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Predicting what helminth parasites a fish species should have using Parasite Co-occurrence Modeler (PaCo)

Fish pathologists are often interested in which parasites would likely be present in a particular host. Parasite Co-occurrence Modeler (PaCo) is a tool for identifying a list of parasites known from fish species that are similar ecologically, phylogenetically, and geographically to the host of interest. PaCo uses data from FishBase (maximum length, growth rate, life span, age at maturity, trophic level, phylogeny, and biogeography) to estimate compatibility between a target host and parasite species–genera from the major helminth groups (Acanthocephala, Cestoda, Monogenea, Nematoda, and Trematoda). Users can include any combination of host attributes in a model. These unique features make PaCo an innovative tool for addressing both theoretical and applied questions in parasitology. In addition to predicting the occurrence of parasites, PaCo can be used to investigate how host characteristics shape parasite communities. To test the performance of the PaCo algorithm, we created 12,400 parasite lists by applying any possible combination of model parameters (248) to 50 fish hosts. We then measured the relative importance of each parameter by assessing their frequency in the best models for each host. Host phylogeny and host geography were identified as the most important factors, with both present in 88% of the best models. Habitat (64%) was identified in more than half of the best models. Among ecological parameters, trophic level (41%) was the most relevant while life span (34%), growth rate (32%), maximum length (28%), and age at maturity (20%) were less commonly linked to best models. PaCo is free to use at www.purl.oclc.org/fishpest .

Journal of Parasitology

Genetic comparison of lake sturgeon populations: Differentiation based on allelic frequencies at seven microsatellite loci

The lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) has recently become a high priority for restoration management because of the near extinction of the species from many areas of North America. The identification of the level of population differentiation that naturally exists among lake sturgeon populations will be useful in the development of management plans to conserve and restore diversity, and in the choice of donor populations to use for re-introduction. Genetic variation among and within 210 lake sturgeon collected from seven locations (St. Lawrence River, Des Prairies River (tributary to the St. Lawrence River), Mattagami River (Hudson Bay drainage), Menominee River (Lake Michigan drainage), Wolf River (Lake Michigan drainage), Niagara River, and Lake Erie) was examined based on allelic variation at seven microsatellite loci (four disomic and three putative tetrasomic). High levels of variability were detected at these loci. Analyses revealed an average of 8.6 alleles per locus (range 5 to 12 alleles per locus) and heterozygosity values at the four disomic loci ranging from 0.46 to 0.66. Multivariate factor analysis of Nei's genetic distance values produced three distinct population groups that were organized by geography: 1) Mattagami (northern Quebec), 2) Menominee/ Wolf (Lake Michigan - Wisconsin), and 3) St. Lawrence/ Des Prairies/ Niagara/ Erie (lower Great Lakes). Differences based on G-tests summed over all loci occurred between all possible paired comparisons of the collections (P < 0.01). These analyses indicated that lake sturgeon populations are differentiated within the Great Lakes basin. Managers of this species will need to identify individual populations in their jurisdictions and provide separate consideration for their conservation and rehabilitation.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Stopover habitats of spring migrating surf scoters in southeast Alaska

Habitat conditions and nutrient reserve levels during spring migration have been suggested as important factors affecting population declines in waterfowl, emphasizing the need to identify key sites used during spring and understand habitat features and resource availability at stopover sites. We used satellite telemetry to identify stopover sites used by surf scoters migrating through southeast Alaska during spring. We then contrasted habitat features of these sites to those of random sites to determine habitat attributes corresponding to use by migrating scoters. We identified 14 stopover sites based on use by satellite tagged surf scoters from several wintering sites. We identified Lynn Canal as a particularly important stopover site for surf scoters originating throughout the Pacific winter range; approximately half of tagged coastally migrating surf scoters used this site, many for extended periods. Stopover sites were farther from the mainland coast and closer to herring spawn sites than random sites, whereas physical shoreline habitat attributes were generally poor predictors of site use. The geography and resource availability within southeast Alaska provides unique and potentially critical stopover habitat for spring migrating surf scoters. Our work identifies specific sites and habitat resources that deserve conservation and management consideration. Aggregations of birds are vulnerable to human activity impacts such as contaminant spills and resource management decisions. This information is of value to agencies and organizations responsible for emergency response planning, herring fisheries management, and bird and ecosystem conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management

The effects of geography, habitat, and humans on the ecology and demography of the Gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) in the southern Lake Wales Ridge region of Florida

A 35-year (1967–2002) demographic study was conducted on the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) from two different habitats on Archbold Biological Station located on the southern end of the Lake Wales Ridge in south-central Florida. We found geographic, habitat, and human-mediated effects on several aspects of its biology. Our findings underscore the necessity of long-term demographic data to more accurately answer ecological questions concerning long-lived species, such as how the gopher tortoise detectably might be affected by habitat quality and human activities.

