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Atmospheric regime of dust and salt through 75,000 years of Taylor Dome ice core: Refinement by measurement of major, minor, and trace metal suites

Measurement of absolute and relative amounts of dust and salt deposited in the polar ice record is central to several fields of study, including nutrient delivery, atmospheric deposition of trace elements, past wind strengths, dust provenance, and other aspects of climate and geochemical history. We present a method intended to give a more accurate picture than has been possible before of the total amounts and relative proportions of the dust and salt deposited by the atmosphere into polar ice. It also permits us to distinguish different compositional types of dust in the ice. The method is based on precise measurement of a suite of several metals whose proportions contrast strongly between dust and salt and vary substantially between dust types. We apply the method to a small suite of ice samples from the Taylor Dome core in coastal West Antarctica. In full glacial times, when total impurities were high and dust dominated over salt, wind strength in the West Antarctic region was apparently high, and extensive sea-ice cover prevented incorporation of salt into the atmospheric load. At the termination of the glacial period, increased salt in the dust-salt mixture indicates that sea ice diminished, but wind strength continued high, and unchanged dust composition indicates unchanged source areas. At about 10,000-11,000 y.B.P., sea-ice cover appears to have briefly returned to glacial conditions, but wind conditions remained in the milder postglacial condition. Soon after, sea ice retreated, and an abrupt change in dust composition indicates changed source materials or terranes. If extended by analysis of more samples from more sites, such information on salt and dust could provide firm constraints on past wind strengths, extent of sea-ice cover, deposition fluxes of salt and dust, and changing continental source areas of dust, for both polar regions of the Earth.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Arctic transitions in the Land - Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions

This paper briefly reviews the background, objectives, and results of the Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS) Project to date and provides thoughts on future directions. The key goal of the ATLAS Project is to improve understanding of controls over spatial and temporal variability of terrestrial processes in the Arctic that have potential consequences for the climate system, i.e., processes that affect the exchange of water and energy with the atmosphere, the exchange of radiatively active gases with the atmosphere, and the delivery of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. Three important conclusions have emerged from research associated with the ATLAS Project. First, associated with the observation that the Alaskan Arctic has warmed significantly in the last 30 years, permafrost is warming, shrubs are expanding, and there has been a temporary release of carbon dioxide from tundra soils. Second, the winter is a more important period of biological activity than previously appreciated. Biotic processes, including shrub expansion and decomposition, affect snow structure and accumulation and affect the annual carbon budget of tundra ecosystems. Third, observed vegetation changes can have a significant positive feedback to regional warming. These vegetation effects are, however, less strong than those exerted by land-ocean heating contrasts and the topographic constraints on air mass movements. The papers of this special section provide additional insights related to these conclusions and to the overall goal of ATLAS.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Dating the Vostok ice core record by importing the Devils Hole chronology

The development of an accurate chronology for the Vostok record continues to be an open research question because these invaluable ice cores cannot be dated directly. Depth-to-age relationships have been developed using many different approaches, but published age estimates are inconsistent, even for major paleoclimatic events. We have developed a chronology for the Vostok deuterium paleotemperature record using a simple and objective algorithm to transfer ages of major paleoclimatic events from the radiometrically dated 500,000-year δ 18 O-paleotemperature record from Devils Hole, Nevada. The method is based only on a strong inference that major shifts in paleotemperature recorded at both locations occurred synchronously, consistent with an atmospheric teleconnection. The derived depth-to-age relationship conforms with the physics of ice compaction, and internally produces ages for climatic events 5.4 and 11.24 which are consistent with the externally assigned ages that the Vostok team needed to assume in order to derive their most recent chronology, GT4. Indeed, the resulting V-DH chronology is highly correlated with GT4 because of the unexpected correspondence even in the timing of second-order climatic events that were not constrained by the algorithm. Furthermore, the algorithm developed herein is not specific to this problem; rather, the procedure can be used whenever two paleoclimate records are proxies for the same physical phenomenon, and paleoclimatic conditions forcing the two records can be considered to have occurred contemporaneously. The ability of the algorithm to date the East Antarctic Dome Fuji core is also demonstrated.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events

