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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Debris-flow monitoring on volcanoes via a novel usage of a laser rangefinder

Mount Rainier has had at least 11 large lahars over the last 6,000 years, including one occurring without evidence of eruptive activity. This prompted the creation of a lahar detection system that uses a combination of seismic, infrasound, and tripwires. We test a laser rangefinder placed on a river channel bank for detecting and confirming mass movements flowing past a station as an alternative to the physical tripwires. After testing the device at an experimental debris-flow flume, the laser rangefinder successfully captured a small debris flow on Mount Rainier in 2023, confirming its effectiveness as a lahar detection and monitoring tool. Over the 2-month deployment at Mount Rainier, we find that spurious recordings in the laser rangefinder data (noise) tend to correlate with high humidity, and that periods of noise do not correlate with increased co-located seismic amplitude. Therefore, the impact of the noise on future alarms can be mitigated by coupling a laser rangefinder alarm with that of independent datasets.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2025

Monitoring lava lake fluctuations and crater refilling with continuous laser rangefinders

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has developed a new method to continuously monitor lava lake elevations. Since 2018, HVO has stationed a laser rangefinder on Kīlauea’s caldera rim. The instrument automatically measures lava lake elevation each second, with centimeter accuracy. A stream of elevation data flows to HVO’s database and public website, contributing a valuable channel to HVO’s volcano monitoring network. The data display is intuitive for users, providing essential information with a new level of clarity. HVO has used this method to track Kīlauea’s changing lava lake elevations over a series of eruptions, and the time series data show several volcanic processes: crater refilling, gas pistoning, lava lake surface behavior, and endogenous crater floor uplift. This technique is versatile, nimble, and easy to use. Continuous laser rangefinders may also prove useful for tracking lava lakes elsewhere, and for monitoring other hazards such as growing lava domes and debris flows.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Mitigation of human cognitive bias in volcanic eruption forecasting

Modern operational eruption forecasting methods rely heavily on human judgment in the face of uncertainty and are thus susceptible to myriad cognitive biases and errors by the scientist-forecasters. Recent developments in the behavioral sciences have elucidated cognitive biases across a wide spectrum of human behaviors and found ways to mitigate them. These insights have led to significant gains in human forecast accuracy across a range of disciplines. However, such gains have yet to widely penetrate volcanic eruption forecasting efforts. In this study, we review recent progress in these fields as relevant to improving current eruption forecasting methods as practiced by volcano observatories worldwide. We group cognitive biases into 1) information and selection biases, 2) group effects and social-emotional biases, and 3) framing and decision biases and highlight the numerous places in which these biases may permeate eruption forecasts. We present a framework for improving group discussion and forecasting processes at volcano observatories, considering recent gains from behavioral sciences along with a mitigation checklist to effectively reduce bias in operational eruption forecasts. Finally, we present an updated forecasting methodology for use in our own group, the US Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, based on previous “multiple datasets” methods, that includes clear and deliberate efforts to minimize cognitive biases and thus improve eruption forecasting accuracy.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2026

Getting the story straight: Common misconceptions around volcanoes and eruptions with case studies of recent events

The ability to rapidly disseminate scientific knowledge across the world has never been greater. This is paralleled by the ability of rumors to spread equally far and fast. Popular misconceptions can take root and, without correction, take on the appearance of facts. Commonly misunderstood topics include those with attention-grabbing phrasing (e.g. “Pacific Ring of Fire”, “supervolcanoes”, or “mega-tsunamis”), the intersection of volcanic research with high-profile science topics (climate or human health), aspirational science goals (eruption forecasts), and basic terminology (volcanic ash versus smoke, or magma “chambers”). In this paper, we describe eighteen misconceptions grouped in six themes (seismology, volcanoes and climate, systems and structures, volcanic hazards, timescales, photographs and footage) commonly encountered by volcanologists who are actively engaging with the public and media both during and between eruptions. Each misconception description is accompanied by takeaway points and summaries of recent research to assist the reader with the information necessary to describe the issues. Finally, we present seven case studies where incorrect information was widely shared and counteracted at well-known volcanoes and recent eruptions at Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia), Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kīlauea (Hawaii, U.S.A.), Tajogaite (La Palma, Spain), La Soufrière (St. Vincent), Taal Volcano (Philippines), and Yellowstone caldera (U.S.A.). This work is intended to help both volcanologists and non-specialists get the story straight, and to effectively communicate processes and scales of volcanism and volcanic hazards, impacts, and risks.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2026

