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USGS2012

Potential population-level effects of increased haulout-related mortality of Pacific walrus calves

Availability of summer sea ice has been decreasing in the Chukchi Sea during recent decades, and increasing numbers of Pacific walruses have begun using coastal haulouts in late summer during years when sea ice retreats beyond the continental shelf. Calves and yearlings are particularly susceptible to being crushed during disturbance events that cause the herd to panic and stampede at these large haulouts, but the potential population-level effects of this mortality are unknown. We used recent harvest data, along with previous assumptions about demographic parameters for this population, to estimate female population size and structure in 2009 and project these numbers forward using a range of assumptions about future harvests and haulout-related mortality that might result from increased use of coastal haulouts during late summer. We found that if demographic parameters were held constant, the levels of harvest that occurred during 1990–2008 would have allowed the population to grow during that period. Our projections indicate, however, that an increase in haulout-related mortality affecting only calves has a greater effect on the population than an equivalent increase in harvest-related mortality distributed among all age classes. Therefore, disturbance-related mortality of calves at coastal haulouts may have relatively important population consequences.

Polar Biology↗

USGS1976

Digital-simulation model of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel Aquifer in the coastal plain of New Jersey

A digital computer-simulation model of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer is used to evaluate the aquifer's capabilities of meeting the projected future demands and to study the cause of the rapidly declining water levels. The modelled area includes 1,500 square miles (3,885 square kilometres) of the New Jersey Coastal Plain and includes all the important centers of pumping in Monmouth, Burlington, and Ocean Counties from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer. The Wenonah Formation and Mount Laurel Sand of Late Cretaceous age are exposed in the western part of the New Jersey Coastal Plain along a belt trending northeast-southwest from Raritan Bay to Delaware Bay. The formations typically consist of poorly sorted silty to fine quartz sand, the Wenonah Formation, and a coarse clastic quartz sand unit, the Mount Laurel Sand. The Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer is composed of the sandy part of the geologic units. Transmissivity of the aquifer ranges from 360 square feet per day (33.4 square metres per day) to 1,430 square feet per day (132.8 square metres per day); the estimated hydraulic conductivity ranges from about 1.5 x 10 -4 feet per second (4.6 x 10 -5 metres per second) to 2.2 x 10 -4 feet per second (6.7 x 10 -5 metres per second); and the storage coefficient varies from about 1.5 x 10 -5 to 3.5 x 10 -4 . The annual average rate of withdrawal from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in Monmouth, Burlington, and Ocean Counties increased from about 1 million gallons per day (44 cubic decimetres per second) in 1959 to slightly more than 2 million gallons per day (88 cubic decimetres per second) in 1970. Near the pumping centers in Monmouth County, the water level declined as much as 100 feet (30.5 metres) between 1959 and 1970. In the subjacent Englishtown aquifer underlying the lower confining unit (Marshalltown Formation), the annual average rate of withdrawal in all of Monmouth and Ocean Counties increased from 5.5 million gallons per day (241 cubic decimetres per second) in 1959 to 9.5 million gallons per day (416 cubic decimetres per second) in 1970. Water-level declines for the same period are as much as 140 feet (42.7 metres) near centers of pumping. The digital-simulation model was calibrated by matching computed declines in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer with historic water-level declines over the 12-year period, 1959-70. The results of the modelling show that recharge to the aquifer occurs as leakage from the upper confining unit owing to withdrawals from the aquifer. Of equal significance is the effect of water-level declines in the Englishtown aquifer, which generate leakage from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer through the lower confining unit, which in turn generates leakage (recharge) to the aquifer from the upper confining unit. The rapid declines of water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in the northern part of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, hence, are caused directly by the withdrawals from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and indirectly by withdrawals from the underlying Englishtown aquifer.

