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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

USGS1997

Tests of subsurface storage of freshwater at Hialeah, Dade County, Florida, and numerical simulation of the salinity of recovered water

Injection and observation wells were drilled in late 1974 for the purpose of conducting tests of storage and recovery of potable water in the brackish Upper Floridan aquifer. Three tests, involving storage and recovery cycles of varying volumes and storage period lengths, were performed between July 1975 and January 1980. Recovery was by natural artesian flow, and recovery efficiencies were 32.9, 47.8, and 38.5 percent. Wellbore plugging occurred during the injection stages, but injectivity was restored by periodic 2- to 3-hour backflushes at the natural artesian flow rate. An interval of shelly limestone between 1,015 and 1,050 feet below land surface contained the flow zone. Data from an analysis of 18 spinner flowmeter logs indicated that the principal part of the flow zone extended from 1,024 to 1,036 feet below land surface and that minor amounts of flow occurred to a depth of about 1,047 feet. A neutron porosity log indicated the bulk porosity of both the flow zone and confining layers to be 35 percent. Chloride and dissolved-solids concentrations of water in the flow zone were 1,200 and 2,700 milligrams per liter, respectively. A three-dimensional, finite-difference flow and solute-transport code was used to simulate pressure data measured during an aquifer test and observed salinity increases in recovered water during storage and recovery cycles. The aquifer test conducted in February 1975 was simulated by using a hydraulic conductivity estimate of 800 feet per day and a rock compressibility estimate of 0.0000400 (pound per square inch)-1. The equivalent transmissivity and storage coefficients were 9,600 cubic feet per day per square foot times foot of aquifer thickness and 7.8×10-5, respectively. Simulation of observed salinity increases during the three recoveries required dispersivities of 65 feet, a molecular diffusivity of 0.0002 foot squared per day, and a regional pore velocity of 260 feet per year. Central differencing in space and time was used for the solute-transport computations as well as an experimental method of computing vertical dispersion that used a scaling factor of 0.013. Additional simulations of the aquifer-test data and recovery salinities were obtained based on assumptions that (1) the flow zone was 21 feet thick, (2) flow-zone effective porosity was 20 percent, and (3) flow-zone hydraulic conductivity was bipolar anisotropic by a ratio of 10:1. The four sets of simulation values were used in model runs in which 10 years of annual injection, storage, and recovery cycles were simulated. Computed recovery efficiencies increased from 40 percent in the first year to 68 percent in later cycles. The high regional pore velocity required for model calibration substantially limited the recovery efficiency achieved in later cycles.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Analytical validation of two RT-qPCR tests and detection of spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) in persistently infected koi Cyprinus carpio

Spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) ia a carp sprivivirus and a member of the genus Sprivivirus within the family Rhabdoviridae . The virus is the etiological agent of spring viremia of carp, a disease of cyprinid species including koi Cyprinus carpio L. and notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health. The goal of this study was to explore hypotheses regarding inter-genogroup (Ia to Id) SVCV infection dynamics in juvenile koi and contemporaneously create new reverse-transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assays and validate their analytical sensitivity, specificity (ASp) and repeatability for diagnostic detection of SVCV. RT-qPCR diagnostic tests targeting the SVCV nucleoprotein (Q2N) or glycoprotein (Q1G) nucleotides were pan-specific for isolates typed to SVCV genogroups Ia to Id. The Q2N test had broader ASp than Q1G because Q1G did not detect SVCV isolate 20120450 and Q2N displayed occasional detection of pike fry sprivivirus isolate V76. Neither test cross-reacted with other rhabdoviruses, infectious pancreatic necrosis virus or co-localizing cyprinid herpesvirus 3. Both tests were sensitive with observed 50% limits of detection of 3 plasmid copies and high repeatability. Test analysis of koi immersed in SVCV showed that the virus could be detected for at least 167 d following exposure and that titer, prevalence, replicative rate and persistence in koi were correlated significantly with virus virulence. In this context, high virulence SVCV isolates were more prevalent, reached higher titers quicker and persisted in koi for longer periods of time relative to moderate and low virulence isolates.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms↗

USGS2022

Rapid diagnostic test to detect and discriminate infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) genogroups U and M to aid management of Pacific Northwest salmonid populations