We model the response of the climate system during Heinrich event 2 (H2) by employing an atmospheric general circulation model, using boundary conditions based on the concept of a “canonical” Heinrich event. The canonical event is initialized with a full-height Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs), followed by lowering of the LIS, then warming of North Atlantic SSTs. Our modeled temperature and wind fields exhibit spatially variable responses over the Northern Hemisphere at each stage of the H2 event. In some regions the climatic responses are additive, whereas in other regions they cancel or are of opposite sign, suggesting that Heinrich event climatic variations may have left complex signatures in geologic records. We find variations in the tropical water balance and the mass balance of ice sheets, and implications for variations in terrestrial methane production from the contraction of northern permafrost regions and the expansion of tropical wetlands.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Modeling and measuring the nocturnal drainage flow in a high-elevation, subalpine forest with complex terrain

The nocturnal drainage flow of air causes significant uncertainty in ecosystem CO 2 , H 2 O, and energy budgets determined with the eddy covariance measurement approach. In this study, we examined the magnitude, nature, and dynamics of the nocturnal drainage flow in a subalpine forest ecosystem with complex terrain. We used an experimental approach involving four towers, each with vertical profiling of wind speed to measure the magnitude of drainage flows and dynamics in their occurrence. We developed an analytical drainage flow model, constrained with measurements of canopy structure and SF 6 diffusion, to help us interpret the tower profile results. Model predictions were in good agreement with observed profiles of wind speed, leaf area density, and wind drag coefficient. Using theory, we showed that this one‐dimensional model is reduced to the widely used exponential wind profile model under conditions where vertical leaf area density and drag coefficient are uniformly distributed. We used the model for stability analysis, which predicted the presence of a very stable layer near the height of maximum leaf area density. This stable layer acts as a flow impediment, minimizing vertical dispersion between the subcanopy air space and the atmosphere above the canopy. The prediction is consistent with the results of SF 6 diffusion observations that showed minimal vertical dispersion of nighttime, subcanopy drainage flows. The stable within‐canopy air layer coincided with the height of maximum wake‐to‐shear production ratio. We concluded that nighttime drainage flows are restricted to a relatively shallow layer of air beneath the canopy, with little vertical mixing across a relatively long horizontal fetch. Insight into the horizontal and vertical structure of the drainage flow is crucial for understanding the magnitude and dynamics of the mean advective CO 2 flux that becomes significant during stable nighttime conditions and are typically missed during measurement of the turbulent CO 2 flux. The model and interpretation provided in this study should lead to research strategies for the measurement of these advective fluxes and their inclusion in the overall mass balance for CO 2 at this site with complex terrain.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Early evolution of a stratospheric volcanic eruption cloud as observed with TOMS and AVHRR

This paper is a detailed study of remote sensing data from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite detectors, of the 1982 eruption of El Chichón, Mexico. The volcanic cloud/atmosphere interactions in the first four days of this eruption were investigated by combining ultraviolet retrievals to estimate the mass of sulfur dioxide in the volcanic cloud [ Krueger et al. , 1995] with thermal infrared retrievals of the size, optical depth, and mass of fine-grained (1–10 μm radius) volcanic ash [ Wen and Rose , 1994]. Our study provides the first direct evidence of gravitational separation of ash from a stratospheric, gas-rich, plinian eruption column and documents the marked differences in residence times of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide in volcanic clouds. The eruption column reached as high as 32 km [ Carey and Sigurdsson , 1986] and was injected into an atmosphere with a strong wind shear, which allowed for an observation of the separation of sulfur dioxide and volcanic ash. The upper, more sulfur dioxide-rich part of the cloud was transported to the west in the stratosphere, while the fine-grained ash traveled to the south in the troposphere. The mass of sulfur dioxide released was estimated at 7.1 × 10 9 kg with the mass decreasing by approximately 4% 1 day after the peak. The mass of fine-grained volcanic ash detected was estimated at 6.5 × 10 9 kg, amounting to about 0.7% of the estimated mass of the ash which fell out in the mapped ash blanket close to the volcano. Over the following days, 98% of this remaining fine ash was removed from the volcanic cloud, and the effective radius of ash in the volcanic cloud decreased from about 8 μm to about 4 μm.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Origin of Bermuda's clay-rich Quaternary paleosols and their paleoclimatic significance

