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Using resilience and resistance concepts to manage threats to sagebrush ecosystems, Gunnison sage-grouse, and Greater sage-grouse in their eastern range: A strategic multi-scale approach

This report provides a strategic approach developed by a Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies interagency working group for conservation of sagebrush ecosystems, Greater sage-grouse, and Gunnison sage-grouse. It uses information on (1) factors that influence sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative invasive annual grasses and (2) distribution and relative abundance of sage-grouse populations to address persistent ecosystem threats, such as invasive annual grasses and wildfire, and land use and development threats, such as oil and gas development and cropland conversion, to develop effective management strategies. A sage-grouse habitat matrix links relative resilience and resistance of sagebrush ecosystems with modeled sage-grouse breeding habitat probabilities to help decisionmakers assess risks and determine appropriate management strategies at both landscape and site scales. Areas for targeted management are assessed by overlaying matrix components with Greater sage-grouse Priority Areas for Conservation and Gunnison sage-grouse critical habitat and linkages, breeding bird concentration areas, and specific habitat threats. Decision tools are discussed for determining the suitability of target areas for management and the most appropriate management actions. A similar approach was developed for the Great Basin that was incorporated into the Federal land use plan amendments and served as the basis of a Bureau of Land Management Fire and Invasives Assessment Tool, which was used to prioritize sage-grouse habitat for targeted management activities.

General Technical Report

Managing effects of drought and other water resource challenges in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

This is a Cooperator Report. As such, there is no specific abstract. The physical, ecological, and social environments of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States are extremely diverse. Alaska ranges from the Arctic Ocean and the very cold, dry environments of the North Slope to the cool and very rainy coastal North Pacific region of Southeast Alaska. Most precipitation falls as snow at higher elevations. In Arctic Alaska, average annual temperature is 14.6 F, and average annual precipitation is 11 inches. By contrast, in Southeast Alaska, average annual temperature is 35.8 F, and annual average precipitation is 143 inches. The PNW, defined here as Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, ranges from the Pacific Coast (annual precipitation of 200 inches) to interior semi-arid regions (annual precipitation of 8 inches). Precipitation patterns in the PNW are strongly governed by orographic phenomena, with high, persistent snowpack in the higher mountains (e.g., record annual snowfall of 1,130 in at Mount Baker, Washington in 1999-2000). Ecosystems in the PNW include productive temperate coniferous forests near the Pacific coast and along the (wet) west slope of the Cascade Range, less productive mixed-conifer forest along the (dry) east slope of the Cascades and in interior mountain ranges, and sagebrush-steppe and shrublands at lower elevations in much of the interior and mountain valleys. Large rivers and thousands of smaller tributaries form an extensive network of riparian, wetland, and estuarine systems that provide both critical hydrologic function and biological diversity at broad and fine spatial scales. Although Alaska and the Pacific Northwest differ in important physical, ecological, and social features, the importance of natural resources is evident in both regions. Water is important for wildlife and people. Water provides critical habitat for salmon, which are culturally and economically valuable species. Timber production has declined in recent decades. Recreation has emerged as a major revenue source.

Alaska, Oregon, Washington

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and natural resource professionals familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show that the mean annual temperature has increased across the region by 2.4 °F, with even greater warming during winter. Precipitation patterns also changed during this time, with a slight trend toward greater annual precipitation and a substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Projected climate trends using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3 to 8 °F for the assessment area by 2100. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in fall and winter precipitation, and spring and summer precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many northern and boreal species, including balsam fir, red spruce, and black spruce, may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for eight forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process with 20 scientists and resource managers from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Montane spruce-fir, low-elevation spruce-fir, and lowland mixed conifer forests were determined to be the most vulnerable communities. Central hardwoods, transition hardwoods, and pitch pine-scrub oak forests were perceived as having lower vulnerability to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent animals and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Chapter 6: Climate change, wildlife, and wildlife habitats in the Oregon Coast Range

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on wildlife species within the Oregon Coast Adaptation Partnership (OCAP) assessment area, although the direction and magnitude of effects are likely to vary across species. Increased mean and extreme temperatures, especially during summer, may cause shifts in plant and animal species ranges, reduce habitat for some temperature-sensitive wildlife, alter plant phenology and the timing of available food resources, and affect species interactions (e.g., predation, competition). Altered timing of precipitation, summer drought, loss of fog, increased flooding events, earlier snowmelt, and rising sea level may reduce plant productivity, increase tree mortality, shift plant species composition, and lead to reduced wildlife habitat and habitat quality for some forests, riparian areas, wetlands, meadows, estuaries, and beaches. In addition, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire and insect outbreaks may reduce the extent of late-successional forest, reduce habitat connectivity, and increase the spread of invasive species. The biggest change expected for the assessment area is an increase in area where climatic conditions favor coastal mixed forest and a large reduction in area favoring montane conifer forest. Although actual changes in forest types may not necessarily occur by the end of the 21st century, climate change may add physiological and behavioral stress to wildlife. Some wildlife species will be able to persist in place and adapt to new conditions; some may be able to migrate to find suitable habitat; and some may be greatly reduced or extirpated from the assessment area or even go extinct. Shifts in major tree and shrub species will play a major role in food, den, and cover availability for wildlife. Rising sea level will reduce low-elevation habitats along the coast. An increase in the frequency of high-severity weather events will increase frequency and magnitude of flooding, including debris flow events. Coupled with increased temperatures during summer, this may reduce or fragment important ecosystems for aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Evaluation of the vulnerabilities of nine wildlife species based on literature reviews suggests that each species has life-history attributes that can lead to resilience or vulnerability to climate change effects. Depending on long-term objectives, several broad adaptation strategies focus on protecting refugia, establishing redundant wildlife strongholds with large-scale connectivity, and promoting structural and biological complexity.