Seeing is believing: Livestream video monitoring of Hawaiian eruptions

Livestream video has become a crucial tool for volcano monitoring in recent years, building upon the use of webcam snapshots that have been common for the past two decades. In Hawaii, livestream video was first tested in 2018, and today, livestream video is a vital tool for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and partner agencies (National Park Service and Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense) as well as the public. Its role in volcano monitoring has been highlighted by the 2024–present summit eruption of Kīlauea—where three livestream video feeds provide a continuous and easily accessible view of the activity for the public. Here, we describe the methodology and equipment used for the livestream cameras in Hawaii and discuss the benefits and challenges of livestream video monitoring. We show how the nature of livestream video has fundamentally changed volcano monitoring, providing an “up-close” view to the world that was previously limited to observatory field staff. The livestream video feeds, coupled with the historical summit lava fountains, have provided an unprecedented level of engagement with the public, both local and worldwide.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Eruption of stagnant lava from an inactive perched lava lake

Lava flow hazards are usually thought to end when the erupting vent becomes inactive, but this is not always the case. At Kīlauea in August 2014, a spiny ʻaʻā flow erupted from the levee of a crusted perched lava lake that had been inactive for a month, and the surface of the lava lake subsided as the flow advanced downslope over the following few days. Topography constructed from oblique aerial photographs using structure-from-motion (SfM) software shows that the volume of the flow (∼68,000 m 3 ) closely matches the volume of subsidence of the crusted lava lake (∼64,000 m 3 ). The similarity of these volumes, along with the textural characteristics of the lava, shows that the lava that fed the flow had been stored beneath the surface of the perched lava lake, and that the flow was not generated by reactivation of the vent. This extends the duration of the local lava flow hazard presented by perched lava lakes and similar flow field structures that store lava, such as rootless shields. The flow probably occurred because the density of the lava beneath the crusted surface of the perched lava lake increased through loss of gas bubbles until it was able to penetrate the less-dense levee, which was composed of relatively vesicular overflows. The flow is thus equivalent to the lava seeps described previously at Kīlauea and elsewhere. We present a simple physical model for the pressure change at the base of a densifying body of lava, which we apply to this case study, and which could be applied to similar scenarios elsewhere.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Investigating the accuracy of one‐dimensional volcanic plume models using laboratory experiments and field data

During volcanic eruptions, model predictions of plume height are limited by the accuracy of entrainment coefficients used in many plume models. Typically, two parameters are used, α and β , which relate the entrained air speed to the jet speed in the axial and cross‐flow directions, respectively. To improve estimates of these parameters, wind tunnel experiments have been conducted for a range of cross‐wind velocities and turbulence conditions. Measurements are compared directly to computations from the 1‐D plume model, Plumeria, in the near‐field, bending region of the jet. Entrainment coefficients are determined through regression analysis, demonstrating optimal combinations of effective α and β values. For turbulent conditions, all wind speeds overlapped at a single combination, α = 0.06 and β =0.46, each of which are slightly reduced from standard values. Refined coefficients were used to model plume heights for 20 historical eruptions. Model accuracy improves modestly in most cases, agreeing to within 3 km with observed plume heights. For weak eruptions, uncertainty in field measurements can outweigh the effects of these refinements, illustrating the challenge of applying plume models in practice.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2021

Azorella compacta's long-term growth rate, longevity, and potential for dating geomorphological and archaeological features in the arid southern Peruvian Andes

We determine the long-term growth rate and longevity of an Azorella compacta growing on Misti volcano, near Arequipa, Peru to investigate the species' capacity as a geochronological resource. Using 14 C dating on stem pieces sequestered within the plant's cushion, which grows larger through time, we obtain ages of 15 ± 15 14 C yrs BP and 165 ± 15 14 C yrs BP at depths of 15 cm and 29 cm below the cushion's living surface, respectively. Applying a mixed calibration curve with a Bayesian growth model yields calendar age ranges of 1948–1958 CE and 1802–1935 CE for our 14 C dates, respectively. Such ages provide sufficiently precise constraints for investigations requiring dating during the last few hundred years when individual 14 C dates yield imprecise calendar age ranges. We infer a long-term growth rate of 1.3–3.5 mm yr −1 , corroborating published maximum short-term growth rates. Extrapolating our growth model to the A. compacta 's core suggests that it began growing as early as 1462–1830 CE. At such age it lived through myriad important geological and historical events, including regional earthquakes, volcanic unrest at Misti, decades to centuries of the Little Ice Age, and a broad transect of Peruvian history possibly beginning during the Inca Empire. A. compacta may provide another important geochronological resource in the arid Central Andes that can be applied to date volcanological, glacial, mass-movement, and archaeological features, especially where dendrochronology and lichenometry are not possible.