Red clayey paleosols that are chiefly the product of aerosolic dust deposition are interbedded in the Quaternary carbonate formations of the Bermuda oceanic island system. These paleosols provide a basis for reconstructing Quaternary atmospheric circulation patterns in the northwestern Atlantic. Geochemical analyses were performed on representative paleosol samples to identify their parent dust source. Fine-grained fractions were analyzed by energy-dispersive X ray fluorescence to determine trace element (Zr, Y, La, Ti, and Nb) concentrations and to derive geochemical signatures based on immobile element ratios. These ratios were compared with geochemical signatures determined for three possible sources of airborne dust: (1) Great Plains loess, (2) Mississippi River Valley loess, and (3) Saharan dust. The Zr/Y and Zr/La ratios provided the clearest distinction between the hypothesized dust sources. The low ratios in the paleosol B horizons most closely resemble Saharan dust in the <2-μm size class fraction. Contributions from the two North American loessial source areas could not be clearly detected. Thus Bermuda paleosols have a predominantly Saharan aerosolic dust signature. Saharan dust deposition on Bermuda during successive Quaternary glacial periods is consistent with patterns of general circulation models, which indicate that during glacial maxima the northeast summer trade winds were stronger than at present and reached latitudes higher than 30°N despite lower-than-present sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Winter and early spring CO2 efflux from tundra communities of northern Alaska

Carbon dioxide concentrations through snow were measured in different arctic tundra communities on the North Slope of Alaska during winter and early spring of 1996. Subnivean CO 2 concentrations were always higher than atmospheric CO 2 . A steady state diffusion model was used to generate conservative estimates of CO 2 flux to the atmosphere. The magnitude of CO 2 efflux differed with tundra community type, and rates of carbon release increased from March to May. Winter CO 2 efflux was highest in riparian and snow bed communities and lowest in dry heath, upland tussock, and wet sedge communities. Snow generally accrues earlier in winter and is deeper in riparian and snow bed communities compared with other tundra communities, which are typically windswept and do not accumulate much snow during the winter. These results support the hypothesis that early and deep snow accumulation may insulate microbial populations from very cold temperatures, allowing sites with earlier snow cover to sustain higher levels of activity throughout winter compared to communities that have later developing snow cover. Extrapolating our estimates of CO 2 efflux to the entire snow-covered season indicates that total carbon flux during winter in the Arctic is 13–109 kg CO 2 -C ha −1 , depending on the vegetation community type. Wintertime CO 2 flux is a potentially important, yet largely overlooked, part of the annual carbon cycle of tundra, and carbon release during winter should be accounted for in estimates of annual carbon balance in arctic ecosystems.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange: Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil interfacial layer, and source/sink products

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere tace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulationshowed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steadystate chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Aviation response to a widely dispersed volcanic ash and gas cloud from the August 2008 eruption of Kasatochi, Alaska, USA

The extensive volcanic cloud from Kasatochi's 2008 eruption caused widespread disruptions to aviation operations along Pacific oceanic, Canadian, and U.S. air routes. Based on aviation hazard warnings issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, the Federal Aviation Administration, and Meteorological Service of Canada, air carriers largely avoided the volcanic cloud over a 5 day period by route modifications and flight cancellations. Comparison of time coincident GOES thermal infrared (TIR) data for ash detection with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) ultraviolet data for SO 2 detection shows congruent areas of ash and gas in the volcanic cloud in the 2 days following onset of ash production. After about 2.5 days, the area of SO 2 detected by OMI was more extensive than the area of ash indicated by TIR data, indicating significant ash depletion by fall out had occurred. Pilot reports of visible haze at cruise altitudes over Canada and the northern United States suggested that SO 2 gas had converted to sulfate aerosols. Uncertain about the hazard potential of the aging cloud, airlines coped by flying over, under, or around the observed haze layer. Samples from a nondamaging aircraft encounter with Kasatochi's nearly 3 day old cloud contained volcanic silicate particles, confirming that some fine ash is present in predominantly gas clouds. The aircraft's exposure to ash was insufficient to cause engine damage; however, slightly damaging encounters with volcanic clouds from eruptions of Reventador in 2002 and Hekla in 2000 indicate the possibility of lingering hazards associated with old and/or diffuse volcanic clouds.

Alaska

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm ( R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated ( R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands ( R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Alaska

The role of dust storms in total atmospheric particle concentrations at two sites in the western U.S.

