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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, and value of information) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

Epidemics↗
USGS2010

Decision analysis framing study: In-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing ongoing legal processes associated with drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) withdrew from the Decision Analysis process early in the proceedings. Without the involvement of the USBR, the USGS discontinued further development of this study.

California↗
USGS2012

Carbon storage, timber production, and biodiversity: comparing ecosystem services with multi-criteria decision analysis

Increasingly, land managers seek ways to manage forests for multiple ecosystem services and functions, yet considerable challenges exist in comparing disparate services and balancing trade-offs among them. We applied multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and forest simulation models to simultaneously consider three objectives: (1) storing carbon, (2) producing timber and wood products, and (3) sustaining biodiversity. We used the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) applied to 42 northern hardwood sites to simulate forest development over 100 years and to estimate carbon storage and timber production. We estimated biodiversity implications with occupancy models for 51 terrestrial bird species that were linked to FVS outputs. We simulated four alternative management prescriptions that spanned a range of harvesting intensities and forest structure retention. We found that silvicultural approaches emphasizing less frequent harvesting and greater structural retention could be expected to achieve the greatest net carbon storage but also produce less timber. More intensive prescriptions would enhance biodiversity because positive responses of early successional species exceeded negative responses of late successional species within the heavily forested study area. The combinations of weights assigned to objectives had a large influence on which prescriptions were scored as optimal. Overall, we found that a diversity of silvicultural approaches is likely to be preferable to any single approach, emphasizing the need for landscape-scale management to provide a full range of ecosystem goods and services. Our analytical framework that combined MCDA with forest simulation modeling was a powerful tool in understanding trade-offs among management objectives and how they can be simultaneously accommodated.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2009

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Decision analysis of mitigation and remediation of sedimentation within large wetland systems: a case study using Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge

Sedimentation has been identified as an important stressor across a range of wetland systems. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has the responsibility of maintaining wetlands within its National Wildlife Refuge System for use by migratory waterbirds and other wildlife. Many of these wetlands could be negatively affected by accelerated rates of sedimentation, especially those located in agricultural parts of the landscape. In this report we document the results of a decision analysis project designed to help U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff at the Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge (herein referred to as the Refuge) determine a strategy for managing and mitigating the negative effects of sediment loading within Refuge wetlands. The Refuge’s largest wetland, Agassiz Pool, has accumulated so much sediment that it has become dominated by hybrid cattail ( Typha × glauca ), and the ability of the staff to control water levels in the Agassiz Pool has been substantially reduced. This project consisted of a workshop with Refuge staff, local and regional stakeholders, and several technical and scientific experts. At the workshop we established Refuge management and stakeholder objectives, a range of possible management strategies, and assessed the consequences of those strategies. After deliberating a range of actions, the staff chose to consider the following three strategies: (1) an inexpensive strategy, which largely focused on using outreach to reduce external sediment inputs to the Refuge; (2) the most expensive option, which built on the first option and relied on additional infrastructure changes to the Refuge to increase management capacity; and (3) a strategy that was less expensive than strategy 2 and relied mostly on existing infrastructure to improve management capacity. Despite the fact that our assessments were qualitative, Refuge staff decided they had enough information to select the third strategy. Following our qualitative assessment, we discussed additional considerations and uncertainties that might affect implementation of this strategy.

Minnesota↗
USGS2019

Multi-species duck harvesting using dynamic programming and multi-criteria decision analysis

