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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Dispersal and spatial heterogeneity: Single species

A recent result for a reaction-diffusion equation is that a population diffusing at any rate in an environment in which resources vary spatially will reach a higher total equilibrium biomass than the population in an environment in which the same total resources are distributed homogeneously. This has so far been proven by Lou for the case in which the reaction term has only one parameter, m ( x ) "> m ( x ) m(x) , varying with spatial location x "> x x , which serves as both the intrinsic growth rate coefficient and carrying capacity of the population. However, this striking result seems rather limited when applies to real populations. In order to make the model more relevant for ecologists, we consider a logistic reaction term, with two parameters, r ( x ) "> r ( x ) r(x) for intrinsic growth rate, and K ( x ) "> K ( x ) K(x) for carrying capacity. When r ( x ) "> r ( x ) r(x) and K ( x ) "> K ( x ) K(x) are proportional, the logistic equation takes a particularly simple form, and the earlier result still holds. In this paper we have established the result for the more general case of a positive correlation between r ( x ) "> r ( x ) r(x) and K ( x ) "> K ( x ) K(x) when dispersal rate is small. We review natural and laboratory systems to which these results are relevant and discuss the implications of the results to population theory and conservation ecology.

Journal of Mathematical Biology↗
USGS2004

Differential parasitism of seed-feeding Cydia (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by native and alien wasp species relative to elevation in subalpine Sophora (Fabaceae) forests on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

Alien parasitic wasps, including accidental introductions and purposefully released biological control agents, have been implicated in the decline of native Hawaiian Lepidoptera. Understanding the potential impacts of alien wasps requires knowledge of ecological parameters that influence parasitism rates for species in their new environment. Sophora seed-feeding Cydia spp. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were surveyed for larval parasitoids to determine how native and alien wasps are partitioned over an elevation gradient (2200-2800 m) on Hawaii Island, Hawaii. Parasitism rate of native Euderus metallicus (Eulophidae) increased with increased elevation, while parasitism rate by immigrant Calliephialtes grapholithae (Ichneumonidae) decreased. Parasitism by Pristomerus hawaiiensis (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, also decreased with increased elevation. Two other species, Diadegma blackburni (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, and Brasema cushmani (Eupelmidae), a purposefully introduced biological control agent for pepper weevil, did not vary significantly with elevation. Results are contrasted with a previous study of this system with implications for the conservation of an endangered bird species that feed on Cydia larvae. Interpretation of results is hindered by lack of knowledge of autecology of moths and wasps, origins, phylogeny, systematics, competitive ability, and physiological limitations of each wasp species. These factors should be incorporated into risk analysis for biological control introductions and invasive species programs. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Journal of Insect Conservation↗
USGS2005

Biology and conservation of Xantus's Murrelet: Discovery, taxonomy and distribution

The biology of Xantus's Murrelets Synthliboramphus hypoleucus is similar in many respects to better-studied Ancient Murrelets S. antiquus, especially regarding morphology and the species' precocial mode of post-hatching development. It nests mainly in rock crevices but also under shrubs on islands in southern California, United States, and northwestern Baja California, Mexico (27 o N to 34 o N). The species was discovered in 1859 by Janos Xantus. Two subspecies ( S. h. hypoleucus and S. h. scrippsi ) are recognized that show limited evidence of interbreeding. At sea, closely related Craveri's Murrelets S. craveri co-occur with Xantus's Murrelets off California and western Baja California during half the year, but the former species has a discrete breeding range in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Breeding was documented at 13 island groups between 1863 and 1976. Post-breeding dispersal as far north as central British Columbia, Canada (c. 52 o N) was observed in the 1940s to 1960s. A few Xantus's Murrelets disperse south of breeding colonies to Magdalena Bay, Baja California (c. 24 o N). The southernmost record is the type specimen collected by Xantus near Cabo San Lucas, Baja California (c. 23 o N). Chief threats to this species include introduced mammalian predators on breeding islands, heightened predation by natural predators in human-modified island habitats, and oil pollution. In January 2005, a Pacific Seabird Group special symposium, "Biology and conservation of the Xantus's Murrelet," highlighted conservation concerns and promoted publication of recent studies of this little-known alcid, with nine symposium papers published in this issue of Marine Ornithology. Much of what we know about Xantus's Murrelets has been learned in recent years, and many aspects of biology remain to be described.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗
USGS2016

Life history of the vulnerable endemic crayfish Cambarus (Erebicambarus) maculatus Hobbs and Pflieger, 1988 (Decapoda: Astacoidea: Cambaridae) in Missouri, USA

The vulnerable freckled crayfish, Cambarus maculatus Hobbs and Pflieger, 1988, is endemic to only one drainage in eastern Missouri, USA, which is impacted by heavy metals mining and adjacent to a rapidly-expanding urban area. We studied populations of C. maculatus in two small streams for 25 months to describe annual reproductive cycles, and gather information about fecundity, sex ratio, size at maturity, size-class structure, and growth, capturing a monthly average of more than 50 individuals from each of the two study populations. Information about the density of the species at supplemental sampling streams was also obtained. The species exhibited traits consistent with a K-strategist life history; long-lived, slow-growing, with fewer but larger eggs than sympatric crayfish species. Breeding season occurred in mid- to late autumn, potentially extending into early winter. Egg brooding occurred primarily in May. Young of year were first observed in June. We estimated that these populations contained four to six size-classes, observed smaller individuals grew faster than larger individuals, and most became sexually mature in their second year of life. Densities of C. maculatus were low relative to several sympatric species of Orconectes Cope, 1872. Life history information presented herein will be important for anticipated future conservation efforts.

Missouri↗
USGS2018

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published since January 2015

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published from 2015 to 2019

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. The first GRSG literature summary was published early in 2018. Here we provide an update to that document by adding summaries of articles published between January 6, 2018 and October 2, 2019. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. Our original search, conducted on January 7, 2018, and the application of our criteria, resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). This update adds summaries of 69 products published between then and October 2, 2019. The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). The management topics with the largest increase in representation between the 2018 GRSG literature summary and this update were GRSG survival and GRSG population estimates or targets, which were each addressed in 16 percent of products in the original literature summary document, but were addressed in 30 and 33 percent, respectively, of newly summarized products. Topics with the largest declines in representation were conifer expansion, - 17 to 10 percent, and new geospatial data, -31 to 21 percent. We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, Digital Object Identifier (DOI), product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography (https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to journal landing pages for each original publication. A substantial body of literature has been compiled on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers for the original document and by two independent reviewers for the updated document and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗
USGS1999

The diving physiology of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). III. Thermoregulation at depth

During diving, marine mammals initiate a series of cardiovascular changes that include bradycardia and decreased peripheral circulation. Because heat transfer from thermal windows located in peripheral sites of these mammals depends on blood flow, such adjustments may limit their thermoregulatory capabilities during submergence. Here, we demonstrate how the thermoregulatory responses of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) are coordinated with the diving response. Heart rate, skin temperature and heat transfer from the dorsal fin and flank were measured while dolphins rested on the water surface, stationed 5–50 m under water and floated at the surface immediately following a dive. The results showed that heat flow ranged from 42.9±7.3 to 126.2±23.1 W m −2 and varied with anatomical site and diving activity. Upon submergence, heat flow declined by 35 % from the dorsal fin and by 24 % from the flank. An immediate increase in heat flow to levels exceeding pre-dive values occurred at both sites upon resurfacing. Changes in heart rate during diving paralleled the thermoregulatory responses. Mean pre-dive heart rate (102.0±2.6 beats min −1 , N =26) decreased by 63.4 % during dives to 50 m and immediately returned to near resting levels upon resurfacing. These studies indicate that heat dissipation by dolphins is attenuated during diving. Rather than challenge the diving response, heat transfer is delayed until post-dive periods when the need for oxygen conservation is reduced.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗
USGS2015

Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi , are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global scale than faster ones. The possible causes and conservation implications of these patterns are discussed.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Experimental evidence of long-term reproductive costs in a colonial nesting seabird

Trade-offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short-term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long-lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long-term survival and breeding effects of a multi-year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla , a long-lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi-state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16-yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long-term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long-lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Genome-wide analysis of SNPs is consistent with no domestic dog ancestry in the endangered Mexican Wolf (Canis lupus baileyi)

The Mexican gray wolf ( Canis lupus baileyi ) was historically distributed throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Extensive predator removal campaigns during the early 20th century, however, resulted in its eventual extirpation by the mid 1980s. At this time, the Mexican wolf existed only in 3 separate captive lineages (McBride, Ghost Ranch, and Aragón) descended from 3, 2, and 2 founders, respectively. These lineages were merged in 1995 to increase the available genetic variation, and Mexican wolves were reintroduced into Arizona and New Mexico in 1998. Despite the ongoing management of the Mexican wolf population, it has been suggested that a proportion of the Mexican wolf ancestry may be recently derived from hybridization with domestic dogs. In this study, we genotyped 87 Mexican wolves, including individuals from all 3 captive lineages and cross-lineage wolves, for more than 172000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We identified levels of genetic variation consistent with the pedigree record and effects of genetic rescue. To identify the potential to detect hybridization with domestic dogs, we compared our Mexican wolf genotypes with those from studies of domestic dogs and other gray wolves. The proportion of Mexican wolf ancestry assigned to domestic dogs was only between 0.06% (SD 0.23%) and 7.8% (SD 1.0%) for global and local ancestry estimates, respectively; and was consistent with simulated levels of incomplete lineage sorting. Overall, our results suggested that Mexican wolves lack biologically significant ancestry with dogs and have useful implications for the conservation and management of this endangered wolf subspecies.

Journal of Heredity↗
USGS2001

Growth rate responses of Missouri and lower Yellowstone river fishes to a latitudinal gradient

Growth rate coefficients estimated for channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus, emerald shiners Notropis atherinoides, freshwater drums Aplodinotus grunniens, river carpsuckers Carpiodes carpio and saugers Stizostedion canadense collected in 1996-1998 from nine river sections of the Missouri and lower Yellowstone rivers at two life-stages (young-of-the-year and age 1 + years) were significantly different among sections. However, they showed no river-wide latitudinal trend except for age 1 + years emerald shiners that did show a weak negative relation between growth and both latitude and length of growing season. The results suggest growth rates of fishes along the Missouri River system are complex and could be of significance in the management and conservation of fish communities in this altered system. ?? 2001 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2017

Diet of the Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Belize, Central America

Belize contains important habitat for Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) and provides refuge for the highest known population density of this subspecies. As these animals face impending threats, knowledge of their dietary habits can be used to interpret resource utilization. The contents of 13 mouth, 6 digestive tract (stomach, duodenum and colon), and 124 fecal samples were microscopically examined using a modified point technique detection protocol to identify key plant species consumed by manatees at two important aggregation sites in Belize: Southern Lagoon and the Drowned Cayes. Overall, 15 different items were identified in samples from manatees in Belize. Five species of seagrasses (Halodule wrightii, Thalassia testudinum, Ruppia maritima, Syringodium filiforme, and Halophila sp.) made up the highest percentage of items. The red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle), was also identified as an important food item. Algae (Ulva sp., Chara sp., Lyngbya sp.) and invertebrates (sponges and diatoms) were also consumed. Variation in the percentage of seagrasses, other vascular plants, and algae consumption was analyzed as a 4-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) with main effects and interactions for locality, sex, size classification, and season. While sex and season did not influence diet composition, differences for locality and size classification were observed. These results suggest that analysis of diet composition of Antillean manatees may help to determine critical habitat and use of associated food resources which, in turn can be used to aid conservation efforts in Belize.

Journal of the Marine Biological Association of th↗
USGS2006

A highly conserved N-terminal sequence for teleost vitellogenin with potential value to the biochemistry, molecular biology and pathology of vitellogenesis

N-terminal amino acid sequences for vitellogenin (Vtg) from six species of teleost fish (striped bass, mummichog, pinfish, brown bullhead, medaka, yellow perch and the sturgeon) are compared with published N-terminal Vtg sequences for the lamprey, clawed frog and domestic chicken. Striped bass and mummichog had 100% identical amino acids between positions 7 and 21, while pinfish, brown bullhead, sturgeon, lamprey, Xenopus and chicken had 87%, 93%, 60%, 47%, 47-60%) for four transcripts and had 40% identical, respectively, with striped bass for the same positions. Partial sequences obtained for medaka and yellow perch were 100% identical between positions 5 to 10. The potential utility of this conserved sequence for studies on the biochemistry, molecular biology and pathology of vitellogenesis is discussed.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2014

A capture-recapture model of amphidromous fish dispersal

Adult movement scale was quantified for two tropical Caribbean diadromous fishes, bigmouth sleeper Gobiomorus dormitor and mountain mullet Agonostomus monticola, using passive integrated transponders (PITs) and radio-telemetry. Large numbers of fishes were tagged in Rio Mameyes, Puerto Rico, U.S.A., with PITs and monitored at three fixed locations over a 2-5 year period to estimate transition probabilities between upper and lower elevations and survival probabilities with a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. A sub-set of fishes were tagged with radio-transmitters and tracked at weekly intervals to estimate fine-scale dispersal. Changes in spatial and temporal distributions of tagged fishes indicated that neither G. dormitor nor A. monticola moved into the lowest, estuarine reaches of Rio Mameyes during two consecutive reproductive periods, thus demonstrating that both species follow an amphidromous, rather than catadromous, migratory strategy. Further, both species were relatively sedentary, with restricted linear ranges. While substantial dispersal of these species occurs at the larval stage during recruitment to fresh water, the results indicate minimal dispersal in spawning adults. Successful conservation of diadromous fauna on tropical islands requires management at both broad basin and localized spatial scales.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2006

A system to evaluate the scientific quality of biological and restoration objectives using National Wildlife Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plans as a case study

It is widely accepted that plans for restoration projects should contain specific, measurable, and science-based objectives to guide restoration efforts. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is in the process of developing Comprehensive Conservation Plans (CCPs) for more than 500 units in the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). These plans contain objectives for biological and ecosystem restoration efforts on the refuges. Based on USFWS policy, a system was developed to evaluate the scientific quality of such objectives based on three critical factors: (1) Is the objective specific, measurable, achievable, results-oriented, and time-fixed? (2) What is the extent of the rationale that explains the assumptions, logic, and reasoning for the objective? (3) How well was available science used in the development of the objective? The evaluation system scores each factor on a scale of 1 (poor) to 4 (excellent) according to detailed criteria. The biological and restoration objectives from CCPs published as of September 2004 (60 total) were evaluated. The overall average score for all biological and restoration objectives was 1.73. Average scores for each factor were: Factor 1-1.97; Factor 2-1.86; Factor 3-1.38. The overall scores increased from 1997 to 2004. Future restoration efforts may benefit by using this evaluation system during the process of plan development, to ensure that biological and restoration objectives are of the highest scientific quality possible prior to the implementation of restoration plans, and to allow for improved monitoring and adaptive management.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗
USGS2016

Application of genetics and genomics to wildlife epidemiology

Wildlife diseases can have significant impacts on wildlife conservation and management. Many of the pathogens that affect wildlife also have important implications for domestic animal and human health. However, management interventions to prevent or control wildlife disease are hampered by uncertainties about the complex interactions between pathogens and free-ranging wildlife. We often lack crucial knowledge about host ecology, pathogen characteristics, and host–pathogen dynamics. The purpose of this review is to familiarize wildlife biologists and managers with the application of genetic and genomic methodologies for investigating pathogen and host biology to better understand and manage wildlife diseases. The genesis of this review was a symposium at the 2013 annual Wildlife Society Conference. We reviewed the scientific literature and used our personal experiences to identify studies that illustrate the application of genetic and genomic methods to advance our understanding of wildlife epidemiology, focusing on recent research, new techniques, and innovative approaches. Using examples from a variety of pathogen types and a broad array of vertebrate taxa, we describe how genetics and genomics can provide tools to detect and characterize pathogens, uncover routes of disease transmission and spread, shed light on the ways that disease susceptibility is influenced by both host and pathogen attributes, and elucidate the impacts of disease on wildlife populations. Genetic and increasingly genomic methodologies will continue to contribute important insights into pathogen and host biology that will aid efforts to assess and mitigate the impacts of wildlife diseases on global health and conservation of biodiversity.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2026

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗
USGS2024

Joint spatial modeling bridges the gap between disparate disease surveillance and population monitoring efforts informing conservation of at-risk bat species

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is a wildlife disease that has decimated hibernating bats since its introduction in North America in 2006. As the disease spreads westward, assessing the potentially differential impact of the disease on western bat species is an urgent conservation need. The statistical challenge is that the disease surveillance and species response monitoring data are not co-located, available at different spatial resolutions, non-Gaussian, and subject to observation error requiring a novel extension to spatially misaligned regression models for analysis. Previous work motivated by epidemiology applications has proposed two-step approaches that overcome the spatial misalignment while intentionally preventing the human health outcome from informing estimation of exposure. In our application, the impacted animals contribute to spreading the fungus that causes WNS, motivating development of a joint framework that exploits the known biological relationship. We introduce a Bayesian, joint spatial modeling framework that provides inferences about the impact of WNS on measures of relative bat activity and accounts for the uncertainty in estimation of WNS presence at non-surveyed locations. Our simulations demonstrate that the joint model produced more precise estimates of disease occurrence and unbiased estimates of the association between disease presence and the count response relative to competing two-step approaches. Our statistical framework provides a solution that leverages disparate monitoring activities and informs species conservation across large landscapes. Stan code and documentation are provided to facilitate access and adaptation for other wildlife disease applications.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