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is an acute pathogen of salmonids in North America, Europe, and Asia that is phylogenetically classified into five major virus genogroups (U, M, L, E, and J). The geographic range of the U and M genogroup isolates overlap in the North American Columbia River Basin and Washington Coast region, where these genogroups pose different risks depending on the species of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.). For certain management decisions, there is a need to both test for IHNV presence and rapidly determine the genogroup. Herein, we report the development and validation of a U/M multiplex reverse transcription, real-time PCR (RT-rPCR) assay targeting the IHNV nucleocapsid (N) protein gene. The new U/M RT-rPCR is a rapid, sensitive, and repeatable assay capable of specifically discriminating between North American U and M genogroup IHNV isolates. However, one M genogroup isolate obtained from commercially cultured Idaho rainbow trout ( O. mykiss ) showed reduced sensitivity with the RT-rPCR test, suggesting caution may be warranted before applying RT-rPCR as the sole surveillance test in areas associated with the Idaho trout industry. The new U/M assay had high diagnostic sensitivity (DSe > 94%) and specificity (DSp > 97%) in free-ranging adult Pacific salmon, when assessed relative to cell culture, the widely accepted reference standard, as well as the previously validated universal N RT-rPCR test. The high diagnostic performance of the new U/M assay indicates the test is suitable for surveillance, diagnosis, and confirmation of IHNV in Pacific salmon from the Pacific Northwest regions where the U and M genogroups overlap.

Animals↗

USGS2017

Bat white-nose syndrome: a real-time TaqMan polymerase chain reaction test targeting the intergenic spacer region of Geomyces destructans tructans.

The fungus Geomyces destructans is the causative agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), a disease that has killed millions of North American hibernating bats. We describe a real-time TaqMan PCR test that detects DNA from G. destructans by targeting a portion of the multicopy intergenic spacer region of the rRNA gene complex. The test is highly sensitive, consistently detecting as little as 3.3 fg of genomic DNA from G. destructans . The real-time PCR test specifically amplified genomic DNA from G. destructans but did not amplify target sequence from 54 closely related fungal isolates (including 43 Geomyces spp. isolates) associated with bats. The test was further qualified by analyzing DNA extracted from 91 bat wing skin samples, and PCR results matched histopathology findings. These data indicate the real-time TaqMan PCR method described herein is a sensitive, specific, and rapid test to detect DNA from G. destructans and provides a valuable tool for WNS diagnostics and research.

Mycologia↗

USGS1985

TESTS OF LOW-FREQUENCY GEOMETRIC DISTORTIONS IN LANDSAT 4 IMAGES.

Tests were performed to investigate the geometric characteristics of Landsat 4 images. The first set of tests was designed to determine the extent of image distortion caused by the physical process of writing the Landsat 4 images on film. The second was designed to characterize the geometric accuracies inherent in the digital images themselves. Test materials consisted of film images of test targets generated by the Laser Beam Recorders at Sioux Falls, the Optronics* Photowrite film writer at Goddard Space Flight Center, and digital image files of a strip 600 lines deep across the full width of band 5 of the Washington, D. C. Thematic Mapper scene. The tests were made by least-squares adjustment of an array of measured image points to a corresponding array of control points.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Risk-informed levee erosion countermeasure site selection and design in the Sacramento area part 1: Soil sampling, testing, and data processing

USACE partnered with the United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, United States Geological Survey, and Texas A&M University to evaluate the erodibility of the river banks and levees to inform probabilistic numerical simulations using the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM). This paper discusses the measurement of the intrinsic erosion and geotechnical properties of the soil for improved BSTEM results and is the first of two parts. Sampling and testing were conducted at select sites to obtain the soil stratigraphy and collect samples for estimation of engineering properties. Soil erodibility was measured using the Erosion Function Apparatus test, the Borehole Erosion Test, the Pocket Erodometer Test, and the mini-Jet Erosion Test. Critical evaluation of previously existing datasets and the collection of these new datasets helped to provide better definition of the range in erosion parameters for improved probabilistic erosion estimates using BSTEM for risk-informed levee erosion countermeasure site selection and design.

California↗

USGS1982

Biostratigraphy and paleoecology of lower Paleozoic, upper Cretaceous, and lower Tertiary rocks in U.S. Geological Survey New Madrid test wells, Southeastern Missouri

The paleontology and biostratigraphy of Tertiary, Cretaceous, and Paleozoic rocks in the upper Mississippi embayment are incompletely known because marine fossils are only locally present in these rocks. This study concerns material from two U.S. Geological Survey test wells drilled in New Madrid County, southeastern Missouri, as part of earthquake hazard studies in the northern Mississippi Embayment. Test well1 sampled lower Tertiary strata to a depth of 146ft; these strata were found to be late Eocene in age on the basis of sporomorphs. Test well1-X, 29ft northwest of well1, provided cuttings and cores from lower Tertiary, Upper Cretaceous, and lower Paleozoic rocks to a total depth of 2,316 ft below the Kelly bushing (at an altitude of 288 ft). Lithologic evidence suggests that the base of the Jackson Formation may be at 270 ft, but sporomorphs indicate that the base of the Jacksonian Stage (upper Eocene) is possibly at a depth of about 350ft in test well1-X. Lithologic units of the Claibornian Stage (middle Eocene) here consist of the Cockfield(?) and Cook Mountain(?) Formations and Memphis Sand, in descending order. The Claibornian could not be subdivided using sporomorphs from cuttings, but sporomorphs show that the top of the Sabinian Stage (top of the lower Eocene) is at about 1,055 ft; lithologically, the top of the Wilcox Group (top of the Flour Island Formation) is at 1,048 ft. Sporomorphs suggest that the top of the lower Sabinian (top of the Paleocene) is within the Flour Island Formation at about 1,105 ft. The next major lithologic break, the top of the Fort Pillow Sand at 1,186 ft, does not coincide with any detectable biostratigraphic boundary. Lithologically, the interval from 1,339 to 1,377 ft may belong to the Old Breastworks Formation; dinoflagellates from cuttings indicate that this interval is likely to be late Midwayan in age and, therefore, correlative with the Naheola Formation of the eastern Gulf Coast. The Porters Creek Clay extends from a probable top at 1,377 ft to 1,691 ft, and the base of the underlying Clayton Formation (Tertiary-Cretaceous contact) is at 1, 703 ft. Calcareous nannofossils, dinoflagellates, foraminifers, mollusks, ostracodes, and sporomorphs from continuous cores of the Porters Creek Clay and Clayton Formation indicate that the upper half of the Porters Creek correlates with the upper part of the same formation or perhaps partly with slightly younger rocks in the eastern Gulf Coast, the lowermost Porters Creek appears to correlate with the upper part of the Clayton Formation of the eastern Gulf Coast and with the Kincaid Formation of Texas, and the thin Clayton of the test well probably correlates with only the lower part of the thicker Clayton of the eastern Gulf Coast. Sporomorphs from McNairy Sand (Upper Cretaceous) cores indicate Maestrichtian and perhaps latest Campanian Age. Lower Paleozoic dolostone from 2,023 ft to total depth at 2,316 ft is barren of identifiable fossils except for a probable fragment of the fish Anatolepis; the dolostone is probably Late Cambrian in age. The McNairy Sand of New Madrid well 1-X seems to have been deposited in nonmarine to nearshore marine environments; the Clayton Formation and lower part of the Porters Creek Clay were deposited under marine conditions during an early Paleocene marine transgression. A major regression followed that continued through the end of Porters Creek time and perhaps into Naheola (late Midwayan) time; the Sabinian, Claibornian, and Jacksonian strata in southeastern Missouri were deposited primarily or entirely in nonmarine environments.

Missouri↗

USGS1989

Graphical method for determining the coefficient of consolidation c from a flow-pump permeability test

A graphical method has been developed for determining the coefficient of consolidation from the transient phases of a flow-pump permeability test. The flow pump can be used to infuse fluid into or withdraw fluid from a laboratory sediment specimen at a constant volumetric rate in order to obtain data that can be used to calculate permeability using Darcy's law. When the initial transient-response curve (hydraulic head as a function of time) generated by this test is examined analytically in terms of a one-dimensional consolidation process, representative type-curve solutions to the associated forced-flow and pressure-decay models are derived. These curves provide the basis for graphically evaluating the permeability k , the coefficient of consolidation c v , and the coefficient of volume change m v . The curve-matching technique is easy and rapid, and it can be applied to results of forced-flow tests, both infusion and withdrawal, as well as to subsequent pressure-decay records. Values of k, c v , and m v for a laterally confined kaolinite specimen were determined by this graphical method and appear to be in reasonably good agreement with numerically derived estimates (within 20%). Discrepancies between the two sets of results seem to be largely a function of data quality rather than of method of analysis. Where responses of hydraulic head as a function of time are apparently unaffected by experimental sources of error, agreement is excellent (within 4%). Application of this graphical method to triaxial testing has inherent uncertainties, because the solution curves that describe one-dimensional deformation are used to analyze a three-dimensional process.