1.Multiple species are often exposed to a common hunting season, but harvest and population objectives may not be fully achieved if harvest potential varies among species and/or species abundances are not correlated through time. Our goal was to develop an approach for setting a common hunting season that would recognize heterogeneity in species productivity and would select annual hunting seasons conditioned on the status of individual species. 2.We first used stochastic dynamic programming to generate optimal, state‐dependent harvest strategies for 18 candidate regulatory scenarios. We simulated the performance of these strategies, and then used multi‐criteria decision making to identify preferred regulatory scenarios for duck hunting seasons in the Atlantic Flyway of the U.S. 3.Generally, estimates of annual population size were not correlated among species. Mallards had the highest estimated intrinsic rate of growth, green‐winged teal, wood ducks, and ring‐necked ducks had intermediate values, and goldeneyes were the least productive. Estimated carrying capacity was highest for mallards and lowest for green‐winged teal. 4.Managers had greatest interest in maximizing season length (33%) and aggregate duck abundance (28%), and less interest in maximizing aggregate harvest (19%) and the number of years between a change in hunting season regulations (19%). Several regulatory scenarios provided acceptable tradeoffs among these objectives. 5.Synthesis and applications. Separate hunting seasons for various species of game may be untenable, either due to the added cost and regulatory complexity, or because selective harvesting of stocks may be difficult due to problems in species identification. Rather than averaging species‐specific productivities, or basing hunting seasons on the least (or most) productive species, we describe an approach in which productivity and annual population status are considered explicitly for each species. By combining stochastic dynamic programming with multi‐criteria decision analysis, we can identify a regulatory strategy that can address a diverse set of objectives and explicitly recognize the tradeoffs among them. To meet the Atlantic Flyway's objectives as identified by waterfowl managers, our results suggest a regulatory strategy in which the harvest is targeted at 98% of aggregate maximum sustainable yield, most emphasis is placed on accumulating harvests of mallards and wood ducks, and by using a set of regulatory options that are more conservative than those currently in use.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2019

Decision analysis for the reintroduction of Bull Trout into the lower Pend Oreille River, Washington

The decision to reintroduce a species can be difficult owing to conflicting opinions and objectives, as well as uncertainty of the outcome. Structured decision making addresses these considerations by identifying realistic fundamental objectives and building achievable management alternatives, within a quantitative modeling framework. The process is driven by participation of stakeholders that represent diverse objectives, policy mandates, and opinions regarding decision alternatives. We applied structured decision making to evaluate reintroduction of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus in the lower Pend Oreille River in northeastern Washington State. We engaged stakeholders from Tribal, municipal, county, state and federal agencies to specify fundamental objectives, formulate feasible reintroduction decisions, and conceptualize a modeling framework that includes biological information and stakeholder assumptions. Stakeholders requested iterative decision sets to determine the optimal recipient streams and release strategies. The optimal decision, based on the fundamental objective of maximizing adult abundance at year 10, was artificial propagation of 4500 juvenile Bull Trout coupled with translocation of 25 adult migrants to be reintroduced into a tributary and lake system that produced at least 18% more adult fish relative to alternatives. Sensitivity analyses were robust to the identity of the recipient stream (i.e., Sullivan Lake/Harvey Creek was always the optimal recipient stream) but suggested that maximizing the number of artificially produced juveniles released could produce a similar number of adult Bull Trout as the coupled release strategy. Results also suggested that ensuring fish passage at the Albeni Falls Dam in the mainstem Pend Oreille River could increase the abundance of adult fish. The process followed for this case study can be adapted to similar decisions regarding reintroduction or other translocations of fish in other systems.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Using a structured decision analysis to evaluate bald eagle vital signs monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks

1. Monitoring programs can benefit from an adaptive monitoring approach, where key decisions about why, where, what, and how to monitor are revisited periodically in order to ensure programmatic relevancy. 2. The National Park Service (NPS) monitors status and trends of Vital Signs to evaluate compliance with the NPS mission. Although abundant, The Southwest Alaska Network (SWAN) monitors bald eagles because of their inherent importance to park visitors and role as an important ecological indicator. Our goal is to identify an optimal monitoring program that may be standardized among participating parks. 3. We gathered an expert panel of scientists and managers, and implemented a Delphi Process to gather information about the bald eagle monitoring program. Panelists generated a list of means objectives for the monitoring program: minimizing cost, minimizing effort, maximizing the ability to detect change in bald eagle populations, and maximizing the amount of accurate information collected about bald eagles. 4. We used a swing-weighting technique to assign importance to each objective. Collecting accurate information about bald eagles was considered the most important means objective. 5. Combining panelist-generated information with objective importance, we analyzed the scenarios and defined the optimal decision using linear value modeling. Through our analysis, we found that a “Comprehensive” monitoring scenario, comprised of all feasible monitoring metrics is the optimal monitoring scenario. Even with greatly increased cost, the Comprehensive monitoring scenario remains the best solution. 6. We suggest further exploration of the cost and effort required for the Comprehensive scenario, to determine if it is in the parks’ best interest to begin monitoring additional metrics.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane ( Grus americana ), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of offspring produced. These results show that using decision-analytic tools to account for uncertainty in captive breeding can improve the rate at which such programs contribute to wildlife reintroductions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

Updated decision analysis to inform multi-species salmonine management in Lake Michigan

The recreational fishery for salmonine species in Lake Michigan (lake trout, Chinook salmon, coho salmon, steelhead, and brown trout) is largely maintained through stocking. Decisions about how many of each species to stock require an understanding of how to maintain a sustainable balance of predators (salmonine species) to prey (alewife) in the lake. The current models used to make these decisions can estimate the ratio of Chinook salmon to alewife in the lake. However, the Lake Michigan Committee’s new stocking strategy aims to incorporate the other salmonine species into this predator-prey ratio. We used structured decision making to evaluate potential stocking strategies. We worked with fishery stakeholders and members of the Lake Michigan Committee, conducted participatory modeling to forecast outcomes of stocking scenarios using updated information on fish movement and feeding, and evaluated the risk of these stocking strategies. Most of the stocking practices we evaluated resulted in a high risk of large declines in alewife abundance, negatively affecting future salmon fisheries. The forecasts were substantially more pessimistic than those resulting from a similar analysis conducted a decade earlier, apparently due to more recent alewife assessments indicating lower alewife productivity (recruits per spawner). Alewife recruitment dynamics is an area of substantial uncertainty, with apparently large consequences for management; decision makers on Lake Michigan would benefit from greater understanding of alewife recruitment dynamics to reduce this uncertainty when accounting for risks.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2021

Decision analysis of barrier placement and targeted removal to control invasive carp in the Tennessee River Basin

Controlling range expansion of invasive carp (specifically Hypophthalmichthys spp.) on the Tennessee River is important to conserve the ecological and economic benefits provided by the river. We collaborated with State and Federal agencies (the stakeholder group) to develop a decision framework and decision support model to evaluate strategies to control carp expansion in the Tennessee River. Using this decision framework, we assessed the efficacy of various barrier strategies (technologies and locations) on reducing bigheaded carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis [bighead carp] and Hypophthalmichthys molitrix [silver carp]) relative abundance under different patterns and magnitudes of population growth and movement. We also assessed whether or not these strategies induced tradeoffs between reducing bigheaded carp relative abundance and other considerations for public satisfaction, effects on lock operation, and native species. For the purpose of comparing options to control carp in a quantitative framework, we codeveloped a carp population dynamics model with the stakeholder group. We then used the model to compare invasive carp management options within the Tennessee River system. The actions we considered included barrier placement at lock and dam systems and targeted removal through harvest, which were believed to impede upstream carp spread and establishment. To account for the uncertainty in carp population growth and movement rates, the group developed four population models that varied in the underlying population dynamics and population growth rates. The models affected population growth through either the stock-recruitment relation or intrinsic density-dependent growth rate. We then tasked the stakeholder group to test various strategies using the model. We then developed a more formal optimization framework and solved for strategies that performed well under scenarios of barrier effectiveness, movement rate, recruitment frequency, fishing mortality, and variation in population growth rate. The results of our qualitative and quantitative analyses indicated that strategies designed to first protect reservoirs just above the leading edge of carp invasion by installing barriers and removing fish below that point would perform best; however, this depended on barrier effectiveness. When barrier effectiveness was high, simply cutting off the presumed source of carp and blocking the leading the edge was enough to stop carp invasion; however, lower effectiveness meant that more barriers would be needed to slow, but not completely stop, carp invasion. We discuss what these findings mean in terms of future monitoring and management efforts to reduce the potential for expanding carp invasion.

Kentucky↗
USGS2025

Decision analysis of Integrated Pest Management: A case study on invasive sea lamprey in the Great Lakes Basin

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) provides a powerful framework for addressing threats to human well-being caused by nuisance species including invasives. We examined the hypothesis that adaptive management could erode barriers to IPM implementation by developing a decision-analytic adaptive management framework for invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) IPM in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The framework addressed objectives associated with coordinating multiple sea lamprey control actions at the regional scale and objectives associated with internal validity of control actions. We reduced the scope of possible management actions by orders of magnitude to the set of 6432 alternatives expected to be both socially acceptable and technically feasible. Using utility theory, we identified the management actions that optimized expected utility for all possible objective weighting schemes that considered tradeoffs between maximizing learning about control tactic efficacy and minimizing cost to the IPM program. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions about the social acceptability of deploying electric weirs to control invasive sea lamprey influenced selection of the optimal control action, suggesting that resolving this source of uncertainty through iterative application of the framework may lead to improved sea lamprey control outcomes. Overall, we found that adaptive management enabled learning processes useful for overcoming barriers to IPM of invasive sea lamprey. It formalized learning about sea lamprey control tactic efficacy as an objective of the IPM institution, questioned previously held assumptions about what constitutes a viable control strategy, and enabled a management experiment with temporal and spatial replication.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Decision analysis for greater insights into the development and evaluation of Chinook salmon restoration strategies in California’s Central Valley

Considerable amounts of resources have been invested in ecological restoration projects across the globe to restore ecosystem integrity. Restoration strategies are often diverse and have been met with mixed success. In this paper, we describe the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) decision-support models developed by the Central Valley Project Improvement Act Science Integration Team as part of a larger structured decision making effort aimed at maximizing natural adult production of Chinook salmon in California’s Central Valley, USA. We then describe the decision analytic tools the stakeholder group used to solve the models and explore model results, including stochastic dynamic programming, forward simulation, proportional scoring, relative loss, expected value of perfect information, response profile analyses, and indifference curves. Using these tools, the stakeholder group was able to develop and evaluate restoration strategies for multiple Chinook salmon runs simultaneously, a first for the restoration program. We found that actions targeted at one run were detrimental to others, which was unexpected. Furthermore, information uncovered during this process was used to direct efforts towards targeted research/monitoring to reduce critical uncertainties in salmon demographic rates and make better restoration decisions moving forward. The decision sciences have established a wide range of analytical tools and approaches to simplify complex problems into key components, and we believe the concepts described in this paper are of great interest and can be applied by many restoration practitioners that undoubtedly face similar difficulties when implementing restoration strategies for complex systems.

California↗
USGS2016

Decision analysis for habitat conservation of an endangered, range-limited salamander

Many species of conservation concern are habitat limited and often a major focus of management for these species is habitat acquisition and/or restoration. Deciding the location of habitat restoration or acquisition to best benefit a protected species can be a complicated subject with competing management objectives, ecological uncertainties and stochasticity. Structured decision making (SDM) could be a useful approach for explicitly incorporating those complexities while still working toward species conservation and/or recovery. We applied an SDM approach to Red Hills salamander Phaeognathus hubrichti habitat conservation decision making. Phaeognathus hubrichti is a severely range-limited endemic species in south central Alabama and has highly specific habitat requirements. Many known populations live on private lands and the primary mode of habitat protection is habitat conservation planning, but such plans are non-binding and not permanent. Working with stakeholders, we developed an objectives hierarchy linking land acquisition or protection actions to fundamental objectives. We built a model to assess and compare the quality of the habitat in the known range of P. hubrichti . Our model evaluated key habitat attributes of 5814 pixels of 1 km 2 each and ranked the pixels from best to worst with respect to P. hubrichti habitat requirements. Our results are a spatially explicit valuation of each pixel, with respect to its probable benefit to P. hubrichti populations. The results of this effort will be used to rank pixels from most to least beneficial, then identify land owners in the most useful areas for salamanders who are willing to sell or enter into a permanent easement agreement.

Alabama↗
USGS2024

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2025

Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan

Preface This report was developed to evaluate the performance of a set of proposed alternatives for Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (bison) management at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in Wyoming, U.S.A., and to inform a National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement focused on developing the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” (BEMP). The U.S. Geological Survey facilitated a structured decision-making process for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop the alternatives and the criteria (performance metrics) for evaluating the alternatives. Chapter A provides scoping details of the report, a summary of the 19 metrics that are used to evaluate the performance of each of 6 alternatives, and methodological details of 2 performance metrics that were not covered in other technical chapters. Chapter B analyzes elk population and chronic wasting disease dynamics under the five initial alternatives. Chapter C evaluates elk space-use based on data collected from global positioning system collars on elk and expert elicitation for scenarios with limited data. Chapter D evaluates bison population dynamics, conflict, and harvest patterns under the five initial alternatives. Chapter E assesses social and economic consequences. Chapter F is newly added to this superseding report and details the analysis and results of a new alternative that was developed after discussion among the lead and cooperating agencies working on the BEMP. The full set of six alternatives are anticipated to have varying affects on bison and elk population abundance and private land use, wildlife-related recreation and tourism, and hunters and outfitters in the region. Each chapter was developed under advisement of a technical team, made up science experts from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan

Preface This report was developed to evaluate the performance of a set of proposed alternatives for Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (bison) management at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in Wyoming, U.S.A., and to inform a National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement focused on developing the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” (BEMP). The U.S. Geological Survey facilitated a structured decision-making process for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop the alternatives and the criteria (performance metrics) for evaluating the alternatives. Chapter A provides scoping details of the report, a summary of the 19 metrics that are used to evaluate the performance of each of 5 alternatives, and methodological details of 2 performance metrics that were not covered in other technical chapters. Chapter B analyzes elk population and chronic wasting disease dynamics under the five alternatives. Chapter C evaluates elk space-use based on data collected from global positioning system collars on elk and expert elicitation for scenarios with limited data. Chapter D evaluates bison population dynamics, conflict, and harvest patterns under the five alternatives. Chapter E assesses social and economic consequences. The alternatives are anticipated to have varying affects on bison and elk population abundance and private land use, wildlife-related recreation and tourism, and hunters and outfitters in the region. Each chapter was developed under advisement of a technical team, made up science experts from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Decision analysis and CO2–Enhanced oil recovery development strategies

This paper analyzes the relationship between actual reservoir conditions and predicted measures of performance of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 –EOR) programs. It then shows how CO 2 –EOR operators might maximize the value of their projects by approaching implementation using a “flexible selective” pattern development strategy, where the CO 2 –EOR program patterns are selectively developed based on site-specific reservoir properties. It also analyzes performance measures and economic consequences of utilizing a continuous CO 2 injection strategy intended to maximize CO 2 retention for a defined time period. “Net CO 2 utilization,” calculated as difference between the volumes of CO 2 injected and CO 2 recovered in the production stream divided by the oil produced, is a standard measure of CO 2 –EOR carbon utilization, but it can be a misleading predictor of the actual CO 2 retained in the reservoir. Asset value can be added to a CO 2 –EOR project by recognizing effects of variations in reservoir parameter values and basing incremental development decisions on those data. For policy analysts, the consequences of ignoring geologic variability within a reservoir that is a candidate for CO 2 –EOR will likely be to substantially overestimate predicted adoption of CO 2 –EOR in response to economic incentives. This result holds true whether the CO 2 –EOR program objective is to maximize net value by maximizing oil production or maximize CO 2 storage with oil recovery.

Natural Resources Research↗