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Results for “Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Machine-learning models to map pH and redox conditions in groundwater in a layered aquifer system, Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, eastern USA

Study region The study was conducted in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, in the eastern USA. Study focus Groundwater pH and redox conditions are fundamental chemical characteristics controlling the distribution of many contaminants of concern for drinking water or the ecological health of receiving waters. In this study, pH and redox conditions were modeled and mapped in a complex, layered aquifer system. Machine-learning methods (boosted regression trees) were applied to data from 3000 to 5000 wells. Predicted pH and the probability of anoxic conditions, defined by three thresholds of dissolved oxygen (0.5, 1, and 2 mg/L), were mapped at the 1-km 2 scale for each of 10 regional aquifer layers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Maps depict the extent of acidic groundwater and oxic conditions in the shallow, unconfined surficial aquifer and in unconfined, recharge-proximal areas of underlying aquifers, in contrast to alkaline and anoxic groundwater elsewhere. Geographic patterns and influential predictors–including elevation, overlying confining-units thickness, and simulated groundwater age and flux–are consistent with prior understanding of the processes controlling pH and redox in the aquifer system. The model-based maps support robust estimates of aquifer proportions, either areal or volumetric, likely to contain groundwater of a specified quality or be vulnerable to specific pH- or redox-sensitive contaminants. The machine-learning methods were an effective tool to map groundwater quality at the regional scale.

New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia↗
USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗
USGS2023

Long-term mercury loading and trapping dynamics in a Western North America reservoir

Study Region The Carson River including Lahontan Reservoir in Northwestern Nevada, USA Study Focus The discovery, mining, and processing of silver and gold from the Comstock Lode in northwestern Nevada heavily contaminated the Carson River system with mercury (Hg). The river now contains some of the highest recorded water column and bed sediment Hg concentrations reported in peer-reviewed literature. Acute Hg contamination in river and reservoir bed sediment has led to elevated methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations across all trophic levels of Lahontan Reservoir, culminating in significant health risks to humans. Lahontan Reservoir, located downstream from the mills that processed Comstock ore, has served as a Hg trap since the completion of the dam in 1915. Starting in 1997 and extending through 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey has collected and analyzed hundreds of discrete water samples entering and exiting Lahontan Reservoir for unfiltered total Hg (uf.THg), thereby providing a first-of-its-kind opportunity for studying long-term Hg trapping efficiencies within a western North American reservoir. Continuous time series of uf.THg concentration and flux above and below the reservoir were estimated using the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season with the Kalman filtering (WRTDS-K) method employed with newly developed methods to account for non-natural (i.e., managed) hydrographs below a reservoir. New hydrological insights for the region An estimated 31,650 kg (34.89 US tons) of uf.THg entered Lahontan Reservoir during the 25 year period of analysis, accounting for approximately 0.5% of the total uf.THg estimated to have been released to the Carson River system [6.8 million kg (7500 US tons)] over a multi-decade mining boom. Moreover, approximately 92% of the estimated uf.THg entering Lahontan Reservoir was trapped. On an annual basis, however, trapping efficiencies range between 34% and 98%, and are closely related to the total annual discharge. Results also indicate that flow-normalized uf.THg concentrations and loads above and below the reservoir are trending down.

Nevada↗
USGS2020

Regional patterns in hydrologic response, a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis and implications for ecohydrology, Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area, USA

