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The Lake Tahoe Basin Land Use Simulation Model

This U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report describes the final modeling product for the Tahoe Decision Support System project for the Lake Tahoe Basin funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and the U.S. Geological Survey's Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program. This research was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center. The purpose of this report is to describe the basic elements of the novel Lake Tahoe Basin Land Use Simulation Model, publish samples of the data inputs, basic outputs of the model, and the details of the Python code. The results of this report include a basic description of the Land Use Simulation Model, descriptions and summary statistics of model inputs, two figures showing the graphical user interface from the web-based tool, samples of the two input files, seven tables of basic output results from the web-based tool and descriptions of their parameters, and the fully functional Python code.

Open-File Report

Evolution of large body size in abalones (Haliotis): Patterns and implications

Kelps and other fleshy macroalgae - dominant reef-inhabiting organisms in cool - seasmay have radiated extensively following late Cenozoic polar cooling, thus triggering a chain of evolutionary change in the trophic ecology of nearshore temperate ecosystems. We explore this hypothesis through an analysis of body size in the abalones (Gastropoda; Haliotidae), a widely distributed group in modern oceans that displays a broad range of body sizes and contains fossil representatives from the late Cretaceous (60-75 Ma). Geographic analysis of maximum shell length in living abalones showed that small-bodied species, while most common in the Tropics, have a cosmopolitan distribution, whereas large-bodied species occur exclusively in cold-water ecosystems dominated by kelps and other macroalgae. The phylogeography of body size evolution in extant abalones was assessed by constructing a molecular phylogeny in a mix of large and small species obtained from different regions of the world. This analysis demonstrates that small body size is the plesiomorphic state and largeness has likely arisen at least twice. Finally, we compiled data on shell length from the fossil record to determine how (slowly or suddenly) and when large body size arose in the abalones. These data indicate that large body size appears suddenly at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary. Our findings support the view that fleshy-algal dominated ecosystems radiated rapidly in the coastal oceans with the onset of the most recent glacial age. We conclude with a discussion of the broader implications of this change. ?? 2005 The Paleontological Society. All rights reserved.

Paleobiology

Land-cover change in the Lower Mississippi Valley, 1973-2000

The Land Cover Trends is a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary United States land-use and land-cover change. The project is coordinated by the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in conjunction with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using the EPA Level III ecoregions as the geographic framework, scientists process geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 were processed to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into four temporal periods: 1973 to1980, 1980 to 1986, 1986 to 1992, 1992 to 2000 and overall from 1973 to 2000. General land-cover classes for these periods were interpreted from Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize and evaluate land-cover change using a modified Anderson Land Use Land Cover Classification System (Anderson and others, 1976) for image interpretation. The rates of land-cover change were estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images were used to interpret land-cover change. The sample block data then were incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. These change statistics are applicable for different levels of scale, including total change for the individual sample blocks and change estimates for the entire ecoregion.

Open-File Report

Land-cover change in the Ozark Highlands, 1973-2000

Led by the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Land-Cover Trends Project was initiated in 1999 and aims to document the types, geographic distributions, and rates of land-cover change on a region by region basis for the conterminous United States, and to determine some of the key drivers and consequences of the change (Loveland and others, 2002). For 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 land-cover maps derived from the Landsat series are classified by visual interpretation, inspection of historical aerial photography and ground survey, into 11 land-cover classes. The classes are defined to capture land cover that is discernable in Landsat data. A stratified probability-based sampling methodology undertaken within the 84 Omernik Level III Ecoregions (Omernik, 1987) was used to locate the blocks, with 9 to 48 blocks per ecoregion. The sampling was designed to enable a statistically robust 'scaling up' of the sample-classification data to estimate areal land-cover change within each ecoregion (Loveland and others, 2002; Stehman and others, 2005). At the time of writing, approximately 90 percent of the 84 conterminous United States ecoregions have been processed by the Land-Cover Trends Project. Results from these completed ecoregions illustrate that across the conterminous United States there is no single profile of land-cover/land-use change, rather, there are varying pulses affected by clusters of change agents (Loveland and others, 2002). Land-Cover Trends Project results for the conterminous United States to-date are being used for collaborative environmental change research with partners such as; the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The strategy has also been adapted for use in a NASA global deforestation initiative, and elements of the project design are being used in the North American Carbon Program's assessment of forest disturbance.

