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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Ecological associations of non-native ungulates on the Hawaiian Island of Lāna‘i

Sustained-yield hunting of introduced ungulates in the Hawaiian Islands often conflicts with the conservation of native species, but there is little reliable data to guide effective management. European mouflon sheep ( Ovis musimon ; mouflon) and axis deer ( Axis axis ; deer) were introduced on the island of Lāna‘i to provide additional hunting opportunities. Managers will require better information regarding the ecological associations of introduced ungulate species, relative to the habitats occupied, to resolve longstanding conflicts between native species conservation and sustained-yield hunting on islands. To address this information need, we modeled sheep and deer ecological associations, habitat-use, and suitability using data obtained from an intensive aerial survey completed in 2013 and temporally matching environmental data. In habitat suitability models evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) metrics, predictor importance in a generalized linear model (GLM) of deer decreased in the following order: afternoon cloud cover, topographic slope, mean annual precipitation (MAP), elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and bare soil index. In a random GLM model of mouflon, predictor importance decreased in the following order: afternoon cloud cover, deer habitat suitability, NDVI, bare soil index, topographic slope, elevation, and MAP. Mouflon were restricted to lower elevation arid slopes, whereas deer were more broadly distributed throughout upland environments of the island. The presence of deer was also an important predictor for mouflon distribution, although mouflon was not an important predictor of deer, suggesting asymmetrical competition. Removal of the more abundant deer population may lead to an increase in abundance and distribution of mouflon without containment. This work represents the first habitat suitability analysis for all nonnative ungulates on any entire Hawaiian island. Our results are applicable to other islands where conflicts may arise with introduced ungulates, sustained-yield hunting, and native species conservation.

Hawaii

Salinas Valley integrated hydrologic and reservoir operations models, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California

The area surrounding the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties of California is a highly productive agricultural area, contributes significantly to the local economy, and provides a substantial portion of vegetables and other agricultural commodities to the Nation. This region of California provides about half of the Nation’s lettuce, celery, broccoli, and spinach each year. Thus, this agricultural area provides significant volumes of agricultural products not just for California but the entire United States. Changes in population and increased agricultural development, which includes a shift toward more water-intensive crops, and climate variability, have put increasing demand on both surface water and groundwater resources in the valley. This has resulted in water management challenges in the Salinas Valley that are predominantly related to distribution of water supply throughout the basin. Where and when the water is present in the surface and subsurface does not coincide with where and when the water is needed. To deal with the distribution issue, historically water has been used conjunctively in the valley. Conjunctive use is a water management strategy that coordinates surface water and groundwater use to maximize water availability. Groundwater is used throughout the Salinas Valley to meet water demands when surface water supplies are insufficient. Availability of surface water is constrained by climate. Precipitation and streamflow vary seasonally and year to year. Although there are two reservoirs in the Salinas Valley to capture and store water during wet periods, the only conveyance of reservoir water to coastal agricultural areas is the Salinas River. Increasing demand on groundwater and surface water resources throughout the Salinas Valley has resulted in undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, such as surface water depletion, groundwater level declines, storage depletion in the principal aquifers, and seawater intrusion. To address these escalating issues, local communities, water management agencies, and groundwater sustainability agencies are evaluating how to sustainably manage both their surface water and groundwater resources. To meet water demands and reduce undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, continued conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater would ideally incorporate strategies to deal with increases in demand and a variable climate. To evaluate the challenging water management issues in the Salinas Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, Monterey County Water Resource Agency, and the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency developed a comprehensive suite of models that represent the Salinas Valley Hydrogeologic system called the Salinas Valley System Model. The Salinas Valley Geologic Framework was developed to characterize the subsurface using various topographic and geologic data sources, including information on hydrogeologic units, their surfaces and extents, geologic structures, lithology, and elevations from borehole data and cross sections, as well as details on faults and existing models. The Salinas Valley Watershed Model simulates the entire Salinas River watershed. Monthly surface water inflows into the integrated hydrologic model domain were simulated using the Salinas Valley Watershed Model. The historical model uses historical climate data, water and land use data, and reservoir releases to simulate agricultural operations, including landscape water demands, diversions, and reclaimed wastewater. The operational model adds an embedded reservoir operations framework to the simulation of the historical model that allows specified operational rules to simulate reservoir releases and changes in reservoir storage. The operational model assumes current reservoir operations and constant land use, which differs from historical conditions. Thus, the operational model is a hypothetical baseline model that can be used by local water managers to evaluate and quantify potential benefits of water supply projects. Together, the geologic framework, watershed, historical, and operational models form a tool that can be used to simulate irrigated agriculture and associated reservoir operations of the integrated hydrologic system of the Salinas Valley.

