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Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in many adaptive radiations. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Louisiana

Post-rift magmatic evolution of the eastern North American “passive-aggressive” margin

Understanding the evolution of passive margins requires knowledge of temporal and chemical constraints on magmatism following the transition from supercontinent to rifting, to post-rifting evolution. The Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) is an ideal study location as several magmatic pulses occurred in the 200 My following rifting. In particular, the Virginia-West Virginia region of the ENAM has experienced two postrift magmatic pulses at ∼152 Ma and 47 Ma, and thus provides a unique opportunity to study the long-term magmatic evolution of passive margins. Here we present a comprehensive set of geochemical data that includes new 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages, major and trace-element compositions, and analysis of radiogenic isotopes to further constrain their magmatic history. The Late Jurassic volcanics are bimodal, from basanites to phonolites, while the Eocene volcanics range from picrobasalt to rhyolite. Modeling suggests that the felsic volcanics from both the Late Jurassic and Eocene events are consistent with fractional crystallization. Sr-Nd-Pb systematics for the Late Jurassic event suggests HIMU and EMII components in the magma source that we interpret as upper mantle components rather than crustal interaction. Lithospheric delamination is the best hypothesis for magmatism in Virginia/West Virginia, due to tectonic instabilities that are remnant from the long-term evolution of this margin, resulting in a “passive-aggressive” margin that records multiple magmatic events long after rifting ended.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Evolution of wear and friction along experimental faults

We investigate the evolution of wear and friction along experimental faults composed of solid rock blocks. This evolution is analyzed through shear experiments along five rock types, and the experiments were conducted in a rotary apparatus at slip velocities of 0.002&ndash;0.97 m/s, slip distances from a few millimeters to tens of meters, and normal stress of 0.25&ndash;6.9 MPa. The wear and friction measurements and fault surface observations revealed three evolution phases: A) An initial stage (slip distances <50 mm) of wear by failure of isolated asperities associated with roughening of the fault surface; B) a running-in stage of slip distances of 1&ndash;3 m with intense wear-rate, failure of many asperities, and simultaneous reduction of the friction coefficient and wear-rate; and C) a steady-state stage that initiates when the fault surface is covered by a gouge layer, and during which both wear-rate and friction coefficient maintain quasi-constant, low levels. While these evolution stages are clearly recognizable for experimental faults made from bare rock blocks, our analysis suggests that natural faults &ldquo;bypass&rdquo; the first two stages and slip at gouge-controlled steady-state conditions.

Pure and Applied Geophysics

Geologic constraints on the formation and evolution of Saturn’s mid-sized moons

Saturn’s mid-sized icy moons have complex relationships with Saturn’s interior, the rings, and with each other, which can be expressed in their shapes, interiors, and geology. Observations of their physical states can, thus, provide important constraints on the ages and formation mechanism(s) of the moons, which in turn informs our understanding of the formation and evolution of Saturn and its rings. Here, we describe the cratering records of the mid-sized moons and the value and limitations of their use for constraining the histories of the moons. We also discuss observational constraints on the interior structures of the moons and geologically-derived inferences on their thermal budgets through time. Overall, the geologic records of the moons (with the exception of Mimas) include evidence of epochs of high heat flows, short- and long-lived subsurface oceans, extensional tectonics, and considerable cratering. Curiously, Mimas presents no clear evidence of an ocean within its surface geology, but its rotation and orbit indicate a present-day ocean. While the moons need not be primordial to produce the observed levels of interior evolution and geologic activity, there is likely a minimum age associated with their development that has yet to be determined. Uncertainties in the populations impacting the moons makes it challenging to further constrain their formation timeframes using craters, whereas the characteristics of their cores and other geologic inferences of their thermal evolutions may help narrow down their potential histories. Disruptive collisions may have also played an important role in the formation and evolution of Saturn’s mid-sized moons, and even the rings of Saturn, although more sophisticated modeling is needed to determine the collision conditions that produce rings and moons that fit the observational constraints. Overall, the existence and physical characteristics of Saturn’s mid-sized moons provide critical benchmarks for the development of formation theories.