Oregon

An assessment the effects of human-caused air pollution on resources within the interior Columbia River basin

An assessment of existing and potential impacts to vegetation, aquatics, and visibility within the Columbia River basin due to air pollution was conducted as part of the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project. This assessment examined the current situation and potential trends due to pollutants such as ammonium, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, particulates, carbon, and ozone. Ecosystems and resources at risk are identified, including certain forests, lichens, cryptogamic crusts, high elevation lakes and streams, arid lands, and class I areas. Current monitoring data are summarized and air pollution sources identified. The assessment also includes a summary of data gaps and suggestions for future research and monitoring related to air pollution and its effects on resources in the interior Columbia River basin.

General Technical Report

Assessing the effects of fire disturbances on ecosystems: A scientific agenda for research and management

A team of fire scientists and resource managers convened 17-19 April 1996 in Seattle, Washington, to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems. Objectives of this workshop were to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations included a series of numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and responses focusing on (1) links among fire effects, fuels, and climate; (2) fire as a large-scale disturbance; (3) fire-effects modeling structures; and (4) managerial concerns, applications, and decision support. At the present time, understanding of fire effects and the ability to extrapolate fire effects knowledge to large spatial scales are limited, because most data have been collected at small spatial scales for specific applications. Although we clearly need more large-scale fire-effects data, it will be more expedient to concentrate efforts on improving and linking existing models that simulate fire effects in a georeferenced format while integrating empirical data as they become available. A significant component of this effort should be improved communication between modelers and managers to develop modeling tools to use in a planning context. Another component of this modeling effort should improve our ability to predict the interactions of fire and potential climatic change at very large spatial scales. The priority issues and approaches described here provide a template for fire science and fire management programs in the next decade and beyond.

General Technical Report

Elk response to the La Mesa fire and current status in the Jemez Mountains

Faunal remains in local archeological sites and historic information suggest that elk populations in the Jemez Mountains were low from ca. 1200 A.D. through ca. 1900 A.D., when they were extirpated from this region. Elk were reintroduced to the Jemez country in 1948 and 1964- 1965, and their population apparently grew exponentially, reaching 1000 animals in the 1970's and about 7000 by 1991. Elk populations in Bandelier National Monument and adjoining areas increased rapidly after the 1977 La Mesa Fire. Winter use by elk in the La Mesa Fire area, centered on Bandelier, grew from about 100 animals in .1978 to around 1500 elk by 1992. The dramatic increase in the Bandelier elk herd (an annual growth rate of 21.3% and a 3.6 year population doubling time) was due in part to the creation of about 6000 hectares of grassy winter range in and around the park by the La Mesa Fire. Some of this local population increase reflects concentration of elk into this favorable wintering habitat from surrounding portions of the Jemez Mountains. Existing data are inadequate to determine whether elk populations are still growing rapidly in the Jemez Mountains. While annual aerial surveys since 1990 in Bandelier reveal no clear population trend, a variety of observations demonstrate increasing elk use of lower elevation areas. Negative resource impacts from today's high elk populations are beginning to be widely noted across the Jemez Mountains, especially in high-use portions of the Bandelier National Monument area. Affected resources range from plant communities to soils and even archeological sites. Given the large uncertainties associated with the current data on elk populations, care should be taken to avoid further population increases until the resource impacts of this new phenomenon (large numbers of elk) can be identified, desirable population levels identified (based to a significant degree upon ecological information and resource carrying capacities, as well as social considerations), and appropriate cooperative management strategies implemented.

General Technical Report

Fire history, effects and management in southern Nevada

Fire can be both an ecosystem stressor (Chapter 2) and a critical ecosystem process, depending on when, where, and under what conditions it occurs on the southern Nevada landscape. Fire can also pose hazards to human life and property, particularly in the wildland/urban interface (WUI). The challenge faced by land managers is to prevent fires from occurring where they are likely to threaten ecosystem integrity or human developments, while allowing fires to occur where they will provide ecosystem benefits. The Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP) Science and Research Strategy summarizes this desired outcome with Sub-goal 1.1, which is to manage wildland fire to sustain Southern Nevada’s ecosystems (table 1.3; Chapter 1). This chapter provides information that will help land managers develop strategies to achieve this goal. It begins with a background section on fire history, spatial and temporal patterns of fire, and fire effects for the major ecosystem types of southern Nevada, (table 1.1; Chapter 1). Potential fire management actions are then discussed, the overall implications of the information to fire management are summarized, and the major knowledge gaps are described.

