-anomaly characteristics of covered mineral deposits. Preliminary interpretation of the data indicates that the southern part of the area in which Paleozoic-Mesozoic rocks and mineral deposits are exposed, should be reassessed to the classification and genesis of some of the deposits and to the types of mineral commodities that may be present. Some wholly new exploration targets within these areas are also indicated by some of the data. In addition, geochemical clues to buried mineral deposits, possibly representing continuation northward of some features of the Silver City mining district, have been observed in data from the northern, Tertiary volcanic areas. The meanings of these clues are still speculative. For this study, 917 stream-sediment and 921 stream-sediment concentrate samples were collected. The stream-sediment-concentrate samples, which consist of heavy minerals, were split into magnetic and nonmagnetic fractions, each of which was analyzed. This resulted in the analysis of 1,842 heavy-mineral and 917 sieved stream-sediment samples. Analytical results for all of the sample types are summarized statistically on table 1 and tabulated in their entirety on table 2.

New Mexico↗

USGS2017

Water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data (October 2014 through September 2015) and statistical summaries of data for streams in the Clark Fork Basin, Montana

Water, bed sediment, and biota were sampled in selected streams from Butte to near Missoula, Montana, as part of a monitoring program in the upper Clark Fork Basin of western Montana. The sampling program was led by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to characterize aquatic resources in the Clark Fork Basin, with emphasis on trace elements associated with historic mining and smelting activities. Sampling sites were located on the Clark Fork and selected tributaries. Water samples were collected periodically at 20 sites from October 2014 through September 2015. Bed-sediment and biota samples were collected once at 13 sites during August 2015. This report presents the analytical results and quality-assurance data for water-quality, bed-sediment, and biota samples collected at sites from October 2014 through September 2015. Water-quality data include concentrations of selected major ions, trace elements, and suspended sediment. At 12 sites, samples for analysis of dissolved organic carbon and turbidity were collected. In addition, samples for analysis of nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite) were collected at two sites. Daily values of mean suspended-sediment concentration and suspended-sediment discharge were determined for three sites. Seasonal daily values of turbidity were determined for four sites. Bed-sediment data include trace-element concentrations in the fine-grained fraction. Biological data include trace-element concentrations in whole-body tissue of aquatic benthic insects. Statistical summaries of water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data for sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin are provided for the period of record.

Montana↗

USGS1977

Chemical analysis, physical property tests, and lithologic description of cores and cuttings of lignite and overburden rocks from an area near Watkins, Colorado

The data presented in this report represents analytical and testing information from cores drilled by the Geophysics Department, Colorado School of Mines, assisted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The drilling was done in conjunction with the establishment of a geophysical testing facility by the Colorado School of Mines. Location of the study area and drill holes is shown in Figure 1. A total of 15 holes were drilled and geophysically logged; holes 9-1 and 7-11 were cored, and attempts to core hole 3-1 were made, but the lignite was very incompetent due to weathering and oxidation and recovery was very poor. Lithologic descriptions of the cores and cuttings for holes 9-1, 7-11, and 3-1 are listed on pages 13-21. Calculationdbased on hole 9-1 indicate that of the total lignite zone, 56 percent consists of partings and 44 percent is lignite. These percentages were obtained by statistical analysis of the core description and natural gamma logs of the hole. The total thickness of the lignite zone in hole 9-1 is approximately 18 m.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data (October 2015 through September 2016) and statistical summaries of data for streams in the Clark Fork Basin, Montana

Water, bed sediment, and biota were sampled in selected streams from Butte to near Missoula, Montana, as part of a monitoring program in the upper Clark Fork Basin of western Montana. The sampling program was led by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to characterize aquatic resources in the Clark Fork Basin, with emphasis on trace elements associated with historic mining and smelting activities. Sampling sites were on the Clark Fork and selected tributaries. Water samples were collected periodically at 20 sites from October 2015 through September 2016. Bed-sediment and biota samples were collected once at 13 sites during August 2016. This report presents the analytical results and quality-assurance data for water-quality, bed-sediment, and biota samples collected at sites from October 2015 through September 2016. Water-quality data include concentrations of selected major ions, trace elements, and suspended sediment. Samples for analysis of turbidity were collected at 13 sites, whereas samples for analysis of dissolved organic carbon were collected at 10 sites. In addition, samples for analysis of nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite) were collected at two sites. Daily values of mean suspended-sediment concentration and suspended-sediment discharge were determined for three sites. Seasonal daily values of turbidity were determined for five sites. Bed-sediment data include trace-element concentrations in the fine-grained (less than 0.063 millimeter) fraction. Biological data include trace-element concentrations in whole-body tissue of aquatic benthic insects. Statistical summaries of water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data for sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin are provided for the period of record.