Open-File Report

Land-cover change in the central irregular plains, 1973-2000

Spearheaded by the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Land Cover Trends is a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary United States land-use and land-cover change. Using the EPA Level III ecoregions as the geographic framework, scientists process geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000 and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes for these periods were interpreted from Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land Use Land Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The rates of land-cover change are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary data such as census statistics and published literature are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. These change statistics are applicable for different levels of scale, including total change for the individual sample blocks and change estimates for the entire ecoregion. The results illustrate that there is no single profile of land-cover change but instead point to geographic variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to various factors including environmental, technological, and socioeconomic.

Open-File Report

To the National Map and beyond

Scientific understanding, technology, and social, economic, and environmental conditions have driven a rapidly changing demand for geographic information, both digital and analog. For more than a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing innovative partnerships with other government agencies and private industry to produce and distribute geographic information efficiently; increase activities in remote sensing to ensure ongoing monitoring of the land surface; and develop new understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface change. These activities are now contributing to a more robust set of geographic information called The National Map (TNM). The National Map is designed to provide an up-to-date, seamless, horizontally and vertically integrated set of basic digital geographic data, a frequent monitoring of changes on the land surface, and an understanding of the condition of the Earth's surface and many of the processes that shape it. The USGS has reorganized its National Mapping Program into three programs to address the continuum of scientific activities-describing (mapping), monitoring, understanding, modeling, and predicting. The Cooperative Topographic Mapping Program focuses primarily on the mapping and revision aspects of TNM. The National Map also includes results from the Land Remote Sensing and Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Programs that provide continual updates, new insights, and analytical tools. The National Map is valuable as a framework for current research, management, and operational activities. It also provides a critical framework for the development of distributed, spatially enabled decision support systems.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science

Land-Cover Trends of the Central Basin and Range Ecoregion

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends research project is focused on understanding the amounts, rates, trends, causes, and implications of contemporary land-use and land-cover (LU/LC) change in the United States. This project is supported by the USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). LU/LC change is a pervasive process that modifies landscape characteristics and affects a broad range of socioeconomic, biologic, and hydrologic systems. Understanding the impacts and feedbacks of LU/LC change on environmental systems requires an understanding of the rates, patterns, and driving forces of past, present, and future LU/LC change. The objectives of the Land Cover Trends project are to (1) determine and describe the amount, rates, and trends of contemporary LU/LC change by ecoregion for the period 1973-2000 for the conterminous United States, (2) document the causes, driving forces, and implications of change, and (3) synthesize individual ecoregion results into a national assessment of LU/LC change. The Land Cover Trends research team includes staff from the USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, Eastern Geographic Science Center, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center, and the Western Geographic Science Center. Other partners include researchers at South Dakota State University, University of Southern Mississippi, and State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. This report presents an assessment of LU/LC change in the Central Basin and Range ecoregion for the period 1973-2000. The Central Basin and Range ecoregion is one of 84 Level-III ecoregions as defined by the Environmental Protection Agency. Ecoregions have served as a spatial framework for environmental resource management and to denote areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of biotic and abiotic phenomena including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The established Land Cover Trends methodology generates estimates of LU/LC change using a probability sampling approach and change-detection analysis of thematic land-cover images derived from Landsat satellite imagery.

