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Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law. Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice. What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use. Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher. Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands, Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning. Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05. The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion. Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

The space-time structure of oil and gas field growth in a complex depositional system

Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as "field growth," is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Modeling surficial sand and gravel deposits

Mineral-deposit models are an integral part of quantitative mineral-resource assessment. As the focus of mineral-deposit modeling has moved from metals to industrial minerals, procedure has been modified and may be sufficient to model surficial sand and gravel deposits. Sand and gravel models are needed to assess resource-supply analyses for planning future development and renewal of infrastructure. Successful modeling of sand and gravel deposits must address (1) deposit volumes and geometries, (2) sizes of fragments within the deposits, (3) physical characteristics of the material, and (4) chemical composition and chemical reactivity of the material. Several models of sand and gravel volumes and geometries have been prepared and suggest the following: Sand and gravel deposits in alluvial fans have a median volume of 35 million m3. Deposits in all other geologic settings have a median volume of 5.4 million m3, a median area of 120 ha, and a median thickness of 4 m. The area of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from volume using a regression model (log [area (ha)] =1.47+0.79 log [volume (million m3)]). In similar fashion, the volume of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from area using the regression (log [volume (million m3)]=-1.45+1.07 log [area (ha)]). Classifying deposits by fragment size can be done using models of the percentage of sand, gravel, and silt within deposits. A classification scheme based on fragment size is sufficiently general to be applied anywhere. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

The deposit size frequency method for estimating undiscovered uranium deposits

The deposit size frequency (DSF) method has been developed as a generalization of the method that was used in the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program to estimate the uranium endowment of the United States. The DSF method overcomes difficulties encountered during the NURE program when geologists were asked to provide subjective estimates of (1) the endowed fraction of an area judged favorable (factor F) for the occurrence of undiscovered uranium deposits and (2) the tons of endowed rock per unit area (factor T) within the endowed fraction of the favorable area. Because the magnitudes of factors F and T were unfamiliar to nearly all of the geologists, most geologists responded by estimating the number of undiscovered deposits likely to occur within the favorable area and the average size of these deposits. The DSF method combines factors F and T into a single factor (F??T) that represents the tons of endowed rock per unit area of the undiscovered deposits within the favorable area. Factor F??T, provided by the geologist, is the estimated number of undiscovered deposits per unit area in each of a number of specified deposit-size classes. The number of deposit-size classes and the size interval of each class are based on the data collected from the deposits in known (control) areas. The DSF method affords greater latitude in making subjective estimates than the NURE method and emphasizes more of the everyday experience of exploration geologists. Using the DSF method, new assessments have been made for the "young, organic-rich" surficial uranium deposits in Washington and idaho and for the solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits in the Grand Canyon region in Arizona and adjacent Utah. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

A petroleum discovery-rate forecast revisited-The problem of field growth

A forecast of the future rates of discovery of crude oil and natural gas for the 123,027-km2 Miocene/Pliocene trend in the Gulf of Mexico was made in 1980. This forecast was evaluated in 1988 by comparing two sets of data: (1) the actual versus the forecasted number of fields discovered, and (2) the actual versus the forecasted volumes of crude oil and natural gas discovered with the drilling of 1,820 wildcat wells along the trend between January 1, 1977, and December 31, 1985. The forecast specified that this level of drilling would result in the discovery of 217 fields containing 1.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent; however, 238 fields containing 3.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent were actually discovered. This underestimation is attributed to biases introduced by field growth and, to a lesser degree, the artificially low, pre-1970's price of natural gas that prevented many smaller gas fields from being brought into production at the time of their discovery; most of these fields contained less than 50 billion cubic feet of producible natural gas. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

One-level prediction-A numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment

One-level prediction has been developed as a numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment within large areas. The method is based on a presumed relationship between a numerical measure of geologic favorability and the spatial distribution of metal endowment. Metal endowment within an unexplored area for which the favorability measure is greater than a favorability threshold level is estimated to be proportional to the area of that unexplored portion. The constant of proportionality is the ratio of the discovered endowment found within a suitably chosen control region, which has been explored, to the area of that explored region. In addition to the estimate of undiscovered endowment, a measure of the error of the estimate is also calculated. One-level prediction has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. A subroutine to perform the necessary calculations is included. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Geology of epithermal silver-gold bulk-mining targets, bodie district, Mono County, California