Montana↗

USGS2018

A practical primer on geostatistics

Introduction The Challenge —Most geological phenomena are extraordinarily complex in their interrelationships and vast in their geographical extension. Ordinarily, engineers and geoscientists are faced with corporate or scientific requirements to properly prepare geological models with measurements involving a small fraction of the entire area or volume of interest. Exact description of a system such as an oil reservoir is neither feasible nor economically possible. The results are necessarily uncertain. Note that the uncertainty is not an intrinsic property of the systems; it is the result of incomplete knowledge by the observer. The Aim of Geostatistics —The main objective of geostatistics is the characterization of spatial systems that are incompletely known, systems that are common in geology. A key difference from classical statistics is that geostatistics uses the sampling location of every measurement. Unless the measurements show spatial correlation, the application of geostatistics is pointless. Ordinarily the need for additional knowledge goes beyond a few points, which explains the display of results graphically as fishnet plots, block diagrams, and maps. Geostatistical Methods —Geostatistics is a collection of numerical techniques for the characterization of spatial attributes using primarily two tools: probabilistic models, which are used for spatial data in a manner similar to the way in which time-series analysis characterizes temporal data, or pattern recognition techniques. The probabilistic models are used as a way to handle uncertainty in results away from sampling locations, making a radical departure from alternative approaches like inverse distance estimation methods. Differences with Time Series —On dealing with time-series analysis, users frequently concentrate their attention on extrapolations for making forecasts. Although users of geostatistics may be interested in extrapolation, the methods work at their best interpolating. This simple difference has significant methodological implications. Historical Remarks —As a discipline, geostatistics was firmly established in the 1960s by the French engineer Georges Matheron, who was interested in the appraisal of ore reserves in mining. Geostatistics did not develop overnight. Like other disciplines, it has built on previous results, many of which were formulated with different objectives in various fields. Pioneers —Seminal ideas conceptually related to what today we call geostatistics or spatial statistics are found in the work of several pioneers, including: 1940s: A.N. Kolmogorov in turbulent flow and N. Wiener in stochastic processing; 1950s: D. Krige in mining; 1960s: B. Mathern in forestry and L.S. Gandin in meteorology Calculations —Serious applications of geostatistics require the use of digital computers. Although for most geostatistical techniques rudimentary implementation from scratch is fairly straightforward, coding programs from scratch is recommended only as part of a practice that may help users to gain a better grasp of the formulations. Software —For professional work, the reader should employ software packages that have been thoroughly tested to handle any sampling scheme, that run as efficiently as possible, and that offer graphic capabilities for the analysis and display of results. This primer employs primarily the package Stanford Geomodeling Software (SGeMS) - recently developed at the Energy Resources Engineering Department at Stanford University - as a way to show how to obtain results practically. This applied side of the primer should not be interpreted as the notes being a manual for the use of SGeMS. The main objective of the primer is to help the reader gain an understanding of the fundamental concepts and tools in geostatistics. Organization of the Primer —The chapters of greatest importance are those covering kriging and simulation. All other materials are peripheral and are included for better comprehension of these main geostatistical modeling tools. The choice of kriging versus simulation is often a big puzzle to the uninitiated, let alone the different variants of both of them. Chapters 14, 18, and 19 are intended to shed light on those subjects. The critical aspect of assessing and modeling spatial correlation is covered in chapter 7. Chapters 2 and 3 review relevant concepts in classical statistics. Course Objectives —This course offers stochastic solutions to common problems in the characterization of complex geological systems. At the end of the course, participants should have: an understanding of the theoretical foundations of geostatistics; a good grasp of its possibilities and limitations; and reasonable familiarity with the SGeMS software, thus opening the possibility of practically applying geostatistics.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1989