Space Science Reviews

Organic petrology and geochemistry of mudrocks from the lacustrine Lucaogou Formation, Santanghu Basin, northwest China: Application to lake basin evolution

Exploration for tight oil in the frontier Santanghu Basin of northwest China has resulted in recent commercial discoveries sourced from the lacustrine Upper Permian Lucaogou Formation, already considered a “world class source rock” in the Junggar Basin to the west. Here we apply an integrated analytical program to carbonate-dominated mudrocks from the Lucaogou Formation in Santanghu Basin to document the nature of organic matter (OM) in the context of an evolving lake system. The organic-rich samples (TOC 2.8–11.4 wt%; n = 10) were widely spaced from an ~ 200 m cored section, interpreted from textural and mineralogical evidence to document transition from a lower under-filled to an overlying balanced-filled lake. Organic matter is dominated by moderate to strongly fluorescent amorphous material with Type I geochemical signature (HI values 510–755; n = 10) occurring in a continuum from lamellar stringers, 10–20 μm thick, some ≥ 1 mm in length (possible microbial mat; preserved only in lower under-filled section) to finely-disseminated amorphous groundmass intimately intermixed with mineral matrix. Biomarkers for methanotrophs and photosynthetic cyanobacteria indicate a complex microbial consortium. A unicellular prasinophyte green alga(?), similar to Tasmanites in marine rocks, is present as discrete flattened discs 50–100 μm in diameter. Type III OM including vitrinite (some fluorescent) and inertinite also is abundant. Solid bitumen, indicating local kerogen conversion, fills voids and occurs throughout the cored section. Vitrinite reflectance values are 0.47–0.58%, consistent with strong OM fluorescence but may be “suppressed”. Other proxies, e.g., biomarker parameters, indicate the Lucaogou Formation is in the early oil window at this location. On average, slightly more amorphous OM and telalginite are present in the lower section, consistent with a shallow, stratified, saline environment with low sediment dilution. More inertinite is present in the upper section, indicating greater terrestrial influx and consistent with higher quartz and plagioclase content (dominantly authigenic chalcedony and albite). Laminated mudstones in the upper section indicate anoxia prevented bioturbation from benthic grazing, also indicating stratified water column conditions. A decrease upsection in authigenic dolomite with reciprocal increase of ankerite/siderite is consistent with decreasing salinity, as is an overall decrease in gammacerane index values. These observations suggest evolution from a shallow, stratified evaporative (saline) setting to a deeper, stratified freshwater basin with higher water input during Lucaogou deposition. The evolution from an under-filled to balance-filled lake in Santanghu Basin is similar to Lucaogou deposition in Junggar Basin, suggesting similar tectonic and climatic controls. Paleoclimate interpretations from other researchers in this area suggested an evolution from semi-arid to humid conditions during the Roadian; we interpret that the evolution from an under-filled to balanced-filled lake seen in our data is in response to climate change, and may represent increased groundwater delivery to the Santanghu Basin.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Calibration of an estuarine sediment transport model to sediment fluxes as an intermediate step for simulation of geomorphic evolution

Modeling geomorphic evolution in estuaries is necessary to model the fate of legacy contaminants in the bed sediment and the effect of climate change, watershed alterations, sea level rise, construction projects, and restoration efforts. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport models used for this purpose typically are calibrated to water level, currents, and/or suspended-sediment concentrations. However, small errors in these tidal-timescale models can accumulate to cause major errors in geomorphic evolution, which may not be obvious. Here we present an intermediate step towards simulating decadal-timescale geomorphic change: calibration to estimated sediment fluxes (mass/time) at two cross-sections within an estuary. Accurate representation of sediment fluxes gives confidence in representation of sediment supply to and from the estuary during those periods. Several years of sediment flux data are available for the landward and seaward boundaries of Suisun Bay, California, the landward-most embayment of San Francisco Bay. Sediment flux observations suggest that episodic freshwater flows export sediment from Suisun Bay, while gravitational circulation during the dry season imports sediment from seaward sources. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS), a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, was adapted for Suisun Bay, for the purposes of hindcasting 19th and 20th century bathymetric change, and simulating geomorphic response to sea level rise and climatic variability in the 21st century. The sediment transport parameters were calibrated using the sediment flux data from 1997 (a relatively wet year) and 2004 (a relatively dry year). The remaining years of data (1998, 2002, 2003) were used for validation. The model represents the inter-annual and annual sediment flux variability, while net sediment import/export is accurately modeled for three of the five years. The use of sediment flux data for calibrating an estuarine geomorphic model guarantees that modeled geomorphic evolution will not exceed the actual supply of sediment from the watershed and seaward sources during the calibration period. Decadal trends in sediment supply (and therefore fluxes) can accumulate to alter decadal geomorphic change. Therefore, simulations of future geomorphic evolution are bolstered by this intermediate calibration step.

