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U.S. Geological Survey sagebrush ecosystem research annual report for 2020

The sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem extends across 251,473 square miles over portions of 13 western States. Affected by multiple stressors, including interactions among fire, invasive plants, and human land uses, this ecosystem has experienced significant loss, fragmentation, and degradation of landscapes once dominated by sagebrush. In turn, wildlife populations have declined following these deleterious conditions. Federal, State, local, and Tribal agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and industry have been galvanized by declining wildlife populations to implement management actions to confront the impacts of these stressors and ensure the long-term availability of the sagebrush ecosystem for the broad range of uses critical to stakeholders in the Western United States. The sagebrush ecosystem provides habitat for more than 350 species of plants and animals that are dependent on sagebrush for all or part of their annual life history. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) stands out as an iconic species of this ecosystem. Sage-grouse populations occur in 11 States, and 2 Canadian Provinces and require relatively large expanses of sagebrush-dominated habitat to meet all their seasonal habitat needs. Recent management actions to conserve and maintain the sagebrush ecosystem have focused on the protection and restoration of sage-grouse habitat; however, each of the 350 species has a unique life history and differing area requirements (for example, large areas for mule deer [ Odocoileus hemionus ] and small areas for pygmy rabbit [ Brachylagus idahoensis ]), and some species, such as migratory birds, rely on various parts of the sagebrush ecosystem but only for part of the year (for example, Brewer’s sparrow [ Spizella breweri ]). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a broad research program focused on the sagebrush ecosystem, wildlife species within the ecosystem, and the species’ response to stressors and management actions. The program provides a foundation of scientific information for use in major land and resource management decisions in the sagebrush ecosystem. By providing the science to inform these decisions, the USGS is assisting land and resource managers at the Federal, State, Tribal, and local levels working towards the goal of sustainable wildlife populations and restored landscapes. This information can inform planning and management conducted by nongovernmental organizations as well. USGS research is tailored specifically to inform adaptive management, improve strategies for maintaining existing areas of intact sagebrush, and restoring degraded landscapes. Examples of research support for partners include providing information for actions such as the preclusion of the need to list the greater sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act and recent revisions to Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service resource management plans and land use. The USGS continues to provide foundational science to inform science-based decisions within the U.S. Department of the Interior and other Federal, State, and local agencies and their continued conservation, management, and restoration of the sagebrush ecosystem to help support local economies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev

LANDFIRE: Collaboration for National Fire Fuel Assessment

The implementation of national fire management policies, such as the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forest Restoration Act, requires geospatial data of vegetation types and structure, wildland fuels, fire risks, and ecosystem fire regime conditions. Presently, no such data sets are available that can meet these requirements. As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service and the Department of the Interior's land management bureaus (Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), and National Park Service (NPS)) have jointly sponsored LANDFIRE, a new research and development project. The primary objective of the project is to develop an integrated and repeatable methodology and produce vegetation, fire, and ecosystem information and predictive models for cost-effective national land management applications. The project is conducted collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the USDA Forest Service, and The Nature Conservancy.

Fact Sheet

Invasive species research—Science for detection, containment, and control

Invasive species research within the U.S. Geological Survey’s Ecosystems Mission Area focuses on invasive organisms throughout the United States. U.S. Geological Survey scientists work with partners in the Department of the Interior, other Federal, State and Territorial agencies, Tribes, industry, and agriculture to provide the information needed to help solve problems posed by these invaders. Key components of U.S. Geological Survey invasive species science include the development of novel prevention, prediction, early detection, containment, and control tools.

Fact Sheet

A review of surface energy balance models for estimating actual evapotranspiration with remote sensing at high spatiotemporal resolution over large extents