Behaviour of abandoned room and pillar mines in Illinois

Little comprehensive information has been reported on the behaviour of room-and-pillar mines. The objective of this paper is to present case data on mine failures in the Illinois basin for use in practice. Presented are results of an ongoing study and details on the site characteristics of cases where sags have developed on the surface. Site data are reported to show the geologic, mining, and sag conditions that existed. Sags mainly develop from pillar, floor, or pillar-floor failure. The character of the sags depends upon the type of mine failure as well as the overburden response. Preliminary results show that the statistical no-risk tributary pressure decreases over 300% as the mine age increases from about 2 to 100 years at a long-term value of approximately 300 psi (2070 kPa). As more information is collected and more analysis is done, the allowable tributary pressure can be determined for different site conditions. A plot is also reported that depicts the relationship of the maximum subsidence to site conditions. It was found that the modified subsidence factor was heavily dependent upon the overburden rock thickness. ?? 1989 Chapman & Hall Ltd.

International Journal of Mining and Geological Eng↗

USGS2018

Mapping of compositional properties of coal using isometric log-ratio transformation and sequential Gaussian simulation – A comparative study for spatial ultimate analyses data

Chemical properties of coal largely determine coal handling, processing, beneficiation methods, and design of coal-fired power plants. Furthermore, these properties impact coal strength, coal blending during mining, as well as coal's gas content, which is important for mining safety. In order for these processes and quantitative predictions to be successful, safer, and economically feasible, it is important to determine and map chemical properties of coals accurately in order to infer these properties prior to mining. Ultimate analysis quantifies principal chemical elements in coal. These elements are C, H, N, S, O, and, depending on the basis, ash, and/or moisture. The basis for the data is determined by the condition of the sample at the time of analysis, with an “as-received” basis being the closest to sampling conditions and thus to the in-situ conditions of the coal. The parts determined or calculated as the result of ultimate analyses are compositions, reported in weight percent, and pose the challenges of statistical analyses of compositional data. The treatment of parts using proper compositional methods may be even more important in mapping them, as most mapping methods carry uncertainty due to partial sampling as well. In this work, we map the ultimate analyses parts of the Springfield coal from an Indiana section of the Illinois basin, USA, using sequential Gaussian simulation of isometric log-ratio transformed compositions. We compare the results with those of direct simulations of compositional parts. We also compare the implications of these approaches in calculating other properties using correlations to identify the differences and consequences. Although the study here is for coal, the methods described in the paper are applicable to any situation involving compositional data and its mapping.

Indiana↗

USGS2008

Protocol for monitoring metals in Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri: Version 1.0

The National Park Service is developing a monitoring plan for the Ozark National Scenic Riverways in southeastern Missouri. Because of concerns about the release of lead, zinc, and other metals from lead-zinc mining to streams, the monitoring plan will include mining-related metals. After considering a variety of alternatives, the plan will consist of measuring the concentrations of cadmium, cobalt, lead, nickel, and zinc in composite samples of crayfish ( Orconectes luteus or alternate species) and Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea ) collected periodically from selected sites. This document, which comprises a protocol narrative and supporting standard operating procedures, describes the methods to be employed prior to, during, and after collection of the organisms, along with procedures for their chemical analysis and quality assurance; statistical analysis, interpretation, and reporting of the data; and for modifying the protocol narrative and supporting standard operating procedures. A list of supplies and equipment, data forms, and sample labels are also included. An example based on data from a pilot study is presented.

Missouri↗

USGS2017

Long-term trends of surface-water mercury and methylmercury concentrations downstream of historic mining within the Carson River watershed

The Carson River is a vital water resource for local municipalities and migratory birds travelling the Pacific Flyway. Historic mining practices that used mercury (Hg) to extract gold from Comstock Lode ore has left much of the river system heavily contaminated with Hg, a practice that continues in many parts of the world today. Between 1998 and 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) collected and analyzed Carson River water for Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations resulting in a sixteen year record of unfiltered total mercury (uf.THg), filtered (dissolved) Hg (f.THg), total methylmercury (uf.MeHg), filtered MeHg (f.MeHg), and particulate-bound THg (p.THg) and MeHg (p.MeHg) concentrations. This represents one of the longest continuous records of Hg speciation data for any riverine system, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term trends in concentrations and annual loads. During the period of analysis, uf.THg concentration and load trended downward at rates of −0.85% and −1.8% per year, respectively. Conversely, the f.THg concentration increased at a rate of 1.7% per year between 1998 and 2005, and 4.9% per year between 2005 and 2013. Trends in flow-normalized partition coefficients for both Hg and MeHg suggest a statistically significant shift from the particulate to the filtered phase. The upwardly accelerating f.THg concentration and observed shift from the solid phase to the aqueous phase among the pools of Hg and MeHg within the river water column signals an increased risk of deteriorating ecological conditions in the lower basin with respect to Hg contamination. More broadly, the 16-year trend analysis, completed 140 years after the commencement of major Hg releases to the Carson River, provides a poignant example of the ongoing legacy left behind by gold and silver mining techniques that relied on Hg amalgamation, and a cautionary tale for regions still pursuing the practice in other countries.