EarthArXiv

Water availability for the Western United States--Key scientific challenges

In the Western United States, the availability of water has become a serious concern for many communities and rural areas. Near population centers, surface-water supplies are fully appropriated, and many communities are dependent upon ground water drawn from storage, which is an unsustainable strategy. Water of acceptable quality is increasingly hard to find because local sources are allocated to prior uses, depleted by overpumping, or diminished by drought stress. Some of the inherent characteristics of the West add complexity to the task of securing water supplies. The Western States, including the arid Southwest, have the most rapid population growth in the United States. The climate varies widely in the West, but it is best known for its low precipitation, aridity, and drought. There is evidence that the climate is warming, which will have consequences for Western water supplies, such as increased minimum streamflow and earlier snowmelt events in snow-dominated basins. The potential for departures from average climatic conditions threatens to disrupt society and local to regional economies. The appropriative rights doctrine governs the management of water in most Western States, although some aspects of the riparian doctrine are being incorporated. The 'use it or lose it' provisions of Western water law discourage conservation and make the reallocation of water to instream environmental uses more difficult. The hydrologic sciences have defined the interconnectedness of ground water and surface water, yet these resources are still administered separately by most States. The definition of water availability has been expanded to include sustaining riparian ecosystems and individual endangered species, which are disproportionately represented in the Western States. Federal reserved rights, common in the West because of the large amount of Federal land, exist with quite senior priority dates whether or not water is currently being used. A major challenge for water users in the West is that these reserved rights may supersede other existing users. The minimum amount of water required, however, to sustain native peoples, a riparian system, or an endangered species eventually will need to be known in order to manage the available water supply. Periodic inventory and assessment of the amounts and trends of water available in surface water and ground water are needed to support water management. There is a widespread perception that the amount of available water is diminishing with time. This and other perceptions about water availability should be replaced by objective data and analysis. Some data are presented here for the major Western rivers that show that flows are not decreasing in most streams and rivers in the West. Systematic information is lacking to make broad assessments of ground-water availability, but available data for specific aquifers indicate that these aquifers are being depleted, especially near population centers. The complexity added to the issue of Western water availability by these and other factors gives rise to a significant role of science. Science has played a role in support of Western water development from the beginning, and the role has evolved and changed over time as society's values have changed. In this report, the role of science is discussed in three phases: (1) development and construction, (2) consequences and environmental awareness, and (3) sustainability. The development and construction phase includes some historical accounting of water development in the West and shows how some precedents set in those early days are still applied today.

western United States

U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program, 2001

Ground water is among the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides drinking water to urban and rural communities, supports irrigation and industry, sustains the flow of streams and rivers, and maintains riparian and wetland ecosystems. In many areas of the Nation, the future sustainability of ground-water resources is at risk from over use and contamination. Because ground-water systems typically respond slowly to human actions and climate variability, a long-term perspective is needed to manage this valuable resource. The U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program provides regional evaluations, fundamental data, and predictive tools to help assure the sustainability of our Nation's ground-water resources.

Fact Sheet

Construction of a groundwater-flow model for the Big Sioux Aquifer using airborne electromagnetic methods, Sioux Falls, South Dakota

The city of Sioux Falls is the fastest growing community in South Dakota. In response to this continued growth and planning for future development, Sioux Falls requires a sustainable supply of municipal water. Planning and managing sustainable groundwater supplies requires a thorough understanding of local groundwater resources. The Big Sioux aquifer consists of glacial outwash sands and gravels and is hydraulically connected to the Big Sioux River, which provided about 90 percent of the city’s source-water production in 2015. Managing sustainable groundwater supplies also requires an understanding of groundwater availability. An effective mechanism to inform water management decisions is the development and utilization of a groundwater-flow model. A groundwater-flow model provides a quantitative framework for synthesizing field information and conceptualizing hydrogeologic processes. These groundwater-flow models can support decision making processes by mapping and characterizing the aquifer. Accordingly, the city of Sioux Falls partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey to construct a groundwater-flow model. Model inputs will include data from advanced geophysical techniques, specifically airborne electromagnetic methods.

South Dakota

Construction, Geology, and Aquifer Testing of the Maalo Road, Aahoaka Hill, and Upper Eleele Tank Monitor Wells, Kauai, Hawaii

The Maalo Road, Aahoaka Hill, and Upper Eleele Tank monitor wells were constructed using rotary drilling methods between July 1998 and August 2002 as part of a program of exploratory drilling, aquifer testing, and hydrologic analysis on Kauai. Aquifer tests were conducted in the uncased boreholes of the wells. The Maalo Road monitor well in the Lihue Basin penetrated 915 feet, mostly through mafic lava flows. Most of the rock samples from this well had chemical compositions similar to the Koloa Volcanics, but the deepest sample analyzed had a composition similar to the Waimea Canyon Basalt. Water temperature ranged from 25.6 to 27.4 degrees Celsius and specific conductance ranged from 303 to 627 microsiemens per centimeter during aquifer testing. Discharge rate ranged from 174 to 220 gallons per minute and maximum drawdown was 138.25 ft during a 7-day sustained-discharge test, but the test was affected by pump and generator problems. The Aahoaka Hill monitor well in the Lihue Basin penetrated 804 feet, mostly through mafic lava flows and possibly dikes. The well penetrated rocks having chemical compositions similar to the Waimea Canyon Basalt. During the first three hours of a sustained-discharge aquifer test in which the discharge rate varied between 92 and 117 gallons per minute, water temperature was 24.6 to 25.6 degrees Celsius, and specific conductance was 212 to 238 microsiemens per centimeter; this test was halted after a short period because drawdown was high. In a subsequent 7-day test, discharge was 8 to 23 gallons per minute, and maximum drawdown was 37.71 feet after 1,515 minutes of testing. The Upper Eleele Tank monitor well is near the Hanapepe River Valley. The well penetrated 740 feet through soil, sediment, mafic lava flows, volcanic ash, and scoria. Rocks above a depth of 345 feet had compositions similar to the Koloa Volcanics, but a sample from 720 to 725 feet had a composition similar to rocks of the Waimea Canyon Basalt. During a 7-day aquifer test with a sustained discharge between 278 and 290 gallons per minute, most of the drawdown of 1.10 feet occurred in the first 455 minutes of the test. Water levels measured thereafter may have been influenced by pumping from a nearby well. Water temperature ranged from 20.2 to 21.4 degrees Celsius and specific conductance from 8,380 to 18,940 microsiemens per centimeter during the aquifer tests.

