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Modeling survival: application of the Andersen-Gill model to Yellowstone grizzly bears

Wildlife ecologists often use the Kaplan-Meier procedure or Cox proportional hazards model to estimate survival rates, distributions, and magnitude of risk factors. The Andersen-Gill formulation (A-G) of the Cox proportional hazards model has seen limited application to mark-resight data but has a number of advantages, including the ability to accommodate left-censored data, time-varying covariates, multiple events, and discontinuous intervals of risks. We introduce the A-G model including structure of data, interpretation of results, and assessment of assumptions. We then apply the model to 22 years of radiotelemetry data for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) of the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, USA. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC c ) and multi-model inference to assess a number of potentially useful predictive models relative to explanatory covariates for demography, human disturbance, and habitat. Using the most parsimonious models, we generated risk ratios, hypothetical survival curves, and a map of the spatial distribution of high-risk areas across the recovery zone. Our results were in agreement with past studies of mortality factors for Yellowstone grizzly bears. Holding other covariates constant, mortality was highest for bears that were subjected to repeated management actions and inhabited areas with high road densities outside Yellowstone National Park. Hazard models developed with covariates descriptive of foraging habitats were not the most parsimonious, but they suggested that high-elevation areas offered lower risks of mortality when compared to agricultural areas.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Will an "island" population of voles be recolonized if eradicated? Insights from molecular genetic analyses

We performed genetic analyses of Microtus longicaudus populations within the Crook Point Unit of the Oregon Islands National Wildlife Refuge. A M. longicaudus population at Saddle Rock (located approx. 65 m off‐shore from the Crook Point mainland) is suspected to be partially responsible for declines of a Leach's storm‐petrel colony at this important nesting site. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism markers and mitochondrial DNA, we illustrate that Saddle Rock and Crook Point function as separate island and mainland populations despite their close proximity. In addition to genetic structure, we also observed reduced genetic diversity at Saddle Rock, suggesting that little individual movement occurs between populations. If local resource managers decide to perform an eradication at Saddle Rock, we conclude that immediate recolonization of the island by M. longicaudus would be unlikely. Because M. longicaudus is native to Oregon, we also consider the degree with which the differentiation of Saddle Rock signifies the presence of a unique entity that warrants conservation rather than eradication

Oregon

Seasonal habitat use and selection by grizzly bears in Northern British Columbia

We defined patterns of habitat use and selection by female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Besa-Prophet watershed of northern British Columbia. We fitted 13 adult females with Geographic Positioning System (GPS) radio-collars and monitored them between 2001 and 2004. We examined patterns of habitat selection by grizzly bears relative to topographical attributes and 3 potential surrogates of food availability: land-cover class, vegetation biomass or quality (as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and selection value for prey species themselves (moose [Alces alces], elk [Cervus elaphus], woodland caribou [Rangifer tarandus]. Stone's sheep [Ovis dalli stonei]). Although vegetation biomass and quality, and selection values for prey were important in seasonal selection by some individual bears, land-cover class, elevation, aspect, and vegetation diversity most influenced patterns of habitat selection across grizzly bears, which rely on availability of plant foods and encounters with ungulate prey. Grizzly bears as a group avoided conifer stands and areas of low vegetation diversity, and selected for burned land-cover classes and high vegetation diversity across seasons. They also selected mid elevations from what was available within seasonal ranges. Quantifying relative use of different attributes helped place selection patterns within the context of the landscape. Grizzly bears used higher elevations (1,595 ± 31 m SE) in spring and lower elevations (1,436 ± 27 m) in fall; the range of average elevations used among individuals was highest (500 m) during the summer. During all seasons, grizzly bears most frequented aspects with high solar gain. Use was distributed across 10 land-cover classes and depended on season. Management and conservation actions must maintain a diverse habitat matrix distributed across a large elevational gradient to ensure persistence of grizzly bears as levels of human access increase in the northern Rocky Mountains.

