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Groundwater quality in Geauga County, Ohio: status, including detection frequency of methane in water wells, 2009, and changes during 1978-2009

Domestic wells that are not safeguarded by regular water-quality testing provide drinking water for 79 percent of the residents of Geauga County, in northeastern Ohio. Since 1978, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has worked cooperatively with the Board of Commissioners and Geauga County Planning Commission to monitor the quality of groundwater in four commonly used aquifers in county—the glacial deposits, the Pottsville Formation, the Cuyahoga Group, and the Berea Sandstone. A 33-percent growth in population from 1980 to 2009 increased the potential for humans to influence groundwater resources by withdrawing more groundwater, disposing of more human waste near the land surface, treating an expanded network of township roads with deicing salt, and likely using more solvents, pesticides, and other chemicals on the land surface than were used in preceding decades. To describe the status of groundwater quality in 2009 and its suitability for drinking, USGS personnel collected samples of water prior to treatment from 16 wells (mostly domestic) during June 9–19. The samples were analyzed for 92 properties and constituents, 41 of which had human-health benchmarks to which analytical results could be compared to evaluate suitability for drinking. Four of these benchmarks were exceeded at the following frequencies: arsenic (2 of 16 wells, 12.5 percent), total coliform bacteria (2 of 16 wells, 12.5 percent), fecal coliform bacteria (1 of 14 wells, 7 percent), and sodium (6 of 16 wells, 38 percent). No domestic wells sampled in 2009 exceeded the health-based benchmark of 300 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for manganese, although 5 of 65 wells (8 percent) sampled since 1978 have. Analyses from domestic wells were augmented with water-quality data from seven public-supply well fields that were obtained from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. These public-supply data were typically collected between 2000 and 2010 and represent water samples that were collected prior to treatment or that were treated by a method that does not effectively remove the constituents of interest. Similar to the domestic-well data, these data indicated that some samples from public-supply wells have also exceeded health-based benchmarks for arsenic and sodium, along with occasional exceedances of health-based benchmarks for cadmium and lead. Concentrations of nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in ground-water samples from domestic and (or) public-supply wells were either considerably less than the human-health benchmarks for these constituents or were not detected. Water-quality data collected in 2009 were also compared to aesthetically based benchmarks developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, called Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (SMCLs). Iron and manganese most frequently exceeded SMCLs (in samples from 10 of 16 domestic wells and in untreated water from 3 of 4 public-supply well fields). To evaluate the frequency of methane detection in water wells in the county, the USGS sampled 16 wells across the county and screened the samples for combustible gas within the headspace (the air above the water in a closed container). Water from three (19 percent) of the wells contained detectable combustible gas (0.10 to 0.40 percent by volume). All three detections were from wells tapping the Cuyahoga Group or the Berea Sandstone, and all detections were less than the lower explosive limit of 5 percent by volume—the concentration at which methane in air can be flammable if an ignition source is present. Analyses of dissolved gas composition in water from these three wells showed methane concentrations ranging from 0.007 to 1.8 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The primary effect of human activities on groundwater quality found during this study is the input of salinity, or chloride, near land surface. On the basis of ratios of chloride to bromide, the main sources of chloride are road salt and septic leachate rather than oil-field brines (either spilled at land surface or sprayed on roads for dust control). The correlation of chloride concentration to distance of well from road for 31 wells in the county sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1999 suggests that road salt is the dominant source of chloride. The majority of constituents exceeding health-based and aesthetically based benchmarks in groundwater were those that are naturally present in aquifer rocks and sediments rather than constituents introduced by human activities. Concentrations of such natural contaminants are controlled by geochemical processes in the subsurface, particularly by oxidation-reduction (redox) reactions. The categorization of redox conditions based on the water quality of 116 samples collected from 65 wells in Geauga County during 1978 through 2009 indicates that most groundwater samples were strongly reducing (60 percent) or oxic (18 percent). Oxic waters were found only in the Pottsville Formation and Berea Sandstone and were generally associated with nitrate at concentrations of 0.38 to 6.0 mg/L. Strongly reducing waters occurred in all four commonly used aquifers and were associated with the following naturally occurring contaminants: (1) arsenic and manganese at concentrations exceeding the health-based benchmarks (10 µg/L and 300 µg/L, respectively) in some samples, (2) iron and manganese at concentrations exceeding the aesthetically based standards (300 µg/L and 50 µg/L, respectively) in most samples, and (3) total sulfides (consisting of hydrogen sulfide gas with its characteristic rotten-egg odor and [or] iron sulfide minerals that appear as finely disseminated particulates in water). Because of the association of redox conditions with specific contaminants, attempts were made to further document spatially where oxic and strongly reducing conditions occur so that contaminant occurrence can be better anticipated by planners and well owners. Within the Pottsville Formation, wells tapping strongly reducing groundwater tended to have a greater thickness of overlying low-permeability (recharge-inhibiting) material such as clay and shale than other wells tapping oxic or nitrate-reducing groundwater. In the Berea Sandstone, oxic conditions were found at well locations where either depth to groundwater was shallow (less than 45 feet [ft] below land surface) or the measured water level was within the open interval (uncased portion) of the well, whereas strongly reducing groundwater was found at well locations where depths to water were greater than 60 ft below land surface and measured water levels were 15 ft or more above the open interval of the well. To evaluate whether constituent concentrations consistently increased or decreased over time, the strength of the association between sampling year (time) and constituent concentration was statistically evaluated for 116 water-quality samples collected by the USGS in 1978, 1980, 1986, 1999, and 2009 from a total of 65 wells across the county (generally domestic wells or wells serving small businesses or churches). Results indicate that many of the constituents that have been analyzed for decades exhibited no consistent temporal trends at a statistically significant level (p-value less than 0.05); fluctuations in concentrations of these constituents represent natural variation in groundwater quality. Dissolved oxygen, calcium, and sulfate concentrations and chloride:bromide ratios increased over time in one or more aquifers, while pH and concentrations of bromide and dissolved organic carbon decreased over time. Detections of total coliform bacteria and nitrate did not become more frequent from 1986 to 2009, even though potential sources of these constituents, such as number of septic systems (linked to population) and percent developed land in the county, increased during this period.