New Jersey↗

USGS2023

Impacts and uncertainties of climate-induced changes in watershed inputs on estuarine hypoxia

Multiple climate-driven stressors, including warming and increased nutrient delivery, are exacerbating hypoxia in coastal marine environments. Within coastal watersheds, environmental managers are particularly interested in climate impacts on terrestrial processes, which may undermine the efficacy of management actions designed to reduce eutrophication and consequent low-oxygen conditions in receiving coastal waters. However, substantial uncertainty accompanies the application of Earth system model (ESM) projections to a regional modeling framework when quantifying future changes to estuarine hypoxia due to climate change. In this study, two downscaling methods are applied to multiple ESMs and used to force two independent watershed models for Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary of the eastern United States. The projected watershed changes are then used to force a coupled 3-D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical estuarine model to project climate impacts on hypoxia, with particular emphasis on projection uncertainties. Results indicate that all three factors (ESM, downscaling method, and watershed model) are found to contribute substantially to the uncertainty associated with future hypoxia, with the choice of ESM being the largest contributor. Overall, in the absence of management actions, there is a high likelihood that climate change impacts on the watershed will expand low-oxygen conditions by 2050 relative to a 1990s baseline period; however, the projected increase in hypoxia is quite small (4 %) because only climate-induced changes in watershed inputs are considered and not those on the estuary itself. Results also demonstrate that the attainment of established nutrient reduction targets will reduce annual hypoxia by about 50 % compared to the 1990s. Given these estimates, it is virtually certain that fully implemented management actions reducing excess nutrient loadings will outweigh hypoxia increases driven by climate-induced changes in terrestrial runoff.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2019

National assessment of shoreline change — Historical shoreline change along the north coast of Alaska, Icy Cape to Cape Prince of Wales

Beach erosion is a persistent problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. Along the Arctic coast of Alaska, coastal erosion is widespread and threatens communities, defense and energy-related infrastructure, and coastal habitat. As coastal populations continue to expand and infrastructure and habitat are increasingly threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. Shoreline change was evaluated by comparing three to four historical shoreline positions derived from 1950s-era topographic surveys and black and white aerial photography, 1980s-era color-infrared Alaska High-Altitude Aerial Photography, 2003 natural color aerial photography, and 2010s-era natural color aerial photography. Long-term (1950s–2010s) and short-term (1980s–2010s) shoreline change rates were calculated using linear-regression and end-point methods, respectively, at transects spaced approximately every 50 meters along both the mainland and barrier island coasts. Shoreline change rates calculated on more than 24,000 individual transects indicate that between 1948 and 2016 the northern coast of Alaska between Icy Cape and Cape Prince of Wales was slightly erosional, with 68 percent of the total transects showing shoreline retreat over the long term and 63 percent over the short term. However, only 9 percent of the total transects showed shoreline retreat greater than 1 meter per year (m/yr) over the long and short term, respectively. Mean rates of shoreline change of −0.2±0.1 and −0.2±0.3 m/yr, were calculated for the long and short term, respectively. Many rates measured were near the limit of our shoreline change uncertainty estimates. Erosion and accretion rates on individual transects ranged from −8.3 to +9.6 m/yr over the long term and −16.0 to +20.0 m/yr over the short-term analysis periods. The highest rates of erosion and accretion were associated with the formation and migration of inlets along barrier island coasts. The highest erosional rates of change were measured in the southern part of the study area between Sullivan Lake and Cape Prince of Wales. The highest accretional rates of change were measured in the northern part of the study area on the open-ocean coast of barrier islands fronting Kasegaluk Lagoon. Open-ocean exposed shorelines compose 85 percent of all transects and 70 percent were erosional over the long term. Sheltered mainland-lagoon shorelines compose 15 percent of all transects in the study area and 58 percent were erosional over the long term. Although mean shoreline change rates were quite low along all coasts, exposed shorelines retreated at twice the rate (−0.2±0.1 m/yr) of sheltered shorelines (−0.1±0.1 m/yr). Barrier shoreline transects (includes barrier islands, spits, and beaches) compose 49 percent of the total transects and 56 percent of all exposed shoreline transects. Mean shoreline change rates on exposed barrier shorelines were only slightly greater than exposed mainland shorelines (−0.3±0.1 and −0.2±0.1 m/yr, respectively). Mean shoreline change rates on sheltered barrier shorelines were similar to sheltered mainland shorelines (−0.1±0.3 m/yr). In contrast to the majority of the Nation’s shorelines, for all but three months of the year (July–September), the north coast of Alaska has historically been protected by landfast sea ice from processes such as waves, winds, and currents that typically drive coastal change on beaches in more temperate regions of the world. Projected and observed increases in periods of sea-ice-free conditions, as sea ice melts earlier and forms later in the year, particularly in the autumn, when large storms are more common in the Arctic, suggest that Arctic coasts will be more vulnerable to storm surge and wave energy, potentially resulting in accelerated shoreline erosion and terrestrial habitat loss in the future. Increases in air and sea water temperatures may also increase erosion of the ice-rich, coastal permafrost bluffs present along much of Alaska’s Arctic coast. More frequent shoreline change data collection and analysis in this rapidly changing environment should be considered in order to evaluate shoreline change trends in the future.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the Western United States

