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Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in fractured rock in the Newark basin, Rockland County, New York

Groundwater in the Newark basin aquifer flows primarily through discrete water-bearing zones parallel to the strike and dip of bedding, whereas flow perpendicular to the strike is restricted, thereby imparting anisotropy to the groundwater flow field. The finite-element model SUTRA was used to represent bedrock structure in the aquifer by spatially varying the orientation of the hydraulic conductivity tensor to reflect variations in the strike and dip of the bedding. Directions of maximum and medium hydraulic conductivity were oriented parallel to the bedding, and the direction of minimum hydraulic conductivity was oriented perpendicular to the bedding. Groundwater flow models were prepared to simulate local flow in the vicinity of the Spring Valley well field and regional flow through the Newark basin aquifer. The Newark basin contains sedimentary rocks deposited as alluvium during the Late Triassic and is one of a series of basins that developed when Mesozoic rifting of the super continent Pangea created the Atlantic Ocean. The westward-dipping basin is filled with interbedded facies of coarse-grained to fine-grained rocks that were intruded by diabase associated with Jurassic volcanism. The Newark basin aquifer is bounded to the north and east by the Palisades sill and to the west by the Ramapo Fault. Although the general dip of bedding is toward the fault, mapping of conglomerate beds indicates the rocks are folded into broad anticlines and synclines. An alternative, more uniform pattern of regional structure, based on interpolated strike and dip measurements from a number of sources, has also been proposed. Two groundwater flow models (A for the former type of bedrock structure and B for the latter type) were developed to represent these alternative depictions of bedrock structure. Transient simulations were calibrated to reproduce measured water-level recoveries in a 9.3 mi&sup2 area surrounding the Spring Valley well field during a 5-day aquifer test in 1992. The models represented a 330-ft thick rock mass divided vertically into 10 equally spaced layers and were calibrated through nonlinear regression. Results of model B best matched the observed water-level recoveries with an estimated hydraulic conductivity of 9.5 ft/day, specific storage of 7.6 x 10 -6 ft -1, and K max : K min anisotropy ratio (hydraulic conductivity parallel to bedding: perpendicular to bedding) of 72:1. Model error was 50 percent greater in model A because the assumed structure did not match the actual strike of bedding in this area. Steady-state simulations of regional flow through the 85.4-mi2 modeled extent of the Newark basin aquifer represented both the alluvial aquifer beneath the Mawah River and the fractured bedrock. The rock mass was divided into two aquifer units: an upper 500-ft thick unit divided into 10 equally spaced layers through which most groundwater is assumed to flow and a lower unit divided into 7 layers with increasing thickness. Models were calibrated through nonlinear regression to average water levels measured in 140 wells from August 2005 through April 2007. Water levels simulated using the two models were similar and generally matched those observed, and the average recharge rate estimated using both models was 19 inches/year for the simulated period. Estimated transmissivity parallel to the strike of bedding (1,100 ft&sup2/d) was uniform in two transmissivity (T) zones in model A, but in model B the transmissivity of a high T zone (1,600 ft&sup2/d), delineated on the basis of aquifer test data, was slightly greater than in a low T zone (1,300 ft&sup2/d). The K max : K min anisotropy was estimated to be 58:1 in model A and 410:1 in model B, so the proportion of flow perpendicular to bedding is less in model B than in model A. Distributions of groundwater age simulated with models A and B are similar and indicate that most shallow ground-water (225 ft below the bedrock surface) is 5 t

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluating the use of side-scan sonar for detecting freshwater mussel beds in turbid river environments

Side-scan sonar is a valuable tool for mapping habitat features in many aquatic systems suggesting it may also be useful for locating sedentary biota. The objective of this study was to determine if side-scan sonar could be used to identify freshwater mussel (unionid) beds and the required environmental conditions. We used side-scan sonar to develop a series of mussel-bed reference images by placing mussel shells within homogenous areas of fine and coarse substrates. We then used side-scan sonar to map a 32-km river reach during spring and summer. Using our mussel-bed reference images, several river locations were identified where mussel beds appeared to exist in the scanned images and we chose a subset of sites ( n = 17) for field validation. The validation confirmed that ~60% of the sites had mussel beds and ~80% had some mussels or shells present. Water depth was significantly related to our ability to predict mussel-bed locations: predictive ability was greatest at depths of 1–2 m, but decreased in water >2-m deep. We determined side-scan sonar is an effective tool for preliminary assessments of mussel presence during times when they are located at or above the substrate surface and in relatively fine substrates excluding fine silt.

