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Can rain cause volcanic eruptions?

Volcanic eruptions are renowned for their violence and destructive power. This power comes ultimately from the heat and pressure of molten rock and its contained gases. Therefore we rarely consider the possibility that meteoric phenomena, like rainfall, could promote or inhibit their occurrence. Yet from time to time observers have suggested that weather may affect volcanic activity. In the late 1800's, for example, one of the first geologists to visit the island of Hawaii, J.D. Dana, speculated that rainfall influenced the occurrence of eruptions there. In the early 1900's, volcanologists suggested that some eruptions from Mount Lassen, Calif., were caused by the infiltration of snowmelt into the volcano's hot summit. Most such associations have not been provable because of lack of information; others have been dismissed after careful evaluation of the evidence.

Open-File Report

Paleozoic and Mesozoic deformations in the central Sierra Nevada, California

Analysis of structural and stratigraphic data indicates that several periods of regional deformation, consisting of combined folding, faulting, cataclasis, and regional metamorphism, occurred throughout the central Sierra Nevada during Paleozoic and Mesozoic time. The oldest regional deformation occurred alono northward trends during the Devonian and Mississippian periods in most roof pendants containing lower Paleozoic metasedimentary rocks at the center and along the crest of the range. This deformation is expressed in some roof pendants by an angular unconformity separating older thrice-deformed from younger twice-deformed Paleozoic metasedimentary rocks. The first Mesozoic deformation, which consisted of uplift and erosion and was accompanied by the onset of Andean-type volcanism during the Permian and Triassic, is expressed by an angular unconformity in several roof pendants from the Saddlebag Lake to the Mount Morrison areas. This unconformity is defined by Permian and Triassic andesitic to rhyolitic metavolcanic rocks unconformably overlying more intensely deformed Pennsylvanian, Permian(?), and older metasedimentary rocks. A later regional deformation occurred during the Triassic along N. 20?_30? W. trends in Permian and Triassic metavolcanic rocks of the Saddlebag Lake and Mount Dana roof pendants, in upper Paleozoic rocks of the Pine Creek roof pendant, and in the Calaveras Formation of the western metamorphic belt; the roof pendants are crosscut by Upper Triassic granitic rocks of the Lee Vining intrusive epoch. A still later period of Early and Middle Jurassic regional deformation occurred along N. 30?-60? E. trends in upper Paleozoic rocks of the Calaveras Formation of the western metamorphic belt. A further period of deformation was the Late Jurassic Nevadan orogeny, which occurred along N. 20?_40? W. trends in Upper Jurassic rocks of the western metamorphic belt that are crosscut by Upper Jurassic granitic rocks of the Yosemite intrusive epoch. Structures of similar age occur in intensely deformed oceanic-lithospheric and syntectonic plutonic rocks of the lower Kings River area, in Jurassic metavolcanic rocks of the Ritter Range roof pendant, and in Triassic metasedimentary rocks of the Mineral King roof pendant. The final Mesozoic deformation occurred along N. 50?-80? W. trends in both high-country roof pendants and the lower Kings River area; structures of this generation are crosscut by relatively undeformed Upper Cretaceous granitic rocks of the Cathedral Range intrusive epoch.

Professional Paper

Habitat and co-occurrence of native and invasive crayfish in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Biological invasions can have dramatic effects on freshwater ecosystems and introduced crayfish can be particularly impacting. We document crayfish distribution in three large hydrographic basins (Rogue, Umpqua, Willamette/Columbia) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We used occupancy analyses to investigate habitat relationships and evidence for displacement of native Pacifastacus leniusculus (Dana, 1852) by two invaders. We found invasive Procambarus clarkii (Girard, 1852), in 51 of 283 sites and in all three hydrographic basins. We found invasive Orconectes n. neglectus (Faxon, 1885) at 68% of sites in the Rogue basin and provide first documentation of their broad distribution in the Umpqua basin. We found P. clarkii in both lentic and lotic habitats, and it was positively associated with manmade sites. P. leniusculus was positively associated with lotic habitats and negatively related to manmade sites. In the Rogue and Umpqua basins, O. n. neglectus and P. leniusculus were similar in their habitat associations. We did not find a negative relationship in site occupancy between O. n. neglectus and P. leniusculus. Our data suggest that P. clarkii has potential to locally displace P. leniusculus. There is still time for preventive measures to limit the spread of the invasive crayfish in this region.

Aquatic Invasions

Anadromous coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii as a host for Argulus pugettensis (Crustacea, Branchiura): Parasite prevalence, intensity and distribution

Coastal cutthroat trout [ Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii (Richardson, 1836)] from the marine waters of Puget Sound, WA, was documented as a new host for the ectoparasite Argulus pugettensis ( Dana, 1852 ). The prevalence of A. pugettensis was 66% (49 of 74) on cutthroat trout and 0% (0 of 55) on coho salmon [ O. kisutch (Walbaum, 1792)] collected during the winter of 2017/2018. Infestations occurred most frequently on the dorsal surface, with intensities ranging from 1 to 26 argulids per fish (mean intensity 3.94 ± 4.93 S.D.). In contrast, the prevalence of the common salmon louse [ Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer, 1837)] was 72% for cutthroat trout and 31% for coho salmon. Relative to other native salmonids, little is known regarding the status, ecology and threats for coastal cutthroat trout. New information reported here is a first step in understanding the relationship between this wild, native trout and infestations by parasitic sea lice and should be followed by future studies aimed to identify population level consequences.

Northwest Science

Volcanology in Hawaii

Polynesians who first inhabited the Hawaiian Islands told in legend about Pele, Goddess of volcanic fires, who migrated from the Island of Kauai to Oahu, then to Maui, and finally to her present home in Kilauea Volcano's Halemaumau Crater on the Island of Hawaii. Geologists today accept this same relative age progressions for the evolution of the islands, demonstrating the kernels of geologic truth may lie in long-lived myths and legends. J.D. Dana, a geologist with a United states exploring expedition in the 1840's, was the first to write about the increase in age of the Hawaiian Islands to the northwest. He noted that weathering of the lavas, erosional destruction of the islands by waves and streams and the growth of reeds around the islands progressively increased away from the Island of Hawaii. He correctly established the islands' relative ages, but absolute ages had to wait for over 120 years until radioactive age-dating techniques became available.

Hawaii

Right-lateral fault motion along the slope-basin transition, Gulf of Santa Catalina, southern California

An active fault system carrying a significant component of right-lateral strike-slip motion extends for ~60 km along the slope–basin transition, ~10 to 20 km offshore of the southern California coast from La Jolla to Dana Point. From south to north, this fault system includes the Carlsbad, San Onofre, and San Mateo fault zones. High-resolution single channel minisparker and chirp seismic reflection data gathered from 2006 to 2011 reveal complex and variable fault zones that are generally characterized by nearly vertical to steeply east-dipping faults with a reverse slip component. The Carlsbad fault zone shows evidence of reverse motion followed by normal separation and probably also includes a component of strike-slip offset. The San Onofre fault zone shows clear evidence of right-lateral slip, offsetting submarine gullies near the base of the slope by approximately 60 m. North of these offset gullies, the base of the slope bends about 30° to the west, following the trend of the San Mateo fault zone, but strands of the San Onofre fault zone trend obliquely up slope, appearing to merge with the Newport–Inglewood fault zone at the shelf edge. These San Onofre fault strands consist of several en echelon left-stepping segments separated by “pop-up” structures, which imply a significant component of right-lateral offset that may serve to transfer right-lateral slip from faults along the base of the slope to the Newport–Inglewood fault zone. Using approximate base Quaternary and base Holocene reflections, segments of the Carlsbad and San Onofre fault zones appear to have experienced right-lateral motion in the Holocene, whereas deformation along the San Mateo fault zone appears to represent a period of mostly pre-Quaternary transpression.

California

Vertical transmission of Renibacterium salmoninarum in cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii)

Vertical transmission of Renibacterium salmoninarum has been well-documented in anadromous salmonids but not in hatchery-reared inland trout. We assessed whether the bacterium is vertically transmitted in cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) from a Colorado, USA hatchery, and assessed the rate of transmission from male and female brood fish. Adult brood fish were killed, tested for R. salmoninarum in kidney, liver, spleen, ovarian fluid, blood and mucus samples , then stripped of gametes to create 32 families with four infection treatments (MNFN, MNFP, MPFN, MPFP; M: male, F: female, P: positive, N: negative). Progeny from each treatment was sampled at 6 and 12 months to test for the presence of R. salmoninarum with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Our study indicated that vertical transmission was high and occurred among 60% of families across all infection treatments. However, the average proportion of infected progeny from individual families was low, ranging from 1% (MNFP, MPFN and MPFP treatments) up to 21% (MPFP treatment). Hatcheries rearing inland salmonids would be well suited to limit vertical transmission through practices such as lethal culling because any amount of transmission can perpetuate the infection throughout fish on a hatchery.

Journal of Fish Diseases

Managing the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals in wastewater-impacted streams

A revolution in analytical instrumentation circa 1920 greatly improved the ability to characterize chemical substances. This analytical foundation resulted in an unprecedented explosion in the design and production of synthetic chemicals during and post-World War II. What is now often referred to as the 2nd Chemical Revolution has provided substantial societal benefits; with modern chemical design and manufacturing supporting dramatic advances in medicine, increased food production, and expanding gross domestic products at the national and global scales as well as improved health, longevity, and lifestyle convenience at the individual scale. Presently, the chemical industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the United States (U.S.) and the second largest in Europe and Japan, representing approximately 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in each of these countries. At the turn of the 21st century, the chemical industry was estimated to be worth more than $1.6 trillion and to employ over 10 million people, globally. During the first half of the 20th century, the chemical sector expanded rapidly, the chemical industry enjoyed a generally positive status in society, and chemicals were widely appreciated as fundamental to individual and societal quality of life. Starting in the 1960s, however, the environmental costs associated with the chemical industry increasingly became the focus, due in part to the impact of books like “Silent Spring” and “Our Stolen Future” and to a number of highly publicized environmental disasters. Galvanizing chemical industry disasters included the 1976 dioxin leak north of Milan, Italy, the Love Canal evacuations in Niagara, New York beginning in 1978, and the Union Carbide leak in Bhopal, India in 1984. Understanding the environmental impact of synthetic compounds is essential to any informed assessment of net societal benefit, for the simple reason that any chemical substance that is in commercial production or use will eventually find its way to the environment. Not surprisingly given the direct link to profits, manufacturers intensely investigate and routinely document the potential benefits of new chemicals and chemical products. In contrast, the environmental risks associated with chemical production and uses are often investigated less intensely and are poorly communicated. An imbalance in the risk-benefit analysis of any synthetic chemical substance or naturally occurring chemical, which presence and concentration in the environment largely reflects human activities and management, is a particular concern owing to the fundamental link between chemistry and biology. Biological organisms are intrinsically a homeostatic balance of innumerable internal and external chemical interactions and, thus, inherently sensitive to changes in the external chemical environment.

Book chapter

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface

Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes

Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.

Alaska

Survival of whirling disease resistant rainbow trout fry in the wild: A comparison of two strains

Introduced pathogens can affect fish populations, and three main factors affect disease occurrence: the environment, host, and pathogen. Manipulating at least one of these factors is necessary for controlling disease. Myxobolus cerebralis , the parasite responsible for salmonid whirling disease, became established in Colorado during the 1990s and caused significant declines in wild Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss populations. Attempts to re-establish Rainbow Trout have focused on manipulating salmonid host resistance. A Rainbow Trout strain known as GR × CRR was developed for stocking in Colorado by crossing a whirling-disease-resistant strain known as the German Rainbow Trout (GR) with the Colorado River Rainbow Trout (CRR). The GR × CRR fish exhibit resistance similar to that shown by GR, and survival and reproduction were expected to be similar to those of CRR. One disadvantage of stocking GR × CRR is that outcrossing and backcrossing could decrease resistance, and laboratory studies have indicated that this can occur. A potential disadvantage of stocking pure GR is lower survival due to domestication. To compare fry survival between the strains, a field experiment was conducted in 1.6-km reaches of nine Colorado streams. Each stream was stocked in August 2014 with 5,000 GR × CRR and 5,000 GR individuals. In October 2014, April 2015, and August 2015, apparent survival was assessed. Two laboratory predation experiments were also conducted. The field experiment revealed that short-term apparent survival was influenced by stream, and growth rate was influenced by strain and stream. However, after 12 months, there was no difference in apparent survival or growth rate between the GR and GR × CRR strains. Laboratory experiments showed that survival did not differ between the strains when confronted with Brown Trout Salmo trutta predation. Our results indicate that the GR strain is a viable option for stocking in streams where M. cerebralis is enzootic. Further evaluation is needed to determine whether GR fish will survive to maturity and reproduce.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health

Sinoatrial contracaeciasis in Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum ) and Plains Topminnow ( Fundulus sciadicus ) from the South Platte drainage, Colorado

Intra-sinoatrial nematodes were incidentally recognized in wild-caught Colorado Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum , JD) in 2020–2021 and in Colorado Plains Topminnow ( Fundulus sciadicus , PTM) in 2023-2024. PTM and JD were evaluated histologically. Nematodes dissected from PTM were used for morphologic evaluation and molecular identification. The first and second internal transcribed spacers (ITS1 and ITS2) of ribosomal DNA were sequenced. Sinoatrial nematodes were found in two of 1232 JD (0.2%) and nine of 110 PTM (8.2%). Worms caused dilation or aneurysm of the sinus venosus. One JD had severe sinus venosus phlebitis. Morphologic, histologic and molecular features were diagnostic for Contracaecum spp. This is the first identification of larval Contracaecum in PTM, the first record of an intravascular nematode in this species, and the first documentation of vascular localization of Contracaecum larvae in JD. Vascular pathology could result in increased susceptibility to predation and favour the completion of the nematode life cycle. Parasites could become detrimental to population survival, especially those that are stressed by ecological and anthropogenic factors.

Colorado

Modeled de facto reuse and contaminants of emerging concern in drinking water source waters

De facto reuse is the percentage of drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) intake potentially composed of effluent discharged from upstream wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Results from grab samples and a De Facto Reuse in our Nation's Consumable Supply (DRINCS) geospatial watershed model were used to quantify contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) concentrations at DWTP intakes to qualitatively compare exposure risks obtained by the two approaches. Between nine and 71 CECs were detected in grab samples. The number of upstream WWTP discharges ranged from 0 to >1,000; comparative de facto reuse results from DRINCS ranged from <0.1 to 13% during average flow and >80% during lower streamflows. Correlation between chemicals detected and DRINCS modeling results were observed, particularly DWTPs withdrawing from midsize water bodies. This comparison advances the utility of DRINCS to identify locations of DWTPs for future CEC sampling and treatment technology testing.

Journal - American Water Works Association

Combining local, landscape, and regional geographies to assess plant community vulnerability to invasion impact

Invasive species science has focused heavily on the invasive agent. However, management to protect native species also requires a proactive approach focused on resident communities and the features affecting their vulnerability to invasion impacts. Vulnerability is likely the result of factors acting across spatial scales, from local to regional, and it is the combined effects of these factors that will determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Here, we introduce an analytical framework that quantifies the scale-dependent impact of biological invasions on native richness from the shape of the native species–area relationship (SAR). We leveraged newly available, biogeographically extensive vegetation data from the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network to assess plant community vulnerability to invasion impact as a function of factors acting across scales. We analyzed more than 1000 SARs widely distributed across the USA along environmental gradients and under different levels of non-native plant cover. Decreases in native richness were consistently associated with non-native species cover, but native richness was compromised only at relatively high levels of non-native cover. After accounting for variation in baseline ecosystem diversity, net primary productivity, and human modification, ecoregions that were colder and wetter were most vulnerable to losses of native plant species at the local level, while warmer and wetter areas were most susceptible at the landscape level. We also document how the combined effects of cross-scale factors result in a heterogeneous spatial pattern of vulnerability. This pattern could not be predicted by analyses at any single scale, underscoring the importance of accounting for factors acting across scales. Simultaneously assessing differences in vulnerability between distinct plant communities at local, landscape, and regional scales provided outputs that can be used to inform policy and management aimed at reducing vulnerability to the impact of plant invasions.

Ecological Applications

An analysis of autocorrelation and bias in home range estimation

Home range estimation is routine practice in ecological research. While advances in animal tracking technology have increased our capacity to collect data to support home range analysis, these same advances have also resulted in increasingly autocorrelated data. Consequently, the question of which home range estimator to use on modern, highly autocorrelated tracking data remains open. This question is particularly relevant given that most estimators assume independently sampled data. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of autocorrelation on home range estimation. We base our study on an extensive data set of GPS locations from 369 individuals representing 27 species distributed across five continents. We first assemble a broad array of home range estimators, including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with four bandwidth optimizers (Gaussian reference function, autocorrelated-Gaussian reference function AKDE, Silvermans rule of thumb, and least squares cross-validation), Minimum Convex Polygon, and Local Convex Hull methods. Notably, all of these estimators except AKDE assume independent and identically distributed (IID) data. We then employ half-sample cross-validation to objectively quantify estimator performance, and the recently introduced effective sample size for home range area estimation ( N̂ area ) to quantify the information content of each data set. We found that AKDE 95% area estimates were larger than conventional IID-based estimates by a mean factor of 2. The median number of cross-validated locations included in the hold-out sets by AKDE 95% (or 50%) estimates was 95.3% (or 50.1%), confirming the larger AKDE ranges were appropriately selective at the specified quantile. Conversely, conventional estimates exhibited negative bias that increased with decreasing N̂ area . To contextualize our empirical results, we performed a detailed simulation study to tease apart how sampling frequency, sampling duration, and the focal animals movement conspire to affect range estimates. Paralleling our empirical results, the simulation study demonstrated that AKDE was generally more accurate than conventional methods, particularly for small N̂ area . While 72% of the 369 empirical data sets had >1,000 total observations, only 4% had an N̂ area >1,000, where 30% had an N̂ area <30. In this frequently encountered scenario of small N̂ area , AKDE was the only estimator capable of producing an accurate home range estimate on autocorrelated data.

Ecological Monographs

Parasites in kelp-forest food webs increase food-chain length, complexity, and specialization, but reduce connectance

We explored whether parasites are important in kelp forests by examining their effects on a high-quality, high-resolution kelp-forest food web. After controlling for generic effects of network size, parasites affected kelp-forest food web structure in some ways consistent with other systems. Parasites increased the trophic span of the web, increasing top predator vulnerability and the longest chain length. Unique links associated with parasites, such as concomitant predation (consumption of parasites along with their hosts by predators) increased the frequency of network motifs involving mutual consumption and decreased niche contiguity of free-living species. However, parasites also affected kelp-forest food web structure in ways not seen in other systems. Kelp-forest parasites are richer and more specialized than other systems. As a result, parasites reduced diet generality and decreased connectance in the kelp forest. Although mutual consumption motifs increased in frequency, this motif type was still a small fraction of all possible motifs, so their increase in frequency was not enough to compensate for the decrease in connectance caused by adding many specialist parasite species.

California

Effects of climate and water balance across grasslands of varying C 3 and C 4 grass cover

Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C 3 and C 4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C 3 and C 4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co-dominant C 3 and C 4 grass species or only dominant C 3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C 4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C 3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter-annual variability of cover of C 3 and C 4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C 4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were co-dominant with C 4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C 3 and C 4 grasses, but cover of C 4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Ecosphere

Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations

Conservation and management of spatially structured populations is challenging because solutions must consider where individuals are located, but also differential individual space use as a result of landscape heterogeneity. A recent extension of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, the ecological distance model, uses spatial encounter histories of individuals (e.g., a record of where individuals are detected across space, often sequenced over multiple sampling occasions), to estimate the relationship between space use and characteristics of a landscape, allowing simultaneous estimation of both local densities of individuals across space and connectivity at the scale of individual movement. We developed two model-based estimators derived from the SCR ecological distance model to quantify connectivity over a continuous surface: (1) potential connectivity—a metric of the connectivity of areas based on resistance to individual movement; and (2) density-weighted connectivity (DWC)—potential connectivity weighted by estimated density. Estimates of potential connectivity and DWC can provide spatial representations of areas that are most important for the conservation of threatened species, or management of abundant populations (i.e., areas with high density and landscape connectivity), and thus generate predictions that have great potential to inform conservation and management actions. We used a simulation study with a stationary trap design across a range of landscape resistance scenarios to evaluate how well our model estimates resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC. Correlation between true and estimated potential connectivity was high, and there was positive correlation and high spatial accuracy between estimated DWC and true DWC. We applied our approach to data collected from a population of black bears in New York, and found that forested areas represented low levels of resistance for black bears. We demonstrate that formal inference about measures of landscape connectivity can be achieved from standard methods of studying animal populations which yield individual encounter history data such as camera trapping. Resulting biological parameters including resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC estimate the spatial distribution and connectivity of the population within a statistical framework, and we outline applications to many possible conservation and management problems.

Ecosphere