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Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socio-ecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of 1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and 2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow-covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases and human health, recreation and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socio- ecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Ecological Applications↗

Centennial-scale reductions in nitrogen availability in temperate forests of the United States

Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes—especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations—are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into the foreseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage.

Scientific Reports↗

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus . Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America.

Ecosphere↗

Decreased atmospheric nitrogen deposition in eastern North America: Predicted responses of forest ecosystems

Historical increases in emissions and atmospheric deposition of oxidized and reduced nitrogen (N) provided the impetus for extensive, global-scale research investigating the effects of excess N in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, with several regions within the Eastern Deciduous Forest of the United States found to be susceptible to negative effects of excess N. The Clean Air Act and associated rules have led to decreases in emissions and deposition of oxidized N, especially in eastern U.S., representing a research challenge and opportunity for ecosystem ecologists and biogeochemists. The purpose of this paper is to predict changes in the structure and function of North American forest ecosystems in a future of decreased N deposition. Hysteresis is a property of a system wherein output is not a strict function of corresponding input, incorporating lag, delay, or history dependence, particularly when the response to decreasing input is different from the response to increasing input. We suggest a conceptual hysteretic model predicting varying lag times in recovery of soil acidification, plant biodiversity, soil microbial communities, forest carbon (C) and N cycling, and surface water chemistry toward pre-N impact conditions. Nearly all of these can potentially respond strongly to reductions in N deposition. Most responses are expected to show some degree of hysteresis, with the greatest delays in response occurring in processes most tightly linked to “slow pools” of N in wood and soil organic matter. Because experimental studies of declines in N loads in forests of North America are lacking and because of the expected hysteresis, it is difficult to generalize from experimental results to patterns expected from declining N deposition. These will likely be long-term phenomena, difficult to distinguish from other, concurrent environmental changes, including elevated atmospheric CO 2 , climate change, reductions in acidity, invasions of new species, and long-term vegetation responses to past disturbance.

Environmental Pollution↗

Disturbance-mediated accelerated succession in two Michigan forest types

In northern lower Michigan, logging accelerated sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ) dominance in a northern white cedar ( Thuja occidentals ) community, and clear-cutting and burning quickly converted certain sites dominated by mature jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) to early-succesional hardwoods, including Prunus, Populus , and Quercus . In both forest types the succeeding hardwoods should continue to increase in the future at the expense of the pioneer conifer species. In the cedar example, sugar maple was also increasing a an undisturbed, old-growth stand, but at a much reduced rate than in the logged stand. Traditionally, disturbance was through to set back succession to some earlier stage. However, out study sites and at least several other North American forest communities exhibited accelerated succession following a wide range of disturbances, including logging fire, ice storms, wind-throw, disease, insect attack, and herbicide spraying.

Michigan↗

Stand-level forest structure and avian habitat: Scale dependencies in predicting occurrence in a heterogeneous forest

We explored the role of stand-level forest structure and spatial extent of forest sampling in models of avian occurrence in northern hardwood-conifer forests for two species: black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) and ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus). We estimated site occupancy from point counts at 20 sites and characterized the forest structure at these sites at three spatial extents (0.2, 3.0, and 12.0 ha). Weight of evidence was greatest for habitat models using forest stand structure at the 12.0-ha extent and diminished only slightly at the 3.0-ha extent, a scale that was slightly larger than the average territory size of both species. Habitat models characterized at the 0.2-ha extent had low support, yet are the closest in design to those used in many of the habitat studies we reviewed. These results suggest that the role of stand-level vegetation may have been underestimated in the past, which will be of interest to land managers who use habitat models to assess the suitability of habitat for species of concern. Copyright ?? 2008 by the Society of American Foresters.

Forest Science↗

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Drought resistance is greater in montane conifers compared to coastal conifers in northern California

Frequent and intense droughts are rapidly altering stand dynamics in western North American forests. The ecological and geographical diversity of northern California provides a unique opportunity to measure these responses across species, habitat types, and levels of competitive pressure. This study used dendrochronological techniques and linear mixed-effects models to assess growth responses to drought in four montane and two coastal conifer species across 54 study sites (nine sites per species, 526 trees total) in northern California. Montane species included Abies magnifica var. shastensis , Picea breweriana , Pinus lambertiana , and Pinus monticola ; coastal species included Picea sitchensis and Tsuga heterophylla . Growth was evaluated from 2002 to 2018 and the drought period was from 2013 to 2015. There were significant differences among species and environments (coastal vs montane) in growth, drought resistance and resilience, and annual latewood proportion. Growth in montane species was generally positively related to moisture availability (Palmer Drought Severity Index) and negatively related to tree competition. The four montane species maintained relatively stable drought resistance, resilience, and latewood proportion across the study period. In contrast, growth in the two coastal species was influenced more by tree size and crown ratio than moisture availability or competition. As the 2013–2015 drought proceeded, coastal species showed marked reductions in drought resistance and resilience and increases in latewood proportion. Across the six conifer species, mean reductions in growth during and after the drought were generally less than 20% and never exceeded 40%. Compared to montane species, the lower resistance measured in coastal species suggests greater risk for increased stress and mortality in the event of more severe, prolonged, and/or frequent droughts.

California↗

Fire and amphibians in North America

Information on amphibian responses to fire and fuel reduction practices is critically needed due to potential declines of species and the prevalence of new, more intensive fire management practices in North American forests. The goals of this review are to summarize the known and potential effects of fire and fuels management on amphibians and their aquatic habitats, and to identify information gaps to help direct future scientific research. Amphibians as a group are taxonomically and ecologically diverse; in turn, responses to fire and associated habitat alteration are expected to vary widely among species and among geographic regions. Available data suggest that amphibian responses to fire are spatially and temporally variable and incompletely understood. Much of the limited research has addressed short-term (1–3 years) effects of prescribed fire on terrestrial life stages of amphibians in the southeastern United States. Information on the long-term negative effects of fire on amphibians and the importance of fire for maintaining amphibian communities is sparse for the majority of taxa in North America. Given the size and severity of recent wildland fires and the national effort to reduce fuels on federal lands, future studies are needed to examine the effects of these landscape disturbances on amphibians. We encourage studies to address population-level responses of amphibians to fire by examining how different life stages are affected by changes in aquatic, riparian, and upland habitats. Research designs need to be credible and provide information that is relevant for fire managers and those responsible for assessing the potential effects of various fuel reduction alternatives on rare, sensitive, and endangered amphibian species.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Size of modern megafire not unprecedented and a cumulative fire deficit persists

Background The area burned by wildfires in western North American forests has grown since the 1980s, largely driven by individual “megafires.” Despite breaking state records for fire size, it remains uncertain whether these large fires are unprecedented, owing to limited knowledge of the area burned during historical fire regimes (pre-1900). We used new methods and 14 tree-ring fire-scar sites to evaluate whether the area burned by Arizona’s largest fire on record – the 217,741 ha 2011 Wallow Fire – was unprecedented in a multi-century context. Using the 375-year reconstruction of annual area burned, we also assessed the departure of the modern fire regime by introducing cumulative fire deficit, calculated as the cumulative sum of 20-year area burned anomalies. Results The size of the Wallow Fire was exceptional in the modern era, but comparable to the extent of burning in 1748, 1847, and 1851 on the same landscape. Notably, years of extensive fire (50,000–100,000 ha) were common on this landscape prior to 1900. The average return interval for fires exceeding 100,000 ha was just 20 years. By contrast, the 2011 Wallow Fire was the only modern fire > 10,000 ha in our study area ( n = 129, 1970–2024), leading to an 85% reduction in average annual area burned. This exceptional departure from the historical fire regime generated a cumulative fire deficit exceeding 2.0 million hectares by 2011, which continues to increase despite the occurrence of the large Wallow Fire. Conclusions Although the modern wildfire crisis is characterized by large, severe wildfires, historical fire regimes also included extensive fires. On an Arizona landscape, the sizes of several historical fires were on par with the largest wildfire on record. Similar historical precedent of large fires is likely true elsewhere in dry conifer forests of western North America. These findings underscore that future wildfire events could be even larger, and likely more severe, as fuels accumulate and the climate grows warmer and drier. Forest restoration aimed at reestablishing characteristic disturbance regimes, including frequent, large, low-severity fires, could be used to assist recovery of these ecosystems resulting from the cumulative fire deficit.

Arizona↗

Photosynthetic and growth response of sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) mature trees and seedlings to calcium, magnesium, and nitrogen additions in the Catskill Mountains, NY, USA

Decline of sugar maple in North American forests has been attributed to changes in soil calcium (Ca) and nitrogen (N) by acidic precipitation. Although N is an essential and usually a limiting factor in forests, atmospheric N deposition may cause N-saturation leading to loss of soil Ca. Such changes can affect carbon gain and growth of sugar maple trees and seedlings. We applied a 2 2 factorial arrangement of N and dolomitic limestone containing Ca and Magnesium (Mg) to 12 forest plots in the Catskill Mountain region of NY, USA. To quantify the short-term effects, we measured photosynthetic-light responses of sugar maple mature trees and seedlings two or three times during two summers. We estimated maximum net photosynthesis ( An-max ) and its related light intensity ( PAR at An-max ), apparent quantum efficiency ( A qe ), and light compensation point ( LCP ). To quantify the long-term effects, we measured basal area of living mature trees before and 4 and 8 years after treatment applications. Soil and foliar chemistry variables were also measured. Dolomitic limestone increased Ca, Mg, and pH in the soil Oe horizon. Mg was increased in the B horizon when comparing the plots receiving N with those receiving CaMg. In mature trees, foliar Ca and Mg concentrations were higher in the CaMg and N+CaMg plots than in the reference or N plots; foliar Ca concentration was higher in the N+CaMg plots compared with the CaMg plots, foliar Mg was higher in the CaMg plots than the N+CaMg plots; An-max was maximized due to N+CaMg treatment; A qe decreased by N addition; and PAR at An-max increased by N or CaMg treatments alone, but the increase was maximized by their combination. No treatment effect was detected on basal areas of living mature trees four or eight years after treatment applications. In seedlings, An-max was increased by N+CaMg addition. The reference plots had an open herbaceous layer, but the plots receiving N had a dense monoculture of common woodfern in the forest floor, which can impede seedling survival.

New York↗

Assessment and management of dead-wood habitat

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is in the process of revising its resource management plans for six districts in western and southern Oregon as the result of the settlement of a lawsuit brought by the American Forest Resource Council. A range of management alternatives is being considered and evaluated including at least one that will minimize reserves on O&C lands. In order to develop the bases for evaluating management alternatives, the agency needs to derive a reasonable range of objectives for key issues and resources. Dead-wood habitat for wildlife has been identified as a key resource for which decision-making tools and techniques need to be refined and clarified. Under the Northwest Forest Plan, reserves were to play an important role in providing habitat for species associated with dead wood (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, 1994). Thus, the BLM needs to: 1) address the question of how dead wood will be provided if reserves are not included as a management strategy in the revised Resource Management Plan, and 2) be able to evaluate the effects of alternative land management approaches. Dead wood has become an increasingly important conservation issue in managed forests, as awareness of its function in providing wildlife habitat and in basic ecological processes has dramatically increased over the last several decades (Laudenslayer et al., 2002). A major concern of forest managers is providing dead wood habitat for terrestrial wildlife. Wildlife in Pacific Northwest forests have evolved with disturbances that create large amounts of dead wood; so, it is not surprising that many species are closely associated with standing (snags) or down, dead wood. In general, the occurrence or abundance of one-quarter to one-third of forest-dwelling vertebrate wildlife species, is strongly associated with availability of suitable dead-wood habitat (Bunnell et al., 1999; Rose et al., 2001). In Oregon and Washington, approximately 150 species of wildlife are reported to use dead wood in forests (O’Neil et al., 2001). Forty-seven sensitive and special-status species are associated with dead wood (Appendix A). These are key species for management consideration because concern over small or declining populations is often related to loss of suitable dead-wood habitat (Marshall et al., 1996). Primary excavators (woodpeckers) also are often the focus of dead-wood management, because they perform keystone functions in forest ecosystems by creating cavities for secondary cavity-nesters (Martin and Eadie, 1999; Aubry and Raley, 2002). A diverse guild of secondary cavity-users (including swallows, bluebirds, several species of ducks and owls, ash-throated flycatcher, flying squirrel, bats, and many other species) is unable to excavate dead wood, and therefore relies on cavities created by woodpeckers for nesting sites. Suitable nest cavities are essential for reproduction, and their availability limits population size (Newton, 1994). Thus, populations of secondary cavity-nesters are tightly linked to the habitat requirements of primary excavators. Although managers often focus on decaying wood as habitat for wildlife, the integral role dead wood plays in ecological processes is an equally important consideration for management. Rose et al. (2001) provide a thorough review of the ecological functions of dead wood in Pacific Northwest forests, briefly summarized here. Decaying wood functions in: soil development and productivity, nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, and carbon storage. From ridge tops, to headwater streams, to estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems, decaying wood is fundamental to diverse terrestrial and aquatic food webs. Wildlife species that use dead wood for cover or feeding are linked to these ecosystem processes through a broad array of functional roles, including facilitation of decay and trophic interactions with other organisms (Marcot, 2002; Marcot, 2003). For example, by puncturing bark and fragmenting sapwood, woodpeckers create sites favorable for wood-decaying organisms (Farris et al., 2004), which in turn create habitat for other species and facilitate nutrient cycling. Small mammals that use down wood for cover function in the dispersal of plant seeds and fungal spores (Carey et al., 1999). Resident cavitynesting birds may regulate insect populations by preying on overwintering arthropods (Jackson, 1979; Kroll and Fleet, 1979). These examples illustrate how dead wood not only directly provides habitat for a large number of wildlife species, but also forms the foundation of functional webs that critically influence forest ecosystems (Marcot, 2002; Marcot, 2003). The important and far-reaching implications of management of decaying wood highlight the need for conservation of dead-wood resources in managed forests. Consideration of the key ecological functions of species associated with dead wood can help guide management of dead wood in a framework consistent with the paradigm of ecosystem management (Marcot and Vander Heyden, 2001; Marcot, 2002.) As more information is revealed about the ecological and habitat values of decaying wood, concern has increased over a reduction in the current amounts of dead wood relative to historic levels (Ohmann and Waddell, 2002). Past management practices have tended to severely reduce amounts of dead wood throughout all stages of forest development (Hansen et al., 1991). The large amounts of legacy wood that characterize young post-disturbance forests are not realized in managed stands, because most of the wood volume is removed at harvest for economic and safety reasons. Mid-rotation thinning is used to “salvage” some mortality that might otherwise occur due to suppression, so fewer snags are recruited in mid-seral stages. Harvest rotations of 80 years or less truncate tree size in managed stands, and thus limit the production of large-diameter wood. As a consequence of these practices, dead wood has been reduced by as much as 90% after two rotations of managed Douglas-fir (Rose et al., 2001). Large legacy deadwood is becoming a scarce, critical habitat that will take decades to centuries to replace. Furthermore, management continues to have important direct and indirect effects on the amount and distribution of dead wood in forests. Current guidelines for managing dead wood may be inadequate to maintain habitat for all associated species because they largely focus on a single use of dead wood (nesting habitat) by a small suite of species (cavity-nesting birds), and may under represent the sizes and amounts of dead wood used by many wildlife species (Rose et al., 2001, Wilhere, 2003).

Open-File Report↗

Hematozoa of forest birds in American Samoa - Evidence for a diverse, indigenous parasite fauna from the South Pacific

Introduced avian diseases pose a significant threat to forest birds on isolated island archipelagos, especially where most passerines are endemic and many groups of blood-sucking arthropods are either absent or only recently introduced. We conducted a blood parasite survey of forest birds from the main islands of American Samoa to obtain baseline information about the identity, distribution and prevalence of hematozoan parasites in this island group. We examined Giemsa-stained blood smears from 857 individual birds representing 20 species on Tutuila, Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u islands. Four hematozoan parasites were identified - Plasmodium circumflexum (1%, 12/857), Trypanosoma avium (4%, 32/857), microfilaria (9%, 76/857), and an Atoxoplasma sp. (<1%, 2/857). Infections were found in seven indigenous bird species from the archipelago. Overall prevalence of infection varied significantly among bird species, individual islands, and between Tutuila and the more isolated Manu'a group of islands. Infections with Plasmodium, Trypanosoma, and filarial worms occurred throughout the archipelago, including islands without introduced birds. There was a statistically significant difference in the overall prevalence of infection before and after Hurricane Olaf in February 2005, suggesting that catastrophic hurricanes may influence the dynamics of parasite infections. Given the central location of American Samoa in the South Pacific, it is likely that avian malaria and other hematozoan parasites are indigenous and widespread at least as far as the central South Pacific. Their natural occurrence may provide some immunological protection to indigenous birds in the event that other closely related parasites are accidentally introduced to the region.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗

Environment and paleoecology of a 12 ka mid-North American Younger Dryas forest chronicled in tree rings

Until now, availability of wood from the Younger Dryas abrupt cooling event (YDE) in N. America ca. 12.9 to 11.6 ka has been insufficient to develop high-resolution chronologies for refining our understanding of YDE conditions. Here we present a multi-proxy tree-ring chronology (ring widths, &ldquo;events&rdquo; evidenced by microanatomy and macro features, stable isotopes) from a buried black spruce forest in the Great Lakes area (Liverpool East site), spanning 116 yr at ca. 12,000 cal yr BP. During this largely cold and wet period, the proxies convey a coherent and precise forest history including frost events, tilting, drowning and burial in estuarine sands as the Laurentide Ice Sheet deteriorated. In the middle of the period, a short mild interval appears to have launched the final and largest episode of tree recruitment. Ultimately the tops of the trees were sheared off after death, perhaps by wind-driven ice floes, culminating an interval of rising water and sediment deposition around the base of the trees. Although relative influences of the continental ice sheet and local effects from ancestral Lake Michigan are indeterminate, the tree-ring proxies provide important insight into environment and ecology of a N. American YDE boreal forest stand.

Quaternary Research↗

Satellite-detected forest disturbance forecasts American marten population decline: The case for supportive space-based monitoring

Limited monitoring resources often constrain rigorous monitoring practices to species or populations of conservation concern. Insufficient monitoring can induce a tautology as lack of monitoring resources makes it difficult to determine whether a species or population deserves additional monitoring resources. When in-situ monitoring resources are limited, remote habitat monitoring could be a useful supplementary tool, as linking parameterized species distribution models to spatially explicit time-series of environmental correlates allows iterative prediction of population change. Yet the performance of predictive forecasts or hindcasts has been difficult to evaluate. We paired contemporary field data, historic population estimates, and a remotely-sensed archive of landscape change to evaluate predictions of American marten ( Martes americana ) population decline owing to habitat loss in Maine, USA. We estimated contemporary spatial patterns in marten density relative to landscape disturbance with spatial capture-recapture models. We compared current density estimates to historical density calculations to evaluate population decline, and compared historical calculations to habitat-based model predictions to evaluate the efficacy of habitat monitoring as a proxy for direct monitoring. Marten density was negatively associated with the proportion of surrounding regenerating forest, and point estimates within focal townships were 50–80% lower than historical calculations. Habitat-based hindcasts of marten density across our entire focal area interest suggested a smaller population decline (roughly 50%) within our focal area. Thus, although habitat-based predictions underpredicted marten decline, they provided correct directional inference. Habitat monitoring and predictions from species distribution models may provide useful inference about population changes given trends in habitat at limited expense when in-situ information is lacking.

Maine↗

Effects of Climate and land use on diversity, prevalence, and seasonal transmission of avian hematozoa in American Samoa

The indigenous forest birds of American Samoa are increasingly threatened by changing patterns of rainfall and temperature that are associated with climate change as well as environmental stressors associated with agricultural and urban development, invasive species, and new introductions of avian diseases and disease vectors. Long term changes in their distribution, diversity, and population sizes could have significant impacts on the ecological integrity of the islands because of their critical role as pollinators and seed dispersers. We documented diversity of vector borne parasites on Tutuila and Ta&lsquo;u Islands over a 10-year period to expand earlier observations of Plasmodium, Trypanosoma , and filarial parasites, to provide better parasite identifications, and to create a better baseline for detecting new parasite introductions. We also identified potential mosquito vectors of avian Plasmodium and Trypanosoma , determined whether land clearing and habitat alterations associated with subsistence farming within the National Park of American Samoa can influence parasite prevalence, and determined whether parasite prevalence is correlated with seasonal changes in rainfall, temperature and wind speed. Three taxonomically distinct lineages of Plasmodium were identified from mosquito vectors and forest birds based on partial sequence data from parasite mitochondrial genes. All three have been described from passerine and galliform birds in Australasia. Two lineages, SCEDEN01 and ORW1, had elongate gametocytes and large schizonts that were consistent with species of Plasmodium in the subgenus Giavannolaia, but were taxonomically distinct from known morphological species of Plasmodium based on a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of a 478 bp region of the parasite cytochrome b gene. Both are candidates for description as new species. The third lineage (GALLUS02) was detected only in mosquito vectors on Tutuila and was similar in cytochrome b sequence to P. juxtanucleare , a pathogenic species of Plasmodium from chickens and other galliform birds from Australasia, Africa, and South America. Plasmodium relictum , the malarial parasite that has had such a devastating impact on Hawaiian forest birds, was not detected. We observed large, striated trypanosomes in avian hosts from both Tutuila and Ta&lsquo;u Islands that fell within the same taxonomic clade as T. corvi and T. culicavium based on 18S ribosomal DNA sequence. We also observed sheathed microfilariae with pointed tails that had some morphological similarities to microfilaria from species of Pelecitus, Struthiofilaria and Eulimdana , but identification will require recovery and examination of adult filarial worms from the connective tissue or body cavities of infected birds. We also observed one or more species of haemococcidians (Isospora, synonym = Atoxoplasma ) within circulating lymphocytes from multiple avian host species. Overall prevalence of Plasmodium was higher on Ta&lsquo;u (22%, 75/341) than Tutuila (9.2%, 27/294), with most infections occurring in Polynesian starlings, Samoan starlings, Wattled honeyeaters, and Cardinal honeyeaters. Prevalence was relatively constant from year to year and between seasons at individual study sites, but varied among study sites, with highest rates of infection in areas with agricultural activity at Faleasao (37.4%, 73/195, Ta&lsquo;u Island) and Amalau Valley (9.7%, 21/216, Tutuila Island). Prevalence in more remote areas of the National Park of American Samoa was lower, ranging from 1.4% (2/146) at Laufuti and Luatele on Ta&lsquo;u to 7.7% (6/78) at Olo Ridge on Tutuila. Similar trends were evident for infections with Trypanosoma and filarial worms. Overall prevalence was not influenced significantly by warmer, wet (summer) or cooler, dry (winter) season. We detected Plasmodium infections in Culex sitiens and C. quinquefasciatus through either salivary gland and midgut dissections or PCR amplification of parasite cytochrome b genes in pooled or individual samples of mosquitoes that were collected on Tutuila. Pooled or individual Aedes oceanicus, A. polynesiensis, A. tutuilae, A. upolensis, A. nocturnus, Aedes (Finlaya) (mixed pools of A. samoanus, A. oceanicus, A. tutuilae), Aedes (Stegomyia) (mixed pools of A. aegypti, A. upolensis, A. polynesiensis ), and C. annulirostris were negative for Plasmodium , but we detected infections with Trypanosoma through midgut and salivary gland dissections in a single C. sitiens from Amalau Valley, Tutuila and three A. oceanicus from Faleasao, Ta&lsquo;u. Two of the A. oceanicus from Faleasao amplified successfully with Trypanosoma primers, but sequences were distinctly different from those obtained from avian hosts. We found a strong association between land use and prevalence of mosquito-transmitted parasites on Ta&lsquo;u Island with odds of being infected more than 20 times greater in agricultural plots than more remote native forest. This relationship was evident on Tutuila Island but not statistically significant because of the close proximity of study sites and observed movement of birds between native forest and agricultural land. Our data support previous studies that have suggested that Plasmodium and other vector-borne parasites are part of the indigenous parasite fauna in American Samoa. Transmission dynamics appear to be affected by environmental changes associated with land use practices.

HI↗

Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Alaska, Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, Califo↗