Geauga County

Drought-related impacts on municipal and major self-supplied industrial water withdrawals in Tennessee -- Part A

A state-wide water use survey was conducted of all public water suppliers and large, self-supplied industries in Tennessee. This report contains a summation of the data received from 463 public-water suppliers and 129 self-supplied water users. Analysis of the study results and findings indicate that many communities in Tennessee do experience occasional water supply, quantity-related shortages. A total of 142 problems were reported by 107 of the public water suppliers. However, only 22 of the problems were a result of inadequate source supply. Although only three industries reported a water shortage problem , 20 were identified as having a potential water-supply source problem. West Tennessee was the only section of the state where all communities and industries surveyed reported an adequate water supply. The effects of a drought on the environment--specifically, wetlands, fish wildlife, and recreational-users--are briefly described, although there was no evidence that water withdrawn by communities or industry would directly affect the environment. This study appears to verify the conclusions that an extended drought, although directly affecting the supply to some communities and industries, may actually affect water quality and wastewater treatment more accurately by decreasing the ability of the source to assimilate wastes. (USGS)

Tennessee

Drought-related impacts on municipal and major self-supplied industrial water withdrawals in Tennessee -- Part B

A state-wide water use survey was conducted of all public water suppliers and large, self-supplied industries in Tennessee. This report contains a summation of the data received from 463 public-water suppliers and 129 self-supplied water users. Analysis of the study results and findings indicate that many communities in Tennessee do experience occasional water supply, quantity-related shortages. A total of 142 problems were reported by 107 of the public water suppliers. However, only 22 of the problems were a result of inadequate source supply. Although only three industries reported a water shortage problem , 20 were identified as having a potential water-supply source problem. West Tennessee was the only section of the state where all communities and industries surveyed reported an adequate water supply. The effects of a drought on the environment--specifically, wetlands, fish wildlife, and recreational-users--are briefly described, although there was no evidence that water withdrawn by communities or industry would directly affect the environment. This study appears to verify the conclusions that an extended drought, although directly affecting the supply to some communities and industries, may actually affect water quality and wastewater treatment more accurately by decreasing the ability of the source to assimilate wastes. (USGS)

Tennessee

Chemical and physical quality of selected public water supplies in Florida, August-September 1976