Many approaches have been developed for measuring or estimating actual evapotranspiration ( ET a ), and research over many years has led to the development of remote sensing methods that are reliably reproducible and effective in estimating ET a . Several remote sensing methods can be used to estimate ET a at the high spatial resolution of agricultural fields and the large extent of river basins. More complex remote sensing methods apply an analytical approach to ET a estimation using physically based models of varied complexity that require a combination of ground-based and remote sensing data, and are grounded in the theory behind the surface energy balance model. This report, funded through cooperation with the International Joint Commission, provides an overview of selected remote sensing methods used for estimating water consumed through ET a and focuses on Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) and Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), two energy balance models for estimating ET a that are currently applied successfully in the United States. The METRIC model can produce maps of ET a at high spatial resolution (30 meters using Landsat data) for specific areas smaller than several hundred square kilometers in extent, an improvement in practice over methods used more generally at larger scales. Many studies validating METRIC estimates of ET a against measurements from lysimeters have shown model accuracies on daily to seasonal time scales ranging from 85 to 95 percent. The METRIC model is accurate, but the greater complexity of METRIC results in greater data requirements, and the internalized calibration of METRIC leads to greater skill required for implementation. In contrast, SSEBop is a simpler model, having reduced data requirements and greater ease of implementation without a substantial loss of accuracy in estimating ET a . The SSEBop model has been used to produce maps of ET a over very large extents (the conterminous United States) using lower spatial resolution (1 kilometer) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Model accuracies ranging from 80 to 95 percent on daily to annual time scales have been shown in numerous studies that validated ET a estimates from SSEBop against eddy covariance measurements. The METRIC and SSEBop models can incorporate low and high spatial resolution data from MODIS and Landsat, but the high spatiotemporal resolution of ET a estimates using Landsat data over large extents takes immense computing power. Cloud computing is providing an opportunity for processing an increasing amount of geospatial “big data” in a decreasing period of time. For example, Google Earth Engine TM has been used to implement METRIC with automated calibration for regional-scale estimates of ET a using Landsat data. The U.S. Geological Survey also is using Google Earth Engine TM to implement SSEBop for estimating ET a in the United States at a continental scale using Landsat data.

Scientific Investigations Report

Species richness and relative abundance of breeding birds in forests of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

In 1992, the Vicksburg Field Research Station of the National Wetlands Research Center initiated research on the ecology of migratory birds within forests of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). The MAV was historically a nearly contiguous bottomland hardwood forest, however, only remnants remain. These remnants are fragmented and often influenced by drainage projects, silviculture, agriculture, and urban development. Our objectives are to assess species richness and relative abundance, and to relate these to the size, quality, and composition of forest stands. Species richness and relative abundance were estimated for 53 randomly selected forest sites using 1 to 8 point counts per site, depending on the size of the forest fragment. However, statistical comparisons among sites will be restricted to an equal number ofpoint counts within the sites being compared. Point counts, lasting five minutes, were conducted from 11 May to 29 June 1992, foltowing Ralph, Sauer, and Droege (Point Count Standards; memo dated 9 March 1992). Vegetation was measured at the first three points on each site using a modification of the methods employed by Martin and Roper (Condor 90: 5 1-57; 1988). During 252 counts, 7 1 species were encountered, but only 62 species were encountered within a 50-m radius of point center. The mean number of species encountered within 50 m of a point, was 7.3 (s.d. = 2.7) and the mean number of individuals was 11.2 (s.d. = 4.2). The mean number of species detected at any distance was 9.6 (s.d, = 2.8) and the mean number of individuals was 15.6 (s.d. = 7.9). The most frequently encountered warblers in the MAV were Prothonotary Warbler and Northern Parula. Rarely encountered warblers were American Redstart and Worm-eating Warbler. The genera, Quercus, Ulmus, Carya, and Celtis were each encountered at 80 or more of the 152 points at which vegetation was sampled. Species most frequentlyencountered were: sugarberry (Celtis laevagata), water hickory (Caqa aquatica), American elm (Ulmus arnericana), sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) and willow oak (Quercus phellos) The mean basal area of all trees 10 cm diameter-at-breast height (dbh) was 28 m2 /ha (range 7-70). The mean canopy cover was 87 percent, mean canopy height was 20 m, ground cover was 60 percent, and vegetation density (2-7 m) was 47 percent. The most frequently encountered understory species were sugarberry, ash (Fraxinus spp.), maple (Acer spp.), and elm (Ulnrus spp.). A cooperative GIs effort among the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Nature Conservancy, and the University of Arkansas is currently classifying forested habitats within the MAV. This effort will provide information on stand size and topology which will be used in concert with our current data, and data from visits to additional forest stands in 1993, to assess the relationship between the size, quatity, and composition of forests within the MAV and their breeding bird community.