The Bodie mining district in Mono County, California, is zoned with a core polymetallic-quartz vein system and silver- and gold-bearing quartz-adularia veins north and south of the core. The veins formed as a result of repeated normal faulting during doming shortly after extrusion of felsic flows and tuffs, and the magmatic-hydrothermal event seems to span at least 2 Ma. Epithermal mineralization accompanied repeated movement of the normal faults, resulting in vein development in the planes of the faults. The veins occur in a very large area of argillic alteration. Individual mineralized structures commonly formed new fracture planes during separate fault movements, with resulting broad zones of veinlets growing in the walls of the major vein-faults. The veinlet swarms have been found to constitute a target estimated at 75,000,000 tons, averaging 0.037 ounce gold per ton. The target is amenable to bulkmining exploitation. The epithermal mineralogy is simple, with electrum being the most important precious metal mineral. The host veins are typical low-sulfide banded epithermal quartz and adularia structures that filled voids created by the faulting. Historical data show that beneficiation of the simple vein mineralogy is very efficient. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Conditional estimates of the number of podiform chromite deposits

A desirable guide for estimating the number of undiscovered mineral deposits is the number of known deposits per unit area from another well-explored permissive terrain. An analysis of the distribution of 805 podiform chromite deposits among ultramafic rocks in 12 subareas of Oregon and 27 counties of California is used to examine and extend this guide. The average number of deposits in this sample of 39 areas is 0.225 deposits per km2 of ultramafic rock; the frequency distribution is significantly skewed to the right. Probabilistic estimates can be made by using the observation that the lognormal distribution fits the distribution of deposits per unit area. A further improvement in the estimates is available by using the relationship between the area of ultramafic rock and the number of deposits. The number (N) of exposed podiform chromite deposits can be estimated by the following relationship: log10(N)=-0.194+0.577 log10(area of ultramafic rock). The slope is significantly different from both 0.0 and 1.0. Because the slope is less than 1.0, the ratio of deposits to area of permissive rock is a biased estimator when the area of ultramafic rock is different from the median 93 km2. Unbiased estimates of the number of podiform chromite deposits can be made with the regression equation and 80 percent confidence limits presented herein. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Geologic and societal factors affecting the international oceanic transport of aggregate

Crushed stone and sand and gravel are the two main sources of natural aggregate, and together comprise approximately half the volume and tonnage of mined material in the United States. Natural aggregate is a bulky, heavy material without special or unique properties, and it is commonly used near its source of production to minimize haulage cost. However, remoteness is no longer an absolute disqualifier for the production of aggregate. Today interstate aggregate routinely is shipped hundreds of kilometers by rail and barge. In addition, during 1992, the United States imported 1,317,000 metric tons of aggregate from Canada and 1,531,000 metric tons from Mexico. A number of ports on the Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States receive imports of crushed stone from foreign sources for transport to various parts of the eastern United States. These areas either lack adequate supplies of aggregate or are augmenting their supplies because they have difficulties meeting current demand. These difficulties may include poor stone quality, environmental permitting problems, or transportation. Certain societal and geologic conditions of New York City and Philadelphia along the Atlantic Coast, and Tampa and New Orleans along the Gulf Coast, are discussed to demonstrate the different combinations of issues that contribute to the economic viability of importing crushed stone. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

An integrated data-directed numerical method for estimating the undiscovered mineral endowment in a region

An integrated data-directed numerical method has been developed to estimate the undiscovered mineral endowment within a given area. The method has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. The favorability of uranium concentration was evaluated in each of 2,068 cells defined within the Basin. Favorability was based on the correlated similarity of the geologic characteristics of each cell to the geologic characteristics of five area-related deposit models. Estimates of the undiscovered endowment for each cell were categorized according to deposit type, depth, and cutoff grade. The method can be applied to any mineral or energy commodity provided that the data collected reflect discovered endowment. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Classification of mineral deposits into types using mineralogy with a probabilistic neural network

In order to determine whether it is desirable to quantify mineral-deposit models further, a test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types based on mineralogy was conducted. Presence or absence of ore and alteration mineralogy in well-typed deposits were used to train the network. To reduce the number of minerals considered, the analyzed data were restricted to minerals present in at least 20% of at least one deposit type. An advantage of this restriction is that single or rare occurrences of minerals did not dominate the results. Probabilistic neural networks can provide mathematically sound confidence measures based on Bayes theorem and are relatively insensitive to outliers. Founded on Parzen density estimation, they require no assumptions about distributions of random variables used for classification, even handling multimodal distributions. They train quickly and work as well as, or better than, multiple-layer feedforward networks. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class and each variable. The training set was reduced to the presence or absence of 58 reported minerals in eight deposit types. The training set included: 49 Cyprus massive sulfide deposits; 200 kuroko massive sulfide deposits; 59 Comstock epithermal vein gold districts; 17 quartzalunite epithermal gold deposits; 25 Creede epithermal gold deposits; 28 sedimentary-exhalative zinc-lead deposits; 28 Sado epithermal vein gold deposits; and 100 porphyry copper deposits. The most common training problem was the error of classifying about 27% of Cyprus-type deposits in the training set as kuroko. In independent tests with deposits not used in the training set, 88% of 224 kuroko massive sulfide deposits were classed correctly, 92% of 25 porphyry copper deposits, 78% of 9 Comstock epithermal gold-silver districts, and 83% of six quartzalunite epithermal gold deposits were classed correctly. Across all deposit types, 88% of deposits in the validation dataset were correctly classed. Misclassifications were most common if a deposit was characterized by only a few minerals, e.g., pyrite, chalcopyrite,and sphalerite. The success rate jumped to 98% correctly classed deposits when just two rock types were added. Such a high success rate of the probabilistic neural network suggests that not only should this preliminary test be expanded to include other deposit types, but that other deposit features should be added.

