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USGS2025

GIScience in the era of Artificial Intelligence: A research agenda towards Autonomous GIS

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five levels of autonomy, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modelling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, we emphasize that as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.

Annals of GIS↗

USGS2020

Precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) as part of an integrated hydrologic model for the Osage Nation, northeastern Oklahoma, 1915–2014

Executive Summary The Osage Nation lacks a comprehensive tribal water plan to describe the quality and quantity of water resources in the Osage Nation, a 2,304-square-mile (mi 2 ) area of rolling pastures, tallgrass prairie, and mixed woodlands in northeastern Oklahoma. A tribal water plan can be used to help manage the sustainable development of surface and groundwater resources, thereby helping to provide a better future for the Osage Nation and their neighbors, while preserving water resources for the benefit of the surrounding environment and future generations. To help meet these goals and contribute to increased knowledge of the quantity and quality of water resources and the hydrologic processes and factors affecting those resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Osage Nation began studies to evaluate the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Osage Nation. An important component of these studies is the development and application of numerical models to improve quantification and understanding of the hydrologic system. These models are needed to estimate and quantify the effects of historical and potential future water resource development for the Osage Nation. This report describes the development and application of a precipitation-runoff model, the Osage Nation watershed model (ONWM). The ONWM is needed as a component of the Osage Nation integrated hydrologic model (ONIHM). At the time of this study, the ONIHM was being developed using the USGS computer software MODFLOW-One Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM). The intended use of the ONIHM is to simulate all surface-water and groundwater components of the hydrologic system for a 2,905-mi 2 study area centered on the Osage Nation. The ONWM was developed using the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, version 4 (PRMS-IV) computer software, also referred to as PRMS in this report, for an 8,343-mi 2 study area in northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, centered on and including the areas of the Osage Nation and the ONIHM. The ONWM is to be used as part of the ONIHM to provide a direct coupling with spatially and temporally varying daily climate conditions affecting the ONIHM study area. As an integral part of the ONIHM, the ONWM (1) simulates the inflow boundary conditions from tributary basins in the region outside and surrounding the ONIHM area; (2) provides estimates of spatially and temporally distributed precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, recharge, and streamflow in the ONIHM area; and (3) provides a preliminary water budget for the ONIHM area and the surrounding region, including tributary drainage basins outside of and next to the ONIHM. The specific objectives of this study were to use the ONWM to (1) provide a systematic inventory of the historical distribution of water inflows from precipitation (rain or snow) falling on the land surface and flowing through the surface-water network, (2) provide a historical context of the variability and spatial and temporal distribution of these waters, and (3) provide estimates of water inflows and potential observations to the ONIHM. The application of the ONWM as a component of the ONIHM is needed for planned simulations using the ONIHM to improve the understanding of the hydrologic system and to develop a fully comprehensive water budget, including the use and movement of water across the landscape, in the surface-water network, and in groundwater aquifers under historical and potential future conditions.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2018

A snapshot of women of the U.S. Geological Survey in STEM and related careers

Introduction The term “STEM” has been used to group together the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics and to describe education and professions related to these fields. The professional fields connected to STEM education are thought of as engineering, medicine, and computer technology. Yet these professional fields are merely the tip of the iceberg. Numerous opportunities in these fields encompass environmental research. The possibilities range from predicting the next earthquake to saving polar bears from extinction to developing a vaccine for salmon measles. The science of natural systems is complex and often requires people from a variety of fields of expertise to make headway with a solution. To that end, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has long recognized the need for a diversity of STEM expertise to address the Nation’s environmental research needs and the vision to facilitate integration of these fields. We are team builders! In this book, we point out the many facets of research carried out by USGS STEM scientists in an effort to show career options and pathways not typically pursued. The women portrayed were selected by USGS associate and regional directors as representative of particular fields and to inspire future generations.