Northern British Columbia

Monitoring arctic habitat and goose production by satellite imagery

Spacecraft imagery, especially from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's Improved TIROS (Television Infra-Red Observational Satellite) Operational Satellites, permits timely evaluations of snow and ice conditions encountered by arctic nesting geese. Imagery from the TIROS satellite for 5 wide]y scattered locations in arctic North America was obtained for three 3-day intervals in June 1973 and 1974. These pictures were used to expand fragmentary habitat data available from ground observations. Late disappearance of snow and ice may prevent or retard nesting effort and reproductive success. Our immediate aim is to recognize years of catastrophic or very good production; however, supporting information from ground studies, LANDSAT imagery, analyses of banding data, and studies of age ratios in popu]ations and harvests eventua]]y may permit assessment of relative reproductive success. Satellite images from both Multi-Spectral Scanner and Very High Resolution Radiomder sensors were first used as management tools for consideration in setting the U.S. and Canadian regulations for the 1975-76 goose hunting season. Preliminary age ratio data from field observations and harvests substantiated the prediction of good production during the 1975 breeding season.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Survival of mountain quail translocated from two distinct source populations

Translocation of mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) to restore viable populations to their former range has become a common practice. Because differences in post-release vital rates between animals from multiple source populations has not been well studied, wildlife and land managers may arbitrarily choose the source population or base the source population on immediate availability when planning translocation projects. Similarly, an understanding of the optimal proportion of individuals from different age and sex classes for translocation would benefit translocation planning. During 2006 and 2007, we captured and translocated 125 mountain quail from 2 ecologically distinct areas: 38 from southern California and 87 from southwestern Oregon. We released mountain quail in the Bennett Hills of south-central Idaho. We radio-marked and monitored a subsample of 58 quail and used them for a 2-part survival analysis. Cumulative survival probability was 0.23 ± 0.05 (SE) at 150 days post-release. We first examined an a priori hypothesis (model) that survival varied between the 2 distinct source populations. We found that source population did not explain variation in survival. This result suggests that wildlife managers have flexibility in selecting source populations for mountain quail translocation efforts. In a post hoc examination, we pooled the quail across source populations and evaluated differences in survival probabilities between sex and age classes. The most parsimonious model indicated that adult male survival was substantially less than survival rates of other mountain quail age and sex classes (i.e., interaction between sex and age). This result suggests that translocation success could benefit by translocating yearling males rather than adult males, perhaps because adult male breeding behavior results in vulnerability to predators

Journal of Wildlife Management

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii ; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ 2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground ( P  = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction ( P  ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Feral horse space use and genetic characteristics from fecal DNA

Feral horses ( Equus ferus caballus ) in the western United States are managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and United States Forest Service in designated areas on public lands with a goal of maintaining populations in balance with multiple uses of the landscape. Small, isolated populations can be at risk of extirpation from stochastic events and deleterious genetic effects resulting from inbreeding and reduced heterozygosity. The genetic diversity of feral horse herds is periodically monitored using blood or hair samples collected during management gathers (i.e., occasions when the herd is rounded up). We conducted a study to examine genetic characteristics of the feral horse population at the BLM Little Book Cliffs Herd Management Area (HMA) in Colorado, USA, using non-invasively collected fecal samples. Additionally, we explored whether genotypes could be used to document space use and potential sub-population development. We used a random sampling scheme, walking transects in sampling areas covering most of the HMA to find and collect fecal samples of all ages, except those that were deteriorating. We collected >1,800 fecal samples from across the study area in May, August, and October 2014. We then identified unique individuals using a suite of microsatellite loci. Our estimates of genetic diversity from fecal samples were higher than those reported from blood and hair samples taken during recent horse gathers, likely because our sample size and spatial distribution was larger. Genotypes revealed that some individuals were found only in certain parts of the study area and at a higher proportion than random; thus, they could be considered residents in those sampling areas. Using discriminant function analyses, we detected 5 genetic groups in the sample population, but these did not correspond to individuals in specific parts of the study area. Our results support the use of fecal DNA to augment direct observations of horse presence and could be used to detect habitat use and areas of high density. Non-invasive techniques such as fecal DNA sampling can help managers decide whether new individuals need to be translocated to a closed population to maintain genetic diversity without the human safety and animal welfare concerns associated with gathers and invasive techniques.

