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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Impacts of climate changes and amplified natural disturbance on global ecosystems

Natural disturbances maintain biological diversity and landscape heterogeneity and initiate ecosystem renewal and reorganization. However, the severity, frequency, and extent of many disturbances have increased substantially in recent decades as the result of anthropogenic climate change. Disturbances can be discrete, short-duration events, such as wildfires or hurricanes, or can exert persistent, cumulative stresses on an ecosystem (for example, ongoing warming of ocean or land surface temperatures). Landscape and ecosystem impacts can occur from a single disturbance, from several disturbances acting independently, or from the interactions of multiple, linked disturbances. Key, climate-related disturbances affecting global biomes and ecosystems include shifting temperature and hydrologic regimes (for example, warming surface temperatures and increasing aridity), increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as heatwaves, severe droughts, storms, and hurricanes, warming-induced permafrost thaw, and heightened wildfire activity and insect-caused tree mortality. For ecosystems and landscapes, the consequences of climate-amplified disturbance include forced poleward and upward movement of plant and animal species, widespread tree mortality and reduced forest productivity, changes in plant community structure and species distributions, reduced biodiversity, increased erosion, debris flows, wetland dynamism, declining sea ice extent, more frequent storm-driven tides and saltwater intrusion, and increased landscape flammability.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review

Weather, climate, and climate change all effect outdoor recreation and tourism, and will continue to cause a multitude of effects as the climate warms. We conduct a systematic literature review to better understand how weather, climate, and climate change affect outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism across the United States. We specifically explore how the effects differ by recreational activity, and how visitors and supply-side tourism operators perceive these effects and risks. The 82 papers reviewed show the complex ways in which weather, climate, and climate change may affect outdoor recreation, with common themes being an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities, a shorter season to participate in snow-dependent activities, and larger negative effects to activities that depend on somewhat consistent precipitation levels (e.g., snow-based recreation, water-based recreation, fishing). Nature-based tourists perceive a variety of climate change effects on tourism, and some recreationists have already changed their behavior as a result of climate change. Nature-based tourism suppliers are already noticing a wide variety of climate change effects, including shifts in seasonality of specific activities and visitation overall. Collectively, this review provides insights into our current understanding of climate change and outdoor recreation and opportunities for future research.

PLOS Climate↗
USGS2011

Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2011

Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

Human Organization↗
USGS2021

Shift of potential natural vegetation against global climate change under historical, current and future scenarios

Potential natural vegetation (PNV), the final successional stage of vegetation, plays a key role in ecological restoration, the design of nature reserves, and development of agriculture and livestock production. Meteorological data from historical and current periods including the last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM), mid Holocene (MH) periods and the present day (PD), plus derived data from 2050 and 2070, in conjunction with the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) model, were used to classify global PNV. The 42 classes of global PNV were regrouped into 10 groups to facilitate analysis of spatial changes. Finally, spatio-temporal patterns and successional processes of global PNV as well as the response to climate changes were analysed. Our study made the following five conclusions. (1) Only one missing class (IA1 frigid-extrarid frigid desert, alpine desert) arose in periods of LIG, MH, 2050, and 2070 for global PNV. (2) The frigid-arid groups were mainly distributed in higher latitudes and elevations, but temperate-humid groups and tropical-perhumid groups occurred in middle and low latitudes, respectively. Temperate zonal forest steppe, warm desert, savanna and tropical zonal forest steppe increased, while six other groups decreased. (3) The conversion from temperate zonal forest steppe to tundra and alpine steppe from LIG to LGM occupied the largest area, indicating a drastic shift in climate and the associated response of terrestrial vegetation sensitive to climate change. (4) The CSCS could be used to simulate the long-term succession of global PNV. (5) As a consequence of global warming, forests shifted to the northern hemisphere and Tibet, areas with much higher latitude and elevation. The PNV groups with greater shift distance revealed the more serious effects of global climate change on vegetation.