This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 and to improve understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in ecosystems of the Western United States. The assessment examined carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and other GHG fluxes (methane and nitrous oxide) in all major terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands/shrublands, agricultural lands, and wetlands) and aquatic ecosystems (rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, and coastal waters) in two time periods: baseline (generally in the first half of the 2010s) and future (projections from baseline to 2050). The assessment was based on measured and observed data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and many other agencies and organizations and used remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Montana;Nevada;N↗

USGS2024

Shifting sands: The influence of coral reefs on shoreline erosion from short-term storm protection to long-term disequilibrium

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Nature-Based Solutions↗

USGS2021

Effects of chronic and acute stressors on transplanted black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) seedlings along an eroding Louisiana shoreline

Coastal wetland restoration can be used to offset past wetland losses and/or reduce future losses due to land-use changes, rising sea levels, and accelerating climate change. However, there is a need for information regarding the restoration-relevant performance of foundation species like mangrove and marsh plants, including their responses to acute and chronic stressors that can affect restoration outcomes. Mangrove encroachment and poleward range expansion into marsh, facilitated by warming winters, has provided restoration practitioners in the northern Gulf of Mexico with a new foundation plant species to consider using during restoration. To evaluate the performance of transplanted mangroves and characterize restoration-relevant marsh–mangrove interactions, we planted nursery-raised black mangrove ( Avicennia germinans ) seedlings within different marsh cover treatments along an eroding marsh-dominated shoreline in Louisiana. Mangrove seedling survival increased with greater densities of marsh cover, indicating that marsh grass ( Spartina alterniflora ) may facilitate mangrove establishment. However, only 35% of transplanted mangrove seedlings established after 10 weeks, suggesting a low return on resources expended in raising seedlings for 1–3 years in greenhouse conditions. Moreover, a 2018 freeze event killed 100% of transplanted mangrove seedlings, while nearby naturally established mangroves suffered minor damage. Our results, along with those in the mangrove restoration literature, indicate that planting mangroves in the northern Gulf of Mexico may not be the most efficient use of limited resources. Rather, restoration efforts may benefit from focusing initially on the restoration of abiotic conditions (e.g. elevation and hydrologic regimes), followed by using marsh plants (rather than transplanted mangroves) to jump-start ecosystem development.