Peruvian Andes↗
USGS2015

An automated SO2 camera system for continuous, real-time monitoring of gas emissions from Kīlauea Volcano's summit Overlook Crater

SO 2 camera systems allow rapid two-dimensional imaging of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emitted from volcanic vents. Here, we describe the development of an SO 2 camera system specifically designed for semi-permanent field installation and continuous use. The integration of innovative but largely “off-the-shelf” components allowed us to assemble a robust and highly customizable instrument capable of continuous, long-term deployment at Kīlauea Volcano's summit Overlook Crater. Recorded imagery is telemetered to the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) where a novel automatic retrieval algorithm derives SO 2 column densities and emission rates in real-time. Imagery and corresponding emission rates displayed in the HVO operations center and on the internal observatory website provide HVO staff with useful information for assessing the volcano's current activity. The ever-growing archive of continuous imagery and high-resolution emission rates in combination with continuous data from other monitoring techniques provides insight into shallow volcanic processes occurring at the Overlook Crater. An exemplary dataset from September 2013 is discussed in which a variation in the efficiency of shallow circulation and convection, the processes that transport volatile-rich magma to the surface of the summit lava lake, appears to have caused two distinctly different phases of lake activity and degassing. This first successful deployment of an SO 2 camera for continuous, real-time volcano monitoring shows how this versatile technique might soon be adapted and applied to monitor SO 2 degassing at other volcanoes around the world.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2023

Paleomagnetically defined brief lifespans for two large shield volcanoes in the Cascades Arc

Mafic to intermediate shield volcanoes with multi-cubic-kilometer eruptive volumes are common in the Cascades Volcanic Arc, but little is known about their eruptive histories as either singular or sustained episodes, or the total time required for their construction. Paleomagnetic data were collected from the lava flows of Ash Creek Butte (17 sites) and Crater Mountain (14 sites) in northern California; both volcanoes are large shields with total volumes of ∼11 km 3 each. Tightly clustered paleomagnetic results at both volcanoes, when coupled with analysis of geomagnetic secular variation, suggest that each edifice was built in only a few centuries, possibly in as little time as 50–90 years, indicating sub-century to century scale eruptive durations for two sizeable regional shield volcanoes within the Cascades Arc. These rapidly built shield volcanoes are substantially larger than typically defined monogenetic volcanoes, yet both are wholly formed within a single ‘episode’ at the limits of temporal resolution. Paleomagnetic methods provide a high-resolution tool that can be applied to understanding the tempo of regional volcanism in arcs.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2011

Experimental study of near-field entrainment of moderately overpressured jets

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments have been conducted to study the velocity flow fields in the developing flow region of high-speed jets. These velocity distributions were examined to determine the entrained mass flow over a range of geometric and flow conditions, including overpressured cases up to an overpressure ratio of 2.83. In the region near the jet exit, all measured flows exhibited the same entrainment up until the location of the first shock when overpressured. Beyond this location, the entrainment was reduced with increasing overpressure ratio, falling to approximately 60 of the magnitudes seen when subsonic. Since entrainment ratios based on lower speed, subsonic results are typically used in one-dimensional volcanological models of plume development, the current analytical methods will underestimate the likelihood of column collapse. In addition, the concept of the entrainment ratio normalization is examined in detail, as several key assumptions in this methodology do not apply when overpressured.

Journal of Fluids Engineering↗
USGS2021

Applications of bistatic radar to volcano topography – A review of 10 years of TanDEM-X

The TanDEM-X satellite mission has revolutionized DEM generation from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar. In addition to the primary objective of generating a consistent digital elevation model with global coverage and unprecedented accuracy, the mission has acquired time series of topographic data over several volcanoes, providing an excellent opportunity to test the use of this innovative dataset for volcano monitoring and research. In this article, we review the utilization of the single-pass TanDEM-X data for studying various kinds of volcanic activity, such as basaltic lava flows, the formation and destruction of lava domes and related pyroclastic density currents, and subsurface magma withdrawal and intrusion. We then consider the uses of these data for hazard assessment and forecasting. Our goal is to highlight the importance of timely and repeated topographic information in volcanology, and to suggest the development of future spaceborne bistatic synthetic aperture radar satellite missions, such as ESA's Earth Explorer 10 candidate mission, “Harmony.”

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗
USGS2020

High-resolution imaging of hydrothermal heat flux using optical and thermal Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry

Quantifying hydrothermal heat flux at meter-scale resolution over N0.25 km2 is required to bridge in-situ heat flux and satellite-based measurements. We advance a methodology that blends ground-based daytime optical and nighttime thermal infrared (TIR) imagery using Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry to map radiant hydrothermal heat flux over these scales at sites with low signal-to-noise ratios that would otherwise be difficult to characterize using, for example, unmanned aerial systems. The improved method uses a computerized telescopic mount to relocate and align daytime optical acquisitions with nighttime TIR imagery, thereby enabling TIR acquisition from multiple camera orientations positioned throughout a study area. This facilitates mapping of thermal features at sites of varying size and complexity and helps to ameliorate topographic occlusion effects and geometric distortions that can bias radiant hydrothermal heat flux estimates derived from the resulting orthorectified thermal maps. We assessed detection thresholds of this method at three sites across central California, which range in size, topography, and heat flux conditions. We found that blending of optical and thermal acquisitions successfully detected anomalous heat flux, even in cases where temperatures were only slightly greater than background. This approach might be applied to a variety of volcanic and hydrothermal systems to quantify the spatial distribution of heat flux, and how this may relate to factors such as the distribution of ground fractures and lava flow rheology.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2000

Historical eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768-1998

Information on Merapi eruptive activity is scattered and much is remotely located. A concise and well-documented summary of this activity has been long needed to assist researchers and hazard-mitigation efforts, and the aim of this paper is to synthesize information from the mid-1700s to the present. A descriptive chronology is given, with an abbreviated chronology in a table that summarizes events by year, assigns preliminary Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ratings and Hartmann classifications, and provides key references. The history of volcano monitoring is also outlined. The study reveals that a major difference in eruption style exists between the twentieth and nineteenth centuries, although the periodicity between larger events seems about the same. During the twentieth century, activity has comprised mainly the effusive growth of viscous lava domes and lava tongues, with occasional gravitational collapses of parts of oversteepened domes to produce the nue??es ardentes - commonly defined as "Merapi-type". In the 1800s, however, explosive eruptions of relatively large size occurred (to VEI 4), and some associated "fountain-collapse" nue??es ardentes were larger and farther reaching than any produced in the twentieth century. These events may also be regarded as typical eruptions for Merapi. The nineteenth century activity is consistent with the long-term pattern of one relatively large event every one or two centuries, based on the long-term eruptive record deduced by others from volcanic stratigraphy. It is uncertain whether or not a "recurrence-time" model continues to apply to Merapi, but if so, Merapi could soon be due for another large event and its occurrence with only modest (or inadequately appreciated) precursors could lead to a disaster unprecedented in Merapi's history because the area around the volcano is now much more densely populated.

Java, Merapi Volcano↗
USGS2015

Quantitative imaging of volcanic plumes — Results, needs, and future trends

Recent technology allows two-dimensional “imaging” of trace gas distributions in plumes. In contrast to older, one-dimensional remote sensing techniques, that are only capable of measuring total column densities, the new imaging methods give insight into details of transport and mixing processes as well as chemical transformation within plumes. We give an overview of gas imaging techniques already being applied at volcanoes (SO 2 cameras, imaging DOAS, FT-IR imaging), present techniques where first field experiments were conducted (LED-LIDAR, tomographic mapping), and describe some techniques where only theoretical studies with application to volcanology exist (e.g. Fabry–Pérot Imaging, Gas Correlation Spectroscopy, bi-static LIDAR). Finally, we discuss current needs and future trends in imaging technology.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2007

Monitoring and modeling ice-rock avalanches from ice-capped volcanoes: A case study of frequent large avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

Iliamna is an andesitic stratovolcano of the Aleutian arc with regular gas and steam emissions and mantled by several large glaciers. Iliamna Volcano exhibits an unusual combination of frequent and large ice-rock avalanches in the order of 1 ?? 106??m3 to 3 ?? 107??m3 with recent return periods of 2-4??years. We have reconstructed an avalanche event record for the past 45??years that indicates Iliamna avalanches occur at higher frequency at a given magnitude than other mass failures in volcanic and alpine environments. Iliamna Volcano is thus an ideal site to study such mass failures and its relation to volcanic activity. In this study, we present different methods that fit into a concept of (1) long-term monitoring, (2) early warning, and (3) event documentation and analysis of ice-rock avalanches on ice-capped active volcanoes. Long-term monitoring methods include seismic signal analysis, and space-and airborne observations. Landsat and ASTER satellite data was used to study the extent of hydrothermally altered rocks and surface thermal anomalies at the summit region of Iliamna. Subpixel heat source calculation for the summit regions where avalanches initiate yielded temperatures of 307 to 613??K assuming heat source areas of 1000 to 25??m2, respectively, indicating strong convective heat flux processes. Such heat flow causes ice melting conditions and is thus likely to reduce the strength at the base of the glacier. We furthermore demonstrate typical seismic records of Iliamna avalanches with rarely observed precursory signals up to two hours prior to failure, and show how such signals could be used for a multi-stage avalanche warning system in the future. For event analysis and documentation, space- and airborne observations and seismic records in combination with SRTM and ASTER derived terrain data allowed us to reconstruct avalanche dynamics and to identify remarkably similar failure and propagation mechanisms of Iliamna avalanches for the past 45??years. Simple avalanche flow modeling was able to reasonably replicate Iliamna avalanches and can thus be applied for hazard assessments. Hazards at Iliamna Volcano are low due to its remote location; however, we emphasize the transfer potential of the methods presented here to other ice-capped volcanoes with much higher hazards such as those in the Cascades or the Andes. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2022

Revisiting the depth distribution of seismicity before and after the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Hypocenter estimation at active volcanoes improves our understanding of their magmatic systems and indicates changing conditions at depth for continuously monitored volcanoes. The most active volcano in the Cascades Range, Mount St. Helens, has a multi-decadal earthquake catalog and it shows an apparent change in the depth distribution of seismicity before and after the 2004–2008 dome-building eruption and unrest sequence. We use two new resources to evaluate the accuracy of hypocenters and consequently the change in depth distribution of seismicity before and after the 2004–2008 eruption. First, we deployed a dense array of 136 three-component nodal seismographs for one month in 2017, including sub-arrays on the newly extruded dome and crater floor. Second, for events recorded during this month, we located their hypocenters using a three-dimensional (3D) wavefront-tracking location solver and a recently developed tomography model derived from active and passive source data. The relocated hypocenters are generally shallower and more concentrated beneath the crater compared to their catalog locations. The mean hypocenter movement from catalog locations is 2.86 km, with an averaged depth shift of 2.53 km upward. Comparison between 2017 hypocenters located using all of the available phase picks and those located using only the catalog picks from the permanent network suggests the improved hypocenters mostly resulted from the location solver and the 3D velocity model, with smaller changes due to the dense three-component array. Applying the same hypocenter estimation method to phase picks for all events from 1997 to 2004 and 2008–2021, we found a concentration of seismicity between sea level and ~ 1 km above it before and after the 2004–2008 eruption. The new results suggest that the seismogenic structure in the shallow magmatic system quickly re-equilibrated to its earlier state after the dome-building eruption.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Temperature profile around a basaltic sill intruded into wet sediments

The transfer of heat into wet sediments from magmatic intrusions or lava flows is not well constrained from field data. Such field constraints on numerical models of heat transfer could significantly improve our understanding of water–lava interactions. We use experimentally calibrated pollen darkening to measure the temperature profile around a basaltic sill emplaced into wet lakebed sediments. It is well known that, upon heating, initially transparent palynomorphs darken progressively through golden, brown, and black shades before being destroyed; however, this approach to measuring temperature has not been applied to volcanological questions. We collected sediment samples from established Miocene fossil localities at Clarkia, Idaho. Fossils in the sediments include pollen from numerous tree and shrub species. We experimentally calibrated changes in the color of Clarkia sediment pollen and used this calibration to determine sediment temperatures around a Miocene basaltic sill emplaced in the sediments. Results indicated a flat temperature profile above and below the sill, with T > 325 °C within 1 cm of the basalt-sediment contact, near 300 °C at 1–2 cm from the contact, and ~ 250 °C at 1 m from the sill contact. This profile suggests that heat transport in the sediments was hydrothermally rather than conductively controlled. This information will be used to test numerical models of heat transfer in wet sediments on Earth and Mars.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