Study Region Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada and Utah Study Focus Spatial patterns of hydrologic response were examined for the Northwest Volcanic Aquifer Study Area (NVASA). The utility of established hydrograph-separation methods for assessing hydrologic response in permeable volcanic terranes was assessed and a new three-component metric for hydrograph analysis was developed. The new metric, which partitions streamflow into subcomponents defined by the timescales of hydrologic response (e.g., fast-runoff, intermediate-interflow and slow-baseflow), was used to gain a fundamental understanding of the regional hydrology, investigate sub-regional differences, influencing factors, and ecohydrological implications. New Hydrological Insights The combined effects of NVASA’s physiography, climate and geology create a strongly coupled surface-groundwater system that produces copious baseflow and limited quantities of runoff and interflow. Patterns of hydrologic response are influenced by the type and rate of precipitation and permeability of the underlying geology. Under variable precipitation conditions the hydrologic response of volcanic terranes with similar permeability and subsurface-storage capacity can be significantly different. From a water management and ecohydrology perspective, understanding regional patterns of hydrologic response and sub-regional differences is fundamental. Results indicate that minimum-flow methods provide the most conservative estimate of baseflow and may be the most robust for filtering out snowmelt bias in baseflow estimates. Baseflow contributes ∼75% of the perennial streamflow across the NVASA and represents a critical component of the regional water supply that provides critical cold-water habitat.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2025

Leveraging airborne imaging spectroscopy and multispectral satellite imagery to map glacial sediment plumes in Kachemak Bay, Alaska

Study Region Kachemak Bay is a fjord-type estuary in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Water quality and habitat characteristics are strongly influenced by freshwater and sediment input from multiple glacierized catchments. Study Focus We present a new method combining imaging spectroscopy from an airborne survey with Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery to map water surface turbidity originating from glacial runoff based on spectral abundance. We compare the spectral characteristics of turbid glacial water to clear water and generate a high resolution reference map of glacial turbidity in Kachemak Bay. This informs the subsequent analysis of a homogenized, Rayleigh corrected time series of Landsat and Sentinel-2 images and seasonal patterns of turbidity. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Our results provide the most comprehensive data set on water surface turbidity in Kachemak Bay to date and improve understanding of spatial and seasonal variability of glacial turbidity in a data sparse region. July and August have the largest plumes with median sizes around 150 km 2 "> 2 , or around a quarter of Kachemak Bay. Plume sizes typically decrease with decreasing glacier runoff in September and October. We show that imaging spectroscopy aids assessments of turbid water in glacial marine catchments across scales. Leveraging high resolution spectral information allows for water color analyses that are customized to local conditions and catchment characteristics as well as scalable to wider regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Water quality at Chaco Culture National Historical Park and the potential effects of hydrocarbon extraction

Study region Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CCNHP) is in the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico, U.S.A. Its only water supply is in Gallup Sandstone aquifer, stratigraphically surrounded by layers long targeted for oil and natural gas extraction. Study focus To assess groundwater flow direction, age, mixing between aquifers, and whether hydrocarbons extraction may affect water quality, we completed a geochemical groundwater sampling campaign. Groundwater at 11 sites was analyzed for major ions, hydrocarbon associated volatile organic carbon (VOC) compounds, noble gases, and the isotope systems δ 2 H, δ 18 O, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, δ 13 C, and 14 C. New hydrological insights for the region Results demonstrate that all sampled groundwaters are exceedingly old and geochemically evolved, with a median 14 C age of ∼41,000 years before present and a north flowing path. Three lines of evidence suggest mixing between aquifers through relatively impermeable shale units and mixing with hydrocarbons: 1) noble gases are fractionated likely through mixing with connate water expelled during hydrocarbon genesis; 2) several wells—including the park’s main supply well—contained trace amounts of hydrocarbon related VOC compounds; and 3) major ion analysis shows mixing trends between aquifers. We hypothesize that cross-aquifer mixing may be facilitated through the region’s numerous hydrocarbon related boreholes. Whether our findings are the result of oil and gas extraction or represent the natural state of the aquifers will require more research.