Continental Shelf Research

Geologic control on the evolution of the inner shelf morphology offshore of the Mississippi barrier islands, northern Gulf of Mexico, USA

Between 2008 and 2013, high-resolution geophysical surveys were conducted around the Mississippi barrier islands and offshore. The sonar surveys included swath and single-beam bathymetry, sidescan, and chirp subbottom data collection. The geophysical data were groundtruthed using vibracore sediment collection. The results provide insight into the evolution of the inner shelf and the relationship between the near surface geologic framework and the morphology of the coastal zone. This study focuses on the buried Pleistocene fluvial deposits and late Holocene shore-oblique sand ridges offshore of Petit Bois Island and Petit Bois Pass. Prior to this study, the physical characteristics, evolution, and interrelationship of the ridges between both the shelf geology and the adjacent barrier island platform had not been evaluated. Numerous studies elsewhere along the coastal margin attribute shoal origin and sand-ridge evolution to hydrodynamic processes in shallow water (<20 m). Here we characterize the correlation between the geologic framework and surface morphology and demonstrate that the underlying stratigraphy must also be considered when developing an evolutionary conceptual model. It is important to understand this near surface, nearshore dynamic in order to understand how the stratigraphy influences the long-term response of the coastal zone to sea-level rise. The study also contributes to a growing body of work characterizing shore-oblique sand ridges which, along with the related geology, are recognized as increasingly important components to a nearshore framework whose origins and evolution must be understood and inventoried to effectively manage the coastal zone.

Continental Shelf Research

Reverse Evolution of Armor Plates in the Threespine Stickleback

Faced with sudden environmental changes, animals must either adapt to novel environments or go extinct. Thus, study of the mechanisms underlying rapid adaptation is crucial not??only for the understanding of natural evolutionary processes but also for the understanding of human-induced evolutionary change, which is an increasingly important problem [1-8]. In the present study, we demonstrate that the frequency of completely plated threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) has increased in an urban freshwater lake (Lake Washington, Seattle, Washington) within the last 40 years. This is a dramatic example of "reverse evolution," [9] because the general evolutionary trajectory is toward armor-plate reduction in freshwater sticklebacks [10]. On the basis of our genetic studies and simulations, we propose that the most likely cause of reverse evolution is increased selection for the completely plated morph, which we suggest could result from higher levels of trout predation after a sudden increase in water transparency during the early 1970s. Rapid evolution was facilitated by the existence of standing allelic variation in Ectodysplasin (Eda), the gene that underlies the major plate-morph locus [11]. The Lake Washington stickleback thus provides a novel example of reverse evolution, which is probably caused by a change in allele frequency at the major plate locus in response to a changing predation regime. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current Biology

Tracing magmatic genesis and evolution through single zircon crystals from successive supereruptions from the Socorro Caldera Complex, USA

Large volume rhyolitic ignimbrite volcanism is a significant contributor to the evolving crust. The introduction of high-silica material into the upper crust, differentiation within the middle crust, and partial melting in the lower crust contributes to geochemical and isotopic evolution of the crust. Developing accurate models for the genetic evolution of these events is dependent upon geochronology to determine rates of magmatic processes as model constraints. We present new zircon high-precision CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb geochronology and MC-ICPMS Hf isotope geochemistry for four ignimbrites from the nested caldera complex near Socorro, New Mexico (USA), within the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field. In agreement with past 40 Ar- 39 Ar data, interpretations of new U-Pb data indicate eruptions from the Socorro caldera cluster were pulsed. These pulses were intermittently spaced, and a volcanic hiatus following the Hells Mesa Tuff at 33.442 ± 0.015 Ma was interrupted by four successive eruptions, beginning with the La Jencia Tuff at 29.158 ± 0.025 Ma and finishing with the South Canyon Tuff at 28.066 ± 0.021 Ma. Zircon age spectra became more protracted with each eruption, exhibiting age dispersions ranging from 0.347 Myr in the Hells Mesa Tuff to 4.502 Myr in the South Canyon Tuff. The increased dispersion is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of normally discordant grains, indicative of xenocryst incorporation. These protracted age spectra are not necessarily a function of thermal maturation in the middle to upper crust due to long-lived magma chambers. Rather, they are likely the result of increased melting of zircon-bearing lower crust due to deep thermal maturation from repeated juvenile magma injections based on the incorporation of zircon material at the melt source. In contrast, the Hf isotope record is volumetrically dominated by autocrystic zircon domains and becomes more radiogenic through time, recording juvenile replenishment of the lower crust during progressive melting. Together, these data record the protracted evolution of the lower crust sampled by ignimbrites, lend insight into that evolution, and emphasize the need for detailed interpretation of high-precision datasets to advance volcanic models.

Arizona, New Mexico

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

Long short-term memory models to quantify long-term evolution of streamflow discharge and groundwater depth in Alabama

Long short-term memory (LSTM) models have been shown to be efficient for rainfall-runoff modeling, and to a lesser extent, for groundwater depth forecasting. In this study, LSTMs were applied to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of surface and subsurface hydrographs in Alabama in the Southeastern United States, where water sustainability has not been fully quantified across spatiotemporal scales. First, the surface water LSTM model with extensive dynamic (precipitation and other weather variables) and static (basin characteristics) inputs predicted the main characteristics of streamflow for six years at 19 gauged basins in Alabama. The model tended to underestimate extremely high streamflow but adding drainage density as an input feature slightly improved the predictions of extreme events. Second, to predict the groundwater depth evolution, a groundwater LSTM (GW-LSTM) model was proposed and applied using static inputs capturing the aquifers' hydrogeological properties and dynamic inputs of meteorological information. Three precipitation scenarios were also explored to evaluate the groundwater hydrograph evolution in the next two decades. The GW-LSTM model predicted the general trend of daily groundwater depth fluctuations (at 21 wells distributed across Alabama from 1990 to 2021) including most extremely high groundwater levels, and recovered groundwater depth for locations withheld from model training and validation. This study, therefore, extended the application of LSTMs in quantifying the spatiotemporal evolution of surface water and groundwater, two manifestations of a single integrated resource.

Alabama

Modeling the evolution of channel shape: Balancing computational efficiency with hydraulic fidelity

The cross-sectional shape of a natural river channel controls the capacity of the system to carry water off a landscape, to convey sediment derived from hillslopes, and to erode its bed and banks. Numerical models that describe the response of a landscape to changes in climate or tectonics therefore require formulations that can accommodate evolution of channel cross-sectional geometry. However, fully two-dimensional (2-D) flow models are too computationally expensive to implement in large-scale landscape evolution models, while available simple empirical relationships between width and discharge do not adequately capture the dynamics of channel adjustment. We have developed a simplified 2-D numerical model of channel evolution in a cohesive, detachment-limited substrate subject to steady, unidirectional flow. Erosion is assumed to be proportional to boundary shear stress, which is calculated using an approximation of the flow field in which log-velocity profiles are assumed to apply along vectors that are perpendicular to the local channel bed. Model predictions of the velocity structure, peak boundary shear stress, and equilibrium channel shape compare well with predictions of a more sophisticated but more computationally demanding ray-isovel model. For example, the mean velocities computed by the two models are consistent to within ???3%, and the predicted peak shear stress is consistent to within ???7%. Furthermore, the shear stress distributions predicted by our model compare favorably with available laboratory measurements for prescribed channel shapes. A modification to our simplified code in which the flow includes a high-velocity core allows the model to be extended to estimate shear stress distributions in channels with large width-to-depth ratios. Our model is efficient enough to incorporate into large-scale landscape evolution codes and can be used to examine how channels adjust both cross-sectional shape and slope in response to tectonic and climatic forcing. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface

Multidecadal geomorphic evolution of a profoundly disturbed gravel-bed river system—a complex, nonlinear response and its impact on sediment delivery

A 2.5-km3 debris avalanche during the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens reset the fluvial landscape of upper North Fork Toutle River valley. Since then, a new drainage network has formed and evolved. Cross-section surveys repeated over nearly 40 years at 16 locations along a 20-km reach of river valley document channel evolution, geomorphic processes, and their impacts on sediment delivery. We analyzed spatial and temporal changes in channel morphology using two new metrics: 1) a shape index that defines the degree of U-shaped or V-shaped valley geometry; and 2) an alluvial phase-space diagram that relates bed degradation or aggradation between consecutive surveys to increases or decreases in cross-section area. Metric relations reveal more diverse channel evolution than originally described by a simple, linear-response model of sequential channel initiation and incision; aggradation and widening; and subsequent episodic scour and fill with little change in bed elevation. Instead, vertical and lateral adjustments have been crucial processes intertwined throughout channel evolution. Channel evolution has followed a distinctly nonlinear and non-sequential trajectory, migrating through several phase spaces and involving varied combinations of (1) degradation and aggradation with widening and narrowing, (2) bed-level fluctuations with little change in cross-section area, and (3) changes in cross-section area with little change of bed elevation. Persistent channel widening and reworking of the channel bed presently drive elevated sediment delivery from this basin. Elevated sediment delivery is likely to persist until valley-floor widths greatly exceed that of the channel-migration corridor, and/or channel banks and valley walls stabilize.

Washington

Morphological computation of dune evolution with equilibrium and non-equilibrium sediment-transport models

This paper presents an exploratory study that comprises the implementation and comparison of different approaches and parameterization of sediment transport mechanisms in a process-based morphological model for simulating river dunes. The purpose of this study was to assess the underlying physical processes associated with sediment transport and dune evolution simulated by the model with two different bedload transport models: a non-equilibrium approach considering saltation distance and an equilibrium approach with the incorporation of the effect of the local bed slope. The advancement of this study is that it comprised detailed analysis of the bed shear stress and sediment transport over a dune during time varying flows, comparing both transport models and revealing distinctive transient features of bedload transport and dune evolution. We also improved a non-equilibrium transport model by incorporating a formulation for sediment saltation distance as a length-scale. Using both sediment transport approaches, the morphological model was applied to replicate a large-scale field experiment. Notably, the model yielded the quasi-equilibrium dune feature reasonably well using either sediment-transport formulation. However, detailed analysis of simulated spatial and temporal features of sediment transport and the dune evolution process were found to be noticeably different. Even though both sediment transport mechanisms appear to work adequately at a basic level, the major difference between the two approaches is the underlying transport process over the dunes and time-scale of the dune evolution process.

Water Resources Research

Exploring centennial barrier-inlet evolution: Insights from undeveloped and developed phases at Barnegat Inlet, New Jersey

This study aims to identify the natural processes and the subsequent responses to coastal engineering and development on the alongshore evolution of the IB-BI-LBI inlet-barrier system. The primary focus will be the quantification of barrier island and inlet sediment partitioning at decadal to centennial timescales, from 1839-1941. We analyze historical alongshore evolution and track coastal engineering efforts at the Island Beach–Barnegat Inlet–Long Beach Island, NJ barrier-inlet system, which has transitioned from natural to highly developed over the past 180 years. We build a quantitative mass-balance framework that tracks sediment reservoir volumes and transport fluxes within the barrier-inlet system to describe both the natural and developed alongshore evolution of this system. We find that minor coastal engineering efforts, including the construction of small-scale wood and stone jetties, not only shift sediment transport locally, but also shift system-wide sediment transport based on inlet-barrier island interactions and sediment partitioning. Better understanding these different modes of past evolution can help to guide coastal management strategies as beach nourishment increases in cost, sea level-rise accelerates, and extreme storm patterns change.

New Jersey

Development of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution

Predicting the decadal evolution of barrier island systems is important for coastal managers who propose restoration or preservation alternatives aimed at increasing the resiliency of the island and its associated habitats or communities. Existing numerical models for simulating morphologic changes typically include either long-term (for example, longshore transport under quiescent conditions) or short-term (for example, storm-driven waves) processes, with limited capacity to predict the decadal time-scale that is often most relevant in coastal planning. As part of the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Assessment, a methodology was developed to predict barrier island evolution on decadal time scales. The developed modeling scheme uses multiple models including (1) Delft3D; (2) the empirical dune growth model (EDGR); and (3) XBeach that run sequentially to simulate evolution of barrier island geomorphology. The model framework was developed and applied to hindcast the evolution of Dauphin Island, Alabama, between 2004 and 2015, and was assessed using lidar data over the same period.

Alabama

A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century

Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the climate-change driven evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts at 50-100 year time scales, while taking into account the contributions from catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic manner. In this new model, the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is determined by: (1) computing the variation of total sediment volume exchange between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volume along the inlet-interrupted coast as a spatially and temporally varying quantity. The exchange volume, as computed here, consists of three major components: variation in fluvial sediment supply; basin (or estuarine) infilling due to the sea-level rise-induced increase in accommodation space; and estuarine sediment volume change due to variations in river discharge. To pilot the model, it is here applied to three different catchment-estuary-coastal systems: the Alsea estuary (Oregon, USA), Dyfi estuary (Wales, UK), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Results indicate that all three systems will experience sediment deficits by 2100 (i.e. sediment importing estuaries). However, processes and system characteristics governing the total sediment exchange volume, and thus coastline change, vary markedly among the systems due to differences in geomorphic settings and projected climatic conditions. These results underline the importance of accounting for the different governing processes when assessing the future evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines.

Frontiers in Marine Science