Results of a 1976 water-quality reconnaissance made by the U.S. Geological Survey indicated that, with few exceptions, all public water supplies in Florida are of high quality and meet the standards set forth in the National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulations. Occasionally the concentrations of fluoride, turbidity, cadmium, chromium, and lead approximated, equaled, or exceeded maximum contaminant levels with exceedences occurring very infrequently. The pesticides 2,4-D and silvex, were detected in some public supplies throughout the State mainly in surface water. Although pesticides were not detected in concentrations approaching the maximum levels established in the regulations, their presence does signal that the activities of man are beginning to affect some water resources. (Woodard-USGS)

Florida

Creep of water ices at planetary conditions: A compilation

Many constitutive laws for the flow of ice have been published since the advent of the Voyager explorations of the outer solar system. Conflicting data have occasionally come from different laboratories, and refinement of experimental techniques has led to the publication of laws that supersede earlier ones. In addition, there are unpublished data from ongoing research that also amend the constitutive laws. Here we compile the most current laboratory-derived flow laws for water ice phases I, II, III, V, and VI, and ice I mixtures with hard particulates. The rheology of interest is mainly that of steady state, and the conditions reviewed are the pressures and temperatures applicable to the surfaces and interiors of icy moons of the outer solar system. Advances in grain-size-dependent creep in ices I and II as well as in phase transformations and metastability under differential stress are also included in this compilation. At laboratory strain rates the several ice polymorphs are rheologically distinct in terms of their stress, temperature, and pressure dependencies but, with the exception of ice III, have fairly similar strengths. Hard particulates strengthen ice I significantly only at high particulate volume fractions. Ice III has the potential for significantly affecting mantle dynamics because it is much weaker than the other polymorphs and its region of stability, which may extend metastably well into what is nominally the ice II field, is located near likely geotherms of large icy moons.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

Magnitude and frequency of summer floods in western New Mexico and eastern Arizona

Numerous small reservoirs and occasional water-spreading structures are being built on the ephemeral streams draining the public and Indian lands of the Southwest as part of the Soil and Moisture Conservation Program of the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs. Economic design of these structures requires some knowledge of the flood rates and volumes. Information concerning flood frequencies on areas less than 100 square miles is deficient throughout the country, particularly on intermittent streams of the Southwest. Design engineers require a knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of flood volumes for the planning of adequate reservoir capacities and a knowledge of frequency and magnitude of flood peaks for spillway design. Hence, this study deals with both flood volumes and peaks, the same statistical methods being used to develop frequency curves for each.

Arizona, New Mexico

Chemical, physical, and radiological quality of selected public water supplies in Florida, November 1977-February 1978

Virtually all treated public water supplies sampled in Florida meet the National Interim Primary and Proposed Secondary Drinking Water Regulations. These findings are based on a water-quality reconnaissance of 129 treated public supplies throughout the State during the period November 1977 through February 1978. While primary drinking water regulation exceedences were infrequent, lead, selenium, and gross alpha radioactivity in a very few water supplies were above established maximum contaminant levels. Additionally, the secondary drinking water regulation parameters--dissolved solids , chloride, sulfate, iron, color, and pH--were occasionally detected in excess of the proposed Federal regulations. The secondary regulations, however, pertain mainly to the aesthetic quality of drinking water and not directly to public health aspects. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington

Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?

Yellowstone, one of the world’s largest active volcanic systems, has produced several giant volcanic eruptions in the past few million years, as well as many smaller eruptions and steam explosions. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. In the next few hundred years, hazards will most probably be limited to ongoing geyser and hot-spring activity, occasional steam explosions, and moderate to large earthquakes. To better understand Yellowstone’s volcano and earthquake hazards and to help protect the public, the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Utah, and Yellowstone National Park formed the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, which continuously monitors activity in the region.

Wyoming

Water-quality assessment of the Connecticut, Housatonic, and Thames River Basins study unit: Analysis of available data on nutrients, suspended sediments, and pesticides, 1972-92