Book chapter

Integrating multisource land use and land cover data

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) land use and land cover (LULC) program, the USGS in cooperation with the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) is collecting and integrating LULC data for a standard USGS 1:100,000-scale product. The LULC data collection techniques include interpreting spectrally clustered Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images; interpreting 1-meter resolution digital panchromatic orthophoto images; and, for comparison, aggregating locally available large-scale digital data of urban areas. The area selected is the Vancouver, WA-OR quadrangle, which has a mix of urban, rural agriculture, and forest land. Anticipated products include an integrated LULC prototype data set in a standard classification scheme referenced to the USGS digital line graph (DLG) data of the area and prototype software to develop digital LULC data sets. This project will evaluate a draft standard LULC classification system developed by the USGS for use with various source material and collection techniques. Federal, State, and local governments, and private sector groups will have an opportunity to evaluate the resulting prototype software and data sets and to provide recommendations. It is anticipated that this joint research endeavor will increase future collaboration among interested organizations, public and private, for LULC data collection using common standards and tools.

Open-File Report

Complex response of a midcontinent north America drainage system to late Wisconsinan sedimentation

The geomorphic evolution of Mud Creek basin in eastern Iowa, U.S.A. serves to illustrate how geomorphic influences such as sediment supply, valley gradient, climate, and vegetation are recorded in the alluvial stratigraphic record. Sediment supply to the fluvial system increased significantly during the late Wisconsinan through a combination of periglacial erosion and loess accumulation. Subsequent evolution of the Holocene alluvial stratigraphic record reflects long-term routing of the late Wisconsinan sediment through the drainage basin in a series of cut-and-fill cycles whose timing was influenced by hydrologic response to change in climate and vegetation. When viewed in a regional context, the alluvial stratigraphic record appears to reflect a long-term complex response of the fluvial system to increased sediment supply during the late Wisconsinan. Hydrologic and sediment-supply changes accompanying the spread of Euroamerican agriculture to the basin in the 1800s dramatically upset trends in sedimentation and channel behavior established during the Holocene.

Journal of Sedimentary Research

Satellite assessment of winter cover crop and conservation tillage outcomes to support adaptive management in working landscapes

The use of winter cover crops and conservation tillage are agricultural practices promoted to reduce nutrient and sediment loss from cropland, improve soil health, increase infiltration, and support farm nutrient cycling and ecosystem services. However, environmental performance of these practices is variable in the working farm landscape. The Lower Chesapeake Bay research project within the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network has collaboratively developed satellite remote sensing algorithms to measure the performance and phenology of winter cover crops (aboveground biomass, nitrogen content, fractional cover, and emergence and termination dates) using no-cost Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite imagery. This research supports annual operational assessment of >28,000 fields per year in four states. Results document the impacts of agronomic management on conservation outcomes, support adaptive management of incentive payment structures, and can reduce the workload for conservation district staff by remotely verifying cover crop management. Additionally, super-spectral satellite applications have been developed to accurately map crop residue cover by measuring lignocellulose absorption in shortwave infrared wavelengths, producing a 7-year time series of tillage intensity maps for the Delmarva Peninsula. These remote sensing products can be used in decision support and modeling to estimate changes in nutrient, sediment, and carbon cycling resulting from conservation practice implementation in the working farm landscape. This manuscript provides an overview of remote sensing research findings and applications associated with the USDA LTAR and Conservation Effects Assessment Projects (CEAP), documenting a variety of previously published outcomes with update and expansion of techniques using additional unpublished data and analyses as appropriate.

Maryland

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Earth Interactions

Chronic wasting disease—Research by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners

Introduction Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is the only transmissible spongiform encephalopathy, a class of invariably fatal neurodegenerative mammalian diseases associated with a misfolded cellular prion protein found in wild free-ranging animals. Because it has a long incubation period, affected animals in Cervidae (the deer family; referred to as “cervids”) may not show signs of disease for several years. While signs are not specific to CWD, affected cervids (deer, elk, moose, and reindeer) show changes in appearance (such as progressive weight loss) and changes in behavior such as stumbling, tremors, and teeth grinding. CWD can be transmitted by direct contact or through a contaminated environment. The causative prion agent is highly resistant to degradation. In recent decades, CWD has transitioned from a novel, obscure prion disease of cervids with limited geographical distribution, to a disease that poses substantial ecological, agricultural, and economic risks across large regions of North America. Since its discovery in free-ranging elk and deer populations in the western United States in the 1980s, CWD has been reported in captive or free-ranging cervid populations in 26 States, 3 Canadian Provinces, the Republic of South Korea, Finland, Sweden, and Norway. In addition, the proportion of CWD-infected animals is increasing in many areas where the disease is already established. In some heavily affected areas, total cervid numbers have decreased over time due to CWD, which suggests that these cervid populations may not be sustainable in the long-term. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts wildlife disease surveillance and research to support management of CWD-affected species and their habitats. The scientific information is relevant to governmental agencies that manage wildlife and their habitats including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other Federal, State, and Tribal agencies as well as conservation partners (non-governmental organizations, businesses, and private landowners). Each project description in this report (1–30) includes the non-USGS collaborators (Federal, State, Tribal agencies, universities) and a USGS point of contact (principal investigator). If there are USGS publications associated with the project, a publication list is provided at the end of each project description.