Scientific Investigations Report

Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973-2000

Project Background: The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-use and land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: (1) develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for measuring regional land-cover change across the United States, (2) characterize the types, rates and temporal variability of change for a 30-year period, (3) document regional driving forces and consequences of change, and (4) prepare a national synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999). Using the 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) as the geographic framework, geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 were processed and analyzed to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000, and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes such as water, developed, grassland/shrubland, and agriculture for these periods were interpreted from Landsat MSS, TM, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land-Use Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The interpretation of these land-cover classes complement the program objective of looking at land-use change with cover serving as a surrogate for land use. The land-cover change rates are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary data such as census statistics and published literature are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. For example, the scalar statistics can show the spatial extent of change per cover type with time, as well as the land-cover transformations from one land-cover type to another type occurring with time. Field data of the sample blocks include direct measurements of land cover, particularly ground-survey data collected for training and validation of image classifications (Loveland and others, 2002). The field experience allows for additional observations of the character and condition of the landscape, assistance in sample block interpretation, ground truthing of Landsat imagery, and helps determine the driving forces of change identified in an ecoregion. Management and maintenance of field data, beyond initial use for training and validation of image classifications, is important as improved methods for image classification are developed, and as present-day data become part of the historical legacy for which studies of land-cover change in the future will depend (Loveland and others, 2002). The results illustrate that there is no single profile of land-cover change; instead, there is significant geographic variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to the resource potential created by various environmental, technological, and socioeconomic factors.

Open-File Report

The U.S. Geological Survey cartographic and geographic information science research activities 2006-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produces geospatial databases and topographic maps for the United States of America. A part of that mission includes conducting research in geographic information science (GIScience) and cartography to support mapping and improve the design, quality, delivery, and use of geospatial data and topographic maps. The Center of Excellence for Geospatial Information Science (CEGIS) was established by the USGS in January 2006 as a part of the National Geospatial Program Office. CEGIS (http://cegis.usgs.gov) evolved from a team of cartographic researchers at the Mid-Continent Mapping Center. The team became known as the Cartographic Research group and was supported by the Cooperative Topographic Mapping, Geographic Analysis and Monitoring, and Land Remote Sensing programs of the Geography Discipline of the USGS from 1999-2005. In 2006, the Cartographic Research group and its projects (http://carto-research.er.usgs.gov/) became the core of CEGIS staff and research. In 2006, CEGIS research became focused on The National Map (http://nationalmap.gov).

Cartography and Geographic Information Science

Using land-cover data to understand effects of agricultural and urban development on regional water quality

The Land-Cover Trends project is a collaborative effort between the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to understand the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary land-use and land-cover change in the United States. The data produced from this research can lead to an enriched understanding of the drivers of future landuse change, effects on environmental systems, and any associated feedbacks. USGS scientists are using the EPA Level III ecoregions as the geographic framework to process geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. General land-cover classes for these periods were interpreted from Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize and evaluate land-cover change using a modified Anderson Land-Use/Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation.

General Information Product

Natural resource inventory and monitoring for Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas—An assessment of needs and opportunities in northern Mongolia

Between 1997 and 2011, Mongolia established three specially protected areas in the north-central part of the country to protect various high-value resources. These areas are jointly referred to as the Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas. In accordance with the goals of the draft general management plan, this report identifies options for initiating an inventory and monitoring program for the three protected areas. Together, the three areas comprise over 1.5 million hectares of mountainous terrain west of Lake Hovsgol and bordering the Darkhad Valley. The area supports numerous rare ungulates, endangered fish, and over 40 species of threatened plants. Illegal mining, illegal logging, and poaching pose the most immediate threats to resources. As a first step, a review of published literature would inform natural resource management at the Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas because it would inform other inventories. Vegetation classification and mapping also would inform other inventory efforts because the process incorporates geographic analysis to identify environmental gradients, fine-scale sampling that captures species composition and structure, and landscape-scale results that represent the variety and extent of habitats for various organisms. Mapping using satellite imagery reduces the cost per hectare. Following a determination of existing knowledge, field surveys of vertebrates and vascular plants would serve to build species lists and fill in gaps in existing knowledge. For abiotic resources, a focus on monitoring air quality, evaluating and monitoring water quality, and assembling and storing weather data would provide information for correlating resource response status with changing environmental conditions. Finally, we identify datasets that, if incorporated into a geographic information system, would inform resource management. They include political boundaries, infrastructure, topography, surficial geology, hydrology, fire history, and soils. In terms of tracking high-value resources, vegetation monitoring at the plot scale would provide a basis for detecting change in such characteristics as plant species composition, vegetation structure, and productivity that are associated with landscape-scale factors such as climate change or biotic interactions. Continued population monitoring of rare ungulates, particularly argali or wild sheep ( Ovis ammon ), would provide information on how populations are responding to natural and anthropogenic stressors. Siberian taimen ( Hucho taimen ) also is an important monitoring target given ongoing threats of poaching and climate change.