This retrospective report examines available nutrient, suspended sediment, and pesticide data in surface and ground water in the Connecticut, Housatonic and Thames Rivers Study Unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic factors affecting water quality in the study unit. Waterquality data were acquired from various sources, primarily, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The report examines data for water years 1972-92, focusing on 1980-92, although it also includes additional data from as early as 1905. The study unit lies within the New England Physiographic Province and altitudes range from sea level in coastal Connecticut to 6,288 feet above sea level at Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Two major aquifer types underlie the study unit unconsolidated glacial deposits and fractured bedrock. The climate generally is temperate and humid, with four distinct seasons. Average annual precipitation ranges from 34 to 65 inches. The study unit has a population of about 4.5 million, which is most highly concentrated in southwestern Connecticut and along the south-central region of the Connecticut River Valley. Surface-water-quality data were screened to provide information about sites with adequate numbers of analyses (50) over sufficiently long periods (1980-90) to enable valid statistical analyses. In order to compare effects of different types of land use on surface-water quality, examination of data required application of several statistical and graphical techniques, including mapping, histograms, boxplots, concentration-discharge plots, trend analysis, and load estimation. Spatial and temporal analysis of surface-water-quality data indicated that, with a single exception, only stations in the Connecticut water-quality network had sufficient data collected over adequately long time periods to use in detailed analyses. Ground-water nutrient and pesticide data were compiled from several Federal and State agencies, primarily the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Connecticut Department of Health Services. Nutrient data were available for several thousand wells; nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen was the most commonly reported constituent. Most wells with nutrient data are in Massachusetts and Connecticut. Relative to nutrient data in ground and surface water, pesticide data are less common. Pesticide data were available for slightly more than 200 surface-water sites and less than 500 wells; about 95 percent of the wells are completed in stratified-drift or till aquifers. Data for 81 pesticide compounds were available in various data bases. 2,4-D and silvex were the most commonly detected herbicides in surface water and dieldrin and diazinon were the most commonly detected insecticides. Most surface-water pesticide samples and detections are from bed sediment, but much of the data are not recent. Ethylene dibromide (EDB), a soil fumigant used in tobacco farming was detected in 268 wells in a 50 square-mile area of north-central Connecticut; EDB contamination also was detected in wells in Massachusetts. Atrazine, an herbicide commonly used in corn farming, commonly was detected in wells installed in tilled agricultural fields. Corn herbicides were commonly detected in the northern part of the study unit, although the sampling has been less frequent than in the southern part of the study unit. Pesticides were seldom detected in public-supply wells in Connecticut. Urban sites with relatively high population densities and high concentrations of dischargers were characterized by having the highest nutrient concentrations and loads when adjusted for differences in drainage area or population. Particularly, the Pequabuck, Naugatuck, and Quinnipiac River Basins were characterized by high nutrient concentrations median total nitrogen concentrations ranged from 3.3 to 4.2 mg/L (milligrams per liter) and median total phosphorus concentrations ranged from 0.42 to 0.8 mg/L. In contrast, the predominantly forested and low density residential land-use sites, such as Saugatuck and Salmon River Basins, were characterized by low nutrient concentrations median total nitrogen ranged from 0.50 to 0.60 mg/L and median total phosphorus concentrations ranged from 0.01 to 0.02 mg/L. Estimated total nitrogen loadings in median discharge years ranged from 940 kilograms per square mile at the Salmon River near East Hampton, Conn., to 5,800 kilograms per square mile at the Naugatuck River at Beacon Falls, Conn. Water quality, in terms of nutrient concentrations and areally adjusted loadings, for sites with large drainage basins integrating a wide variety of land-use categories fell between the extremes of the urban and forested sites total nitrogen was 1,400 kilograms per square mile per year at the Connecticut River at Thompsonville, Conn. Nitrate concentrations in ground water occasionally exceeded the safe drinking-water standard of 10 mg/L as nitrogen. The greatest number of detections exceeding the standard, however, were not in public-water supplies but in shallow observation wells in agricultural settings (the most frequently sampled type of well). None of the public-supply wells in Massachusetts exceeded the standard. Although nitrate concentrations for Vermont and New Hampshire generally were low, few data were available and those were seldom reported on the basis of drainage basin, making analysis difficult. Trend analysis indicated that flow-adjusted concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus generally decreased during the period of analysis, however, total nitrogen did not change substantially. Decreases in ammonia concentrations with time were usually accompanied by increases in nitrate, suggesting improvements in sewage treatment. The lack of adequate data from more or less exclusively agricultural areas points to the need for further study of the effects of fanning on surface-water quality in the study unit. Furthermore, additional information is needed on the rates, transformations, and movements of nutrients and other materials through and between the aquatic and terrestrial components of the study unit.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Quebec,

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in Cedar Valley, Iron County, Utah