Oklahoma

Twenty-First Annual report of the Director of the United States Geological Survey, 1899-1900: Part VII - Texas

Area treated. —The Black and Grand prairies of Texas and southern Indian Territory comprise about 50,000 square miles (see Pl. LXV, in pocket)—an area equal to that of fifty of the quadrangles mapped and described by the United States Geological Survey in its Geologic Atlas of the United States. The accompanying general geologic map (Pl. LXVI, in pocket) is a condensed presentation of the geology usually shown on that number of atlas sheets as published in folio form. Most of these quadrangles have been studied by the writer and his former assistants. Sources of data. —An entirely satisfactory presentation of these results is still impossible by reason of the lack of adequate maps. The topographic maps of the United States Geological Survey, which cover 24 of the 50 units of area, were made in the earlier years of the Survey and with a contour interval insufficient for the expression of the geology. For the remaining portion of the area it was necessary to use as a base the Land Office maps of the State of Texas. The conclusions herein presented, often condensed in a short paragraph, are founded upon a large amount of paleontologic, stratigraphic, and topographic data. The results, so far as they refer to the Black and Grand prairies, are the outcome of studies made by the writer since 1882, sometimes independently, sometimes with the assistance of the United States Geological Survey, and during two years in connection with the Texas Geological Survey. In times past he has been assisted in this work by his former students, C. C. McCulloch, now captain, U. S. A.; Messrs. Wilson T. Davidson and L. T. Dashiel; Mr. Joseph A. Taff, now of the United States Geological Survey; Dr. J. W. Stone, Mr. N. F. Drake, and Mr. G. H. Ragsdale. Inasmuch as the details which these gentlemem worked out were problems of the writer's suggestion, he has incorporated them into this paper, and here acknowledges indebtedness therefor. Upon the writer's retirement from the Texas Survey, Mr. Taff continued the work of mapping the region. He published two reports, which have been freely used and which have been of great assistance in the preparation of this paper. Importance of paleontology. —In addition to the collection of the data which appear in the text and illustrations, much paleontologic research has been necessary in order to classify the formations. Paleontology is the most reliable guide in determining the position of any bed in the geologic series with a view to ascertaining the depth, from any particular portion of the surface, of the underground waters in the Cretaceous regions of Texas. If a few species of fossils, such as can be found in any locality, be sent to one familiar with the sequence of the beds, he can predict within a few feet the depth below the surface of any particular water-bearing stratum in the series. It was a labor of years to disentangle the preexisting confusion concerning the occurrence and succession of these fossils and their bearings upon the determination and definition of the strata. Their further consideration has been left to Mr. T. W. Stanton, who, it is presumed, will make final publication of the descriptions and the scientific results. This is not a final and complete report. Detailed field work is desirable in many localities. Chemical analyses of water and illustrations of typical scenery should be more complete, but these were not obtainable with the means and time at the writer's disposal. When appreciation of geologic investigation shall have been awakened in Texas and the region under discussion shall have been studied more closely by resident students, in the manner now common in other parts of the United States, the data here presented will be largely increased and refined, and the conclusions will doubtless be correspondingly amended and rectified.

Texas

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Nacaome, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Nacaome that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Nacaome, Rio Grande, and Rio Guacirope. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Nacaome as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Nacaome, Rio Grande, and Rio Guacirope at Nacaome were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at two bridges. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Nacaome at Nacaome, 5,040 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Nacaome en Las Mercedes, located about 13 kilometers upstream from Nacaome. One of the discharges, 4,549 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 16 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 1,922 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges is 3,770 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharges for Rio Grande, 3,890 cubic meters per second, and Rio Guacirope, 1,080 cubic meters per second, were also computed by adjusting the weighted-average 50-year-flood discharge for the Rio Nacaome en Las Mercedes gaging station for the difference in drainage areas between the gage and these river reaches.

Nacaome

An empirical model for estimating phytoplankton productivity in estuaries

e have previously shown that primary productivity in San Francisco Bay, USA, is highly correlated with phytoplankton biomass B (chlorophyll a concentration) and an index of light avallability in the photic zone, 2, I, (photic depth times surface irradiance). To test the generality of this relation, we compiled data from San Francisco Bay and 5 other USA estuarine systems (Neuse and South Rivers, Puget Sound, Delaware Bay and Hudson River Plume), and regressed daily produclvity J' P (mg C m-2 d-') against the composite parameter B Z, I,. Regressions for each estuary were significant and typically over 80 % of the varialon in P was correlated with variations in B Z,I,. Moreover, the pooled data (n = 211) from 4 estuaries where methodologies were comparable fell along one regression line (r2= 0.82), indicating that primary productivity can be estimated in a diversity of estuarine waters from simple measures of phytoplankton biomass and hght availability. This implies that physiological variabhty (e. g. responses to variations in nutrient availabhty, temperature, sahnity, photoperiod) is a secondary control on phytoplankton production in nutrient-rich estuaries, and that one empirical function can be used to estimate seasonal variations in productivity or to map productivity along estuarine gradients of phytoplankton biomass and turbidity.

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Shallow groundwater in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska—Conceptualization and simulation of flow

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the Upper Cook Inlet Basin and is currently undergoing rapid population growth outside of municipal water and sewer service areas. In response to concerns about the effects of increasing water use on future groundwater availability, a study was initiated between the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goals of the study were (1) to compile existing data and collect new data to support hydrogeologic conceptualization of the study area, and (2) to develop a groundwater flow model to simulate flow dynamics important at the regional scale. The purpose of the groundwater flow model is to provide a scientific framework for analysis of regional-scale groundwater availability. To address the first study goal, subsurface lithologic data were compiled into a database and were used to construct a regional hydrogeologic framework model describing the extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. The hydrogeologic framework model synthesizes existing maps of surficial geology and conceptual geochronologies developed in the study area with the distribution of lithologies encountered in hundreds of boreholes. The geologic modeling package Geological Surveying and Investigation in Three Dimensions (GSI3D) was used to construct the hydrogeologic framework model. In addition to characterizing the hydrogeologic framework, major groundwater-budget components were quantified using several different techniques. A land-surface model known as the Deep Percolation Model was used to estimate in-place groundwater recharge across the study area. This model incorporates data on topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. Model-simulated surface runoff was consistent with observed streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated on the basis of records from major water suppliers during 2004-2010. Fluxes between groundwater and surface water were estimated during field investigations on several small streams. Regional groundwater flow patterns were characterized by synthesizing previous water-table maps with a synoptic water-level measurement conducted during 2009. Time-series water-level data were collected at groundwater and lake monitoring stations over the study period (2009–present). Comparison of historical groundwater-level records with time-series groundwater-level data collected during this study showed similar patterns in groundwater-level fluctuation in response to precipitation. Groundwater-age data collected during previous studies show that water moves quickly through the groundwater system, suggesting that the system responds quickly to changes in climate forcing. Similarly, the groundwater system quickly returns to long-term average conditions following variability due to seasonal or interannual changes in precipitation. These analyses indicate that the groundwater system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, characterized by water-level fluctuation about a constant average state, with no long-term trends in aquifer-system storage. To address the second study goal, a steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to simulate regional groundwater flow patterns. The groundwater flow model was bounded by physically meaningful hydrologic features, and appropriate internal model boundaries were specified on the basis of conceptualization of the groundwater system resulting in a three-layer model. Calibration data included 173 water‑level measurements and 18 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along small streams. Comparison of simulated and observed heads and flows showed that the model accurately simulates important regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system. This model is therefore appropriate for studying regional-scale groundwater availability. Mismatch between model-simulated and observed hydrologic quantities is likely because of the coarse grid size of the model and seasonal transient effects. Next steps towards model refinement include the development of a transient groundwater flow model that is suitable for analysis of seasonal variability in hydraulic heads and flows. In addition, several important groundwater budget components remain poorly quantified—including groundwater outflow to the Matanuska River, Little Susitna River, and Knik Arm.

Alaska

Developing a state water plan: Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1973

This report is the tenth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series are prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Division of Water Resources and are designed to provide data to enable interested parties such as legislators, administrators, and planners to keep abreast of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others (see references, p. 25), contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawals, water-level changes, and related changes in precipitation and streamflow. Supplementary data such as graphs showing chemical quality of water and maps showing water-table configuration are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas for which applicable data are available and are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions. The report includes individual discussions of the most important areas of ground-water withdrawal in the State for the calendar year 1972 and for the 10-year period 1963-72. Water-level fluctuations, however, are described for the periods spring 1972 to spring 1973 and spring 1963 to spring 1973. Many of the data used in the report were collected by the Geological Survey in cooperation with the Division of Water Rights, Utah Department of Natural Resources.

Utah

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Sonaguera, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Sonaguera that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Sonaguera and its tributary, Rio Juan Lazaro. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Sonaguera as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for an estimated 50-year-flood on Rio Sonaguera and Rio Juan Lazaro at Sonaguera were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and a ground survey at the bridge. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Sonaguera or Rio Juan Lazaro; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Sonaguera above the confluence with Rio Juan Lazaro, 194 cubic meters per second; for Rio Juan Lazaro at its mouth, 168 cubic meters per second, and for Rio Sonaguera at the downstream end of the study area, 282 cubic meters per second; were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation.

Sonaguera

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for La Lima, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of La Lima that would be inundated by Rio Chamelecon with a discharge of 500 cubic meters per second, the approximate capacity of the river channel through the city of La Lima. The 50-year flood (2,400 cubic meters per second), the original design flow to be mapped, would inundate the entire area surveyed for this municipality. Because water-surface elevations of the 50-year flood could not be mapped properly without substantially expanding the area of the survey, the available data were used instead to estimate the channel capacity of Rio Chamelecon in La Lima by trial-and-error runs of different flows in a numerical model and to estimate the increase in height of levees needed to contain flows of 1,000 and 2,400 cubic meters per second. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of La Lima as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for various discharges on Rio Chamelecon at La Lima were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at three bridges. Top-of-levee or top-of-channel-bank elevations and locations at the cross sections were critical to estimating the channel capacity of Rio Chamelecon. These elevations and locations are provided along with the water-surface elevations for the 500-cubic-meter-per-second flow of Rio Chamelecon. Also, water-surface elevations of the 1,000 and 2,400 cubic-meter-per-second flows are provided, assuming that the existing levees are raised to contained the flows.

La Lima

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Siguatepeque, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Siguatepeque that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Selguapa, Rio Guique, Rio Celan, Rio Calan, and Quebrada Chalantuma. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Siguatepeque as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on each of the streams studied were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at six bridges. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on any of the streams studied; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharges were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The 50-year-flood discharges estimated for Rio Selguapa, Rio Guique, Rio Celan, Rio Calan, and Quebrada Chalantuma are 323, 168, 161, 146, and 90 cubic meters per second, respectively.

Siguatepeque

Hydrogeologic and geospatial data for the assessment of focused recharge to the carbonate-rock Aquifer in Genesee County, New York

Existing hydrogeologic and geospatial data useful for the assessment of focused recharge to the carbonate-rock aquifer in the central part of Genesee County, NY, were compiled from numerous local, State, and Federal agency sources. Data sources utilized in this pilot study include available geospatial datasets from Federal and State agencies, interviews with local highway departments and the Genesee County Soil and Water Conservation District, and an initial assessment of karst features through the analysis of ortho-photographs, with minimal field verification. The compiled information is presented in a series of county-wide and quadrangle maps. The county-wide maps present generalized hydrogeologic conditions including distribution of geologic units, major faults, and karst features, and bedrock-surface and water-table configurations. Ten sets of quadrangle maps of the area that overlies the carbonate-rock aquifer present more detailed and additional information including distribution of bedrock outcrops, thin and (or) permeable soils, and karst features such as sinkholes and swallets. Water-resource managers can utilize the information summarized in this report as a guide to their assessment of focused recharge to, and the potential for surface contaminants to reach the carbonate-rock aquifer.