Louisiana↗

USGSDate not supplied

Sand and gravel resources of Puerto Rico

Many of Puerto Rico's beaches are eroding, and though rates of erosion vary, it is a major concern for the tourism and residential development industries. More than 85 percent of the population lives within 7 kilometers of the coast and they are heavily dependent on tourists that are attracted by the island's beaches and coral reefs. High-quality scientific data are needed to help formulate public policy regarding residential and commercial construction along the coast, beach replenishment, and future use of marine resources. Scientists have long recognized that the causes of coastal land loss are not limited to a relative rise in sea level, but can be manmade as well. For example, sediment supply to beaches especially along the north shore of Puerto Rico has been strongly affected by upstream river channeling, dam construction, various agricultural practices, paving and urbanization, as well as shallow-water oceanographic processes. The response to coastal erosion in Puerto Rico has been mostly crisis based leading to engineered solutions that have a negative effect on the coastal environment.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS1984

Water-Level Measurements for the Coastal Plain Aquifers of South Carolina Prior to Development

Tabulations of water-level measurements for the Coastal Plain aquifers of South Carolina representing water levels prior to man-made development are presented. Included with the tabulations are local well number, location, land-surface altitude, well depth, screened interval, depth to water, water- level altitude, and date measured. These water-level measurements were used in compiling regional potentiometric maps for the Coastal Plain aquifers. This data set will be useful in the planning for future water-resource development.

South Carolina↗

USGS1976

Water resources of Lincoln County coastal area, Oregon

The Lincoln County coastal area is underlain by Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks of low permeability that store only a small volume of the annual precipitation which averages 68 inches (1,730 millimeters). Consequently, the Tertiary units yield small quantities of water to wells and furnish little ground-water discharge to maintain the base flow of streams. Although streamflow is normally abundant during the wet season, flow decreases greatly during summer when needed most. Quaternary marine terrace deposits of semiconsolidated sand border the western part of the area and are the most productive aquifers. Several wells drilled into the Quaternary deposits are among the highest producing wells of the area, with yields of 25 to 60 gallons per minute (1.6 to 3.8 liters per second). The Siletz River Volcanics is one of the better aquifers in the area and generally yields water in volumes sufficient for domestic use. The average well drilled into these rocks yields 5 to 10 gallons per minute (0.3 to 0.6 liters per second). Locally, this formation is quite permeable and has a producing well in the study area, with a yield of 120 gallons per minute (7.6 liters per second). Other volcanic rocks of small areal extent and largely untested, are the basalts near Depoe Bay, Cape Foulweather, Yachats, and Cape Perpetua. Wells drilled in January 1976 near Depoe Bay indicate that as much as 125 gal/min (10 L/s) of water can be obtained from wells drilled into the basalt. Tertiary marine sedimentary rocks of siltstone and sandstone are widespread throughout the area. Yields of wells drilled in these rocks are generally low (less than 5 gallons per minute, or 0.3 liters per second), and many wells in these formations produce no usable quantities of ground water. Approximately 5,000,000 acre-feet (6,000 cubic hectometers) of water discharges annually into the Pacific Ocean from all streams along the Lincoln County coast. About 85 percent of the annual streamflow occurs from November through April. Minimum streamflaws occur from August through October when, at times, as little as 450 acre-feet (55 hectometers) per day flows from all streams. Most of the ground water, with the exception of water from some wells drilled in the marine siltstone and sandstone, contains relatively small concentrations of dissolved minerals. Wells that tap the marine deposits at low altitudes have high concentrations of dissolved minerals, particularly sodium and chloride. In general, analyses of water from the 14 streams sampled in Lincoln County show very good chemical quality. The iron content of Depoe and Thiel Creeks is above the Environmental Protection Agency's recommended limit of 0.3 milligrams per liter for drinking water. Annual water use totals 6.7 billion gallons, which is less than 0.5 percent of runoff. About 70 percent of the use is for industrial purposes at one lumber products mill, about 25 percent is for public supplies, and less than 5 percent for irrigation. Water supplies for all municipalities in Lincoln County currently (1975) are obtained from surface-water sources. Because of rapid economic development of the coastal area, it is expected that additional water will be needed in the future. Additional water can be supplied (1) by reservoirs on major streams; (2) by the expansion, in some locations, of present surface-water facilities on small streams; and (3) locally, by an additional small volume of supplemental water from ground-water sources.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

