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Changes in the prevalence of avian disease and mosquito vectors at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge: a 14-year perspective and assessment of future risk

Throughout the main Hawaiian Islands, introduced mosquito-borne disease has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on the distributions and abundance of native Hawaiian forest birds. Populations of remaining native forest birds are largely restricted to high elevation forests where mean temperatures are marginal for vector and parasite development and limited availability of larval mosquito habitat constrains mosquito populations and disease transmission. Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (HFNWR) was established for the preservation of endemic avifauna in 1985. Since its creation, native bird communities there have remained intact and most species populations are stable or increasing. However, avian malaria had been detected at HFNWR in the past and, in light of documented climate change, new concerns have been raised regarding the long-term fate of the refuge’s forest birds. To examine the possible changes in avian malaria transmission at HFNWR we sampled forest birds for blood parasites, trapped adult mosquitoes and surveyed larval mosquito habitat at three sites during 2012 and compared our results with similar data collected between 1998 and 1999. We tested blood samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunoblotting, and microscopy to determine prevalence of acute and chronic infection and used attractive gravid traps to sample the vector mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Our study documented spatial trends and temporal changes in the prevalence of avian malaria, mosquito presence, larval mosquito habitat and feral pig activity at HFNWR. We found evidence of local transmission in high elevation forests, a general pattern of increasing prevalence at lower elevations and along a South to North gradient and a two-fold decrease in the prevalence of avian malaria in the intervening 14 years. Despite considerable effort, we were unable to detect larval C. quinquefasciatus and captured only one adult indicating that the vector of avian malaria has a very limited presence at HFNWR. We did, however, document the establishment of another invasive mosquito, Aedes japonicus japonicus , and its occurrence in tree fern cavities and rock pools as larval habitat in the lower forests of HFNWR. We suggest that interspecific competition by A. j. japonicus and predation by a suite of native predators may provide biotic resistance to the establishment of permanent C. quinquefasciatus populations. While current predictions of climate change in the Hawaiian Islands include a gradual warming and enhanced transmission by mid-century, the current cooling trend recorded at high elevation HFNWR illustrates the importance of monitoring to document fine scale temporal and site specific changes in prevalence. Long term changes in precipitation may have a more profound effect on local transmission of malaria than temperature and we may have already seen some potential impacts of an extended drought at HFNWR with a decrease in feral pig activity and pig associated larval mosquito habitat and increases in stream-associated larval mosquito habitat.

Hawaii

National water summary 1986: Hydrologic events and ground-water quality

Ground water is one of the most important natural resources of the United States and degradation of its quality could have a major effect on the welfare of the Nation. Currently (1985), ground water is the source of drinking water for 53 percent of the Nation's population and for more than 97 percent of its rural population. It is the source of about 40 percent of the Nation's public water supply, 33 percent of water for irrigation, and 17 percent of freshwater for selfsupplied industries. Ground water also is the source of about 40 percent of the average annual streamflow in the United States, although during long periods of little or no precipitation, ground-water discharges provide nearly all of the base streamflow. This hydraulic connection between aquifers and streams implies that if a persistent pollutant gets into an aquifer, it eventually could discharge into a stream. Information presented in the 1986 National Water Summary clearly shows that the United States has very large amounts of potable ground water available for use. Although naturally occurring constituents, such as nitrate, and human-induced substances, such as synthetic organic chemicals, frequently are detected in ground water, their concentrations usually do not exceed existing Federal or State standards or guidelines for maximum concentrations in drinking water. Troublesome contamination of ground water falls into two basic categories related to the source or sources of the contamination. Locally, high concentrations of a variety of toxic metals, organic chemicals, and petroleum products have been detected in ground water associated with point sources such as wastedisposal sites, storage-tank leaks, and hazardous chemical spills. These types of local problems commonly occur in densely populated urban areas and industrialized areas. Larger, multicounty areas also have been identified where contamination frequently is found in shallow wells. These areas generally are associated with broad-scale, or nonpoint, sources of contamination such as agricultural activities or highdensity domestic waste disposal (septic systems) in urban centers. At present, only a very small percentage of the total volume of potable ground water in the United States is contaminated from both point and nonpoint sources; however, available data, especially data about the occurrence of synthetic organic and toxic substances, generally are inadequate to determine the full extent of ground-water contamination in the Nation's aquifers or to define trends in groundwater quality. Most information about the occurrence of these substances has come from the study of individual sites or areas where contamination had already been detected or suspected. Management and protection of ground water present a major challenge to the Nation. Current and projected costs of detection and cleanup of existing ground-water contamination are staggering and, even so, complete removal of pollutants from ground water in the vicinity of some waste sites might not be technically feasible. At all levels of government, the task of protecting the resource for its most beneficial uses is difficult and controversial. Despite increasing awareness that some of the Nation's ground water is contaminated with a variety of toxic metals, synthetic organic chemicals, radionuclides, pesticides, and other contaminants that might present a long-term risk to human health, public policy towards ground-water protection is still in the formative stages. Despite increasing efforts devoted to ground-water protection by State and Federal regulatory and resource-management agencies, the extent of ground-water contamination is likely to appear to increase over the next few years because more agencies will be searching for evidence of contamination, and they will be using increasingly sensitive analytical procedures. Increased technology and expanded monitoring activities probably will detect the effects of past contamination and land uses on water quality. The significant time lag between a waterquality change in one part of an aquifer system and the effects of that change at a downgradient site, such as a well, results from the generally slow movement of ground water. This lag between cause and observed effect needs to be considered in evaluating the effectiveness of current and future ground-water policies and remedial measures. Conclusive answers to questions about the location, extent, and severity of ground-water contamination, and about trends in ground-water quality, must await further collection and analysis of data from the Nation's aquifers. Generalizations, however, can be made, and the 1986 National Water Summary, which describes the natural quality of ground-water resources in each State and the major contamination problems that have been identified as of 1986, provides a national perspective of the ground-water-quality situation. The 1986 National Water Summary follows the format of previous volumes. It contains three parts, and the contents of each of these parts are highlighted below.