Open-File Report

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: Recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex

&bull; On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in <6 weeks came ashore near J. N. &ldquo;Ding&rdquo; Darling National Wildlife Refuge (JNDDNWR) Complex, Sanibel Island, Florida. The eye of Category 4 Hurricane Charley passed just north of Sanibel Island with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (123 knots) and a storm surge of 0.3-2.7 m (1-9 ft). Three USGS-BRD scientists (coastal ecologist and research wildlife biologists) and a USFWS wildlife biologist surveyed the storm damage to JNDDNWR Complex on the ground from 20-24 September 2004. &bull; At the request of United States Fish and Wildlife Service refuge staff, the USGS team concentrated on assessing damage to wetlands and habitat for selected bird populations (especially mangrove forests, Mangrove Cuckoos [Coccyzus minor], and Black-whiskered Vireo [Vireo altiloquus]), waterbird rookeries (mangrove islands), impoundments (waterbirds and waterfowl), sea grass beds (manatees), and upland hardwood hammocks and ridges (threatened eastern indigo snake [Drymarchon couperi]). &bull; The refuge complex sustained moderate to catastrophic damage to vegetation, especially mangrove forests and waterbird nesting or roosting islands. Lumpkin Island, Hemp Island, and Bird Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). The Shell Mound Trail area of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area of the JNDDNWR Complex was probably slight as manatees may have several strategies to reduce storm mortality. Damage to seagrass beds, an important habitat for manatees, fishes and invertebrates, is believed to be limited to the breach at North Captiva Island. At this breach, refuge staff documented inundation of beds by sand and scarring by trees dragged by winds. &bull; Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries (see p. 28), a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees is recommended. &bull; Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), the survey team recommends that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk (this songbird is habitat-area sensitive). Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Monitoring for these species can be done by distance sampling on transects or by species presenceabsence from point counts. &bull; Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. &bull; Potential loss of wetlands (and information for management) may be prevented by water level monitoring (3 permanent stations), locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of the refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey and may become more dominant in areas damaged by the storm. Special attention is needed to eradicate these exotic plants. &bull; As an important monitoring goal, the survey team recommends that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Florida

Baseline data for evaluating development trajectory and provision of ecosystem services of created fringing oyster reefs in Vermilion Bay, Louisiana

Understanding the time frame in which ecosystem services (that is, water quality maintenance, shoreline protection, habitat provision) are expected to be provided is important when restoration projects are being designed and implemented. Restoration of three-dimensional shell habitats in coastal Louisiana and elsewhere presents a valuable and potentially self-sustaining approach to providing shoreline protection, enhancing nekton habitat, and providing water quality maintenance. As with most restoration projects, the development of expected different ecosystem services often occurs over varying time frames, with some services provided immediately and others taking longer to develop. This project was designed initially to compare the provision and development of ecosystem services by created fringing shoreline reefs in subtidal and intertidal environments in Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. Specifically, the goal was to test the null hypothesis that over time, the oyster recruitment and development of a sustainable oyster reef community would be similar at both intertidal and subtidal reef bases, and these sustainable reefs would in time provide similar shoreline stabilization, nekton habitat, and water quality services over similar time frames. Because the ecosystem services hypothesized to be provided by oyster reefs reflect long-term processes, fully testing the above-stated null hypothesis requires a longer-time frame than this project allowed. As such, this project was designed to provide the initial data on reef development and provision of ecosystem services, to identify services that may develop immediately, and to provide baseline data to allow for longer-term follow up studies tracking reef development over time. Unfortunately, these initially created reef bases (subtidal, intertidal) were not constructed as planned because of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010, which resulted in reef duplicates being created 6 months apart. Further confounding the project were additional construction and restoration projects along the same shorelines which occurred between 2011 and June 2012. Because of constant activity near and around the reefs and continuing construction, development trajectories could not be compared among reef types at this time. This report presents the data collected at the sites over 3 years (2010–2012), describing only conditions and trends. In addition, these data provide an extensive and detailed dataset documenting initial conditions and initial ecosystem changes which will prove valuable in future data collection and analyses of reef development at this site. Data collection characterized the local water quality conditions (salinity, temperature, total suspended sediments, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a), adjacent marsh vegetation, soils, and shoreline position along the project shoreline at Vermilion Bay. During the study, marsh vegetation and soil characteristics were similar across the study area and did not change over time. Shoreline movement indicated shoreline loss at all sites, which varied by reefs. Water quality conditions followed expected seasonal patterns for this region, and no significant nonseasonal changes were measured throughout the study period. Despite oyster recruitment in fall 2010 and 2011, few if any oysters survived from the 2010 year class to 2012. At the last sampling of this project, some oysters recruited in fall 2011 survived through 2012, resulting in an on-reef density of 18.3 ± 2.1 individuals per square meter (mean size: 85.6 ± 2.2 millimeters). Because project goals were to compare reef development and provision of ecosystem services over time, as well as many of the processes identified for monitoring reflect long-term processes, results and data are presented only qualitatively, and trends or observations should be interpreted cautiously at this point. Measurable system responses to reef establishment require more time than was available for this study. These data provide a valuable baseline that can be ultimately used to help inform site selections for future restoration projects as well to further investigate the development trajectories of ecosystem provision of created reefs in this region.