Nevada↗

USGS1979

Spatial variation in total element concentration in soil within the Northern Great Plains coal region and Regional soil chemistry in Bighorn and Wind River basins, Wyoming and Montana

PART A: To objectively determine the changes in chemical character of an area subjected to mining and reclamation, prior information is needed. This study represents a broadscale inventory of total chemical composition of the surficial materials of the Northern Great Plains coal region (western North and South Dakota, eastern Montana, and northeastern Wyoming); data are given for 41 elements in A and C soil horizons. An unbalanced, nested, analysis-of-variance design was used to quantify variation in total content of elements between glaciated and unglaciated terrains, for four increasingly smaller geographic scales, and to quantify variation due to sample preparation and analysis. From this statistical study, reliable maps on a regional basis (>100 km) were prepared for C, K, and Rb in A and C soil horizons; for N a, Si, Th, D, and Zn in A-horizon soil; and for As, Ca, Ge, and Mg in C-horizon soil. The distribution of variance components for the remaining 29 elements did not permit the construction of reliable maps. Therefore, a baseline value for each of these elements is given as a measure of the total element concentration in the soils of the Northern Great Plains coal region. The baseline is expressed as the 95-percent range in concentration to be expected in samples of natural soils. PART B: A reconnaissance study of total concentrations of 38 elements in samples of soils (0-40 cm deep, composite) from the Bighorn and Wind River Basins of Montana and Wyoming indicates that the geographic variation for most elements occurs locally (5 km or less). However, in the Bighorn Basin, Zn exhibits significant regional variation (between geologic units); and in the Wind River Basin, AI, Cr, K, Mn, Mo, Ni, U, and V exhibit similar variation. For the remaining elements, the lack of regional variation suggests that a single summary statistic can be used to estimate a baseline value that reflects the range in concentration to be expected in samples of soils in each basin. The concentrations of most of these elements in both basins are not much different from those measured independently in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming or in the Western United States. In addition, data from an analysis of variance provide an estimate of the number of random samples within an area of specified size (10 km square, approximately a township) that are needed to prepare a reliable map of total element concentration in soils for each of the elements in each of the basins.

Montana, North Dakota, Saskatchewan, South Dakota,↗

USGS2003

Density and magnetic susceptibility values for rocks in the Talkeetna Mountains and adjacent region, south-central Alaska

This report presents a compilation and statistical analysis of 306 density and 706 magnetic susceptibility measurements of rocks from south-central Alaska that were collected by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (ADGGS) scientists between the summers of 1999 and 2002. This work is a product of the USGS Talkeetna Mountains Transect Project and was supported by USGS projects in the Talkeetna Mountains and Iron Creek region, and by Bureau of Land Management (BLM) projects in the Delta River Mining District that aim to characterize the subsurface structures of the region. These data were collected to constrain potential field models (i.e., gravity and magnetic) that are combined with other geophysical methods to identify and model major faults, terrane boundaries, and potential mineral resources of the study area. Because gravity and magnetic field anomalies reflect variations in the density and magnetic susceptibility of the underlying lithology, these rock properties are essential components of potential field modeling. In general, the average grain density of rocks in the study region increases from sedimentary, felsic, and intermediate igneous rocks, to mafic igneous and metamorphic rocks. Magnetic susceptibility measurements performed on rock outcrops and hand samples from the study area also reveal lower magnetic susceptibilities for sedimentary and felsic intrusive rocks, moderate susceptibility values for metamorphic, felsic extrusive, and intermediate igneous rocks, and higher susceptibility values for mafic igneous rocks. The density and magnetic properties of rocks in the study area are generally consistent with general trends expected for certain rock types.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Probabilistic methodology for the assessment of original and recoverable coal resources, illustrated with an application to a coal bed in the Fort Union Formation, Wyoming

