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Simulations of potential future conditions in the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas

A three-dimensional finite-difference model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache Critical Groundwater Area of eastern Arkansas was constructed to simulate potential future conditions of groundwater flow. The objectives of this study were to test different pilot point distributions to find reasonable estimates of aquifer properties for the alluvial aquifer, to simulate flux from rivers, and to demonstrate how changes in pumping rates for different scenarios affect areas of long-term water-level declines over time. The model was calibrated using the parameter estimation code. Additional calibration was achieved using pilot points with regularization and singular value decomposition. Pilot point parameter values were estimated at a number of discrete locations in the study area to obtain reasonable estimates of aquifer properties. Nine pumping scenarios for the years 2011 to 2020 were tested and compared to the simulated water-level heads from 2010. Hydraulic conductivity values from pilot point calibration ranged between 42 and 173 m/d. Specific yield values ranged between 0.19 and 0.337. Recharge rates ranged between 0.00009 and 0.0006 m/d. The model was calibrated using 2,322 hydraulic head measurements for the years 2000 to 2010 from 150 observation wells located in the study area. For all scenarios, the volume of water depleted ranged between 5.7 and 23.3 percent, except in Scenario 2 (minimum pumping rates), in which the volume increased by 2.5 percent.

Arkansas

The road to Yucca Mountain—Evolution of nuclear waste disposal in the United States

The generation of electricity by nuclear power and the manufacturing of atomic weapons have created a large amount of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. There is a world-wide consensus that the best way to protect mankind and the environment is to dispose of this waste in a deep geologic repository. Initial efforts focused on salt as the best medium for disposal, but the heat generated by the radioactive waste led many earth scientists to examine other rock types. In 1976, the director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) wrote to the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), predecessor agency of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), suggesting that there were several favorable environments at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), and that the USGS already had extensive background information on the NTS. Later, in a series of communications and one publication, the USGS espoused the favorability of the thick unsaturated zone. After the passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982), the DOE compiled a list of nine favorable sites and settled on three to be characterized. In 1987, as the costs of characterizing three sites ballooned, Congress amended the Nuclear Waste Policy Act directing the DOE to focus only on Yucca Mountain in Nevada, with the proviso that if anything unfavorable was discovered, work would stop immediately. The U.S. DOE, the U.S. DOE national laboratories, and the USGS developed more than 100 detailed plans to study various earth-science aspects of Yucca Mountain and the surrounding area, as well as materials studies and engineering projects needed for a mined geologic repository. The work, which cost more than 10 billion dollars and required hundreds of man-years of work, culminated in a license application submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 2008.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Hydrological and geophysical investigation of streamflow losses and restoration strategies in an abandoned mine lands setting

Longitudinal discharge and water-quality campaigns (seepage runs) were combined with surface-geophysical surveys, hyporheic-temperature profiling, and watershed-scale hydrological monitoring to evaluate the locations, magnitude, and impact of streamwater losses from the West Creek subbasin of the West West Branch Schuylkill River into the underground Oak Hill Mine complex that extends beneath the watershed divide. Abandoned mine drainage (AMD), containing iron and other contaminants, from the Oak Hill Boreholes to the West Branch Schuylkill River was sustained during low-flow conditions and correlated to streamflow lost through the West Creek streambed. During high-flow conditions, streamflow was transmitted throughout West Creek; however, during low-flow conditions, all streamflow from the perennial headwaters was lost within the 300-to-600-m "upper reach" where an 1889 mine map indicated steeply dipping coalbeds underlie the channel. During low-flow conditions, the channel within the "intermediate reach" 700-to-1650-m downstream gained groundwater seepage with higher pH and specific conductance than upstream; however, all streamflow 1650-to-2050-m downstream was lost to underlying mines. Electrical resistivity and electromagnetic conductivity surveys indicated conductive zones beneath the upper reach, where flow loss occurred, and through the intermediate reach, where gains and losses occurred. Temperature probes at 0.06-to-0.10-m depth within the hyporheic zone of the intermediate reach indicated potential downward fluxes as high as 2.1x10-5 m/s. Cumulative streamflow lost from West Creek during seepage runs averaged 53.4 L/s, which equates to 19.3 percent of the daily average discharge of AMD from the Oak Hill Boreholes and a downward flux of 1.70x10-5 m/s across the 2.1-km-by-1.5-m West Creek stream-channel area.