Mineral aerosols are produced during the erosion of soils by wind and are a common source of particles (dust) in arid and semiarid regions. The size of these particles varies widely from less than 2 µm to larger particles that can exceed 50 µm in diameter. In this study, we present two continuous records of total suspended particle (TSP) concentrations at sites in Mesa Verde and Canyonlands National Parks in Colorado and Utah, USA, respectively, and compare those values to measurements of fine and coarse particle concentrations made from nearby samplers. Average annual concentrations of TSP at Mesa Verde were 90 µg m−3 in 2011 and at Canyonlands were 171 µg m −3 in 2009, 113 µg m −3 in 2010, and 134 µg m −3 in 2011. In comparison, annual concentrations of fine (diameter of 2.5 µm and below) and coarse (2.5–10 µm diameter) particles at these sites were below 10 µg m −3 in all years. The high concentrations of TSP appear to be the result of regional dust storms with elevated concentrations of particles greater than 10 µm in diameter. These conditions regularly occur from spring through fall with 2 week mean TSP periodically in excess of 200 µg m −3 . Measurement of particles on filters indicates that the median particle size varies between approximately 10 µm in winter and 40 µm during the spring. These persistently elevated concentrations of large particles indicate that regional dust emission as dust storms and events are important determinants of air quality in this region.

Colorado;Utah

Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily temperatures by 1??C. Overall, sensible heat flux differences between the circa 2001 and circa 1973 landscapes result in a 1 W m -2 increase in domain-wide sensible heating, and a similar order of magnitude decrease in latent heating, highlighting the importance of surface repartitioning in establishing near-surface temperature trends. In part 2 of this study, we address the role of the surface budget changes on the mesoscale dynamics/thermodynamics, in context of the large-scale environment. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

The variability of California summertime marine stratus: impacts on surface air temperatures

This study investigates the variability of clouds, primarily marine stratus clouds, and how they are associated with surface temperature anomalies over California, especially along the coastal margin. We focus on the summer months of June to September when marine stratus are the dominant cloud type. Data used include satellite cloud reflectivity (cloud albedo) measurements, hourly surface observations of cloud cover and air temperature at coastal airports, and observed values of daily surface temperature at stations throughout California and Nevada. Much of the anomalous variability of summer clouds is organized over regional patterns that affect considerable portions of the coast, often extend hundreds of kilometers to the west and southwest over the North Pacific, and are bounded to the east by coastal mountains. The occurrence of marine stratus is positively correlated with both the strength and height of the thermal inversion that caps the marine boundary layer, with inversion base height being a key factor in determining their inland penetration. Cloud cover is strongly associated with surface temperature variations. In general, increased presence of cloud (higher cloud albedo) produces cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Summer daytime temperature fluctuations associated with cloud cover variations typically exceed 1°C. The inversion-cloud albedo-temperature associations that occur at daily timescales are also found at seasonal timescales.

California

Late 20th century increase in South Pole snow accumulation

A compilation of the 37-year history of net accumulation at the South Pole [ Mosley-Thompson et al ., 1995] suggests an increase in net annual accumulation since 1965. This record is sporadic and its quality is compromised by spatially restricted observations and nonsystematic measurement procedures. Results from a new, spatially extensive network of 236 accumulation poles document that the current 5-year (1992–1997) average annual net accumulation at the South Pole is 84.5 ± 8.9 mm water equivalent (w.e.). This accumulation rate reflects a 30% increase since the 1960s when the best, although not optimal, records indicate that it was 65 mm w.e. Identification of two prominent beta radioactivity horizons (1954/1955 and 1964/1965) in six firn cores confirms an increase in accumulation since 1965. Viewed from a longer perspective of accumulation provided by ice cores and a snow mine study, the net accumulation of the 30-year period, 1965–1994, is the highest 30-year average of this millennium. Limited data suggest this recent accumulation increase extends beyond the South Pole region and may be characteristic of the high East Antarctic Plateau. Enhanced accumulation over the polar ice sheets has been identified as a potential early indicator of warmer sea surface temperatures and may offset a portion of the current rise in global sea level.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Precipitation structure in the Sierra Nevada of California during winter

Influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon winter-time (November-April) precipitation in the Sierra Nevada are investigated. Precipitation events in the Sierra Nevada region occur mostly during wintertime, irrespective of station location (leeside or windside) and elevation. Most precipitation episodes in the region are associated with moist southwesterly winds (coming from the southwest direction) and also tend to occur when the 700-mbar temperature at the upwind direction is close to −2°C. This favored wind direction and temperature signify the importance of both moisture transport and orographic lifting in augmenting precipitation in the region. By utilizing the observed dependency of the precipitation upon the upper air conditions, a linear model is formulated to quantify the precipitation observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model increases with timescale of aggregation, reaching more than 50% variance explained at an aggregation period of 5–7 days. This indicates that upstream air moisture transport can be used to estimate the precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres