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USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗

USGS1998

Flood tracking chart for the Illinois River basin

This Flood Tracking Chart for the Illinois River Basin in Illinois can be used to record and compare the predicted or current flood-crest stage to past flood-crest information. This information can then be used by residents and emergency-response personnel to make informed decisions concerning the threat of flooding to life and property. The chart shows a map of the Illinois River Basin (see below), the location of real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the basin, graphs of selected historical recorded flood-crest stages at each of the stations, and sea-level conversion (SLC) factors that allow conversion of the current or predicted flood-crest stage to elevation above sea level. Each graph represents a streamflow-gaging station and has a space to record the most current river stage reported for that station by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts flood crests for many of the stations shown on this chart.

Illinois↗

USGS2013

Dynamics of land-use change and conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States: environmental and economic implications with linkages to rural community well-being

Rural America has changed dramatically over the last century, from having over half the population living in rural settings to only 20 percent residing in a rural area today, and outmigration of younger populations from rural communities remains a constant issue for local governing officials. A declining tax base and concurrent rising costs for maintenance and repair of aging infrastructure add further challenges to policy decisions. Reduced enrollment has caused school closures or mergers. Farm consolidation and technical advances reduced the demand for local labor. On the positive side, however, record-high commodity prices have amplified farm income to new heights. The increased revenues can lead to farmers spending additional money within the local region, while at the same time increased transportation of products has impacted local infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Such dynamics present challenges for municipal leaders charged with promoting economic development and balanced spending, while at the same time maintaining the way of life and rural character that are so important to area residents. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States covers much of the Northern Great Plains, including parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and a small part of Montana, and extends across a broad swath of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The region is defined largely by its rural character but has experienced extensive land conversion over the last century, with agricultural areas replacing native prairie habitat. Additional pressures arise from oil and gas development, global markets for agricultural production, and increased demands for biofuel feedstocks. Record-high commodity prices increase pressure on the native prairie as farmers look for new cropland acres. The volatility of commodity prices has raised fears over the intensity of land conversion to row-crop agriculture, the economic health and resiliency of rural communities, and ultimately, population dynamics and outmigration of younger generations. Land-use pressures are increased by the exponential growth of oil and gas production in the region, where some 8,200 wells are now in production within the Williston Basin of North Dakota, accompanied by increased population pressures on housing and municipal services. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)--a cropland retirement program with close to 4.8 million acres enrolled in the PPR--faces uncertainty in upcoming legislative actions, with a large majority of property enrollments scheduled to expire by 2017. The CRP historically has provided improved habitat conditions, reductions of soil damage through erosion and loss of nutrients, and sequestration of millions of tons of atmospheric carbon. In turn, wildlife-related recreation levels have increased in many parts of the PPR, with money spent in local communities. Contemporary resource-management and rural-development planning increasingly emphasize the need for diversification and integration of resource-extractive industries with nonmarket-based recreational and amenity values that tie into quality of life. Ultimately, each community is unique in its environmental, social, economic, and fiscal endowments. One rural-development policy may work better in one community than another. In addition, rural-development issues such as migration, job growth, and taxes are diverse in themselves. The goal of this report is to qualitatively and quantitatively discuss the economic impacts of land-use decisions in rural areas, particularly in the PPR.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2005

Results of land cover change detection analysis in and around Cordillera Azul National Park, Peru

The first product of the Optimizing Design and Management of Protected Areas for Conservation Project is a land cover change detection analysis based on Landsat thematic mapper (TM) and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) imagery collected at intervals between 1989 and 2002. The goal of this analysis was to quantify and analyze patterns of forest clearing, land conversion, and other disturbances in and around the Cordillera Azul National Park in Peru. After removing clouds and cloud shadows from the imagery using a series of automatic and manual processes, a Tasseled Cap Transformation was used to detect pixels of high reflectance, which were classified as bare ground and areas of likely forest clearing. Results showed a slow but steady increase in cleared ground prior to 1999 and a rapid and increasing conversion rate after that time. The highest concentrations of clearings have spread upward from the western border of the study area on the Huallaga River. To date, most disturbances have taken place in the buffer zone around the park, not within it, but the data show dense clearings occurring closer to the park border each year.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2007

Simulations of Ground-Water Flow and Residence Time near Woodbury, Connecticut

Water withdrawn for public use from glacial stratified deposits in Woodbury, Connecticut, is a mixture of water from different source areas, each having a characteristic water-quality signature. The physical processes leading to this mixture were explored using a numerical model to simulate steady-state ground-water source areas and residence times for a public water-supply well (PSW-1) in Woodbury. Upland areas contribute water to the well that is primarily from undeveloped and agricultural land. Valley bottoms contribute water to the well that is primarily from developed land. From 1985 to 2002, 6 percent of the contributing recharge area to the well changed from agricultural and undeveloped to developed land. The pattern of recharge areas and land use causes stratification of ground water by residence time and by characteristic water quality, which is related to land use. As land use changes with time, the water-quality signature of developed land moves deeper into the aquifer. Predicted nitrate concentrations decreased from 1985 to 1995 because of the conversion from agricultural land to developed land, but then began to increase after 1995 because of the conversion of undeveloped land to developed land. Total dissolved solids concentrations, on the other hand, increased from 1985 to 2002 because agriculture is associated with lower total dissolved solids concentrations than is developed land. About 40 percent of the water withdrawn from PSW-1 originated as upland recharge before flowing through glacial deposits in the valley. About 44 percent of the water originated as recharge in either fluvial deposits (mean residence time 7 years) or deltaic deposits (mean residence time 4 years). About 16 percent of the water originated as recharge through storm drains with ground-water discharge (often known as 'dry wells'). The residence time for water that originated as recharge in dry wells is 2 to 4 years, and the mean residence time is 3 years. Dry wells are a fast pathway for water to enter the aquifer and provide a significant amount of water to PSW-1; therefore, PSW-1 is more susceptible to contamination in runoff from the commercial area, which enters the dry wells, than to recharge elsewhere in the area. Water withdrawn from a well is a mixture of waters with different residence times, and a single residence time does not fully characterize the susceptibility of the well to recent contamination. The mean simulated flow-weighted residence time in PSW-1 is 6 years, which compares reasonably well with the apparent residence time measured using tritium/helium data of 6 and 7 years (samples for age dating were collected twice from this well). There are at least two modes to the distribution of ages, one mode with residence times less than 5 years and one mode with residence times greater than 5 years. About 34 percent of the ground-water in PSW-1 is younger than 5 years and 56 percent of the water is from 5 to 9 years. The estimated nitrate loading rate from a single-family septic system is 18 grams per day. If each household in the contributing recharge area contributes nitrate at that loading rate to the well PSW-1, each additional septic system in the contributing recharge area is responsible for a 0.045-milligram-per-liter increase in nitrate at PSW-1 at the current pumping rate. Uncertainty in the predicted contributing recharge area can be propagated through the analysis using a Monte Carlo technique. There is a greater degree of certainty in the delineation of the recharge area near the well, and as one moves from the well toward the recharge areas, the uncertainty in the model increases. The area that possibly contributes water to the well using the Monte Carlo model is much larger than the recharge area delineated using the optimal parameter estimates. Within the probabilistic recharge area, the number of septic systems could be twice the number initially estimated.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Availability, sustainability, and suitability of ground water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado: Types of analyses and data for use in subdivision water-supply reports

The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers Mesa consists of alluvial-fan deposits that overlie shale and, locally, sandstone. Maps of the base of the aquifer, the water table, and the saturated thickness of the aquifer were prepared from data from the well files of the Colorado Division of Water Resources. The base of the aquifer generally is topographically higher than the valleys of the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek, and direct hydraulic connection of the aquifer to North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek is limited. The aquifer is recharged primarily by infiltration of surface water diverted for irrigation. Ground water discharges to seeps and springs and through slope deposits at the boundaries of the aquifer. Data from the well files also were used to estimate the specific capacity of wells and to estimate the transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. A water budget was used to estimate recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Although storage within the aquifer likely varies seasonally and from year to year, it was assumed that there were no long-term changes in ground-water storage. Estimated average annual recharge to and discharge from the aquifer during November 1998 through October 2006 were about 30,767 acre-feet per year. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although the dissolved solids and dissolved sulfate concentrations in ground water from Rogers Mesa aquifer commonly exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels for drinking-water supplies, the quality of ground water from the aquifer generally is suitable for residential use. Concentrations of total nitrogen (nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen) in ground water ranged from 0.38 to 3.2 milligrams per liter and were less than the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of selenium from seeps and springs at the boundaries of the aquifer commonly exceeded 50 micrograms per liter, the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level for drinking-water supplies. This preliminary evaluation of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa could be improved with the collection of additional data including: additional mapping of hydrogeologic features; more accurate locations and altitudes of wells; accurate estimates of water-budget components; measurements of ground-water levels; and collection and analyses of ground-water samples. The use of numerical models of ground-water flow could improve evaluations of the potential effects of changes in land and water use on the water budget, aquifer storage, stream depletion, and well interference.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land-use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were lower than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a concentrations decreased during the same summer season. The decrease in nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations during the dry summer in 2006 was enough to decrease concentrations of these constituents very slightly, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 3, the changes in simulated nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in very slight changes in simulated water quality within Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition, for most of the reservoir. Among the implications of the results of the modeling described in this report are those related to scale in both space and time. Spatial scales include limited size and location of land-use changes, their effects on loading rates, and resultant effects on water quality of Lake Maumelle. Temporally, the magnitude of the water-quality changes simulated by the land-use change scenarios over the 7-year period (2004–10) are not necessarily indicative of the changes that could be expected to occur with similar land-use changes persisting over a 20-, 30-, or 40- year period, for example. These implications should be tempered by realization of the described model limitations. The Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to streamflow and water-quality data from five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. The CE–QUAL–W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data collected during January 2004 through December 2010 at three reservoir stations, representing the upper, middle, and lower sections of the reservoir. In general, the baseline simulation for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN and the CE–QUAL–W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. Simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Maumelle River at Williams Junction, the station representing the upper end of the watershed (with differences—simulated minus measured value—generally ranging from -15 to 41 milligrams per liter, and percent difference—relative to the measured value—ranging from -99 to 182 percent) and Maumelle River near Wye, the station just above the reservoir at the lower end (differences generally ranging from -20 to 22 milligrams per liter, and percent difference ranging from -100 to 194 percent). In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest temperatures or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For the CE–QUAL–W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of water temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured vertical distributions over time, even for the most complex water-temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations compared well with generally low measured concentrations.

Arkansas↗

USGS2017

Estimated dissolved-solids loads and trends at selected streams in and near the Uinta Basin, Utah, Water Years 1989–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, studied trends in dissolved-solids loads at selected sites in and near the Uinta Basin, Utah. The Uinta Basin study area includes the Duchesne River Basin and the Middle Green River Basin in Utah from below Flaming Gorge Reservoir to the town of Green River. Annual dissolved-solids loads for water years (WY) 1989 through 2013 were estimated for 16 gaging stations in the study area using streamflow and water-quality data from the USGS National Water Information System database. Eight gaging stations that monitored catchments with limited or no agricultural land use (natural subbasins) were used to assess loads from natural sources. Four gaging stations that monitored catchments with agricultural land in the Duchesne River Basin were used to assess loads from agricultural sources. Four other gaging stations were included in the dissolved-solids load and trend analysis to help assess the effects of agricultural areas that drain to the Green River in the Uinta Basin, but outside of the Duchesne River Basin. Estimated mean annual dissolved-solids loads for WY 1989–2013 ranged from 1,520 tons at Lake Fork River above Moon Lake, near Mountain Home, Utah (UT), to 1,760,000 tons at Green River near Green River, UT. The flow-normalized loads at gaging stations upstream of agricultural activities showed no trend or a relatively small change. The largest net change in modeled flow-normalized load was -352,000 tons (a 17.8-percent decrease) at Green River near Green River, UT. Annual streamflow and modeled dissolved-solids loads at the gaging stations were balanced between upstream and downstream sites to determine how much water and dissolved solids were transported to the Duchesne River and a section of the Green River, and how much was picked up in each drainage area. Mass-balance calculations of WY 1989–2013 mean annual dissolved-solids loads at the studied sites show that Green River near Jensen, UT, accounts for 64 percent of the load in the river at Green River, UT, while the Duchesne River and White River contribute 10 and 13 percent, respectively. Annual streamflow and modeled dissolved-solids loads at the gaging stations were balanced between upstream and downstream sites to determine how much water and dissolved solids were transported to the Duchesne River and a section of the Green River, and how much was picked up in each drainage area. Mass-balance calculations of WY 1989–2013 mean annual dissolved-solids loads at the studied sites show that Green River near Jensen, UT, accounts for 64 percent of the load in the river at Green River, UT, while the Duchesne River and White River contribute 10 and 13 percent, respectively. The flow-normalized dissolved-solids loads estimated at Duchesne River near Randlett, UT, and White River near Watson, UT, decreased by 68,000 and 55,300 tons, or 27.8 and 20.8 percent respectively, when comparing 1989 to 2013. The drainage basins for both rivers have undergone salinity-control projects since the early 1980s to reduce the dissolved-solids load entering the Colorado River. Approximately 19 percent of the net change in flow-normalized load at Green River at Green River, UT, is from changes in load modeled at Duchesne River near Randlett, UT, and 16 percent from changes in load modeled at White River near Watson, UT. The net change in flow-normalized load estimated at Green River near Greendale, UT, for WY 1989–2013 accounts for about 45 percent of the net change estimated at Green River at Green River, UT. Mass-balance calculations of WY 1989–2013 mean annual dissolved-solids loads at the studied sites in the Duchesne River Basin show that 75,400 tons or 44 percent of the load at the Duchesne River near Randlett, UT, gaging station was not accounted for at any of the upstream gages. Most of this unmonitored load is derived from tributary inflow, groundwater discharge, unconsumed irrigation water, and irrigation tail water. A mass balance of WY 1989–2013 flow-normalized loads estimated at sites in the Duchesne River Basin indicates that the flow-normalized load of unmonitored inflow to the Duchesne River between the Myton and Randlett gaging stations decreased by 38 percent. The total net decrease in flow-normalized load calculated for unmonitored inflow in the drainage basin accounts for 94 percent of the decrease in WY 1989–2013 flow-normalized load modeled at the Duchesne River near Randlett, UT, gaging station. Irrigation improvements in the drainage basin have likely contributed to the decrease in flow-normalized load. Reductions in dissolved-solids load estimated by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) from on- and off-farm improvements in the Uinta Basin totaled about 135,000 tons in 2013 (81,900 tons from on-farm improvements and 53,300 tons from off-farm improvements). The reduction in dissolved-solids load resulting from on- and off-farm improvements facilitated by the NRCS and Reclamation in the Price River Basin from 1989 to 2013 was estimated to be 64,800 tons. The amount of sprinkler-irrigated land mapped in the drainage area or subbasin area for a gaging station was used to estimate the reduction in load resulting from the conversion from flood to sprinkler irrigation. Sprinkler-irrigated land mapped in the Uinta Basin totaled 109,630 acres in 2012. Assuming conversion to wheel-line sprinklers, a reduction in dissolved-solids load in the Uinta Basin of 95,800 tons in 2012 was calculated using the sprinkler-irrigation acreage and a pre-salinity-control project dissolved-solids yield of 1.04 tons per acre. A reduction of 72,800 tons in dissolved-solids load from irrigation improvements was determined from sprinkler-irrigated lands in the Ashley Valley and Jensen, Pelican Lake, and Pleasant Valley areas (mapped in 2012); and in the Price River Basin (mapped in 2011). This decrease in dissolved-solids load is 8,800 tons more than the decrease in unmonitored flow-normalized dissolved-solids load (-64,000 tons) determined for the Green River between the Jensen and Green River gaging stations. The net WY 1989–2013 change in flow-normalized dissolved-solids load at the Duchesne River near Randlett, UT, and the Green River between the Jensen and Green River, UT, gaging stations determined from mass-balance calculations was compared to reported reductions in dissolved-solids load from on- and off-farm improvements and estimated reductions in load determined from mapped sprinkler-irrigated areas in the Duchesne River Basin and the area draining to the Green River between the Jensen and Green River gaging stations. The combined NRCS and Reclamation estimates of reduction in dissolved-solids load from on- and off-farm improvements in the study area (200,000 tons) is more than the reduction in load estimated using the acreage with sprinkler improvements (136,000 tons) or the mass-balance of flow-normalized load (132,000 tons).

Utah↗

USGS2018

Hydraulic, water-quality, and temperature performance of three types of permeable pavement under high sediment loading conditions

Three permeable pavement surfaces - asphalt (PA), concrete (PC), and interlocking pavers (PIP) - were evaluated side-by-side to measure changes to the infiltrative capacity and water quality of stormwater runoff originating from a conventional asphalt parking lot in Madison, Wisconsin. During the 24-month monitoring period (2014-16), all three permeable pavements resulted in statistically significant reductions in the cumulative load of solids (total suspended solids and suspended sediment), total phosphorus, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ), and Enterococci . Most of the removal occurred through capture and retention in the void spaces of each permeable surface and aggregate base. The largest reduction in total suspended solids was for PC at 80 percent, followed by PIP and PA at 69 and 65 percent, respectively. Reductions (generally less than 50 percent) in total phosphorus also were observed, which might have been tempered by increases in the dissolved fraction observed in PIP and PA. Conversely, PC results indicated a slight reduction in dissolved phosphorus but failed to meet statistical significance. E. coli and Enterococci were reduced by about 80 percent for PC, almost twice the amount observed for PIP and PA. Results for the PIP and PC surfaces initially indicated higher pollutant load reduction than results for the PA surface. The efficiency of PIP and PC surfaces capturing sediment, however, led to a decline in infiltration rates that resulted in more runoff flowing over, not through, the permeable surface. This result led to a decline in treatment until the permeable surface was partially restored through maintenance practices, to which PIP responded more dramatically than PC or PA. Conversely, the PA surface was capable of infiltrating most of the influent runoff volume during the monitoring period and, thus, continued to provide some level of treatment. The combined effect of underdrain and overflow drainage resulted in similar pollutant treatment for all three permeable surfaces. Temperatures below each permeable surface generally followed changes in air temperature with a more gradual response observed in deeper layers. Therefore, permeable pavement may do little to mitigate heated runoff during summer. During winter, deeper layers remained above freezing even when air temperature was below freezing. Although temperatures were not high enough to melt snow or ice accumulated on the surface, temperatures below each permeable pavement did allow void spaces to remain open, which promoted infiltration of melted ice and snow as air temperatures rose above freezing. These open void spaces could potentially reduce the need for application of deicing agents in winter because melted snow and ice would infiltrate, thereby preventing refreezing of pooled water in what is known as the “black ice” effect.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Comparison of turbidity sensors at U.S. Geological Survey supergages in Indiana from November 2018 to December 2021

Beginning in September 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey installed continuous water-quality monitors at several streamgages across Indiana as part of a network of supergages to meet cooperator information needs. Two types (or models) of water-quality monitors deployed at each site measured and recorded water temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, and turbidity every 15 minutes during the study period. Associated discrete water samples were collected at regular intervals and analyzed for concentrations of suspended sediment and total phosphorus. Surrogate regression models were developed between the continuously measured turbidity values and turbidity values in the associated samples to compute continuous concentrations and loads of suspended sediment and total phosphorus. Starting in November 2018, the original extended deployment system monitors were replaced with the newest model of multiparameter water-quality monitors and were equipped with turbidity smart sensors because the older monitors were phased out of production. The updated monitor and smart sensor yield different but relatable turbidity values. Turbidity data collected concurrently by the two sensors from November 2018 to December 2021 were compared and analyzed to quantify the relation between them at six supergage sites in northwestern Indiana and one site in the town of Zionsville in central Indiana. Ordinary least squares regression was used to calculate site-specific conversion factors so that turbidity data from the newer monitors can be used in published surrogate models based on the older monitor data. Regression analyses explained approximately 98 percent of the variation in turbidity readings between the two sensors. From these analyses, conversion factors were developed that may be applied to older turbidity readings to calculate near real-time concentrations of phosphorus and suspended sediment.

Indiana↗

USGS2024

Effects of drought and cloud-water interception on groundwater recharge and wildfire hazard for recent and future climate conditions, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi

The Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model (WATRMod) code was used for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for a set of water-budget scenarios. The scenarios included historical and future drought conditions, and a land-cover condition where shrubland and forest within the cloud zone were converted to grassland. For the historical drought condition, island-wide mean annual recharge estimates range from a decrease of 30 percent (239 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) for Kauaʻi to a decrease of 39 percent (2,706 Mgal/d) for the Island of Hawaiʻi, relative to the reference condition consisting of 1978–2007 rainfall and 2020 land cover. For the future drought condition, estimates of island-wide mean annual recharge range from a decrease of 40 percent (477 Mgal/d) on Maui to a decrease of 51 percent (116 Mgal/day) on Molokaʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition produces estimated land-cover-related decreases in island-wide mean annual recharge (in addition to the drought-related decreases) of 11–12 Mgal/d on Oʻahu, 119–135 Mgal/day on Maui, and 689–849 Mgal/d on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The spatial distributions of increases in conditions indicative of moisture stress and potential wildfire hazard were quantified using the relative frequency of soil moisture less than a selected threshold value (monthly mean soil moisture less than 0.074, expressed as a fraction of available water capacity), evapotranspiration less than a selected threshold value (monthly evapotranspiration less than 0.96 inches), and climatic water deficit greater than a selected threshold value (monthly climatic water deficit greater than 0.77, expressed as fraction of potential evapotranspiration). For the historical drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency for the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of east and southwest Kauaʻi; central, east, and west Oʻahu; central Molokaʻi; central Maui and low- to mid-altitude parts of West Maui volcano; and the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. For the future drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency of the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of west Kauaʻi; central and west Oʻahu and Molokaʻi; a band of mid-altitude area on the southern slope of West Maui volcano and across the southwestern slope of Haleakalā; and mid-altitude areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition results in land-cover-related increases in the relative frequency of moisture-stress indicators around Kaʻala in the Waiʻanae Range and the southeastern part of the Koʻolau Range on Oʻahu, the southern part of West Maui volcano and the southwestern slope of Haleakalā on Maui, and the upland regions of the western and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Evaluating drought risk of the Red River of the North Basin using historical and stochastic streamflow upstream from Emerson, Manitoba

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions. Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model. A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period. To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed. The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent. The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Manitoba, Minnesota, North Dakota↗

USGS2007

Determination of the δ 15 N and δ 18 O of nitrate in water; RSIL lab code 2900

The purpose of the Reston Stable Isotope Laboratory (RSIL) lab code 2900 is to determine the δ 15 N and δ 18 O of nitrate (NO 3 - ) in water. The δ 15 N and δ 18 O of the dissolved NO 3 - are analyzed by converting the NO 3 - to nitrous oxide (N 2 O), which serves as the analyte for mass spectrometry. A culture of denitrifying bacteria is used in the enzymatic conversion of the NO 3 - to N 2 O, which follows the pathway shown in equation 1: NO 3 - → NO 2 - → NO → 1/2 N 2 O (1) Because the bacteria Pseudomonas aureofaciens lack N 2 O reductive activity, the reaction stops at N 2 O, unlike the typical denitrification reaction that goes to N 2 . After several hours, the conversion is complete, and the N 2 O is extracted from the vial, separated from volatile organic vapor and water vapor by an automated -65 °C isopropanol-slush trap, a Nafion drier, a CO 2 and water removal unit (Costech #021020 carbon dioxide absorbent with Mg(ClO 4 ) 2 ), and trapped in a small-volume trap immersed in liquid nitrogen with a modified Finnigan MAT (now Thermo Scientific) GasBench 2 introduction system. After the N 2 O is released, it is further purified by gas chromatography before introduction to the isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (IRMS). The IRMS is a Thermo Scientific Delta V Plus continuous flow IRMS (CF-IRMS). It has a universal triple collector, consisting of two wide cups with a narrow cup in the middle; it is capable of simultaneously measuring mass/charge ( m/z ) of the N 2 O molecule 44, 45, and 46. The ion beams from these m/z values are as follows: m/z = 44 = N 2 O = 14 N 14 N 16 O; m/z = 45 = N 2 O = 14 N 15 N 16 O or 14 N 14 N 17 O; m/z = 46 = N 2 O = 14 N 14 N 18 O. The 17 O contributions to the m/z 44 and m/z 45 ion beams are accounted for before δ 15 N values are reported.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS1999

Comparison of two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage in the lower Arkansas River Basin, Colorado, 1997-98

In March 1994, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted “Rules Governing the Measurement of Tributary Ground Water Diversions Located in the Arkansas River Basin” (Office of the State Engineer, 1994); these initial rules were amended in February 1996 (Office of the State Engineer, 1996). The amended rules require users of wells that divert tributary ground water to annually report the water pumped monthly by each well. The rules allow a well owner to report the pumpage measured by a totalizing flowmeter (TFM) or pumpage determined from electrical power data and a power conversion coefficient (PCC) (Hurr and Litke, 1989). Opinions by representatives of the State of Kansas, presented before the Special Master hearing a court case [State of Kansas v. State of Colorado, No. 105 Original (1996)] concerning post-Compact well pumping, stated that the PCC approach does not provide the same level of accuracy and reliability as a TFM when used to determine pumpage. In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the CDWR, began a 2-year study to compare ground-water pumpage estimates made using the TFM and the PCC approaches. The study area was along the Arkansas River between Pueblo, Colorado, and the Colorado-Kansas State line (fig. 1). The two approaches for estimating ground-water discharge and pumpage were compared for more than 100 wells completed in the alluvial aquifer of the Arkansas River Basin. The TFM approach uses an inline flowmeter to directly measure instantaneous discharge and the total volume of water pumped at a well. The PCC approach uses electrical power consumption records and a power conversion coefficient to estimate the pumpage at ground-water wells. This executive summary describes the results of the comparison of the two approaches. Specifically, (1) the differences in instantaneous discharge measured with three portable flowmeters and measured with an inline TFM are evaluated, and the statistical differences in paired instantaneous discharge between the two approaches are determined; (2) short- and long-term variations in the PCC’s are presented; (3) differences in pumpage between the two approaches are evaluated, and the statistical differences in pumpage between the two approaches are determined; (4) potential sources of discrepancy between pumpage estimates are discussed; and (5) differences in total network pumpage using the two approaches are presented. During the irrigation seasons of 1997 and 1998, instantaneous discharge and electrical power demand were measured at randomly selected wells to determine PCC’s. At more than 100 wells, the PCC’s determined during the 1998 season were applied to total electrical power consumption data that was recorded between the initial and final readings at each network well site in 1998 to estimate total ground-water pumpage. At each site, an inline TFM was installed in a full-flowing, acceptable test section of pipe on the discharge side of the pump where the measurement of discharge was made. Measurements of instantaneous ground-water discharge also were made using three different types of portable flowmeters. The average velocity multiplied by the cross-sectional area of the discharge pipe was used to compute the discharge in gallons per minute. Whenever possible, discharge measurements were made at each network site using all three types of portable flowmeters.

Colorado↗

USGS1960

Geology and ground-water resources of Platte County, Wyoming, with a section on Chemical quality of the water

Platte County, Wyo., has an area of 2,114 square miles and, in 1950, had a population of 7,925; it lies within parts of two major physiographic provinces, the northern extension of the Southern Rocky Mountains and the northwestern part of the Great Plains. The Laramie Range and related structures lie along the western margin of the county and constitute the eastern limit of the Rocky Mountain Front Range. The High Plains section of the Great Plains province extends eastward from the Laramie Range over the remainder of the county. The original surface of the High Plains has been deeply eroded, and in the northeastern part of the county it is broken by the broad uplifted structural platform of the Hartville Hills. The North Platte River and its tributaries have entrenched their channels as much as 1,000 feet into the plains, leaving wide, very flat intervalley areas that are interrupted by a few isolated buttes and outlying ridges. Well-defined terraces, locally called the Wheatland Flats, have been formed in central Platte County. The climate is semiarid, the average annual precipitation being about 15 inches. Farming and stockraising are the principal occupations in the county. Most of the rocks exposed in the county are of Tertiary and Quaternary age, although rocks as old as Precambrian crop out locally. The Arikaree and Brule formations and younger deposits, including Tertiary ( ?) deposits (undifferentiated) and terrace, flood-plain, and other alluvial deposits, underlie more than two-thirds of the county. Mesozoic, Paleozoic, and Precambrian rocks crop out in the other third and underlie the younger rocks at great depths elsewhere. Small supplies of ground water adequate for domestic and stock use can be obtained from shallow wells in the Casper, Hartville, Cloverly, Brule, and Arikaree formations and in the terrace and flood-plain deposits. Small to moderate amounts of ground water can be obtained from the 'Converse sand' of the Hartville formation. Several flowing wells obtain water from this sand near Glendo. Moderate to large supplies of ground water adequate for small-scale irrigation or industrial uses or for public supply can be obtained from properly constructed wells penetrating thick saturated sections of the Arikaree formation and from the terrace and flood-plain deposits. Large supplies of ground water can be obtained from the flood-plain deposits of the North Platte River near Guernsey, where wells commonly yield more than 1,000 gpm (gallons per minute). The aquifers with greatest potential for additional groundwater development in Platte County, in decreasing order of importance, are the flood-plain deposits along the North Platte River and its tributaries, the Arikaree formation and terrace deposits in parts of the Wheatland Flats, and the 'Converse sand' in the general vicinity of Glendo.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS1965

Ground-water pumpage and water-level changes in the Milwaukee-Waukesha area, Wisconsin, 1950-61

Artesian water pressure in the deep sandstone aquifer continued to decline throughout most of the Milwaukee-Waukesha area, Wisconsin between 1950 and 1961. Areas of greatest water-level decline were in northeast Waukesha County and in northwest Milwaukee County. The chief cause of the decline was continued heavy pumpage. The major aquifers of southeastern Wisconsin are the Niagara aquifer, which is primarily Niagara Dolomite of Silurian age, and the sandstone aquifer, which consists of sandstones of Cambrian and Ordovician ages. Locally, the glacial sands and gravels ,of Pleistocene age also are important aquifers. In the Milwaukee-Waukesha area, the sandstone aquifer is completely artesian, confined above by the Maquoketa Shale. The Niagara aquifer is generally unconfined. Pumpage from the sandstone aquifer in the Milwaukee-Waukesha area de- creased from about 23.3 million gallons per day in 1950 to about 20.9 million gallons per day in 1961. The principal reason for decreased pumpage was sub- stitution of surface-water supply from Lake Michigan. Between 1950 and 1961, the water-level changes in wells in the sandstone aquifer ranged from plus 10 feet at Town of Lake to minus 98 feet in northwest Milwaukee. Except for a small area near Town of Lake, water levels in wells in the Milwaukee-Waukesha area were lower in 1961 than in 1950. Water-level changes were directly related to the pumpage pattern and pump- age changes. Increased pumpage at Waukesha and in northwest Milwaukee and continued heavy pumpage at Wauwatosa caused widespread water-level declines in northeast Waukesha County and in northwest Milwaukee County. Locally, decreased pumpage at West Milwaukee allowed limited recovery of water levels since 1957. Estimates of pumpage through the year 1975 indicate a pumpage decrease in the middle 1960's, followed by an increase in the late 1960's and early 1970's. Additional conversion to surface-water supply in Milwaukee County will account for most pumpage decreases. Increased pumpage is most likely in Waukesha County where the population is expanding rapidly and an adequate surface-water supply is not readily accessible. The westward shift of the pumpage pattern may cause an additional water-level decline of about 50 feet at Waukesha but will permit water levels to recover about 100 feet at West Allis by 1975. Partial or complete conversion to surface-water supplies by municipalities that depend entirely on water from the sandstone aquifer would allow greater use of the sandstone aquifer by isolated suburban developments and industries.

Wisconsin↗