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USGS2005

Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach

Aim: To understand drivers of vegetation type distribution and sensitivity to climate change. Location: Interior Alaska. Methods: A logistic regression model was developed that predicts the potential equilibrium distribution of four major vegetation types: tundra, deciduous forest, black spruce forest and white spruce forest based on elevation, aspect, slope, drainage type, fire interval, average growing season temperature and total growing season precipitation. The model was run in three consecutive steps. The hierarchical logistic regression model was used to evaluate how scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation and fire interval may influence the distribution of the four major vegetation types found in this region. Results: At the first step, tundra was distinguished from forest, which was mostly driven by elevation, precipitation and south to north aspect. At the second step, forest was separated into deciduous and spruce forest, a distinction that was primarily driven by fire interval and elevation. At the third step, the identification of black vs. white spruce was driven mainly by fire interval and elevation. The model was verified for Interior Alaska, the region used to develop the model, where it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 60-83%. When the model was independently validated for north-west Canada, it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 53-85%. Black spruce remains the dominant vegetation type under all scenarios, potentially expanding most under warming coupled with increasing fire interval. White spruce is clearly limited by moisture once average growing season temperatures exceeded a critical limit (+2 ??C). Deciduous forests expand their range the most when any two of the following scenarios are combined: decreasing fire interval, warming and increasing precipitation. Tundra can be replaced by forest under warming but expands under precipitation increase. Main conclusion: The model analyses agree with current knowledge of the responses of vegetation types to climate change and provide further insight into drivers of vegetation change. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2005

A 40,000-year woodrat-midden record of vegetational and biogeographical dynamics in north-eastern Utah

Aim A conspicuous climatic and biogeographical transition occurs at 40-45° N in western North America. This pivot point marks a north–south opposition of wet and dry conditions at interannual and decadal time-scales, as well as the northern and southern limits of many dominant western plant species. Palaeoecologists have yet to focus on past climatic and biotic shifts along this transition, in part because it requires comparisons across dissimilar records [i.e. pollen from lacustrine sediments to the north and plant macrofossils from woodrat ( Neotoma ) middens to the south]. To overcome these limitations, we are extending the woodrat-midden record northward into the lowlands of the central Rocky Mountains. Location Woodrat middens were collected from crevices and rock shelters on south-facing slopes of Dutch John Mountain (2000-2200 m, 40°57′ N, 109°25′ W), situated on the eastern flanks of the Uinta Mountains in north-eastern Utah. The site is near the regional limits for Pinus ponderosa, P. edulis, P. contorta, Cercocarpus ledifolius var. intricatus, Abies concolor, Ephedra viridis and other important western species. Methods We analysed pollen and plant macrofossils from the 40,000-year midden sequence. The middens represent brief, depositional episodes (mostly years to decades). Four middens represent the early to full-glacial period (40,000–18,000 cal-yr bp), eight middens are from the late-glacial/early Holocene transition (13,500–9000 cal yr bp), and 33 middens span the mid-to-late Holocene (last 7500 years). Temporal density of our Holocene middens (one every c. 210 years) is comparable with typical Holocene pollen sequences from lake sediments. Results Early to full-glacial assemblages are characterized by low diversity and occurrence of montane conifers ( Picea pungens, Pseudotsuga menziesii, P. flexilis, Juniperus communis ) absent from the site today. Diversity increases in the late-glacial samples with the addition of J. scopulorum, J. horizontalis, C. montanus, C. ledifolius var. intricatus and mesic understory species. The coniferous trees and J. communis declined and J. osteosperma appeared during the late-glacial/Holocene transition. Juniperus osteosperma populations have occupied the site throughout the Holocene. Pinus ponderosa was established by 7500 cal-yr bp, and has occurred at least locally ever since. Montane conifers and J. horizontalis persisted until c. 5500 cal-yr bp. The signature events of the late Holocene were the invasions of P. edulis and Ephedra viridis and establishment of pinyon–juniper woodland in the last 800 years. Main conclusions The Dutch John Mountain midden record adds to an emerging picture in which mid-elevation conifers ( P. flexilis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Picea pungens, J. scopulorum, J. communis ) dominated vegetation over a wide area of the Colorado Plateau and adjacent Rocky Mountains. Rather than being fragmented, as often assumed in phylogeographical studies, these species had broader and more-connected distributions than they do in the region today. Paradoxically, subalpine conifers ( Picea engelmannii, A. lasiocarpa ) occurred at higher elevations to the south, possibly representing declining precipitation from south to north owing to southward displacement of the polar jet stream. The Dutch John Mountain record displays a series of extinction and invasion events. Most of the extinctions were local in scale; nearly all constituents of fossil midden assemblages occur within a few kilometres of Dutch John Mountain, and some occur at least locally on its slopes. The sole exception is J. horizontalis , which is regionally extinct. In contrast to extinctions, Holocene invasions were regional in scale; J. osteosperma, P. ponderosa, P. edulis and Ephedra viridis immigrated from glacial-age source populations far to the south.

Utah↗

USGS2007

Mangrove forest distributions and dynamics (1975–2005) of the tsunami-affected region of Asia

Aim We aimed to estimate the present extent of tsunami-affected mangrove forests and determine the rates and causes of deforestation from 1975 to 2005. Location Our study region covers the tsunami-affected coastal areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Burma (Myanmar), Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka in Asia. Methods We interpreted time-series Landsat data using a hybrid supervised and unsupervised classification approach. Landsat data were geometrically corrected to an accuracy of plus-or-minus half a pixel, an accuracy necessary for change analysis. Each image was normalized for solar irradiance by converting digital number values to the top-of-the atmosphere reflectance. Ground truth data and existing maps and data bases were used to select training samples and also for iterative labelling. We used a post-classification change detection approach. Results were validated with the help of local experts and/or high-resolution commercial satellite data. Results The region lost 12% of its mangrove forests from 1975 to 2005, to a present extent of c . 1,670,000 ha. Rates and causes of deforestation varied both spatially and temporally. Annual deforestation was highest in Burma ( c . 1%) and lowest in Sri Lanka (0.1%). In contrast, mangrove forests in India and Bangladesh remained unchanged or gained a small percentage. Net deforestation peaked at 137,000 ha during 1990–2000, increasing from 97,000 ha during 1975–90, and declining to 14,000 ha during 2000–05. The major causes of deforestation were agricultural expansion (81%), aquaculture (12%) and urban development (2%). Main conclusions We assessed and monitored mangrove forests in the tsunami-affected region of Asia using the historical archive of Landsat data. We also measured the rates of change and determined possible causes. The results of our study can be used to better understand the role of mangrove forests in saving lives and property from natural disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami, and to identify possible areas for conservation, restoration and rehabilitation.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2008

Fish assemblages of the Casiquiare River, a corridor and zoogeographical filter for dispersal between the Orinoco and Amazon basins

Aim: The aim of this study was to determine whether the Casiquiare River functions as a free dispersal corridor or as a partial barrier (i.e. filter) for the interchange of fish species of the Orinoco and Negro/Amazon basins using species assemblage patterns according to geographical location and environmental features. Location: The Casiquiare, Upper Orinoco and Upper Negro rivers in southern Venezuela, South America. Methods: Our study was based on an analysis of species presence/absence data and environmental information (11 habitat characteristics) collected by the authors and colleagues between the years 1984 and 1999. The data set consisted of 269 sampled sites and 452 fish species (> 50,000 specimens). A wide range of habitat types was included in the samples, and the collection sites were located at various points along the entire length of the Casiquiare main channel, at multiple sites on its tributary streams, as well as at various nearby sites outside the Casiquiare drainage, within the Upper Orinoco and Upper Rio Negro river systems. Most specimens and field data used in this analysis are archived in the Museo de Ciencias Naturales in Guanare, Venezuela. We performed canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) based on species presence/absence using two versions of the data set: one that eliminated sites having < 5 species and species occurring at < 5 sites; and another that eliminated sites having < 10 species and species occurring at < 10 sites. Cluster analysis was performed on sites based on species assemblage similarity, and a separate analysis was performed on species based on CCA loadings. Results: The CCA results for the two versions of the data set were qualitatively the same. The dominant environmental axis contrasted assemblages and sites associated with blackwater vs. clearwater conditions. Longitudinal position on the Casiquiare River was correlated (r2 = 0.33) with CCA axis-1 scores, reflecting clearwater conditions nearer to its origin (bifurcation of the Orinoco) and blackwater conditions nearer to its mouth (junction with the Rio Negro). The second CCA axis was most strongly associated with habitat size and structural complexity. Species associations derived from the unweighted pair-group average clustering method and pair-wise squared Euclidean distances calculated from species loadings on CCA axes 1 and 2 showed seven ecological groupings. Cluster analysis of species assemblages according to watershed revealed a stronger influence of local environmental conditions than of geographical proximity. Main conclusions: Fish assemblage composition is more consistently associated with local environmental conditions than with geographical position within the river drainages. Nonetheless, the results support the hypothesis that the mainstem Casiquiare represents a hydrochemical gradient between clearwaters at its origin and blackwaters at its mouth, and as such appears to function as a semi-permeable barrier (environmental filter) to dispersal and faunal exchanges between the partially vicariant fish faunas of the Upper Orinoco and Upper Negro rivers. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2010

Predicting species distributions from checklist data using site-occupancy models

Aim: (1) To increase awareness of the challenges induced by imperfect detection, which is a fundamental issue in species distribution modelling; (2) to emphasize the value of replicate observations for species distribution modelling; and (3) to show how 'cheap' checklist data in faunal/floral databases may be used for the rigorous modelling of distributions by site-occupancy models. Location: Switzerland. Methods: We used checklist data collected by volunteers during 1999 and 2000 to analyse the distribution of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly in Switzerland. We used data from repeated visits to 1-ha pixels to derive 'detection histories' and apply site-occupancy models to estimate the 'true' species distribution, i.e. corrected for imperfect detection. We modelled blue hawker distribution as a function of elevation and year and its detection probability of elevation, year and season. Results: The best model contained cubic polynomial elevation effects for distribution and quadratic effects of elevation and season for detectability. We compared the site-occupancy model with a conventional distribution model based on a generalized linear model, which assumes perfect detectability (p = 1). The conventional distribution map looked very different from the distribution map obtained using site-occupancy models that accounted for the imperfect detection. The conventional model underestimated the species distribution by 60%, and the slope parameters of the occurrence-elevation relationship were also underestimated when assuming p = 1. Elevation was not only an important predictor of blue hawker occurrence, but also of the detection probability, with a bell-shaped relationship. Furthermore, detectability increased over the season. The average detection probability was estimated at only 0.19 per survey. Main conclusions: Conventional species distribution models do not model species distributions per se but rather the apparent distribution, i.e. an unknown proportion of species distributions. That unknown proportion is equivalent to detectability. Imperfect detection in conventional species distribution models yields underestimates of the extent of distributions and covariate effects that are biased towards zero. In addition, patterns in detectability will erroneously be ascribed to species distributions. In contrast, site-occupancy models applied to replicated detection/non-detection data offer a powerful framework for making inferences about species distributions corrected for imperfect detection. The use of 'cheap' checklist data greatly enhances the scope of applications of this useful class of models. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

Multilocus phylogeography and population structure of common eiders breeding in North America and Scandinavia

Aim Glacial refugia during the Pleistocene had major impacts on the levels and spatial apportionment of genetic diversity of species in northern latitude ecosystems. We characterized patterns of population subdivision, and tested hypotheses associated with locations of potential Pleistocene refugia and the relative contribution of these refugia to the post-glacial colonization of North America and Scandinavia by common eiders ( Somateria mollissima ). Specifically, we evaluated localities hypothesized as ice-free areas or glacial refugia for other Arctic vertebrates, including Beringia, the High Arctic Canadian Archipelago, Newfoundland Bank, Spitsbergen Bank and north-west Norway. Location Alaska, Canada, Norway and Sweden. Methods Molecular data from 12 microsatellite loci, the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, and two nuclear introns were collected and analysed for 15 populations of common eiders ( n = 716) breeding throughout North America and Scandinavia. Population genetic structure, historical population fluctuations and gene flow were inferred using F -statistics, analyses of molecular variance, and multilocus coalescent analyses. Results Significant inter-population variation in allelic and haplotypic frequencies were observed (nuclear DNA F ST = 0.004–0.290; mtDNA Φ ST = 0.051–0.927). Whereas spatial differentiation in nuclear genes was concordant with subspecific designations, geographic proximity was more predictive of inter-population variance in mitochondrial DNA haplotype frequency. Inferences of historical population demography were consistent with restriction of common eiders to four geographic areas during the Last Glacial Maximum: Belcher Islands, Newfoundland Bank, northern Alaska and Svalbard. Three of these areas coincide with previously identified glacial refugia: Newfoundland Bank, Beringia and Spitsbergen Bank. Gene-flow and clustering analyses indicated that the Beringian refugium contributed little to common eider post-glacial colonization of North America, whereas Canadian, Scandinavian and southern Alaskan post-glacial colonization is likely to have occurred in a stepwise fashion from the same glacial refugium. Main conclusions Concordance of proposed glacial refugia used by common eiders and other Arctic species indicates that Arctic and subarctic refugia were important reservoirs of genetic diversity during the Pleistocene. Furthermore, suture zones identified at MacKenzie River, western Alaska/Aleutians and Scandinavia coincide with those identified for other Arctic vertebrates, suggesting that these regions were strong geographic barriers limiting dispersal from Pleistocene refugia.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), blue‐winged teal ( Anas discors ), ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and pied‐billed grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, ↗

USGS2011

Evolution of natural history information in the 21st century – developing an integrated framework for biological and geographical data

Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuarine scale to invasive species and climate change at regional and global scales. To help address research questions across these scales, we provide here a standardized framework for a biogeographical information system containing queriable biological data that allows extraction of information on multiple species, across a variety of spatial scales based on species distributions, natural history attributes and habitat requirements. As scientists shift from research on localized impacts on individual species to regional and global scale threats, macroecological approaches of studying multiple species over broad geographical areas are becoming increasingly important. The standardized framework described here for capturing and integrating biological and geographical data is a critical first step towards addressing these macroecological questions and we urge organizations capturing biogeoinformatics data to consider adopting this framework.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

Rodent middens reveal episodic, long-distance plant colonizations across the hyperarid Atacama Desert over the last 34,000 years

Aim To document the impact of late Quaternary pluvial events on plant movements between the coast and the Andes across the Atacama Desert, northern Chile. Location Sites are located along the lower and upper fringes of absolute desert (1100–2800 m a.s.l.), between the western slope of the Andes and the Coastal Ranges of northern Chile (24–26° S). Methods We collected and individually radiocarbon dated 21 rodent middens. Plant macrofossils (fruits, seeds, flowers and leaves) were identified and pollen content analysed. Midden assemblages afford brief snapshots of local plant communities that existed within the rodents' limited foraging range during the several years to decades that it took the midden to accumulate. These assemblages were then compared with modern floras to determine the presence of extralocal species and species provenance. Results Five middens span the last glacial period (34–21 ka) and three middens are from the last glacial–interglacial transition (19–11 ka). The remaining 13 middens span the last 7000 years. Coastal hyperarid sites exhibit low taxonomic richness in middens at 19.3, 1.1, 1.0, 0.9, 0.5 ka and a modern sample. Middens are also dominated by the same plants that occur today. In contrast, middens dated to 28.1, 21.3, 17.3, 3.7 and 0.5 ka contain more species, including Andean extralocals. Precordillera middens (c. 2700 m) show a prominent increase in plant macrofossil richness, along with the appearance of Andean extralocals and sedges at 34.5 and 18.9 ka. Six younger middens dated to 6.1–0.1 ka are similar to the modern local vegetation. Main conclusions Increased species richness and Andean extralocal plants occurred along the current lower fringes of absolute desert during the last glacial–interglacial transition and late Holocene. The absence of soil carbonates indicates the persistence of absolute desert throughout the Quaternary. Colonization by Andean plants could have been accomplished through long-distance seed dispersal either by animals or floods that originated in the Andes. We postulate that dispersal would have been most frequent during regional pluvial events and associated increases in groundwater levels, forming local wetlands in the absolute desert, and generating large floods capable of crossing the Central Depression.

Atacama Desert↗

USGS2012

Patterns and controlling factors of species diversity in the Arctic Ocean

Aim The Arctic Ocean is one of the last near-pristine regions on Earth, and, although human activities are expected to impact on Arctic ecosystems, we know very little about baseline patterns of Arctic Ocean biodiversity. This paper aims to describe Arctic Ocean-wide patterns of benthic biodiversity and to explore factors related to the large-scale species diversity patterns. Location Arctic Ocean. Methods We used large ostracode and foraminiferal datasets to describe the biodiversity patterns and applied comprehensive ecological modelling to test the degree to which these patterns are potentially governed by environmental factors, such as temperature, productivity, seasonality, ice cover and others. To test environmental control of the observed diversity patterns, subsets of samples for which all environmental parameters were available were analysed with multiple regression and model averaging. Results Well-known negative latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs) were found in metazoan Ostracoda, but the LSDGs were unimodal with an intermediate maximum with respect to latitude in protozoan foraminifera. Depth species diversity gradients were unimodal, with peaks in diversity shallower than those in other oceans. Our modelling results showed that several factors are significant predictors of diversity, but the significant predictors were different among shallow marine ostracodes, deep-sea ostracodes and deep-sea foraminifera. Main conclusions On the basis of these Arctic Ocean-wide comprehensive datasets, we document large-scale diversity patterns with respect to latitude and depth. Our modelling results suggest that the underlying mechanisms causing these species diversity patterns are unexpectedly complex. The environmental parameters of temperature, surface productivity, seasonality of productivity, salinity and ice cover can all play a role in shaping large-scale diversity patterns, but their relative importance may depend on the ecological preferences of taxa and the oceanographic context of regions. These results suggest that a multiplicity of variables appear to be related to community structure in this system.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2012

Temporal, spatial and ecological dynamics of speciation among amphi-Beringian small mammals

Quaternary climate cycles played an important role in promoting diversification across the Northern Hemisphere, although details of the mechanisms driving evolutionary change are still poorly resolved. In a comparative phylogeographical framework, we investigate temporal, spatial and ecological components of evolution within a suite of Holarctic small mammals. We test a hypothesis of simultaneous divergence among multiple taxon pairs, investigating time to coalescence and demographic change for each taxon in response to a combination of climate and geography.

Beringia↗

USGS2013

Influence of monsoon-related riparian phenology on yellow-billed cuckoo habitat selection in Arizona

Aim: The western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis), a Neotropical migrant bird, is facing steep population declines in its western breeding grounds owing primarily to loss of native habitat. The favoured esting habitat for the cuckoo in the south-western United States is low-elevation riparian forests and woodlands. Our aim was to explore relationships between vegetation phenology patterns captured by satellite phenometrics and the distribution of the yellow-billed cuckoo, and to use this information to map cuckoo habitat. Location: Arizona, USA. Methods: Land surface phenometrics were derived from satellite Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), bi-weekly time-composite, ormalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for 1998 and 1999 at a resolution of 1 km. Fourier harmonics were used to analyse the waveform of the annual NDVI profile in each pixel. To create the models, we coupled 1998 satellite phenometrics with 1998 field survey data of cuckoo presence or absence and with point data that sampled riparian and cottonwood–willow vegetation types. Our models were verified and refined using field and satellite data collected in 1999. Results: The models reveal that cuckoos prefer areas that experience peak greenness 29 days later, are 36% more dynamic and slightly (< 1%) more productive than their average cottonwood–willow habitat. The results support a scenario in which cuckoos migrate northwards, following the greening of riparian corridors and surrounding landscapes in response to monsoon precipitation, but then select a nesting site based on optimizing the near-term foraging potential of the neighbourhood. Main conclusions: The identification of preferred phenotypes within recognized habitat can be used to refine future habitat models, inform habitat response to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies. For example, models of phenotype preferences can guide management actions by identifying and prioritizing for conservation those landscapes that reliably exhibit highly preferred phenometrics on a consistent basis.

Arizona↗

USGS2013

A multilocus evaluation of ermine ( Mustela erminea ) across the Holarctic, testing hypotheses of Pleistocene diversification in response to climate change

Aim: We examined data for ermine (Mustela erminea) to test two sets of diversification hypotheses concerning the number and location of late Pleistocene refugia, the timing and mode of diversification, and the evolutionary influence of insularization. Location: Temperate and sub-Arctic Northern Hemisphere. Methods: We used up to two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci from 237 specimens for statistical phylogeographical and demographic analyses. Coalescent species-tree estimation used a Bayesian approach for clade divergence based on external mutation rate calibrations. Approximate Bayesian methods were used to assess population size, timing of divergence and gene flow. Results: Limited structure coupled with evidence of population growth across broad regions, including previously ice-covered areas, indicated expansion from multiple centres of differentiation, but high endemism along the North Pacific coast (NPC). A bifurcating model of diversification with recent growth spanning three glacial cycles best explained the empirical data. Main conclusions: A newly identified clade in North America indicated a fourth refugial area for ermine. The shallow coalescence of all extant ermine reflects a recent history of diversification overlying a deeper fossil record. Post-glacial colonization has led to potential contact zones for multiple lineages in north-western North America. A model of diversification of ermine accompanied by recent gene flow was marginally less well supported than a model of divergence of major clades in response to the most recent glacial cycles.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2014

The history of sturgeon in the Baltic Sea

Aim Migrants of the Atlantic sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus, from North America are thought to have founded the Baltic sturgeon population during the Little Ice Age around 1200 years ago, replacing the European sturgeon, Acipenser sturio. To test this hypothesis and to further elucidate the colonization of the Baltic Sea by A. oxyrinchus, we carried out DNA analyses of ancient and contemporary populations of both species. Location We analysed DNA from 188 specimens of sturgeons collected from archaeological sites and museums in Poland and of 225 contemporary specimens from North American and European populations. Methods Several mitochondrial DNA fragments were sequenced and eight microsatellite loci were genotyped for species identification, polymorphism and population structure analyses. Approximate Bayesian computation was used to estimate when the Baltic Sea was colonized. Results Of 125 ancient sturgeon specimens from the Baltic Sea, only four were classified as A. sturio, the remainder being A. oxyrinchus oxyrinchus. The ancient A. o. oxyrinchus population over two different time periods was highly polymorphic and genetically distant from contemporary populations of this taxon. The time of entry into the Baltic Sea was estimated to be 4000–5000 years ago. We also detected introgression of A. sturio into the A. o. oxyrinchus gene pool, caused by a prior hybridization event. Main conclusions For the past 2000 years at least, A. o. oxyrinchus has been the dominant sturgeon in the Baltic Sea, indicating a much earlier origin than previously suggested. The most similar extant sturgeon populations to the extinct Baltic stock are those from the St John and St Lawrence rivers in Canada. These populations should be considered the best source of breeding material for the ongoing sturgeon restitution programmes in Poland and Germany.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2014

Evidence against a Pleistocene desert refugium in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Aim The absence of Sonoran Desert plants in late Pleistocene-aged packrat middens has led to speculation that they survived glacial episodes either in refugia as intact associations (Clementsian community concept) or in dry microsites within chaparral or woodland according to individualistic species responses (Gleasonian community concept). To test these hypotheses, we developed a midden record from one likely refugium in north-eastern Baja California, Mexico. We also measured stomatal guard cell size in fossil leaves to further evaluate site-level individualistic responses of Larrea tridentata (creosote bush) ploidy races to climatic changes, including monsoonal history, over the late Quaternary. Location Sierra Juárez, Lower Colorado River Basin, north-eastern Baja California, Mexico. Methods Packrat ( Neotoma ) middens were collected from <300 m elevation on the eastern piedmont of the Sierra Juárez. Plant macrofossils and pollen were analysed from 50 dated middens, including determination of Larrea tridentata ploidy races. Results Pleistocene middens dating back to >55,000 cal. yr BP contained a mix of extralocal species characteristic of chaparral and pinyon–juniper–oak woodland, along with some modern desert elements. Many other desert taxa were absent during the Pleistocene, although most had arrived by the beginning of the Holocene 11,700 years ago. Main conclusions The assemblage of chaparral, woodland and select desert elements refutes the hypothesis that the Lower Colorado River Basin served as a late Pleistocene refugium for Sonoran Desert flora. The rapid arrival of most missing desert species by the early Holocene suggests they did not have far to migrate. They probably survived the last glacial period as smaller, disparate populations in dry microsites within chaparral and pinyon–juniper–oak woodlands. Diploid and tetraploid races of Larrea tridentata were present during the Pleistocene, but hexaploids did not appear until the mid-Holocene. This demonstrates that individualistic responses to climate involved genetic variants, in this case cytotypes, and not just species.

Baja California↗

USGS2015

The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America

Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America extending from northern British Columbia, Canada, to northern Utah and Colorado, USA. Methods. We used a multivariate framework to collapse 12 climatic variables into two major climate gradients and binned them into 73 discrete climate domains. We examined variation in fire-regime components (frequency, size, severity, seasonality and cause) across climate domains. Fire-regime attributes were compiled from existing databases and Landsat imagery for 1897 large fires. Relationships among the fire-regime components, climate gradients and human influence were examined through bivariate regressions. The unique contribution of human influence was also assessed. Results. A primary climate gradient of temperature and summer precipitation and a secondary gradient of continentality and winter precipitation in the study area were identified. Fire occupied a distinct central region of such climate space, within which fire-regime components varied considerably. We identified significant interrelations between fire-regime components of fire size, frequency, burn severity and cause. The influence of humans was apparent in patterns of burn severity and ignition cause. Main conclusions. Wildfire activity is highest where thermal and moisture gradients converge to promote fuel production, flammability and ignitions. Having linked fire-regime components to large-scale climate gradients, we show that fire regimes – like the climate that controls them – are a part of a continuum, expanding on models of varying constraints on fire activity. The observed relationships between fire-regime components, together with the distinct role of climatic and human influences, generate variation in biotic communities. Thus, future changes to climate may lead to ecological changes through altered fire regimes.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2015

Genetic signatures of historical dispersal of fish threatened by biological invasions: the case of galaxiids in South America

Aim The ecological effects of biological invasions are well documented, but little is known about the effects of invaders on the genetic structure of native species. We examined the phylogeography, genetic variation and population structuring of two galaxiid fishes, Aplochiton zebra and A. taeniatus , threatened by non-native salmonids, and whose conservation is complicated by misidentification and limited knowledge of their genetic diversity. Location Chile and the Falkland Islands. Methods We combined microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA (16S rDNA and COI) markers to compare genetic diversity, effective population size and gene flow of Aplochiton spp. populations differentially affected by salmonid presence. Results We identified two 16S rDNA haplotypes among A. zebra – one dominant in coastal populations and another dominant in inland populations. Populations living on the island of Chiloé displayed a mixture of coastal and inland haplotypes, as well as high microsatellite diversity, as one would expect if the island had been a refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum, or a contact zone among populations. Microsatellite data revealed strong population structuring, indicative of current isolation patterns, and a negative correlation between the genetic diversity of A. zebra and the relative abundance of invasive salmonids. Main conclusions Our study indicates that population structuring of A. zebra reflects the influence of historical patterns of migration, but also the current levels of reduced gene flow among watersheds. Invasive salmonids, known to compete with and prey on native galaxiids, may have had negative impacts on the genetic diversity of Aplochiton spp. The low genetic variation found in some populations, coupled with potential biases in abundance estimates due to species misidentification, highlight the urgent need for more research into the conservation status of the two species of Aplochiton .

Journal of Biogeography↗