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been using its Circular 891 for evaluating uncertainty in coal resource assessments for more than 35 years. Calculated cell tonnages are assigned to four qualitative reliability classes depending exclusively on distance to the nearest drill hole. The main appeal of this methodology, simplicity, is also its main drawback. Reliability may depend so marginally on distance to the nearest drill hole that, over time, it has become evident that Circular 891 is inadequate for modeling reliability and is limited by other shortcomings. The present publication describes the use of geostatistics as an approach allowing a more satisfactory performance than that which is achieved following Circular 891. Geostatistics takes advantage of partly random and partly organized fluctuations in attributes such as coal thickness, coal density, and elevation of the top of a coal bed, borrowing concepts and tools that have been standard features in statistics and risk analysis for decades. Considering that readers interested in this study may not have the background to go directly into the details of the methodology, we start by explaining geostatistical concepts and modeling techniques. The remainder of the publication is devoted to formulating the assessment methodology, applying it to data from the Fillmore Ranch coal bed in the Fort Union Formation in Wyoming, and explaining the computer software applied for performing calculations and displays. The assessment methodology has been designed to report three different forms of resources: coal in place, coal mineable by surface mining methods, and coal mineable by underground mining methods. These three types of resources are reported graphically by displaying both the magnitude and the reliability of total coal resources and resources at the cell scale. In the case of the Fillmore Ranch coal bed example, there is a 90-percent probability that the resources in place are 9.687 ± 0.383 billion short tons (bst), while the coal available for underground mining is 2.279 ± 0.160 bst, and that available for surface mining is only 0.240 ± 0.025 bst because of the steep dip to the west away from the outcrop. These magnitudes are derived from numerical probability distributions not following any specific form.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Water-quality trends for selected sites in the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds, Montana, based on data collected during water years 1997-2013

In the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds in southwestern Montana, there was intensive mining during a 40-year period after the discovery of gold in the early 1860s. Potential effects from the historic mining activities include acid-mine drainage and elevated concentrations of potentially toxic trace elements from mining remnants such as waste rock and tailing piles. In support of remediation efforts, water-quality monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey began in 1997 in the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds and has continued to present (2014). The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Forest Service, investigated temporal trends in water quality at 13 sites, including 2 adit (or mine entrance) sites and 11 stream sites. The primary purpose of this report is to present results of trend analysis of specific conductance, selected trace-elements (cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and arsenic), and suspended sediment for the 13 sites. Trend results for most stream sites in the Boulder River watershed for water years 2000–13 (water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends) indicate decreasing trends in flow-adjusted specific conductance, in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) for most filtered and unfiltered-recoverable trace elements, and in suspended sediment. Overall, magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of metallic contaminants are largest for Bullion Mine tributary at mouth (site 3), Jack Creek at mouth (site 4), and Cataract Creek at Basin (site 8). For sites 3, 4, and 8, magnitudes of decreasing trends generally ranged from about -5 to -10 percent per year. Notably, the watersheds upstream from sites 3, 4, and 8 have been targeted by substantial remediation activities. Consideration of trend patterns among all stream sites in the Boulder River watershed provides strong evidence that remediation activities are the primary cause of decreasing trends in metallic contaminants. Trend results for sites in the Tenmile Creek watershed generally are more variable and difficult to interpret than for sites in the Boulder River watershed. Trend results for Tenmile Creek above City Diversion (site 11) and Minnehaha Creek near Rimini (site 12) for water years 2000–13 indicate decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium, copper, and zinc. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of copper generally are moderate and statistically significant for sites 11 and 12. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium and zinc for site 11 are minor to small and not statistically significant; however, the magnitudes for site 12 are moderate and statistically significant. In general, patterns in FACs for Tenmile Creek near Rimini (site 13) are not well represented by fitted trends within the short data collection period, which might indicate that the trend-analysis structure of the study is not appropriate for describing trends in FACs for site 13. The large decreasing trend in FACs of suspended sediment is the strongest indication of change in water quality during the short period of record for site 13; however, this trend is not statistically significant.

Montana↗