Louisiana

Monitoring framework for evaluating hydrogeomorphic and vegetation responses to environmental flows in the Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, and Santiam River Basins, Oregon

This report summarizes a framework for monitoring hydrogeomorphic and vegetation responses to environmental flows in support of the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Program (SRP). The SRP is a partnership between The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to provide ecologically sustainable flows downstream of dams while still meeting human needs and congressionally authorized purposes. TNC, USACE, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this framework specifically for the spawning reaches and lower, alluvial reaches of the Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, North Santiam, South Santiam, and main-stem Santiam Rivers. This monitoring framework links stakeholder-defined ecological goals and environmental flow recommendations with measurable objectives and monitoring activities to assess whether those objectives are achieved. Monitoring activities are described for distinct spatial scales (reaches, zones, and sites), which are coupled with appropriate measurement frequency (monthly to decadal or following specific flow conditions). Initial monitoring efforts could focus on developing baseline datasets for tracking future changes and developing robust relationships between flow and hydrogeomorphic and vegetation processes. These relationships would support stakeholders in developing refined environmental flow recommendations that could be efficiently evaluated in the future using continuous discharge records and strategic field-based monitoring. Environmental flow recommendations were developed to achieve certain hydraulic targets (generally defined through water-surface elevation and inundation extent) to support critical habitats for native species at different times of the year. Additionally, flow recommendations were created to support geomorphic processes that create and sustain important riparian and aquatic habitats. The spatial extent, depth, timing, duration, and frequency of inundation extents can be monitored using a combination of water-level loggers, crest-stage gages, surveys, and mapping from aerial photographs or satellite images. Changes in channel morphology (such as increases in gravel bars, side channels or channel width) can be evaluated through repeat mapping of aerial photographs or lidar and carried, and repeat surveys of channel-bed elevations could document patterns of incision or aggradation. Changes in bed texture (such as fining or coarsening) could focus on spawning habitats for spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Deposition of fine-grained sediment in floodplain channels could be evaluated with deposition pads, repeat surveys, or lidar. Environmental flow recommendations also were developed to promote various stages of floodplain forest succession, with a focus on black cottonwood ( Populus trichocarpa ) because its life history is tightly coupled with floodplain hydrology and disturbance processes. Monitoring approaches for vegetation include strategies for tracking all phases of stand recruitment, establishment, and succession for black cottonwood. Potential recruitment sites can be identified by mapping unvegetated gravel bars from aerial photographs or lidar. Reach-scale patterns of stand recruitment and early succession can be monitored at the reach scale by mapping seral stages of floodplain vegetation from aerial photographs and lidar at the decadal scale. These monitoring approaches also could identify areas of stand recruitment or floodplain recycling. Site-scale monitoring of black cottonwood recruitment and establishment could focus on vegetation plots situated along floodplain transects within laterally dynamic monitoring zones to track seedling establishment or stem exclusion and early seral succession. Reach-scale landcover mapping from aerial photographs and lidar would complement site-scale observations and aid in characterizing overall status and condition of floodplain forests, which could be related to streamflows and hydrogeomorphic processes.

Oregon

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Irma along the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Southeastern United States, September 2017

Hurricane Irma skirted the northern coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour (mi/h) on September 6, 2017. The hurricane first made landfall in Florida near Cudjoe Key, in the lower Florida Keys, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mi/h on September 10, 2017. The hurricane made a second Florida landfall on Marco Island, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mi/h on September 10, 2017. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Federal Emergency Management Agency, deployed a temporary monitoring network of water-level and barometric pressure sensors at 249 locations along the Puerto Rico, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by the hurricane. Immediately following the passage of Hurricane Irma, the sensors were retrieved, and the data were disseminated on the USGS Flood Event Viewer ( https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#IrmaSeptember2017 ). The storm-tide peak data values were verified by comparing data from hydrologic recorders and nearby high-water marks (HWMs). Following the hurricane, 508 independent HWM locations were flagged and surveyed relative to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, or a local datum along the southeastern U.S. coast, and to Puerto Rico Vertical Datum of 2002 in Puerto Rico. Most HWMs were in Florida because of the path of the hurricane. The data from the Hurricane Irma storm-tide network are available on a provisional basis in tab-delimited, American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format and Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format by site for each sensor by using the USGS Flood Event Viewer.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

Development of a two-stage life cycle model for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, Washington

Recovery of salmon populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin depends on trap-and-haul efforts owing to impassable dams. Therefore, successful recovery depends on the collection of out-migrating juvenile salmon at Cowlitz Falls Dam (CFD) for transport below downstream dams, as well as the collection of adults for transport upstream from the dams. Tacoma Power began downstream fish collection efforts at CFD in the mid-1990s and has been working consistently since then to improve collection efficiency to support self-sustaining salmon and steelhead ( Onchorhynchus spp.) populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin. Although much work has focused on estimating fish collection efficiency (FCE), there has been relatively little focus on modeling population dynamics to understand how fish collection efficiency and other factors drive production of both juvenile and adult salmon over their life cycle. As a first step towards understanding the factors affecting population dynamics of Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, we developed a statistical life cycle model using adult escapement and age structure data, juvenile collection data, and juvenile fish collection efficiency estimates. The goal of the statistical life cycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: the freshwater production from escapement of adults upstream from CFD to collection of juveniles at CFD, and the juvenile-to-adult survival from the time of collection at the dam to the return of adults. To structure the life cycle model, we used the Ricker stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of parent spawners. This approach allowed us to account for density dependence at high spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. We then expressed productivity as a function two key variables affecting the number of juveniles collected and transported at CFD: (1) annual FCE, and (2) the annual number of days that spill occurred at CFD from September 1 to April 30. Our key findings were as follows: FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon upstream from CFD because FCE affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration; Juvenile-to-adult return (JAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 3.6 percent and ranging as high as 9.1 percent, suggesting that adult coho salmon may be able to return to CFD at sustainable population sizes; and Much variation in the estimates of juvenile fish production upriver of CFD was unexplained even after adult escapement and FCE were accounted for, suggesting that the model may be improved by exploring different covariates and model structures for juvenile production as well as JAR rates. Additionally, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 108.4 juveniles per spawner. Because this two-stage life cycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in river compared to the ocean environment and fish life stages, the model estimates should help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at CFD may have on the recovery and sustainability of coho salmon populations.