Geotechnical Testing Journal↗

USGS1996

A model for field toxicity tests

Toxicity tests conducted under field conditions present an interesting challenge for statistical modelling. In contrast to laboratory tests, the concentrations of potential toxicants are not held constant over the test. In addition, the number and identity of toxicants that belong in a model as explanatory factors are not known and must be determined through a model selection process. We present one model to deal with these needs. This model takes the record of mortalities to form a multinomial distribution in which parameters are modelled as products of conditional daily survival probabilities. These conditional probabilities are in turn modelled as logistic functions of the explanatory factors. The model incorporates lagged values of the explanatory factors to deal with changes in the pattern of mortalities over time. The issue of model selection and assessment is approached through the use of generalized information criteria and power divergence goodness-of-fit tests. These model selection criteria are applied in a cross-validation scheme designed to assess the ability of a model to both fit data used in estimation and predict data deleted from the estimation data set. The example presented demonstrates the need for inclusion of lagged values of the explanatory factors and suggests that penalized likelihood criteria may not provide adequate protection against overparameterized models in model selection.

Environmetrics↗

USGS2023

A field test of R package GPSeqClus: For establishing animal location clusters

The ability to track animals with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars opened an enormous potential for studying animal movements and behaviour in their natural environment. One such endeavour is to identify clusters of GPS locations as a way to estimate predator kill rate. Clapp et al. (2021) developed an R package ( GPSeqClus ) to assess a location dataset based on user-defined parameters to identify clusters and their characteristics. These characteristics can then help to distinguish resting-site clusters from kill sites of their large (>50 kg) prey. We identified location clusters of an adult male wolf Canis lupus on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada in July 2009 and tracked him until he died in April 2010. Identifying location clusters was challenging because the collar only obtained two GPS locations per day (12 h apart). In July 2010, we searched 30 of 52 location-clusters we identified as kill/scavenge sites and found 17 of them as such, given they had muskox Ovibos moschatus or caribou Rangifer tarandus pearyi remains nearby. We also documented five wolf rendezvous sites, two den sites, and the wolf's death site to total 60 location-clusters in all. We used a two-step process in testing the R Package GPSeqClus (hereafter GPSeqClus ): (1) compare the number of clusters our method discerned with the number identified by the new algorithm, and (2) compare the number of biologically significant clusters (e.g. den sites, kill/feeding sites) we found with the number the new algorithm located. We made these tests with GPSeqClus by varying the search radius, number of days at a site, and minimum number of locations required for a cluster. GPSeqClus compared well to our technique, with the best sub-algorithm among the 25 we tested only missing three of our identified clusters and yielding six additional clusters. GPSeqClus identified 16 of the 17 confirmed sites of remains, all wolf home sites, and the wolf's carcass site. Identifying clusters using a 500-m search radius, a 1.5-day window, and a minimum of two GPS locations per cluster was suitable for a coarse GPS acquisition rate of two locations per day when prey are large, such as muskox or caribou. Given that GPSeqClus performed well with our coarse location dataset, we expect it will also perform even better with a collar acquiring more than two locations per day. Having a field-tested utility such as GPSeqClus will enhance carnivore predation studies elsewhere.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

USGS2016

Using an interlaboratory study to revise methods for conducting 10-d to 42-d water or sediment toxicity tests with Hyalella azteca

Studies have been conducted to refine US Environmental Protection Agency, ASTM International, and Environment Canada standard methods for conducting 42-d reproduction tests with Hyalella azteca in water or in sediment. Modifications to the H. azteca method include better-defined ionic composition requirements for exposure water (i.e., >15 mg/L of chloride and >0.02 mg/L of bromide) and improved survival, growth, and reproduction with alternate diets provided as increased rations over time in water-only or whole-sediment toxicity tests. A total of 24 laboratories volunteered to participate in the present interlaboratory study evaluating the performance of H. azteca in 42-d studies in control sand or control sediment using the refined methods. Improved growth and reproduction of H. azteca was observed with 2 alternate diets of 1) ramped diatoms ( Thalassiosira weissflogii ) + ramped Tetramin or 2) yeast–cerophyll–trout chow (YCT) + ramped Tetramin, especially when compared with results from the traditional diet of 1.8 mg YCT/d. Laboratories were able to meet proposed test acceptability criteria and in most cases had lower variation in growth or reproduction compared with previous interlaboratory studies using the traditional YCT diet. Laboratory success in conducting 42-d H. azteca exposures benefited from adherence to several key requirements of the detailed testing, culturing, and handling methods. Results from the present interlaboratory study are being used to help revise standard methods for conducting 10-d to 42-d water or sediment toxicity exposures with H. azteca .