Nonrenewable Resources

The response of a Kansas winter bird community to weather, photoperiod, and year

We conducted a bird census along the same route nearly each week for 14 winters (194 censuses), and compared the mean number of species per station and the total number of species recorded on the census with the length of photoperiod and weather variables. We found significant differences among winters for both indicators of species richness. This result is consistent with previous studies in which abundance of food was measured in the same general area. Both indicators of species richness were negatively associated with the number of days after 1 November. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that wintering species dependent on nonrenewed food resources lose individuals to mortality or emigration. Further, there was a positive relationship between photoperiod and both indicators of species richness. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that the detection of individuals in the early morning hours increases with the amount of daylight they have available for foraging and social behaviors. Wind speed and temperature had negative and positive relationships, respectively, to species richness. The number of species per station was greatest on days when the ground was covered with dew and least on days when snow depth was more than 15 cm. When the 'winters' were divided into four 30-day 'quarters', most of the 61 species were recorded with equal frequency in each quarter. Eight species were detected less frequently at the end of winter than in the beginning. Four species exhibited the reverse pattern. Two species were recorded more frequently at the beginning and at the end of the winter than during the middle. Temperature, wind, photoperiod, successive winter day, year, and species-specific evolutionary history all affect winter bird species richness.

The Wilson Bulletin

Geothermal energy: clean power from the Earth's heat

Societies in the 21st century require enormous amounts of energy to drive the machines of commerce and to sustain the lifestyles that many people have come to expect. Today, most of this energy is derived from oil, natural gas, and coal, supplemented by nuclear power. Local exceptions exist, but oil is by far the most common source of energy worldwide. Oil resources, however, are nonrenewable and concentrated in only a few places around the globe, creating uncertainty in long-term supply for many nations. At the time of the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, about a third of the United States oil supply was imported, mostly from that region. An interruption in the flow of this import disrupted nearly every citizen’s daily life, as well as the Nation’s economy. In response, the Federal Government launched substantial programs to accelerate development of means to increasingly harness “alternative energies”—primarily biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind. The new emphasis on simultaneously pursuing development of several sources of energy recognized the timeless wisdom found in the proverb of “not putting all eggs in one basket.” This book helps explain the role that geothermal resources can play in helping promote such diversity and in satisfying our Nation’s vast energy needs as we enter a new millennium. For centuries, people have enjoyed the benefits of geothermal energy available at hot springs, but it is only through technological advances made during the 20th century that we can tap this energy source in the subsurface and use it in a variety of ways, including the generation of electricity. Geothermal resources are simply exploitable concentrations of the Earth’s natural heat (thermal energy). The Earth is a bountiful source of thermal energy, continuously producing heat at depth, primarily by the decay of naturally occurring radioactive isotopes—principally of uranium, thorium, and potassium—that occur in small amounts in all rocks. This heat then rises to and through the Earth’s surface, where it escapes into the atmosphere. The amount of heat that flows annually from the Earth into the atmosphere is enormous—equivalent to ten times the annual energy consumption of the United States and more than that needed to power all nations of the world, if it could be fully harnessed. Even if only 1 percent of the thermal energy contained within the uppermost 10 kilometers of our planet could be tapped, this amount would be 500 times that contained in all oil and gas resources of the world. How might we benefit from this vast amount of thermal energy beneath our feet? Where, by what means, and how much of the Earth’s natural heat can be usefully harnessed? These are especially important questions to contemplate, because global population is expected to soon exceed seven billion and many scientists believe that the world’s fossilfuel resources may be substantially depleted within this century. Faced with such prospects, both the public and private sectors are working toward more fully utilizing the Earth’s abundant thermal energy and other alternative energy resources. A skeptic might question the wisdom of devoting much national effort to geothermal energy development, especially because many experts think that geothermal heat can contribute at most about 10 percent to the Nation’s energy supply using current technologies. However, ongoing advances in exploration and heat-extraction technologies are improving our ability to use the resource and may substantially increase the geothermal contribution to the Nation’s energy supply. In an attempt to help national planners and average citizens alike understand the nature and energy potential of geothermal resources, this book (1) describes the distribution and nature of geothermal energy, (2) reviews the common types of geothermal systems that provide useful energy with current technology, (3) considers potential geothermal resources that might someday be tapped with developing technologies, and (4) summarizes the role of earth-science information in assessing and harnessing geothermal resources wherever they occur worldwide. The predecessor to this book (Tapping the Earth’s Natural Heat, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1125, published in 1994) summarized the situation in the early 1990s. In an effort to support national energy planners, this new circular incorporates more recent advances in geothermal science and technology.