Water Supply Paper

Vegetation assessment of forests of Pagan Island, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

As part of the Marianas Expedition Wildlife Surveys-2010, the forest vegetation of the island of Pagan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), was sampled with a series of systematic plots along 13 transects established for monitoring forest bird populations. Shrubland and grassland were also sampled in the northern half of the island. Data collected were woody plant density, tree diameter at breast height, woody plant density in height classes below 2 m, and ground cover measured with the point-intercept method. Coconut forests ( Cocos nucifera ) were generally found to have low native tree diversity, little regeneration of trees and shrubs in the forest understory, and little live ground cover. The sole exception was a coconut-dominated forest of the northeast side of the island that exhibited high native tree diversity and a large number of young native trees in the understory. Ironwood ( Casuarina equisetifolia ) forests on the northern half of the island were nearly monocultures with almost no trees other than ironwood in vegetation plots, few woody plants in the understory, and low ground cover dominated by native ferns. Mixed native forests of both northern and southern sections of the island had a diversity of native tree species in both the canopy and the sparse understory. Ground cover of native forests in the north had a mix of native and alien species, but that of the southern half of the island was dominated by native ferns and woody plants. During vegetation surveys in June–July 2010, 215 vascular plant species were observed on Pagan; 21 new island records of alien plants and 12 new island records of native plants were documented. Many of the new and recently sighted alien plants of the northern section of the island appeared to be in the incipient stage of invasion. Most of the new native plant sightings and a number of other rare tree and shrub species of Pagan were limited to forests of the rugged southern half of the island.

Pagan Island

The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

Ohio

U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Land Management Cooperative Coalbed Methane Project in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Wyoming Reservoir Management Group and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a cooperative project in 1999 to collect technical and analytical data on coalbed methane (CBM) resources and quality of the water produced from coalbeds in the Wyoming part of the Powder River Basin. The agencies have complementary but divergent goals and these kinds of data are essential to accomplish their respective resource evaluation and management tasks. The project also addresses the general public need for information pertaining to Powder River Basin CBM resources and development. BLM needs, which relate primarily to the management of CBM resources, include improved gas content and gas in-place estimates for reservoir characterization and resource/reserve assessment, evaluation, and utilization. USGS goals include a basinwide assessment of CBM resources, an improved understanding of the nature and origin of coalbed gases and formation waters, and the development of predictive models for the assessment of CBM resources that can be used for such purposes in other basins in the United States (for example, the Bighorn, Greater Green River, and Williston Basins) and in other countries throughout the world (for example, Indonesia, New Zealand, and the Philippines). Samples of coal, produced water, and gas from coalbed methane drill holes throughout the Powder River Basin, many of which are adjacent to several active mine areas (figs. 1, 2), have been collected by personnel in the USGS, BLM Reservoir Management Group, and Casper and Buffalo BLM Field Offices. Sampling was done under confidentiality agreements with 29 participating CBM companies and operators. Analyses run on the samples include coal permeability, coal quality and chemistry, coal petrography and petrology, methane desorption and adsorption, produced-water chemistry, and gas composition and isotopes. The USGS has supplied results to the BLM Reservoir Management Group for their resource management needs, and data are released when the terms of the confidentiality agreements are completed and consent is obtained.