Circular↗

USGS2019

The future is now: Amplicon sequencing and sequence capture usher in the conservation genomics era

The genomics revolution has initiated a new era of population genetics where genome-wide data are frequently used to understand complex patterns of population structure and selection. However, the application of genomic tools to inform management and conservation has been somewhat rare outside a few well studied species. Fortunately, two recently developed approaches, amplicon sequencing and sequence capture, have the potential to significantly advance the field of conservation genomics. Here, amplicon sequencing refers to highly multiplexed PCR followed by high-throughput sequencing (e.g., GTseq), and sequence capture refers to using capture probes to isolate loci from reduced-representation libraries (e.g., Rapture). Both approaches allow sequencing of thousands of individuals at relatively low costs, do not require any specialized equipment for library preparation, and generate data that can be analyzed without sophisticated computational infrastructure. Here, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and provide a decision framework for geneticists who are looking to integrate these methods into their research programme. While it will always be important to consider the specifics of the biological question and system, we believe that amplicon sequencing is best suited for projects aiming to genotype <500 loci on many individuals (>1,500) or for species where continued monitoring is anticipated (e.g., long-term pedigrees). Sequence capture, on the other hand, is best applied to projects including fewer individuals or where >500 loci are required. Both of these techniques should smooth the transition from traditional genetic techniques to genomics, helping to usher in the conservation genomics era.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2021

Selection of random vibration theory procedures for the NGA-East project and ground-motion modeling

Traditional ground-motion models (GMMs) are used to compute pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) from future earthquakes and are generally developed by regression of PSA using a physics-based functional form. PSA is a relatively simple metric that correlates well with the response of several engineering systems and is a metric commonly used in engineering evaluations; however, characteristics of the PSA calculation make application of scaling factors dependent on the frequency content of the input motion, complicating the development and adaptability of GMMs. By comparison, Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) represents ground-motion amplitudes that are completely independent from the amplitudes at other frequencies, making them an attractive alternative for GMM development. Random vibration theory (RVT) predicts the peak response of motion in the time domain based on the FAS and a duration, and thus can be used to relate FAS to PSA. Using RVT to compute the expected peak response in the time domain for given FAS therefore presents a significant advantage that is gaining traction in the GMM field. This article provides recommended RVT procedures relevant to GMM development, which were developed for the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-East project. In addition, an orientation-independent FAS metric—called the effective amplitude spectrum (EAS)—is developed for use in conjunction with RVT to preserve the mean power of the corresponding two horizontal components considered in traditional PSA-based modeling (i.e., RotD50). The EAS uses a standardized smoothing approach to provide a practical representation of the FAS for ground-motion modeling, while minimizing the impact on the four RVT properties ( zeroth moment, m0 ; bandwidth parameter, δ ; frequency of zero crossings, fz ; and frequency of extrema, fe ). Although the recommendations were originally developed for NGA-East, they and the methodology they are based on can be adapted to become portable to other GMM and engineering problems requiring the computation of PSA from FAS.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2013

GEM Building Taxonomy (Version 2.0)