New York

Linkage of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Texas Water Availability Model to simulate the effects of brush management on monthly storage of Canyon Lake, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and applied an approach to create a linkage between the published upper Guadalupe River Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) brush-management (ashe juniper [ Juniperus ashei ]) model and the full authorization version Guadalupe River Water Availability Model (WAM). The SWAT model was published by the USGS, and the Guadalupe River WAM is available from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The upper Guadalupe River watershed is a substantial component of the Guadalupe River WAM. This report serves in part as documentation of a proof of concept on the feasibility of linking these two water-resources planning models for the purpose of simulating possible increases in water storage in Canyon Lake as a result of different brush-management scenarios. The SWAT-WAM linkage for the upper Guadalupe River is documented with a principal objective to evaluate the distributional characteristics of the monthly water storage of Canyon Lake during selected drought conditions. Focus is on the relative evaluation of select scenarios of large-scale or “extensive” brush management within the upper Guadalupe River watershed. There are six SWAT simulations for the upper Guadalupe River watershed that include a baseline (0-percent management of treatable ashe juniper, the baseline scenario from a previous study in which no percentage of ashe juniper is numerically replaced with grassland) along with five scenarios (extensions of SWAT simulations from a previous study) of 20-, 40-, 60-, 80-, and 100-percent random (numerical) replacement of treatable ashe juniper with grasslands throughout the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas. SWAT is a process-based, semidistributed, water-balance model designed to predict the effects of landscape management decisions on water yields. A watershed is subdivided into subbasins, and each subbasin is associated with a single reach on the stream network. In general a WAM, such as the Guadalupe River WAM, provides analysis of generalized water rights in a river and reservoir framework. A WAM accommodates hydrology and water usage through several input files containing water rights, watershed parameters, and naturalized streamflow time series. A WAM is generalized for application to rivers and reservoir systems, and input datasets are uniquely developed for a river basin of concern. The extractions of SWAT output for the five extensive brush-management and baseline scenarios were offset by –21 years and, in general, the results were then mapped to the WAM input-flow file. The offset of –21 years was chosen arbitrarily for technical reasons and means that the period of monthly record 1995–2010 of the upper Guadalupe River SWAT became the synthetic period of monthly record 1974–89, hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period, of the Guadalupe River WAM. The relative (between scenario to baseline) effects of extensive brush-management scenarios by using the SWAT-WAM linkage were evaluated, and two critical intermediate results were total inflow to Canyon Lake from 1995 to 2010 and the monthly storage of Canyon Lake from 1974 to 1989 (synthetic). The first quartile or lower 25th percentile of monthly storage of Canyon Lake for the baseline scenario is 381,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) for the hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period. This lower quartile was chosen for analysis for two critical purposes. First, Canyon Lake is managed with a conservation pool of about 386,200 acre-ft capacity (as recognized by the WAM) and is at or near conservation capacity about 50 percent or more of the time; further, there is intrinsic data censoring that occurs for the monthly storage distribution because Canyon Lake is at or near conservation pool elevation the majority of the time. This intrinsic censoring has the effect of creating a bounded distribution with a left or low-volume tail. Statistical assessment of the brush-management scenarios beginning with the 381,000 acre-ft censoring threshold provides readily interpretable results. Second, the quantification of brush management during periods lacking abundant rainfall, which were defined in this study as months for which Canyon Lake storage was below the 25th percentile for the simulation period, are of substantial interest to water-resource managers and stakeholders in the context of water-supply enhancement. A statistical assessment of the SWAT-WAM linkage for the low-volume tail of the distribution of monthly storage of Canyon Lake is the focus of analysis and interpretation. Drought periods for the analysis are defined as the months (consecutive or not) during which Canyon Lake is below the 25th percentile of storage (381,000 acre-ft) for the baseline scenario. Such months are referred to as being within the “Drought Quartile.” The Drought Quartile is a conceptual and heuristically determined waypoint for the analysis and is not related to any administrative definition of drought by stakeholders or policy makers. The five scenarios and the baseline scenario simulated in the upper Guadalupe River SWAT were all passed through the Guadalupe River WAM by the SWAT-WAM linkage described in this report. A comparison of the mean increase per month in reservoir storage for Canyon Lake conditioned for the Drought Quartile was made. For each of the five brush-management and baseline scenarios, the months with storage below 381,000 acre-ft were extracted. The mean monthly storages during the Drought Quartile were computed for each of the five scenarios and the baseline scenario. The mean of the baseline scenario was 376,458 acre-ft and subsequently was subtracted from the mean monthly storage during the Drought Quartile for each of the five scenarios. The mean monthly offset storages of Canyon Lake during the Drought Quartile were 110 acre-ft (20 percent); 448 acre-ft (40 percent); 754 acre-ft (60 percent); 1,080 acre-ft (80 percent); and 1,090 acre-ft (100 percent). A particular mean was interpreted as follows: the value of 754 acre-ft for the 60-percent brush-management scenario implies that, on average, this scenario indicates an additional 754 acre-ft per month of storage in Canyon Lake relative to the baseline during the Drought Quartile. All of the five scenarios resulted in an increase on average to water supply relative to the baseline scenario during the Drought Quartile through the SWAT-WAM linkage.

Texas

Water-level altitudes 2017 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper Aquifers and compaction 1973–2016 in the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2017 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2016 through March 2017) and long-term water-level changes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer (hereinafter referred to as “extensometer”) sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2016. In 2017, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) in two localized areas in southwestern and northwestern Harris County to 200 ft above datum in west-central Montgomery County. The largest water-level-altitude decline (120 ft) depicted by the 1977–2017 water-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer was in northwestern Harris County. A broad area where water-level altitudes declined in the Chicot aquifer extends from northwestern, north-central, and southwestern Harris County across parts of north-central, eastern, and south-central Fort Bend County into southeastern Waller County. Adjacent to the areas where water levels declined was a broad area where water levels rose in central, eastern, and southeastern Harris County, most of Galveston County, eastern and northernmost Brazoria County, and northeastern Fort Bend County. The largest rise (200 ft) in water-level altitudes in the Chicot aquifer from 1977 to 2017 was in southeastern Harris County. The water-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer in 2017 indicated two areas where the water-level altitudes were 250 ft below datum—one area extending from south-central Montgomery County into north-central Harris County and another area in western Harris County. Water-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 50 to 200 ft below datum throughout most of Harris County in 2017. In Montgomery County, water-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer in 2017 ranged from the aforementioned area where they were 250 ft below datum to an area where they were 200 ft above datum in the northwestern part of the county. The 1977–2017 water-level-change contours for the Evangeline aquifer depict a broad area where water-level altitudes declined in north-central Harris and south-central Montgomery Counties, extending through north-central, northwestern, and southwestern Harris County into western Liberty, southeastern and northeastern Waller, and northeastern and east-central Fort Bend Counties. The largest water-level-altitude decline (280 ft) was in north-central Harris and south-central Montgomery Counties. Water-level altitudes rose in a broad area from central, east-central, and southern Harris County extending into the northernmost part of Brazoria County, the northernmost part of Galveston County, and the southwestern area of Liberty County. The largest rise in water-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer from 1977 to 2017 (240 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. Water-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer in 2017 ranged from 200 ft below datum in three isolated areas of south-central Montgomery County (the westernmost of these areas extended slightly into north-central Harris County) to 250 ft above datum in extreme northwestern Montgomery County, northeastern Grimes County, and southwestern Walker County. The 2000–17 water-level-change contours for the Jasper aquifer depict water-level declines in a broad area throughout most of Montgomery County and in parts of Waller, Grimes, and Harris Counties, with the largest decline (220 ft) in an isolated area in south-central Montgomery County. Compaction of subsurface sediments (mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers) in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers was recorded continuously by using 13 extensometers at 11 sites that were either activated or installed between 1973 and 1980. During the period of record beginning in 1973 (or later depending on activation or installation date) and ending in late November or December 2016, measured cumulative compaction at the 13 extensometers ranged from 0.096 ft at the Texas City-Moses Lake extensometer to 3.700 ft at the Addicks extensometer. From January through late November or December 2016, the Addicks, Lake Houston, Southwest, and Northeast extensometers recorded net decreases in land-surface elevation, but the Baytown C–1 (shallow), Baytown C–2 (deep), Clear Lake (shallow), Clear Lake (deep), East End, Johnson Space Center, Pasadena, Seabrook, and Texas City-Moses Lake extensometers recorded net increases in land-surface elevation. The rate of compaction varies from site to site because of differences in rates of groundwater withdrawal in the areas adjacent to each extensometer site; differences among sites in the ratios of sand, silt, and clay and their corresponding compressibilities; and previously established preconsolidation heads. It is not appropriate, therefore, to extrapolate or infer a rate of compaction for an adjacent area on the basis of the rate of compaction recorded by proximal extensometers.