Florida

U.S. Geological Survey spatial data access

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has done a progress review on improving access to its spatial data holdings over the Web. The USGS EROS Data Center has created three major Web-based interfaces to deliver spatial data to the general public; they are Earth Explorer, the Seamless Data Distribution System (SDDS), and the USGS Web Mapping Portal. Lessons were learned in developing these systems, and various resources were needed for their implementation. The USGS serves as a fact-finding agency in the U.S. Government that collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific information about natural resource conditions and issues. To carry out its mission, the USGS has created and managed spatial data since its inception. Originally relying on paper maps, the USGS now uses advanced technology to produce digital representations of the Earth’s features. The spatial products of the USGS include both source and derivative data. Derivative datasets include Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQ), Digital Elevation Models, Digital Line Graphs, land-cover Digital Raster Graphics, and the seamless National Elevation Dataset. These products, created with automated processes, use aerial photographs, satellite images, or other cartographic information such as scanned paper maps as source data. With Earth Explorer, users can search multiple inventories through metadata queries and can browse satellite and DOQ imagery. They can place orders and make payment through secure credit card transactions. Some USGS spatial data can be accessed with SDDS. The SDDS uses an ArcIMS map service interface to identify the user’s areas of interest and determine the output format; it allows the user to either download the actual spatial data directly for small areas or place orders for larger areas to be delivered on media. The USGS Web Mapping Portal provides views of national and international datasets through an ArcIMS map service interface. In addition, the map portal posts news about new map services available from the USGS, many simultaneously published on the Environmental Systems Research Institute Geography Network. These three information systems use new software tools and expanded hardware to meet the requirements of the users. The systems are designed to handle the required workload and are relatively easy to enhance and maintain. The software tools give users a high level of functionality and help the system conform to industry standards. The hardware and software architecture is designed to handle the large amounts of spatial data and Internet traffic required by the information systems. Last, customer support was needed to answer questions, monitor e-mail, and report customer problems.

Journal of Geospatial Engineering

Reports and maps of the Military Geology Unit, 1942-1975

Included here are reports and maps which were prepared in the Military Geology Unit of the U. S. Geological Survey from 1942 through 1975. In addition to the references prepared primarily for military use and listed here, more than 200 reports of more general geologic interest were prepared for publication as Survey bulletins and professional papers and in outside journals. These reports are listed in "Publications of the Geological Survey" and other bibliographies. Military Geology reports generally include basic subjects such as rock types, soils, water resources, landforms and vegetation, as well as interpretive subjects such as suitability of terrain for cross-country movement and for construction of roads and airfields in areas throughout the world. Reports on specific areas range from generalized texts with small scab maps derived from published sources to detailed texts with large-scale maps commonly based on photo-interpretation and, especially for Alaska and western Pacific islands, involving field mapping. Other reports treat topics of interest in military geology without reference to specific areas. A number of reports covering the moon include the first photogeologic map of the near side. Authors are cited for some kinds of reports; however, many intelligence reports were published anonymously. Most of the reports were prepared by teams made up mainly of geologists but commonly including soils scientists, botanists, climatologists and geographers. Nearly all the soil scientists and climatologists were members of the World Soil Geography Unit, Soil Survey, Soil Conservation Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture. Manuscripts from this Unit were passed through a common review and other processing, as were the manuscripts originating in the Military Geology office, to be issued under the aegis of the latter. In some instances where it has not been possible to list all authors, names of project supervisors are given. File copies of many of the Military Geology reports prepared since 1975 are kept in the Special Geologic Studies Group, U.S. Geological Survey, National Center, Reston, and may be examined there by appropriately cleared persons. Additionally, copies of many of the unclassified studies are in the U.S. Geological Survey Library. Some of the older reports are in the files of the Terrain Analysis Center, Fort Belvoir, Virginia, and other offices within the Corps of Engineers. Most of the reports are out of print and many of the other studies are no longer available.

