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The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow ecology: Actions towards recovery through landscape-scale ecosystem restoration

Understanding the ecology of endangered taxa and the factors affecting their population growth and decline is imperative for their recovery. In the southeastern USA, the Everglades wetland ecosystem supports a high diversity of species and communities, including many endemic and imperiled taxa, such as the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow Ammospiza maritima mirabilis (CSSS). The Everglades, once a completely connected wetland with a slow-moving sheet flow of water, is now compartmentalized into separated wetland units where water distribution is managed year-round. The CSSS is affected by, and at the crux of, many Everglades ecosystem restoration decisions. The CSSS faces conservation challenges, including limited habitat availability, low population numbers, dispersal limitations, and constraints on suitable breeding conditions owing to wetland water levels. Despite these challenges, ecological knowledge of the factors affecting CSSS population numbers in the context of ongoing ecosystem-level restoration can help inform protection of this bird while restoring the Everglades. Existing research shows target hydroperiods between 90 and 210 days, a minimum of 90 consecutive dry days during the breeding season, and non-breeding season fires approximately every 5-10 years may aid in CSSS recovery. There are numerous tools and models to support habitat and water management for the CSSS, and the most recent ecosystem-level water operations plan for the Everglades indicates potential for increased CSSS habitat. Here, we provide a review on the ecology of the CSSS, factors affecting population decline, and ecosystem-level restoration actions that may aid in CSSS recovery.

Dlorida↗

Seabirds as indicators of marine ecosystems: Introduction: A modern role for seabirds as indicators

A key requirement for implementing ecosystem-based management is to obtain timely information on significant fluctuations in the ecosystem (Botsford et al. 1997). However, obtaining all necessary information about physical and biological changes at appropriate temporal and spatial scales is a daunting task. Intuitively, one might assume that physical data are more important for the interpretation of ecosystem changes than biological data, but analyses of time series data suggest otherwise: physical data are more erratic and often confusing over the short term compared to biological data, which tend to fluctuate less on annual time scales (Hare & Mantua 2000). Even so, biological time-series may also be confusing when coexisting marine species respond differently to ecosystem variability. For example, while warming temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska following the 1976 to 1977 regime shift favored an increase in gadoids and flatfish, a variety of forage fish and pandalid shrimp species virtually disappeared (Anderson & Piatt 1999). Zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Alaska also demonstrated similar patterns of response (Francis et al. 1998). At the basin scale, favorable conditions for salmon in Alaska following the regime shift were matched inversely by poor conditions in the California Current (Francis et al. 1998). In marine birds, subtropical species increased, while subarctic ones decreased during a warming phase in the southern California Bight. Clearly, no single index can tell the whole story accurately. Multi-species, multi-region, and multi-trophic level approaches are needed to quantify fluctuations in marine ecosystem processes and in the distribution and abundance of its inhabitants, to determine critical parameter thresholds and to use this information in management and marine conservation.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

Advancing ecosystem recovery with diverse species plantings in tropical forest restoration

Tropical forest restoration has increased in the past decades, with possible advancements given the UN declaration of the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration”. However, robust assessments to compare ecosystem functions among restored forest stages are essential. We evaluated 13 actively restored forest stands ranging from 3 to 21 years of age and compared measures of forest biodiversity, structure, and ecosystem function to four 70+ year old “reference” stands that serve as restoration “targets” in the study region of the Premontane wet forest of Costa Rica. The restored stands were planted with an average of 13 tree species on abandoned pastures that were fallow for at least two years. Sixteen tree-stand attributes and six ecosystem function estimates were assessed, including: annual biomass (C) accumulation, N-fixation potential, threatened species conservation, and the provision of avian frugivore forage, insect habitat, and insect pollination. Using Principal Component Analysis, linear modeling, and Mahalanobis distance analyses, we learned that planting a diversity of tree species sets the stage for forest recovery at early restoration ages, with an inflection point at 15 years towards older reference forest characteristics and functions. Given that all restoration ages provided tree diversity and some level of ecosystem functions, the value of all restored stands in the landscape is notable. The assessment methods are easily employed, thereby providing an accessible tool to restoration practitioners.