Fact Sheet

Evaluation of landslide monitoring in the Polish Carpathians

In response to the June 15, 2010 request from the Polish Geological Institute (PGI) to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for assistance and advice regarding real-time landslide monitoring, landslide specialists from the USGS Landslide Hazard Program visited PGI headquarters and field sites in September 2010. During our visit we became familiar with characteristics of landslides in the Polish Carpathians, reviewed PGI monitoring techniques, and assessed needs for monitoring at recently activated landslides. Visits to several landslides that are monitored by PGI (the Just, Hańczowa, Szymbark, Siercza and Łasńica landslides) revealed that current data collection (monthly GPS and inclinometer surveys, hourly piezometers readings) is generally sufficient for collecting basic information about landslide displacement, depth, and groundwater conditions. Large landslides are typically hydrologically complex, and we would expect such complexity in Carpathian landslides, given the alternating shale and sandstone stratigraphy and complex geologic structures of the flysch bedrock. Consequently groundwater observations could be improved by installing several piezometers that sample the basal shear zone of each landslide being monitored by PGI. These could be supplemented by additional piezometers at shallower depths to help clarify general flow directions and hydraulic gradients. Remedial works at Hańczowa make the landslide unsuitable for monitoring as part of an early warning network. Monitoring there should focus on continued performance of the remedial works. Our suggestions for new monitoring at recently activated landslides are summarized in table 1. Displacement monitoring using extensometers and (or) GPS is a high priority at Kłodne, Łaśnica, Łazki, and Siedloki. Geomorphologic mapping of active surface features (scarps, cracks, shear zones, folds, and thrusts) in sufficient detail to reveal the kinematics of each landslide would greatly help in planning subsurface exploration and monitoring. Mapping should take advantage of existing and future airborne lidar data sets of specific areas, where available. Borehole inclinometers and piezometers would complete the basic monitoring package for these landslides. The landslide at Kłodne may be well suited for more detailed monitoring for landslide process research, although research opportunities exist at the other landslides as well. The landslide near Siedloki may be a good candidate for terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Tandem streamflow gages upstream and downstream from the Siedloki landslide, or laser distance meters to monitor advancement of the toe, may be needed to provide warning of stream blockage of Potok Milowski. A real-time warning system specifically for the Łazki landslide might be considered due to potential concerns about catastrophic movement into Międzybrodzie Reservoir. Challenges associated with the establishment of a complete real-time monitoring and early warning system are far greater than just the technical and logistical aspects of installing remote monitoring systems at a large number of landslides. Long-term maintenance of a landslide monitoring network will involve considerable effort and expense as sensors break-down from exposure to weather, landslide movement, and harsh underground environmental conditions. Once PGI’s planned pilot network of 10-20 monitored landslides is operating, a period of observation and analysis will be needed to establish appropriate alert levels and criteria for issuing alerts and warnings. Simultaneously, discussions with authorities will be needed to develop action plans for responding to landslide notifications and (or) warnings. Public resistance to landslide warnings and mandated evacuations may be high given the low historical incidence of fatalities and injuries resulting from Carpathian landslides and the small potential for warnings to reduce landslide damage to homes and land. Careful weighing of purpose, advantages, and costs of a large-scale monitoring and early warning program is needed early in the planning process and should be revisited regularly throughout pilot and final implementation. In this report, we present a generic plan for monitoring of a hypothetical Carpathian landslide that illustrates how our suggestions for each of the specific landslides could be implemented. The plan includes basic pore pressure, displacement, and weather monitoring, along with supplemental monitoring for special conditions at specific landslides. Table 2 summarizes the overall approach and basic equipment and software requirements.

Open-File Report

Geohydrology and water quality of the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer, northeastern Louisiana

The Mississippi River alluvial aquifer in northeastern Louisiana is in the alluvium of the Mississippi, Arkansas, and Ouachita Rivers and underlies approximately 5,000 square miles (13,000 square kilometers) in the Mississippi River valley. The aquifer, of Pleistocene age, is a southeastward-thickening wedge of sand and gravel that ranges in thickness from about 20 to 135 feet (6 to 41 metres). These sediments are essentially flat lying with an irregular base. Fine sand, silt, and clay of Holocene age overlie and generally confine the aquifer. These fine-grained deposits range in thickness from 0 to 100 feet (0 to 30 metres) but generally do not exceed 40 feet (12 metres). Water levels in the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer generally are less than 30 feet (9 metres) below land surface. Annual water-level fluctuations have a maximum range of about 20 feet (6 metres) near the Mississippi River and a minimum range of only a few feet in interstream areas. Seasonal declines occur locally, especially in Morehouse Parish, because of large withdrawals for irrigation. The Mississippi River alluvial aquifer can yield water in sufficient quantity for most uses throughout the area. Aquifer tests indicate that the transmissivity ranges from 13,000 to 45,000 feet squared per day (1,200 to 4,200 metres squared per day). The hydraulic conductivity ranges from 130 to 530 feet per day (40 to 160 metres per day). Storage coefficients range from 0.001 to 0.05. Large diameter wells yield as much as 7,000 gallons per minute (440 litres per second) near Tallulah in Madison Parish. The quality of ground water in the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer varies areally and with depth, but generally the water is hard to very hard and high in iron concentration, Where fresh, the water typically is a calcium bicarbonate type generally ranging in hardness from 200 to 600 mg/1 (milligrams per litre) and in iron concentration from 0.00 to 30 mg/1. However, in southern Richland Parish and local areas in adjacent parishes, a hardness of less than 100 mg/1 and an iron concentration of less than 0.30 mg/1 are common. Fresh water occurs to or below the base of the alluvial aquifer in most of the area. The chloride concentration typically is less than 50 mg/1. However, chloride concentrations are as high as 4,000 mg/1 in parts of the area. At some localities, salty water (chloride concentrations greater than 250 mg/1) occurs in the aquifer at depths less than 30 feet (9 metres). The largest occurrence of salty water is in Franklin Parish near and parallel to the subsurface contact between clays of the Jackson Group and sands of the Cockfield Formation of the Claiborne Group. Thus, salty water moving from the Cockfield into the alluvium may be the source of some of the high-chloride water. Smaller bodies of salty water occur in the aquifer along the Jackson-Cockfield contact in Madison and Caldwell Parishes. Probably some contamination from pits formerly used for disposal of salty water occurs in northern Franklin and southern Richland Parishes, Other small occurrences of salty water in Concordia, Morehouse, Ouachita, and Tensas Parishes may be related to contamination by salt-water disposal pits and wells, leaky oil-well casings, and oil-well drilling mishaps.