Open-File Report

Tracking the desert's edge with a Pleistocene relict

In addition to the Sky Islands of the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico, a series of 900–1200 m desert peaks surrounded by arid lowlands support temperate affiliated species at their summits. The presence of disjunct long-lived plant taxa on under-explored desert mountains, especially Isla Tiburón at 29° latitude in the Gulf of California, suggests a more southerly extent of Ice Age woodlands than previously understood. The phylogeography of the desert edge species Canotia holacantha (Celastraceae) was investigated to test the hypothesis that insular desert peak populations represent remnants of Pleistocene woodlands rather than recent dispersal events. Sequences of four chloroplast DNA regions totaling 2032 bp were amplified from 74 individuals of 14 populations across the entire range of C. holacantha as well as nine individuals that represented the other two species in its clade ( C. wendtii and Acanthothamnus aphyllus ) and two outgroups. Results suggest that a Canotia common ancestor occurred on the landscape, which underwent a population contraction ca. 15 kya. The Isla Tiburón C. holacantha population and the Chihuahuan Desert microendemic C. wendtii have the greatest genetic differentiation, are sister to one another, and basal to all other Canotia populations. Three haplotypes within C. holacantha were recovered, which correspond to regional geography and thus identified as the Arizona, Sonora, and Tiburón haplotypes, within which Acanthothamnus aphyllus is nested rather than as a sister genus. These results indicate a once broad distribution of Canotia / Acanthothamnus when the current peripheral desert ecotone habitat was more widespread during the Pleistocene, now present in relict populations on the fringes of the southern desert, in the Chihuahuan Desert, with scattered populations on desert peaks, and a common or abundant distribution at the northern boundary of the Sonoran Desert. These results suggest Canotia has tracked the shift of the desert's edge both in latitude and elevation since the end of the last Ice Age.

Journal of Arid Environments

Comparing ecoregional classifications for natural areas management in the Klamath Region, USA

We compared three existing ecoregional classification schemes (Bailey, Omernik, and World Wildlife Fund) with two derived schemes (Omernik Revised and Climate Zones) to explore their effectiveness in explaining species distributions and to better understand natural resource geography in the Klamath Region, USA. We analyzed presence/absence data derived from digital distribution maps for trees, amphibians, large mammals, small mammals, migrant birds, and resident birds using three statistical analyses of classification accuracy (Analysis of Similarity, Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates, and Classification Strength). The classifications were roughly comparable in classification accuracy, with Omernik Revised showing the best overall performance. Trees showed the strongest fidelity to the classifications, and large mammals showed the weakest fidelity. We discuss the implications for regional biogeography and describe how intermediate resolution ecoregional classifications may be appropriate for use as natural areas management domains.

Klamath Region

Evolution, biogeography, and systematics of Puriana: evolution and speciation in Ostracoda, III.

Three types of geographic isolation—land barriers, deep water barriers, and climatic barriers—resulted in three distinct evolutionary responses in Neogene and Quaternary species of the epineritic ostracode genus Puriana . Through systematic, paleobiogeographic, and morphologic study of several hundred fossil and Recent populations from the eastern Pacific, western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean, the phylogeny of the genus and the geography of speciation events were determined. Isolation of large populations by the Isthmus of Panama during the Pliocene did not lead to lineage splitting in species known to have existed before the Isthmus formed. Conversely, the establishment of small isolated populations on Caribbean islands by passive dispersal mechanisms frequently led to the evolution of new species or subspecies. Climatic changes along the southeastern United States during the Pliocene also catalyzed possible parapatric speciation as populations that immigrated to the northeastern periphery of the genus' range split to form new species. The results provide evidence that evolutionary models describing the influence of abiotic events on patterns of evolution and speciation can be tested using properly selected tectonic and climatic events and fossil groups amenable to species-level analysis. Two new species, P. bajaensis and P. paikensis , are described.

Journal of Paleontology

Genetic structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes region and the effects of supplementation on genetic integrity of wild populations

Muskellunge ( Esox masquinongy ) are important apex predators that support numerous recreational fisheries throughout the Great Lakes region. Declines in muskellunge abundance from historical overharvest and environmental degradation have threatened the viability of many populations and prompted significant restoration efforts that often include stocking. The goal of our study was to investigate contemporary population structure and genetic diversity in 42 populations of muskellunge sampled across the Great Lakes region to inform future management and supplementation practices. We genotyped 1896 muskellunge ( N = 10–123/population) at 13 microsatellite loci. The greatest genetic variation was between populations of Great Lakes origin and populations of Northern (inland) origin, with both groups also exhibiting significant substructure (overall F ST = 0.23). Genetic structure was generally correlated with geography; however, we only found marginal evidence of isolation by distance, likely due to high genetic differentiation among proximate populations. Measures of genetic diversity were moderate across most populations, but some populations displayed low diversity consistent with small population sizes or historical bottlenecks. Many of the populations studied displayed evidence of historic introductions and supplemental stocking, including the presence of individuals with primarily non-native ancestry as well as interlineage hybrids. Our results suggest that the historic population structure of muskellunge is largely intact across the Great Lakes region, but also that stocking practices have altered this structure to some degree. We suggest that future supplementation practices use local sources where possible, and incorporate genetic tools including broodstock screening to ensure that non-native muskellunge are not used to supplement wild populations.

Great Lakes

Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

Aim Climate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana , a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results. Location Alpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Taxon Lednia tumana , a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae. Methods We generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results. Results Contemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation ( F ST ) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation. Main conclusions We identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana , this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.