This report documents the development and applications of the Building Taxonomy for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The purpose of the GEM Building Taxonomy is to describe and classify buildings in a uniform manner as a key step towards assessing their seismic risk, Criteria for development of the GEM Building Taxonomy were that the Taxonomy be relevant to seismic performance of different construction types; be comprehensive yet simple; be collapsible; adhere to principles that are familiar to the range of users; and ultimately be extensible to non-buildings and other hazards. The taxonomy was developed in conjunction with other GEM researchers and builds on the knowledge base from other taxonomies, including the EERI and IAEE World Housing Encyclopedia, PAGER-STR, and HAZUS. The taxonomy is organized as a series of expandable tables, which contain information pertaining to various building attributes. Each attribute describes a specific characteristic of an individual building or a class of buildings that could potentially affect their seismic performance. The following 13 attributes have been included in the GEM Building Taxonomy Version 2.0 (v2.0): 1.) direction, 2.)material of the lateral load-resisting system, 3.) lateral load-resisting system, 4.) height, 5.) date of construction of retrofit, 6.) occupancy, 7.) building position within a block, 8.) shape of the building plan, 9.) structural irregularity, 10.) exterior walls, 11.) roof, 12.) floor, 13.) foundation system. The report illustrates the pratical use of the GEM Building Taxonomy by discussing example case studies, in which the building-specific characteristics are mapped directly using GEM taxonomic attributes and the corresponding taxonomic string is constructed for that building, with "/" slash marks separating attributes. For example, for the building shown to the right, the GEM Taxonomy string is: DX 1 /MUR+CLBRS+MOCL 2 /LWAL 3 / DY/MUR+CLBRS+MOCL/LWAL/YPRE:1939 4 /HEX:2 5 /RES 6 / 7 / 8 /IRRE 9 /10/RSH3+RWO2 11 /FW 12 / 13 / which can be read as (1) Direction = [DX or DY] (the building has the same lateral load-resisting system in both directions); (2) Material = [Unreinforced Masonry + solid fired clay bricks + cement: lime mortar]; (3) Lateral Load-Resisting System = [Wall]; (4) Date of construction = [pre-1939]; (5) Heaight = [exactly 2 storeys]; (6) Occupancy = [residential, unknown type]; (7) Building Position = [unknown = no entry]; (8) Shape of building plan = [unknown = no entry]; (9) Structural irregularity = [regular]; (10) Exterior walls = [unknown = no entry]; (11) Roof = [Shape: pitched and hipped, Roof covering: clay tiles, Roof system material: wood, Roof system type: wood trusses]; (12) Floor = [Floor system: Wood, unknown]; (13) Foundation = [unknown = no entry]. Mapping of GEM Building Taxonomy to selected taxonomies is included in the report -- for example, the above building would be referenced by previous structural taxonomies as: PAGER-STR as UFB or UFB4, by the World Housing Encyclopedia as 7 or 8 and by the European Macroseismic Scale (98) as M5. The Building Taxonomy data model is highly flexible and has been incorporated within a relational database architecture. Due to its ability to represent building typologies using a shorthand form, it is also possible to use the taxonomy for non-database applications, and we discuss possible application of adaptation for Building Information Modelling (BIM) systems, and for the insurance industry. The GEM Building Taxonomy was independently evaluated and tested by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), which received 217 TaxT reports from 49 countries, representing a wide range of building typologies, including single and multi-storey buildings, reinforced and unreinforced masonry, confined masonry, concrete, steel, wood, and earthern buildings used for residential, commercial, industrial, and educational occupancy. Based on these submissions and other feedback, the EERI team validated that the GEM Building Taxonomy is highly functional, robust and able to describe different buildings around the world. The GEM Building Taxonomy is accompanied by supplementary resources. All terms have been explained in a companion online Glossary, which provides both text and graphic descriptions. The Taxonomy is accompanied by TaxT, a computer application that enables a user record information about a building or a building typology using the attributes of the GEM Building Taxonomy v2.0. TaxT can generate a taxonomy string and enable a user to generate a report in PDF format which summarizes the attribute values (s)he has chosen as representative of the building typology under consideration. The report concludes with recommendations for future development of the GEM Building Taxonomy. Appendices provide the detailed GEM Building Taxonomy tables and additional resource, as well as mappings to other taxonomies.

GEM Technical Report↗

USGS2014

Base of principal aquifer for parts of the North Platte, South Platte, and Twin Platte Natural Resources Districts, western Nebraska

Water resources in the North and South Platte River valleys of Nebraska, including the valley of Lodgepole Creek, are critical to the social and economic health of the area, and for the recovery of threatened and endangered species in the Platte River Basin. Groundwater and surface water are heavily used resources, and uses are regulated in the study area. Irrigation is the dominant water use and, in most instances, is supplied by both groundwater and surface-water sources. The U.S. Geological Survey and its partners have collaborated to use airborne geophysical surveys for areas of the North and South Platte River valleys including the valley of Lodgepole Creek in western Nebraska. The objective of the surveys was to map the aquifers and underlying bedrock topography of selected areas to help improve the understanding of groundwater–surface-water relations to guide water-management decisions. This project was a cooperative study involving the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, the Twin Platte Natural Resources District, the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust. This report presents the interpreted base-of-aquifer surface for part of the area consisting of the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, and the Twin Platte Natural Resources District. The interpretations presented herein build on work done by previous researchers from 2008 to 2009 by incorporating additional airborne electromagnetic survey data collected in 2010 and additional test holes from separate, related studies. To make the airborne electromagnetic data useful, numerical inversion was used to convert the measured data into a depth-dependent subsurface resistivity model. An interpretation of the elevation and configuration of the base of aquifer was completed in a geographic information system that provided x, y, and z coordinates. The process of interpretation involved manually picking locations (base-of-aquifer elevations) on the displayed airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile by the project geophysicist, hydrologist, and geologist. These locations, or picks, of the base-of-aquifer elevation (typically the top of the Brule Formation of the White River Group) were then stored in a georeferenced database. The pick was made by comparing the inverted airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile to the lithologic descriptions and borehole geophysical logs from nearby test holes. The database of interpretive picks of the base-of-aquifer elevation was used to create primary input for interpolating the new base-of-aquifer contours. The automatically generated contours were manually adjusted based on the interpreted location of paleovalleys eroded into the base-of-aquifer surface and associated bedrock highs, many of which were unmapped before this study. When contours are overlain by the water-table surface, the saturated thickness of the aquifer can be computed, which allows an estimate of total water in storage. The contours of the base-of-aquifer surface presented in this report may be used as the lower boundary layer in existing and future groundwater-flow models. The integration of geophysical data into the contouring process facilitated a more continuous and spatially comprehensive view of the hydrogeologic framework.

Nebraska↗

USGS2021

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗

USGS2006

Analysis of sensitivity of simulated recharge to selected parameters for seven watersheds modeled using the precipitation-runoff modeling system

Recharge is a vital component of the ground-water budget and methods for estimating it range from extremely complex to relatively simple. The most commonly used techniques, however, are limited by the scale of application. One method that can be used to estimate ground-water recharge includes process-based models that compute distributed water budgets on a watershed scale. These models should be evaluated to determine which model parameters are the dominant controls in determining ground-water recharge. Seven existing watershed models from different humid regions of the United States were chosen to analyze the sensitivity of simulated recharge to model parameters. Parameter sensitivities were determined using a nonlinear regression computer program to generate a suite of diagnostic statistics. The statistics identify model parameters that have the greatest effect on simulated ground-water recharge and that compare and contrast the hydrologic system responses to those parameters. Simulated recharge in the Lost River and Big Creek watersheds in Washington State was sensitive to small changes in air temperature. The Hamden watershed model in west-central Minnesota was developed to investigate the relations that wetlands and other landscape features have with runoff processes. Excess soil moisture in the Hamden watershed simulation was preferentially routed to wetlands, instead of to the ground-water system, resulting in little sensitivity of any parameters to recharge. Simulated recharge in the North Fork Pheasant Branch watershed, Wisconsin, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to parameters related to evapotranspiration. Three watersheds were simulated as part of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Parameter sensitivities for the MOPEX watersheds, Amite River, Louisiana and Mississippi, English River, Iowa, and South Branch Potomac River, West Virginia, were similar and most sensitive to small changes in air temperature and a user-defined flow routing parameter. Although the primary objective of this study was to identify, by geographic region, the importance of the parameter value to the simulation of ground-water recharge, the secondary objectives proved valuable for future modeling efforts. The value of a rigorous sensitivity analysis can (1) make the calibration process more efficient, (2) guide additional data collection, (3) identify model limitations, and (4) explain simulated results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Revisiting Frazier's subdeltas: enhancing datasets with dimensionality, better to understand geologic systems

Scientific knowledge from the past century is commonly represented by two-dimensional figures and graphs, as presented in manuscripts and maps. Using today's computer technology, this information can be extracted and projected into three- and four-dimensional perspectives. Computer models can be applied to datasets to provide additional insight into complex spatial and temporal systems. This process can be demonstrated by applying digitizing and modeling techniques to valuable information within widely used publications. The seminal paper by D. Frazier, published in 1967, identified 16 separate delta lobes formed by the Mississippi River during the past 6,000 yrs. The paper includes stratigraphic descriptions through geologic cross-sections, and provides distribution and chronologies of the delta lobes. The data from Frazier's publication are extensively referenced in the literature. Additional information can be extracted from the data through computer modeling. Digitizing and geo-rectifying Frazier's geologic cross-sections produce a three-dimensional perspective of the delta lobes. Adding the chronological data included in the report provides the fourth-dimension of the delta cycles, which can be visualized through computer-generated animation. Supplemental information can be added to the model, such as post-abandonment subsidence of the delta-lobe surface. Analyzing the regional, net surface-elevation balance between delta progradations and land subsidence is computationally intensive. By visualizing this process during the past 4,500 yrs through multi-dimensional animation, the importance of sediment compaction in influencing both the shape and direction of subsequent delta progradations becomes apparent. Visualization enhances a classic dataset, and can be further refined using additional data, as well as provide a guide for identifying future areas of study.

Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies Tra↗

USGS2019

From the oceans to the cloud: Opportunities and challenges for data, models, computation and workflows

Advances in ocean observations and models mean increasing flows of data. Integrating observations between disciplines over spatial scales from regional to global presents challenges. Running ocean models and managing the results is computationally demanding. The rise of cloud computing presents an opportunity to rethink traditional approaches. This includes developing shared data processing workflows utilizing common, adaptable software to handle data ingest and storage, and an associated framework to manage and execute downstream modeling. Working in the cloud presents challenges: migration of legacy technologies and processes, cloud-to-cloud interoperability, and the translation of legislative and bureaucratic requirements for “on-premises” systems to the cloud. To respond to the scientific and societal needs of a fit-for-purpose ocean observing system, and to maximize the benefits of more integrated observing, research on utilizing cloud infrastructures for sharing data and models is underway. Cloud platforms and the services/APIs they provide offer new ways for scientists to observe and predict the ocean’s state. High-performance mass storage of observational data, coupled with on-demand computing to run model simulations in close proximity to the data, tools to manage workflows, and a framework to share and collaborate, enables a more flexible and adaptable observation and prediction computing architecture. Model outputs are stored in the cloud and researchers either download subsets for their interest/area or feed them into their own simulations without leaving the cloud. Expanded storage and computing capabilities make it easier to create, analyze, and distribute products derived from long-term datasets. In this paper, we provide an introduction to cloud computing, describe current uses of the cloud for management and analysis of observational data and model results, and describe workflows for running models and streaming observational data. We discuss topics that must be considered when moving to the cloud: costs, security, and organizational limitations on cloud use. Future uses of the cloud via computational sandboxes and the practicalities and considerations of using the cloud to archive data are explored. We also consider the ways in which the human elements of ocean observations are changing – the rise of a generation of researchers whose observations are likely to be made remotely rather than hands on – and how their expectations and needs drive research towards the cloud. In conclusion, visions of a future where cloud computing is ubiquitous are discussed.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2013

Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and decision making; and providing a web-based platform for community interactions (e.g., continuous virtual workshops).

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS1982

Test and calibration of the Digital World-Wide Standardized Seismograph

During the past decade there has been steady progress in the modernization of the global seismograph network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN) has been augmented by new stations with advanced instrumentation, including the Seismic Research Observatories (SRO) and the modified High-Gain Long-Period (ASRO) stations. One goal in the modernization effort has been to improve signal resolution in the long-period band. A second goal has been to generate a global digital data base to support contemporary computer-based analysis and research. In 1976, a Panel on Seismograph Networks was established by the Committee on Seismology of the National Academy of Sciences to review progress in network seismology and recommend actions that would lead to an improved global data base for seismology. One recommendation in the Panel report (Engdahl, 1977) called for upgrading selected WWSSN stations by the installation of digital recorders. This was viewed as an economical way of expanding the digital network, which had proven itself to be a very promising new tool for earthquake and explosion research. Funds for the development and assembly of 15 digital recorders were provided to the USGS by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and an ad Inoc panel of scientists was convened by the Committee on Seismology to advise the USGS on the selection of stations to be upgraded and on data recording requirements, A total of 19 digital World-Wide Standardized Seismograph (DWWSS) systems will be operational when all are installed. The additional systems were made available through purchase by the USGS and other organizations; for example, the University of Bergen purchased and installed a DWWSS-type recorder and agreed to furnish the USGS with the data. A list of operational and planned DWWSS network stations is given in Table 1.1. As one might expect, the digital recorder turned out to be somewhat more sophisticated than the original concept. It was decided to record three components of long-period data continuously, three components of intermediateperiod data in an event mode, and the vertical-component short-period data in and event mode (with the capability of adding short-period horizontal channels in the future). Special amplifiers were developed for use with the WWSS seismometers, and a 16-bit fixed-point analog-to-digital converter was chosen to provide increased resolution (as opposed to a 16-bit gain-ranged encoder). The microprocessor-based digital recording systems were developed and assembled at the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) and ASL-based technicians began installation at WWSSN stations in 1980. The current and proposed locations of the DWWSSN stations, together with other stations in the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN), are shown on the map in Figure 1.1. A system was operated at Albuquerque for about 18 months, serving as a test bed for evaluation studies. Although the network hardware has been available for some time, the installation of the DWWSSN has proceeded slowly. The National Science Foundation supported installation of six stations and the USGS is funding installation of most of the others; however, the network completion date is conjectural because of funding uncertainties. The DWWSSN stations are supported with supplies and technical assistance from ASL (subject to availability of funds). Data recorded on magnetic tapes are mailed to ASL where they are reviewed for quality, then merged with other GDSN station data on the network-day tapes. Hoffman (1980) provides a description of the network-day tape format. Zirbes and Buland (1981) have developed and published user software for reading and interpreting the day tapes. This report will serve several purposes. One is to provide nominal system transfer functions and calibration information that are needed in the analysis of DWWSSN data. A second purpose is to report on an evaluation of operating characteristics (calibration stability, noise levels, and linearity) that may limit the usefulness of the data and to determine if modifications may be needed to improve the data. It is not an exhaustive study in this respect. We continue to depend mostly on data user feedback to point out deficiencies and we solicit comments whenever anomalies are observed in the data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Earthcasting: Geomorphic forecasts for society

Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2016

The global Landsat archive: Status, consolidation, and direction

New and previously unimaginable Landsat applications have been fostered by a policy change in 2008 that made analysis-ready Landsat data free and open access. Since 1972, Landsat has been collecting images of the Earth, with the early years of the program constrained by onboard satellite and ground systems, as well as limitations across the range of required computing, networking, and storage capabilities. Rather than robust on-satellite storage for transmission via high bandwidth downlink to a centralized storage and distribution facility as with Landsat-8, a network of receiving stations, one operated by the U.S. government, the other operated by a community of International Cooperators (ICs), were utilized. ICs paid a fee for the right to receive and distribute Landsat data and over time, more Landsat data was held outside the archive of the United State Geological Survey (USGS) than was held inside, much of it unique. Recognizing the critical value of these data, the USGS began a Landsat Global Archive Consolidation (LGAC) initiative in 2010 to bring these data into a single, universally accessible, centralized global archive, housed at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The primary LGAC goals are to inventory the data held by ICs, acquire the data, and ingest and apply standard ground station processing to generate an L1T analysis-ready product. As of January 1, 2015 there were 5,532,454 images in the USGS archive. LGAC has contributed approximately 3.2 million of those images, more than doubling the original USGS archive holdings. Moreover, an additional 2.3 million images have been identified to date through the LGAC initiative and are in the process of being added to the archive. The impact of LGAC is significant and, in terms of images in the collection, analogous to that of having had two additional Landsat-5 missions. As a result of LGAC, there are regions of the globe that now have markedly improved Landsat data coverage, resulting in an enhanced capacity for mapping, monitoring change, and capturing historic conditions. Although future missions can be planned and implemented, the past cannot be revisited, underscoring the value and enhanced significance of historical Landsat data and the LGAC initiative. The aim of this paper is to report the current status of the global USGS Landsat archive, document the existing and anticipated contributions of LGAC to the archive, and characterize the current acquisitions of Landsat-7 and Landsat-8. Landsat-8 is adding data to the archive at an unprecedented rate as nearly all terrestrial images are now collected. We also offer key lessons learned so far from the LGAC initiative, plus insights regarding other critical elements of the Landsat program looking forward, such as acquisition, continuity, temporal revisit, and the importance of continuing to operationalize the Landsat program.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2018

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2011

Source-water susceptibility assessment in Texas—Approach and methodology

Public water systems provide potable water for the public's use. The Safe Drinking Water Act amendments of 1996 required States to prepare a source-water susceptibility assessment (SWSA) for each public water system (PWS). States were required to determine the source of water for each PWS, the origin of any contaminant of concern (COC) monitored or to be monitored, and the susceptibility of the public water system to COC exposure, to protect public water supplies from contamination. In Texas, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) was responsible for preparing SWSAs for the more than 6,000 public water systems, representing more than 18,000 surface-water intakes or groundwater wells. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked in cooperation with TCEQ to develop the Source Water Assessment Program (SWAP) approach and methodology. Texas' SWAP meets all requirements of the Safe Drinking Water Act and ultimately provides the TCEQ with a comprehensive tool for protection of public water systems from contamination by up to 247 individual COCs. TCEQ staff identified both the list of contaminants to be assessed and contaminant threshold values (THR) to be applied. COCs were chosen because they were regulated contaminants, were expected to become regulated contaminants in the near future, or were unregulated but thought to represent long-term health concerns. THRs were based on maximum contaminant levels from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s National Primary Drinking Water Regulations. For reporting purposes, COCs were grouped into seven contaminant groups: inorganic compounds, volatile organic compounds, synthetic organic compounds, radiochemicals, disinfection byproducts, microbial organisms, and physical properties. Expanding on the TCEQ's definition of susceptibility, subject-matter expert working groups formulated the SWSA approach based on assumptions that natural processes and human activities contribute COCs in quantities that vary in space and time; that increased levels of COC-producing activities within a source area may increase susceptibility to COC exposure; and that natural and manmade conditions within the source area may increase, decrease, or have no observable effect on susceptibility to COC exposure. Incorporating these assumptions, eight SWSA components were defined: identification, delineation, intrinsic susceptibility, point- and nonpoint-source susceptibility, contaminant occurrence, area-of-primary influence, and summary components. Spatial datasets were prepared to represent approximately 170 attributes or indicators used in the assessment process. These primarily were static datasets (approximately 46 gigabytes (GB) in size). Selected datasets such as PWS surface-water-intake or groundwater-well locations and potential source of contamination (PSOC) locations were updated weekly. Completed assessments were archived, and that database is approximately 10 GB in size. SWSA components currently (2011) are implemented in the Source Water Assessment Program-Decision Support System (SWAP-DSS) computer software, specifically developed to produce SWSAs. On execution of the software, the components work to identify the source of water for the well or intake, assess intrinsic susceptibility of the water- supply source, assess susceptibility to contamination with COCs from point and nonpoint sources, identify any previous detections of COCs from existing water-quality databases, and summarize the results. Each water-supply source's susceptibility is assessed, source results are weighted by source capacity (when a PWS has multiple sources), and results are combined into a single SWSA for the PWS.'SWSA reports are generated using the software; during 2003, more than 6,000 reports were provided to PWS operators and the public. The ability to produce detailed or summary reports for individual sources, and detailed or summary reports for a PWS, by COC or COC group was a unique capability of SWAP-DSS. In 2004, the TCEQ began a rotating schedule for SWSA wherein one-third of PWSs statewide would be assessed annually, or sooner if protection-program activities deemed it necessary, and that schedule has continued to the present. Cooperative efforts by the TCEQ and the USGS for SWAP software maintenance and enhancements ended in 2011 with the TCEQ assuming responsibility for all tasks.

Texas↗

USGS2019

Rare earth element mineral deposits in the United States

Because of their unique special chemical properties, many of the metals in the group of rare earth elements (REEs) have essential applications in 21st century technologies. Examples of products that use REEs are cell phones, computers, fluorescent and light-emitting-diode lights, flat-screen television and computer monitors, and in high-strength magnets used by clean energy technologies such as the generators of wind turbines and batteries of hybrid and electric vehicles. REEs are used in many defense applications, such as in components of jet engines, missile guidance systems, antimissile defense systems, satellites, and communication systems. The rare earth elements have become vital to manufacturing numerous high-tech products, which has been accompanied by a large increase in their demand. At the same time, there has been concern by the United States and many other Nations about the near-monopoly of mining, processing, and supply of REEs from one Nation, China. Between 2011 and 2017, China produced approximately 84 percent of the world’s REEs, and during this time the United States only produced REEs between 2012 and 2015. The U.S. production came entirely from the Mountain Pass mine in California, providing only about 4 percent of the world REE supply. Because REEs are essential for technological applications and are primarily supplied by one Nation, there has been an increased concern in identifying new sources of REEs, including economic REE deposits. In response to these concerns, since 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted numerous studies focused on the distribution, geology, and potential resources for the REE-bearing mineral deposits in the United States. The basic characteristics of mineral deposit types that host REE enrichments in the United Sates are summarized in this report, with selected examples. Several types of REE-enriched mineral deposits are reviewed, including deposits in carbonatites, alkaline igneous rocks, sedimentary phosphate-rich rocks (phosphorite), regions containing REE-rich veins, iron oxide deposits containing REE-bearing apatite, monazite-xenotime-bearing placer deposits (heavy-mineral sands), and ion-adsorption clay deposits (REE in granite-derived regolith). A better understanding of these mineral deposits will assist in identifying domestic resources to help alleviate the dependence on imported REEs. The economic development of REE mineral deposits is affected by many factors beyond mining, such as commodity prices and mineral processing costs. Most of the REEs are hosted by minerals that have complex chemical formulas; this presents more challenges to process and extract the REEs. Continued advancements and refinements in mineral processing techniques may allow REE deposits with complex mineralogy to be economically developed in the future.

Circular↗