Ulaan Taiga Specially Protected Areas

Development and analysis of regional curves for streams in the non-urban valley and ridge physiographic province, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia

Regression relations for bankfull stream characteristics based on drainage area (often called 'regional curves') are used in natural stream channel design to verify field determinations of bankfull discharge and stream channel characteristics. Bankfull stream characteristics were assessed for stream reaches at 41 streamflow-gaging stations in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. Data collected included bankfull cross-sectional geometry, flood plain geometry, and longitudinal profile data. In addition, particle-size distributions of streambed material were determined and data on basin characteristics were compiled for each reach. Regional curves were developed for bankfull cross-sectional area, width, and discharge with R2 values of 0.95, 0.89, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. Examination of the regional curves residuals indicates that there is more variability in bankfull cross-sectional area, width, and discharge for smaller streams than for larger streams. In contrast, there is more variability for bankfull mean depth for larger streams than for smaller streams. Geographic analysis of regional curve residuals indicated that there were no further subdivisions within the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in the three-state study area for which individual sets of regional curves should be developed. In addition, two separate sets of regional curves were developed with data from the 41 sites to examine potential differences in the relations between the southern (n = 9) and central (n = 32) sections of the province. There were differences in slope and intercept between the two bankfull discharge test relations and a difference in intercept for the width test relations at the 95-percent confidence level. However, the results of this analysis were inconclusive and therefore one set of regional curves for the study area is presented in this report. The regional curves were compared to regression models developed from similar data collected in the Pennsylvania and Maryland portions of the province. No statistical difference in the slope or intercept of regression lines of the three data sets was detected for any of the four bankfull parameters at the 95-percent confidence level. Basin characteristics such as percentage of basin forested (percent forested) and percentage of basin underlain by carbonate bedrock (percent carbonate) were analyzed to evaluate variability among regression points. Multivariate regression relations including explanatory terms for percent carbonate and drainage area produced higher R2 values than the regional curves for bankfull cross-sectional area (R2 = 0.95), bankfull width (R2 = 0.92), and bankfull discharge (R2 = 0.93). There was no improvement for the bankfull mean depth relation from adding the additional term. Inclusion of the other basin characteristics in multivariate relations did not improve the regression models. Regression models developed for the 1.5-year discharge for all streamflow-gaging stations with peak discharge data throughout Virginia (n = 486) and throughout the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in Virginia (n = 147) were compared to the regional curve relating bankfull discharge to drainage area. A similar trend in decreasing variability with increasing drainage area was observed for the 1.5-year discharge for all stations in Virginia . This indicates that the change in variability observed in the discharge regional curve likely would exist with a larger data set. There was no statistical difference at the 95-percent confidence level between regression relations for the southern section of the province (n = 40) and the central section (n = 107). This finding supports maintaining only one set of regional curves for the study area. Not all of the variability in the regional curves is explained by drainage area alone. Causes of the remaining variability likely vary among study sites. Users of the regional curves developed in this study are cautioned that, because of inherent variability in hydrologic data, a thorough analysis of the fluvial system and the drainage basin is necessary when evaluating the bankfull characteristics of a stream.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia

An evaluation of the individual components and accuracies associated with the determination of impervious area

The percentage of impervious surface area in a watershed has been widely recognized as a key indicator of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem condition. Although the use of the impervious indicator is widespread, there is currently no consistent or mutually accepted method of computing impervious area and the approach of various commonly used techniques varies widely. Further, we do not have reliable information on the components of impervious surfaces, which would be critical in any future planning attempts to remediate problems associated with impervious surface coverage. In cooperation with the USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program (GAM) and The National Map, and the EPA Landscape Ecology Program, this collaborative research project utilized very high resolution imagery and GIS techniques to map and quantify the individual components of total impervious area in six urban/suburban watersheds in different parts of the United States. These data were served as ground reference, or "truth," for the evaluation for four techniques used to compute impervious area. The results show some important aspects about the component make-up of impervious cover and the variability of methods commonly used to compile this critical emerging indicator of ecosystem condition.