Montana

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI&rsquo;s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI&rsquo;s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists&rsquo; League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program&rsquo;s development and success. The value of ARMI&rsquo;s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI&rsquo;s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI&rsquo;s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

Geographic relatedness and predictability of Escherichia coli along a peninsular beach complex of Lake Michigan

To determine more accurately the real-time concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water, predictive modeling has been applied in several locations around the Great Lakes to individual or small groups of similar beaches. Using 24 beaches in Door County, Wisconsin, we attempted to expand predictive models to multiple beaches of complex geography. We examined the importance of geographic location and independent variables and the consequential limitations for potential beach or beach group models. An analysis of Escherichia coli populations over 4 yr revealed a geographic gradient to the beaches, with mean E. coli concentrations decreasing with increasing distance from the city of Sturgeon Bay. Beaches grouped strongly by water type (lake, bay, Sturgeon Bay) and proximity to one another, followed by presence of a storm or creek outfall or amount of shoreline enclosure. Predictive models developed for beach groups commonly included wave height and cumulative 48-h rainfall but generally explained little E. coli variation (adj. R 2 = 0.19-0.36). Generally low concentrations of E. coli at the beaches influenced the effectiveness of model results presumably because of low signal-to-noise ratios and the rarity of elevated concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of the sensitivity of regressors and the need for careful methods evaluation. Despite the attractiveness of predictive models as an alternative beach monitoring approach, it is likely that FIB fluctuations at some beaches defy simple prediction approaches. Regional, multi-beach, and individual beach predictive models should be explored alongside other techniques for improving monitoring reliability at Great Lakes beaches. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality

Twentieth century demographic changes in cirio and cardón in Baja California, Mexico

Aim&ensp; Our purpose was to discern long-term large-scale patterns of survivorship and recruitment of two dominant, charismatic and useful desert plants, cirio [Fouquieriaceae; Fouquieria columnaris (Kell.) Kell. ex Curran] and card&oacute;n [Cactaceae; Pachycereus pringlei (S.Watson) Britton & Rose], and to evaluate the effects of physical and human factors. Location&ensp; The study included 77 sites distributed over c. 13,200 km 2 in the northern Vizca&iacute;no Region of the Sonoran Desert, state of Baja California, M&eacute;xico. Method&ensp; Censuses used identified individuals ( n = 3780 cirio and 2246 card&oacute;n) and were based on repeat photography. Time intervals between censuses ranged from 29 to 96 years, ending in 1996&ndash;2002. Earlier repetition (1963) of old photographs at 14 sites allowed analysis of temporal variation. The effect of elapsed time was modelled with Weibull functions for survivorship and linear functions for recruitment. To explain the residual variations, we tested categorical and continuous variables related to substrate, geomorphology, climate and geography. Human impacts were weighed with historical and quantitative analysis. Results&ensp; Elapsed time accounted for 45% of the variation of survivorship in cirio but only 35% in card&oacute;n. The fitted Weibull curves were used to estimate longevity: all-size cohorts of 1000 individuals would die out in 388 (cirio) and 723 years (card&oacute;n). Recruitment in cirio was linearly related to time ( r 2 = 0.71) and averaged < 0.003 year &minus;1 but was less than mortality at 90% of the sites. For card&oacute;n, recruitment averaged > 0.005 year &minus;1 , was linearly related to time ( r 2 = 0.66) and was less than mortality at only 33% of the sites. Vital rates were not strongly correlated between mid- and late-century but were mostly similar to the long-term regional rates. Removing the factor of elapsed time, the residual variations showed that survivorship was greater on sites protected from winds for cirio and was less on very coarse soils for card&oacute;n. Recruitment increased with latitude in cirio and was greater on southern exposures for both species. The residual variations were not clearly affected, at a regional scale, by other factors thought to be important, including elevation, distance to the Pacific Ocean, geology, slope gradient, soil stability, older vs. young alluvial soils, and soil Ca : Mg and Na : K ratios. Human impacts have been sporadic and heterogeneous but locally strong; our quantitative indices of accessibility did not show regionally significant effects. Blowdown by hurricanes is a sporadic cause of major mortality for cirio but not necessarily for card&oacute;n. Main conclusions&ensp; At our scales, effects of time outweigh those of substrate, and human impact was scant. Large patterns were pronounced: cirio experienced a prolonged, widespread decline in the 1900s, while card&oacute;n fluctuated in different directions and degree among local populations. Cirio was found to be inherently much shorter-lived than card&oacute;n. We also suggest that recruitment in cirio was low due to long periods with relatively dry winters that affected the entire region, while spatial heterogeneity of card&oacute;n recruitment seemed more related to the variation in summer rains.

Journal of Biogeography