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

Study region Eastern and central Montana. Study focus Fish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period). New hydrological insights for the region Projected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

Study region The U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems. Study focus Groundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone. New hydrological insights for the region We find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Linking stream-reach nitrogen loads and groundwater “reachsheds” to inform wastewater-nitrogen management actions, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Study Region Cape Cod, Massachusetts, U.S.A. Study Focus Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) is a key factor in degrading groundwater and surface-water quality, particularly in coastal New England where onsite wastewater systems are prevalent. This study evaluated whether direct N-load measurements in streams on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, coupled with flow-path information from groundwater-flow models, can effectively identify potential land areas where nitrogen mitigation could substantially reduce loads to receiving waters. Nitrogen fluxes were measured along 63 stream reaches during winter and summer and paired with simulated groundwater recharge areas to identify and rank potential areas for reduction of nonpoint-source N inputs. New Hydrologic Insights for the Region Reach-scale nitrate-N loads ranged from −39.1–1182 kg-N/yr per 100 m of stream, indicating spatially variable groundwater inputs across seasons. “Reachsheds” — areas contributing groundwater recharge to specific stream reaches — were delineated using a regional groundwater-flow model. Strong correlations were found between observed N loads and land-use characteristics, especially the number of septic systems and total N inputs from the sum of considered sources. Observed N loads were moderately correlated with recharge area size and wastewater flow estimates. Correlating reach-specific groundwater N loads with land use and parcel-scale nitrogen-yield data identified reachsheds with the highest potential for N load reduction. This approach enables targeted implementation of restoration efforts to optimize nutrient management and support regional load reduction.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2022

Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California

Study Region We created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). Study Focus Understanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water management. Anthropogenic water demand has depleted groundwater aquifers worldwide, while future water shortages will likely affect land-use change, creating system feedbacks. Our novel participatory approach fused changes in land-use and associated water use from county-scale data to local water agencies’ estimates of total sustainable supply, scaling up local hydro-geologic knowledge from heterogeneous aquifers and diverse management approaches to a regional level. We assessed five stakeholder-driven scenarios with the same historic rates of urban and agricultural land-use change, but different water and land-use management, analyzing how management strategies altered both the spatial pattern of development and subsequent water sustainability from 2001 to 2061. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Transformative strategies using demand-side interventions that coupled water availability to land-use more effectively achieved long-term sustainability than adaptive strategies using supply-side interventions to increase water supplies. Limiting water withdrawals within SGMA regulated basins resulted in leakage of development into unregulated basins, increasing groundwater pumping there. Protecting ecosystems, farmlands, and recharge areas from development reduced leakage into undeveloped basins without negatively affecting water sustainability.

California↗
USGS2021

Manganese in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, eastern USA—Modeling regional occurrence with pH, redox, and machine learning

Study region : The study was conducted in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, eastern USA, an important water supply in a densely populated region. Study focus : Manganese (Mn), an emerging health concern and common nuisance contaminant in drinking water, is mapped and modeled using the XGBoost machine learning method, predictions of pH and redox conditions from previous models, and other explanatory variables that describe the groundwater flow system and surface characteristics. Methods to address the imbalanced occurrence of elevated and low Mn concentrations are compared and used to more accurately predict concentrations of interest for human health and drinking water quality. New hydrological insights for the region : Elevated Mn concentrations were more likely in shallow groundwater, close to recharge areas and in topographically low areas where soil or unsaturated processes influence groundwater quality. Predicted concentrations greater than the health threshold of 300 micrograms per liter extended across 17 % of the surficial aquifer area, but across <1% of the areas of underlying aquifers. pH and variables related to flow-system position and near-surface processes were more important predictors than the probability of low dissolved oxygen (DO). Mapped variable influence (SHAP values) showed that both pH and DO variables were related to hydrogeologic conditions. Class weights, which improved the predictive ability for elevated Mn without altering the data, was the preferred method to address class imbalance.

Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pe↗
USGS2023

Measuring basin-scale aquifer storage change and mapping specific yield in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, with repeat microgravity data

