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USGS science in Menlo Park -- a science strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park Science Center, 2005-2015

In the spring of 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Menlo Park Center Council commissioned an interdisciplinary working group to develop a forward-looking science strategy for the USGS Menlo Park Science Center in California (hereafter also referred to as "the Center"). The Center has been the flagship research center for the USGS in the western United States for more than 50 years, and the Council recognizes that science priorities must be the primary consideration guiding critical decisions made about the future evolution of the Center. In developing this strategy, the working group consulted widely within the USGS and with external clients and collaborators, so that most stakeholders had an opportunity to influence the science goals and operational objectives. The Science Goals are to: Natural Hazards: Conduct natural-hazard research and assessments critical to effective mitigation planning, short-term forecasting, and event response. Ecosystem Change: Develop a predictive understanding of ecosystem change that advances ecosystem restoration and adaptive management. Natural Resources: Advance the understanding of natural resources in a geologic, hydrologic, economic, environmental, and global context. Modeling Earth System Processes: Increase and improve capabilities for quantitative simulation, prediction, and assessment of Earth system processes. The strategy presents seven key Operational Objectives with specific actions to achieve the scientific goals. These Operational Objectives are to: Provide a hub for technology, laboratories, and library services to support science in the Western Region. Increase advanced computing capabilities and promote sharing of these resources. Enhance the intellectual diversity, vibrancy, and capacity of the work force through improved recruitment and retention. Strengthen client and collaborative relationships in the community at an institutional level. Expand monitoring capability by increasing density, sensitivity, and efficiency and reducing costs of instruments and networks. Encourage a breadth of scientific capabilities in Menlo Park to foster interdisciplinary science. Communicate USGS science to a diverse audience.

Circular

Hydrologic data and a proposed water-quality monitoring network for the Kobuk River basin, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and Kobuk Valley National Park, Alaska

Located in northwestern Alaska, the Kobuk River drains a watershed of approximately 12,300 square miles. Two national parks are located in the basin: the entire Kobuk Valley National Park and and a portion of Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve. Reconnaissance-type water-quality data collected on the Kobuk River and some of its tributaries indicate that the water is of a calcium to calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate type. To design a representative water-quality monitoring network, a geographical information system (GIS) of the Kobuk River Basin was created. The GIS was used with a statistical technique, cluster analysis, to stratify the Kobuk River Basin into different regions. Potential water-quality monitoring sites were then selected from these regions.

Alaska

Field guide to the geology of the Denali National Park Road and the Parks Highway from Cantwell to Healy

The Denali National Park & Preserve area provides one of the few opportunities in Alaska for road-side access to good rock outcrops. The rocks and surficial deposits exposed in the Denali area span from the Paleozoic to the Quaternary. It is a structurally complex area that contains a history of rifting, accretion, and orogeny. There is evidence of multiple metamorphic events in the Mesozoic, mountain building in the Tertiary, and faulting in the present day. The region is the site of active faulting along one of the largest intra-continental fault systems, the Denali Fault system, which was the locus of a 7.9 M earthquake in 2002. This guidebook describes the key outcrops viewable along the Denali Park Road from the entrance to the Eielson Visitor Center, and along the Parks Highway from Healy to Cantwell.

Alaska

Synthesis of thirty years of surface water quality and aquatic biota data in Shenandoah National Park: Collaboration between the US Geological Survey and the National Park Service

The eastern United States has been the recipient of acidic atmospheric deposition (hereinafter, “acid rain”) for many decades. Deleterious effects of acid rain on natural resources have been well documented for surface water (e.g., Likens et al. 1996; Stoddard et al. 2001), soils (Bailey et al. 2005), forest health (Long et al. 2009), and habitat suitability for stream biota (Baker et al. 1993). Shenandoah National Park (SNP) is located in northern and central Virginia and consists of a long, narrow strip of land straddling the Blue Ridge Mountains (Figure 1). The park’s elevated topography and location downwind of the Ohio River valley, where many acidic emissions to the atmosphere are generated (NSTC 2005), have made it a target for acid rain. Characterizing the link between air quality and water quality as related to acid rain, contaminants, soil conditions, and forest health is a high priority for research and monitoring in SNP. The US Geological Survey (USGS) and SNP have had a long history of collaboration on documenting acid rain effects on the park’s natural resources, starting in 1985 and continuing to the present (Lynch and Dise 1985; Rice et al. 2001, 2004, 2005, 2007; Deviney et al. 2006, 2012; Jastram et al. 2013).