Alberta, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas

Retrospective analysis of the epidemiologic literature, 1990–2015, on wildlife-associated diseases from the Republic of Korea

To assess the status of research on wildlife diseases in the Republic of Korea (ROK) and to identify trends, knowledge gaps, and directions for future research, we reviewed epidemiologic publications on wildlife-associated diseases in the ROK. We identified a relatively small but rapidly increasing body of literature. The majority of publications were focused on public or livestock health and relatively few addressed wildlife health. Most studies that focused on human and livestock health were cross-sectional whereas wildlife health studies were mostly case reports. Fifteen diseases notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health were identified and 21 diseases were identified as notifiable to either the Korean Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Family Affairs or the Korean Ministry of Agriculture. Two diseases were reported as occurring as epidemics; highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and virulent Newcastle disease. Six diseases or disease agents were described in the literature as emerging including HPAI, rabies, Babesia microti , avian coronaviruses, scrub typhus, and severe fever thrombocytopenia syndrome virus. The diseases for which there were the largest number of publications were HPAI and rabies. The majority of wildlife-associated zoonotic disease publications focused on food-borne parasitic infections or rodent-associated diseases. Several publications focused on the potential of wildlife as reservoirs of livestock diseases; in particular, water deer ( Hydropotes inermis ) and wild boar ( Sus scrofa ). In contrast, there were few publications on diseases of concern for wildlife populations or research to understand the impacts of these diseases for wildlife management. Increased focus on prospective studies would enhance understanding of disease dynamics in wildlife populations. For the high-consequence diseases that impact multiple sectors, a One Health approach, with coordination among the public health, agricultural, and environmental sectors, would be important. This type of review can provide useful information for countries or regions planning or implementing national wildlife health programs.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Understanding the influence of nutrients on stream ecosystems in agricultural landscapes

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, State, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/applications/ ). Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. Excess nutrients are a pervasive problem of streams, lakes, and coastal waters. The current report, “The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters—Understanding the Effects of Nutrients on Stream Ecosystems in Agricultural Landscapes,” presents a summary of results from USGS investigations conducted from 2003 to 2011 on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological components of agricultural streams. This study included collecting data from 232 sites distributed among eight study areas. This report summarizes findings on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological communities in agricultural streams. These findings are relevant to local, State, regional, and national decision-makers involved in efforts to (1) better understand the influence of nutrients on agricultural streams, (2) develop nutrient criteria for streams and rivers, (3) reduce nutrients to streams and downstream receiving waters, and (4) develop tools for tracking nutrient and biological conditions following nutrient reduction strategies. All NAWQA reports are available online at https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ . We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Central Columbia-Yakima River Basins, Great River

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published from October 2019 to July 2022

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here and built on to incorporate new information. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter “GRSG”) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” under the Endangered Species Act was in part a result of a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the USGS has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. Our most recent GRSG literature summary was published in 2020 (Carter and others, 2020) and included products published through October 2, 2019. Here, we consider products published between October 2, 2019, and July 21, 2022. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, data products, and formal technical reports (such as U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service General Technical Reports and USGS Open-File Reports) on greater sage-grouse. We first systematically searched three reference databases and three government databases using the search phrase “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) publications not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (3) products for which greater sage-grouse was not a research focus or the study did not present new data or findings about greater sage-grouse. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified management topics addressed by each product; for example, species and population characteristics. We also identified projects that provided new geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included two initial internal colleague reviews of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 221 total products, of which 147 met our criteria for inclusion. Across products summarized in the annotated bibliography, broad-scale habitat characteristics, behavior or demographics, site-scale habitat characteristics, habitat selection, and population estimates or targets were the most commonly addressed management topics. The online version of this bibliography, which will be available on the Science for Resource Managers tool ( https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers ), will be searchable by topic, location, and year, and will include links to each original publication. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore sagebrush landscapes and GRSG populations across the GRSG range.