Study Region The groundwater basin underlying the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. Study Focus The study focuses on changes in groundwater storage and how those changes relate to groundwater-level changes. Groundwater storage change was measured using repeat microgravity at 35 stations from 2016 to 2021. Usually, storage is monitored by converting groundwater-level changes to storage changes using the aquifer storage coefficient, a difficult property to measure. With gravity, storage change can be measured directly. The storage coefficient, or specific yield in an unconfined aquifer, was estimated using the gravity method at individual sites, and a map created showing how this property varies over the region. New Hydrological Insights for the Region For the first time, a map of specific yield was produced based on interpolated maps of gravity-derived storage change and groundwater-level change, allowing inference of this property over a broad region even without collocated monitoring wells and gravity stations. Gravity data indicate aquifer drawdown and recovery mainly occurs in the central part of the basin where pumping is greatest. This spatial distribution is not captured by the more widely spaced monitoring well network. Because the aquifer is recovering from historically greater-magnitude pumping, net-neutral storage change (inflow=outflow) occurs when pumping from the central part of the well field is about 1.54 × 10 7 cubic meters (12,500 acre-feet) per year.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Geospatial tools effectively estimate nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflow at ungauged and intermittently gauged locations in Ohio

Study region The state of Ohio in the United States, a humid, continental climate. Study focus The estimation of nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflows as an alternative means of establishing the relative magnitudes of streamflows associated with hydrologic and water-quality observations. New hydrological insights for the region Several methods for estimating nonexceedance probabilities of daily mean streamflows are explored, including single-index methodologies (nearest-neighboring index) and geospatial tools (kriging and topological kriging). These methods were evaluated by conducting leave-one-out cross-validations based on analyses of nearly 7 years of daily streamflow data from 79 unregulated streamgages in Ohio and neighboring states. The pooled, ordinary kriging model, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe performance of 0.87, was superior to the single-site index methods, though there was some bias in the tails of the probability distribution. Incorporating network structure through topological kriging did not improve performance. The pooled, ordinary kriging model was applied to 118 locations without systematic streamgaging across Ohio where instantaneous streamflow measurements had been made concurrent with water-quality sampling on at least 3 separate days. Spearman rank correlations between estimated nonexceedance probabilities and measured streamflows were high, with a median value of 0.76. In consideration of application, the degree of regulation in a set of sample sites helped to specify the streamgages required to implement kriging approaches successfully.

Ohio↗
USGS2024

Improving crop-specific groundwater use estimation in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain: Implications for integrated remote sensing and machine learning approaches in data-scarce regions

Study region The Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) in the United States (US). Study focus Understanding local-scale groundwater use, a critical component of the water budget, is necessary for implementing sustainable water management practices. The MAP is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the US and extracts more than 11 km 3 /year for irrigation activities. Consequently, groundwater-level declines in the MAP region pose a substantial challenge to water sustainability, and hence, we need reliable groundwater pumping monitoring solutions to manage this resource appropriately. New hydrological insights for the region We incorporate remote sensing datasets and machine learning to improve an existing lookup table-based model of groundwater use previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Here, we employ Distributed Random Forests, an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict annual and monthly groundwater use (2014–2020) throughout this region at 1-km resolution, using pumping data from existing flowmeters in the Mississippi Delta. Our model compares favorably with the existing USGS model, with higher R 2 (0.51 compared to 0.42 in the previous model), and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE)— 0.14 m and 0.09 m, respectively in our model, compared to 0.15 m and 0.1 m in the previous model. Therefore, this work advances our ability to predict groundwater use in regions with scarce or limited in-situ groundwater withdrawal data availability.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies↗
USGS2025

Hydrologic response of groundwater and streamflow to natural and anthropogenic drivers of change in headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) conditions

Study region: Headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin (UCOL), USA Study focus: Surface-water and groundwater numerical models incorporating water-use information were used to investigate changes in climate, water use, and simulated hydrologic responses of snow processes, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and streamflow during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) periods in the headwater subregions of the upper Colorado River basin. New hydrologic insights for the region: Decreases in average streamflow between wet and drought periods ranged from 20 % in the Colorado River headwaters subregion to 23 % in the Gunnison River headwaters subregion. Like streamflow, average surface runoff was statistically less during the drought than the wet period, with decreases from 24–31 % in the headwaters. On a volume basis, runoff decreases were greater than streamflow decreases in both the Colorado River and Gunnison River headwaters. Although the amount of water-year groundwater discharge to streams remained nearly the same between the wet and drought periods, groundwater as a percentage of streamflow increased between the wet and drought periods, highlighting the importance of groundwater in sustaining streamflow during drought conditions. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that snowmelt-only models were better than the best precipitation and temperature models at explaining streamflow variability from all headwater subregions for both the wet and drought periods.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Quantifying the effects of wildfire on changes in soil properties by surface burning of soils from the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory

Study region This study used intact soil cores collected at the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory near Boulder, Colorado, USA to explore fire impacts on soil properties. Study focus Three soil scenarios were considered: unburned control soils, and low- and high-temperature burned soils. We explored simulated fire impacts on field-saturated hydraulic conductivity, dry bulk density, total organic carbon, and infiltration processes during rainfall simulations. New hydrological insights for the region Soils burned to high temperatures became more homogeneous with depth with respect to total organic carbon and bulk density, suggesting reductions in near-surface porosity. Organic matter decreased significantly with increasing soil temperature. Tension infiltration experiments suggested a decrease in infiltration rates from unburned to low-temperature burned soils, and an increase in infiltration rates in high-temperature burned soils. Non-parametric statistical tests showed that field-saturated hydraulic conductivity similarly decreased from unburned to low-temperature burned soils, and then increased with high-temperature burned soils. We interpret these changes result from the combustion of surface and near-surface organic materials, enabling water to infiltrate directly into soil instead of being stored in the litter and duff layer at the surface. Together, these results indicate that fire-induced changes in soil properties from low temperatures were not as drastic as high temperatures, but that reductions in surface soil water repellency in high temperatures may increase infiltration relative to low temperatures.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Snow simulations predict future changes in rain-on-snow events across the upper Gallatin River watershed, a Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem headwater system

Study region: The upper Gallatin River watershed, an alpine headwater system in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, in Wyoming and Montana. Study focus: As global and regional air temperatures rise, mountain headwaters across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are projected to see more precipitation falling as rain. While the hydrologic effects of this snow-to-rain transition depends on a variety of factors, it can lead to an increased occurrence of rain-on-snow (RoS) events. To investigate these changes, we used high-resolution (30 m) SnowModel simulations of the upper Gallatin River watershed. Simulations were run for 2001-2013 using two scenarios: (1) historical meteorology as control and (2) pseudo global warming (PGW) where control air temperature and precipitation conditions were perturbed to represent mean end-of-century conditions under a high-emissions scenario. New hydrological insights for the region: SnowModel outputs show that changes in PGW precipitation and snow accumulation varied with elevation. Warmer air temperatures at low elevations (< 2,500 m) led to less snow accumulation and less precipitation falling as snow. Colder baseline air temperatures for elevations above 2,500 meters (m) resulted in minor reductions in winter snowfall fraction. For PGW simulations, spring (April-June) months were rainier, and elevations above 2,500 m experienced more RoS events. Snowpacks between 2,500-3,100 m generated more snowmelt during RoS events, which was reflected in the watershed average. More high-intensity melt events can affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and the accuracy of streamflow forecasts across the region.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Changes in streamflow seasonality associated with hydroclimatic variability in the north-central United States among three discrete temporal periods, 1946–2020

Study region North-central United States Study focus This study uses circular statistics to characterize the seasonal properties of annual maximum (AMS) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) streamflow time series for 841 and 623 selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, respectively, without regulation or substantial diversion among common 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020). A subset of AMS time series with detected change points (abrupt changes) in the median and (or) scale are analyzed on either side of the change point to evaluate changes in their circular statistics. New hydrologic insights for the region In the 50-year trend period, five regions share common mean flood timing in the AMS and POT partial duration series. Changes from asymmetric distributions to reflective symmetric distributions are detected particularly among the 50- and 30-year trend periods in the northernmost States of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. For the subset of streamgages with abrupt change points in the AMS, regional patterns of changes in seasonality are detected between the period of records before and after the change point. These findings can inform decisions related to the AMS used for flood frequency and potential mixed population analyses and flood control operations that may be affected by changes in when seasonal events occur, how long seasonal events last, and the long-term variability in the intensity and frequency of seasonal events.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