Monteverde↗

Mangrove microbiomes as drivers of ecosystem recovery and restoration success

The microbes found in the rhizosphere, roots, leaves and stem surfaces and within the internal tissues of mangrove vegetation and their environment constitute the microbiome of the ecosystem. The organisms in the microbiome include bacteria, protozoa, fungi, algae, amoebas, and slime molds, which assist in maintaining and restoring mangrove ecosystems. This review explores the role of microbiomes in the maintenance of healthy mangrove ecosystems and in the successful restoration of degraded mangrove ecosystems. Microbes have important roles in several geomicrobiological cycles shaping mangrove ecosystems, including transforming nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, sulfur and iron in biogeochemical cycles. Mangrove microbiomes contribute to the adaptation of vegetation to the harsh abiotic conditions in coastal areas, enhance nutrient uptake, produce plant-growth-promoting substances, and degrade the mangrove litter and the pollutants that can hinder restoration. Soil microbes function as biofertilizers, biopesticides, and bioremediation agents. The microbial diversity, composition, and functional capacity are important in the restoration of mangroves through their influence on voluntary recruitment following hydrologic restoration, on the establishment success of planted seeds and propagules, and on the survival of transplanted saplings and nursery-raised seedlings. The knowledge of the beneficial attributes of the microbiome can enhance the overall success of mangrove restoration. Identifying future needs, such as microbial inoculant validation, field-scale trials, and integration with hydrological restoration, are essential.

Microorganisms↗

On connecting hydro-social parameters to vegetation greenness differences in an evolving groundwater-dependent ecosystem

Understanding groundwater-dependent ecosystems (i.e., areas with a relatively shallow water table that plays a major role in supporting vegetation health) is key to sustaining water resources in the western United States. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) in Colorado have non-pristine temporal and spatial patterns, compared to agro-ecosystems, which make it difficult to quantify how these ecosystems are impacted by changes in water availability. The goal of this study is to examine how key hydrosocial parameters perturb GDE water use in time and in space. The temporal approach tests for the additive impacts of precipitation, surface water discharge, surface water mass balance as a surrogate for surface–groundwater exchange, and groundwater depth on the monthly Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatial approach tests for the additive impacts of river confluences, canal augmentation, development, perennial tributary confluences, and farmland modification on temporally integrated NDVI. Model results show a temporal trend (monthly, 1984–2019) is identifiable along segments of the Arkansas River at resolutions finer than 10 km. The temporal impacts of river discharge correlate with riparian water use sooner in time compared to precipitation, but this result is spatially variable and dependent on the covariates tested. Spatially, areal segments of the Arkansas River that have confluences with perennial streams have increased cumulative vegetation density. Quantifying temporal and spatial dependencies between the sources and effects of GDEs could aid in preventing the loss of a vulnerable ecosystem to increased water demand, changing climate, and evolving irrigation methodologies.

Colorado↗

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

California↗

Assessing conservation and management actions with ecosystem services better communicates conservation value to the public

Fish and wildlife populations are under unprecedented threats from changes in land use and climate. With increasing threats comes a need for an expanded constituency that can contribute to the public support and financial capital needed for habitat conservation and management. Using an ecosystem services approach can provide a framework for a more holistic accounting of conservation benefits. Our objective here is to provide a greater understanding of the role that taking an ecosystem services approach can have in expanding the public constituency that supports the use of financial capital required to conserve and manage the nation’s natural capital. To demonstrate a methodology and the usefulness of taking an ecosystem services approach when communicating the value of conserving and managing fish and wildlife habitats, we performed an evaluation of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned Waterfowl Production Areas, National Wildlife Refuges, and easement lands (both wetland and grassland) in Stutsman County, North Dakota. We quantified amphibian habitat, grassland bird habitat, floral resources for pollinators, and carbon storage services under various scenarios of conservation. While we did not include all possible ecosystem services in our model, our case study shows how this process can provide a more complete picture of the collateral benefits of conservation directed primarily toward waterfowl. Using this ecosystem services approach, we documented marked losses in all services modeled if current conservation lands were developed for the production of agricultural crops. By having access to a more complete picture of benefits provided by conservation lands, decision makers can better communicate their value. By garnering greater public support through a more accurate accounting of societal benefits, conservation and management of dwindling natural capital may someday attain the same level of thought and consideration that is put into the conservation and management of the nation’s financial capital.

North Dakota↗

Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

Limnology and Oceanography: Methods↗

Impacts of climate changes and amplified natural disturbance on global ecosystems

Natural disturbances maintain biological diversity and landscape heterogeneity and initiate ecosystem renewal and reorganization. However, the severity, frequency, and extent of many disturbances have increased substantially in recent decades as the result of anthropogenic climate change. Disturbances can be discrete, short-duration events, such as wildfires or hurricanes, or can exert persistent, cumulative stresses on an ecosystem (for example, ongoing warming of ocean or land surface temperatures). Landscape and ecosystem impacts can occur from a single disturbance, from several disturbances acting independently, or from the interactions of multiple, linked disturbances. Key, climate-related disturbances affecting global biomes and ecosystems include shifting temperature and hydrologic regimes (for example, warming surface temperatures and increasing aridity), increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as heatwaves, severe droughts, storms, and hurricanes, warming-induced permafrost thaw, and heightened wildfire activity and insect-caused tree mortality. For ecosystems and landscapes, the consequences of climate-amplified disturbance include forced poleward and upward movement of plant and animal species, widespread tree mortality and reduced forest productivity, changes in plant community structure and species distributions, reduced biodiversity, increased erosion, debris flows, wetland dynamism, declining sea ice extent, more frequent storm-driven tides and saltwater intrusion, and increased landscape flammability.

Book chapter↗

FLUXNET-CH4: A global, multi-ecosystem database and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH 4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH 4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH 4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH 4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH 4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ , last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH 4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH 4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH 4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH 4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH 4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20 ∘ S to 20 ∘ N) the spring onset of elevated CH 4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH 4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH 4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH 4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH 4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH 4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH 4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH 4 peak). FLUXNET-CH 4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH 4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH 4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

Earth System Science Data↗

Spatiotemporal variability of light attenuation and net ecosystem metabolism in a back-barrier estuary

Quantifying system-wide biogeochemical dynamics and ecosystem metabolism in estuaries is often attempted using a long-term continuous record at a single site or short-term records at multiple sites due to sampling limitations that preclude long-term monitoring. However, differences in the dominant primary producer at a given location (e.g., phytoplankton versus benthic producers) control diel variations in dissolved oxygen and associated ecosystem metabolism, and they may confound metabolic estimates that do not account for this variability. We hypothesize that even in shallow, well-mixed estuaries there is strong spatiotemporal variability in ecosystem metabolism due to benthic and water-column properties, as well as ensuing feedbacks to sediment resuspension, light attenuation, and primary production. We tested this hypothesis by measuring hydrodynamic properties, biogeochemical variables (fluorescent dissolved organic matter – fDOM, turbidity, chlorophyll a fluorescence, dissolved oxygen), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) over 1 year at 15 min intervals at paired channel (unvegetated) and shoal (vegetated by eelgrass) sites in Chincoteague Bay, Maryland–Virginia, USA, a shallow back-barrier estuary. Light attenuation ( K dPAR ) at all sites was dominated by turbidity from suspended sediment, with lower contributions from fDOM and chlorophyll a . However, there was significant seasonal variability in the resuspension–shear stress relationship on the vegetated shoals, but not in adjacent unvegetated channels. This indicated that K dPAR on the shoals was mediated by submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and possibly microphytobenthos presence in the summer, which reduced resuspension and therefore K dPAR . We also found that gross primary production ( P g ) and K dPAR were significantly negatively correlated on the shoals and uncorrelated in the channels, indicating that P g over the vegetated shoals is controlled by a feedback loop between benthic stabilization by SAV and/or microphytobenthos, sediment resuspension, and light availability. Metabolic estimates indicated substantial differences in net ecosystem metabolism between vegetated and unvegetated sites, with the former tending towards net autotrophy in the summer. Ongoing trends of SAV loss in this and other back-barrier estuaries suggest that these systems may also shift towards net heterotrophy, reducing their effectiveness as long-term carbon sinks. With regards to temporal variability, we found that varying sampling frequency between 15 min and 1 d resulted in comparable mean values of biogeochemical variables, but extreme values were missed by daily sampling. In fact, daily resampling minimized the variability between sites and falsely suggested spatial homogeneity in biogeochemistry, emphasizing the need for high-frequency sampling. This study confirms that properly quantifying ecosystem metabolism and associated biogeochemical variability requires characterization of the diverse estuarine environments, even in well-mixed systems, and demonstrates the deficiencies introduced by infrequent sampling to the interpretation of spatial variability.