Colorado

Effects of elk herbivory on vegetation and nitrogen processes

We used 35-year and 4-year ungulate exclosures to determine the effects of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) herbivory on above-ground and below-ground production and soil fertility on the elk winter range in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA. We used paired grazed and ungrazed plots to evaluate ungulate herbivory effects in short and tall willow ( Salix spp.), aspen ( Populus spp.), and upland grass/shrub vegetation associations. We measured nitrogen (N) fluxes (litter deposition, fecal and urinary deposition from elk, movements of N by elk, N mineralization, soil N availability, elk consumption rates) within the elk winter, above-ground and below-ground N pools (herbaceous, shrub and root biomass, %N in plants, roots, and soil), and N fluxes on and off the elk winter range (seasonal movement of N by elk). Nitrogen mineralization and soil nitrate (NO 3 ) pools were reduced in the short willow community ( P = 0.07 and 0.10, respectively; n = 4 sites) in grazed plots, but not in the upland grass/shrub community or tall willow sites ( P >0.10). Annual growth of willows was reduced by 98% in grazed plots, relative to 35-year exclosures, and 66% relative to 4-year exclosures. Thus, height, canopy size, and litter biomass of willows were reduced, and N yield of willows was 64% less in grazed plots. We evaluated movement of N by elk among 6 major vegetation associations and found that elk grazed more and bedded less in willow vegetation association compared to mixed conifer, mesic meadow, and grassland/shrub associations ( P = 0.014, 0.001, and 0.026, respectively), suggesting that elk herbivory and movement led to a net loss of N in the willow vegetation association. Elk spent less total time in willows than mesic meadow association, yet they consumed large amounts of willow plant biomass. We recommend management of elk numbers and elk herbivory that takes into consideration impacts to N process function, as negative effects from current levels of herbivory were observed in ≥1 of 3 vegetation associations studied.

Colorado

Considerations for developing wolf harvesting regulations in the contiguous United States

A s gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) are removed from the federal Endangered Species List, management reverts to the states. Eventually most states will probably allow public wolf harvesting. Open seasons between about 1 November and 1 March accord more with basic wolf biology than during other times. Managers who consider wolf biology and public sensitivities, adapt public-taking regulations accordingly, and adjust harvest regulations as they learn will be best able to maximize the recreational value of wolf harvesting, minimize public animosity toward it, and meet their harvest objectives.

Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Minnesota, Mont

Spring-staging ecology of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese

A major part of the midcontinent greater white-fronted goose ( Anser albifrons ) population stages for several weeks in spring in the Rainwater Basin Area (RBA) of south-central Nebraska where substantial mortality from disease occurs periodically. Effective management of this population requires better data on use of habitat, vulnerability to disease, and the role of staging areas in migration and reproduction. We studied use of habitat, foods, nutrient dynamics, and effect of changes in agriculture on food availability and habitat needs in spring 1979-80. During daylight, geese were observed primarily in harvested cornfields (76%) and growing winter wheat (23%). Corn grain and winter wheat shoots composed 90 and 9%, respectively, of foods consumed by collected geese ( n = 42). Feeding activity did not vary among post-harvest cornfield treatments except that little feeding occurred ( P < 0.05) in moldboard-plowed fields (<1%). Fat content for all geese increased ( P ≤ 0.01) with Julian date; protein content increased ( P = 0.03) only among adult females, and there was no evidence ( P > 0.05) of temporal variation in calcium content. Adult geese storing 14.2 g of fat per day deposited approximately 582 g of fat between 22 February and 8 April. Energy requirements for thermal regulation were small compared with requirements for fat synthesis and probably had little effect on nutrient deposition. The 34,000 white-fronted geese present on the Harvard Marsh and Prairie Dog Marsh study areas in March 1980 probably used <20% of the corn available within a 5-km radius. We believe that midcontinent white-fronted geese arrive on Arctic breeding grounds with larger and less variable fat reserves than prior to modern agricultural development. We attribute this response to increased food availability on staging areas where the net effect of agricultural changes has been an increase in corn availability. Waterfowl managers can increase dispersion of geese and provide favorable foraging conditions by maintaining well-distributed wetland roosting habitat and by working with private landowners to ensure access to grain in the vicinity of wetlands.