Cedar Valley, located in the eastern part of Iron County in southwestern Utah, is experiencing rapid population growth. Cedar Valley traditionally has supported agriculture, but the growing population needs a larger share of the available water resources. Water withdrawn from the unconsolidated basin fill is the primary source for public supply and is a major source of water for irrigation. Water managers are concerned about increasing demands on the water supply and need hydrologic information to manage this limited water resource and minimize flow of water unsuitable for domestic use toward present and future public-supply sources. Surface water in the study area is derived primarily from snowmelt at higher altitudes east of the study area or from occasional large thunderstorms during the summer. Coal Creek, a perennial stream with an average annual discharge of 24,200 acre-feet per year, is the largest stream in Cedar Valley. Typically, all of the water in Coal Creek is diverted for irrigation during the summer months. All surface water is consumed within the basin by irrigated crops, evapotranspiration, or recharge to the ground-water system. Ground water in Cedar Valley generally moves from primary recharge areas along the eastern margin of the basin where Coal Creek enters, to areas of discharge or subsurface outflow. Recharge to the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer is by seepage of unconsumed irrigation water, streams, direct precipitation on the unconsolidated basin fill, and subsurface inflow from consolidated rock and Parowan Valley and is estimated to be about 42,000 acre-feet per year. Stable-isotope data indicate that recharge is primarily from winter precipitation. The chloride mass-balance method indicates that recharge may be less than 42,000 acre-feet per year, but is considered a rough approximation because of limited chloride concentration data for precipitation and Coal Creek. Continued declining water levels indicate that recharge is not sufficient to meet demand. Water levels in many areas are at or close to historic lows. In 2000, withdrawal from wells was estimated to be 36,000 acre-feet per year. About 4,000 acre-feet per year are estimated to discharge to evapotranspiration or as subsurface outflow. Prior to large-scale ground-water development, ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration and discharge to springs was much larger. Ground water along the eastern margin of the valley between Cedar City and Enoch is unsuitable for domestic use because of high dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations. The predominant ions of Ca and SO4 in this area indicate dissolution of gypsum in the Markagunt Plateau to the east. Data collected during this study were compared to historic data; there is no evidence to indicate deterioration in ground-water quality. The spatial distribution of ground water with high nitrate concentration does not appear to be migrating beyond its previously known extent. No single source can be identified as the cause for elevated nitrate concentrations in ground water. Low nitrogen-15 values north of Cedar City indicate a natural geologic source. Higher nitrogen-15 values toward the center of the basin and associated hydrologic data indicate probable recharge from waste-water effluent. Excess dissolved nitrogen gas and low nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water indicate that denitrification is occurring in some areas. A computer ground-water flow model was developed to simulate flow in the unconsolidated basin fill. The method of determining recharge from irrigation was changed during the calibration process to incorporate more areal and temporal variability. In general, the model accurately simulates water levels and water-level fluctuations and can be considered an adequate tool to help determine the valley-wide effects on water levels of additional ground-water withdrawals and changes in water use. The model was used to simulated water-level changes caused by projecting current withdrawal rates, increased withdrawal rates, and a 10-year drought. Water levels declined 20 to 275 feet in the southern and central parts of the valley and less than 20 feet north of Enoch

Utah

Prototyping structured decision making for water resource management in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

A structured decision making (SDM) approach can help evaluate tradeoffs between conservation and human-benefit objectives by fostering communication and knowledge transfer among stakeholders, decision makers, and the public. However, the process is iterative and completing the full process may take years. It can be difficult to initiate an SDM effort when problems seem insurmountable. Occasionally, SDM may not even be the best or correct approach for addressing the conservation problem at hand. We describe the implementation of an SDM process to help inform difficult decisions related to competing objectives. We convened a diverse stakeholder group from the largest estuary in the western United States; the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Bay-Delta). The stakeholder group consisted of representatives from local, state, and federal agencies, non-profit organizations, and recreational fishers. The stakeholder group agreed on a problem statement and identified four priority objectives related to Chinook salmon, delta smelt, water availability and reliability, and agricultural water use. Furthermore, they proposed 14 candidate management actions to achieve their objectives. The group then used existing quantitative models and data to evaluate trade-offs in proposed management actions to identify areas of agreement of proposed candidate actions. The clear communication of the problem statement and objectives among the stakeholder group, along with evaluation of tradeoffs and uncertainty via decision-support models suggest that a full SDM approach may work in the Bay-Delta. We further communicate lessons learned during our implementation of SDM to help guide future SDM efforts in the region and elsewhere.