Rangeland Journal↗
USGS2006

Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2022

Africa’s drylands in a changing world: Challenges for wildlife conservation under climate and land-use changes in the Greater Etosha Landscape

Proclaimed in 1907, Etosha National Park in northern Namibia is an iconic dryland system with a rich history of wildlife conservation and research. A recent research symposium on wildlife conservation in the Greater Etosha Landscape (GEL) highlighted increased concern of how intensification of global change will affect wildlife conservation based on participant responses to a questionnaire. The GEL includes Etosha and surrounding areas, the latter divided by a veterinary fence into large, private farms to the south and communal areas of residential and farming land to the north. Here, we leverage our knowledge of this ecosystem to provide insight into the broader challenges facing wildlife conservation in this vulnerable dryland environment. We first look backward, summarizing the history of wildlife conservation and research trends in the GEL based on a literature review, providing a broad-scale understanding of the socioecological processes that drive dryland system dynamics. We then look forward, focusing on eight key areas of challenge and opportunity for this ecosystem: climate change, water availability and quality, vegetation and fire management, adaptability of wildlife populations, disease risk, human-wildlife conflict, wildlife crime, and human dimensions of wildlife conservation. Using this model system, we summarize key lessons and identify critical threats highlighting future research needs to support wildlife management. Research in the GEL has followed a trajectory seen elsewhere reflecting an increase in complexity and integration across biological scales over time. Yet, despite these trends, a gap exists between the scope of recent research efforts and the needs of wildlife conservation to adapt to climate and land-use changes. Given the complex nature of climate change, in addition to locally existing system stressors, a framework of forward-thinking adaptive management to address these challenges, supported by integrative and multidisciplinary research could be beneficial. One critical area for growth is to better integrate research and wildlife management across land-use types. Such efforts have the potential to support wildlife conservation efforts and human development goals, while building resilience against the impacts of climate change. While our conclusions reflect the specifics of the GEL ecosystem, they have direct relevance for other African dryland systems impacted by global change.

Africa, Greater Etosha Landscape↗
USGS2024

Resource stewardship objectives and actions for climate change-sensitive cultural and natural resources in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Outputs from January–February 2022 climate change adaptation strategy development

This report presents climate change-informed resource stewardship strategies for diverse Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve natural and cultural resources. The strategies were developed in early 2022 by park staff and other subject-matter experts in a scenario-based climate change adaptation planning process. Strategy development was facilitated by National Park Service (NPS) climate change adaptation specialists. Strategies address critical climate change implications for park resources identified in an immediately preceding (fall-2021) climate-resource scenario development process. The overall, nearly-year-long scenario- and strategy-development process was entirely virtual due

Report↗
USGS2015

Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (−3 to −45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to −6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.

Nebraska↗
USGS2018

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

Biodiversity —the variety of life on Earth—provides vital services that support and improve human health and well-being. Ecosystems, which are composed of living things that interact with the physical environment, provide numerous essential benefits to people. These benefits, termed ecosystem services, encompass four primary functions: provisioning materials, such as food and fiber; regulating critical parts of the environment, such as water quality and erosion control; providing cultural services, such as recreational opportunities and aesthetic value; and providing supporting services, such as nutrient cycling. Climate change poses many threats and potential disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as to the ecosystem services on which people depend. Building on the findings of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), this chapter provides additional evidence that climate change is significantly impacting ecosystems and biodiversity in the United States. Mounting evidence also demonstrates that climate change is increasingly compromising the ecosystem services that sustain human communities, economies, and well-being. Both human and natural systems respond to change, but their ability to respond and thrive under new conditions is determined by their adaptive capacity, which may be inadequate to keep pace with rapid change. Our understanding of climate change impacts and the responses of biodiversity and ecosystems has improved since NCA3. The expected consequences of climate change will vary by region, species, and ecosystem type. Management responses are evolving as new tools and approaches are developed and implemented; however, they may not be able to overcome the negative impacts of climate change. Although efforts have been made since NCA3 to incorporate climate adaptation strategies into natural resource management, significant work remains to comprehensively implement climate-informed planning. This chapter presents additional evidence for climate change impacts to biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services, reflecting increased confidence in the findings reported in NCA3. The chapter also illustrates the complex and interrelated nature of climate change impacts to biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide.

Report↗
USGS2011

Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr −1 (1 teragram = 10 12 g), mainly due to CO 2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr −1 , mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr −1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr −1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr −1 ). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C. Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific ecoregions. From a long-term perspective, CO 2 fertilization plays a key role in maintaining higher NPP. However, our study shows that the increase in C sequestration by CO 2 fertilization is largely offset by logging/land use change and wildland fires.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2021

National seed strategy progress report, 2015-2020

Native plants are the true green infrastructure we rely on for healthy, resilient, and biodiverse ecosystems. They protect us against climate change and natural disasters; create habitat for wildlife, rare species, and pollinators; and are vital for carbon sequestration. Without native plants, especially their seeds, we do not have the ability to restore functional ecosystems after natural disasters and mitigate the effects of climate change. Investing now in coordinated, research-driven native seed production is an efficient and cost-effective nature-based solution for improving ecosystem resilience in the face of the climate and extinction crisis. Federal government agencies (see list on page 13 and their partners are collaborating to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration through the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (National Seed Strategy) to get the right seed in the right place at the right time. The National Seed Strategy is a public-private collaboration to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration projects to ensure ecosystem resilience and the health and prosperity of future generations. Developed by the Plant Conservation Alliance (PCA) in 2015, the National Seed Strategy harnesses cross sector botanical expertise, supports rural, agricultural, minority, and tribal livelihoods, and provides training opportunities to our next generation of natural resource professionals to maintain and preserve our iconic habitats. This science-driven national effort is integral to the Nation’s conservation priorities, including the commitment to conserve 30% of America’s lands and waters by 2030 as outlined in Executive Order 14008 on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. Moreover, the National Seed Strategy is recognized in the objectives of the 2021 DOI Invasive Species Strategic Plan (DOI 2021) and addresses national priorities such as climate change, wildland fire, and tribal engagement. The National Seed Strategy charts a course for federal, tribal, state, local and private partners to increase private and public sector coordination on native seed development, thereby accelerating the pace and scale of restoration. Success is being achieved through the establishment of nationwide networks of seed collectors, researchers to develop seed, farmers to grow native seed, nurseries and seed storage facilities to supply adequate quantities of appropriate seed, and restoration ecologists.

Progress Report↗
USGS2016

Climate Change Science Activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has actively pursued research in the effects of climate change on the hydrology of New England. Ongoing focus areas of climate change science activities of the USGS in New England include the following: • Hydrologic climate-response data (initiating or expanding long-term hydrologic climate-response data collection networks to detect and monitor climate-related changes in hydrology) • Relations between historical climatic and hydrologic variation (investigating historic relations between long-term climatic variation and hydrologic variation and connecting these relations to future conditions as forecasted by the Interagency Panel on Climate Change (Nakićenović and others, 2000) • Hydrologic change on natural and human (incorporating climate change scenarios into assessments of how flows in streams or water levels in aquifers may change) • Relations between climatic and hydrologic variation (characterizing impacts of climate change on floods and droughts, the long-term availability of water supplies for societal and natural uses in response to climate changes) • Developing tools to forecast ecosystem change and water resources management (developing regionally consistent tools for forecasting ecosystem change and resource management) This fact sheet presents recent climate change investigations of the USGS in New England using selected recent publications. These publications highlight the broad spectrum of expertise and commitment to understanding the relations of climate change and water resources in New England.

New England↗
USGS2020

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2024

Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards

A rigorous analysis of 21st Century multi-hazard exposure for U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastal communities indicates that up to 70% of residents will be exposed daily to shallow and emerging groundwater by ~2100, 15 times higher than from surficial flooding alone. This threat further exacerbates other coastal stressors, such as flooding, subsidence, and beach erosion, that impact these vulnerable coastal communities and ecosystems under expected future climate change scenarios.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, ↗
USGS2013

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ), wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), and Karner blue butterfly ( Plebejus melissa samuelis ). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2013

Moving forward with imperfect information

This chapter summarized the scope of what is known and not known about climate in the Southwestern United States. There is now more evidence and more agreement among climate scientists about the physical climate and related impacts in the Southwest compared with that represented in the 2009 National Climate Assessment (Karl, Melillo, and Peterson 2009). However, there remain uncertainties about the climate system, the complexities within climate models, the related impacts to the biophysical environment, and the use of climate information on decision making. Uncertainty is introduced in each step of the climate planning-an-response process--in the scenarios used to drive the climate models, the information used to construct the models, and the interpretation and use of the model' data for planning and decision making (Figure 19.1). There are server key challenge, drawn from recommendations of the authors of this report, that contribute to these uncertainties in the Southwest: - There is a dearth of climate observations at high elevations and on the lands of Native nations. - There is limited understanding of the influence of climate change on natural variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillations, Pacific Decadal Oscillation), extreme events (droughts, floods), and the marine layer align coastal California. - Climate models, downscaling, and resulting projection of the physical climate are imperfect. Representing the influence of the diverse topography of the Southwest on regional climate is a particular challenge. - The impacts of climate change on key components of the natural ecosystems (including species and terrestrial ecosystems) are ill-defined. - The adaptive capacity of decision-making entities and legal systems to handle climate impacts is unclear. This creates a challenge for identifying vulnerabilities to climate in the Southwest. - Regulation, legislation, and political and social responses too climate all play important roles in our ability to adapt to climate impacts and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. - Climate change is one of multiple stresses affecting the physical, biological, social, and economic systems of the Southwest, with population growth (and its related resource consumption, pollution, and land-sue changes) being particularly important.

Book chapter↗