Nevada

Fire in eastern ecosystems

Prior to Euro-American settlement, fire was a ubiquitous force across most of the Eastern United States. Fire regimes spanned a time-scale from chronic to centuries. Fire severity varied from benign to extreme (fig. 1-2). Today, fire is still a major force on the landscape. In some ecosystems fire stabilizes succession at a particular sere, while in others, succession is set back to pioneer species. The wide range in fire regimes coupled with elevation and moisture gradients produce a myriad of plant communities that continually change over time in both stature and composition, although it is not uncommon for the major species to remain dominant. Discussion is primarily about major vegetation types, for example, oak-hickory. However, some minor types such as spruce-fir and Table Mountain pine are also covered. Vegetation types are discussed under the most representative fire regime type, recognizing that some vegetation types overlap two fire regime types (table 4-1).

General Technical Report

2019 Forest Service–NASA Joint Applications Workshop: Satellite data to support natural resource management: A framework for aligning NASA products with land management agency needs

In 2019, about 103 participants from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service (Forest Service), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other federal, private, and academic entities attended the Forest Service–NASA Joint Applications Workshop. The objective of this workshop was to increase awareness and understanding of the capabilities of NASA data products, and strengthen partnerships between NASA and the Forest Service. In this vein, the workshop sought to identify opportunities for collaboration between the Forest Service and NASA on the topics of (1) soil moisture and hydrology, (2) carbon emissions and flux, and (3) vegetation structure and function. Four key high-level opportunities for increased coordination and collaboration were identified including: (1) develop a strategic framework for collaboration and coordination; (2) establish working groups and engage in early adopter programs; (3) distill needs requirements and conduct feasibility studies; and (4) integrate tools and data. Although the workshop was conducted 4 years ago, the information is still highly relevant, since GTAC (Appendix B) and the SMAP, NISAR, ICESAT-2, CMS Programs are all still very active and numerous points of collaboration between the Forest Service and NASA have occurred.

General Technical Report

Streamside habitats in southern forested wetlands: Their role and implications for management

The value of streamside forests to fish and wildlife and the influence of forest management on their value have been recognized in a general sense for decades. However, in today’s climate of increasing environmental regulation and intensive forest management, there is need for more detailed understanding of the value of streamside forests to fish and wildlife. Dickson and Huntley (1987:38) described the problem well when they wrote that “quantitative data on the effects of riparian zones on wildlife populations are insufficient to enable wildlife managers to justify the retention of riparian zones in land-use plans on a biological and economical basis.” Due in large part to the passage of water pollution control legislation, as well as legislation mandating multiple-use management in our national forests, progress is being made. During the last l&15 years, a great deal of research has been directed at understanding the value and appropriate management of the riparian zone (Brouha and Parsons 1985). The vast majority of research on riparian habitats has been conducted in western forests and/or narrow zones in otherwise upland areas. Also, much of the work done in southern forested wetlands has applied to entire floodplain forests. In this paper, we review the literature on streamside habitats within southern forested wetlands and, for reasons described in the next section, we make a distinction between streamside forests and floodplain (or riparian) forests. We also discuss in less detail the value of streamside habitats within other southern forest types, such as pine or mixed pine-hardwood.

General Technical Report

Validation of behave fire behavior predictions in oak savannas

Prescribed fire is a valuable tool in the restoration and management of oak savannas. BEHAVE, a fire behavior prediction system developed by the United States Forest Service, can be a useful tool when managing oak savannas with prescribed fire. BEHAVE predictions of fire rate-of-spread and flame length were validated using four standardized fuel models: Fuel Model 1 (short grass), Fuel Model 2 (timber and grass), Fuel Model 3 (tall grass), and Fuel Model 9 (hardwood litter). Also, a customized oak savanna fuel model (COSFM) was created and validated. Results indicate that standardized fuel model 2 and the COSFM reliably estimate mean rate-of-spread (MROS). The COSFM did not appreciably reduce MROS variation when compared to fuel model 2. Fuel models 1, 3, and 9 did not reliably predict MROS. Neither the standardized fuel models nor the COSFM adequately predicted flame lengths. We concluded that standardized fuel model 2 should be used with BEHAVE when predicting fire rates-of-spread in established oak savannas.

General Technical Report

Point counts of birds: what are we estimating?

Point counts of birds are made for many reasons, including estimating local densities, determining population trends, assessing habitat preferences, and exploiting the activities of recreational birdwatchers. Problems arise unless there is a clear understanding of what point counts mean in terms of actual populations of birds. Criteria for conducting point counts depend strongly on the purposes to which they will be put. This paper provides a simple mathematical conceptualization of point counts and illustrates graphically some of the influences on them.

General Technical Report