California

Modeling to Predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

The Lake Erie beaches in Pennsylvania are a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at monitored beaches in Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa., occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters resulting in potentially unsafe swimming conditions and prompting beach managers to post public advisories or to close beaches to recreation. To supplement the current method for assessing recreational water quality (E. coli concentrations from the previous day), a predictive regression model for E. coli concentrations at Presque Isle Beach 2 was developed from data collected during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons. Model output included predicted E. coli concentrations and exceedance probabilities--the probability that E. coli concentrations would exceed the standard. For this study, E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data were collected during the 2006 recreational season at Presque Isle Beach 2. The data from 2006, an independent year, were used to test (validate) the 2004-2005 predictive regression model and compare the model performance to the current method. Using 2006 data, the 2004-2005 model yielded more correct responses and better predicted exceedances of the standard than the use of E. coli concentrations from the previous day. The differences were not pronounced, however, and more data are needed. For example, the model correctly predicted exceedances of the standard 11 percent of the time (1 out of 9 exceedances that occurred in 2006) whereas using the E. coli concentrations from the previous day did not result in any correctly predicted exceedances. After validation, new models were developed by adding the 2006 data to the 2004-2005 dataset and by analyzing the data in 2- and 3-year combinations. Results showed that excluding the 2004 data (using 2005 and 2006 data only) yielded the best model. Explanatory variables in the 2005-2006 model were log10 turbidity, bird count, and wave height. The 2005-2006 model correctly predicted when the standard would not be exceeded (specificity) with a response of 95.2 percent (178 out of 187 nonexceedances) and correctly predicted when the standard would be exceeded (sensitivity) with a response of 64.3 percent (9 out of 14 exceedances). In all cases, the results from predictive modeling produced higher percentages of correct predictions than using E. coli concentrations from the previous day. Additional data collected each year can be used to test and possibly improve the model. The results of this study will aid beach managers in more rapidly determining when waters are not safe for recreational use and, subsequently, when to close a beach or post an advisory.

Scientific Investigations Report

Cyanotoxin occurrence in the United States: A 20 year retrospective

Cyanobacterial blooms, and associated cyanotoxin occurrence, are a concern because of the potential harms posed to humans, wildlife, and aquatic ecosystem health. Evidence suggests the magnitude, frequency, and duration of cyanobacterial blooms are increasing, and these events represent a significant challenge to freshwaters and, increasingly, marine waters, worldwide. Cyanobacterial blooms routinely receive local and national attention because of occurrence in new locations, recreational closures, drinking-water impacts, animal illnesses and deaths, scientific advances, and novel management and mitigation strategies. Due to public information campaigns at local, state, and federal levels, the public is generally aware of what cyanobacterial blooms look like and potential risks posed to human and animal health. It is difficult now to imagine a time when cyanobacterial blooms were considered an occasional nuisance in lakes and reservoirs, well-known only by limnologists. When I began my career over twenty years ago, however, that was the status. Cyanobacteria were just beginning to capture attention, and they certainly captured mine.

Lakeline

Water-quality conditions with an emphasis on cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds in the Kansas River, Kansas, July 2012 through September 2016