Pennsylvania

Using an analytical geometry method to improve tiltmeter data presentation

The tiltmeter is a useful tool for geologic and geotechnical applications. To obtain full benefit from the tiltmeter, easy and accurate data presentations should be used. Unfortunately, the most commonly used method for tilt data reduction now may yield inaccurate and low-resolution results. This article describes a simple, accurate, and high-resolution approach developed at the Illinois State Geological Survey for data reduction and presentation. The orientation of tiltplates is determined first by using a trigonometric relationship, followed by a matrix transformation, to obtain the true amount of rotation change of the tiltplate at any given time. The mathematical derivations used for the determination and transformation are then coded into an integrated PC application by adapting the capabilities of commercial spreadsheet, database, and graphics software. Examples of data presentation from tiltmeter applications in studies of landfill covers, characterizations of mine subsidence, and investigations of slope stability are also discussed.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Debris-flow generation from recently burned watersheds

Evaluation of the erosional response of 95 recently burned drainage basins in Colorado, New Mexico and southern California to storm rainfall provides information on the conditions that result in fire-related debris flows. Debris flows were produced from only 37 of 95 (~40 percent) basins examined; the remaining basins produced either sediment-laden streamflow or no discernable response. Debris flows were thus not the prevalent response of the burned basins. The debris flows that did occur were most frequently the initial response to significant rainfall events. Although some hillslopes continued to erode and supply material to channels in response to subsequent rainfall events, debris flows were produced from only one burned basin following the initial erosive event. Within individual basins, debris flows initiated through both runoff and infiltration-triggered processes. The fact that not all burned basins produced debris flows suggests that specific geologic and geomorphic conditions may control the generation of fire-related debris flows. The factors that best distinguish between debris-flow producing drainages and those that produced sediment-laden streamflow are drainage-basin morphology and lithology, and the presence or absence of water-repellent soils. Basins underlain by sedimentary rocks were most likely to produce debris flows that contain large material, and sand- and gravel-dominated flows were generated primarily from terrain underlain by decomposed granite. Basin-area and relief thresholds define the morphologic conditions under which both types of debris flows occur. Debris flows containing large material are more likely to be produced from basins without water-repellent soils than from basins with water repellency. The occurrence of sand-and gravel-dominated debris flows depends on the presence of water-repellent soils.

California

The Springdale, Utah, landslide: An extraordinary event

The most dramatic geologic effect of the M-5.7 St. George, Utah earthquake of 2 September 1992 was the triggering of the 14,000,000-m3 Springdale, Utah landslide. The roughly 10 m of landslide movement destroyed three houses, threatened several condominiums, disrupted utility lines, and temporarily closed the southwest entrance to Zion National Park. The seismic triggering of this landslide is puzzling because its distance from the earthquake epicenter, 44 km, is much greater than the farthest distance (18 km) at which similar landslides have been triggered in worldwide earthquakes of the same magnitude. Other Colorado Plateau earthquakes also have produced landslides far beyond worldwide distance limits, which suggests that regional variations in ground-shaking attenuation may require different landslide-triggering distance limits for different seismotectonic regions. Slope stability analysis and historical records of landslide movement suggest that the Springdale landslide was only slightly above limit-equilibrium conditions at the time of the earthquake. Dynamic stability analysis using Newmark's permanent-displacement method indicates coseismic landslide displacement of only 1-8 cm; this rather modest displacement probably induced enough deformation in the montmorillonitic clays along the failure surface to reduce shear strength and destabilize the slide, which continued to move for several hours after the earthquake.

Utah

The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Hydraulic modeling for lahar hazards at cascades volcanoes

The National Weather Service flood routing model DAMBRK is able to closely replicate field-documented stages of historic and prehistoric lahars from Mt. Rainier, Washington, and Mt. Hood, Oregon. Modeled time-of-travel of flow waves are generally consistent with documented lahar travel-times from other volcanoes around the world. The model adequately replicates a range of lahars and debris flows, including the 230 million km3 Electron lahar from Mt. Rainier, as well as a 10 m3 debris flow generated in a large outdoor experimental flume. The model is used to simulate a hypothetical lahar with a volume of 50 million m3 down the East Fork Hood River from Mt. Hood, Oregon. Although a flow such as this is thought to be possible in the Hood River valley, no field evidence exists on which to base a hazards assessment. DAMBRK seems likely to be usable in many volcanic settings to estimate discharge, velocity, and inundation areas of lahars when input hydrographs and energy-loss coefficients can be reasonably estimated.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Regional landslide-hazard evaluation using landslide slopes, Western Wasatch County, Utah

Landsliding has historically been one of the most damaging geologic hazards in western Wasatch County, Utah. Accordingly, we mapped and analyzed landslides (slumps and debris slides) in the area to provide an empirical basis for regional landslide-hazard evaluation. The 336 landslides in the 250-sq-mi (650-km 2 ) area involve 20 geologic units, including Mississippian- to Quaternary-aged rock and unconsolidated deposits. Landsliding in western Wasatch County is characterized by a strong correlation between geologic material and landslide-slope inclination. From a simple statistical analysis of overall slope inclinations of late Holocene landslides, we determined “critical” slope inclinations above which late Holocene landsliding has typically occurred and used these as the primary basis for defining relative landslide hazard. The critical slopes vary for individual geologic units and range from 15 to 50 percent (9°–27°). The critical slope values and landslide locations were used in conjunction with geologic and slope maps to construct qualitative landslide-susceptibility maps for use by county planners. The maps delineate areas of low, moderate, and high relative hazard and indicate where studies should be completed prior to development to evaluate site-specific slope-stability conditions. Critical slopes as determined in this study provide a consistent empirical reference that is useful for evaluating relative landslide hazard and guiding land-use-planning decisions in large, geologically complex areas.

Utah

Surface deformation as a guide to kinematics and three-dimensional shape of slow-moving, clay-rich landslides, Honolulu, Hawaii

Two slow-moving landslides in Honolulu, Hawaii, were the subject of photogrammetric measurements, field mapping, and subsurface investigation to learn whether surface observations can yield useful information consistent with results of subsurface investigation. Mapping focused on structural damage and on surface features such as scarps, shears, and toes. The x-y-z positions of photo-identifiable points were obtained from aerial photographs taken at three different times. The measurements were intended to learn if the shape of the landslide failure surface can be determined from systematic surface observations and whether surface observations about deformation are consistent with photogrammetrically-obtained displacement gradients. Field and aerial photographic measurements were evaluated to identify the boundaries of the landslides, distinguish areas of incipient landslide enlargement, and identify zones of active and passive failure in the landslides. Data reported here apply mainly to the Alani-Paty landslide, a translational, earth-block landslide that damaged property in a 3.4-ha residential area. It began moving in the 1970s and displacement through 1991 totaled 4 m. Thickness, determined from borehole data, ranges from about 7 to 10 m; and the slope of the ground surface averages about 9°. Field evidence of deformation indicated areas of potential landslide enlargement outside the well-formed landslide boundaries. Displacement gradients obtained photogrammetrically and deformation mapping both identified similar zones of active failure (longitudinal stretching) and passive failure (longitudinal shortening) within the body of the landslide. Surface displacement on the landslide is approximately parallel to the broadly concave slip surface.

Hawaii

A new device for collecting time-integrated water samples from springs and surface water bodies

A new device termed the 'seepage sampler' was developed to collect representative water samples from springs, streams, and other surface-water bodies. The sampler collects composite, time-integrated water samples over short (hours) or extended (weeks) periods without causing significant changes to the chemical composition of the samples. The water sample within the sampler remains at the ambient temperature of the water body and does not need to be cooled. Seepage samplers are inexpensive to construct and easy to use. A sampling program of numerous springs and/or streams can be designed at a relatively low cost through the use of these samplers. Transient solutes migrating through such flow systems, potentially unnoticed by periodic sampling, may be detected. In addition, the mass loading of solutes (e.g., agrichemicals) may be determined when seepage samplers are used in conjunction with discharge measurements.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Response of the Rio Grande and shallow ground water in the Mesilla Bolson to irrigation, climate stress, and pumping

The El Paso-Ciudad Juarez metropolitan area obtains its water from the Rio Grande and intermontane-basin aquifers. Shallow ground water in this region is in close communication with the surface water system. A major problem with both systems is salinity. Upstream usage of the water in the Rio Grande for irrigation and municipalities has led to concentration of soluble salts to the point where the surface water commonly exceeds drinking water standards. Shallow ground water is recharged by surface water (primarily irrigation canals and agricultural fields) and discharges to surface water (agricultural drains) and deeper ground water.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Liquefaction evidence for at least two strong Holocene paleo-earthquakes in central and southwestern Illinois, USA

Two strong mid-Holocene earthquakes in Illinois have been documented by paleoliquefaction features such as clastic dikes, sills, and detachments of fine-grained sediment that sunk into liquefied sand. At least one paleo-earthquake occurred in central Illinois about 35 km NE of Springfield, probably sometime between 5,900 and 7,400 yr BP. Dike widths are as much as 0.4 m near the energy center of the earthquake. Outward from this center, dike widths attenuate and ultimately disappear at about 35 km. More than one paleo-earthquake is probably represented by liquefaction features near Springfield. Another paleo-earthquake that appears to have been centered about 65 km ESE of St. Louis, Missouri, occurred near 5,700 yr BP. The energy center is inferred as being in Illinois, and most likely near lowermost Shoal Creek where the meizoseismal region is defined by dikes as wide as 0.5 m and by a regional abundance of dikes. Dikes from this earthquake probably extend at least as far as 35 km from its inferred energy center. The earthquake near Shoal Creek and one earthquake near Springfield almost certainly exceeded M 6. The paleomagnitudes can be more closely bracketed by geotechnical testing and analysis, when used in conjunction with existing data.

Illinois

Anomalous increases in piezometric levels in advance of longwall mining subsidence

The typical initial piezometric response to longwall undermining is a decline in head due to the opening of fractures and bedding planes during early subsidence. However, in studies over two active longwall mines in southern Illinois, temporary rises in head just before subsidence were observed in piezometers constructed in low-permeability units. Although the initial phase of subsidence is considered dilational, these head increases indicate compressional effects that raise pore-water pressures. Possible mechanisms are shear stresses at the leading edge of subsidence or transmission of stress related to dewatering of underlying permeable units.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Developing a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment framework for Pacific sources: USGS Powell Center meeting summary

Multi-organizational principal investigators formed a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Powell Center Working Group (WG), Tsunami Source Standardization for Hazards Mitigation in the United States, to develop a comprehensive series of sources capable of generating tsunamis that could impact U.S. state and territory coastal areas using probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). PTHA results are commonly used to provide consistent tsunami hazard information for use in engineering and risk assessment and, to a lesser extent, hazard response planning. Following an initial weeklong planning meeting in April 2018, designed to establish the WG’s scope, a series of weeklong meetings devoted to aspects of tsunami hazards placed emphasis on assessment of various tsunami sources, including subduction zones in Alaska, the Atlantic and Caribbean, Cascadia, and the Pacific Basin, as well as landslides in Alaska, the Atlantic, and the Caribbean. The final meeting in the series discussed tsunami sources from crustal faults. These meetings, each with a regional geographic focus, were designed to incorporate reviews and feedback from subject matter experts (SMEs) in academia, private industry, and federal, state, and local governmental organizations. Incorporating consensus from SMEs is important because the results derived from the tsunami source models will be used to inform the public about potential hazards from tsunamis related to safety concerns. This paper describes the USGS Powell Center meeting in March 2023, devoted specifically to developing a PTHA for tsunami sources in the Pacific Ocean Basin other than the Alaska–Aleutian and Cascadia subduction zones that were addressed during previous WG meetings.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Evidence for large Holocene earthquakes along the Denali fault in southwest Yukon, Canada

The Yukon–Alaska Highway corridor in southern Yukon is subject to geohazards ranging from landslides to floods and earthquakes on faults in the St. Elias Mountains and Shakwak Valley. Here we discuss the late Holocene seismic history of the Denali fault, located at the eastern front of the St. Elias Mountains and one of only a few known seismically active terrestrial faults in Canada. Holocene faulting is indicated by scarps and mounds on late Pleistocene drift and by tectonically deformed Pleistocene and Holocene sediments. Previous work on trenches excavated against the fault scarp near the Duke River reveals paleoseismic sediment disturbance dated to ∼300–1,200, 1,200–1,900, and 3,000 years ago. Re-excavation of the trenches indicates a fourth event dated to 6,000 years ago. The trenches are interpreted to show a negative flower structure produced by extension of sediments by dextral strike-slip fault movement. Nearby Crescent Lake is ponded against the fault scarp. Sediment cores reveal four abrupt sediment and diatom changes reflecting seismic shaking at ∼1,200–1,900, 1,900–5,900, 5,900–6,200, and 6,500–6,800 years ago. At the Duke River, the fault offsets sediments, including two White River tephra layers (∼1,900 and 1,200 years old). Late Pleistocene outwash gravel and overlying Holocene aeolian sediments show in cross section a positive flower structure indicative of post-glacial contraction of the sediments by dextral strike-slip movement. Based on the number of events reflecting ∼M6, we estimate the average recurrence of large earthquakes on the Yukon part of the Denali fault to be about 1,300 years in the past 6,500–6,800 years.

Yukon

Using high sample rate lidar to measure debris-flow velocity and surface geometry

Debris flows evolve in both time and space in complex ways, commonly starting as coherent failures but then quickly developing structures such as roll waves and surges. These processes are readily observed but difficult to study or quantify because of the speed at which they evolve. Many methods for studying debris flows consist of point measurements (e.g., flow height or basal stresses), which are inherently limited in spatial coverage and cannot fully characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of a flow. In this study, we use terrestrial lidar to measure debris-flow profiles at high sampling rates to examine debris-flow movement with high temporal and spatial precision and accuracy. We acquired measurements during gate-release experiments at the U.S. Geological Survey debris-flow flume, a unique experimental facility where debris flows can be artificially generated at a large scale. A lidar scanner was used to record repeat topographic profiles of the moving debris flows along the length of the flume with a narrow swath width (∼1 mm) at a rate of 60 Hz. The high-resolution lidar profiles enabled us to quantify flow front velocity of the debris flows and provided an unprecedented record of the development and evolution of the flow structure with a sub-second time resolution. The findings of this study demonstrate how to obtain quantitative measurements of debris-flow movement. In addition, the data help us to quantitatively define the development of a saltating debris-flow front and roll waves behind the debris-flow front. Such measurements may help constrain future modeling efforts.

Environmental and Engineering Geoscience

Rockfall kinematics from massive rock cliffs: Outlier boulders and flyrock from Whitney Portal, California, rockfalls

Geologic conditions and topographic setting are among the most critical factors for assessing rockfall hazards. However, other subtle features of rockfall motion may also govern the runout of rockfall debris, particularly for those sourced from massive cliffs where debris can have substantial momentum during transport. Rocks may undergo collisions with trees and talus boulders, with the latter potentially generating flyrock—launched rock pieces resulting from boulder collisions that follow distinctively different paths than the majority of debris. Collectively, these intricacies of rockfall kinematics may substantially govern the hazards expected from rockfall to both persons and infrastructure located beneath steep cliffs. Here, we investigate the kinematics, including outlier boulder and flyrock trajectories, of seismically triggered rockfalls on 24 June 2020 that damaged campground facilities near Whitney Portal, CA, a heavily used outdoor recreation gateway to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Our results, obtained in part by rockfall runout model simulations, indicate that outlier boulder trajectories resulted from opportunities provided by less steep terrain beyond the talus edge. The influence of trees, initially thought to have served a protective capacity in attenuating rockfall energy, appears to have been negligible for the large boulder volumes (>50 m 3 ) mobilized, although they did potentially deflect the trajectory of flyrock debris. Rockfall outlier boulders from the event were comparable in volume and runout distance to prehistoric boulders located beyond the talus slope, thereby providing some level of confidence in the use of a single rockfall shadow angle for estimating future rockfall hazards at the site.

California