Circular

Interactive energy atlas for Colorado and New Mexico: An online resource for decisionmakers

Throughout the western United States, increased demand for energy is driving the rapid development of nonrenewable and renewable energy resources. Resource managers must balance the benefits of energy development with the potential consequences for ecological resources and ecosystem services. To facilitate access to geospatial data related to energy resources, energy infrastructure, and natural resources that may be affected by energy development, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed an online Interactive Energy Atlas (Energy Atlas) for Colorado and New Mexico. The Energy Atlas is designed to meet the needs of varied users who seek information about energy in the western United States. The Energy Atlas has two primary capabilities: a geographic information system (GIS) data viewer and an interactive map gallery. The GIS data viewer allows users to preview and download GIS data related to energy potential and development in Colorado and New Mexico. The interactive map gallery contains a collection of maps that compile and summarize thematically related data layers in a user-friendly format. The maps are dynamic, allowing users to explore data at different resolutions and obtain information about the features being displayed. The Energy Atlas also includes an interactive decision-support tool, which allows users to explore the potential consequences of energy development for species that vary in their sensitivity to disturbance.

Colorado, New Mexico

Geohydrologic Framework of Recharge and Seawater Intrusion in the Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Pajaro Valley is a coastal watershed of 160 square miles located along Monterey Bay north of Elkhorn Slough and south of the city of Santa Cruz. The valley has been predominantly developed for agriculture since the late 1800s. In 1984 the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency (PVWMA) was formed and was delegated with the responsibility of the management of the water resources within the Pajaro Valley by the State of California. About 84 percent of the water is used for agriculture and 16 percent is used for industrial and municipal water supply; almost all of the demand is supplied by ground water. Ground-water pumpage varies with seasonal and climatic periods. The alluvial aquifers are composed of Quaternary- and Tertiary-aged sediments that are layered marine and terrestrial coarse-grained deposits separated by extensive fine-grained deposits that potentially restrict vertical movement of ground water and seawater intrusion in the coastal subareas. The coarse-grained deposits, which persist over large areas, control pumpage and related seawater intrusion. The Aromas Sand crops out throughout the north and central parts of the PVWMA area and offshore on the continental shelf and in Monterey submarine canyon. Because many of the wells in the coastal and inland subregions are screened at depths of 200 to 400 feet below land surface, a direct avenue is provided for seawater intrusion through the coarse-grained deposits of the shallower alluvium and Aromas Sand. Geophysical logs from monitoring wells indicate discrete zones of saline water that are related to pumpage and seawater intrusion in the aquifers of the shallower alluvium and upper Aromas Sand in the upper-aquifer system and to deeper saline waters in the lower Aromas Sand within the lower-aquifer system. The precipitation data indicate that there were at least nine dry and nine wet periods that range from 2 to 19 years during the period of record, 1880?1997. The ground-water pumpage, runoff, streamflow and related water quality of streamflow also vary with seasonal and climatic periods. Recharge occurs from deep percolation of precipitation and from infiltration of streamflow. Streamflow originates from local runoff and from outside the valley as inflow from the Pajaro River. Although partly regulated, streamflow in the Pajaro River at Chittenden is less than 200 cubic feet per second 88 percent of the time and is less than 12 cubic feet per second 50 percent of the time. Streamflow water-quality data suggest that there may be several sources of poor-quality water that contribute to elevated chloride, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations in streamflow. The poor water quality occurring during lower streamflows indicates that low flows may be an additional source of salinity for ground-water recharge as streamflow infiltration along the Pajaro River. The geochemical data from this study indicate that the two main sources of recharge are deep percolation of local runoff and streamflow infiltration of Pajaro River water. The geophysical and geochemical data suggest that only the shallow alluvial aquifer and parts of the upper Aromas Sand that constitute the upper-aquifer system are being replenished by recent recharge in the coastal areas of Pajaro Valley and represent the renewable ground-water resources. These data also suggest that there is very little vertical flow through the layered aquifer systems in the coastal regions. The confining aquitards are laterally extensive but may be missing in places owing to fluvial erosion or offsetting by fault movement. Geochemical and geophysical data indicate that the ground water from some parts of the upper and lower Aromas Sand in the coastal regions was recharged thousands of years ago and may, in part, represent nonrenewable ground-water resources. The analysis of major-ion chemistry, in combination with isotope and trace-element/chloride ratios, indicates that the coastal ground-water and surface-water samples

Water-Resources Investigations Report

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular