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Results for “Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods”

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23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery

Rapid post-earthquake reconnaissance is important for emergency responses and rehabilitation by providing accurate and timely information about secondary hazards and impacts, including landslide, liquefaction, and building damage. Despite the extensive collection of geospatial data and satellite images, existing physics-based and data-driven methods suffer from low estimation performance due to the complex and event-specific causal dependencies underlying the cascading processes of earthquake-triggered hazards and impacts. Herein, we present a rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system that leverages advanced statistical causal inference and remote sensing techniques. The unique feature of this system is that it provides accurate and high-resolution estimations on a regional scale by jointly inferring multiple hazards and building damage from satellite images through modeling their causal dependencies. We evaluate our system on multiple seismic events from diverse countries around the globe. Our results corroborate that incorporating causal dependencies significantly improves large-scale estimation accuracy for multiple hazards and impacts compared to existing systems. The results also reveal quantitative causal mechanisms among earthquake-triggered multi-hazard and impact for multiple seismic events. Our system establishes a new way to extract and utilize the complex interactions of multiple hazards and impacts for effective disaster responses and advancing understanding of seismic geological processes.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2018

Effect of heat and singeing on stable hydrogen isotope ratios of bird feathers and implications for their use in determining geographic origin

Rationale Stable hydrogen isotope ( δ 2 H) ratios of animal tissues are useful for assessing movement and geographic origin of mobile organisms. However, it is uncertain whether heat and singeing affects feather δ 2 H values and thus subsequent geographic assignments. This is relevant for birds of conservation interest that are burned and killed at concentrating solar‐energy facilities that reflect sunlight to a receiving tower and generate a solar flux field. Methods We used a controlled experiment to test the effect of known heat loads (exposure to 200, 250 or 300°C for 1 min) on the morphology and δ 2 H values of feathers from two songbird species. Subsequently, we examined the effects of singeing on δ 2 H values of feathers from three other songbird species that were found dead in the field at a concentrating solar‐energy facility. Results Relative to control samples, heating caused visual morphological changes to feathers, including shriveling at 250°C and charring at 300°C. The δ 2 H values significantly declined by a mean of 27.8‰ in experimental samples exposed to 300°C. There was no statistically detectable difference between δ 2 H values of the singed and unsinged portions of field‐collected feathers from the same bird. Conclusions Limited singeing that did not dramatically alter the feather morphology did not substantially affect δ 2 H values of feathers from these songbirds. However, higher temperatures induced charring and reduced δ 2 H values. Therefore, severely charred feathers should be avoided when selecting feathers for δ 2 H‐based assessment of geographic origin.

Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry↗
USGS2020

Characterizing benthic macroinvertebrate and algal biological condition gradient models for California wadeable Streams, USA

The Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is a conceptual model that describes changes in aquatic communities under increasing levels of anthropogenic stress. The BCG helps decision-makers connect narrative water quality goals (e.g., maintenance of natural structure and function) to quantitative measures of ecological condition by linking index thresholds based on statistical distributions (e.g., percentiles of reference distributions) to expert descriptions of changes in biological condition along disturbance gradients. As a result, the BCG may be more meaningful to managers and the public than indices alone. To develop a BCG model, biological response to stress is divided into 6 levels of condition, represented as changes in biological structure (abundance and diversity of pollution sensitive versus tolerant taxa) and function. We developed benthic macroinvertebrate (BMI) and algal BCG models for California perennial wadeable streams to support interpretation of percentiles of reference-based thresholds for bioassessment indices (i.e., the California Stream Condition Index [CSCI] for BMI and the Algal Stream Condition Index [ASCI] for diatoms and soft-bodied algae). Two panels (one of BMI ecologists and the other of algal ecologists) each calibrated a general BCG model to California wadeable streams by first assigning taxa to specific tolerance and sensitivity attributes, and then independently assigning test samples (264 BMI and 248 algae samples) to BCG Levels 1–6. Consensus on the assignments was developed within each assemblage panel using a modified Delphi method. Panels then developed detailed narratives of changes in BMI and algal taxa that correspond to the 6 BCG levels. Consensus among experts was high, with 81% and 82% expert agreement within 0.5 units of assigned BCG level for BMIs and algae, respectively. According to both BCG models, the 10th percentiles index scores at reference sites corresponded to a BCG Level 3, suggesting that this type of threshold would protect against moderate changes in structure and function while allowing loss of some sensitive taxa. The BCG provides a framework to interpret changes in aquatic biological condition along a gradient of stress. The resulting relationship between index scores and BCG levels and narratives can help decision-makers select thresholds and communicate how these values protect aquatic life use goals.

California↗
USGS2007

Integration of seafloor point data in usSEABED

Sediments of the beach, nearshore, and continental shelves record a complex interplay of processes including wave energy and direction , currents, beach erosion or accretion, bluff or cliff retreat, fluvial input, sediment longshore and cross-shelf transport processes, contaminant content and transport, sediment sources and sinks, and others. In turn, sediments and rocks modify wave patterns, affect recreation and tourism, and provide habitat for fish, epifauna, and infauna. Character of the surficial seafloor also influences navigation, commercial and recreational fishing and gathering of other food sources, communication, piplines, national defense, and provides geologic resources including sand and gravel aggregates, minerals, and real or potential energy sources. The beaches, nearshore, and continental margins fall under overlapping levels of managerial responsibility between Federal, State, regional, and local government agencies and consortia. In addition, universities and other academic institutions investigate these places for pure or applied scientific reasons. Mapping is usually the first step in understanding any issue and is often comprised of remotely gathered geophysical data such as bathymetry and backscatter imagery, and groundtruthing; that is, the collection of physical and virtual samples to tie the remotely gathered data to reality. The physical samples are described and (or) carefully analyzed for grain-size information -- which records both the site's physical conditions and geologic past -- and commonly, for constituent components such as mineral and rock types (to determine onland sources and in situ chemical processes), carbonate and organic content and microfossils (for biological and oceanographic influences), and structure such as layering and bioturbation (for physical influences). The samples may also be subjected to physical tests such as comp[action analyses, liquefaction or plasticity limits, ans other parameters important when considering construction of offshore structures. In recent years, virtual sampling of the seafloor has become popular, through the use of towed video or photographic equipment and the addition of camera to oceanographic equipment such as corers and tripods. Before about ten years ago, most maps were made by hand. Recently, with the advent of desktop GIS packages, map making and resource analysis can be done nearly "on-the-fly" if geographically located data exist. While the problems of projection, scale, and resolution of digitized paper maps are commonly known amongst GIS-users, access to the original underlying point data allows for maps to be regenerated for digital use using statistically proven methods, provides increasing data density by including multiple studies, as well as allows the point data to be used in other ways than just mapping. These point data may be available in raw or refined or in worded descriptions. Raw data such as granulometric analyses can be manipulated through the use of known equations or empirical relationships to provide information about other parameters of the sediment, such as mean grainsize, sorting, erodability, or rugosity. If refined data are presented such as gravel, sand, and mud percentages, the parameter noted earlier may be estimated. In the case of worded descriptions, values for geologic terms can be assigned, for example, "fine sand" equate to 0.2 mm sized particles, to provide numeric terms for GIS or modeling purposes.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Insights and strategic opportunities from the USGS 2024 Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Interagency Workshop

Introduction In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published Circular 1490 titled, “Integrated Science for the Study of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in the Environment: A Strategic Science Vision for the U.S. Geological Survey” (Tokranov and others, 2021). Circular 1490 was created to be a resource for USGS scientists prioritizing and planning research related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and to be a guide for developing partnerships with other scientists, State and Federal agencies, and stakeholders engaged in PFAS research and management and mitigation of the environmental and human-health effects of PFAS. This USGS PFAS Strategic Science Vision document was intended to be the foundation for a “living strategic vision,” periodically providing updates on the state of USGS PFAS research, emerging PFAS data gaps and needs, and progress on interagency and stakeholder PFAS partnerships and priorities. To meet this objective, the USGS planned to host an Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop every 2–3 years. During September 10–12, 2024, the USGS hosted the first Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The Workshop brought together experts from other Federal agencies (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Food and Drug Administration, Department of Defense [Air Force, Army]), State agencies (Washington Fish and Wildlife, Virginia Department of Transportation), and academia (Harvard University, University of Maryland) to address key challenges relating to the measurement and modeling of PFAS and the implications for environmental health. Participants engaged in in-depth discussions centered around six pivotal topics related to PFAS: (1) sampling protocols, methods and interpretation; (2) environmental sources, source apportionment, and occurrence; (3) environmental fate and transport; (4) human and wildlife exposure routes and risk; (5) bioconcentration, bioaccumulation, and biomagnification; and (6) ecotoxicology and effects. Each topic had three breakout sessions. A recurrent theme of workshop discussions was how data on a nationwide scale for PFAS occurrence in various environmental matrices, including air, water, food crops, biota, soil, and streambed sediment could help to advance scientific understanding. Participants noted significant geospatial data gaps, particularly in the midwestern and southern United States and the Pacific Northwest. PFAS data collection tends to be more robust along the eastern seaboard and in California. Participants stressed how enhancing the integration of large and small datasets across various agencies could help to support national scale understanding of PFAS. To address these gaps, attendees suggested leveraging datasets from Federal entities like the USGS and the U.S. Department of Defense, State agencies, and municipal utility services to develop predictive contaminant detection and transport models. Improved coordination between water quality programs and USGS research could help to facilitate access to valuable data, leading to comprehensive databases that inform PFAS point (wastewater treatment plants and landfills) and nonpoint (runoff from land, atmospheric deposition, food packaging) sources, environmental transport mechanisms, environmental detection and concentrations, potential exposure routes, and health effects on different biota, including humans. A specific request was made to develop a map demarking the depth of modern (1953 or later) groundwater, which is susceptible to surface-derived anthropogenic (that is, human-made) contamination, based on tritium-age dating. Emphasis was placed on incorporation of hydrology, groundwater flow paths, groundwater–surface water interactions, and landscape factors in predictive statistical models as a step to improve contaminant source identification and tracking. Molecular fingerprinting approaches garnered attention as techniques to link specific PFAS mixtures detected in a sample to environmental sources and levels in biota (Dávila-Santiago and others, 2022). Integrating data from abiotic (that is, water, soil, and air) and biotic (that is, living organisms) systems identified as a research opportunity. For example, understanding the composition of soils and sediments, which include a mixture of mineral, plant, and animal components, could advance understanding of exposure pathways. The discussions highlighted opportunities to explore and understand the potential redistribution and biotic exposures of PFAS from biosolid and wastewater treatment plant effluent land application practices, in addition to atmospheric releases and discharges from landfill and wastewater treatment plants. Participants identified research gaps surrounding how these sources may contribute to contamination and may affect surrounding ecosystems, including a better definition of anthropogenic background concentrations. Moving forward, the collection of co-occurrence data was noted as a means to improve understanding of complex mixtures and to leverage companion modeling efforts focused on areas with high and low contamination levels to identify areas of concern and unaffected resources. Participants emphasized how centralized USGS databases and the establishment of sample-metadata archives can help to ensure that samples are preserved and accessible for future research. In conclusion, the workshop participants identified opportunities to bridge data gaps and improve measurement techniques, modeling frameworks, databases, and communication, to enhance the understanding of PFAS and their effects on environmental and human health. Upon completion of the workshop, participants indicated an interest in developing strategic data collection, modeling, and analytical approaches to address these challenges.

Open-File Report↗