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2018

Testing infrared camera surveys and distance analyses to estimate feral horse abundance in a known population

We tested the use of high‐resolution infrared (IR) camera technology and distance sampling analyses to estimate abundance of feral horses ( Equus caballus ) during 2015–2016 in the McCullough Peaks Herd Management Area, Wyoming, USA. Infrared technology is becoming more common in ungulate population monitoring. The quality of IR cameras now allows ungulate species to be differentiated. Imperfect detection is a common problem in aerial surveys, so we tested the use of distance sampling analyses to account for imperfect detection probability. We conducted 2 aerial surveys in a sagebrush ecosystem with a demographically closed horse population. True abundance was known to within ±4 animals as a result of intensive, ground‐based monitoring of each animal, all of which are uniquely identifiable. After truncation of our data, the most supported detection function was a uniform function with a detection probability equal to 1.0 out to 255 m. Our analyses yielded results that were within 10% of true abundance, but the coefficient of variation (CV) was large (36–58%) assuming a small sampling fraction. However, our truncated surveys covered approximately 95% of the herd management area. By including a finite population correction factor in our calculations of variance estimates, CVs (8–13%) were dramatically reduced. We found the combination of IR surveys and distance sampling analysis to be a useful method to estimate feral horse abundance in sagebrush vegetation type, which had limited cover to obscure horses. Repeated testing in sagebrush ecosystems as well as further testing in other habitat types and under differing conditions will inform how general our approach can be.

Wyoming↗

USGS1995

Comparison of methods for conducting marine and estuarine sediment porewater toxicity tests—extraction, storage, and handling techniques

A series of studies was conducted to compare different porewater extraction techniques and to evaluate the effects of sediment and porewater storage conditions on the toxicity of pore water, using assays with the sea urchin Arbacia punctulata . If care is taken in the selection of materials, several different porewater extraction techniques (pressurized squeezing, centrifugation, vacuum) yield samples with similar toxicity. Where the primary contaminants of concern are highly hydrophobic organic compounds, centrifugation is the method of choice for minimizing the loss of contaminants during the extraction procedure. No difference was found in the toxicity of pore water obtained with the Teflon® and polyvinyl chloride pressurized extraction devices. Different types of filters in the squeeze extraction devices apparently adsorbed soluble contaminants to varying degrees. The amount of fine suspended particulate material remaining in the pore water after the initial extraction varied among the methods. For most of the sediments tested, freezing and thawing did not affect the toxicity of porewater samples obtained by the pressurized squeeze extraction method. Pore water obtained by other methods (centrifugation, vacuum) and frozen without additional removal of suspended particulates by centrifugation may exhibit increased toxicity compared with the unfrozen sample. The toxicity of pore water extracted from refrigerated (4°C) sediments exhibited substantial short-term (days, weeks) changes. Similarly, sediment pore water extracted over time from a simulated amphipod solid-phase toxicity test changed substantially in toxicity. For the sediments tested, the direction and magnitude of change in toxicity of pore water extracted from both refrigerated and solid-phase test sediments was unpredictable.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2008

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for spatially correlated data

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is a convenient method for investigating whether two underlying univariate probability distributions can be regarded as undistinguishable from each other or whether an underlying probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution. Application of the test requires that the sample be unbiased and the outcomes be independent and identically distributed, conditions that are violated in several degrees by spatially continuous attributes, such as topographical elevation. A generalized form of the bootstrap method is used here for the purpose of modeling the distribution of the statistic D of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The innovation is in the resampling, which in the traditional formulation of bootstrap is done by drawing from the empirical sample with replacement presuming independence. The generalization consists of preparing resamplings with the same spatial correlation as the empirical sample. This is accomplished by reading the value of unconditional stochastic realizations at the sampling locations, realizations that are generated by simulated annealing. The new approach was tested by two empirical samples taken from an exhaustive sample closely following a lognormal distribution. One sample was a regular, unbiased sample while the other one was a clustered, preferential sample that had to be preprocessed. Our results show that the p-value for the spatially correlated case is always larger that the p-value of the statistic in the absence of spatial correlation, which is in agreement with the fact that the information content of an uncorrelated sample is larger than the one for a spatially correlated sample of the same size. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessm↗

USGS1978

Decomposition of hydroxy amino acids in foraminiferal tests; kinetics, mechanism and geochronological implications

The diagenesis of the hydroxy amino acids serine and threonine in foraminiferal tests has been investigated. The decomposition pathways of these amino acids are complex; the principal reactions appear to be dehydration, aldol cleavage and decarboxylation. Stereochemical studies indicate that the α-amino-n-butyric acid (ABA) detected in foraminiferal tests is the end product of threonine dehydration pathway. Decomposition of serine and threonine in foraminiferal tests from two well-dated Caribbean deep-sea cores, P6304-8 and -9, has been found to follow irreversible first-order kinetics. Three empirical equations were derived for the disappearance of serine and threonine and the appearance of ABA. These equations can be used as a new geochronological method for dating foraminiferal tests from other deep-sea sediments. Preliminary results suggest that ages deduced from the ABA kinetics equation are most reliable because “species effect” and contamination problems are not important for this nonbiological amino acid. Because of the variable serine and threonine contents of modern foraminiferal species, it is likely that the accurate age estimates can be obtained from the serine and threonine decomposition equations only if a homogeneous species assemblage or single species sample isolated from mixed natural assemblages is used.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS1991

Analysis of borehole expansion and gallery tests in anisotropic rock masses

Closed-form solutions are used to show how rock anisotropy affects the variation of the modulus of deformation around the walls of a hole in which expansion tests are conducted. These tests include dilatometer and NX-jack tests in boreholes and gallery tests in tunnels. The effects of rock anisotropy on the modulus of deformation are shown for transversely isotropic and regularly jointed rock masses with planes of transverse isotropy or joint planes parallel or normal to the hole longitudinal axis for plane strain or plane stress condition. The closed-form solutions can also be used when determining the elastic properties of anisotropic rock masses (intact or regularly jointed) in situ. ?? 1991.

International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining↗

USGS2014

Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: a case study on the Upper Delaware River

Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58–1.311, NSE = 0.99–0.97, d = 0.98–0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = −0.10 to −1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed well; the HFM model was the most accurate compared other models (RMSE = 0.92, both NSE = 0.98, d = 0.99) and the ARIMA model was least accurate (RMSE = 2.06, NSE = 0.92, d = 0.98); however, all models had an overestimation bias (PBIAS = −4.1 to −10.20). Aside from the one day forecast ARIMA model (md = 0.53), all models forecasted fairly well at the one, three, and five day forecasts (md = 0.77–0.96). Overall, we were successful in developing models predicting daily mean temperature across a broad range of temperatures. These models, specifically the GLScos, ANN, and HFM, may serve as important tools for predicting conditions and managing thermal releases in regulated river systems such as the Delaware River. Further model development may be important in customizing predictions for particular biological or ecological needs, or for particular temporal or spatial scales.

Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2011

Gas geochemistry of the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: implications for gas hydrate exploration in the Arctic

Gases were analyzed from well cuttings, core, gas hydrate, and formation tests at the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, drilled within the Milne Point Unit, Alaska North Slope. The well penetrated a portion of the Eileen gas hydrate deposit, which overlies the more deeply buried Prudhoe Bay, Milne Point, West Sak, and Kuparuk River oil fields. Gas sources in the upper 200 m are predominantly from microbial sources (C 1 isotopic compositions ranging from −86.4 to −80.6‰). The C 1 isotopic composition becomes progressively enriched from 200 m to the top of the gas hydrate-bearing sands at 600 m. The tested gas hydrates occur in two primary intervals, units D and C, between 614.0 m and 664.7 m, containing a total of 29.3 m of gas hydrate-bearing sands. The hydrocarbon gases in cuttings and core samples from 604 to 914 m are composed of methane with very little ethane. The isotopic composition of the methane carbon ranges from −50.1 to −43.9‰ with several outliers, generally decreasing with depth. Gas samples collected by the Modular Formation Dynamics Testing (MDT) tool in the hydrate-bearing units were similarly composed mainly of methane, with up to 284 ppm ethane. The methane isotopic composition ranged from −48.2 to −48.0‰ in the C sand and from −48.4 to −46.6‰ in the D sand. Methane hydrogen isotopic composition ranged from −238 to −230‰, with slightly more depleted values in the deeper C sand. These results are consistent with the concept that the Eileen gas hydrates contain a mixture of deep-sourced, microbially biodegraded thermogenic gas, with lesser amounts of thermogenic oil-associated gas, and coal gas. Thermal gases are likely sourced from existing oil and gas accumulations that have migrated up-dip and/or up-fault and formed gas hydrate in response to climate cooling with permafrost formation.

Alaska↗