The impact of 3D structure on coseismic coastal land-level change and tsunami generation in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Estimates of coseismic vertical displacements from past and potential future subduction zone earthquakes provide critical constraints on regional seismic and tsunami hazard. Many studies use elastic homogeneous half-space models to calculate vertical displacements from a specified earthquake slip distribution, neglecting complexities of 3D structure in subduction zone settings. Here, we use 3D ground motion simulations of potential Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes to investigate the impact of realistic 3D Earth structure on estimated vertical displacements. We show that offshore uplift increases when including 3D structure due to high fault slip in low-rigidity accretionary wedge sediments and coastal subsidence decreases due to higher rigidity material at depth. These larger offshore uplifts cause increased tsunami maximum wave heights, and coastal subsidence at paleoseismic sites decreases on average by ∼17 cm, or ∼60%, which can have important implications for the amplitude and extent of slip in earthquake scenarios developed based on paleoseismic data constraints.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2016

Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.

California↗

USGS2019

Simulation of water availability in the Southeastern United States for historical and potential future climate and land-cover conditions

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) and the Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, to evaluate the hydrologic response of a daily time step hydrologic model to historical observations and projections of potential climate and land-cover change for the period 1952–2099. The model simulations were used to compute the potential changes in hydrologic response and streamflow statistics across the Southeastern United States, using historical observations of climate and streamflow. Thirteen downscaled general circulation models with four representative concentration pathways were used to represent a range of potential future changes in climate (a total of 45 future simulations) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The streamflow statistics were selected to describe streamflow conditions that may be most useful in defining the suitability for each river or stream to support sustaining populations of priority aquatic species across the GCPO LCC. An application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (included as part of the USGS National Hydrologic Model) was used to develop the hydrologic simulations. The results showed increases in air temperature across the study area, with the highest increases occurring in the northern part of the study area during July to September. The results showed a mix of increases and decreases in precipitation accumulation across the study area and across seasons, with decreases in precipitation accumulation across all seasons for the southwestern part of the study area. Actual evapotranspiration decreased for the southeastern part of the study area and increased for the northwestern part of the study area. The results showed general decreases in runoff across the study area, with increases in runoff in areas surrounding large metropolitan regions where potential future increases in impervious area occur. Results from a statistical analysis (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) showed that the downscaled general circulation models generally have more skill in producing historical streamflow statistics in the duration and magnitude categories and less skill in producing historical streamflow statistics in the frequency, rate of change, and timing categories for this study area. The potential changes in the streamflow statistics and the results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are available through the GCPO LCC Conservation Planning Atlas, an online science-based mapping platform built specifically for land managers and planners.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kan↗

USGS2022

Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (<i>Anas fulvigula</i>), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2026

Variable pH habitats could help prepare stone crabs for coastal acidification

Coastal acidification is being exacerbated by terrestrial organic inputs, especially after high precipitation events. Florida’s rainy season coincides with stone crab ( Menippe mercenaria) reproduction, and pH extremes could limit future harvests by reducing reproductive output. Populations that experience pH variability can serve as “natural laboratories” for estimating the tolerance of a species to coastal acidification. Here, we conducted a series of experiments to determine if ovigerous stone crabs conditioned in more variable pH habitats (seagrass) would result in faster embryonic development, greater hatching success, and higher larval survival relative to crabs conditioned in habitats with lower pH variability (sandy habitats). After field conditioning, crabs were transported to the laboratory and randomly acclimated to either a control pH (pH = ~ 7.90) or a reduced pH condition (pH = ~ 7.60) until larval release. The rate of embryo development was slower in the laboratory reduced pH treatment, however, there were no observable field condition effects on embryo development rate. Crabs conditioned in the more pH variable seagrass habitat did have greater hatching success and higher larval survival than crabs in less pH variable sandy habitats; however, larval survival was low across all treatments. These results suggest that the pH variability experienced in seagrass habitats during brooding may serve as a mechanism for stone crabs to acclimatize to extremes in seawater pH.

Marine Biology↗

USGS2025

The stratigraphic record of the mid-Piacenzian warm period on the Atlantic Coastal Plain

Anthropogenic climate change is an existential threat to our planet, impacting everything from the delicate balance of ecosystems to the availability of vital resources. Coastal regions, particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to rising sea levels and changing weather patterns, are experiencing increased erosion, flooding, and habitat loss. Understanding how coastal regions responded to past warming is crucial for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. One past interval commonly used to examine and compare with climate model projections of near future conditions is the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP) which occurred between*3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Here we review the stratigraphy of Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) sediments to determine the stratigraphic position of the MPWP by evaluating ages based upon existing and new planktic foraminifer occurrence data calibrated to the current geologic time scale (GTS2020). We identify geologic formations representing pre-, syn-, and post-MPWP environments. The Sunken Meadow Member of the Yorktown Formation in Virginia and North Carolina and the Wabasso beds in the subsurface of Georgia and Florida both fall within Planktic Foraminiferal Zone PL1 and represent pre-MPWP Pliocene deposits. Parts of the Yorktown Formation in southeastern Virginia and northern North Carolina, the Duplin Formation in North Carolina and South Carolina, and the Raysor Formation in South Carolina and Georgia, fall within Planktic Foraminiferal Zone PL3 and were deposited following a major regression associated with a global drop in sea level during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 and represent syn-MPWP deposits. Representing the immediately post-MPWP climate conditions (Planktic Foraminiferal Zone PL5) are the Chowan River, Bear Bluff, and Cypresshead Formations. This work provides a record of the MPWP from Georgia to Virginia and provides a stratigraphic framework within which the impacts of a profound global warming on the east coast of the United States can be assessed.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2014

Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the eastern United States

This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to conduct a comprehensive national assessment of storage and flux (flow) of carbon and the fluxes of other greenhouse gases in ecosystems of the Eastern United States. These carbon and greenhouse gas variables were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands/shrublands, agricultural lands, and wetlands) and aquatic ecosystems (rivers, streams, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters) in the Eastern United States in two time periods: baseline (from 2001 through 2005) and future (projections from the end of the baseline through 2050). The Great Lakes were not included in this assessment due to a lack of input data. The assessment was based on measured and observed data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and many other agencies and organizations and used remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2014

Assessment of suitable habitat for Phragmites australis (common reed) in the Great Lakes coastal zone

In the Laurentian Great Lakes, the invasive form of Phragmites australis (common reed) poses a threat to highly productive coastal wetlands and shorelines by forming impenetrable stands that outcompete native plants. Large, dominant stands can derail efforts to restore wetland ecosystems degraded by other stressors. To be proactive, landscape-level management of Phragmites requires information on the current spatial distribution of the species and a characterization of areas suitable for future colonization. Using a recent basin-scale map of this invasive plant’s distribution in the U.S. coastal zone of the Great Lakes, environmental data (e.g., soils, nutrients, disturbance, climate, topography), and climate predictions, we performed analyses of current and predicted suitable coastal habitat using boosted regression trees, a type of species distribution modeling. We also investigated differential influences of environmental variables in the upper lakes (Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron) and lower lakes (Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario). Basin-wide results showed that the coastal areas most vulnerable to Phragmites expansion were in close proximity to developed lands and had minimal topographic relief, poorly drained soils, and dense road networks. Elevated nutrients and proximity to agriculture also influenced the distribution of Phragmites . Climate predictions indicated an increase in suitable habitat in coastal Lakes Huron and Michigan in particular. The results of this study, combined with a publicly available online decision support tool, will enable resource managers and restoration practitioners to target and prioritize Phragmites control efforts in the Great Lakes coastal zone.

Great Lakes↗