Nebraska

Habitat use by nesting and brood rearing northern pintails on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

We studied habitat use by nesting and brood-rearing northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, 1991-93. We used a digital habitat map constructed from color infrared aerial photos to assign habitat types to nest and brood locations and estimate habitat availability. Sixty-nine percent of females nested on slough banks in highly saline, tidally influenced habitats where we observed few mammalian predators. Nesting pintails likely preferred slough banks because they were higher and well drained early in the nesting season. Radiomarked females selected moderately saline habitats that were only occasionally or rarely influenced by tides for brood rearing. Eighty percent of females that nested in saline habitats moved their broods to less saline habitats, and those that nested in preferred brood-rearing habitats never moved to more saline habitats to rear their broods. Managers should be aware that in coastal wetlands the proximity of good-quality nesting and brood rearing habitats is important, and the distribution of nesting pintails may not reflect the distribution of broods and vice versa.

Alaska

A collaborative approach to bridging the gap between wildlife managers and researchers

Although most wildlife professionals agree that science should inform wildlife management decisions, disconnect still exists between researchers and managers. If researchers are not striving to incorporate their findings into management decisions, support for research programs by managers can wane. If managers are not using research findings to inform management decisions, those decisions may be less effective or more vulnerable to legal challenges. Both of these situations can have negative consequences for wildlife conservation. We outline a collaborative research‐management approach to bridging the gap between wildlife managers and researchers. We describe differences in perspectives, perceptions, and priorities between managers and researchers; outline how and why the divide between researchers and managers has likely occurred and continues to grow; and present specific strategies and recommendations to foster stronger collaborations between managers and researchers. We advocate increased synergy between managers and researchers based on a shared vision of conservation and a collaborative structure that rewards researchers and managers. Most importantly, we suggest that relationships and communication between managers and researchers must be established early in research development and decision‐making processes, fostering the trust needed for collaboration. Institutions and agencies can facilitate these relationships by creating opportunities and incentives for integrating collaborative research into management decisions. We suggest this approach will strengthen ties between researchers and managers, increase relevance of research to management decisions, promote effectiveness of management decisions, reduce legal challenges, and ultimately produce positive, tangible, and lasting effects on wildlife conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Postbreeding movements and molting ecology of female gadwalls and mallards

The wing molt is an important annual life-history event that occurs in waterfowl and molt site selection can play an important role in determining survival. We tracked postbreeding movements of gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) females that bred in the Suisun Marsh (Suisun) of California, USA, to determine molt site selection and wing molt chronology. We attached backpack transmitters with global positioning system and global system for mobile communications (GPS-GSM) technology to female gadwalls and mallards within Suisun and tracked the birds following the breeding season during 2015–2018. We determined molt locations for 52 female gadwalls and 112 female mallards. Thirty of the marked gadwall females selected 2 regions within southern Oregon-northeastern California (SONEC) to undergo molt; 16 molted in the Upper Klamath Basin (southern OR) and 14 in the Lower Klamath Basin (northeastern CA). A large portion of female mallards molted in Suisun ( n = 34) and the Sacramento Valley in California ( n = 31) but also used the Upper Klamath Basin ( n = 13), Lower Klamath Basin ( n = 12), and the Yolo–Delta region in California ( n = 12). On average, gadwalls departed Suisun on 30 July (±17.82 days [SD]), and mallards departed on 24 July (±22.69 days). Mean start date of molt for each species was similar: 27 August (±16.09 days) for gadwalls and 26 August (±21.03 days) for mallards. Molt end date was analogous for each species as well. Molt ended on average 1 October (±15.52 days) for gadwalls and on 5 October (±18.34 days) for mallards. Gadwalls and mallards showed intraspecific differences in average molt start and end date within the 3 main geographical zones: Suisun, Central Valley of California (Central Valley), and SONEC. Mean duration of wing molt for gadwalls was 34.72± 8.62 days and 41.09 ± 12.54 days for mallards. Both species primarily selected permanent marsh to undergo wing molt (gadwalls = 90.4%, mallards = 63.4%). Conservation and active management of these high-use molting areas used by California's primary breeding waterfowl species could enhance postbreeding survival, leading to increased breeding waterfowl populations.