Maryland, Virginia↗

The roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems: new insights from long term ecological research

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

Florida;Georgia;Massachusetts↗

Ecosystem-level consequences of migratory faunal depletion caused by dams

Humans have been damming rivers for millennia, and our more ambitious efforts over the past century have arguably altered river ecosystems more extensively than any other anthropogenic activity. Effects of damming on river biota include decimation of migratory fauna (e.g., diadromous and potamodromous fishes and crustaceans), lost fisheries, and imperilment of obligate riverine taxa. Although effects of dams on biota have been widely documented, ecosystem-level consequences of faunal depletion caused by dams are only beginning to be appreciated. We discuss consequences to river ecosystems of altering distributions and abundances of migratory fauna, which often provide trophic subsidies and may strongly influence the structure of local habitats and communities. It is well documented that anadromous fishes can provide a major input of nutrients and energy to freshwater systems when spawning adults return from the sea. Other less-studied taxa that migrate between distinct portions of riverine systems (e.g., acipencerids, catostomids, and prochilodontids) may similarly provide trophic transfers within undammed river systems, in addition to modifying local communities and habitats through feeding and spawning activities. Experimental faunal exclusions have demonstrated strong potential effects of some amphidromous shrimps and potamodromous fishes on benthic organic matter and algal and invertebrate communities. Depletion of these animals above dams is likely to significantly affect ecosystem processes such as primary production and detrital processing. The decline of freshwater mussels isolated by dams from their migratory fish hosts has likely lowered stream productivity, nutrient retention and benthic stability. Greater focus on effects of dams on ecosystem processes, as mediated by faunal change, would improve our ability to assess the costs and benefits of future river management strategies.

Book chapter↗

Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research.

Hydrological Processes↗

Preventing, controlling, and managing alien species introduction for the health of aquatic and marine ecosystems

The introduction and spread of invasive species is an emerging global problem. As economic and ecological impacts continue to grow, there will be an increasing need to develop innovative solutions and global partnerships to combat the increasing rate of invasions and their accompanying impacts. Threats to sustainable fisheries in North America associated with alien species come from many global directions and sources and can be deliberate or the unintended consequence of other actions. Decisions about the role of sustainable fisheries in protecting and restoring the health of aquatic ecosystems become even more complex when economic and social factors are considered along with environmental impacts, because many intentionally introduced species also have associated economic and community costs and benefits. Actions designed to prevent or control alien species in an aquatic ecosystem are often complicated by these nonenvironmental factors as well as public perception and opinion. Aquatic ecosystems are disturbed to varying degrees by alien species, including disease organisms. Prevention is the first and best line of defense. Determining likely pathways and effective countermeasures is more cost-effective than either eradication or control. Our ability to quickly identify new species and their associated risk to ecosystems is critical in designing and implementing effective control and management actions. Lack of infrastructure and necessary resources, clear-cut authority for regulation and action, and scientific information about the biology of alien species and effective control techniques are often limiting factors that prevent the needed action to protect aquatic ecosystems.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services

Ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases. Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order). Supporting services are more likely to be "taken for granted." Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society as more important - provisioning and regulating ecosystem services - and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful strategies will recognize the inherent complexities of ecosystem management and will work to develop policies that minimize the effects of ES trade-offs. Copyright ?? 2006 by the author(s).

Ecology and Society↗

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