Washington

Yuma Ridgway’s rail selenium exposure and occupancy within managed and unmanaged emergent marshes at the Salton Sea

Yuma Ridgway’s rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis , hereafter, rail) is an endangered species for which patches of emergent marsh within the Salton Sea watershed comprise a substantial part of habitat for the species’ disjointed range in the southwestern United States. These areas of emergent marsh include (1) marshes managed by federal (particularly the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife Refuge), state (California Department of Fish and Wildlife), and local (Imperial Irrigation District) resource agencies that are sustained by direct deliveries of Colorado River water and (2) unmanaged marshes sustained by agricultural drainage water. Management of rail habitat in this arid environment is complicated by increasingly limited availability of unimpaired freshwater owing to water management decisions associated with the Quantification Settlement Agreement and risks posed by potentially harmful concentrations of selenium found in agricultural drainage water that can readily bioaccumulate in aquatic food webs. To provide timely science for managers, herein we report summary statistics for managed and unmanaged emergent marshes sampled at the Salton Sea during the rail breeding season of 2016 pertaining to (1) selenium concentrations in food webs representing dietary pathways of selenium exposure and (2) patterns of rail occupancy and inter-marsh movements, estimated abundance, and regional population size of rail. For selenium-specific objectives, we sampled unfiltered surface water, midge larvae (Chironomidae), water boatmen (Corixidae), mosquitofish ( Gambusia spp.), and crayfish (Astacidae). Selenium samples were collected from 15 fixed sampling points, each in managed and unmanaged marshes, during late February, April, and June 2016, which corresponded to rail pre-nesting, nesting, and fledgling reproductive life-stages, respectively. Two areas within the two treatment types (managed versus unmanaged marsh) were of particular interest to help assess risks associated with changing sea dynamics and different water-management strategies: (1) a large unmanaged marsh (Morton Bay) unintentionally created in approximately 2008 when it became separated from the Salton Sea as water inflows began to drop and a berm formed from accumulated sediment and (2) a restored marsh (HZ9A) managed by the Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife Refuge, which is currently supplied with Colorado River water but may be sustained in the future by a blend of clean (that is, low selenium) Colorado River and agricultural drainage water with higher selenium from the Alamo River. Hence, baseline data for these marshes are important for future management decisions. We also report selenium concentrations in rail blood, head feathers, and breast feathers from rails captured as part of the movement study. Results indicated relatively higher risks from dietary selenium exposure for rails occupying unmanaged marshes compared to managed marshes and similar risks among unmanaged marshes. However, risks also were potentially elevated for rails occupying some managed marshes (that is, the Hazard Marshes), where relatively high proportions of Chironomidae and mosquitofish exceeded dietary thresholds for selenium effects on avian reproduction. For rail-specific objectives, we quantified occupancy and spatial distribution using call count data analyzed with imperfect detection models. Imperfect detection models allowed us to jointly estimate detection probability and abundance of detected rails in association with habitats. We then used estimates of detection probability and abundance at the habitat level to extrapolate rail population abundance for the Salton Sea region. Inter- and intra-marsh movements were described from over 5,000 locations obtained from 15 radio-marked rails. Resultant space use patterns indicated that, in general, selenium risk to individuals is not equally shared because of high levels of territoriality and very limited movement throughout the landscape. Moreover, the largest contiguous blocks of habitat are associated with unmanaged marshlands located on the former southeastern shoreline and outside traditional management areas and authorities. Thus, a substantial proportion of the rail population that is using unmanaged marsh on the southeastern shoreline may have disproportionate risk of elevated selenium exposure, yet how that risk translates to population-level effects remains unknown.

California

The evolution of the southern California uplift, 1955 through 1976

The southern California uplift culminated in 1974 as a 150- km-wide crustal swell that extended about 600 km eastward and east-southeastward from Point Arguello to the Colorado River and Salton Sea, respectively; it was characterized by remarkably uniform height changes between 1959 and 1974 of 0.30-0.35 m over at least half of its 60,000-70,000 km 2 area. At its zenith, the uplift included virtually the entire Transverse Ranges geologic province and parts of the Coast Ranges, San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada, Basin and Range, Mojave Desert, Peninsular Ranges, and Salton Trough provinces. The alinement of the western part of the uplift closely paralleled the east-trending Transverse Ranges, whereas the southern flank of the eastern lobe roughly coincided with the west-northwest-trending San Andreas fault. The position and configuration of the uplift associate it with a singularly complex section of the boundary between the North American and Pacific plates that has certainly sustained major modification during the past 5 million years and probably during the past 1 million years. Surface deformation can be categorized as tectonic or nontectonic. Nontectonic vertical displacements associated with the activities of man have overwhelmed natural compaction and areally significant soil expansion in the southern California area. Because tectonic displacements are implicitly defined as those that cannot be otherwise explained, those vertical movements that can be reasonably attributed to artificial processes have been subtracted from our reconstructed configurations of the uplift. Hence this reconstruction has necessarily included the assembly and evaluation of an enormous volume of data on oil-field operations, changes in ground-water levels, and measured subsidence (or rebound) associated with changes in the underground fluid regimen. Measured changes in height at various stages in the evolution of the uplift have been based chiefly on first-order levelings carried out between 1953 and 1976. Exceptions to this generalization consist largely of the results of pre-1953 surveys through the western Transverse Ranges and the eastern Mojave Desert. Errors in measured height differences derive from blunders, systematic survey errors, random survey errors, improperly formulated orthometric corrections, and intrasurvey movement; the last of these has created the most serious problems encountered in our reconstruction of the basic data. A variety of independent tests indicate that survey error associated with the utilized levelings was generally small and fell largely within the predicted random-error range. Moreover, the redundancy and coherence displayed by the entire data set provide convincing evidence of survey accuracy and the virtual absence of height- and slope-dependent error in particular. Our reconstructions of the changing configuration of the uplift derive chiefly from comparisons among sequentially developed observed elevations along the same route. Most of the observed elevations from which the vertical displacements were computed have been reconstructed with respect to bench mark Tidal 8, San Pedro, as invariant in height. Because the San Pedro tide station has been characterized by a history of modest relative uplift, vertical displacements referred to this station are biased slightly toward the appearance of subsidence. Where the observed elevations cannot be conveniently tied to Tidal 8, they have been referred to secondary control points whose history with respect to Tidal 8 can be independently established. Each of the lines of observed elevation changes provides, accordingly, a section athwart or along the axis of the uplift from which the changes in the configuration of the uplift can be roughly generalized. Because relatively few surveys were run in 1955, which we choose as a representative temporal datum, we have commonly incorporated the results of earlier or of somewhat later levelings as the equivalents of 1955 surveys. Although this procedure introduces a certain subjectivity, the probable equivalence between the results of these earlier or later surveys with those that would have been obtained had this leveling been carried out in 1955, usually can be independently tested. Wherever the calculated vertical displacements are based on comparisons between the results of levelings over different routes, the observed elevations have been orthometrically corrected to agree with those that would have been produced had each of these surveys been along the same route. The growth of the southern California uplift consisted of two well-defined spasms of positive movement, the second of which was closely followed by partial collapse. Our reconstruction, although it clearly errs in detail, indicates that the uplift, together with marginal and apparently ephemeral tectonic subsidence, nucleated in the west-central Transverse Ranges near Ozena, sometime between the spring of 1959 and the spring of 1960. The uplift expanded rapidly eastward (and probably westward as well), and by the fall of 1961 much of the Transverse Ranges and the Mojave Desert at least as far east as Twentynine Palms had risen by as much as 0.25 m. Between 1962 and 1972 the area included by the initially developed (1959-61) uplift sustained additional but clearly decelerating uplift accompanied locally by oscillatory displacements. Between 1972/ 73 and 1974 a second crustal spasm extended the uplift eastward to the Colorado River and elevated much of the eastern Mojave Desert by values that equaled or exceeded those developed within the western lobe. Between 1974 and 1976, at least the central part of the uplift sustained partial collapse that nowhere amounted to less than 50 percent of the cumulative uplift since 1959. Whether this collapse affected the entire uplift is conjectural, but we now recognize well-defined evidence of major down-to-the-north tilting that must have occurred within the eastern part of the uplift at some time between 1974 and 1976. Accumulating evidence indicates that nearly all the area included with the southern California uplift underwent similar uplift and partial collapse during the early part of the 20th century. Thus we infer that the recent uplift represents but a single event in an ongoing, more or less cyclic deformational process characterized by a period of about 50 years. Even though less than two full cycles are expressed in the geodetic record, the cumulative rate of uplift near the center of the recent uplift probably has averaged about 5 mm/yr, a value that is roughly consistent with the uplift rates that have been deduced for the late Quaternary emergent marine terraces along the south flank of the Transverse Ranges. Although the evolution of the recent uplift is relatively well defined, its correlation with the regional seismicity is poorly defined. A comparison between the occurrence of southern California earthquakes of magnitude ≥4 during the period 1932 to 1976 with the 1974 configuration of the uplift demonstrates the existence of (1) relatively aseismic areas within the western lobe of the uplift (in the western Transverse Ranges), in the central part of the uplift (in the western Mojave Desert), and along an east-trending zone that extends into the eastern Mojave athwart the south flank of the uplift (north of the Salton Sea) and (2) localized concentrations of seismic activity along the flanks of the uplift. Moreover, 9 of the 10 largest earthquakes recorded within or around the area of the southern California uplift during the period 1932 to 1976 (the 1933 Long Beach, the 1941 Santa Barbara, the 1946 Walker Pass, the 1947 Manix, the 1948 Desert Hot Springs, and the four major 1952 Kern County shocks) occurred before the inception of the uplift in 1959 or 1960. The area embraced by the southern California uplift has been identified with geodetically defined horizontal strain, part of which may have accumulated as a major north-south contractional event that roughly coincided with the first spasm of uplift. Nonetheless, continuing contractional strain associated with regionally developed partial collapse argues that the uplift cannot be fully explained simply as the vertical expression of continuing north-south compression. Consideration of the two well-defined historical episodes of uplift and partial collapse indicate that the southern California uplift may be the product of decoupling and viscous flow beneath the seismogenic zone, presumably driven by continuing motion between the irregularly margined plates south of the great bend of the San Andreas fault. Because the magnitude of the maximum uplift associated with each episode was approximately the same, there may be some threshold value above which collapse (viscous flow) may ensue; the absence of total collapse may be a function of precollapse strain hardening within the postulated subseismogenic viscoelastic layer.

California

Environmental considerations related to mining of nonfuel minerals

Throughout most of human history, environmental stewardship during mining has not been a priority partly because of the lack of applicable laws and regulations and partly because of ignorance about the effects that mining can have on the environment. In the United States, the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, in conjunction with related laws, codified a more modern approach to mining, including the responsibility for environmental stewardship, and provided a framework for incorporating environmental protection into mine planning. Today, similar frameworks are in place in the other developed countries of the world, and international mining companies generally follow similar procedures wherever they work in the world. The regulatory guidance has fostered an international effort among all stakeholders to identify best practices for environmental stewardship. The modern approach to mining using best practices involves the following: (a) establishment of a pre-mining baseline from which to monitor environmental effects during mining and help establish geologically reasonable closure goals; (b) identification of environmental risks related to mining through standardized approaches; and (c) formulation of an environmental closure plan before the start of mining. A key aspect of identifying the environmental risks and mitigating those risks is understanding how the risks vary from one deposit type to another—a concept that forms the basis for geoenvironmental mineral-deposit models. Accompanying the quest for best practices is the goal of making mining sustainable into the future. Sustainable mine development is generally considered to be development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The concept extends beyond the availability of nonrenewable mineral commodities and includes the environmental and social effects of mine development. Global population growth, meanwhile, has decreased the percentage of inhabitable land available to support society’s material needs. Presently, the land area available to supply the mineral resources, energy resources, water, food, shelter, and waste disposal needs of all Earth’s inhabitants is estimated to be 135 square meters per person. Continued global population growth will only increase the challenges of sustainable mining. Current trends in mining are also expected to lead to new environmental challenges in the future, among which are mine-waste management issues related to mining larger deposits for lower ore grade; water-management issues related to both the mining of larger deposits and the changes in precipitation brought about by climate change; and greenhouse gas issues related to reducing the carbon footprint of larger, more energy-intensive mining operations.

Professional Paper

Status of groundwater levels and storage volume in the Equus Beds aquifer near Wichita, Kansas, January 2006 to January 2010

A part of the Equus Beds aquifer in southwestern Harvey County and northwestern Sedgwick County was developed to supply water to residents of Wichita and for irrigation in south-central Kansas. Groundwater pumping for city and agricultural use caused water levels to decline in a large part of the aquifer northwest of Wichita. In 1965, the city of Wichita began using water from Cheney Reservoir in addition to water from the Equus Beds aquifer to meet the city's increasing demand for water. Irrigation pumpage in the area increased substantially during the 1970s and 1980s and contributed to the water-level declines. Water-level declines reached their maximum to date in October 1992. Proposals to artificially recharge the aquifer have been made since the 1950s to meet future water-supply needs and to protect the aquifer from the intrusion of saltwater from sources to the south and west. In 2007, Wichita implemented Phase 1 of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project for large-scale artificial recharge of the aquifer. A period of water-level rises associated with greater-than-average precipitation and decreased city pumpage from the area began in 1993 and continued through January 2010. During January 2010, the direction of ground-water flow in the Equus Beds aquifer in the area was generally from west to east, similar to the direction prior to development of the aquifer. Water-level changes since 1940 for the period January 2006 to January 2010 ranged from a decline of more than 30 feet to a rise of more than 4 feet. Almost all wells in the area had cumulative water-level rises from October 1992 (period of maximum storage loss) to January 2010 and from January 2007 (beginning of large-scale artificial recharge) to January 2010. The average cumulative water-level change from October 1992 to January 2010 was a rise of about 8.7 feet and from January 2007 to January 2010 was a rise of about 3.2 feet. The storage-volume change in the study area for the period October 1992 to January 2010 represented a recovery of about 183,000 acre-feet, or about 65 percent of the storage volume previously lost from August 1940 to October 1992, and was the largest recovery since October 1992 to date. Decreased city pumpage and artificial recharge during 1993-2009 and 2007-09 contributed to the recovery of storage volume in both periods, but artificial recharge's contribution was much smaller. Irrigation pumpage, because it increased during 1993-2009, did not contribute to the recovery of storage volume from October 1992 to January 2010. Recharge from excess precipitation contributed to the recovery of storage volume in both periods because precipitation averaged about 2 and 6 inches per year more than the annual long-term average of 31.52 inches during 1993-2009 and 2007-09, respectively. Sustainable yield for the Equus Beds aquifer in the study area was estimated to be about 57,000 acre-feet per year using two different methods. The sum of permitted annual irrigation (about 45,600 acre-feet) and city (about 31,400 acre-feet) pumpage of 77,000 acre-feet per year greatly exceeds the estimated sustainable yield. Effective water management, including additions to the water budget such as those from the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project, can help produce the most water for beneficial use in a more sustainable way.

Scientific Investigations Report

Social-value maps for Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests, Colorado and Wyoming

Executive Summary The continued pressures of population growth on the life-sustaining, economic, and cultural ecosystem services provided by our national forests, particularly those located near rapidly growing urban areas, present ongoing challenges to forest managers. Achieving an effective assessment of these ecosystem services includes a proper accounting of the ecological, economic, and social values attributable to them. However, assessments of ecosystem goods and services notably lack information describing the spatial distribution and relative intensity of social values—the perceived, nonmarket values derived particularly from cultural ecosystem services. A geographic information system (GIS) tool developed to fill this need, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES; http://solves.cr.usgs.gov ), now provides the capability to generate social-value maps at a range of spatial scales. This report presents some of the methods behind SolVES, procedures needed to apply the tool, the first formal map products resulting from its application at a regional scale, and a discussion of the management implications associated with this type of information. In this study, we use SolVES to identify the location and relative intensity of social values as derived from survey responses gathered from residents living in counties adjacent to Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests. The results, presented as a series of social-value maps, represent the first publicly available spatial data on social-value intensity for the southern Rocky Mountain region. Our analysis identified high-value areas for social values including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life sustaining within wilderness areas. Other values, like recreation, show high-value areas both within wilderness and throughout the general forest areas, which can be attributed to people using the forests for a diverse set of recreational activities. The economic social-value type was lower within wilderness areas, which was an expected outcome because of the restrictions inside wilderness areas that preclude resource extraction, development, and motorized or mechanized recreation. Providing spatially explicit social-value information collected from residents in counties adjacent to these national forests can assist in facilitating the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service’s Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 (16 U.S.C. 528) note and the 2012 Forest Service Planning Rule (36 CFR Part 219), which encourage public participation in planning and management. By making these maps available to the public, we hope to encourage exploration of potential uses of these data for resource management and planning.

Colorado, Wyoming

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of projected water use for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer, western and central Oklahoma

This report describes a study of the hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer in western and central Oklahoma conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The report (1) quantifies the groundwater resources of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer by developing a conceptual model, (2) summarizes the general water quality of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer groundwater by using data collected during August and September 2013, (3) evaluates the effects of estimated equal proportionate share (EPS) on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future by using numerical groundwater-flow models, and (4) evaluates the effects of present-day groundwater pumping over a 50-year period and sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage by using numerical flow models. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer is a Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace unit consisting of beds of clay, silt, sand, and fine gravel sediments unconformably overlying Tertiary-, Permian-, and Pennsylvanian-age sedimentary rocks. For groundwater-flow modeling purposes, the Canadian River was divided into Reach I, extending from the Texas border to the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), and Reach II, extending downstream from the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), to the confluence of the river with Eufaula Lake. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer spans multiple climate divisions, ranging from semiarid in the west to humid subtropical in the east. The average annual precipitation in the study area from 1896 to 2014 was 34.4 inches per year (in/yr). A hydrogeologic framework of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was developed that includes the areal and vertical extent of the aquifer and the distribution, texture variability, and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The aquifer areal extent ranged from less than 0.2 to 8.5 miles wide. The maximum aquifer thickness was 120 feet (ft), and the average aquifer thickness was 50 ft. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was calculated to be 39 feet per day, and the maximum horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated to be 100 feet per day. Recharge rates to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer were estimated by using a soil-water-balance code to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge and a water-table fluctuation method to estimate localized recharge rates. By using daily precipitation and temperature data from 39 climate stations, recharge was estimated to average 3.4 in/yr, which corresponds to 8.7 percent of precipitation as recharge for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013. The water-table fluctuation method was used at one site where continuous water-level observation data were available to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. Estimated annual recharge at that site was 9.7 in/yr during 2014. Groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was identified and quantified by a conceptual flow model for the period 1981–2013. Inflows to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer include recharge to the water table from precipitation, lateral flow from the surrounding bedrock, and flow from the Canadian River, whereas outflows include flow to the Canadian River (base-flow gain), evapotranspiration, and groundwater use. Total annual recharge inflows estimated by the soil-water-balance code were multiplied by the area of each reach and then averaged over the simulated period to produce an annual average of 28,919 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for Reach I and 82,006 acre-ft/yr for Reach II. Stream base flow to the Canadian River was estimated to be the largest outflow of groundwater from the aquifer, measured at four streamgages, along with evapotranspiration and groundwater use, which were relatively minor discharge components. Objectives for the numerical groundwater-flow models included simulating groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013 to address groundwater use and drought scenarios, including calculation of the EPS pumping rates. The EPS for the alluvial and terrace aquifers is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as the amount of fresh water that each landowner is allowed per year per acre of owned land to maintain a saturated thickness of at least 5 ft in at least 50 percent of the overlying land of the groundwater basin for a minimum of 20 years. The groundwater-flow models were calibrated to water-table altitude observations, streamgage base flows, and base-flow gain to the Canadian River. The Reach I water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 6.1 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±6.7 ft of observed measurements. The average simulated stream base-flow residual at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) was 8.8 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and 75 percent of residuals were within ±30 ft 3 /s of observed measurements. Simulated base-flow gain in Reach I was 8.8 ft 3 /s lower than estimated base-flow gain. The Reach II water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 4 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±4.3 ft of the observations. The average simulated stream base-flow residual in Reach II was between 35 and 132 ft 3 /s. The average simulated base-flow gain residual in Reach II was between 11.3 and 61.1 ft 3 /s. Several future predictive scenarios were run, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of basin scenarios, determining the effects of current groundwater use over a 50-year period into the future, and evaluating the effects of a sustained drought on water availability for both reaches. The EPS pumping rate was determined to be 1.35 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For the 40- and 50-year periods, the EPS rate was determined to be 1.34 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Storage changes decreased in tandem with simulated groundwater pumping and were minimal after the first 15 simulated years for Reach I and the first 8 simulated years for Reach II. Groundwater pumping at year 2013 rates for a period of 50 years resulted in a 0.2-percent decrease in groundwater-storage volumes in Reach I and a 0.6-percent decrease in the groundwater-storage volumes in Reach II. The small changes in storage are due to groundwater use by pumping, which composes a small percentage of the total groundwater-flow model budgets for Reaches I and II. A sustained drought scenario was used to evaluate the effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on water availability. A 10-year period was chosen where the effects of drought conditions would be simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent. In Reach I, average simulated stream base flow at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) decreased by 58 percent during the hypothetical 10-year drought compared to average simulated stream base flow during the nondrought period. In Reach II, average simulated stream base flows at the Purcell streamgage (07229200) and Calvin streamgage (07231500) decreased by 64 percent and 54 percent, respectively. In Reach I, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 30 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 1.2 ft. In Reach II, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 71 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 2.0 ft.

Oklahoma