Texas

Annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet interpolated from historical and newly compiled observation data

The estimation of ice/snow accumulation is of great significance in quantifying the mass balance of ice sheets and variation in water resources. Improving the accuracy and reducing uncertainty has been a challenge for the estimation of annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet. In this study, we kriged and analyzed the spatial pattern of accumulation based on an observation data series including 315 points used in a recent research, plus 101 ice cores and snow pits and newly compiled 23 coastal weather station data. The estimated annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet is 31.2 g cm −2 yr −1 , with a standard error of 0.9 g cm −2 yr −1 . The main differences between the improved map developed in this study and the recently published accumulation maps are in the coastal areas, especially southeast and southwest regions. The analysis of accumulations versus elevation reveals the distribution patterns of accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet.

Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography

Digital representation of 1:1,000,000-scale hydrographic areas of the Great Basin

Hydrographic areas (HA) in Nevada were delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Nevada Division of Water Resources in the late 1960s for scientific and administrative purposes. The official HA names, numbers, and boundaries continue to be used in USGS scientific reports and Nevada State Division of Water Resources administrative activities. HAs for the Great Basin region of the United States were mapped in the late 1980’s as part of a USGS regional assessment of aquifer systems in the Great Basin. The Great Basin HAs are being published in digital format to document the data as the basic accounting unit for past and recent hydrologic investigations in the Great Basin.

Great Basin

Remote estimation of surface pCO2 on the West Florida Shelf

Surface p CO 2 data from the West Florida Shelf (WFS) have been collected during 25 cruise surveys between 2003 and 2012. The data were scaled up using remote sensing measurements of surface water properties in order to provide a more nearly synoptic map of p CO 2 spatial distributions and describe their temporal variations. This investigation involved extensive tests of various model forms through parsimony and Principal Component Analysis, which led to the development of a multi-variable empirical surface p CO 2 model based on concurrent MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) estimates of surface chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL, mg m −3 ), diffuse light attenuation at 490 nm (Kd_Lee, m −1 ), and sea surface temperature (SST, °C). Validation using an independent dataset showed a p CO 2 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of <12 µatm and a 0.88 coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for measured and model-predicted p CO 2 ranging from 300 to 550 µatm. The model was more sensitive to SST than to CHL and Kd_Lee, with a 1 °C change in SST leading to a ~16 µatm change in the predicted p CO 2 . Application of the model to the entire WFS MODIS time series between 2002 and 2014 showed clear seasonality, with maxima (~450 µatm) in summer and minima (~350 µatm) in winter. The seasonality was positively correlated to SST (high in summer and low in winter) and negatively correlated to CHL and Kd_Lee (high in winter and low in summer). Inter-annual variations of p CO 2 were consistent with inter-annual variations of SST, CHL, and Kd_Lee. These results suggest that surface water p CO 2 of the WFS can be estimated, with known uncertainties, from remote sensing. However, while the general approach of empirical regression may work for waters from other areas of the Gulf of Mexico, model coefficients need to be empirically determined in a similar fashion.

Continental Shelf Research

Quaternary science reviews Pacific Basin tsunami hazards associated with mass flows in the Aleutian arc of Alaska

We analyze mass-flow tsunami generation for selected areas within the Aleutian arc of Alaska using results from numerical simulation of hypothetical but plausible mass-flow sources such as submarine landslides and volcanic debris avalanches. The Aleutian arc consists of a chain of volcanic mountains, volcanic islands, and submarine canyons, surrounded by a low-relief continental shelf above about 1000–2000 m water depth. Parts of the arc are fragmented into a series of fault-bounded blocks, tens to hundreds of kilometers in length, and separated from one another by distinctive fault-controlled canyons that are roughly normal to the arc axis. The canyons are natural regions for the accumulation and conveyance of sediment derived from glacial and volcanic processes. The volcanic islands in the region include a number of historically active volcanoes and some possess geological evidence for large-scale sector collapse into the sea. Large scale mass-flow deposits have not been mapped on the seafloor south of the Aleutian Islands, in part because most of the area has never been examined at the resolution required to identify such features, and in part because of the complex nature of erosional and depositional processes. Extensive submarine landslide deposits and debris flows are known on the north side of the arc and are common in similar settings elsewhere and thus they likely exist on the trench slope south of the Aleutian Islands. Because the Aleutian arc is surrounded by deep, open ocean, mass flows of unconsolidated debris that originate either as submarine landslides or as volcanic debris avalanches entering the sea may be potential tsunami sources. To test this hypothesis we present a series of numerical simulations of submarine mass-flow initiated tsunamis from eight different source areas. We consider four submarine mass flows originating in submarine canyons and four flows that evolve from submarine landslides on the trench slope. The flows have lengths that range from 40 to 80 km, maximum thicknesses of 400–800 m, and maximum widths of 10–40 km. We also evaluate tsunami generation by volcanic debris avalanches associated with flank collapse, at four locations (Makushin, Cleveland, Seguam and Yunaska SW volcanoes), which represent large to moderate sized events in this region. We calculate tsunami sources using the numerical model TOPICS and simulate wave propagation across the Pacific using a spherical Boussinesq model, which is a modified version of the public domain code FUNWAVE. Our numerical simulations indicate that geologically plausible mass flows originating in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands can indeed generate large local tsunamis as well as large transoceanic tsunamis. These waves may be several meters in elevation at distal locations, such as Japan, Hawaii, and along the North and South American coastlines where they would constitute significant hazards.

Alaska

Multi-temporal mapping and analyses of post-wildfire surface soil moisture modeled from Landsat Thermal-IR and Sentinel-1 SAR

Wildfires alter surface soil moisture by consuming vegetation and exposing the soil to increased solar radiation, increased precipitation throughfall, and reduced infiltration from soil hydrophobicity. This can affect the water balance within the watershed and, in turn, influence post-fire nutrient cycling and ecosystem succession. Modeling surface soil moisture over large areas using satellite remote sensing can aid monitoring of soil moisture patterns and dynamics. We trained a random forest regression model using an in situ soil moisture network and examined pre- and post-fire soil moisture dynamics for three wildfires that burned in 2016 and 2017 in coastal California, U.S.A. Model inputs included Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Landsat thermal infrared imagery (TIR), which produced a high resolution (30 m) soil moisture map time series with 18–20 estimates across 2 years. An unbiased root mean square error of 0.065 and an r 2 of 0.624 indicates a good fit between the model and reference data. We found a significant interaction between treatment (wildfire or unburned) and period (before or after wildfire) by examining the modeled surface soil moisture in high-severity burned areas. Before-after control-impact metrics showed that modeled surface soil moisture was lower after each fire within wildfire areas compared to unburned controls, and overall changes in soil moisture were greater in the wildfire perimeters than unburned areas. These results demonstrate the potential of Sentinel-1 SAR and Landsat TIR data for the development of high-resolution soil moisture time series products to support monitoring and assessment of post-fire soil hydrologic conditions.

California