California, Nevada, Oregon

Factors determining Pochard nest predation along a wetland gradient

Waterfowl management on breeding grounds focuses on improving nest success, but few studies have compared waterfowl nest success and factors affecting nest survival along a wetland gradient and simultaneously identified nest predators. We monitored nests (n = 195) of common pochards ( Aythya ferina ) in Trebon Basin Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic, during 1999–2002. Daily nest survival rates (DSRs, logistic-exposure) declined from island (0.985, 95% confidence interval, 0.978–0.991) to overwater (0.962, 0.950–0.971) and terrestrial (0.844, 0.759–0.904) nests. The most parsimonious model for DSRs included habitat class (DSRs: island > overwater > terrestrial) and nest visibility. Nest survival was improved by reduced nest visibility, increased water depth, and increased distance from the nest to habitat edge in littoral habitats. On islands, nest success increased with advancing date and increased distance to open water. A model of constant nest survival best explained the data for terrestrial nests. There were no observer effects on DSRs in any habitat. In 2003, artificial nests ( n = 180; 120 contained a wax-filled egg) were deployed on study plots. The model that best explained variation in DSRs for artificial nests included only 1 variable: habitat class (DSRs: island ≥ overwater > terrestrial). Mammalian predation of artificial nests (by foxes [ Vulpes vulpes ] and martens [ Martes spp.]) was more likely in terrestrial habitats than in littoral habitats or on islands. By contrast, corvids and marsh harriers ( Circus aeruginosus ) prevailed among predators of overwater and island nests. Our data indicate that artificial islands and wide strips of littoral vegetation may represent secure breeding habitats for waterfowl because those habitats allow nests to be placed in areas that are not accessible to, or that are avoided by, mammalian predators. Management actions should be aimed at preserving these habitats. This, along with creation of new artificial islands, could help to enhance breeding productivity of pochards and possibly other waterfowl species inhabiting man-made ponds.

Trebon Basin Biosphere Reserve

Moist-soil seed abundance in managed wetlands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Managed moist-soil units support early succession herbaceous vegetation that produces seeds, tubers, and other plant parts used by waterfowl in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV), USA. We conducted a stratified multi-stage sample survey on state and federal lands in the MAV of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri during autumns 2002?2004 to generate a contemporary estimate of combined dry mass of seeds and tubers (herein seed abundance) in managed moist-soil units for use by the Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture (LMVJV) of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We also examined variation in mean seed abundance among moist-soil units in 2003 and 2004 in relation to management intensity (active or passive), soil pH and nutrient levels, proportional occurrence of plant life-forms (e.g., grass, flatsedge, and forb; vine; woody plants), and unit area. Estimates of mean seed abundance were similar in 2002 (X over bar = 537.1 kg/ha, SE = 100.1) and 2004 (X over bar = 555.2 kg/ha, SE = 105.2) but 35?40% less in 2003 (X over bar = 396.8 kg/ha, SE = 116.1). Averaged over years, seed abundance was 496.3 kg/ha (SE = 62.0; CV = 12.5%). Multiple regression analysis indicated seed abundance varied among moist-soil units inversely with proportional occurrence of woody vegetation and unit area and was greater in actively than passively managed units (R2adj = 0.37). Species of early succession grasses occurred more frequently in actively than passively managed units (P < 0.09), whereas mid- and late-succession plants occurred more often in passively managed units (P < 0.02). We recommend the LMVJV consider 556 kg/ha as a measure of seed abundance for use in estimating carrying capacity in managed moist-soil units on public lands in the MAV. We recommend active management of moist-soil units to achieve maximum potential seed production and further research to determine recovery rates of seeds of various sizes from core samples and the relationship between seed abundance and unit area.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Journal news

Statistical power (and conversely, Type II error) is often ignored by biologists. Power is important to consider in the design of studies, to ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address a hypothesis under examination. Deter- mining appropriate sample size when designing experiments or calculating power for a statistical test requires an investigator to consider the importance of making incorrect conclusions about the experimental hypothesis and the biological importance of the alternative hypothesis (or the biological effect size researchers are attempting to measure). Poorly designed studies frequently provide results that are at best equivocal, and do little to advance science or assist in decision making. Completed studies that fail to reject Ho should consider power and the related probability of a Type II error in the interpretation of results, particularly when implicit or explicit acceptance of Ho is used to support a biological hypothesis or management decision. Investigators must consider the biological question they wish to answer (Tacha et al. 1982) and assess power on the basis of biologically significant differences (Taylor and Gerrodette 1993). Power calculations are somewhat subjective, because the author must specify either f or the minimum difference that is biologically important. Biologists may have different ideas about what values are appropriate. While determining biological significance is of central importance in power analysis, it is also an issue of importance in wildlife science. Procedures, references, and computer software to compute power are accessible; therefore, authors should consider power. We welcome comments or suggestions on this subject.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Population dynamics of the threatened Oregon spotted frog before and after drought mitigation