Virginia

Protocol for monitoring forest-nesting birds in National Park Service parks

These documents detail the protocol for monitoring forest-nesting birds in National Park Service parks in the National Capital Region Network (NCRN). In the first year of sampling, counts of birds should be made at 384 points on the NCRN spatially randomized grid, developed to sample terrestrial resources. Sampling should begin on or about May 20 and continue into early July; on each day the sampling period begins at sunrise and ends five hours later. Each point should be counted twice, once in the first half of the field season and once in the second half, with visits made by different observers, balancing the within-season coverage of points and their spatial coverage by observers, and allowing observer differences to be tested. Three observers, skilled in identifying birds of the region by sight and sound and with previous experience in conducting timed counts of birds, will be needed for this effort. Observers should be randomly assigned to ‘routes’ consisting of eight points, in close proximity and, ideally, in similar habitat, that can be covered in one morning. Counts are 10 minutes in length, subdivided into four 2.5-min intervals. Within each time interval, new birds (i.e., those not already detected) are recorded as within or beyond 50 m of the point, based on where first detected. Binomial distance methods are used to calculate annual estimates of density for species. The data are also amenable to estimation of abundance and detection probability via the removal method. Generalized linear models can be used to assess between-year changes in density estimates or unadjusted count data. This level of sampling is expected to be sufficient to detect a 50% decline in 10 years for approximately 50 bird species, including 14 of 19 species that are priorities for conservation efforts, if analyses are based on unadjusted count data, and for 30 species (6 priority species) if analyses are based on density estimates. The estimates of required sample sizes are based on the mean number of individuals detected per 10 minutes in available data from surveys in three NCRN parks. Once network-wide data from the first year of sampling are available, this and other aspects of the protocol should be re-assessed, and changes made as desired or necessary before the start of the second field season. Thereafter, changes should not be made to the field methods, and sampling should be conducted annually for at least ten years. NCRN staff should keep apprised of new analytical methods developed for analysis of point-count data.

Report

Evaluating mountain goat population structure in Glacier National Park and Waterton Lakes National Park

Mountain goats are an iconic, climate-sensitive species across their North American alpine range. Among its nearly complete complement of native wildlife, no single species embodies Glacier National Park (GNP) more than the mountain goat. They play an important role as an alpine food source for many of the park’s carnivores including wolverines, mountain lions, and grizzly bears. Mountain goats face many increasing threats, particularly at the southern extent of their range. These include changes in precipitation and temperature, shifts in forage and fire frequency and intensity, and rapidly increasing visitation and recreation. Although the high latitude and elevations of GNP offer refugia, the mountain goat population likely declined between 2008 and 2019 and may also have a smaller distribution. In Montana, many other native mountain goat populations are also declining or have disappeared entirely. Using a combination of staff and citizen scientists, we collected fecal pellets across GNP in Montana, USA, and adjoining Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP) in Alberta, Canada, between 2019 and 2023. We used genotypes of 6 to 19 loci microsatellites to identify individuals and assess isolation by distance, genetic structure, and genetic diversity. We found no evidence of genetic structure and only limited isolation by distance. This suggests that mountain goats in GNP and WLNP can be considered a single population, so samples can be combined across the area to estimate a single population size. Genetic diversity was similar to recent mountain goat studies conducted in other regions; allelic richness was 3.54 and inbreeding coefficients ( F IS ) ranged from 0.01–0.19, with values >0.11 only in the Livingston Range in the northwest of the study area. The high F IS in the Livingston Range suggests several closely related groups with little interchange, and perhaps a recent decrease in gene flow, both of which are consistent with a recent population decline in that area. We detected a high number of closely related individuals throughout our study area, consistent with the high adult survival, low reproductive success life history of goats, but also suggesting that we sampled much of the overall population.

Alberta, Montana

Increasing rock-avalanche size and mobility in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska detected from 1984 to 2016 Landsat imagery

In the USA, climate change is expected to have an adverse impact on slope stability in Alaska. However, to date, there has been limited work done in Alaska to assess if changes in slope stability are occurring. To address this issue, we used 30-m Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2016 to establish an inventory of 24 rock avalanches in a 5000-km 2 area of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in southeast Alaska. A search of available earthquake catalogs revealed that none of the avalanches were triggered by earthquakes. Analyses of rock-avalanche magnitude, mobility, and frequency reveal a cluster of large (areas ranging from 5.5 to 22.2 km 2 ), highly mobile (height/length < 0.3) rock avalanches that occurred from June 2012 through June 2016 (near the end of the 33-year period of record). These rock avalanches began about 2 years after the long-term trend in mean annual maximum air temperature may have exceeded 0 °C. Possibly more important, most of these rock avalanches occurred during a multiple-year period of record-breaking warm winter and spring air temperatures. These observations suggested to us that rock avalanches in the study area may be becoming larger because of rock-permafrost degradation. However, other factors, such as accumulating elastic strain, glacial thinning, and increased precipitation, may also play an important role in preconditioning slopes for failure during periods of warm temperatures.

Alaska

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probabililty, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from 1) field survey site data only, 2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and 3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 - 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative for areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders; 971-3017 ha for western toads; 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs; 4940-19 690 hectares for Columbia spotted frogs.

Yellowstone National Park

Monitoring-well installation, slug testing, and groundwater quality for selected sites in South Park, Park County, Colorado, 2013

During May&ndash;June, 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Park County, Colorado, drilled and installed four groundwater monitoring wells in areas identified as needing new wells to provide adequate spatial coverage for monitoring water quality in the South Park basin. Lithologic logs and well-construction reports were prepared for each well, and wells were developed after drilling to remove mud and foreign material to provide for good hydraulic connection between the well and aquifer. Slug tests were performed to estimate hydraulic-conductivity values for aquifer materials in the screened interval of each well, and groundwater samples were collected from each well for analysis of major inorganic constituents, trace metals, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, volatile organic compounds, ethane, methane, and radon. Documentation of lithologic logs, well construction, well development, slug testing, and groundwater sampling are presented in this report.

Colorado

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park elk monitoring program annual report 2011

Fiscal year 2011 was the first year of implementing an approved elk monitoring protocol in Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) National Parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) (Griffin et al. 2012). However, it was the fourth and second year of gathering data according to protocol in MORA and OLYM respectively; data gathered during the protocol development phase followed procedures that are laid out in the protocol. Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys; however the protocol estimates the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA is estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed using survey data from 2008-2010 (Griffin et al. 2012). That model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio-collars on elk. Consequently the majority of the effort in OLYM in the past 4 years has been focused on capturing and radio-collaring elk and conducting sightability trials needed to develop a double-observer sightability model in OLYM. In this annual report we provide estimates of abundance and composition for MORA elk, raw counts of elk made in OLYM, and describe sightability trials conducted in OLYM. At MORA the North trend count area was surveyed twice and the South once (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd). We counted 373 and 267 elk during two replicate surveys of the North Rainier herd, and 535 elk in the South Rainier herd. Using the model, we estimated that 413 and 320 elk were in the North and 652 elk were in the South trend count areas during the time of the respective surveys. At OLYM, the Core and Northwest trend count areas were completely surveyed, as were portions of the Quinault. In addition, we surveyed 10 survey units specifically to get resight data. Two-hundred and forty eight elk were counted in the Core, 19 in the Northwest, and 169 in the Quinault. We conducted double-observer sightability trials associated with 14 collared elk groups for use in developing the double-observer sightability model for OLYM.

Washington

Sensitivity of alpine and subalpine lakes to acidification from atmospheric deposition in Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

The sensitivity of 400 lakes in Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to acidification from atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur was estimated based on statistical relations between acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics to aid in the design of a long-term monitoring plan for Outstanding Natural Resource Waters. Acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations that were measured at 52 lakes in Grand Teton and 23 lakes in Yellowstone during synoptic surveys were used to calibrate the statistical models. Three acid-neutralizing capacity concentration bins (bins) were selected that are within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria of sensitive to acidification; less than 50 microequivalents per liter (?eq/L) (0-50), less than 100 ?eq/L (0-100), and less than 200 ?eq/L (0-200). The development of discrete bins enables resource managers to have the ability to change criteria based on the focus of their study. Basin-characteristic information was derived from Geographic Information System data sets. The explanatory variables that were considered included bedrock type, basin slope, basin aspect, basin elevation, lake area, basin area, inorganic nitrogen deposition, sulfate deposition, hydrogen ion deposition, basin precipitation, soil type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed and applied to lake basins greater than 1 hectare in Grand Teton (n = 106) and Yellowstone (n = 294). A higher percentage of lakes in Grand Teton than in Yellowstone were predicted to be sensitive to atmospheric deposition in all three bins. For Grand Teton, 7 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-50 bin, 36 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-100 bin, and 59 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-200 bin. The elevation of the lake outlet and the area of the basin with northeast aspects were determined to be statistically significant and were used as the explanatory variables in the multivariate logistic regression model for the 0-100 bin. For Yellowstone, results indicated that 13 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-100 bin, and 27 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-200 bin. Only the elevation of the lake outlet was determined to be statistically significant and was used as the explanatory variable for the 0-100 bin. The lakes that exceeded 60-percent probability of having an acid-neutralizing capacity concentration in the 0-100 bin, and therefore had the greatest sensitivity to acidification from atmospheric deposition, are located at elevations greater than 2,790 meters in Grand Teton, and greater than 2,590 meters in Yellowstone.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrology of Park County, Wyoming, exclusive of Yellowstone National Park

The climate of Park County, Wyoming, ranges from desert to alpine tundra. Average annual precipitation ranges from 6 to 40 inches. Ground water is present throughout most of the county, but supplies adequate for stock or domestic use are not readily available in areas of greatest need. The chemical quality of most of the water sampled was of suitable quality for livestock, but most of the water was not suitable for drinking, and the water from bedrock aquifers generally was not suitable for irrigation. Unconsolidated deposits are a principal source of ground water in the county. However, ground water is found in deposits topographically higher than stream level only where surface water has been applied for irrigation; those unconsolidated deposits beneath areas that are not irrigated, such as Polecat Bench, are dry. The conversion of irrigated land to urban development poses problems in some areas because yields of water-supply wells will be adversely affected by reduced recharge. The trend toward urban development also increases the risk of contamination of the ground water by septic tanks, petroleum products, and toxic and hazardous wastes. Perennial streams originate in the mountains and in areas where drainage from irrigated land is adequate to sustain flow. The average annual runoff from streams originating in the mountains is as large as 598 acre-feet per square mile, and the average annual runoff from streams originating in badlands and plains is as low as 14.8 acre-feet per square mile.

Water-Resources Investigations Report