GIScience and Remote Sensing

Distance to nearest road in the conterminous United States

The USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) program has developed a national, high resolution dataset that gives the distance to the nearest road every 30 meters across the conterminous 48 states. This work provides the first unified national picture of roadless space, vehicular accessibility, and intensity of road construction. The new dataset is the first member of the National Overview Road Metrics (NORM) family of road related indicators. This indicator measures straight-line or Euclidean distance (ED) to the nearest road, and is given the compound name NORM ED. NORM ED data can be viewed and downloaded from the transportation section of the web viewer for The National Map , http://nationalmap.usgs.gov. The full-resolution dataset for the conterminous states is made of 8.7 billion values.

Fact Sheet

National Urbanization Monitoring Assessment (NUMA)

A core geographic science element of the U.S. Geological Survey's Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program is to monitor land-surface change for the Nation through time. The Nation's land surface is dynamically evolving and transitioning in response to natural and human processes. The need to understand the transformations and locations where changes are taking place, their underlying causes, and the rate at which the transitions are occurring is fundamental to the health and viability of the Nation's natural and developed environments.

Fact Sheet

Geographic Research in the USGS Western Region

The two geography research programs of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Land Remote Sensing and Geographic Analysis and Monitoring, have very strong relevance to the USGS mission and science strategy. In the western United States, the particular niche of these geography programs is in connecting USGS science to people and communities. Reports from the National Academy of Sciences and other organizations invariably encourage the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to ensure the quality of its science while finding ways to make it more relevant to important societal issues. Much of the geography research conducted in the USGS Western Region does exactly that. In Menlo Park, California, the geography research team is focused on developing tools and techniques to help people assess risk from natural hazards and environmental impacts. In Flagstaff and Tucson, Arizona, geography scientists explore new ways to use remote sensing to help communities deal with environmental issues.

Fact Sheet

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center-Fiscal Year 2009 Annual Report

The Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) facility focused on providing science and imagery to better understand our Earth. As part of the USGS Geography Discipline, EROS contributes to the Land Remote Sensing (LRS) Program, the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program, and the National Geospatial Program (NGP), as well as our Federal partners and cooperators. The work of the Center is shaped by the Earth sciences, the missions of our stakeholders, and implemented through strong program and project management and application of state-of-the-art information technologies. Fundamentally, EROS contributes to the understanding of a changing Earth through 'research to operations' activities that include developing, implementing, and operating remote sensing based terrestrial monitoring capabilities needed to address interdisciplinary science and applications objectives at all levels-both nationally and internationally. The Center's programs and projects continually strive to meet and/or exceed the changing needs of the USGS, the Department of the Interior, our Nation, and international constituents. The Center's multidisciplinary staff uses their unique expertise in remote sensing science and technologies to conduct basic and applied research, data acquisition, systems engineering, information access and management, and archive preservation to address the Nation's most critical needs. Of particular note is the role of EROS as the primary provider of Landsat data, the longest comprehensive global land Earth observation record ever collected. This report is intended to provide an overview of the scientific and engineering achievements and illustrate the range and scope of the activities and accomplishments at EROS throughout fiscal year (FY) 2009. Additional information concerning the scientific, engineering, and operational achievements can be obtained from the scientific papers and other documents published by EROS staff. We welcome comments and follow-up questions on any aspect of this Annual Report and invite any of our customers or partners to contact us at their convenience. To communicate with us, or for more information about EROS, contact: Communications and Outreach, USGS EROS Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, South Dakota 57198, jsnelson@usgs.gov, http://eros.usgs.gov/.

Open-File Report

Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

California