Amphibians are among the most sensitive taxa to climate change, and species inhabiting arid and semiarid landscapes at the extremes of their range are especially vulnerable to drought. The Jack Creek, Oregon, USA, population of Oregon spotted frogs ( Rana pretiosa ) faces unique challenges because it occupies the highest elevation site in the species' extant range and one that has been transformed by loss of American beavers ( Castor canadensis ), which historically maintained open water. We evaluated the effects of drought mitigation (addition of excavated ponds) on relationships between local and regional water availability, inactive legacy beaver dams, and Oregon spotted frog population dynamics in the Jack Creek system. We conducted egg mass surveys and capture-mark-recapture sampling at a treatment reach with excavated ponds and 3 reference reaches over 13 years; surveys spanned a period before and after pond excavation at the treatment and 1 primary comparison reference reach. We analyzed data using a combination of robust design capture-mark-recapture estimators and generalized linear mixed models to characterize population dynamics. Adult Oregon spotted frog survival was approximately 19.5% higher at the treatment reach than the primary reference reach during the study period. Annual survival was most strongly associated with late summer vegetation greenness, a proxy for water availability, and males had higher survival than females. Among the 4 study reaches, the treatment reach consistently had higher late summer vegetation greenness, and the hydrology functioned more independently of regional precipitation patterns relative to the reference reaches; however, these dynamics were not linked to pond excavation. Breeding was concentrated in 2 legacy beaver ponds that were deepened by excavation during the study compared to an unexcavated beaver pond, 2 excavated ponds without legacy beaver dams, and 9 reference ponds. These results point to the benefit of enhancing existing beaver structures and indicate that management actions aimed at maintaining surface water for breeding in spring and saturated soils and ponded water for adults in late summer would benefit this unique population of Oregon spotted frogs in the face of drought.

Oregon

Does presence of permanent fresh water affect recruitment in prairie-nesting dabbling ducks?

In the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North Dakota, USA, American mink ( Mustela vison ) are a major predator of ducklings. Mink populations plummet during severe droughts, but some mink survive where permanent fresh water is available. In 1992–1993, we evaluated whether development of a permanent water body, the 125-km McClusky Canal (MC), had affected survival of gadwall ( Anas strepera ) and mallard ( A. platyrhynchos ) broods and ducklings in surrounding wetland complexes. Twelve of 25 radiomarked gadwall and mallard hens experienced total brood loss, and 148 of 199 radiomarked ducklings from 58 broods died by day 30. Gadwall broods ( n = 18 radiomarked hens) survived to 30 days at a lower rate (0.52) than predicted for similar areas in the region with limited permanent fresh water (0.85; P = 0.009). Observed ( n = 162 radiomarked ducklings from 48 broods) survival rates also were lower than predicted for gadwall ducklings 0–7 days old (0.42 vs. 0.60; P < 0.001) and 8–30 days old (0.41 vs. 0.80; P < 0.001). We attempted to include mallards in models constructed to predict brood and duckling survival rates in the Koenig Study Area (KSA), but data were too sparse. Rates of survival to 30 days for gadwall and mallard ducklings declined from an estimated 0.83 and 0.68 in 1976–1981 (Lokemoen et al. 1990), when the MC was first filling with water, to 0.36 and 0.31 (adjusted for radiotransmitter effects) in 1992–1993 after the MC had become a permanent freshwater body. Estimated gadwall recruitment rate (females fledged per hen) during 1992–1993 was 0.5, <50% of the estimated recruitment rate in 1976–1981. Of 130 radiomarked ducklings (both species) for which we determined cause of death, 114 mortalities were attributed to predation; at least 65% of 62 deaths in which the predator type could be discerned were caused by mink. Environmental planners and waterfowl managers should be aware of potential risks to waterfowl production from development of permanent freshwater bodies in prairie pothole landscapes and may wish to refine duck productivity models to consider negative effects of permanent water on duckling survival.

North Dakota