Louisiana

Arsenic, Boron, and Fluoride Concentrations in Ground Water in and Near Diabase Intrusions, Newark Basin, Southeastern Pennsylvania

During an investigation in 2000 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) of possible contaminant releases from an industrial facility on Congo Road near Gilbertsville in Berks and Montgomery Counties, southeastern Pennsylvania, concentrations of arsenic and fluoride above USEPA drinking-water standards of 10 ?g/L and 4 mg/L, respectively, and of boron above the USEPA health advisory level of 600 ?g/L were measured in ground water in an area along the northwestern edge of the Newark Basin. In 2003, the USEPA requested technical assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to help identify sources of arsenic, boron, and fluoride in the ground water in the Congo Road area, which included possible anthropogenic releases and naturally occurring mineralization in the local bedrock aquifer, and to identify other areas in the Newark Basin of southeastern Pennsylvania with similarly elevated concentrations of these constituents. The USGS reviewed available data and collected additional ground-water samples in the Congo Road area and four similar hydrogeologic settings. The Newark Basin is the largest of the 13 major exposed Mesozoic rift basins that stretch from Nova Scotia to South Carolina. Rocks in the Newark Basin include Triassic through Jurassic-age sedimentary sequences of sandstones and shales that were intruded by diabase. Mineral deposits of hydrothermal origin are associated with alteration zones bordering intrusions of diabase and also occur as strata-bound replacement deposits of copper and zinc in sedimentary rocks. The USGS review of data available in 2003 showed that water from about 10 percent of wells throughout the Newark Basin of southeastern Pennsylvania had concentrations of arsenic greater than the USEPA maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 ?g/L; the highest reported arsenic concentration was at about 70 ?g/L. Few data on boron were available, and the highest reported boron concentration in well-water samples was 60 ?g/L in contrast to concentrations over 5,000 ?g/L in the Congo Road area. Although concentrations of fluoride up to 4 mg/L were reported for a few well-water samples collected throughout the Newark Basin, about 90 percent of the samples had concentrations of 0.5 mg/L or less. The USGS sampled 58 wells primarily in 5 areas in the Newark Basin, southeastern Pennsylvania, from February 2004 through April 2005 to identify other possible areas of elevated arsenic, boron, and fluoride and to characterize the geochemical environment associated with elevated concentrations of these constituents. Sampled wells included 12 monitor wells at an industrial facility near Congo Road, 45 private-supply wells in Berks, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties, and 1 private-supply well near Dillsburg, York County, an area where elevated fluoride in ground water had been reported in the adjacent Gettysburg Basin. Wells were sampled in transects from the diabase through the adjacent hornfels and into the unaltered shales of the Brunswick Group. Field measurements were made of pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, and specific conductance. Samples were analyzed in the laboratory for major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, dissolved and total concentrations of selected trace elements, and boron isotopic composition. Generally, the ground water from the 46 private-supply wells had relatively neutral to alkaline pH (ranging from 6.1 to 9.1) and moderate concentrations of dissolved oxygen. Most water samples were of the calcium-bicarbonate type. Concentrations of arsenic up to 60 ?g/L, boron up to 3,950 ?g/L, and fluoride up to 0.70 mg/L were measured. Drinking-water standards or health advisories (for constituents that do not have standards established) were exceeded most frequently (about 20 percent of samples) for arsenic and boron and less frequently (6 percent or less of samples) for total iron, manganese, sulfate, nitrate, lead, molybdenum, and strontium. In water from 12 monitor

Scientific Investigations Report

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin

Proceedings of the Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium

Foreword Glacier Bay was established as a National Monument in 1925, in part to protect its unique character and natural beauty, but also to create a natural laboratory to examine evolution of the glacial landscape. Today, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve is still a place of profound natural beauty and dynamic landscapes. It also remains a focal point for scientific research and includes continuing observations begun decades ago of glacial processes and terrestrial ecosystems. In recent years, research has focused on glacial-marine interactions and ecosystem processes that occur below the surface of the bay. In October 2004, Glacier Bay National Park convened the fourth in a series of science symposiums to provide an opportunity for researchers, managers, interpreters, educators, students and the general public to share knowledge about Glacier Bay. The Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium was held in Juneau, Alaska, rather than at the Park, reflecting a desire to maximize attendance and communication among a growing and diverse number of stakeholders interested in science in the park. More than 400 people attended the symposium. Participants provided 46 oral presentations and 41 posters covering a wide array of disciplines including geology, glaciology, oceanography, wildlife and fisheries biology, terrestrial and marine ecology, socio-cultural research and management issues. A panel discussion focused on the importance of connectivity in Glacier Bay research, and keynote speakers (Gary Davis and Terry Chapin) spoke of long-term monitoring and ecological processes. These proceedings include 56 papers from the symposium. A summary of the Glacier Bay Science Plan-itself a subject of a meeting during the symposium and the result of ongoing discussions between scientists and resource managers-also is provided. We hope these proceedings illustrate the diversity of completed and ongoing scientific studies, conducted within the Park. To this end, we invited all presenters to submit brief technical summaries of their work, to capture the gist of their study and its main findings without an overload of details and methodology. We also asked authors to include a few words on the management implications of their work to help bridge the gap between scientists and managers in understanding how specific research questions may translate to management practice. Papers in this volume are laid out by subject matter, from terrestrial and freshwater subjects to glacial-marine geology, to the ecology of marine animals and ending with risk assessment, human impacts and science-management considerations. In summary, we hope the proceedings will serve as a useful reference to completed and ongoing studies in Glacier Bay National Park, and thereby provide park enthusiasts, scientists, and managers with a road map of scientific progress.

Scientific Investigations Report

Maps of the Arctic Alaska boundary area as defined by the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act—Including geospatial characteristics of select marine and terrestrial features

This pamphlet presents a series of general reference maps showing relevant geospatial features of the U.S. Arctic boundary as defined by the U.S. Congress since 1984. The first generation of the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act (ARPA) boundary maps was originally formatted and published in 2009 by a private firm contracted with the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission. Recognizing the steadily increasing relevance of Arctic issues to national and global affairs that requires more functional projections and online tools, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Regional Office and the National Geospatial Technical Operations Center developed this updated series of ARPA boundary maps. Map sheet 1 shows the ARPA boundary as it relates to Alaska and marine features of the Bering Sea. Map sheet 2 shows the ARPA boundary from a circumpolar perspective. Map sheet 3 shows the national boundary of the U.S. 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone through the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, facilitating Arctic domain awareness and more consistent territorial assessments of the U.S. Arctic. Map sheet 4 shows, in poster-size detail, the ARPA boundary as it relates to terrestrial features of Arctic Alaska north of the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. Map sheet 5 shows, in poster-size detail, the ARPA boundary as it relates to marine and terrestrial features of the Aleutian Islands. These new maps collectively illustrate several value-added attributes, including updated bathymetry and shoreline refinements, demographic information, international borders and offshore territorial claims, Alaska conservation areas, Alaska land cover, Alaska terrestrial shaded relief, annual sea ice maximum extent, annual circumpolar 10-degree-Celsius isotherm, location of active volcanoes, and updated geospatial information. The static PDF-file maps offer value as standalone products but are intended for use with a potential interactive website that can be sourced by annual data updates, allowing users to access the various map layers in a dynamic up-to-date environment.

Alaska

Water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in New Mexico, fiscal year 1992

Awareness of our environment in general, and water resources in particular, has brought increased interest in and support of hydrologic data collection and research. The quantity, quality, and distribution of water are extremely important to the future well-being of New Mexico. The State's surface-water resources are minimal and highly variable due to climate and to regulation and diversion; ground-water resources are subject to development that exceeds natural recharge and to potential contamination by land use. Issues related to global climate change, disposal of hazardous wastes, toxic substances in water, water rights, and ground-water contamination are evolving areas of greater public concern. At the same time there is a continuing need for a better understanding of various hydrologic systems and processes in order to manage these limited water resources for maximum benefit to present and future generations. The U.S. Geological Survey has collected and disseminated information on the water resources of New Mexico for more than a century. The Survey began to collect records of streamflow in New Mexico in December 1888 when the first discharge measurements were made on the Rio Grande near the present gaging station at Embudo. This site, called the "birthplace of systematic stream gaging," was chosen to be the training center for the first hydrographers of the Irrigation Survey, a bureau within the original Geological Survey. Since that time, in cooperation with Federal, State, local, and tribal agencies, we have monitored streams at hundreds of sites throughout the State and have a current network of more than 200 streamflow-gaging stations. Through the Cooperative Program, we also have established sites where ground-water levels are monitored to document changes in ground-water storage or where surface-water and groundwater samples are collected to determine water chemistry, and we have undertaken investigative studies to define the availability, quality, and distribution of water resources. Information from the data program and results of investigative studies are made available to water-resources managers, regulators, and the public to be used for the effective management of the State's water resources. This report provides a brief summary of the activities of the New Mexico District for FY (fiscal year) 1992, including our mission, organization, sources of funding, and descriptions of current projects. This report serves to document not only the content of the program, but also the diversity and complexity of that program. Cooperation among water-resources agencies will be essential in effectively dealing with water-related issues facing New Mexico. We look forward to the challenge of addressing these issues by continuing to provide factual hydrologic data and technically sound areal appraisals and interpretive studies.

New Mexico

Structure of the crust and upper mantle in the western United States

Seismic waves generated by underground nuclear and chemical explosions have been recorded in a network of nearly 2,000 stations in the western conterminous United States as a part of the VELA UNIFORM program. The network extends from eastern Colorado to the California coastline and from central Idaho to the border of the United States and Mexico. The speed of compressional waves in the upper-mantle rocks ranges from 7.7 km/sec in the southern part of the Basin and Range province to 8.2 km/sec in the Great Plains province. In general, the speed of compressional waves in the upper-mantle rocks tends to be nearly the same over large areas within individual geologic provinces. Measured crustal thickness ranges from less than 20 km in the Central Valley of California to 50 km in the Great Plains province. Changes in crustal thickness across provincial boundaries are not controlled by regional altitude above sea level unless the properties of the upper mantle are the same across those boundaries. The crust tends to be thick in regions where the speed of compressional waves in the upper-mantle rocks (and presumably the density) is high, and tends to be relatively thin where the speed of compressional waves in the upper-mantle rocks (and density) is lower. With in the Basin and Range province, crustal thickness seems to vary directly with regional altitude above sea level. Evidence that a layer of intermediate compressional-wave speed exists in the lower part of the crust has been accumulated from seismic waves that have traveled least-time paths, as well as secondary arrivals (particularly reflections). On a scale that includes many geologic provinces, isostatic compensation is related largely to variations in the density of the upper- mantle rocks. Within geologic provinces or adjacent provinces, isostatic compensation may be related to variations in the thickness of crustal layers. Regions of thick crust and dense upper mantle have been relatively stable in Cenozoic time. Regions of thinner crust and low-density upper mantle have had a Cenozoic history of intense diastrophism and silicic volcanism.

Crustal Studies Technical Letter

Status and trends of forest bird populations at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, 1987–2024

Since 1985, the Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (hereafter, Hakalau) has protected the largest endemic forest bird diversity in the State of Hawaii. This includes three endangered and one threatened species and their habitats. Hakalau’s vast area (155 km2), mostly high elevation (>1500 m) montane forest, provides refuge from avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) vectored by introduced southern house mosquitoes (Culex quinquefasciatus). However, increases in the seasonal temperatures optimal for disease carrying mosquitoes associated with climate change have coincided with recent downward trends of native species in the closed forest area of the refuge (1450–1750 m), where disease is most likely to occur. Therefore, to inform refuge management with the most updated information on these populations and their trends, we analyzed forest bird survey data collected using point transect distance sampling with new survey data from 2021–2024. We stratified our analysis across management units, including the open forest and pasture since 1987, and the closed forest since 1999, and across four elevation ranges (<1500, 1500–1700, 1700–1900, and >1900 m) since 1999. We used distance sampling to estimate species- and strata-specific abundances and applied log-linear regression to detect trends across the timeseries. We found a continuation of previous trends, wherein most native forest birds declined in the closed forest strata (mostly below 1700 m) and increased in the highest elevation and pasture strata. Patterns were highly species-specific for the three lower elevations and open forest strata. ‘Apapane (Himatione sanguinea) and warbling white-eye (Zosterops japonicus), the most abundant native and introduced bird species, respectively, increased in nearly all strata. ‘I‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea) and Hawai‘i ‘amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens virens), also common, decreased in closed forest, were stable in open forest, and increased in pasture. Both species were generally stable or increasing across all elevation bands, except Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi decreased in the below 1500 m and the 1500–1700 m elevation bands. All three of the federally endangered forest bird species declined in closed forest. Hawai‘i ‘ākepa (Loxops coccineus) also declined in the open forest and 1700–1900 m band and was the only species to decline overall. ‘Akiapōlā‘au (Hemignathus wilsoni) declined in closed forest but increased overall. ‘Alawī (Loxops mana, also known as Hawai‘i creeper) also decreased in the closed forest, but was stable to increasing in most strata and remained stable overall. Hawaiʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis) declined in closed forest, was stable in open forest and most elevation strata, and increased in pasture. ʻŌmaʻo (Myadestes obscurus) was stable in open and closed forest and at middle elevations and increased in the pasture. Introduced red-billedleiothrix (Leiothrix lutea) declined in closed forest, was stable in the open forest and at most elevations, and increased in the pasture. Coinciding with these changes, seasonal conditions for vector occurrence have continued to lengthen in the lower elevation strata through 2024, while Hakalau’s outplanting efforts continued to increase forest cover in the pasture, suggesting that disease-free habitat may have decreased in the closed forest and increased in the pasture. The declines in the closed forest and mixture of trends in the open forest and middle elevations bands suggest emigration into the higher elevation strata from lower elevation strata, and that possible threats have suppressed forest birds even at elevations >1500 m.

Hawaii

Coral disease and health workshop: Coral histopathology II, July 12-14, 2005

The health and continued existence of coral reef ecosystems are threatened by an increasing array of environmental and anthropogenic impacts. Coral disease is one of the prominent causes of increased mortality among reefs globally, particularly in the Caribbean. Although over 40 different coral diseases and syndromes have been reported worldwide, only a few etiological agents have been confirmed; most pathogens remain unknown and the dynamics of disease transmission, pathogenicity and mortality are not understood. Causal relationships have been documented for only a few of the coral diseases, while new syndromes continue to emerge. Extensive field observations by coral biologists have provided substantial documentation of a plethora of new pathologies, but our understanding, however, has been limited to descriptions of gross lesions with names reflecting these observations (e.g., black band, white band, dark spot). To determine etiology, we must equip coral diseases scientists with basic biomedical knowledge and specialized training in areas such as histology, cell biology and pathology. Only through combining descriptive science with mechanistic science and employing the synthesis epizootiology provides will we be able to gain insight into causation and become equipped to handle the pending crisis. One of the critical challenges faced by coral disease researchers is to establish a framework to systematically study coral pathologies drawing from the field of diagnostic medicine and pathology and using generally accepted nomenclature. This process began in April 2004, with a workshop titled Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Developing Diagnostic Criteria co-convened by the Coral Disease and Health Consortium (CDHC), a working group organized under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, and the International Registry for Coral Pathology (IRCP). The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) in Madison, Wisconsin and was focused on gross morphology and disease signs observed in the field. A resounding recommendation from the histopathologists participating in the workshop was the urgent need to develop diagnostic criteria that are suitable to move from gross observations to morphological diagnoses based on evaluation of microscopic anatomy. As a continuation of building the foundation and framework for coral disease diagnostics, the CDHC convened the Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Coral Histopathology II in Charleston, South Carolina, July 11-14, 2005. The workshop was hosted by the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC which provided expertise, facilities and equipment in support of the workshop. All of the histological slides and related photographs used in the discussions were prepared and supplied by the IRCP. This workshop brought together 15 experts in veterinary and medical pathology and coral biology from national and international research institutes and government laboratories. The mission was to devise a standardized approach to examining microscopic anatomy and pathology of corals and a standardized nomenclature to facilitate accurate descriptions of the microscopic morphology of corals and enhance communication among specialists investigating causes of coral death. 2 The participants of this workshop deliberated for 3 days to refine the nomenclature for gross and microscopic anatomy of corals and systematically described microscopic changes associated with selected coral diseases. The findings and recommendations from the deliberations will be submitted to the research community for peer review. The standardized nomenclature and descriptions produced at this workshop will ultimately be made available to the scientific community through a variety of media including the World Wide Web. An exciting highlight of this meeting was provided by Professor Robert Ogilvie (MUSC Department of Cell Biology and Anatomy) when he introduced participants to a new digital technology that is revolutionizing histology and histopathology in the medical field. The Virtual Slide technology creates digital images of histological tissue sections by computer scanning actual slides in high definition and storing the images for retrieval and viewing. Virtual slides now allow any investigator with access to a computer and the web to view, search, annotate and comment on the same tissue sections in real time. Medical and veterinary slide libraries across the country are being converted into virtual slides to enhance biomedical education, research and diagnosis. The coral health and disease researchers at this workshop deem virtual slides as a significant way to increase capabilities in coral histology and a means for pathology consultations on coral disease cases on a global scale.

NOAA Technical Memorandum

Statistical Approaches to Interpretation of Local, Regional, and National Highway-Runoff and Urban-Stormwater Data

Decision makers need viable methods for the interpretation of local, regional, and national-highway runoff and urban-stormwater data including flows, concentrations and loads of chemical constituents and sediment, potential effects on receiving waters, and the potential effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs). Valid (useful for intended purposes), current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models are needed to interpret data collected in field studies, to support existing highway and urban-runoffplanning processes, to meet National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) requirements, and to provide methods for computation of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) systematically and economically. Historically, conceptual, simulation, empirical, and statistical models of varying levels of detail, complexity, and uncertainty have been used to meet various data-quality objectives in the decision-making processes necessary for the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways and for other land-use applications. Water-quality simulation models attempt a detailed representation of the physical processes and mechanisms at a given site. Empirical and statistical regional water-quality assessment models provide a more general picture of water quality or changes in water quality over a region. All these modeling techniques share one common aspect-their predictive ability is poor without suitable site-specific data for calibration. To properly apply the correct model, one must understand the classification of variables, the unique characteristics of water-resources data, and the concept of population structure and analysis. Classifying variables being used to analyze data may determine which statistical methods are appropriate for data analysis. An understanding of the characteristics of water-resources data is necessary to evaluate the applicability of different statistical methods, to interpret the results of these techniques, and to use tools and techniques that account for the unique nature of water-resources data sets. Populations of data on stormwater-runoff quantity and quality are often best modeled as logarithmic transformations. Therefore, these factors need to be considered to form valid, current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models. Regression analysis is an accepted method for interpretation of water-resources data and for prediction of current or future conditions at sites that fit the input data model. Regression analysis is designed to provide an estimate of the average response of a system as it relates to variation in one or more known variables. To produce valid models, however, regression analysis should include visual analysis of scatterplots, an examination of the regression equation, evaluation of the method design assumptions, and regression diagnostics. A number of statistical techniques are described in the text and in the appendixes to provide information necessary to interpret data by use of appropriate methods. Uncertainty is an important part of any decisionmaking process. In order to deal with uncertainty problems, the analyst needs to know the severity of the statistical uncertainty of the methods used to predict water quality. Statistical models need to be based on information that is meaningful, representative, complete, precise, accurate, and comparable to be deemed valid, up to date, and technically supportable. To assess uncertainty in the analytical tools, the modeling methods, and the underlying data set, all of these components need be documented and communicated in an accessible format within project publications.

Open-File Report

Geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources: Oligocene Frio and Anahuac Formations, United States Gulf of Mexico coastal plain and State waters

The Oligocene Frio and Anahuac Formations were assessed as part of the 2007 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment of Tertiary strata of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Basin onshore and State waters. The Frio Formation, which consists of sand-rich fluvio-deltaic systems, has been one of the largest hydrocarbon producers from the Paleogene in the Gulf of Mexico. The Anahuac Formation, an extensive transgressive marine shale overlying the Frio Formation, contains deltaic and slope sandstones in Louisiana and Texas and carbonate rocks in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In downdip areas of the Frio and Anahuac Formations, traps associated with faulted, rollover anticlines are common. Structural traps commonly occur in combination with stratigraphic traps. Faulted salt domes in the Frio and Anahuac Formations are present in the Houston embayment of Texas and in south Louisiana. In the Frio Formation, stratigraphic traps are found in fluvial, deltaic, barrier-bar, shelf, and strandplain systems. The USGS Tertiary Assessment Team defined a single, Upper Jurassic-Cretaceous-Tertiary Composite Total Petroleum System (TPS) for the Gulf Coast basin, based on previous studies and geochemical analysis of oils in the Gulf Coast basin. The primary source rocks for oil and gas within Cenozoic petroleum systems, including Frio Formation reservoirs, in the northern, onshore Gulf Coastal region consist of coal and shale rich in organic matter within the Wilcox Group (Paleocene–Eocene), with some contributions from the Sparta Sand of the Claiborne Group (Eocene). The Jurassic Smackover Formation and Cretaceous Eagle Ford Formation also may have contributed substantial petroleum to Cenozoic reservoirs. Modeling studies of thermal maturity by the USGS Tertiary Assessment Team indicate that downdip portions of the basal Wilcox Group reached sufficient thermal maturity to generate hydrocarbons by early Eocene; this early maturation is the result of rapid sediment accumulation in the early Tertiary, combined with the reaction kinetic parameters used in the models. A number of studies indicate that the migration of oil and gas in the Cenozoic Gulf of Mexico basin is primarily vertical, occurring along abundant growth faults associated with sediment deposition or along faults associated with salt domes. The USGS Tertiary assessment team developed a geologic model based on recurring regional-scale structural and depositional features in Paleogene strata to define assessment units (AUs). Three general areas, as described in the model, are found in each of the Paleogene stratigraphic intervals assessed: “Stable Shelf,” “Expanded Fault,” and “Slope and Basin Floor” zones. On the basis of this model, three AUs for the Frio Formation were defined: (1) the Frio Stable Shelf Oil and Gas AU, containing reservoirs with a mean depth of about 4,800 feet in normally pressured intervals; (2) the Frio Expanded Fault Zone Oil and Gas AU, containing reservoirs with a mean depth of about 9,000 feet in primarily overpressured intervals; and (3) the Frio Slope and Basin Floor Gas AU, which currently has no production but has potential for deep gas resources (>15,000 feet). AUs also were defined for the Hackberry trend, which consists of a slope facies stratigraphically in the middle part of the Frio Formation, and the Anahuac Formation. The Frio Basin Margin AU, an assessment unit extending to the outcrop of the Frio (or basal Miocene), was not quantitatively assessed because of its low potential for production. Two proprietary, commercially available databases containing field and well production information were used in the assessment. Estimates of undiscovered resources for the five AUs were based on a total of 1,734 reservoirs and 586,500 wells producing from the Frio and Anahuac Formations. Estimated total mean values of technically recoverable, undiscovered resources are 172 million barrels of oil (MMBO), 9.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (TCFG), and 542 million barrels of natural gas liquids for all of the Frio and Anahuac AUs. Of the five units assessed, the Frio Slope and Basin Floor Gas AU has the greatest potential for undiscovered gas resources, having an estimated mean of 5.6 TCFG. The Hackberry Oil and Gas AU shows the second highest potential for gas of the five units assessed, having an estimated mean of 1.8 TCFG. The largest undiscovered, conventional crude oil resource was estimated for the Frio Slope and Basin Floor Gas AU; the estimated mean for oil in this AU is 110 MMBO.

Louisiana;Texas

Structural plays in Ellesmerian sequence and correlative strata of the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

Reservoirs in deformed rocks of the Ellesmerian sequence in southern NPRA are assigned to two hydrocarbon plays, the Thrust-Belt play and the Ellesmerian Structural play. The two plays differ in that the Thrust-Belt play consists of reservoirs located in allochthonous strata in the frontal part of the Brooks Range fold-and-thrust belt, whereas those of the Ellesmerian Structural play are located in autochthonous or parautochthonous strata at deeper structural levels north of the Thrust-Belt play. Together, these structural plays are expected to contain about 3.5 TCF of gas but less than 6 million barrels of oil. These two plays are analyzed using a two-stage deformational model. The first stage of deformation occurred during the Neocomian, when distal strata of the Ellesmerian sequence were imbricated and assembled into deformational wedges emplaced northward onto regionally south-dipping authochon at 140-120 Ma. In the mid-Cretaceous following cessation of the deformation, the Colville basin, the foreland basin to the orogen, was filled with a thick clastic succession. During the second stage of deformation at about 60 Ma (early Tertiary), the combined older orogenic belt-foreland basin system was involved in another episode of north-vergent contractional deformation that deformed pre-existing stratigraphic and structurally trapped reservoir units, formed new structural traps, and caused significant amounts of uplift, although the amount of shortening was relatively small in comparison to the first episode of deformation. Hydrocarbon generation from source strata (Shublik Formation, Kingak Shale, and Otuk Formation) and migration into stratigraphic traps occurred primarily by sedimentary burial principally between 100-90 Ma, between the times of the two episodes of deformation. Subsequent burial caused deep stratigraphic traps to become overmature, cracking oil to gas, and some new generation to begin progressively higher in the section. Structural disruption of the traps in the Early Tertiary is hypothesized to have released sequestered hydrocarbons and caused remigration into newly formed structural traps formed at higher structural levels. Because of the generally high maturation of the Colville basin at the time of the deformation and remigration, most of the hydrocarbons available to fill traps were gas. In the the Thrust-Belt play, the primary reservoir lithology is expected to be dolomitic carbonate rocks of the Lisburne Group, which contain up to 15% porosity. Antiformal stacks of imbricated Lisburne Group strata form the primary trapping configuration, with chert and shale of the overlying Etivluk Group forming seals on closures. Traps are expected to have been charged primarily with remigrated gas, but oil generated from local sources in the Otuk Formation may have filled some traps at high structural levels. The timing for migration of gas into traps is excellent, but only moderate for oil because peak oil generation for the play as a whole occurred 30 to 40 m.y. before trap formation. Reservoir and seal quality in the play are questionable, reducing the likelyhood of hydrocarbon accumulations being present in the play. Our analysis suggests that the play will hold 5.7 million barrels of technically recoverable oil and 1.5 TCF gas (mean values). In the Ellesmerian Stuctural play, the primary reservoir lithologies will be dolomitic carbonate rocks of the Lisburne Group and, less likely, clastic units in the Ellesmerian sequence. Traps in the play are anticlinal closures caused by small amounts of strain in the footwall below the basal detachment for most early Tertiary thrusting. Because these traps lie beneath the main source rock units (Shublik, Kingak, lower Brookian sequence), reservoirs that are juxtaposed by faulting against source-rock units are expected to have the most favorable migration pathways. The charge will be primarily remigrated gas; no oil is expected because of the great depths (15,000 to 26,000 ft) and consequent high thermal maturity of this play. Although the the probability of charge and timeliness of trap formation and gas remigration are excellent, seal and reservoir qualities are anticipated to be poor. Our analysis suggests that about 2.0 TCF of techncially recoverable gas can be expected in the play.

Alaska