Cyanobacteria cause a multitude of water-quality concerns, including the potential to produce toxins and taste-and-odor compounds that may cause substantial economic and public health concerns, and are of particular interest in lakes, reservoirs, and rivers that are used for drinking-water supply. Extensive cyanobacterial blooms typically do not develop in the Kansas River; however, reservoirs in the lower Kansas River Basin occasionally develop blooms that may affect downstream water quality. During July 2012 through September 2016, continuous and (or) discrete water-quality data were collected at several sites (Wamego, De Soto, and three main reservoir-fed tributaries) on the Kansas River to characterize the sources, frequency and magnitude of occurrence, and causes of cyanobacteria, cyanobacterial toxins, and taste-and-odor compounds and to develop a real-time notification system of changing water-quality conditions that may affect drinking-water treatment. Algal biomass, as estimated by chlorophyll, was consistently higher at the downstream De Soto site than the upstream Wamego site. Higher algal biomass at the De Soto site likely was caused by algal growth during downstream transport without major losses due to grazing by aquatic organisms or other processes. Algal biomass at the Wamego and De Soto sites was negatively correlated with streamflow and total and bioavailable nutrient concentrations. The negative association between algal biomass and nutrients in the Kansas River likely reflects the relatively strong positive association between nutrient concentrations and streamflows. Cyanobacteria were relatively common in the Kansas River but rarely dominated the algal community. Like overall algal biomass, cyanobacterial abundances typically were higher at the De Soto site than the Wamego site. Cyanobacterial abundances generally peaked in late summer or early fall (July through October), with smaller peaks occasionally observed in spring (April through May). Cyanobacteria in the Kansas River rarely exceeded 20,000 cells per milliliter, the abundance at which cyanobacteria may become a concern for drinking-water treatment. Relations between cyanobacterial abundance and streamflow, turbidity, and nutrients in the Kansas River were similar to those between chlorophyll and total phytoplankton abundance, indicating the same processes that influence overall algal biomass and dynamics also are influencing cyanobacteria. The cyanotoxin microcystin was detected in about 27 percent of the samples collected from Kansas River tributary and main-stem sites. Cylindrospermopsin was detected in one sample from the De Soto site. Microcystin occurrence and concentration were similar between the Wamego and De Soto sites. Concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health advisory guidance values for finished drinking water of 0.3 (for bottle-fed infants and pre-school children) and 1.6 micrograms per liter (μg/L; for school-age children and adults) in 6 percent or less of samples collected. These guidance values are for finished drinking water and are not directly applicable to observed environmental concentrations but do provide a benchmark for comparison. Microcystin was detected most often and had the highest concentrations during summer. Though seasonal patterns in microcystin occurrence were generally consistent, seasonal maxima varied by an order of magnitude across years. The taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol (MIB) were detected in about 78 and 43 percent of samples, respectively, collected across all sites (main stem and tributaries). Geosmin and MIB occurrence and concentration varied considerably between the Wamego and De Soto sites. Geosmin was detected in about 67 percent of Wamego samples and 81 percent of De Soto samples. The human detection threshold of 5 nanograms per liter (ng/L) was exceeded for geosmin in about 11 and 17 percent of the samples collected at the Wamego and De Soto sites, respectively. Geosmin was detected during all months of the year at both sites, and there were no clear seasonal patterns. MIB was detected less frequently in the Kansas River than geosmin and was observed in about 42 percent of Wamego samples and 33 percent of De Soto samples. Concentrations exceeded 5 ng/L in about 7 and 5 percent of samples from the Wamego and De Soto sites, respectively. As observed for geosmin, there were no clear seasonal patterns in MIB occurrence or concentration. There seems to be a connection between microcystin detections in the Kansas River and occurrence of microcystin in upstream reservoirs (and tributary streams). Microcystin concentrations greater than 0.3 μg/L may be likely during the summer when streamflow is less than 3,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) and contributions from Milford Lake exceed about 30 percent of total flow in the Kansas River. Observed microcystin concentrations typically were higher at the De Soto site than the Wamego or tributary sites during 2012 through 2016, indicating cyanobacteria may continue to grow and produce microcystin once introduced to the Kansas River. The spatial and temporal patterns in geosmin and MIB occurrence and concentration were more complex than microcystin. There were no clear connections between geosmin and MIB occurrence in the Kansas River and potential upstream reservoir (or tributary stream) sources. Likewise, there was not a clear relation between algal biomass, cyanobacteria, or actinomycetes bacteria and taste-and-odor events in the Kansas River. Geosmin and MIB were not strongly correlated with any measured environmental variable at either Kansas River site. Continuous water-quality data may be used independently or in combination with regression models to provide information on changing water-quality conditions that may affect drinking-water treatment processes or recreational activities on the Kansas River. For example, logistic regression model outputs and continuous water-quality data may both be indicative of the potential for microcystin events. Logistic regression models that are estimating a high probability of microcystin occurrence at concentrations above 0.1 μg/L can be used as one indicator. Streamflows less than 3,000 ft 3 /s during upstream reservoir releases during periods with low turbidity and increased chlorophyll fluorescence, specific conductance, and pH values may also be indicative of microcystin events. Advanced or near-real-time notification may inform proactive, rather than reactive, management strategies when water-quality conditions are changing rapidly or are likely to cause cyanobacteria-related events.

Kansas

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1925

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1926

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii