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33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Forest pathology in Hawaii

Native Hawaiian forests are characterised by a high degree of endemism, including pathogens as well as their hosts. With the exceptions of koa (Acacia koa Gray), possibly maile (Alyxia oliviformis Gaud.), and, in the past, sandalwood (Santalum spp.), forest species are of little commercial value. On the other hand, these forests are immensely important from a cultural, ecological, and evolutionary standpoint. Forest disease research was lacking during the mid-twentieth century, but increased markedly with the recognition of ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha Gaud.) decline in the 1970s. Because many pathogens are themselves endemic, or are assumed to be, having evolved with their hosts, research emphasis in natural areas is on understanding host-parasite interactions and evolutionary influences, rather than disease control. Aside from management of native forests, attempts at establishing a commercial forest industry have included importation of several species of pine, Araucaria, and Eucalyptus as timber crops, and of numerous ornamentals. Diseases of these species have been introduced with their hosts. The attacking of native species by introduced pathogens is problematic - for example, Armillaria mellea (Vahl ex Fr.) Que??l. on koa and mamane (Sophora chrysophylla (Salisb.) Seem.). Much work remains to be done in both native and commercial aspects of Hawaiian forest pathology.

New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science↗
USGS2023

Obtaining and applying public data for training students in technical statistical writing: Case studies with data from U.S. Geological Survey and general ecological literature

Effective undergraduate statistical education requires training using real-world data. Textbook datasets seldom match the complexities and messiness of real-world data and finding these datasets can be challenging for educators. Consulting and industrial datasets often have nondisclosure agreements. Academic datasets often require subject area expertise beyond those of a general education or lack connections to real-world applications. Many governments, including the United States, now require the release of data from projects they directly complete or fund though grants and contracts. We show how statistical educators may find datasets and incorporate them into courses. Specifically, we use two examples from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and one example from the ecology literature. We demonstrate the use of these datasets in an upper-level analysis of variance (ANOVA) class. In addition to describing how we found the datasets, we describe how to include them into course work and the course’s student assessments. We have used these datasets over multiple semesters and included student feedback from these courses. Although our examples focus on an ANOVA class, the general methods for finding data shared here could be used for statistical classes ranging from high school to graduate education. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education↗
USGS1996

Movement patterns of wintering lesser scaup in Grand Calumet River - Indiana Harbor Canal, Indiana

Lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ) winter in the Grand Calumet River—Indiana Harbor Canal (GCR-IHC) drainage into southern Lake Michigan, a polluted oasis in the highly urban and industrial corridor of northern Illinois and Indiana. The GCR-IHC is an important wintering area for lesser scaup in northwestern Indiana, especially after Lake Michigan freezes, because of the lack of other wildlife habitat in the area. We investigated the feeding and movement patterns of these wintering lesser scaup to better understand the ecological significance of this area to wintering waterfowl and to interpret contaminant levels in these lesser scaup. We implanted radio transmitters in 20 individuals in January 1994 and tracked them until early March 1994. Four lesser scaup disappeared and four died within the first 2 weeks after implantation; 12 lesser scaup remained in the GCR-IHC for the next 6–7 weeks. Individual radio-marked scaup (n = 12) were located in the GCR-IHC on an average of 62.2% (extreme values = 25–87%) of the searches. No radio-marked lesser scaup were located outside the GCR-IHC. Lesser scaup were feeding during 23% of the radio fixes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2024

Annotated bibliography of scientific research relevant to oil and gas reclamation best management practices in the western United States, published from 1969 through 2020

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey has created a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for lands in the western United States (U.S.). Oil and gas development on public lands is a long-standing and substantial component of local and regional economies and has expanded in recent decades, particularly on public lands in the western U.S. This development is associated with extensive networks of pipelines, roads, and processing facilities, across which reclamation is Federally mandated following initial well pad development (“interim” reclamation) and once resource extraction is complete (“final” reclamation). Reclamation is critical for recovering ecological services to energy-affected lands, including vegetation productivity, wildlife habitat, water and air quality, and soil stability (for example, resistance to wind and water erosion). However, reclamation of oil and gas affected lands in the western U.S. has proved challenging due to an array of regulatory and environmental factors, such as minimally developed soils, short growing seasons, herbivory, high winds, invasive species, rugged terrain, and in particular, arid climates associated with low total precipitation, high evapotranspiration rates, and highly variable precipitation patterns. We compiled and summarized journal articles, government reports, technical reports, proceedings, and theses and dissertations relevant to oil and gas reclamation. We constrained our search to products published on or before December 31, 2020 but did not limit our search by a starting date; the earliest product resulting from this effort was published in March 1969. Second, we manually scanned the last 15 years (2005-2020) of tables of contents in journals, bibliographies, and proceedings of which we were aware would contain articles highly relevant to this bibliography. We carried out the search for these products through multiple means: (1) performing a structured search of two reference databases, (2) examining articles published since 2005 in highly relevant scientific journals and conference proceedings, and (3) reviewing additional material suggested by authors of products identified in steps 1 and 2. Our search was intentionally broad in order to identify as much relevant work as possible, much of which is professionally applied and tested within the industry of oil and gas reclamation, but which remains unpublished in scientific journals. We refined the initial list of products by removing: (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) products that were not relevant to the arid ecosystems of western North America, (4) products that were not released as research, data products, or review articles in journals or as formal scientific reports, and (5) products with data which were not relevant to reclamation of oil and gas-affected lands, or for which the study did not present new data, findings, or syntheses relevant to reclamation of oil and gas-affected lands. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assigned standardized management topics to each. Management topics are intended to aid online searching within the bibliography and are described in more detail in the Methods Section of this report; they include what type of disturbance the product addresses (well pads, mining, pipelines), what aspect of oil and gas reclamation they pertain to (practices, standards, monitoring), what type of data are present in the product (for instance soil or vegetation recovery data), and an indication if the product were from a source other than a published, peer-reviewed outlet (such as dissertations or unpublished professional reports – these are identified as grey literature). The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original product, and a formal peer-review. Our initial searches resulted in 3,197 total products, of which 290 met our criteria for inclusion. “Reclamation Practices” is by far the management topic most addressed, followed by “Reclamation Monitoring,” for example, products assessing what and how monitoring methods are used to track and measure reclamation outcome. This document may be accessed at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20231068 or from the U.S. Geological Survey Publication Warehouse ( https://pubs.usgs.gov/ ). The 1-page product summaries herein will also be used to create a bibliography at https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers that includes links to each original product, where available, and in which subject matter will be searchable by topic, location, and year. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to reclaim landscapes across the western U.S. which have been affected by oil and gas development.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Assessment of relative accuracy in the determination of organic matter concentrations in aquatic systems

Accurate determinations of total (TOC), dissolved (DOC) and particulate (POC) organic carbon concentrations are critical for understanding the geochemical, environmental, and ecological roles of aquatic organic matter. Of particular significance for the drinking water industry, TOC measurements are the basis for compliance with US EPA regulations. The results of an interlaboratory comparison designed to identify problems associated with the determination of organic matter concentrations in drinking water supplies are presented. The study involved 31 laboratories and a variety of commercially available analytical instruments. All participating laboratories performed well on samples of potassium hydrogen phthalate (KHP), a compound commonly used as a standard in carbon analysis. However, problems associated with the oxidation of difficult to oxidize compounds, such as dodecylbenzene sulfonic acid and caffeine, were noted. Humic substances posed fewer problems for analysts. Particulate organic matter (POM) in the form of polystyrene beads, freeze-dried bacteria and pulverized leaf material were the most difficult for all analysts, with a wide range of performances reported. The POM results indicate that the methods surveyed in this study are inappropriate for the accurate determination of POC and TOC concentration. Finally, several analysts had difficulty in efficiently separating inorganic carbon from KHP solutions, thereby biasing DOC results.

Journal of Environmental Monitoring↗
USGS2014

An ecological basis for future fish habitat restoration efforts in the Huron-Erie Corridor

This perspective describes the major natural and anthropogenic forces driving change in the abundance and quality of fish habitats in the Huron-Erie Corridor (HEC), the Great Lakes connecting channel comprised of the St. Clair River, the Lake St. Clair, and the Detroit River. Channels connecting the Laurentian Great Lakes discharge large volumes of water equal to or greater than most other large rivers in the world that is of consistent high quality and volume, all year. Owing to creation of the St. Lawrence Seaway through the Great Lakes, the connecting channels have been modified by dredging over 200 km of deep-draft shipping lanes with a maintained depth of no less than 8.2 m. Combined with modification of their shorelines for housing and industries, use of the connecting channels for discharges of industrial and municipal wastes and shipping has resulted in numerous beneficial use impairments, such as restrictions on fish and wildlife consumption, degradation of fish and wildlife populations, and losses of fish and wildlife habitat. Various options for remediation of native fish populations and their habitats in the Great Lakes connecting channels, including construction of spawning habitat for threatened and high-value food fishes, such as lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens), walleye (Sander vitreus), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), have been implemented successfully in two of the channels, and form the basis for further recommended research described in this article.

Huron-Erie corridor↗
USGS2012

Occupancy rates of primary burrowing crayfish in natural and disturbed large river bottomlands

Among crayfish, primary burrowing species are the least understood ecologically. Many primary burrowing crayfish inhabit floodplains where forested landscapes have been fragmented by agricultural, industrial, or residential uses. In this study, site occupancy rates (ψ) were modeled for two primary burrowing crayfish, Fallicambarus fodiens (Cottle, 1863) and Cambarus thomai Jezerinac, 1993, from Ohio and Kanawha river floodplains in West Virginia, U.S.A. Fallicambarus fodiens is one of West Virginia’s rarest crayfish, while C. thomai is prevalent in most wetlands along both river floodplains. Occupancy rate modeling incorporated four environmental covariates (forest age, soil type, tree frequency, and land use). Based on presence/absence data, forests with tree ages >100 years (ΔQAICc = 0) and sites with loam soils (ΔQAICc = 1.80) were most likely to harbor F. fodiens populations. For C. thomai, several models were supported owing to model selection uncertainty, but those with the land use covariate had more total model weight (total w i = 0 . 54 ) than all other covariate models. Cambarus thomai rarely occupied industrial/agricultural sites, but were often present in forested and residential sites. Although the influence of covariates on site occupancy differed between species, both taxa readily utilized mature forested habitats when available. Conservation actions for F. fodiens and C. thomai should focus on preserving forested tracts along large river floodplains

Journal of Crustacean Biology↗
USGS2021

The spatial-temporal relationship of blue-winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modeling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

1. Migratory waterfowl facilitate long distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens and are increasingly recognized as contributing to the geographic spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). AIV are globally distributed and have the potential to produce highly contagious poultry disease, economically impact both large-scale and backyard poultry producers, and raise the specter of epidemics and pandemics in human populations. 2. Because migratory waterfowl behavior varies across multiple spatial and temporal scales, the timing and distribution of wild bird AIV introductions to poultry are also heterogeneous in time and space. To help reduce economic impacts to the poultry industry and enable poultry producers to better anticipate when and where poultry outbreaks may occur, it is critically important to consider the movement ecology of the waterfowl species transporting and transmitting AIV. 3. We used telemetry for a geographically widespread and common AIV host, blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ; BWTE), to model reservoir host movement states with respect to backyard and commercial poultry facilities in the United States. Our modeling framework enabled us to estimate wild bird proximity to poultry facilities while concurrently assessing the influence of poultry facilities on BWTE movement state transition. Our primary objective was to estimate the likelihood of duck and poultry overlap by estimating when and where BWTE were geographically closest to poultry. 4. Synthesis and applications . Migratory waterfowl facilitate dispersal of the avian influenza viruses that cause highly contagious poultry disease. Movement analysis of blue-winged teal indicates that spatio-temporal overlap between wild birds and poultry facilities varies by season, the poultry type produced (e.g., turkey, chicken), and if the facility is a commercial or backyard operation. These findings are broadly applicable to disease ecology research and can be applied by poultry producers to improve bio-security, enhance poultry management, and prioritize disease surveillance efforts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2017

Effects of industrial and investigator disturbance on Arctic-nesting geese

Oil and gas development on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA may have effects on Arctic-nesting birds. To estimate effects of industrial activity and investigator disturbance on avian productivity, we monitored nests of greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ) with digital cameras and periodic nest visits during 2013–2014 at 2 sites on the ACP. A disturbed site was adjacent to human-made infrastructure and industrial clean-up activities initiated at the onset of the study and a control site was >2 km from sources of industrial disturbance. We assessed variation in estimates of incubation constancy, nest survival, and predator behavior relative to site, year, and distance from industrial activity using nest photographs obtained at 1-minute intervals. We compared analysis of hourly nest survival informed by intensive monitoring with cameras to analysis of daily nest survival informed by traditional nest visit data obtained at intervals of 5–7 days to assess how method and time scale of sampling affect ecological inference. Geese in both sites exhibited high levels of nest attendance and initiated incubation breaks less than once per day. Observer-caused incubation breaks associated with nest visits ( = 37.8 min) were longer than other types of incubation breaks ( = 8.7 min), demonstrating a differential response by nesting geese to direct human encroachment versus indirect vehicular and aircraft traffic. During both years, geese were absent from nests more frequently in the disturbed ( = 0.9 breaks/day) than control ( = 0.6 breaks/day) site, and this break frequency was slightly higher for nests closer to industrial activity. In the year with high rates of depredation, nest survival was positively related to distance from industrial activity and abandoned infrastructure, consistent with predictions of industry-caused effects. This relationship, however, was not evident in the year with reduced predation pressure, likely because of annual variation in arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ) behavior. Analysis of nest survival probability informed by camera data allowed for detection of detailed patterns of variation that were not supported when using only visit data for the same nests. Observer visits were responsible for reductions of 7–35% in nest survival probability, highlighting the importance of minimizing, and controlling for, observer effects in studies of avian productivity. Indirect vehicular and aircraft disturbance posed less risk to nest survival than direct encroachment by observers at nest sites. Therefore, effects of industrial activities on avian productivity in the Arctic can be minimized through practices that limit direct encounters with nests.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture-recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997-2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross' survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications . The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross population was supported by the combination of a low estimate of adult survival for the study period, and a significant relationship between adult survival and a synthetic measure of fishing effort. This study highlights the sensitivity of the black-footed albatross to commercial longline fishing, and should exhort fishery management authorities to find adequate seabirds avoidance methods and to encourage their employment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2018

Modeling White Sucker (Catostomus commersonii) populations to assess commercial harvest influence on age structure

Commercial harvest of White Suckers Catostomus commersonii for bait in the American Lobster Homarus americanus industry is minimally regulated in Maine and there are concerns as to the influence of increasing harvest. We built a population model using parameters (i.e. age-specific mortality, age at maturity, and size-specific fecundity) from literature and field studies to investigate the theoretical effects of harvest mortality on age structure. Because stock-recruitment relations are poorly characterized for this species, we explored the influence of both Beverton-Holt and Ricker recruitment processes. Our base model closely resembled the empirical age structures reported from three unfished lakes in Maine, with four percent of fish in the modeled spawning run being age-10 or older. We assessed the additive effects of harvest mortality on age structure using the full range of possible mortalities. As expected, increased harvest mortality in the model resulted in a decline and disappearance of older age-classes such that few fish greater than age-10 remained in the population under a realistic harvest mortality scenario. This age-truncation was qualitatively comparable to data from aggregate age distributions reported from three commercially harvested lakes in Maine. Because the loss of older fish may compromise population viability, this model is a valuable guidance tool for managers to craft regulation of this growing fishery.

Maine↗
USGS2003

Boll weevil eradication: a model for sea lamprey control?

Invasions of boll weevil ( Anthonomus grandis ) into the United States and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) into the Great Lakes were similar in many ways. Important species (American cotton, Gossypium hirsutum , and lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush ) and the industries they supported were negatively affected. Initial control efforts were unsuccessful until pesticides and application technologies were developed. For boll weevils, controls relying on pesticides evolved into an integrated program that included recommended farming practices and poisoned baits. However, the discovery of a boll weevil sex pheromone in 1964 allowed adoption of an ongoing program of eradication. Despite opposition over concept and cost, insecticides, pheromone traps, poisoned baits, and approved farming practices were used to eradicate boll weevils from Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama by 1999. Using the working back approach along the path of the original invasion, eradication was nearly completed by 2002 in Mississippi and eradication programs were underway in Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Texas. Insecticide use for cotton production decreased 50 to 90%, and cotton yields and farm income increased an average of 78 kg/ha and $190 U.S./ha in areas where boll weevils were eradicated. For sea lampreys, integrated management uses lampricides, barriers to migration, trapping, and release of sterilized males. Although sea lamprey eradication is not currently feasible, recent research on larval and sex pheromones might provide the tools to make it possible. A successful eradication program for sea lampreys starting in Lake Superior and expanding to the lower Great Lakes would ultimately provide huge ecological and economic benefits by eliminating lampricide applications, removing barriers that block teleost fishes, and facilitating the recovery of lake trout. Should the opportunity arise, the concept of sea lamprey eradication should not be rejected out of hand. The successful boll weevil eradication program shows that sea lamprey eradication might be achievable.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS1972

Factors of ecologic succession in oligotrophic fish communities of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Oligotrophic fish communities of the Great Lakes have undergone successive disruptions since the mid-1800s. Major contributing factors have been intensive selective fisheries, extreme modification of the drainage, invasion of marine species, and progressive physical–chemical changes of the lake environments. Lake Ontario was the first to be affected as its basin was settled and industrialized earliest, and it was the first to be connected by canals to the mid-Atlantic where the alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) which ultimately became established in the Great Lakes were abundant. Oligotrophic fish communities were successively disrupted in Lakes Erie, Huron, Michigan, and Superior as the affects of population growth, industrialization, and marine invaders spread upward in the Laurentian drainage.The degree and sequence of response of families offish and species within families differed for each factor, but the sequence of change among families and species has been the same in response to each factor as it affected various lakes at different times. The ultimate result of the disruption of fish communities has been a reduction of productivity of oligotrophic species that ranges from extreme in Lake Ontario to moderate in Lake Superior, and which has reached a state of instability and rapid change in the upper three Great Lakes by the rnid-1900s similar to the situation in Lake Ontario in the mid-1800s. Since oligotrophic species (primarily salmonines, coregonines, and deepwater cottids) are the only kinds of fish that fully occupied the entire volume of the deepwater Great Lakes (Ontario, Huron, Michigan, and Superior), the fish biomass of these lakes has been reduced as various species declined or disappeared. In Lake Erie, which is shallow, and in the shallow bays of the deep lakes, oligotrophic species were replaced by mesotrophic species, primarily percids, which have successively increased and declined. All oligotrophic species are greatly reduced or extinct in lakes Ontario and Erie, and are in various stages of decline in lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior, from greatest to least, respectively. The percids appear to be near the end of their sequence of succession in lakes Erie, Ontario, and Huron (primarily Saginaw Bay) where only the yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) remains abundant. The yellow perch appears to be on the brink of decline in Lake Erie, which has been more severely influenced by water quality change than the other lakes.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗
USGS2026

When best intentions are not enough - A collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and an agricultural community

Rocky Mountain National Park is a Congressionally mandated Clean Air Act Class I Area, but years of research have documented evidence of biogeochemical and ecological change caused by atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. A coalition of government agencies—National Park Service, the Environmental Protection Agency Region 8, and the State of Colorado—developed the 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the park from the baseline in 2006 by 50% by 2032. Fifty-four percent of wet nitrogen deposition is ammonium, primarily sourced from industrial cattle and dairy operations east of the park. An Agriculture Subcommittee, meeting with regulatory and management agencies and scientists since 2006, has explored voluntary options to reduce ammonia emissions. Ammonia emissions are unregulated in the U.S. Despite sustained efforts, neither ammonium deposition nor total inorganic nitrogen deposition have declined at the rate determined to reach the targeted value by 2032. In fact, ammonia is increasing over the Front Range agricultural area. Wet nitrogen deposition in 2024 was 2.81 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , 0.61 kg N ha −1 yr −1 higher than targeted in the Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan. The collaborative approach between agricultural producers, regulatory entities, and resource managers is not working, but not for lack of effort by all parties. Cattle process nitrogen inefficiently, and while management practices can somewhat reduce the proportion of ammonia emitted from feedlots, with more than one million head of cattle east of Rocky Mountain National Park, large-scale reductions are unlikely. New programs to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (46% of wet nitrogen deposition) may reduce nitrogen deposition that is changing park ecosystems. Improved integration of crop and livestock agriculture and valuation of the ecosystem services and economy of Rocky Mountain National Park alongside agricultural value are topics for further discussion. Implications : Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to Rocky Mountain National Park has changed natural ecosystems. To protect its Clean Air Act Class I status a 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan agreed upon by state and federal agencies set a goal to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the Park by half by 2032. Industrial livestock operations are a large source of nitrogen; an Agriculture Subcommittee explored voluntary options to reduce emissions from cattle. Despite sustained efforts nitrogen deposition has not declined. Further reductions in industry and transportation emissions will be needed reduce nitrogen deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long-lived seabird supports need for eradication

Invasive species are one of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide, and the eradication of invasive species from islands is a highly efficient management strategy. Because eradication operations require large financial investments, uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts of both invasive species and their removal can impede the willingness of decision makers to invest in eradication. Such uncertainty is prevalent for long-lived species that display an inherent lag between life stages affected by invasive species and those used for population status assessments. Albatrosses are amongst the longest-living bird species and are threatened on land by invasive species and at sea by industrial fisheries. As in many seabird species, usually only a segment of the population (breeding adults) is used for status assessments, making it difficult to assess albatross population trends and the potential benefit of conservation action, such as the management of predatory invasive species. We used population monitoring and mark-recapture data to estimate the past population trajectory of the critically endangered Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena by accounting for unobservable birds at sea in an integrated population model. We then projected the future population trajectory of Tristan albatrosses for scenarios with or without predation by invasive house mice Mus musculus on their main breeding site, Gough Island. The adult breeding population remained stable between 2004 and 2021, but breeding success was low (31%) and our model indicated that the total population (including unobservable immature birds) decreased from a median estimate of 9,795 to 7,752 birds. Eradicating invasive mice leading to a two-fold increase in breeding success would result in a 1.8–7.6 times higher albatross population by 2050 (median estimate 10,352 individuals) than without this intervention. Low reproductive output for long-lived species may lead to a cryptic population decrease, which can be obscured from readily available counts of breeding pairs by changes in the population structure. Mouse eradication is necessary to halt the ongoing population decrease of the Tristan albatross, even if this decrease is not yet apparent in the breeding population size.

Gough Island↗