Open-File Report

A method for quantifying cloud immersion in a tropical mountain forest using time-lapse photography

Quantifying the frequency, duration, and elevation range of fog or cloud immersion is essential to estimate cloud water deposition in water budgets and to understand the ecohydrology of cloud forests. The goal of this study was to develop a low-cost and high spatial-coverage method to detect occurrence of cloud immersion within a mountain cloud forest by using time-lapse photography. Trail cameras and temperature/relative humidity sensors were deployed at five sites covering the elevation range from the assumed lifting condensation level to the mountain peaks in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Cloud-sensitive image characteristics (contrast, the coefficient of variation and the entropy of pixel luminance, and image colorfulness) were used with a k -means clustering approach to accurately detect cloud-immersed conditions in a time series of images from March 2014 to May 2016. Images provided hydrologically meaningful cloud-immersion information while temperature-relative humidity data were used to refine the image analysis using dew point information and provided temperature gradients along the elevation transect. Validation of the image processing method with human-judgment based classification generally indicated greater than 90% accuracy. Cloud-immersion frequency averaged 80% at sites above 900 m during nighttime hours and 49% during daytime hours, and was consistent with diurnal patterns of cloud immersion measured in a previous study. Results for the 617 m site demonstrated that cloud immersion in the Luquillo Mountains rarely occurs at the previously-reported cloud base elevation of about 600 m (11% during nighttime hours and 5% during daytime hours). The framework presented in this paper will be used to monitor at a low cost and high spatial resolution the long-term variability of cloud-immersion patterns in the Luquillo Mountains, and can be applied to ecohydrology research at other cloud-forest sites or in coastal ecosystems with advective sea fog.

El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico

Assessing the fit of site-occupancy models

Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always be detected at a site when present. Recently a model has been developed that enables estimation of the proportion of area occupied, when the target species is not detected with certainty. Here we apply this modeling approach to data collected on terrestrial salamanders in the Plethodon glutinosus complex in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, and wish to address the question 'how accurately does the fitted model represent the data?' The goodness-of-fit of the model needs to be assessed in order to make accurate inferences. This article presents a method where a simple Pearson chi-square statistic is calculated and a parametric bootstrap procedure is used to determine whether the observed statistic is unusually large. We found evidence that the most global model considered provides a poor fit to the data, hence estimated an overdispersion factor to adjust model selection procedures and inflate standard errors. Two hypothetical datasets with known assumption violations are also analyzed, illustrating that the method may be used to guide researchers to making appropriate inferences. The results of a simulation study are presented to provide a broader view of the methods properties.

North Carolina, Tennessee

Characterization of the hydrogeology and water quality at the Management Systems Evaluation Area near Princeton, Minnesota, 1991-92

The Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) program is part of a multi-scale, inter-agency initiative to evaluate the effects of agricultural management systems on water quality in the midwest corn belt. The Minnesota MSEA project is one of five projects selected to represent the principal hydrogeologic settings and geographic diversity of prevailing management systems in the midwest corn belt. The Minnesota MSEA research area is located in the Anoka Sand Plain about 5 kilometers southwest of Princeton, Minnesota. The water-quality monitoring network within the 65-hectare research area consists of 29 observation wells and 22 multiport wells. Thirteen observation wells also are located outside the research area. Glacial deposits beneath the research area generally consist of fine to medium sand in the unsaturated zone and coarse to very coarse sand and gravel in the saturated zone. The average depth to the water table is about 3.6 meters below land surface. Ground-water recharge during 1992 was lower (4.9-13.2 centimeters) than during 1991 (11.7-25.7 centimeters) because of reduced precipitation (58.5 centimeters during 1992 and 94.5 centimeters during 1991). Estimates of saturated horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the surficial aquifer were made using five methods. Results were within about two orders of magnitude and also agree favorably with estimates from a previous study of the Anoka Sand Plain. The smallest hydraulic conductivities were obtained using laboratory analyses (0.0052 centimeters per second) and the largest estimate was obtained from results of an aquifer test (0.2820 centimeters per second). The estimate of hydraulic conductivity based on the time of travel of chloride (0.0655 centimeters per second) is considered most accurate and representative of the surficial aquifer in the research area. Anthropogenic effects of previous land use were detected in water samples collected during April 1991, prior to implementation of the MSEA farming systems. Concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate-N) in the surficial aquifer equaled or exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in 4 of the 7 wells in the research area. The maximum concentration of nitrate-N in ground water from these wells was 23 mg/L with a median of 10 mg/L. The median concentration of nitrate-N for these wells exceeded the median in wells located upgradient from the research area (2.1 mg/L). Similarly, the median concentration of chloride from wells in the research area (11 mg/L) exceeded the median in upgradient wells (3.8 mg/L). On-site sources of the elevated nitrate-N include decomposition of alfalfa, grown on-site during 1981-89, and application of nitrogen fertilizer to corn during 1990. A likely on-site source of the elevated chloride is application of potassium-chloride fertilizer to crops prior to 1991. Atrazine was detected by gas chromatography mass spectroscopy in 2 of the 7 wells in the research area at concentrations of 0.04 and 0.17 micrograms per liter (ug/L), well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum contaminant level of 3 ug/L. The median concentration in these Wells was less than the qualitative detection limit of 0.01 ug/L. Atrazine metabolite de-ethylatrazine was the most frequently detected herbicide or herbicide metabolite. De-ethylatrazine was detected in 5 of the 7 wells in the research area at concentrations ranging from 0.12 to 0.32 ug/L with a median concentration of 0.14 ug/L. Atrazine metabolite de-isopropylatrazine was not detected above the qualitative detection limit of 0.06 ug/L. The most likely sources of atrazine are applications to the research area during 1990 or from precipitation.

Minnesota

Using Landsat satellite data to support pesticide exposure assessment in California

Background The recent U.S. Geological Survey policy offering Landsat satellite data at no cost provides researchers new opportunities to explore relationships between environment and health. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential for using Landsat satellite data to support pesticide exposure assessment in California. Methods and Results We collected a dense time series of 24 Landsat 5 and 7 images spanning the year 2000 for an agricultural region in Fresno County. We intersected the Landsat time series with the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) land use map and selected field samples to define the phenological characteristics of 17 major crop types or crop groups. We found the frequent overpass of Landsat enabled detection of crop field conditions (e.g., bare soil, vegetated) over most of the year. However, images were limited during the winter months due to cloud cover. Many samples designated as single-cropped in the CDWR map had phenological patterns that represented multi-cropped or non-cropped fields, indicating they may have been misclassified. Conclusions We found the combination of Landsat 5 and 7 image data would clearly benefit pesticide exposure assessment in this region by 1) providing information on crop field conditions at or near the time when pesticides are applied, and 2) providing information for validating the CDWR map. The Landsat image time-series was useful for identifying idle, single-, and multi-cropped fields. Landsat data will be limited during the winter months due to cloud cover, and for years prior to the Landsat 7 launch (1999) when only one satellite was operational at any given time. We suggest additional research to determine the feasibility of integrating CDWR land use maps and Landsat data to derive crop maps in locations and time periods where maps are not available, which will allow for substantial improvements to chemical exposure estimation.

California

Reproductive health and endocrine disruption in smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) from the Lake Erie drainage, Pennsylvania, USA

Smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were sampled from three sites within the Lake Erie drainage (Elk Creek, Twentymile Creek, and Misery Bay, an embayment in Presque Isle Bay). Plasma, tissues for histopathological analyses, and liver and testes preserved in RNALater® were sampled from 30 smallmouth bass (of both sexes) at each site. Liver and testes samples were analyzed for transcript abundance with Nanostring nCounter® technology. Evidence of estrogenic endocrine disruption was assessed by the presence and severity of intersex (testicular oocytes; TO) and concentrations of plasma vitellogenin in male fish. Abundance of 17 liver transcripts associated with reproductive function, endocrine activity, and contaminant detoxification pathways and 40 testes transcripts associated with male and female reproductive function, germ cell development, and steroid biosynthesis were also measured. Males with a high rate of TO (87–100%) and plasma vitellogenin were noted at all sites; however, TO severity was greatest at the site with the highest agricultural land cover. Numerous transcripts were differentially regulated among the sites and patterns of transcript abundance were used to better understand potential risk factors for estrogenic endocrine disruption. The results of this study suggest endocrine disruption is prevalent in this region and further research would benefit to identify the types of contaminants that may be associated with the observed biological effects.

Pennsylvania